Stat of the Day, 12th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2013

Our 100/30 shot Harristown had little/no friends in the market yesterday as he drifted out to a race SP of 5/1. He made an absolute mockery of those odds under a good, patient ride from Kielan Woods, who kept him handy without really exerting him. He took the lead between the last two hurdles, set off for home and was uncatchable, winning by a good 9 lengths.

He could probably have won by far more had he wanted to, but it was a welcome 5pt boost to the bank, which I aim to build on this evening in the...

8.20 Wolverhampton

Where I've taken 3/1 BOG with BetVictor about Marco Botti's filly More Aspen.

Marco has a good recent record with his more-fancied runners here at Wolverhampton and what I mean by more fancied are the ones running at odds of 6/1 or under. In fact in the 2011/13 period he has had 47 winners from his 138 runners in that price bracket here at Wolverhampton: a 34.1% strikerate and level stakes profits of 46.2pts are the equivalent of 33.5% of all stakes put down.

Without restricting the odds parameters too far (and inviting any accusations of backfitting!), if we disregard those who ran below 13/8 (we wouldn't pick those for SotD anyway!) the figures evolve to 34/117, a slightly lower strike rate of 29.1%, but an increased ROI of 36.4% courtesy of a 42.6pts profit.

Marco actually runs two horses here this evening: 9/2 shot Tez has a decent enough chance on his handicap debut in the 6.20 race, but I'm siding with the later runner: More Aspen.

More Aspen also fits the bill for another subsection of horses that I like to back, the ones i dub the "Back To Form" horses. Regular readers are probably bored of reading the rules of this microsystem by now, but just in case...

The horse should have won last time out and within the last month. That win should have come after a string (minimum of 3) of unplaced efforts and will be fancied enough by the market to be sent off at 6/1 or under.

More Aspen's form line reads 5551, three modest efforts in 6f maidens, before scoring on her nursery debut here over course and distance 22 days ago on her first step up to this 7f trip. She won pretty cosily that day and the manner in which she ran on to close the race out suggested to me that a 6lb rise wouldn't be enough to stop her today.

Horses fitting this "Back To Form" profile on the all-weather have 48 of 158 races (30.4%) this year, recording level stakes profits of 57.3pts, or 36.2% of stakes. the figures for Wolverhampton alone are 16/52 = 30.8% SR and 16.75pts (+32.2% ROI) profit.

If we imposed a fairly restrictive (but similar to our usual SotD range) set of odds ie 5/2 to 6/1, the 2013 results are as follows:
All UK A/W Meetings: 30 winners from 107 = a 28% strike rate yielding 62pts profit for an ROI of 57.97%
Just Wolverhampton: 11 winners from 30 = a 36.67% strike rate yielding 25.85pts profit for an ROI of 86.17%

As at the top, I'm on More Aspen at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but those odds are quite widely available, so my advice would be to...

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Stat of the Day, 9th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2013

I hold my hands up and say I got it wrong yesterday. I was quite pleased to have got 4/1 BOG about Arabian Beauty, but the race summary says all you need to know after she eventually came home 8th of 10 runners, a good 11 lengths off the pace.

The summary said: "Dwelt raced wide mid-didivision, ridden and no impression over 2f out, eased final furlong opened 5/1 touched 7/1" I've left the Sporting Life's spelling error in there, because I'm churlish like that sometimes! 😀

It's only a 30 mile drive down the A46 for today's race, the...

3.00 Nottingham

A track which has been particularly kind to trainer Marco Botti and his followers over the years. In fact blindly backing all his runners priced at 12/1 or under at this track since 2008 would have given you a healthy profit.

He has, admittedly, only sent 50 runners here in that time, but when nine of them (18%) turn out to be winners that generate 20.26pts profit in the process, that's a lovely 40.5% return on your money. A tenner on each would have grown your £500 total stakes to almost £703, not bad at all off a handful of bets each year.

Marco has sent more runners here in recent years, though, it should be said and his record for the 2011/13 period reads six winners from thirty, a very handy 20% strike rate responsible for 13.73 pts (+45.77% ROI) profits, which automatically sparks my interest whenever I see any of runners declared to run here.

And in true SotD style, Mr Botti has only one entrant here today, the lightly raced Exceed And Excel colt Exceeder who makes his handicap bow today after three promising runner-up finishes and a far from poor 4th place last time out at Sandown. In fact, he came within a whisker of breaking his maiden tag on debut here at Nottingham when beaten very late on some four months ago.

That 4th placed finish at Sandown a month ago was in a race won by Outer Space, who was subsequently the runner-up as 3/1 favourite in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot last Saturday, so it wasn't a disgrace to beaten by that one and Exceeder had led until deep into the final furlong.

An opening mark of 75 could prove to be quite lenient for this one who cost 100,000 Gns at the Breeze-Up sales and it is expected that the 5f trip in handicap company should do the trick today.

I've no concerns about his being his handicap debut either, as Marco Botti's handicap debutants also show a profit if backing them blindly at 12/1 or under since 2008. In fact, had you backed them all, you'd have landed yourself 13 winners from 62 bets, a strike rate of 21% rewarding you to the tune of 39.7pts profit or £6.40 profit on every £10 staked, if you prefer.

The stats for 2012/13 stand at 7 winners from 34 (20.6% SR) for 23.23pts (+38.3% ROI) profit with a 3/4 for 19.17pts record here at Nottingham.

I've placed my 1pt win bet on Exceeder at 4/1 with Paddy Power, but a few other firms (including Bet365, BetVictor and William Hill) are also at that price too, so why not..

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Nottingham

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Here is today's racecard!


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Stat of the Day, 30th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 30/01/13

Stat of the Day: 30/01/13

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2013

The less said about yesterday, the better! A very poor performance from our selection as he trailed home last of thirteen.

We're sticking to the all-weather again today and I'm looking to a man in form to help me regain mine! The race in question is a 10 furlong, Class 5 handicap and we're currently expecting nine runners to go to post for the...

5.20 Kempton

Marco Botti's stats at Kempton throughout his career have always been more than respectable: a 16% strike rate and a profit on stakes of almost 20% from a decent sample size of 341 runners. However, his runners are in a rich vein of form here at Kempton of late. In fact, his last five representatives have all won and he now looks to find a sixth Kempton winner inside eleven days.

Marco's sole entry today comes in the shape of Canary Wharf, an interesting prospect in today's open-looking contest.

This horse was placed twice in four Irish runs for AP O'Brien, before switching to Mr Botti's yard, where he won on debut. He has run three times since then, initially off a mark of 79 and it's fair to say he hasn't set the world on fire.

However, the yard is in great form and Canary Wharf now competes off a handy-looking 73 and is dropped down a class to Class 5 today and these changes could very well make the difference to restart his progress.

Adam Kirby is on board today and he's riding well at present and was also in the saddle for Canary Wharf's afore-mentioned victory at Wolverhampton. Adam has also been successful in 7 of his last 17 rides for the Botti yard.

It is a fairly open race today and the sensible/safe option is going to be the E/W route, so I'm taking a 0.5pt E/W bet on Canary Wharf at 6/1 BOG with Corals, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Kempton

Trainers Stats: 30th Jan 2013

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