Tag Archive for: Marco Ghiani

Evaluating Jockeys by Percentage of Rivals Beaten

/in /by

In this article I will put 35 jockeys under the microscope, writes Dave Renham. These are the riders with the most rides per year, on average, over the past four years. The data has been taken from UK flat racing (turf and all-weather (AW) and the full years 2021 to 2024.

Introduction

I have further limited the findings to mounts sent off at an Industry Starting Price (ISP) of 20/1 or shorter, in order to try to eliminate most of the horses that had little or no chance; and, further, because very big-priced winners tend to skew profit figures.

For this piece I will primarily examine the data using ‘Percentage of Rivals Beaten’, although I also plan to look at strike rates and A/E indices. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a calculation based on a horse's finishing position in relation to field size. It makes key distinctions between a horse finishing, say, fourth in a seven-horse race (PRB 50%, three rivals beaten, beaten by three rivals) and finishing fourth in a sixteen-horse race (PRB 80%, twelve rivals beaten, beaten by three rivals). We express the PRB as a number between 0 and 1. So, in the examples above, 50% is 0.5 and 80% is 0.8.

As racing researchers we can often be blighted by small sample sizes when analysing, for example, win strike rates. Hence, there is a strong argument to suggest that PRB figures are a more accurate metric, simply because they make datasets bigger: they award a sliding performance score to every runner in every race, whereas win strike rate only awards the winner a score with all other finishers getting zero.

Today's offering has a slightly different flow from usual I will be writing it "as I go along". In other words, I’m sharing the research and my thinking process stage by stage, rather than doing all the research and then writing about my findings afterwards. Thus, my main commentary will appear to be in the present tense. If that makes sense, let's crack on (and if it doesn't, it soon will!)

Top Jockeys' PRB: Overall

I will start by sharing the average PRB figures for each of the 35 jockeys over this four-year period. They are ordered alphabetically across two graphs:

 

 

 

 

To provide a benchmark, the average figure when combining these jockeys was halfway between 0.58 and 0.59, so 0.585 to be precise. Oisin Murphy has the highest PRB figure, 0.64, followed by five jockeys tied on 0.62 – William Buick, James Doyle, Rob Havlin, Jack Mitchell and Danny Tudhope. Tom Eaves, Cam Hardie and Andrew Mullen have the joint lowest PRB figure of 0.54.

It should be noted that all riders in this sample are above the 0.5 PRB benchmark and so even the lowest in the cohort are out-performing the norm.

Top Jockeys' PRB: ISP 6/4 or shorter

Although I have restricted qualifiers to those priced 20/1 or shorter, there are clearly some jockeys who have more rides at shorter prices than others. Hence, I am assuming that jockeys should have higher PRBs because of this. To help analyse and potentially confirm this hypothesis I am going to look at the percentage of rides each jockey had with horses priced 6/4 or shorter. The table shows the splits:

 

 

There is a huge variance here, from William Buick with more than 13% of his rides sent off 6/4 or shorter, to Cam Hardie at less than 1%. Of the six jockeys with the highest average PRBs I noted earlier, five of them were in the top six for the highest percentage of rides (highlighted in blue in this table). Therefore, we can see there is a strong looking correlation between price and PRB, as we should expect.

Top Jockeys' PRB: ISP 12/1 to 20/1

It makes sense next to look at the percentage of rides each jockey had when the qualifiers were bigger prices in order to consider both ends of the price spectrum. Therefore, below is a table showing these percentages when considering percentage of rides from runners priced 12/1 to 20/1.

 

 

The three jockeys with the highest percentages (shown in blue) are the jockeys who had the lowest overall PRB figures shared earlier, namely Tom Eaves, Cam Hardie and Andrew Mullen: this is further evidence of clear positive correlation. Also, the lowest four percentages in this group are for Messrs Buick, Murphy, Doyle (James) and Mitchell.

At this early point in my research I am starting to appreciate that despite the fact that PRB is a really useful metric, for this type of research the price of runners is also very important and can significantly sway the balance one way or the other. Hence, the market will be factored in for the remainder of what follows.

Top Jockeys' PRB by Price Range

Having established the importance of the starting price, I have decided to calculate PRBs for different price bands for all 35 jockeys. The brackets I am going to use are again based on Industry Starting Price and they are as follows:

 

 

In the table below I have collated the PRBs for each jockey for each price band. The average figures for all jockeys in the list are shown in blue at the bottom of each column, and I have highlighted any PRB that is at least 3% above the average or at least 3% below the average. The 3% ‘above group’ (positive) is highlighted in green, the 3% ‘below group’ (negative) is in red.

 

 

The colour coding helps to highlight jockeys that seem to perform above the norm and those that may have performed below what might be expected within each price band. There were three jockeys who obtained two ‘greens’: Robert Havlin, Clifford Lee and Kieran O’Neill. And there were four jockeys who obtained two or more ‘reds’: William Buick (3), Holly Doyle (2), Joe Fanning (3) and Rob Hornby (2).

 

Top Jockeys' PRB: All-Round Performance

I am thinking that another way we could analyse these data is to simply add up each jockey’s six PRB figures in the above table and compare them.  Below, then, are the riders with the top ten combined PRB figures when adding the six values together:

 

 

It could be argued that these are the top 10 performing jockeys from my original list of 35 as their totals are based on the overall performance across different price ranges. From looking at these findings I would be happy to see one of these ten riding a horse I am keen to back. Rab Havlin, who has consistently shown positive figures in the research to date, tops the list on a combined total of 3.99. (0.88 + 0.76 + 0.68 + 0.65 + 0.55 + 0.47).

Next, here are the lowest ten combined PRB totals from our sample of the top 35 riders:

 

 

As can be seen, we are talking small margins here so despite these ten being at the bottom we know that they are all still top-notch riders. However, in terms of PRB figures within certain price bands, they have performed with slightly less success than the rest of the jockeys in this sample.

To complete the set here are the remaining jockeys (positioned 11th to 25th) with their PRB totals. Due to the bigger group, I am using a table rather than a graph:

 

 

Top Jockeys: Other Metrics

I stated earlier that PRBs are arguably the most accurate metric but it always prudent to consider other metrics where possible in order to attain a stronger 'feel' for the data.

We know that finishing fifth in an 18-runner race will produce a better PRB figure than finishing eighth in the same the race, but usually finishing fifth does not make punters money (unless those generous bookie types are offering extra places).

At this point, then, I am thinking about the key battles in terms of finishing first rather than second and, therefore, I am going to share the wins, runs, strike rate, profit/loss and A/E indices for all 35 jockeys. As with the PRB data this does not include rides on horses priced over 20/1 ISP. Profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair SP less 2% commission. The A/E indices are based on Betfair prices and any figure above 1.00 has been coloured in green:

 

 

Somewhat surprisingly, 18 of the 35 jockeys have secured a profit which is impressive considering there are not any really big BSP winners to skew the returns. In fact, the highest winning BSP was 46.0 and there were only three winners in total above BSP 40.0, and only 23 above BSP 30.0 (out of total of nearly 12,000 winners).

Rossa Ryan, Saffie Osborne and William Buick have the best ROI%s (above 7%), and they each have one of the top five A/E indices. Impressively, Ryan has made a blind profit in each of the four years, Osborne and Buick matching that feat in three of the four years surveyed. There are two jockeys that made a loss in each of the four years, namely David Allan and James Doyle.

Conclusions

All this is helping me, and hopefully you, to start building a more complete picture of jockey performance; or, at least, the performance of these 35 top riders. The PRB data have given us an extra layer on top of the usual metrics we focus on. However, it is becoming clear to me that for this type of jockey-based research we do need other metrics (win percentage, profits, A/E indices, etc) to bring betting utility to the party.

I am just starting to expand the jockey PRB research into other areas and there is plenty more to share; so I have come to the realisation that this article will spawn a second piece. Thus, it is probably too early to draw any key conclusions from the research so far as there are more pieces of the puzzle to add.

However, next week I have a Royal Ascot article ready to go, so it affords me a little extra time to do further digging for part two of this jockey deep dive!

- DR

Geegeez Jockeys Looking Forward to the 2022 Flat Season

/in /by

It was a perfect day for it. Under a warm bright sky lightly doodled with cloud, a fair smattering of racing's hardcore convened on Newmarket's Rowley Mile to greet the awakening flat season. The mood was relaxed, sleepy perhaps, as the overture to the 2022 Classic campaign played out across the Suffolk sward.

I was among the gathering, there - like most - to welcome back a dear old friend. And, more specifically, to catch up with two dear young friends, David Probert and Marco Ghiani. Between them, in their geegeez-liveried breeches they've amassed 826 wins, and counting, in Britain: David with 679 since May 2016 and Marco with 147 since July 2020.

As well as being sponsored by this website, they have another thing in common: both have been crowned Champion Apprentice. David's title was in 2008, jointly with William Buick, with whom he looks set to contest the jockeys' championship this year; Marco's was last year, and followed on from his All Weather Champion Apprentice title, the first rider, we think, to win both awards.

Remarkably, that's not the last of the silverware these two have aggregated, as David holds a 20 winner edge over his nearest rival in the All Weather Jockeys' Championship, which draws to a close this Good Friday at Newcastle. His lead is unassailable and the championship is due reward for one of the hardest-working and most professional pilots in the peloton. Given that this is a cohort defined by its consistent endeavour and professionalism, to stand apart is a difficult task indeed.

The switch to agent Neil Allan has been a major catalyst in David's ascendant profile over the past five years when, in 2016 after his lowest annual total since 2008 (60 winners), he has since come home in front 94, 102, 112, 98 (Covid), and last year a whopping 170 times. With 55 on the board already in 2022, David is poised to challenge his own high score once more.

Asked if such a hectic riding schedule has allowed time to reflect and enjoy, he conceded, "it's been a bit manic, but with only riding one meeting a day you get a little time to yourself. It has sunk in a little bit, and I'm delighted with the achievement. I've usually been thereabouts through the winter, finishing second a couple of times, and I was lucky enough to get a good lead early on, which I've been able to maintain. I don't have to share this one either!"

With fourteen years having passed since his Apprentice title, Probert's latest accolade is testament to that aforementioned graft mentality and to the support of Allan and a growing rolodex of trainers large and small. For a quietly spoken man based away from the racing heartlands of Newmarket and Middleham, it's a brilliant achievement.

Although it feels almost churlish to move on to the turf flat season without due reflection on the fruits of the winter passed, such is the hemispheric nature of the sport. I ask about aspirations for the turf and the response is immediate and unequivocal. "I want to ride better horses. I've got a few chances this year with the likes of Sandrine [as short as 14/1 for the 1000 Guineas], who looks really well and has filled out since last year. She did a good piece of work over a mile the other day so we're very hopeful she'll stay the Guineas trip. She's going to go straight there. And there's a few nice three-year-olds coming through, too."

As we were speaking, the current champion jockey, Oisin Murphy, was part of a convoy including Dominic Ffrench Davis and Gay Kelleway en route to Poland on a mercy mission. His absence from defending his title has been well publicised but the implications in terms of riding plans at Andrew Balding's Kingsclere stables, provider of a sizeable chunk of the champ's total in recent seasons, less so. "Being a part of that yard has always been good and given me plenty of winners. I think this year I'll ride the majority, with some of the nicer horses shared out between myself, Rob [Hornby] and Jason [Watson]. Obviously, things change so we'll just have to play it by ear."

And what about the Flat Jockeys' Championship? "It's a dream. To do that, it's all about doubles and trebles and getting a good book of rides. As long as I can ride some good ones along the way I'll be happy." As short as 8/1 to win the title, it could be more realistic than the average dream.

Away from the All Weather Championships, I was keen to ask David about a few other issues. Firstly, how the new surface at Southwell is riding. "It's getting better all the time", he relates. "At the beginning, I think they maybe didn't have the right equipment for the new tapeta 10 surface and were relying on the old fibresand harrows. It wasn't binding as well as they'd hoped to begin with, so it was riding very 'dead' and tacky compared to Wolverhampton where they have a more established tapeta surface. But now it seems to be riding really well."

Also, how is the weighing room since Covid? "It's changed. We had individual booths during Covid and now the tracks are redeveloping the facilities to be mindful of safeguarding requirements for younger jockeys, and also to provide better changing rooms for the women riders. I think Covid has actually forced these changes through a little bit where these things might not have got done for a few more years, so that's been really positive."

*

As we are chatting, a familiar grin emerges from the weighing room. It is the perma-smiling Marco Ghiani in customary happy mode. He exchanges a greeting with David and then sits down to share a few thoughts on his own story so far.

Since joining Stuart Williams as an apprentice in 2019, Marco has finished in front 171 times from 1096 rides at time of writing, a fantastic career win rate of 15.6%. After a winless 2018, albeit from only 11 rides, 2019 saw the Sardinian score 22 times from 131 rides, starting with his first mount of the year, Lunar Deity, at 33/1. 2020 was blighted for everyone by Covid, and apprentice jockeys found opportunities severely restricted. But, thereafter, it's been a relentless tale of success for Marco, capped by that memorable Apprentice Championship double. Now he's riding off level weights with the big boys and relishing the prospect.

This time last year, Marco was about to be crowned Champion All Weather Apprentice. Recalling that period, he says, "It was really good but also very scary, because I only won by four and I was always looking over my shoulder. At that time, I was given 21 days off and Laura [Pearson] took three weeks off, and we still managed to be first and second. If she didn't take the time off maybe she would have been closer still. It felt amazing. I couldn't ride a winner the year before but after Christmas it started really picking up."

As already touched upon, being a jockey offers little time for celebration with the turf season following hard on the heels of its all-weather twin. And, after a quiet enough start, Marco was at it again, racking up 51 winners, 16 clear of the next best. The undisputed highlight was, of course, Real World's incredible near five length win in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.

"I didn't expect it", remarks Ghiani, mirroring the view of most punters given the 18/1 at which he was returned. "He was very well handicapped, because I was carrying only eight stone six. He'd been running in Meydan but not showing that much. I rode him the day before in his work, and he was so laid back; and after, he was blowing that hard, I thought he'd probably need the race. But he showed a really good attitude, and obviously progressed all season. He's the best horse I've sat on, so far."

A certain other Italian, now in the veteran stage of his career but riding as well as ever, took over aboard Real World for a Group 2 triumph at Longchamp before a second G2 score, this time in Meydan under Danny Tudhope. Then followed a couple of relatively lacklustre efforts on the dirt in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup. Marco remains hopeful of getting back on top when Real World reverts to British turf action, but he acknowledges that may not now be so easy.

Ascot was Marco's happy place last term and, a couple of months later, he was back there on British Champions' Day to receive his Champion Apprentice title; and this time - with Covid's spectre diminishing - his family were there to witness it.

Also in 2021, Marco's son, Louis, was born, his dad just 22 at the time. "I think it really helped me, to concentrate more on the job rather than going out or doing other things. And he's made me very happy", says the clearly content young father. Asked about plans for a brother or sister for Louis, the smile broadens still further in spite of a firm rebuttal, for the time being at least.

Now sights are fixed firmly forward: he'll be riding freelance this year, but with a retained jockey position for prominent owner Ahmad al Shaikh, whose Khalifa Sat was second in the 2020 Derby. Ghiani is excited about the ride on Hoo Ya Mal in the Craven as the starting point of that new relationship.

Elsewhere, he has been riding out for George Scott, William Knight, Marco Botti, Ed Dunlop, Owen Burrows, Roger Varian and Charlie Hills, as well as old boss and mentor, Stuart Williams. So, he's keeping busy in good company and hoping the opportunities will follow as the season progresses. "This season is about getting more experience, and more contacts, and hopefully winning some more big races."

Both Marco and David are striding boldly into the new season with every chance of it being a memorable one. All of us at geegeez.co.uk wish them the very best of luck.