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Stat of the Day, 12th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2015

The recent softening of conditions has led to a spate of hold-up horses not being able to reel the leaders back in, but the opposite happened to us on Saturday, where it could be argued that our runner hit the front too soon.

Gracious John was headed just inside the final furlong and although he stuck to the task and kept on, he didn't have the pace to go with the two that passed him and we had to settle for a third placed finish at 11/4.

More Flat action on Monday, via the...

5.00 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

A Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m2f, where Marcus Tregoning's Thames Knight could offer some real value at 7/1 BOG, as he comes here in great form having won back to back handicaps over this trip at Bath in August (1 on good to soft), before finishing 3rd at Goodwood over 1m3f last time out. He was on the wrong side of the track that day as the two ahead of him raced on the opposite (and evidently quicker!) side of the track.

Marcus Tregoning has been profitable to back blindly on the Flat for the last eight seasons with his 142 winners from 1023 runners providing a 13.9% strike rate and level stakes profits of 164.4pts at an ROI of 16.1% : excellent figures for such a large data-set, with his handicappers winning 86 of 496 (17.3% SR) for 123.8pts (25% ROI).

Of those 496 handicappers...

  • those running over trips of 1m to 1m3f are 43/266 (16.2% SR) for 118.4pts (+25% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 46/242 (17.6% SR) for 75.4pts (+28.8% ROI)
  • in 3yo only races, they are 29/180 (16.1% SR) for 69.8pts (+38.8% ROI)
  • geldings are 22/153 (14.4% SR) for 58pts (+37.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 27/125 (21.6% SR) for 51.3pts (+41% ROI)

Now Marcus has four runners out today, but with three of them off to Salisbury, Thames Knight is the yard's sole representative here today and on the occasions when Marcus has only had one runner at a track since the start of 2010, he has bagged 96 winners from 650 (14.8% SR) runners for profits of 164pts (+25.3% ROI) and in Flat handicaps, those numbers improve to 42 winners from 240 (17.5% SR) for 61.6pts (+25.7% ROI).

Of those 240 handicappers...

  • runners over 1m to 1m3f are 22/129 (17.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+48.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 16/60 (26.7% SR) for 50.6pts (+84.4% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners at 1m to 1m3f are 7/33 (21.2% SR) for 18.1pts (+54.9% ROI)

The 7/1 BOG about Thames Knight is available at Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor and Boylesports and you can take your pick of the bookies, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2015

The recent softening of conditions has led to a spate of hold-up horses not being able to reel the leaders back in, but the opposite happened to us on Saturday, where it could be argued that our runner hit the front too soon.

Gracious John was headed just inside the final furlong and although he stuck to the task and kept on, he didn't have the pace to go with the two that passed him and we had to settle for a third placed finish at 11/4.

More Flat action on Monday, via the...

5.00 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

A Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m2f, where Marcus Tregoning's Thames Knight could offer some real value at 7/1 BOG, as he comes here in great form having won back to back handicaps over this trip at Bath in August (1 on good to soft), before finishing 3rd at Goodwood over 1m3f last time out. He was on the wrong side of the track that day as the two ahead of him raced on the opposite (and evidently quicker!) side of the track.

Marcus Tregoning has been profitable to back blindly on the Flat for the last eight seasons with his 142 winners from 1023 runners providing a 13.9% strike rate and level stakes profits of 164.4pts at an ROI of 16.1% : excellent figures for such a large data-set, with his handicappers winning 86 of 496 (17.3% SR) for 123.8pts (25% ROI).

Of those 496 handicappers...

  • those running over trips of 1m to 1m3f are 43/266 (16.2% SR) for 118.4pts (+25% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 46/242 (17.6% SR) for 75.4pts (+28.8% ROI)
  • in 3yo only races, they are 29/180 (16.1% SR) for 69.8pts (+38.8% ROI)
  • geldings are 22/153 (14.4% SR) for 58pts (+37.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 27/125 (21.6% SR) for 51.3pts (+41% ROI)

Now Marcus has four runners out today, but with three of them off to Salisbury, Thames Knight is the yard's sole representative here today and on the occasions when Marcus has only had one runner at a track since the start of 2010, he has bagged 96 winners from 650 (14.8% SR) runners for profits of 164pts (+25.3% ROI) and in Flat handicaps, those numbers improve to 42 winners from 240 (17.5% SR) for 61.6pts (+25.7% ROI).

Of those 240 handicappers...

  • runners over 1m to 1m3f are 22/129 (17.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+48.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 16/60 (26.7% SR) for 50.6pts (+84.4% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners at 1m to 1m3f are 7/33 (21.2% SR) for 18.1pts (+54.9% ROI)

The 7/1 BOG about Thames Knight is available at Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor and Boylesports and you can take your pick of the bookies, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2015

Wow! That was a close call on Saturday, wasn't it?

Don't get me wrong, it was a welcome win after the recent spell of poor form/luck/what have you, but Chicadoro certainly didn't do much for my nerves at Haydock.

She got out quickly and made all under an enterprising ride from Oisin Murphy who made sure he rode her all the way to line as needed (unlike several of our near misses of late) and he certainly earned his fee, as they hung on to repel a flying finisher to land the race by a short head at 3/1, a half point shorter than advised.

It was the perfect end to a difficult week and although we're still in the red for September (my weekly update will be up around lunchtime), it does renew hope of a good finish to a tough month.

That finish will improve dramatically if we land the winner of the...

3.10 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Time is against me this evening for a number of (all very dull!) reasons, so I'm going to keep it short and sweet. I would, however, reiterate that no matter how long/short my posts are, the same amount of time/effort has gone into them. In fact, Mondays usually take longer, due to the lack of quality of racing.

Anyway, this race is a Class 6, 1m2f, 3yo+ handicap on good to firm ground, where I'm backing Royal Roslea at 4/1 BOG, as she drops down in class in a bid to improve upon a 0.75 lengths defeat last time out.

Royal Roslea is a 3yr old filly trained by Marcus Tregoning and the first thing that drew me to her was the fact that since the start of the 2008 campaign, Marcus' Flat handicappers are 84/489 (17.2% SR) for 123.2pts (+25.2% ROI). Those numbers alone are enough for me to be interested in any of his handicappers and if his stats fit a selected race's conditions, even better.

So, let's look at those 489 runners in respect of this particular race...

  • 43/261 (16.5% SR) for 123.4pts (47.3% ROI) at 1m to 1m3f
  • 45/258 (17.4% SR) for 75.4pts (29.2% ROI) with 3yr olds
  • 37/204 (18.1% SR) for 131.9pts (64.7% ROI) on Good to Firm
  • 34/183 (18.6% SR) for 67.9pts (37.1% ROI) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 30/145 (20.7% SR) for 54.8pts (37.8% ROI) with female runners
  • 15/78 (19.2% SR) for 30.4pts (39% ROI) dropping down a class
  • 11/66 (16.7% SR) for21.7pts (32.9% ROI) at Class 6
  • 12/43 (27.9% SR) for 10.4pts (24.1% ROI) here at Bath.

The above eight angles can be mixed and matched to make successful microsystems, but constraints of time mean I can't do those for you on this occasion.

You can see that there's profit to be made from the Tregoning 'cappers at every facet of this contest and throw in the fact that Royal Roslea was a course and distance winner here two starts ago makes her of massive interest to me again today.

I am mildly concerned that there's a large field going to post, but that probably adds a little to her price, which is a widely available 4/1 BOG. I've gone with Coral, just in case we get narrowly beaten (they refund on defeats of a head or less), but you can choose your own bookie, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2015

Wow! That was a close call on Saturday, wasn't it?

Don't get me wrong, it was a welcome win after the recent spell of poor form/luck/what have you, but Chicadoro certainly didn't do much for my nerves at Haydock.

She got out quickly and made all under an enterprising ride from Oisin Murphy who made sure he rode her all the way to line as needed (unlike several of our near misses of late) and he certainly earned his fee, as they hung on to repel a flying finisher to land the race by a short head at 3/1, a half point shorter than advised.

It was the perfect end to a difficult week and although we're still in the red for September (my weekly update will be up around lunchtime), it does renew hope of a good finish to a tough month.

That finish will improve dramatically if we land the winner of the...

3.10 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Time is against me this evening for a number of (all very dull!) reasons, so I'm going to keep it short and sweet. I would, however, reiterate that no matter how long/short my posts are, the same amount of time/effort has gone into them. In fact, Mondays usually take longer, due to the lack of quality of racing.

Anyway, this race is a Class 6, 1m2f, 3yo+ handicap on good to firm ground, where I'm backing Royal Roslea at 4/1 BOG, as she drops down in class in a bid to improve upon a 0.75 lengths defeat last time out.

Royal Roslea is a 3yr old filly trained by Marcus Tregoning and the first thing that drew me to her was the fact that since the start of the 2008 campaign, Marcus' Flat handicappers are 84/489 (17.2% SR) for 123.2pts (+25.2% ROI). Those numbers alone are enough for me to be interested in any of his handicappers and if his stats fit a selected race's conditions, even better.

So, let's look at those 489 runners in respect of this particular race...

  • 43/261 (16.5% SR) for 123.4pts (47.3% ROI) at 1m to 1m3f
  • 45/258 (17.4% SR) for 75.4pts (29.2% ROI) with 3yr olds
  • 37/204 (18.1% SR) for 131.9pts (64.7% ROI) on Good to Firm
  • 34/183 (18.6% SR) for 67.9pts (37.1% ROI) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 30/145 (20.7% SR) for 54.8pts (37.8% ROI) with female runners
  • 15/78 (19.2% SR) for 30.4pts (39% ROI) dropping down a class
  • 11/66 (16.7% SR) for21.7pts (32.9% ROI) at Class 6
  • 12/43 (27.9% SR) for 10.4pts (24.1% ROI) here at Bath.

The above eight angles can be mixed and matched to make successful microsystems, but constraints of time mean I can't do those for you on this occasion.

You can see that there's profit to be made from the Tregoning 'cappers at every facet of this contest and throw in the fact that Royal Roslea was a course and distance winner here two starts ago makes her of massive interest to me again today.

I am mildly concerned that there's a large field going to post, but that probably adds a little to her price, which is a widely available 4/1 BOG. I've gone with Coral, just in case we get narrowly beaten (they refund on defeats of a head or less), but you can choose your own bookie, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

York Trainer Stats

dermot-weld_2756508

Dermot Weld York Runners Are Feared....

With the four-day York Ebor Festival starting this week (Weds-Sat), Andy Newton’s got six handlers to look out for with their runners on the Knavesmire. Read more

York Trainer Stats

M Johnston

Johnston is Just 11-from-208 at York!

With the three-day York Dante Meeting this midweek Andy Newton highlights some yards to look out for, plus some high-profile stables that don’t have the best of records on the Knavesmire. Read more

Barry Hills back in business

barry hills2There’s an old name returning to the training scene in Barry Hills, who has come out of retirement at the age of 76. His name won’t actually appear in the racecards, as he won’t hold a licence. He will, though, manage 14 horses owned by Sheikh Hamdan, which will run under son John’s name. Read more

Tregoning off the mark from new base

tregoningA winner is a winner as they say. It doesn’t matter whether it’s in a maiden race or a classic, if the price is 2/1, you get the same return, and some will get the same satisfaction. Read more

Sat TV Trends: 6th Oct 2012

It's Off To Ascot This Saturday....

Like every Saturday we've got all the LIVE C4 action covered from a stats angle - this week from Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar.... Read more

Trainer Stats: 3rd Oct 2012

 

Tregoning On The Marc....

Andy Newton gave you last weekend's Cambridgeshire-winning trainer - Marcus Tregoning -  to look out for, so who's on his 'hot list' this week? Read more

Monday Mish Mash: Racing and other stuff

So I've been a bit sidetracked since last I wrote... Young Leon was thrust unwillingly into the bright lights of a delivery ward last Wednesday, and most things (actually, everything) have (has) taken a back seat since then. More on that in a moment. I've also got a word on the weekend racing; Fantasy Racing; Stat of the Day; and, the geegeez.co.uk National Hunt syndicate.

Firstly, the racing. From Thursday through to Saturday, Newmarket staged its three day Cambridgeshire meeting on the Rowley Mile, and some high class action ensued.

Thursday was a quiet enough affair, and that stalwart of HQ, John Gosden, enjoyed a tasty 252/1 treble, courtesy of Listed wins from Gallipot and Caucus, and a handicap success for Hezmah. Gosden is always a man to keep on side at Newmarket and especially so at the tail end of the year. Johnny G's treble on the opening day wasn't the last time he'd frequent the winners' enclosure before the weekend was out.

Star of the Thursday show though was probably Richard Hannon's Havana Gold, a highly promising son of Teofilo, now unbeaten in four completed starts (he was winning when his saddle slipped and he unseated rider in a Listed race over in France).

The winner came from last to first to prevail with authority from a group of horses which, in truth, were a) no match for him, and b) not quite top class.

Havana Gold will have plenty of options, including the Tattersalls Millions race this Saturday; and the Group 1 pair, the Dewhurst and the Racing Post Trophy. Given that he wants a mile really, the very fast seven of the sales race or either of the Group 1's look achievable goals, and perhaps the main danger is over-racing, as I suspect connections will want to take in the former and one of the latter two.

Wherever Havana Gold goes next, he looks a colt of immense promise.

Friday's card was dominated by the Fillies' Mile, a Group 1 juvenile contest over... a mile, strangely enough. Certify, for Godolphin and Mahmood al Zarooni, scooted up in the manner of an exciting young lass.

Certify was in front at the two furlong pole, further in front at the furlong pole, and routed them by four and a half lengths by the line. It's fair to say that, herself aside, it was a weakish contest in terms of strength in depth, but that shouldn't decry from a decisive and impressive winner.

Now four from four, and clearly progressive, it is to be presumed she'll be aimed at the 1000 Guineas next Spring, for which she's a general 8/1 chance. If you're into ante-post betting on such events, it's hard to crab that sort of course and distance form and the price looks fair, without - obviously - being generous.

Gosden was on the money again in a decent looking maiden, with the previously unraced Seek Again. In a race which could work out well, he was comfortably on top by the line.

Saturday was Cambridgeshire day, and also featured some strong Group class action, spearheaded by the Group 1 pair, the Cheveley Park Stakes and Sun Chariot Stakes.

Siyouma is a filly I backed when she was last at Newmarket for the Falmouth Stakes on the July course. I backed her place only that day and got a shocking tote return as I'd forgotten that the French bet into our pools on some of the big races (and were, understandably, all over 'their' gal).

I backed her place only this time too, with Betfair so at a known price. Frustrating in part to note that she won here, but not at all surprising given the record of the - generally fresher - French fillies who contest it. (They've won the last four, albeit that Sahpresa won the previous three all on her own!)

In the Cheveley Park, Rosdhu Queen was another filly taking her score card to four out of four, and she did it well, leading from the front and staying on gamely. There's talk of a 1000 Guineas tilt for this young lady too, but despite a pedigree which offers hope, her performances thus far have been over five and six furlongs, and another top class quarter mile might just be beyond her. I'd not be interested in offers around the 25/1 mark, at least not until I've seen a seven furlong performance.

The title race of the meeting, the 33 runner (!!) Cambridgeshire, went the way of Marcus Tregoning's Bronze Angel. I had a very small interest and was far more delighted for Tregoning than me, as he's a good trainer who has had a tough few seasons, perhaps best illustrated by releasing Makfi in the belief that he was no good. (Makfi of course went on to win the 2000 Guineas and the Prix Jacques Le Marois).

********

Your first 30 days for just £1

There was one race at the Newmarket meeting which qualified for the QIPCO Fantasy Racing competition. That was Friday's Joel Stakes, won by gallant old timer, Penitent.

With just Champions Day itself, and the hatful of points available there, the Geegeez Super League is lying in second place, a mere 21 points behind leaders, OLBG.

In a race to the wire almost as exciting as the Ryder Cup (clearly, I jest: that was monumental!!!), we still have every chance of claiming the kudos and the spoils, whatever they are!

Gary Camplin leads our league, from Dan Tory, and both of them have impressive enough hauls to be register in the top fifty (out of 20,000 or so) in the overall competition.

********

Stat of the Day continues in excellent fettle. Whilst I'm having a spell on the sidelines, Chris continues to do the business. He followed up a 20/1 advised winner the week before last, with a 12/1 winner last week, and SotD ended up over 25 points in front for September.

That's a whopping 126 units profit since inception last November, from just one bet a day. And it's free.

You can check out Stat of the Day, either by bookmarking this page - http://www.geegeez.co.uk/category/horse-racing-blog/daily-stat-of-the-day/ - or by following me on twitter at @mattbisogno. (Each day's SotD post is highlighted on my timeline, so you know when it's been posted).

********

Finally on the racing front, the second geegeez.co.uk horse syndicate filled up quickly, and we are now quite close to securing a horse. We have one in mind, and have agreed a price. Vetting will take place this Wednesday and, all being well, the horse will be in the care of Anthony Honeyball by the early hours of Thursday morning.

I can't really say any more at this stage except that he's won nine races in a 21 race career, and is on favourable marks over both hurdles and fences, and also on the flat, which means he'll have a lot of options.

Fingers crossed that all goes well on Wednesday.

Our existing horse, Khajaaly, continues to go well after his first run in six months, and we'll be looking for another race for him in the next fortnight or so as he steps up his Autumn/Winter campaign. He's a little high in the handicap just now, but should be up to winning before the all weather campaign is over.

********

And last but not least - in fact, saving the best for last - I'd like to introduce someone very special to you. On Wednesday of last week, Mrs Matt endured the tortures and traumas of child birth to deliver us a beautiful baby boy, Leonardo (or Leon, for short).

He was 7lb 11oz on arrival and has a put a little weight on since then. He's quite tall as well, which is surprising considering his dad's limited vertical achievements!

Most importantly, after a tricky first couple of days when he was in a special care unit, he's now home - as is mum - and both are doing fantastic.

Leon is absolutely adorable, and I can't believe how lucky I am. At a few days shy of 41, I didn't think this was going to happen, and I'm thrilled to join the massed ranks of the parents brigade. What a lucky union we are.

Here's a pic or two, and a video, if such things float your boat. They are certainly floating mine!

Matt

Poorly Leon just a few hours old

Poorly Leon just a few hours old

Home and happy

Home and happy

Trainer Stats: 26th Sept 2012

Anything Willie Mullins Runs Should Be Respected

Andy Newton has six in-form trainers to look out for this week...... Read more

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2012

Stat of the Day 4/9

Stat of the Day 4/9

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2012

The very aptly named Looks Like Rain was a comfortable winner in the end yesterday. As predicted, our selection made full use of the extra 100yds or so and stayed on strongly to win with plenty left (in my opinion, of course!) We took the 9/2 on offer early, which was good advice as the Sp was 11/4. It was also interesting to note that the other Ellison/de Sousa mount won too!  Our follow-up attempt only takes us about 45 miles East of last evening's success, as we look at a Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs. Our choice currently has 13 to beat on good to firm ground in the...

2.30 Leicester

Marcus Tregoning has sent very few horses to Leicester in recent times: just six in the last two years to be precise. But when you see that those six horses have returned 3 winners and 3 places, our attention is grabbed immediately when he sends the horse-box to Leicester. His record over the last 2 years here actually reads 311312.

Marcus is represented by two runners here today: Gilded Frame runs in the 3.05 (currently 7/2 favourite) and stands a good chance if running to the best of his ability and breeding. His previous 2 efforts have been a little disappointing, but his task looks easier today. However, I think our best chance lies in the preceding race with Konstantin.

Konstantin won three handicaps over this trip in 2011, but was slow to get back into form this year. However, he battled to a narrow victory at this same level at Folkestone last time out and a similar effort should be enough to take this one. He also has a Course & Distance win under his belt from his only appearance at this track. He was partnered by Hayley Turner that day and she takes the ride again today: she also rides Gilded Frame in the 3.05.

Konstantin is currently best priced at 13/2 with betVictor and at that price, I'll take the safer E/W option, but as always, I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.30 Leicester.

Trainer Stats: 15th Aug 2012

Tregoning Horses Are Hitting The Mark

See who is on Andy Newton’s ‘HOT TRAINERS’ list this week....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 24th May 2012

Tregoning's Horses On The Mark......

With 5 winners from his last 12 runners Marcus Tregoning's horses are in cracking form at present. Read more