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Monday Musings: A Visinari Visionary

Peter Ashmore and I stood hanging over the rail at the top end of the paddock adjacent to the saddling boxes before the opening race of Newmarket’s July Course season on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford. A big grey colt came by and we agreed: “It’s a giant! Surely he’s come in early before the following handicap!”

Further inspection revealed it was Visinari, a tall, leggy son of Dark Angel trained by Mark Johnston and ridden by an unusually-available Ryan Moore, taking some non-Coolmore mounts on home turf while Seamie and Donnacha shared a juvenile winner apiece at Navan.

A year before, Calyx – earlier in the week reported to have suffered an injury when losing for the first time at Doncaster which will put him out of Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup – won his debut in the corresponding six-furlong race by five lengths and six.

Thirty minutes later Gunmetal, rated 93, won the handicap in 1min 10.76sec, 1.80 sec faster than Calyx’s recording of 1min 12.56 sec on good to firm going. Gunmetal now has an official mark of 104. With the weight-for-age scale decreeing that in the first week of June, two-year-olds should receive 38lb from their elders, for Calyx to run within 1.80 sec (nine lengths) of a five-year-old was meritorious.

So how can one begin to explain what Visinari was about to show us after those few languid spins around the paddock? He was bought at Arqana as a yearling for €55,000, apparently breaking the mantra of Johnston buys requiring dams to be rated at least 90; but Visinada, a daughter of Derby winner Sinndar, has already produced two winning progeny exceeding that level.

It is so easy to forget. Sinndar dominated racing in 2000, winning all but one of his eight career races including the Derby, Irish Derby and Arc for his owner-breeder the Aga Khan. He brings to Visinari’s pedigree an obvious stamina influence, but his winning siblings both showed decent speed on the track.

Anyway, on debut and faced with a well-touted Godolphin colt with previous experience, the clearly well-schooled Visinari went off in front. Moore needed to push him out when Ottoman Court, a son of Shamardal tried to join him on the outside at around the two-furlong pole, and he responded to the tune of an always-extending three and a half lengths.

There were echoes of Calyx in the result as it was another ten back to the rest. Just to confirm what the eyes told us, half an hour later the four-year-old Flavius Titus, rated 95, won the all-aged handicap in a time 0.14 sec SLOWER than Visinari’s 1 min 10.41sec. Add the 32lb (four-year-olds get 6lb from their elders in the scale at this stage of the season) and Visinari has run to somewhere near 127! One can only surmise that with the official going both this year and last “good to firm” and a disparity of only 0.21 sec in the times of the two all-age handicaps, Visinari must be something special to be two seconds faster than Calyx.

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Maybe it’s a freak result but looking at Visinari before and listening to what Charlie Johnston was saying afterwards: “He’s all legs and because he’s so big we kept delaying running him until after one more impressive gallop” or words to that effect. The clock doesn’t lie as I could hear Phil Bull saying and those days of yore were imprinted again on my mind in the middle of the night as I prepared to begin this epistle.

George Hill, who one must remember is younger than me, sent me four pages from different editions of the Racehorse from 1965 when he would have been 18 and I had only just left school, almost a decade before I edited the same weekly.

He wrote a couple of columns talking in one about trainer Earl Jones – someone he got to know very well 50 and more years ago – and his horse Honey End, who later finished an unlucky second as the favourite in Foinavon’s notorious Grand National.

Thanks for that Georgie, when will you start coming racing again?

But I digress. So what now for the grey giant? You can imagine Ryan saying in the de-brief: “Well really, he’s so big I’d give Royal Ascot a miss, give him time to mature and bring him back here for the July meeting.” Maybe they will, but you’d have to be thinking Coventry and a clash with the best of Ballydoyle.

Whether that would mean the winning Navan debutant Royal Lytham, a son of first-season sire Gleneagles, who among others had an odds-on stable-companion (by War Front) well beaten in fourth when causing a mild surprise at 10-1 on Saturday.

Thus he became the third winner by Gleneagles and first in Ireland for the dual Guineas-winning son of Galileo. It was always the hope that the king of Coolmore would produce top milers to go with the middle-distance and staying champions, and Gleneagles is the first in a plentiful pipeline hoped to bring precocity to the breed.

Gleneagles has won with three of nine runners so far, and the non-winners include Daily Times, a John Gosden-trained half-sister to the 2018 juvenile champion Newspaperofrecord who incidentally suffered a second defeat of the year at odds of 3-20 (1.15 in Betfair parlance) at Belmont Park on Thursday. Daily Times, the 9-2 second favourite, was fourth behind Visinari, just edged out for third after being prominent for most of the race.

Charlie Johnston spoke about the yard’s Royal Ascot team “taking shape” and referred to a number about to run with the possibility of aiming at the Chesham. That seven-furlong race is not until Saturday week, opening up the fifth day and requires sire or dam to have won at ten furlongs or above.

That qualification lets in Romsey, a daughter of the Coral-Eclipse winner Mukhadram, who opened her account with a smooth success second time out at Chelmsford on Saturday. Unlike the top-end home-breds and sales buys, Romsey started her public life in unprepossessing fashion.

Entered in Tattersalls Book 3 last October from Lavington Stud, she didn’t attract a bid and was recorded as “Vendor 800gns”, the minimum. She ended up with Hughie Morrison. After a promising debut third over six furlongs at Windsor, she went on to Chelmsford and upped to seven, won by four and a half lengths.

When I asked Hughie about the sales debacle, he said. “I went to see her at the stud during Goodwood last year with a bloodstock agent and we both told Al <Alasdair Macdonald-Buchanan> that she’d struggle at the sale as she was so weak.

“I must say, though, I don’t think I’ve ever had a two-year-old improve so much so quickly. Even allowing for her weakness, you must have expected some interest as she’s half-sister to two two-year-winners including Indian Viceroy who won twice for us last year.

“The Chesham might be an option. The alternative, carrying a 7lb penalty running for three grand against horses from top stables, is most unattractive.”

Hughie cheered up the Raymond Tooth team when bringing out Say Nothing for a much-improved run under 9st10lb at Haydock last week and she might turn out again at Sandown on Friday. Stable-companion Sod’s Law will definitely run there, stepping up to a mile and a quarter with P J McDonald’s endorsement after his running-on fourth over a mile on the firm at Leicester. Wish us luck. We need it.

But I can’t stop thinking about Visinari!

- TS

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.40 Newcastle : Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders in main group, ridden and hung left over 2f out, weakened under pressure inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 7-runner, Group 3 Longines Sagaro Stakes for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £34026 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old Colt had decent runner-up finishes in both of last year's Chester Vase and The Derby, before losing his way slightly. That said, he was far from disgraced in finishing fourth stepping up in trip in the St Leger, which was his final effort of a busy/tiring season.

That was quite a while ago, but he looked like he'd be able to get today's trip and if ready for the challenge, he's certainly well rested this time!

Jockey William Buick is in good nick riding 7 winners from 22 over the last fortnight and rides this track well, having 43 winners from 257 (16.7% SR) for 31.7pts (+12.3% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, including 6 wins from 23 (26.1%) in Group 3 contests that have generated profits of 9.52pts (+41.4%)

His record here at Ascot for trainer Mark Johnston stands at 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 3.47pts (+20.4% ROI) with the following of interest/relevance today...

  • in non-hcps : 4/15 (26.7%) for 5.47pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 2.24pts (+16%)
  • on Good to Firm : 3/10 (30%) for 7.75pts (+77.5%)
  • males are 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.47pts (+127.5%)
  • and for prizes of less than £35k : 2/5 (40%) for 1.95pts (+39%)

...whilst from the above... Buick + Johnston + males + 6/1 & shorter + non-hcps = 4/4 (100% SR) for 16.47pts (+411.8% ROI) including 3/3 at Class 1, 3/3 on Gd to Firm and 2 from 2 in Class 1 races on Good to Firm ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available  at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.35 Ripon : Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along to chase winner over 1f out, stayed on towards finish, but couldn't reel in the winner who'd been given far too soft and far too big a lead early on.)

Good Friday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5322 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4yr old filly who has never finished outside the first home in nine starts, winning three times and placing on four other occasions, including...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 over 1m3.5f - 1m4f
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 at 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 under today's jockey Franny Norton
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 at 1m3.5f
  • 1 win from 2 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 here at Bath
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

She is trained by Mark Johnston, about whom the market tends to be right here at this venue, as since 2012 his runners sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 23/73 (31.5% SR) for 6.74pts (+9.24% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 14.02pts (+25.5%) on ground officially described using the word firm
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 21pts (+63.7%) from his female runners
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 11.3pts (+35.3%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 3.47pts (+24.8%) from those beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 2.36pts (+29.5%) in April

...whilst females on Good to Firm / Firm are 13/26 (50% SR) for 19.04pts (+73.2% ROI), including 6 from 8 (75%) for 8.61pts (+107.6%) last season...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.35pm on Thursday (12.35pm here), but those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get an extra quarter point right now. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Newcastle : Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (beaten by 2 lengths, report to follow)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

City Tour 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Just 3 previous runs to date for this 3 yr old colt and he returns from his winter break to make a handicap debut on quicker ground than he's seen before and at a lower grade than previous. This could all point to a bit of a plot job, but others would know far about those things than I do : I'll just stick to the facts/numbers!

We're with the tried & tested Johnston/Fanning combination today and unsurprisingly, they're doing well again having already clocked up 20 winners from 67 (29.9% SR) for 56.7pts (+84.7% ROI) profit in 2019 and both have good records at this venue.

In fact, Mark Johnston's runners are 72 from 360 (20% SR) for 62.5pts (+17.4% ROI) here at Musselburgh since 2012 and whilst that's excellent, jockey choice plays a massive part in his success.

On the occasions, he hasn't been able to secure Joe Fanning's services, those 360 runners are just 16/137 (11.7%) for a mere 6.6pts (4.82%) profit, but when Joe has been available to ride Mark's horses here, they have won 56 of 223 (25.1% SR) for 55.9pts (+25.1% ROI), from which...

  • those visiting Musselburgh for the first time are 41/163 (25.2%) for 52.1pts (+32%)
  • 3 yr olds are 30/110 (27.3%) for 21.9pts (+20%)
  • those with no previous career wins are 24/78 (30.8%) for 39.4pts (+50.5%)
  • those with three or fewer career runs are 24/76 (31.6%) for 34.4pts (+45.3%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 21/75 (28%) for 43.1pts (+57.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 24/73 (32.9%) for 18.6pts (+25.4%)
  • in April : 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.1pts (+10.9%)
  • and with horses coming off a 3-9 month break : 6/14 (42.9%) for 5pts (+35.7%)

...and from the above... 2/3 yr olds with no wins from 0 to 3 previous career runs and now coming to Musselburgh for the first time are 19 from 56 (33.9% SR) for 41.3pts (+73.7% ROI), including...

  •  Class 5 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+20%)
  • at this 7f C&D : 7/25 (28%) for 7.4pts (+29.5%)
  • in April : 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.1pts (+200.8%)
  • and after a 3-9 month absence : 4/6 (66.6%) for 6.2pts (+103.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on City Tour 5/1 BOG which was available from Hills at 6.00pm on Monday, as it had been since shortly after 4pm! Not sure wy the other firms haven't opened, but when they do I'll update. 4/1 BOG  seems to be the par at 6.55pm, so in the interests of clarity/fairness I'll declare my results at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2019

Friday's Pick was...

8.00 Newcastle : Star Cracker @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Deep Intrigue 10/3 BOG

...in the 6-runner Spring Cup Stakes (Listed) for 3yo's over 7f on polytrack, worth £25520 to the winner...

Why?

This 3yr old colt is in excellent form winning 4 of his last 5 outings and has a record of 1611 on the A/W, including a visit on his only previous run here.

To date he is...

  • 3/4 at odds of 2/1 and bigger
  • 3/4 as a non-fav
  • 2/3 on Poly
  • 2/3 going left handed
  • 2/2 within 7-14 days of his last run
  • 2/2 under today's jockey PJ McDonald

Trainer Mark Johnston's horse are in good nick, winning 3 from 9 in the past week and slightly more long term are 9/21 (42.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 11/35 (31.4%) over the past month.

Whilst here on the Lingfield polytrack, MJ's charges are 41/141 (29.1% SR) for 112.6pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017, including...

  • males : 29/94 (30.9%) for 48.3pts (+51.4%)
  • Feb/March : 20/58 (34.5%) for 40.66pts (+70.01%)
  • non-hcps : 15./54 (27.8%) for 37pts (+68.6%)
  • over 7f : 6/20 (30%) for 40.6pts (+203.1%)
  • those with 1 previous course win : 6/15 (40%) for 10.7pts (+71%)
  • and with PJ McDonald in the saddle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 7.07pts (+78.6%)

PJ comes here just for this one ride today, but has a good record here especially over shorter trips at the sharp end of the market with 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+123.3% ROI) over 6f-1m at Evens to 11/2 since the start of 2017.

And finally, in that same 2017-19 time frame, when PJ has pitched up at a track for just one ride, he's 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+93.9% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter, from which...

  • Mark Johnston horses are 5/15 (33.3%) for 8.9pts (+59.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 2/6 (33.3%) for 3pts (+50%)
  • and on Mark Johnston horses here at Lingfield : 2/3 (66.6%) for 6pts (+200%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Deep Intrigue 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.25 Pontefract : Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG (=3.6/1 after 20p R4) WON at 5/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway over 2f out, switched right over 1f out, stayed on to lead inside final 150 yards, soon clear, eased towards finish, winning by 1.75 lengths) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Fillies Group 2, Flat contest (the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good ground, worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 2yr old filly (obviously!) has won 4 of her 6 starts so far, including 2 x Group 3's. She's never run on genuinely good ground before but is 3 from 4 on Good to Soft / Good to Firm, she's 4 from 5 on a straight track and 3 from 4 and since winning on debut is 3 from 4 after a rest of less than 30 days.

Her trainer Mark Johnston is 8 from 46 (17.4% SR) for 27pts (+58.6% ROI) over the last 7 days and here on the Rowley track at HQ has saddled up 49 winners from 388 (12.6% SR) for 168.6pts (+43.5% ROI) over the last 8 (inc. this one)seasons, including...

  • after 6 to 15 days rest : 32/136 (23.5%) for 334pts (+245.6%)
  • in September : 11/82 (13.4%) for 12.5pts (+15.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 13/78(16.7%) for 9.57pts (+12.3%)
  • at the Cambridgeshire meeting : 8/58 (13.8%) for 16.4pts (+28.2%)
  • and at Group 2 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.33pts (+52.8%)

And who would you want in the saddle for a competitive Group race at HQ?

Frankie, of course!

The irrepressible Mr Dettori has only got two rides booked today and this look his best chance, so we should see him give everything he's got here. He's been in the frame in 10 of his last 11 rides, including 4 wins and 4 runner-up finishes, whilst his overall record in Class 1 to 3 non-handicaps is exceptional.

Over the least 5 seasons in such contests, he is 142/589 (24.1% SR) for 177.5pts (+30.1%), including...

  • 118/505 (23.4%) for 152.3pts (+30.2%) at Class 1
  • 46/159 (28.9%) for 57.9pts (+36.4%) with 2 yr olds
  • 29/115 (25.2%) for 64.1pts (+55.8%) at Group 2
  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 62.5pts (+56.8%) on Class 1 2 yr olds
  • and 18/45 (40%) for 63pts (+140%) on Group 2 2 yr olds

AND...on The Rowley over the last 5 seasons, he has 39 winners from 205 (19% SR) for 94.8pts (+46.2% ROI) and this includes of relevance today...

  • in non-handicaps : 38/155 (24.5%) for 141.1pts (+91%)
  • at Class 1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 112.4pts (+115.9%)
  • on female horses : 23/86 (26.7%) for 108.9pts (+126.7%)
  • in female-only races : 21/73 (28.8%) for 94.9pts (+130.1%)
  • on 2 yr olds : 13/64 (20.3%) for 38.3pts (+59.8%)
  • over this 7f C&D : 18/60 (30%) for 92pts (+153.3%)
  • in September : 9/47 (19.2%) for 37.1pts (+78.9%)
  • for prizes of £50k or more : 8/44 (18.2%) for 42.7pts (+97.1%)
  • at the Cambridgeshire meeting : 9/41 (22%) for 43.1pts (+105.1%)
  • and at Group 2 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 45.3pts (+348.2%)

You can, of course, mix the above to make profitable micro-angles, but constraints of time prevent me doing that for you this morning (sorry again for the delay!), so the last suggestion...

...that you place... a 1pt win bet on Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by SkyBet, Marathon, Betfred & Totesport at 4.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.35 York : Coronet @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, driven and stayed on to 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gateway 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, I was tempted to stay at York with Shine So Bright in the 3.00, but I've gone for this 3 yr old making just his fourth start overall and his handicap debut today.

Placed in all three runs so far, culminating in a comfortable 3 length victory at Ayr 17 days ago when full of running late on over 7.5f, I'd guess that an extra furlong shouldn't undo him and I think an opening mark of 76 might prove lenient on handicap debut.

He's trained by headline maker Mark Johnston, who landed a nice winner at York on Thursday, and has a great record on the July track with 45 winners from 236 (19.1% SR) in handicaps here since 2012 resulting in punter profits of 105.5pts at a very healthy ROI of 44.7%.

Of note today from those 236 July track 'cappers...

  • those running off a mark of 65 to 95 are 43/208 (20.7%) for 115.4pts (+55.5%)
  • male runners are 33/162 (20.4%) for 105.8pts (+65.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 31/160 (19.4%) for 92.9pts (+58.1%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 28/137 (20.4%) for 115.9pts (+84.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 24/124 (19.4%) for 91.4pts (+73.7%)
  • in 3yo only contests : 19/92 (20.7%) for 95.4pts (+103.7%)
  • LTO winners are 10/55 (18.2%) for 2.66pts (+4.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 13/42 (31%) for 20.4pts (+48.6%)
  • and over this 1 mile C&D : 7/38 (18.4%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%)

...AND...from the above : 3 yr old males rated 65-95 11-60 days after their last run are 17 from 60 (28.3% SR) for 100.2pts (+167% ROI) profit.

I was pleasantly surprised to see James Doyle's name on the racecard to ride this one, as I thought he might have stayed at York to follow up the 2 winners he's already had at this year's Ebor meeting, but York's loss is Newmarket's (and our!) gain, as he's clearly a man in form with a 14-day record of 8 from 31 (25.8% SR) and a 7-day return of 7/24 (29.2% SR).

That said, his past record on this track is probably why he has a full book of rides here, aiming to improve upon his 54 winners from 230 (23.5% SR) rides here over the last 6 seasons that have generated 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 28.9%.

Those 230 rides include of relevance today...

  • on horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 : 50/177 (28.3%) for 79.2pts (+44.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 26/75 (34.7%) for 65pts (+86.7%)
  • in August : 20/71 (28.2%) for 33.7pts (+47.4%)
  • on Class 4 horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 : 23/57 (40.4%) for 44.3pts (77.8%)
  • on horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 in August : 19/55 (34.6%) for 28.7pts (+52.2%)
  • and on Class 4 horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 in August : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.8pts (+107.8%)

Note : these James Doyle stats also apply to Ice Gala (2.05 race), Sangarius (3.15) and Black Lotus (3.45)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gateway 7/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power (as at 6.20pm on Thursday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.00 Kempton : Fortune and Glory @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Persian Moon 5/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 3 contest (Tattersalls Acomb Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 2yr old colt couldn't be in better form, coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Yarmouth and then here over course and distance 23 days ago making him the only previous course (and ultimately C&D) winner in today's contest.

He has winning and placed form on good to firm ground and he's 1 from 1 under today's jockey, the excellent Silvestre de Sousa, whose 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes on Tuesday took his 30 day form to 27/111 (24.3% SR) and his 14 day record to 11 from 47 (23.4%).

More long-term (ie since 2010), SdS is 210/671 (31.3% SR) for 123.3pts (+18.4% ROI) on horses trained by the wily Mark Johnston that were sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 and from these 671 runners, of relevance today...

  • those last seen 4-90 days ago are 180/568 (31.7%) for 99.5pts (+17.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 86/247 (34.8%) for 45.75pts (+18.5%)
  • on 2yr olds : 80/229 (34.9%) for 57.8pts (+25.2%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 77/222 (34.7%) for 79.27pts (+35.7%)
  • over 7/8f : 63/188 (33.5%) for 69.75pts (+37.1%)
  • LTO Winners are 49/151 (32.5%) for 18pts (+11.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/38 (29%) for 8.67pts (+22.8%)
  • and here at York : 5/23 (21.7%) for 2.54pts (+11%)

...whilst since the start of last season, Mark's runners have won 12 of 76 (15.8% SR) here at York, generating profits of 29.23pts at an ROI of 38.5pts, including...

  • in non-handicaps : 11/31 (35.5%) for 70.2pts (+226.4%)
  • 2yr olds are 9/28 (32.1%) for 57.8pts (+206.4%)
  • LTO winners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 12.91pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 1 : 4/17 (23.5%) for 40.04pts (+235.5%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Persian Moon 5/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 6.20pm on Tuesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

7.30 Epsom : Toy Theatre @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 8.05am due to the going)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Threading 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Group 3 contest (Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes) for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is rated (OR) 1 to 15 lbs better than the four of her five rivals who've got an official mark, but as the only filly in the contest gets a 3lb weight pull from all five, putting her at a great advantage as she seeks a fourth win in eight starts.

Her current 3 from 7 record is decent if not exceptional, but does include of note today...

  • 3 from 4 when not at Newmarket (perhaps she's not suited there)
  • 2 from 3 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 2 from 2 in August
  • wins on Gd to Fm / Gd to Soft & Soft suggest no going issues
  • has 2 wins at Class 1, inc a Gr 2
  • has won over 1m
  • has won here at Goodwood
  • and has won under jockey James Doyle

Her trainer, Mark Johnston, thrives here at Goodwood and prior to hitting two winners from six runners yesterday, his record at this venue stood at 82/543 (15.1% SR) for 266.8pts (+49.1% ROI) since the start of the 2008 season and these include of relevance today...

  • over the last five (inc this one) seasons : 44/269 (16.4%) for 143pts (+53.1%)
  • at 11-25 days since last run : 46/261 (17.6%) for 237.9 (+91.2%)
  • on good ground : 41/240 (17.1%) for 158.6pts (+66.1%)
  • in August : 23/152 (15.1%) for 95.2pts (+62.6%)
  • in non-handicaps : 29/151 (19.2%) for 69.2pts (+45.9%)
  • over 1m/1m1f : 16/79 (20.3%) for 76pts (+96.2%)
  • at Class 1 : 12/71 (16.9%) for 26.4pts (+37.2%)
  • at Group 3 : 4/26 (15.4%) for 19.7pts (+75.6%)
  • and with James Doyle in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.6pts (+174%)

...AND...over the last five seasons with horses on good ground, 11-25 days after their last run : 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 88.4pts (+188.1% ROI) with a Class 1 record of 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 12.7pts (+141.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Threading 5/2 BOGa price widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.45 Yarmouth : Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (In touch, headway entering final furlong, soon joined leader, driven to lead post)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delft Dancer @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

A 2 yr old filly, making her sixth start after four top 3 finishes including 1 win so far.

Her trainer Mark Johnston is in good form, with 23 winners from 105 (21.9% SR) yielding 50.8pts profit at an ROI of 48.3% over the last fortnight, whilst today's jockey Silvestre de Sousa is in similarly good touch riding 16 winners from 78 (20.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+32.8% ROI) in the same 14 day period.

More generally, here at Leicester, Mark's horses have won 15 of 46 (32.6% SR) for 22.4pts (+48.6% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 12/33 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+77.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.68pts (+57%)
  • females are 6/16 (37.5%) for 12pts (+75%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.69pts (+60.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/15 933.3%) for 7pts (+46.8%)

Meanwhile, also here at Leicester, Mr de Sousa has ridden 32 winners from 123 (26% SR) for profits of 64.7pts (+52.6% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season and these include...

  • 23 wins from 79 (29.1%) for 57.8pts (+73.1%) over 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 21 from 72 (29.2%) for 53.3pts (+74.1%) in handicaps
  • 13 from 44 (29.6%) for 44.7pts (+101.7%) at Class 5
  • 11 from 41 (26.8%) for 29.6pts (+72.3%) over 7f
  • 9 from 312 (29%) for 32.4pts (+104.6%) on Good to Firm
  • and 5 from 10 (50%) for 13.84pts (+138.4%) in Nursery races

Trainer and jockey also have a good record when they come together, winning 81 of 439 (18.5% SR) handicaps for 142.3pts (+32.4% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • on the Flat (turf) : 65/348 (18.7%) for 167.4pts (+48.1%)
  • with females : 30/158 (19%) for 133.6pts (+84.5%)
  • over 7f to 1m : 29/127 (22.8%) for 24.3pts (+19.2%)
  • in July : 20/63 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+34.8%)
  • here at Leicester : 6/24 925%) for 4.74pts (+19.8%)

...and from the above : Johnston + de Sousa + females + Flat (turf) + 7f to 1m = 8/38 921.1% SR) for 4.88pts (+12.9% ROI), from which...

  • in July : 3/5 960%) for 8.49pts (+169.8%)
  • at Leicester : 2/4 950%) for 7.88pts (+197%)
  • and in July here at Leicester = 1/1!

That 1 from 1 July/Leicester runner was when Martini Time won this very race back in 2015 and the same trainer/jockey combo also won this race last year, albeit with a male runner, Ventura Knight.

Like Delft Dancer today, Ventura Knight was also making his sixth career start that day and was also top weighted conceding several pounds all round : so the profile looks strong!

...and points towards...a 1pt win bet on Delft Dancer 9/2 or 4/1 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SkyBet respectively, as of 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

7.50 Lingfield : Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (In rear, headway 2f out, not clear run [poorly positioned IMO] and switched right over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ridden and ran on, couldn't reach winner, beaten by a head)

We continue with Wednesday's...

3.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danzay @ 3/1 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 handicap for 3yo over 1m on polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

here we have a 3 yr old gelding who was a winner over 1m2f at Goodwood just five days ago when making all. The truth however is that he was hanging on for the last 2f and the line couldn't come quick enough for him. The good news here is that (a) a drop back to a mile should therefore help him see this one out better, (b) he's unpenalised for that win, as it was an apprentice handicap and (b) the wily Franny Norton now takes over in the saddle : an excellent judge of race pace.

And although his trainer Mark Johnston has a 15.8% strike rate at this venue (47/298), he's not profitable to follow blindly, however...

...if you backed all his 2 to 4 yr olds here sent off at 7/2 & shorter, you'd have 33 winners from 89 (37.1% SR) and 15.2pts (+17.1% ROI) profit, from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 21/52 (40.4%) for 15.2pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.2pts (+37.2%)
  • and at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 11/19 (57.9%) for 15.9pts (+83.8%)

More generally, since the start of 2013 at trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs on UK polytracks, horses who won or were beaten by less than lengths LTO and were turned back out just 2 to 5 days later, went on to win 141 of 562 (25.1% SR) quick follow-ups recording profits of 172.9pts at a healthy ROI of 30.8%. These are not trainer specific, just blindly backing quick returners who weren't well beaten LTO.

And finally, seeing as this one did win so recently, it's worth noting that Mark Johnston's Class 5 handicappers who won last time out are 35/95 (36.8% SR) for 26.3pts (+27.7% ROI) profit and these include of relevance today...

  • 27 winners from 69 (39.1%) for 23.8pts (+34.5%) for those last seen 4-25 days earlier
  • 31 from 64 (48.4%) for 21.8pts (+34%0 at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 24 from 55 (43.6%) for 32.7pts (+59.4%) from those running at the same class as LTO
  • 17 from 35 (48.6%) for 23.4pts (+66.8%) in the June-August quarter
  • and 9 from 24 (37.5%) for 3.93pts (+16.4%) on polytrack

...and derived from the above, you could back those priced at 6/1 and shorter at the same class as an LTO win 4-25 days earlier for 20 winners from 38 (52.6% SR) and 23,2pts profit at an ROI of 60.9%...

...which would prompt...a 1pt win bet on Danzay @ 3/1 BOGGENERALLY. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.30 Goodwood : Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Pulled hard in touch, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon hung badly right but ran on well to win by 3.5 lengths)

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 

A 13-runner, Fillies Conditions Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £21788 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, as per the summary at the foot of our racecard, the last 17 runnings of this contest have been won by 11 LTO winners and 3 debutants and with just 3 LTO winners and no debutants today, I was drawn to this filly, who has previously run well enough in better company.

Her form to date reads 1191 with the "9" not being as bad as a 9 normally looks, it was actually a 3 length defeat in a Listed contest on the quickest ground she's encountered to date, so no disgrace there.

Otherwise she's 3/4 at 5 furlongs, 2/3 with today's jockey (PJ McDonald who won for us on Thursday with Quantatmental), 2/2 at Class 2 and 2/2 on good ground.

It pays to be up with the pace over 5f at Beverley and she's one of just two who like to lead here and although it's generally perceived that a high draw (she's in 12) isn't great here, the data on our Pace/Draw analysis says otherwise and she'll also be helped by the other pace angle being next to her in 11.

And the stats behind the pick?

Well, I ignored the obvious/easy route of telling you to back Mark Johnston runners at Beverley, as much has already been made of this both in this column and elsewhere and whilst it is of course valid, we do like to find you something different for SotD.

So, yes it is a Mark Johnston runner at Beverley, but did you know that since the start of 2014, his runners who won LTO 1-25 days earlier at the same class & distance are 28 from 98 (28.3% SR) for 57.4pts (+58% ROI)?

And of those 98...

  • those who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 17/63 (27%) for 67.6pts (+107%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 52.7pts (+170%)
  • on good ground : 4/13 (30.8%) for 48.5pts (+373%)

...and Class 2 runners who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 59.7pts (+248.7% ROI), with a 2/5 (40%) record on good ground yielding 53.67pts at an ROI of 1053.4%. This allied to MJ's well-documented Beverley record...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.15 Yarmouth : Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

We continue now with Wednesday's...

5.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (3yo) on Good To Soft worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, I started with the racecard (usually a good place to start!) and the Geegeez pace/draw tabs give a good indication of how similar races to this one have played out in the past. I quickly saw that horses who like to lead were most successful and that horses drawn low fared best from that perspective.

So, back to the card itself and I see that not only is our girl drawn in stall 1, but she's the only one who likes to get on with it leading to the Pace Forecast to suggest that Probable Lone Speed would be the outcome today ie she might well get out fast and hope to hold on. Brighton is a tricky place to win from behind in such contests and there's every chance we could nick it from the front and with Luke Morris on board, I'm confident that he'll judge it best.

And now the numbers!

This 3 yr old filly is trained by Mark Johnston and is one of seven runners representing the yard today, but the only one to be sent on the long trip to Brighton, but that's not a worry to me, because Mark's runners here are 31/140 (22.1% SR) for 47.1pts (+33.6% ROI) since 2008. To show, I'm not leaning on old data, they were 7/19 (36.8%) for 4.6pts (+24.2%) last season.

Of those 140 Brighton runners, handicappers are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 62.2pts (+69.1% ROI), from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 17/64 (26.6%) for 37.5pts (+58.5%)
  • those who last raced 1 to 4 weeks earlier : 17/62 (27.4%) for 70.6pts (+113.8%)
  • over the last 5 seasons : 13/53 (24.5%) for 15.7pts (+29.6%)
  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 11/2 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.24pts (+20.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 4.4pts (+14.1%)
  • yard's only runner at the track that day : 9/25 (36%) for 13.9pts (+55.6%)
  • and Luke Morris is 1/1 (100%) for 2.5pts (+250%)

Based on the above, you could concentrate on the following...last 5 seasons / 3 yr olds / Class 4+5 / SP odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and who last ran 1 to 4 weeks ago. Backing such runners stands at 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+135.3% ROI)...

...whilst more generally over the last two years, Mark Johnston's runners on the Flat over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs on ground no worse than soft are 116/679 (17.1% SR) for 162pts (+23.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days earlier : 62/363 (17.1%) for 82.4pts (+22.7%)
  • females are 46/285 (16.1%) for 161.8pts (+56.8%)
  • Class 5 : 44/189 (23.3%) for 48pts (+25.4%)

AND... Class 5 females returning from a short 11-30 day break are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 53.5pts (+137.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Tuesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.10 Newmarket : Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 9/4 : Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 2f out, soon beaten...

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Group 3 winner two starts ago and then only narrowly beaten at Group 2 last time out. That was over a mile 15 days ago, when she was headed late on, so the drop back to 7f should work in her/our favour as she bids to build on her record of 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs on good to soft ground.

Her trainer, Mark Johnston is 40/335 (11.9% SR) for 139.7pts (+41.7% ROI) on the Rowley track over the last seven seasons, with the following of relevance today...

  • 6-15 days since last run : 26/121 (21.5%) for 263.4pts (+217.7%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 26/66 (39.4%) for 33.3pts (+50.4%)
  • at Class 1 : 10/59 (17%) for 15.3pts (+25.9%)
  • on good to soft ground : 6/46 (13%) for 145.9pts (+317.1%)
  • lost by 0.25 to 2 lengths LTO : 5/42 (11.9%) for 168.6pts (+401.4%)
  • runner-up LTO : 7/39 (18%) for 26.5pts (+67.8%)
  • and at group 1/2 : 5/23 (21.7%) for 31.74pts (+138%)

And she's by Arch, whose 2 yr olds are 16/83 (19.3% SR) for 77.6pts (+93.5% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • over 7f : 9/41 (22%) for 29.1pts (+71%)
  • females : 8/37 (21.6%) for 35.6pts (+96.1%)
  • and Class 1 : 3/10 (30%) for 21.31pts (+213.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by both BetVictor & Coral at 5.55pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG generally available. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.20 Doncaster : Lahore @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 : Held up behind, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, winning by four lengths...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Incidentally, Roger Varian's only other runner on the Doncaster card was also a winner, also in a Class 2 handicap!

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A valuable Group 2 contest here for 2 yr old fillies, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly no big blockbuster list of facts and figures!

I'd several angles in with this one and in the end there was too much going on for it all to be purely coincidental, so let's just take a quick look at some of the positive lines of enquiry I discovered...

  1. She's 2 from 4 so far in the UK and won a group 3 race when last seen
  2. Trainer Mark Johnston (admittedly not always the easiest to call right stat-wise) is 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 6.07pts (+55.2% ROI) on this track this year with 5 of the 7 losers making the first three home, whilst those priced at 9/2 or shorter are 4/5 (80%) for 12.07pts (+241.4%)
  3. James Doyle rides today, refreshed from a rare day off on Wednesday, yet despite missing out on potential winners by resting is still 12/45 (26.7% SR) over the last fortnight
  4. She's by Arch, whose 2 yr olds are 16/82 (19.5% SR) for 78.6pts (+95.8% ROI) over the last six seasons, including...
    ...over 6f to 1m : 16/76 (21.1%) for 84.6pts (+111.3%)
    ...in non-handicaps : 13/67 (19.4%) for 81.4pts (+121.4%)
    ...females are 8/36 (22.2%) for 36.6pts (+101.6%)
    ...and at Class 1 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+247.9%)
  5. And a quick look at the pace tab of the Geegeez racecard suggests possible lone speed in this race and we're also told that horses who lead do best over 1m here. So, with an average pace score of 3.75, a whole point clear of her nearest rival, she could well nick a soft early lead and control the race from the front.

...prompting me into... a 1pt win bet on Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by ten different firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Hills, because if she wins by 2 lengths or more I get a 15% bonus! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!