Posts

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.20 Stratford : Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (2.8/1 after R4) WON at 13/8 (Jumped left but well, made all, 3 lengths ahead when left well clear at the last, eventually winning by 85 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.20 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £18,675 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, briefly, we have an in-form horse running at a meeting his trainer does well at and who also has a good record with LTO winners racing under familiar circumstances.

Enough for you? I though not, so let me add some meat to those bare bones, starting with the runner himself. A 2 yr old (obviously) colt who comes here on a hat-trick and was last seen winning a similar Class 2, 7 furlong, 12-runner Nursery at Goodwood three weeks ago, where he stayed on well to win by two lengths taking his record to...

  • 2 from 3 over 7f
  • 2 from 3 with Sean Levey on his back
  • 2 from 2 on turf
  • 2 from 2 at 13-30 dslr
  • 1 from 1 in handicaps

His trainer Richard Hannon has enjoyed recent success at the Ebor meeting with his sub-8/1 runners winning 6 of 16 (37.5% SR) contests over the last four festivals returning level stakes profits of 22.88pts at an ROI of 143%, including...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.88pts (+199.1%) with 2 yr olds
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.88pts (+199.1%) in fields of 10+ runners
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 22.25pts (+247.2%) at 16-45 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 18.06pts (+164.2%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.42pts (+447.4%) with Sean Levey in the saddle
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.8pts (+160%) last year alone

And more generally with all his sub-8/1 runners since 2016, Mr Hannon's horses who were LTO winners at the same class/trip are 21 from 57 (36.8% SR) for 40.45pts (+71% ROI) when sent back out within 25 days of that last run/win including of relevance today...

  • 19/50 (38%) for 35.75pts (+71.5%) in races worth less than £20k
  • 18/45 (40%) for 43.75pts (+97.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/34 (44.1%) for 41.25pts (+121.3%) during June to August
  • 12/40 (30%) for 14.89pts (+37.2%) in handicaps
  • 9/18 (50%) for 30pts (+166.6%) with 2 yr olds
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 22.5pts (+187.5%) for Sean Levey
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 10.56pts (+150.9%) in Nurseries

...whilst on the Flat during June-August in sub-£20k races, they are 11 from 25 (44% SR) for 34.48pts (+137.9% ROI) and these include from above...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) in hcps
  • 5/6 (83.3%) with 2 yo's
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for Sean Levey
  • and 2/2 in Nurseries

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG (or bigger) as was available at 8.20am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!