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Stat of the Day, 18th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, unable to challenge winner, stayed on and closing close home but failed by a neck)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Matewan @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

A consistent sort whose SR rating of 85 is a good way ahead of his rivals here today. Those last 5 runs shown above (22221) were all on the All-Weather over today's trip immediately following a win at Ripon, also over this trip on good to soft ground. He has one win and one runner-up finish from two runs on this track, he has three wins and four runner-up places from eight efforts at this trip and of his overall four career wins...

  • all were at 4/1 or shorter
  • all in fields of 6-9 runners
  • all in handicap company
  • three at Class 4
  • three in cheekpieces
  • three going right handed

My other area of interest here is the jockey booking, because although Adam Kirby doesn't ride many of Ian Williams' horses, I'm going to suggest it's not because they don't work well together, because they've actually got a great record of...

from which...

  • male runners are 20/58 (34.5%) for 30.46pts (+52.5%)
  • those competing for £2k to £8k are 20/49 (40.8%) for 39.46pts (+80.5%)
  • those sent off shorter than a 6/1 official SP are 19/40 (47.5%) for 33.24pts (+83.1%)
  • 3 to 5 yr olds are 15/38 (39.5%) for 33.06pts (+87%)
  • those racing against 4 to 8 rivals are 13/32 (40.6%) for 14.07pts (+44%)
  • class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 6.12pts (+61.2%)
  • and here on the July course : 1/1 (100%) for 0.77pts (+7.7%)

...whilst Williams + Kirby + males + 6/1 max SP + sub-£8k winner's prize produces...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Matewan @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!