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Stat of the Day, 14th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.40 Ayr : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5 (Went right start, led, headed over 1f out, weakened towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the pointers are on the racecard...

A winner last time out (pretty comfortably too, over 5f at this track 12 days ago), from a yard with a good record at this venue as denoted by C1 and C5, which is put into numbers by the Trainers Course 5 year report. The bottom line is my own saved Query Tool angle, highlighting a handful of trainers to keep an eye on here at Bath.

So, why Michael Attwater at Bath?

Well, since the start of 2017, his overall record is fairly nondescript at...

...but in handicap contests here at Bath over the same period, his runners are...

...and although it's not a huge sample size, there are too many winners/runners for it to be a coincidence when 14% of his winners are coming from 3.4% of his runners. And it's even more striking when you look closer at those 31 runners because they are...

  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) from male runners
  • 9/28 921.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) over 5/5½f
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 21.42pts (+89.3%) aged 3-6 yrs old
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 22.42pts (+97.5%) during June to September
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 16.77pts (+64.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 18.32pts (+140.9%) sent off at 6/4 to 4/1
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 8.46pts (+169.2%) from LTO winners...

...whilst 3-6 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 4/1 over 5/5½f during June to September within 25 days of their last run are...

...with the two defeated horses finishing as runners-up and LTO winners winning 3 from 3 for 7.81pts (+260.3% ROI) profit, including Cappananty Con's win here LTO 12 days ago...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!