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Monday Musings: A Bold Bid

For many years, the counter-argument to attending the big events has always been that you can see much more on the television screen, writes Tony Stafford. Yesterday’s Arc action, exclusive to At the Races, soon to be Sky Racing, had to be spliced between Uttoxeter jumping and a mixed Irish card from Tipperary. Oh for the days when BBC was able to do the thing properly.

That’s probably unfair, especially as ITV, the current terrestrial home of racing, did a solid job. One advantage of for once not being in Paris – or Chantilly as it was the last two years – was that the undercard and its largely British-trained domination, offered many stories. Thus I can largely leave Enable’s second win to her own devices and other commentators.

Events started off with a notably successful gamble. The Arqana Arc sale, in Saint Cloud on big-race eve, seemed rather insipid beforehand, but lot 4, Lily’s Candle, a dual-winning daughter of French-based stallion Style Vendome, realised €390,000 to the bid of US owner, Martin S Schwartz. Eighteen hours later, still in the care of her previous trainer, she belied her status as second-biggest outsider at 27-1 by winning the opening Prix Marcel Boussac.

That recouped more than £200,000, less disbursements, fully deserved to trainer Fabrice Vermeulen, jockey Pierre Charles-Boudot, who is going to be champion this year, and the stable staff.

It was a fair day for Mr Schwartz as last night at Belmont Park, another of his French acquisitions, Onthemoonagain, a daughter of Cape Cross whose last run in France was when unplaced behind Rhododendron in last year’s Prix de l’Opera on the same card, finished runner-up in the Flower Bowl.

And it was more than a fair day too for Boudot who also teamed up for the Arc nearly man, William Haggas, to collect the seven-furlong Prix de la Foret on One Master. This was a fourth win in eight starts for the daughter of Fastnet Rock, who was allowed to start 47-1 despite winning a nice Group 3 prize in Tipperary last time out.

At Doncaster in August last year, One Master made a belated but highly-promising debut, staying on into third behind Equitation over six furlongs. I was there to see a filly called Betty Grable and went away happy with her keeping on sixth, two and a half lengths behind One Master and four adrift of the winner.

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One Master duly picked up her maiden efficiently at Yarmouth under Ryan Moore and was carrying a never-used 75 opening handicap mark when winning an Ascot Listed race next time, bringing about a 30lb hike in one move. For handicap aficionados, Betty Grable is now on 47, has yet to win and last time finished eighth off that mark!

Haggas’s ability to develop talent has always been evident. Sea of Class’s rise through the ranks from her narrow debut defeat at Newmarket barely five months ago, through two Listed wins at Newbury and on to the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks, has been masterful. Yesterday’s all-but successful effort in the Arc where in another couple of strides she would have swept past Enable continued the progression.

Haggas also is at least partly responsible for another of 2018’s success stories. When I wrote about Archie Watson’s unerring first year of his training career some months ago, he had been mopping up claimers and minor all-weather races. Yesterday he went within a few strides of collecting a rare Group 1, the Prix de l’Abbaye, with a two-year-old.

As the season has worn on, so his sure touch with first-season horses has become ever more obvious. Soldier’s Call’s near miss under Oisin Murphy after pegging back the flying, but fallible Battaash, as Mabs Cross in the old red colours and Gold Vibe went by late on, must have been heart-breaking for Archie.

My initial encounter with him was a brief one, but first impressions they say, are important. Archie, having left Haggas where he was assistant trainer, took over Saxon Gate Stables around two years ago. It had been developed and improved by the late Julia Tooth and continued by her partner Paul Fitzsimons. Watson’s good start had obviously been noticed by Julia’s father Raymond and in the Epsom parade ring last summer (2017) taking the chance I told Archie: “Raymond Tooth is very impressed by your start.” His answer: “Ok” had the benefit of brevity and also revealed this is someone not for diverting. Fair enough. That’s the impression he conveys to his fellow trainers in Lambourn, by all accounts.

That single-mindedness has brought 90 domestic and several overseas wins, but none that would have compared with a juvenile win in an all-aged Group 1. Domestically, Watson has 90 wins, 48 with two-year-olds. Overall he is going at a 22% strike rate and half of his 46 juveniles to have run are winners.

I had already congratulated David and Emma Armstrong in the York unsaddling enclosure back in August after the Coolmore Nunthorpe. Mabs Cross had flashed over the line with Bryan Smart-trained Alpha Delphini, but it would have been hard to find anybody that thought she had been beaten.

But beaten she was by the unconsidered fellow Yorkshire-trained sprinter. I’d had a small bet at York – got 20-1, she started 14’s – but I’m sure the owners will have been more than happy with yesterday’s consolation. Alpha Delphini was 11th yesterday – Sod’s Law.

Six years ago their first star sprinter, Mayson, was touched off in the Abbaye by Wizz Kid in his final race before entering stud. He’d won the July Cup on his previous start. To win the Abbaye with a filly was a triumph and completed a rewarding weekend for trainer Michael Dods, who the previous day won a Listed prize at Ascot with Intense Romance.

Ballydoyle’s weekend prospects looked less obvious than has often been the case and successive St Leger winners Capri and Kew Gardens were not discredited, close up in fifth and seventh, with the pacemaking Nelson (181-1!) in eighth barely four lengths behind Enable. There will be plenty more to come from them all.

More immediately, I’m looking forward to seeing whether Aidan O’Brien has entered Il Paradiso, a big bold staying type by Galileo, in next weekend’s 10-furlong Zetland Stakes. That was the race in which Kew Gardens rounded out his two-year-old campaign with a defeat of Dee Ex Bee; and Il Paradiso, though no match for Turgenev’s acceleration going into the dip in their mile maiden on Saturday, finished with a rare rattle up the hill.

Even closer to hand, I’m driving up to Pontefract to see Ray’s Sod’s Law – the real one! – tackle better opposition than he beat when opening his tally at Ffos Las last month. It would have helped if Mr Haggas had not found a 95-rated horse to run and cause us to be 3lb out of the weights, but the ground will be suitable and Hughie Morrison is in form.

Then on Tuesday at 11 a.m. it’s Book 1 of Tattersall’s October Yearling Sale. If you want to see all the big name owners and trainers close up and free of charge, go along to Park Paddocks. But beware doing a Kevin Howard. One year he arrived in mid-sale and ended up in the Bidders’ Only area opposite the rostrum. Spotting me across the way, he started gesticulating to attract my attention. “Is that a bid, sir?” he was asked with a six-figure sum on the board.  I made a suitable gesture in his direction and all was well. He hasn’t been since.

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

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In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2017

Bank Holiday Monday's Result :

4.05 Cartmel : Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG - 3rd at 9/2 : Held up in rear, headway after 14th, no impression last, went 3rd towards finish...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossall @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

An opening mark of 76 looks very workable to me about this 2yr old who has shown improvement in each of his three starts to date, finishing as a runner-up over 5f last time out.

That run was at Thirsk 24 days ago and he now drops in class for his handicap debut and becomes of further interest to me, as his trainer Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down one grade are 48/354 (13.6% SR) for 165.3pts (+46.7% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, with those returning from a short break of 16 to 25 days winning 16 of 101 (15.8%) and making 56.1pts (+55.5%) in the process.

Today's jockey Paul Mulrennan is Rossall's only rider to date, so they've already begun to forge an understanding and Paul comes here aiming to add to his tally of 8 Carlisle wins already this season. Those eight wins have come from just 30 rides (26.7% SR) and have rewarded followers with profits of 20.9pts at an ROI of 69.5%. And, from those 30 rides, he is 5/10 (50%) for 21.5pts (+215%) on horses trained by Michael Dods!

And finally, Paul Mulrennan is one of the few jockeys you can regularly trust to get a favourite over the line, as he's been profitable to follow on favs in each of the past eight seasons, winning 192 times on 500 favourites (38.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 72.2pts (+14.4% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 104/308 (33.8%) for 57.3pts (+18.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 93/222 (41.9%) for 43.8pts (+19.7%)
  • and here at Carlisle : 12/31 (38.7%) for 4.95pts (+16%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rossall @ 3/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.45pm on Monday, although there was some 10/3 BOG at Ladbrokes.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Chester : Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Held up behind, ridden and headway over 2f out, chased winner over 1f out, kept on and held near finish, beaten by half a length .

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

I'll bring you more details on this very shortly...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Ayr...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Chester : Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Held up behind, ridden and headway over 2f out, chased winner over 1f out, kept on and held near finish, beaten by half a length .

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

A relatively simple one to end a frustrating month...

A 5yr old gelding in good nick : made the frame in 8 of his last 12 runs, winning three times.

His trainer Michael Dods has 23 winners from 205 (11.2% SR) for profits of 101.8pts (+49.7% ROI) here at Ayr over the last four seasons and of those 205 runners...

  • males are 20/177 (11.3%) for 108.7pts (+61.4%)
  • those last seen 16-60 days ago are 16/123 (13%) for 147pts (+119.5%)
  • on Good ground : 11/78 (14.1%) for 139.4pts (+178.7%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey, Callum Rodriguez are 2/7 (28.6%) for 34.5pts (+492.9%)

...and that's the simple logic behind...a 1pt win bet on Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Ayr...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st May 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.10 Lingfield : Rattle On @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/4 Held up in mid-division, headway over 1f out, went 4th inside final furlong, kept on, unable to get on terms.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Trinity Star10/3 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who is 5/9 (55.5% SR) for 11.63pts (+129.2% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter over 1m to 1m2f in Class 5/6 Turf handicaps, including...

  • those ridden by Paul Mulrennan are 5/8 (62.5%) for 12.63pts (+157.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/4 (75%) for 9.49pts (+237.3%)
  • running within a week of their last run : 2/2 (100%) for 3.15pts (+157.5%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 for 5.36pts

And his trainer, Michael Dods' own record here at Ayr since the start of 2014 stands at 18/176 (10.2% SR) for 88.4pts (+50.2% ROI), of which 3 to 6 yr old male handicappers are 10/95 (10.5%) for 97.6pts (+102.8%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Trinity Star10/3 BOG which was on offer at Betway, Bet365 & Betvictor at 7.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Monday Musings: Flying Fillies and French Fancies

The vegetation is getting that tired lived-in look all around, writes Tony Stafford. The days are drawing in to the extent that natural-light evening race meetings need to kick-off at around five p.m. to get the races in. Already, just ten weeks on from Royal Ascot – was it that long ago? – memories of the rhododendrons along the Swinley Road past Berkshire Golf Club on the way to the track or the thrusting blooms of the same species bordering either side of the narrow path from the Gosforth Park Hotel down to see the Plate the following week, are becoming elusive.

We never had rhododendrons in the big garden where the kids grew up, but there were mauve hydrangeas. Even in the little space behind the house where the “new” we are now, there’s a lovely hydrangea, still hanging on to decent deep red explosions but not a patch on her earlier incarnation back in early summer.

My wife always reminds me of “your favourite flower” when it starts to arrive. Trust me to have gone for the plant that just failed to get up when the two Coolmore-owned Galileo fillies of that name fought out the finish of the Breast Cancer Research Debutante Stakes at The Curragh yesterday.

Rhododendron had collected her first victory at Glorious Goodwood; Hydrangea stayed at home where she gained a first success before the pair gave a pretty serious joint audition for the Moyglare early next month, aiming to be the next Minding or Seventh Heaven from the latest batch of distaffers. The pair drew well clear of their opponents at the finish.

The pre-eminent Aidan O’Brien 2016 juvenile colt has been Caravaggio, but increasingly you get the impression talking to a few of the insiders that he might be all about speed. While hardly a snail, Churchill, who maintained an unbeaten record with another workmanlike effort on the same card, could conceivably become the Guineas/Derby principal for 2017.

I’ve probably mentioned it before. Over the years I’ve been a ravenous consumer of books, novels principally, and if it took me a week to devour one, that was an oddity. Contrastingly, there has been a single volume by my bedside lamp probably since the Derby, and I’m up to page 715 (about 200 to go) of former Labour and then Social Democrat leading light Roy Jenkins’ biography of Winston Churchill.

We’ve reached the crucial period of World War 2 when the energy has turned in favour of the Allies, but it would have been inconceivable to have got to that position without Churchill’s almost singular opposition to Nazism. I’ll say no more, but suggest if you’ve got a few months to spare, try to find it. It actually found me and I’m grateful to the unknown donor.

Your first 30 days for just £1

It was females all the way last weekend with Mecca’s Angel putting in a devastating performance to win the Coolmore Nunthorpe at York. Owner David Metcalfe and trainer Michael Dods apparently were unsure whether to let her take her chance until the rains come. They must be wishing now that the last few drops had stayed away as she was only 0.08sec outside York’s flying track record.

Mr Metcalfe, whom I do not know, wisely plans to sell her at the end of her racing career. From almost first-hand experience I can say it’s the only thing for a small-time owner to do, unless you want to pay nomination and insurance fees for covers to such as Galileo or Frankel.

The Frankel fillies were out for the Lowther on the same afternoon, but it was Queen Kindly, the result of the union between the great unbeaten one and also Lowther-winning Lady of the Desert that won rather than highly-rated Fair Eva who was third. She is now being presented as a possible 1,000 Guineas candidate for Richard Fahey and owner Jaber Abdullah, but Aidan’s pair of exotic blooms (and probably a good few more from that source) lie in wait.

Jeremy Noseda has not had too much luck at the top end recently, but he’s always had a high opinion of the US-bred Nemoralia, who beat the boys and her elders for an emphatic victory in the Group 3 City of York Stakes. I didn’t see his post-race interview, but I’m told Noseda looked a little underwhelmed, suggesting: “A Group 1 filly ought to win a Group 3!” She’ll be back up to the top level sooner or later, probably in the land of her birth, where she showed ability and aptitude as a juvenile.

Lady Aurelia was the sensation of Royal Ascot and yesterday she travelled over from the states once again to win the Darley Prix Morny at Deauville having led from the start in the six-furlong group 1.

Only four took her on; the Aidan O’Brien-trained Peace Envoy – rather like the politician of that description, whose job is to test out the strengths of opponents – and Clive Cox’s Tis Marvellous. She never looked in trouble, but it seems the others are catching her up. The margin was far less extravagant this time.

Only two locals took part, second-placed Alramha trained by Freddy Head and Al Johrah, fourth, previously runner-up to Tis Marvellous in the Prix Robert Papin, four weeks earlier. Both the home hopes are fillies, so no French-trained colt participated in this most important midsummer juvenile Group 1, and neither was there a single French-trained colt in the Robert Papin.

We’ve just got through another Arqana Yearling sale in Deauville when demand was strong and many domestic trainers and also international owners were successful bidders. They seem happy enough to have their acquisitions trained in Chantilly or (if by runaway leading trainer Jean-Claude Rouget) in the south-west in Pau, but might be a little disturbed to learn that statistic if they didn’t know it already.

Deauville was also a happy hunting ground yesterday for two much-respected English trainers. James Fanshawe found the perfect opportunity for the progressive Speedy Boarding, carrying the celebrated Helena Springfield colours, in the Group 1 Jean Romanet Stakes. She found this company a little more agreeable than tackling Minding, as she had last time in Ireland after a Group 2 win at Sandown.

Then Hughie Morrison, ever adept at squeezing progress from his horses, sent Nearly Caught back to the scene of a recent Listed win at Deauville, and master-minded a repeat all-way-way effort in the Prix Kergorlay (Group 2) worth £50k-plus. Nearly Caught was third in the Northumberland Plate and looks sure to try to go a few places nearer than last year’s Cesarewitch fifth. The trainer will be eagerly awaiting the weights.

That victory was great news for owner Tony Solomons, former head honcho at the Singer & Friedlander merchant bank, once lavish sponsors of a major handicap chase at the late Stan Clarke’s Uttoxeter. By the way did you know that back in the early 1960’s before his building empire took off, Stan trained horses from home in Staffordshire and I think sent out eight winners?

There was always a lavish lunch at the bank before their race each year and Andy Stewart of Big Buck’s fame was an ever-present in the days immediately before he went to market with his highly-successful Cenkos financial group.

I never forget Tony Solomons’ birthday, other than the actual date in late January (26th?). It also happens to be the same day as three friends, David Loder, Wilf Storey and my Lexington pal Dean Grimm, whose mother Virginia Kraft-Payson owned and bred the 12-length Irish Derby and six-length King George winner St Jovite. Three of them make the Racing Post on that day; Dean doesn’t need to.

Finally, I’d like to be the last to congratulate Nick Skelton on his wonderful Olympics triumph. I was with him before one of either Adrakhan or Notnowsam’s runs for his son Dan last season and we got on to show jumping. He said he was waiting for his horse Big Star to come back after being injured. If you didn’t know, he came!

SotD, Monday 25th April 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.35 Sandown: Sire De Grugy @ 14/1 E/W BOG 4th at 12/1 (Tracked leader until after 2nd, 2nd again next, led 5th, not fluent when pressed 3 out, soon headed, no chance with winner, lost 2nd at the last, weakened run-in)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

Well, firstly, his trainer, Michael Dods has a record of 26 winners from 205 runners in Ayr handicaps since the start of the 2010 campaign and this 12.7% strike rate has generated 118.5pts of level stakes profit, broken down as follows...

  • male runners are 21/168 (12.5% SR) for 127.9pts (+76.1% ROI)
  • on good / good to firm ground, they are 12/113 (10.6% SR) for 103.1pts (+91.2% ROI)
  • 4 to 6 yr olds are 15/109 (13.8% SR) for 145.6pts (+133.5% ROI)
  • those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 price range are 16/71 (22.5% SR) for 16.7pts (+23.6% ROI)
  • those with 11 to 16 previous runs under their belts are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 166.2pts (+426.1% ROI)

The next point to note is that Sea Wolf is taking a step down in class today and over the last six seasons, Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down a grade are 43/334 (12.9% SR) for 141.1pts (+42.2% ROI) with 4yr olds winning 12 of 74 (16.2% SR) for 157.5pts (+212.9% ROI) and those running here at Ayr are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 146.1pts (+312.6% ROI)

Michael's 4 yr olds dropping down a grade to run in Ayr handicaps are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 138.3pts (+728.1% ROI)

And whilst Sea Wolf's 170-day absence from the track might be a negative for some people, Michael Dods does have a decent record at getting his runners ready first time out. During the April to October months over the last six years, his flat handicappers running after a break of 4 to 8 months are 22 from 148 (14.9% SR) for 107.4pts (+72.6% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those runners are...

  • 18/112 (16.1% SR) for 89.1pts (+79.5% ROI) in April
  • 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 39.5pts (+63.7% ROI) when sent off at 9/4 to 8/1
  • 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 38.3pts (+83.2% ROI) when ridden by Paul Mulrennan
  • 8/41 (19.5% SR) for 73pts (+177.9% ROI) as 4 yr olds

The Dods/Mulrennan/April angle with horses priced at 9/4 to 8/1 is worth 10 winners from 23 (43.5% SR) and level stakes profits of 40.3pts (+175.2% ROI), of which 3/4 yr olds are 7/14 (50% SR) for 33.6pts (+240.2% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Ladbrokes, Hills, Boylesports and/or BetVictor, who were the five market leaders at 7.20am. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

P.S. "Normal" service timings will be resumed this evening, now I've caught up on some sleep!

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.35 Sandown: Sire De Grugy @ 14/1 E/W BOG 4th at 12/1 (Tracked leader until after 2nd, 2nd again next, led 5th, not fluent when pressed 3 out, soon headed, no chance with winner, lost 2nd at the last, weakened run-in)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

Well, firstly, his trainer, Michael Dods has a record of 26 winners from 205 runners in Ayr handicaps since the start of the 2010 campaign and this 12.7% strike rate has generated 118.5pts of level stakes profit, broken down as follows...

  • male runners are 21/168 (12.5% SR) for 127.9pts (+76.1% ROI)
  • on good / good to firm ground, they are 12/113 (10.6% SR) for 103.1pts (+91.2% ROI)
  • 4 to 6 yr olds are 15/109 (13.8% SR) for 145.6pts (+133.5% ROI)
  • those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 price range are 16/71 (22.5% SR) for 16.7pts (+23.6% ROI)
  • those with 11 to 16 previous runs under their belts are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 166.2pts (+426.1% ROI)

The next point to note is that Sea Wolf is taking a step down in class today and over the last six seasons, Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down a grade are 43/334 (12.9% SR) for 141.1pts (+42.2% ROI) with 4yr olds winning 12 of 74 (16.2% SR) for 157.5pts (+212.9% ROI) and those running here at Ayr are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 146.1pts (+312.6% ROI)

Michael's 4 yr olds dropping down a grade to run in Ayr handicaps are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 138.3pts (+728.1% ROI)

And whilst Sea Wolf's 170-day absence from the track might be a negative for some people, Michael Dods does have a decent record at getting his runners ready first time out. During the April to October months over the last six years, his flat handicappers running after a break of 4 to 8 months are 22 from 148 (14.9% SR) for 107.4pts (+72.6% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those runners are...

  • 18/112 (16.1% SR) for 89.1pts (+79.5% ROI) in April
  • 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 39.5pts (+63.7% ROI) when sent off at 9/4 to 8/1
  • 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 38.3pts (+83.2% ROI) when ridden by Paul Mulrennan
  • 8/41 (19.5% SR) for 73pts (+177.9% ROI) as 4 yr olds

The Dods/Mulrennan/April angle with horses priced at 9/4 to 8/1 is worth 10 winners from 23 (43.5% SR) and level stakes profits of 40.3pts (+175.2% ROI), of which 3/4 yr olds are 7/14 (50% SR) for 33.6pts (+240.2% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Ladbrokes, Hills, Boylesports and/or BetVictor, who were the five market leaders at 7.20am. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

P.S. "Normal" service timings will be resumed this evening, now I've caught up on some sleep!

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2015

Another good run from a SotD horse benefiting from perfect jockey tactics at Newmarket on Friday evening meant a third winner of the week at a decent value price too.

John Egan settled Sixties Pilgrim in the second wave of runners poised for a late run and when the line of horses ahead of them parted with less than two furlongs to run, our duo seized their opportunity immediately, leading by the one pole and putting the race to bed very quickly indeed.

The chasing pack had no answer for our runner's turn of foot and by the time our filly hit the line, she was three and a half lengths clear of the runner-up in a comprehensive victory.

The final cherry on the cake was taking 7/2 BOG last night and getting paid out at double the 7/4 SP. I'd like for nothing more than a fourth winner of the week and that quest takes me North of the Border for Saturday evening's...

7.40 Ayr :

A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap sprint over 5f on good to soft ground (at present!), where Michael Dods' 6 yr old mare Gowanharry will attempt to make it third time lucky in recent course and distance runs and is priced at 11/4 BOG with Bet365 amongst others to do so.

On first inspection, a horse with a 0/8 record at this track, all over course and distance, isn't an obvious pick, but regular readers will know that I'm not one for picking the obvious! Yes, she is 0 from 8 here over course and distance, but she has made the frame in 7 of those 8 races, finishing as a runner-up on four occasions, going down by a short head, 0.75L, a neck and 0.5L in those defeats.

The last two of those runs were as recently as 19 and 33 days ago respectively, so despite not quite getting her nose in front, she's clearly in good nick and it could be argued (by me, anyway!) that this is possibly the weakest race she's contested for a while.

Now, having a horse with a 0 from 8 record at a track can be damaging for a trainer's figures, but despite her frequent crossbar-rattling, trainer Michael Dods does well enough here at the track, which is probably why he's persisting with her at this venue, because if truth be told, with a little luck she could well be 4/8, but that is, admittedly, pure conjecture.

And so, to Michael Dods...

Since the start of the 2010 campaign, his handicappers here at Ayr in the very broad 2/1 to 16/1 price range are 23 from 1438 (15.5% SR) for 31.6pts (+21.4% ROI) and whilst those ballpark figures are good enough to base any selection upon, it doesn't hurt to drill down further. So, from the 148 qualifying runners...

  • those aged 3 to 8 are 22/129 (28.75% SR) for 44.3pts (+34.3% ROI), of which...
  • ...those with 2 to 25 previous handicap runs are 19/106 (17.9% SR) for 43.8pts (+41.4% ROI), of which...
  • ...those racing within 45 days of their last outing are 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 56.8pts (+61.1% ROI).

Paul Mulrennan is in the saddle...

And he generally teams up well with Michael Dods, including a 3 from 10 record already this month, but more specifically and relevant to the contest in hand, Paul has ridden 10 winners from 47 rides (21.3% SR) on board Michael Dods handicappers here at Ayr since the start of the 2008 campaign. Those winners have generated profits of £207 to a £10 level stake, which is a 44.1% return on your money.

Of the 47, there's a 6/18 ( 33.33% SR) record producing 28pts (+155.8% ROI) profit from 5/6 yr old horses, whilst those priced up at 6/1 and shorter have won 9 of 23 (39.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.9% ROI).

The Paul Mulrennan / Michael Dods / Ayr handicaps / 5-6 yr olds at 6-1 and shorter combination has 5 winners from 10 runners (50% SR) and 18.9pts (189% ROI) profit to date and I'm hopeful that Gowanharry will improve those numbers today!

As I intimated at the top of the piece, I took my 11/4 BOG from Bet365, but as of 10.45pm on Friday night, at least 4 other firms were offering the same price, so you should all manage to get on at those odds.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2014

We backed Certificate at 7/2 on Saturday and a 25p Rule 4 deduction reduced our bet down to 21/8 BOG, which again proved substantially better than the 15/8 starting price.

And had we had a bit more luck in running, we might well have been celebrating at the finish. Unfortunately, our horse got boxed in at the 2 pole and didn't see daylight until there was only half a furlong to run. The eventual winner and main threat Jailawi had not only the run of the race, but had also set off for home by this point.

Freddie Tylicki urged as much as he could out of his ride and stayed on well, but was ultimately denied by a length and a quarter. Its easy to look back and see the race going against us, but there's little we can do in reality, other than dust ourselves down and go again in today's...

4.45 Ripon:

Now, a very competitive Class 2 handicap wouldn't necessarily be everyone's first port of call when they were scraping about for a result, but I assure there is more than pure sentiment behind me selecting the 10yr old veteran of 89 previous flat races, Osteopathic Remedy today, trust me!

Firstly, he's a 4-times course and distance winner and won last time out at Thirsk...

Former course and distance winners returning to Ripon on the back of a win last time out have won 12 of 41 races when sent off below 12/1 in the last four years.

This 29.3% strike rate has so far generated 27.1pts profit from level stakes at an ROI of 66.1%. 26 of the 41 (63.4%) have made the frame with E/W backers making 47.5pts (+57.9% ROI) profit, which is handy to know in case we want to go E/W later.

The horse is trained by Michael Dods and will be ridden by Connor Beasley claiming 3lbs...

We're likely to see the horse run in the 4/1 to 9/1 price range today, unless there's a flood of money for him, but Mr Dods' horses have run well in the past under a 3lb claimer within those odds parameters, winning 11 of 51 Flat handicaps in the last four seasons.

That's a strike rate of 21.6% and the level stakes profits of 27.5pts have produced a return above stakes invested of 53.9%.

Our runner's recent win was the first time he'd made the frame in 10 starts...

But that's not a negative to me. Very often in the past, when horses have won after a poor run of form, they have gone on to win again.

More specifically under the following criteria: Won LTO after at least three successive unplaced efforts / Running at same or within one class as LTO / Running at same trip or within 2f of LTO / Running over at least a mile.

Horses fulfilling those four key components of my microsystem have, since the start of the 2009 season, won 154 of 986 flat races at a strike rate of 15.6%. That's a low looking rate for SotD purposes, but it's actually excellent from such a huge sample size.

Those winners have generated a massive 252pts at an ROI to date of 25.6%

So, the general stats point to a good run for Osteopathic Remedy, but what about him specifically?

Well, he's massively exposed, of course, with 89 runs to his name, but 13 wins (14.6% SR) and a total of 29 placed efforts (32.6%) have made him profitable to back over the years.

In fact had you backed him to a £10 stake at Betfair SP in each of those 89 runs so far, you'd now be sitting on a profit of over £1040 (+117.2% ROI).

He's 12/54 at this trip, 7 from 42 at this level and 4 from 13 here at Ripon (4/12 over C&D). He'll get the forecasted good ground, as he's got five wins under such conditions so far, but he also won't mind any rain that might well appear before race time, as he also has a good record with cut in the ground.

He won this race last year off a mark of 90 (the same as today) and Connor Beasley was in the saddle again that day and he really loves this race. If you further analyse his 4/12 record over course and distance, you'll see that all four wins have actually come in this race, where his record over the years quite amazingly reads 131411.

He always gives it his all in this race, but time catches up with everyone eventually and he's slightly up in weight today (6lb penalty halved by the jockey claim) and with just those slight nagging doubts, I'm going to hedge my bets and take the 0.5pts E/W option with Osteopathic Remedy at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor. For all the other prices, please...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2014

Another nice bookie bashing win yesterday as Bookem Danno rallied gamely to win by the best part of three lengths yesterday. He was headed three fences from home and looked one paced and beaten, but he'd wisely saved something for the run in and Richard Johnson squeezed that little bit extra out of him and he pulled clear in the final half furlong on the flat.

We took 6/1 about an 11/4 favourite, which meant we got paid out at 218% of SP, another reminder of the paramount importance of using the BOG bookies.

Time is of the essence this morning (I'm unexpectedly running late!), so let's cut to the chase and quickly take a look at the...

3.55 Redcar:

Where One Boy might look like a bit of an ambitious punt, but I think he's definitely overpriced at 11/1 BOG with Corals.

His trainer Michael Dods has had 14 winners from his 65 runners in Redcar handicaps since 2010 at odds of 12/1 or shorter. The 21.5% strike rate has produced 35.8pts level stakes profits, an ROI of 55.1% and with over 40% of these runners making the frame an E/W bet looks on the cards.

He calls upon the services of 3lb claimer Connor Beasley here today and in the last three seasons, the Dods yard are 11/56 at odds of 12/1 or shorter when their horse was ridden with a 3lb claim. 11/56 is a decent enough strike rate at 19.64% and the resultant 18.5pts profit are equal to a 33% return on stakes.

Overall, Connor has ridden 23 winners from 176 rides for Michael Dods, a 13.1% strike rate generating 48.5pts profit at an ROI of 27.6%, so it's a flourishing partnership to keep an eye on.

As for One Boy himself, he has already won on good to firm ground, he's 3 from 8 at this trip and he's a course and distance winner. He might not have won in Class 4 company yet, but has competed in much better races (up to Listed class) than this without being disgraced. He's 1 from 2 here at Redcar, and in a race that doesn't look too strong on paper, he must have a chance of making the frame.

Corals look too long at 11/1, so it's a 0.5pts E/W bet on One Boy at 11/1 BOG with Corals today, but be sure to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.55 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Trainer Stats: 26th June 2013

HENRY CANDY

Henry Candy in flying form

Andy Newton’s got six more flat yards that are in cracking form to look out for this week…… Read more

Sat TV Trends: 13th April 2013

KemptonNot the biggest Saturday in the calendar, but there are still seven LIVE C4 races to get stuck into - Andy Newton's on hand with all the key trends & stats...... Read more