Wednesday's pick was...
3.10 Southwell : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1 (Mid-division, took keen hold, mistake 1st, lost place and not fluent 6th, no impression 2 out).
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Claiming Stakes for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...
As usual, we'll start with the racecard that I've expanded to show my two angles from the parameters I have set in the report suite...
This shows a 10 yr old gelding in prime form having won his last three outings, the latest of which was a Class 4, 6f contest here at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Most of you know this already, as we backed him for SotD that day too (see here, as much of that piece is still very valid).
He now drops down 2 classes to run in this claimer and I think he should have too much for a group of rivals who look to be (a) out of form, (b) in need of a run or (c) both!
The reports and icons tell us that trainer Michael Herrington has done well at this venue for a number of years (TC5), especially thanks to this horse, jockey and horse/jockey combo, so let's take a quick look at the numbers, starting with the horse...
...whose 7 from 24 here at Wolverhampton includes...
- 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.54pts (at BFSP, of course) at an ROI of 170.2%
- 6/9 (66.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.8%) at 5/1 and shorter
- 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.03pts (+158.6%) in fields of 6-10 runners
- 3/4 (75%) for 17.88pts (+446.9%) after a win LTO
- 3/3 (100%) for 17.86pts (+595.3%) with Tom Eaves in the saddle
- 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.17pts (+239%) at Class 6
- and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) in claimers
...whilst in fields of 6-10 runners at 5/1 or shorter competing for less than £5k, Steelriver is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 10.4pts (+173.3% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.
Next we turn our attention to the trainer and his recent record at this venue...
...and these include...
- 16/58 (27.6%) for 50.2pts (+86.6%) at odds of evens to 11/1
- 14/74 (18.9%) for 48.2pts (+65.1%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs
- 10/34 (29.4%) for 44.3pts (+130.3%) at Class 6
- 8/12 (66.6%) for 54.3pts (+452.1%) with LTO winners
- and 6/23 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+69.1%) with Tom Eaves doing the steering
...whilst LTO winners sent off shorter than 7/1 in Class 6 contests are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 18.9pts (+472.6% ROI)
And finally, back to the trainer/jockey combo, which I've just said was standing at 6 wins from 23 since the start of 2018. Those figures include of relevance today...
- 3 winners from 10 (30%) for 8.03pts (+80.3%) at Class 6
- and 3 from 3 (100%) for 21.96pts (+732.1%) on LTO winners
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available in several places at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!