Posts

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2020

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

3.10 Southwell : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1 (Mid-division, took keen hold, mistake 1st, lost place and not fluent 6th, no impression 2 out).

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Claiming Stakes for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we'll start with the racecard that I've expanded to show my two angles from the parameters I have set in the report suite...

This shows a 10 yr old gelding in prime form having won his last three outings, the latest of which was a Class 4, 6f contest here at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Most of you know this already, as we backed him for SotD that day too (see here, as much of that piece is still very valid).

He now drops down 2 classes to run in this claimer and I think he should have too much for a group of rivals who look to be (a) out of form, (b) in need of a run or (c) both!

The reports and icons tell us that trainer Michael Herrington has done well at this venue for a number of years (TC5), especially thanks to this horse, jockey and horse/jockey combo, so let's take a quick look at the numbers, starting with the horse...

...whose 7 from 24 here at Wolverhampton includes...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.54pts (at BFSP, of course) at an ROI of 170.2%
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.8%) at 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.03pts (+158.6%) in fields of 6-10 runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 17.88pts (+446.9%) after a win LTO
  • 3/3 (100%) for 17.86pts (+595.3%) with Tom Eaves in the saddle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.17pts (+239%) at Class 6
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) in claimers

...whilst in fields of 6-10 runners at 5/1 or shorter competing for less than £5k, Steelriver is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 10.4pts (+173.3% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.

Next we turn our attention to the trainer and his recent record at this venue...

...and these include...

  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 50.2pts (+86.6%) at odds of evens to 11/1
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 48.2pts (+65.1%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 44.3pts (+130.3%) at Class 6
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 54.3pts (+452.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 6/23 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+69.1%) with Tom Eaves doing the steering

...whilst LTO winners sent off shorter than 7/1 in Class 6 contests are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 18.9pts (+472.6% ROI)

And finally, back to the trainer/jockey combo, which I've just said was standing at 6 wins from 23 since the start of 2018. Those figures include of relevance today...

  • 3 winners from 10 (30%) for 8.03pts (+80.3%) at Class 6
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 21.96pts (+732.1%) on LTO winners

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available in several places at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2020

/14 Comments/in /by

Thursday's pick was...

5.40 Lingfield : Almqvist @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Raced wide chasing leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong) : one of a couple of poor Johnston runners today.

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

It looks like a day of poor racing to me and the majority of runners on my overnight shortlist have failed on the final check ie price/value, so we're going with one that might need a bit of luck but is a far bigger price than his record/stats suggest he should be, but let's see.

We start off with the racecard as usual which shows that this 10 yr old gelding is returning to the track after just over three months' rest to attempt to complete a hat-trick (all here at Wolverhampton by the way)...

...you'll also see that he has a good record here at Wolverhampton (Horses for Courses) and that his trainer has also done well here (C5 icon and also one of my Wolverhampton trainers to look out for : the "Wolv" angle), so let's assess those separately.

We start off with Steelriver's record here at Wolverhampton, as he transforms a career record of...

...into the following here at Wolverhampton...

And of those 23 previous runs here, he is...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+43.9% ROI) for trainer Michael Herrington (more on him very shortly)
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+43.9% ROI) in races worth less than £8k
  • 5/13 (41.7%) for 9.11pts (+75.9%) since the start of 2019
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 5.97pts (+66.3%) in fields of 10/11 runners
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.19pts (+119.8%) stepping up in class
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.24pts (+141.5%) after a win LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 4.23pts (+211.5%) under jockey Tom Eaves
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.8pts (+60%) at Class 4

And now to the trainer Michael Herrington's record at Wolverhampton, where in handicaps he has achieved the following...

And of those 96 handicappers to run here in the past almost 4.5 years...

  • those aged 5 or older are 14/63 (22.2%) for 46.63pts (+74%)
  • since the start of 2018, they are 13/71 (18.3%) for 36.89pts (+52%)
  • 5yo+ since 1/1/18 are 12/45 (26.7%) for 53.34pts (+118.5%) *this is where my interest lies
  • over this 6f C&D : 7/31 (22.6%) for 32.32pts (+104.3%)
  • LTO Winners are 6/13 (46.7%) for 36.08pts (+277.6%)
  • and in June/July : 4/10 (40%) for 23.84pts (+238.4%)

And as Steelriver was a course and distance winner here last time out, I though we'd take a quick look at the trainer's record when taking horses who won last time out back to a track where they've previously won over C&D ie...


from which those runners (all on the All-Weather btw) are...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 33.43pts (+417.9%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 34.43pts (+491.9%) in 9-13 runner contests here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.34pts (+243.4%) over the same C&D as that LTO win
  • 3/6 (50%) for 20.56pts (+342.7%) last year alone (just 1 run so far in 2020, unsurprisingly)
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.56pts (+279.3%) over a 6/7 furlong C&D LTO
  • 3/5 (60%) for 23.7pts (+474%) over a Wolverhampton C&D LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 16.91pts (+422.6%) over a Wolves C&D at 6/7f LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 19.86pts (+993%) in June/July

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 8.15am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!