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Stat of the Day, 12th August 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Lingfield : Bartat @ 3/1 BOG  6th at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, no extra closing stages)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f  on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a very much in-form 6 yr old gelding seeking a fifth win on the bounce, after six excellent runs here at Wolverhampton where he has finished 221111, the latest of which was a win at this Class 4 grade 20 days ago.

His handicap record at this venue now stands at 6 wins and 5 places from 13 efforts, all in 10-13 runner contests on the Tapeta and these include of note today...

  • 6 wins, 1 place from 7 after 11-25 days rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 9 at odds of 5/2 t0 13/2
  • 5 wins from 7 as a non-favourite
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 8 this year
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 at the same class as his last run
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing no headgear
  • 4 wins from 4 as an LTO winner
  • 4 wins from 4 in the second half of the year
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Danny Redmond
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 4...

...whilst his trainer, Michael Herrington has also had more general success at this venue himself, notching up 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) here over the past 18 months, including...

  • 12/37 (32.4%) for 64.6pts (+174.7%) in handicaps
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 49.1pts (+153.5%) at odds of 11/4 to 10/1
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 39.8pts (+173.2%) at 11-25 days since last run
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 62.4pts (+366.7%) from 5/6 yr olds
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 40.1pts (+445.4%) from LTO winners
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 11.8pts (+147.7%) over today's course and distance
  • 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle
  • and 1 from 5 (20%) for 8.83pts (+176.6%) at Class 4

...and finally, a quick look at Michael Herrington's record with LTO winners shows that since the start of 2014, they are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 31.1pts (+59.9% ROI) in handicaps when sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 10/1, including...

  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 39.8pts (+113.7%) on the A/W
  • 9/29 (31%) for 36.4pts (+125.7%) after 11-25 days rest
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 13.6pts (+52.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 31.3pts (+142.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 32.8pts (+172.5%) on Tapeta
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.1pts (+277.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 2/2 (100%) for 13.82pts (+691%) over 1m½f
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle

...all of which suggests chancing .. a 1pt win bet on Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Sunday, although the non-BOG until morning pair of Betfair & PP were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Lingfield : Bartat @ 3/1 BOG  6th at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, no extra closing stages)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f  on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a very much in-form 6 yr old gelding seeking a fifth win on the bounce, after six excellent runs here at Wolverhampton where he has finished 221111, the latest of which was a win at this Class 4 grade 20 days ago.

His handicap record at this venue now stands at 6 wins and 5 places from 13 efforts, all in 10-13 runner contests on the Tapeta and these include of note today...

  • 6 wins, 1 place from 7 after 11-25 days rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 9 at odds of 5/2 t0 13/2
  • 5 wins from 7 as a non-favourite
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 8 this year
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 at the same class as his last run
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing no headgear
  • 4 wins from 4 as an LTO winner
  • 4 wins from 4 in the second half of the year
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Danny Redmond
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 4...

...whilst his trainer, Michael Herrington has also had more general success at this venue himself, notching up 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) here over the past 18 months, including...

  • 12/37 (32.4%) for 64.6pts (+174.7%) in handicaps
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 49.1pts (+153.5%) at odds of 11/4 to 10/1
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 39.8pts (+173.2%) at 11-25 days since last run
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 62.4pts (+366.7%) from 5/6 yr olds
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 40.1pts (+445.4%) from LTO winners
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 11.8pts (+147.7%) over today's course and distance
  • 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle
  • and 1 from 5 (20%) for 8.83pts (+176.6%) at Class 4

...and finally, a quick look at Michael Herrington's record with LTO winners shows that since the start of 2014, they are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 31.1pts (+59.9% ROI) in handicaps when sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 10/1, including...

  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 39.8pts (+113.7%) on the A/W
  • 9/29 (31%) for 36.4pts (+125.7%) after 11-25 days rest
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 13.6pts (+52.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 31.3pts (+142.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 32.8pts (+172.5%) on Tapeta
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.1pts (+277.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 2/2 (100%) for 13.82pts (+691%) over 1m½f
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle

...all of which suggests chancing .. a 1pt win bet on Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Sunday, although the non-BOG until morning pair of Betfair & PP were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2019

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Friday's Pick was...

2.50 Warwick : Doitforthevillage @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, hit 2nd, steady headway on outside chasing leaders before 2 out, hung left between last 2, switched right and kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd towards finish, 2.25L off the pace)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 6f on Tapeta, worth £2426 to the winner...

Why?

Well, you'd be forgiven for thinking I'd lost the plot in backing a 9 yr old gelding who hasn't won for a while (56 races over almost 52 months if we're being specific!), but in my/his defence he has looked more like winning since returning to Michael Herrington's yard, where he was relatively successful during a 13-month stay in 2014/15.

He has made the frame in each of the three races since the switch of yard and his three defeats have come at a combined deficit of less than 1.5 lengths and only went down by a neck LTO, 8 days ago in another Class 6, 6f, A/W (Tapeta) handicap, when partnered by today's jockey for the first time.

His long losing run has taken his career record from a reasonable 3/20 to an admittedly pretty poor 3/76, but it's interesting (to me, at least!), that of his three career victories...

  • all were on the A/W
  • 2 were in handicaps
  • 2 for Michael Herrington
  • 1 at 6f
  • 1 here at Wolverhampton

Trainer Michael has himself had some joy here at Dunstall Park in recent years, especially at the sharper end of the market, with 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 61.4% with runners sent off at 6/1 or shorter in handicaps here since the start of 2015. Of relevance today of those 31 runners...

  • over trips of 5/6f : 6/19 (31.6%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 18.26pts (+107.4%)
  • Feb-April : 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.14pts (+115.3%)
  • in 2018 (no quals yet this year) : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.87pts (+63.3%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • 7-14 days since last run : 6/12 (50%) for 17.56pts (+146.3%)
  • and over this 6f C&D : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.37pts (+67%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Hills respectively at 5.45pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2018

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Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Lingfield : Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/2 (Led, not fluent 3 out, soon headed, rallied after last, stayed on under pressure to lead again last strides to win by 0.75 lengths) - keep an eye on this old girl : she's even better over further in the mud!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes  for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner last time out, 11 days ago and now has 4 wins and 5 places from 13 runs on this track, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) over course and distance
  • 4/8 (50%) competing for less than £8,000
  • 3/6 (50%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) in November/December

His trainer, Michael Herrington's LTO winners are 9/43 (20.9% SR) for 9.21pts (+21.4% ROI) profit since 2013 when sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 7/1 and these include...

  • on the A/W : 7/31 (22.6%) for 12.88pts (+41.6%)
  • Class 5/6 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 14.72pts (+52.6%)
  • 2016-18 : 6/28 (21.4%) for 8.21pts (+29.3%)
  • 5/6 furlongs : 5/27 (18.5%) for 5.81pts (+21.5%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 6/19 (31.6%) for 14.57pts (+76.7%)
  • and in December : 3/4 (75%) for 2.24pts (+306%)

...whilst since 2011, Michael's runners in claimers sent off at 6/4 to 5/1 are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 6.09pts (+33.8% ROI), from which...

  • on the A/W = 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.56pts (+30.4%)
  • 11-30 days since last run = 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.09pts (+72.1%)
  • carrying 8-13 to 9-07 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • rated (OR) 66-79 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • previous C&D runners = 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.57pts (+77.9%)
  • and over 6f = 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%)

And although, they're fairly relatively small sample sizes, I do think there's a distinct MO at play, especially as those rated 66-79 carrying 8-13 to 9-07, 11-30 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 17.09pts (+244.1% ROI), which can be further analysed as follows...

  • A/W : 4 from 6
  • prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • A/W & prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • over 6f : 3/5
  • over 6f on A/W : 3/5
  • prev C&D runners over 6f : 3/4
  • prev C&D runners over 6f on A/W : 3 from 4, all since October 2015...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2018

/in /by

Monday's Result :

2.40 Hereford : All Is Good @ 7/2 BOG (=2.8/1 after a 20p R4) WON at 15/8 Led, headed after 1st, led before 3rd, clear after 2 out until last, stayed on to win by 1.5 lengths...

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

Once again (like Monday), it's a day of few opportunities from either a statistical or a quality perspective, but I think I've found us another to explain value proposition (as after R4, we still made almost 150% of SP yesterday), so I'm just going to give you a snippet from horse, trainer and jockey in support of my selection.

The horse...

...has run here four times to date (his last four runs in fact), all over today's course and distance, winning twice and two runner-up finishes, including last time out when beaten by just a neck at a higher grade than today, so not only is he well suited by track and trip, he's back at a more realistic level of race.

The trainer...

...Michael Herrington (more famous at home, perhaps?) has 4 winners from 16 on the A/W track here at Southwell over the last 14 months and this 25% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 35.5pts at a terrific ROI of 22.1%, albeit from a small dataset.

and the Jockey...

...who is probably more familiar to you, is Andrew Mullen. Andrew seems to like/do well in this type of race, as since 2010, his record in 6f races on the fibresand piloting horses priced at 7/4 to 10/1 currently shows 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+47.6% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.8pts (+50.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/16 (25%) for 20.4pts (+127.4%)
  • for Michael Herrington : 1/2 (50%) for 3.65pts (+182.5%) both on Kommander Kirkup.

...and that gives us...a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG which was available from SkyBet & Bet365 at 5.30pm on Monday. Betfred & Totesport were matching those odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!