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Stat of the Day, 13th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.50 Newcastle : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Quickly away and keen, always close up, led over 3f out, clear lead over 2f out, driven and stayed on well) A welcome winner, that the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map had spot on!

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting with the racecard...

A horse in decent form, placed LTO a week ago and is trained at an in-form yard as highlighted by the 30 icon and the subsequent Trainer Stats report.

What the above doesn't tell you, is what I'll focus on now...

And of that 11/58 record, the following is of relevance today...

  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 59.87pts (+139.2%) during June-September
  • 9/46 (19.6%) for 52.97pts (+115.1%) from male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 33.68pts (+93.6%) on the Flat
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 22.12pts (+73.6%) at Class 6
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.41pts (+58.3%) at 6/1 and shorter
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 28.96pts (+137.9%) over 6f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 58pts (+290%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.51pts (+111.6%) with Phil Dennis in the saddle...

...whilst Class 6 males are 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 27.21pts (+209.34% ROI) on the Flat during June to September, including two wins from four for today's pick, Dodgy Bob...

...guiding us towards...a 1pt win bet on Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2020

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, effort and hung left from 2f out, ridden and went 2nd towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

As usual, we start with the details we already know which are easily viewed on the racecard...

Saddlecloth 7, Drawn 6 of 10, Won LTO, wears blinkers regularly (bl5+), has won at the course (C), has won at the distance (D) last raced 8 days ago, he's 6 yrs old and will be ridden by a jockey with a good record at this track (C1, C5), has an official rating (OR) of 57, which purely coincidentally is also his Geegeez Speed Rating. The SR of 57 is the second highest in this contest, so straight away there's a feeling we've found one with at least a chance.

So, let's look at some of the above in a little more detail...

He's drawn 6 of 10, which looks a good place to be in similar contests to today, as shown on the racecard draw tab (set to 9-11 actual runners)

He was a winner here last time out over 6f when ridden by Richard Kingscote for the first time, but has a couple of wins over today's trip. He's also...

  • 7 from 55 in handicaps
  • 7 from 54 for trainer Michael Mullineaux
  • 5 from 35 at Class 6 that is very profitable to follow (+43.84pts @ 125.3% ROI)
  • 5 from 16 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 7 from 23 after 3-10 days rest
  • 2 from 8 on Good to Soft ground

Aside from the above, it has also paid to follow the yard's runners quickly turned back out after a good run. More specifically...

and these 52 runners include of relevance today...

  • 9/44 (20.4%) for 54.97pts (+124.9%) for male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 59.47pts (+165.2%) during June to September
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 33.28pts (+114.8%) on the Flat
  • 5/20 (25%) for 23.71pts (+118.6%) at Class 6
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 16.01pts (+123.1%) at an SP odds range of 5/2 to 6/1
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 27.75pts (+252.3%) with runners stepping up in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 23.42pts (+390.3%) here at Chepstow...

...whilst Class 6 males on the Flat during June to September are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 31.21pts (+346.8% ROI), including 3 from 5 at 5/2 to 6/1, 2 from 4 here at Chepstow and 1 from 2 stepping up in trip...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Unibet at 8.10am Tuesday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!