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Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Newcastle : Porrima @ 17/2 BOG 6th at 15/2 (Fly leapt at start again, held up in last pair, good headway near side of group over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Executive Force 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has been on an amazing run of form this year, winning five of six and finishing as a runner-up in the race he lost! Last seen 7 days ago at Wolverhampton, when winning yet again.

He is now 5 from 14 on the All-Weather and this includes of relevance today...

  • 5/10 in cheekpieces
  • 3/9 going left handed
  • 5/8 in Feb/March
  • 3/8 over 1m/1m0.5f
  • 4/7 under jockey Franny Norton
  • 5/6 this year
  • and 2/2 within a week of his last run

Afore-mentioned jockey Franny Norton has 7 winners from 27 in the last 30 days, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) in the past fortnight, whilst since 2015 in A/W handicaps over 5f to 1m2f here at Lingfield, he has 14 winners from 66 (21.2% SR) for 95.9pts (+145.3% ROI).

Trainer Michael Wigham has also been amongst the winners of late with a 9 from 30 (30% SR) record over the last 60 days, including 3 from 6 in the past fortnight, whilst since 2013 when using the services of Franny Norton, his horses are 17 from 84 (20.2% SR) for 21pts (+25% ROI), including...

  • 16/76 (21.1%) for 24.9pts (+32.7%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 21.8pts (+80.7%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 20.7pts (+98.7%) from 5 yr olds
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.14pts (+53.8%) with horses running within 10 days of their last outing
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 1.5pts (+9.3%) in March
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.41pts (+31%) from LTO winners...

...whilst more generally over the last two years...

  • Martin's runners turned out with 10 days of their last run are 16/42 (38.1% SR) for 35.44pts (84.4% ROI)
  • his LTO winners are 13/38 (34.2%) for 16.8pts (+44.3%)
  • whilst his LTO winners turned back out within 10 days are 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.2pts (+144.4%), of which Franny Norton has 4 winners from 4 for 5.25pts profit...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Executive Force 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.10 Bath : Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd and no extra towards finish)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, bear with me here, as some of you might have noticed that this 7 yr old gelding is currently on 13-month/16-race losing run, so that's got to end soon, surely?

All joking apart, now that he's tumbled in the weights, he has shown some signs of a return to previous form, beaten by just two lengths in a higher grade than this two starts ago at Newbury, before finishing fourth at Wolverhampton nine days ago.

In that Wolverhampton contest, he fared best of the hold-up horses and was possibly a little unlucky to be hampered at a crucial time, just as he was winding up for a run, so to come here off a career low mark, some 12lbs below that last win, could just be the right time to get back to winning ways.

He has won 6 of 15 races when sent off at 4/1 or shorter, so the market will be a good indicator of his chances, he's also 3 from 9 in this grade and John Egan has already ridden him to victory.

And since 2009 in Class 4 to 6 Flat & A/W handicaps, Michael Wigham's horses on losing streaks of more than 5 but less than 25 races and now racing off a lower mark than the one they last won off are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 39.7pts (+59.2% ROI), including...

  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 20.6pts (+73.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20.7pts (+94.2%)
  • and those now rated 8 to 15lbs lower than their last winning mark are 5/21 (23.8%) for 14.9pts (+71%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, SkyBet & UniBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Brighton : Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Dwelt towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to lead towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Wednesday's...

6.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Target @ 6/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  1m A/W Handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7246 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner up last time out when only beaten by a length in a similar contest over course and distance 32 days ago. Since then the 4th placed horse (1.25 lengths back) Poet's Society has turned back out here and won.

Hope fully our boy can do the same as he's admittedly on a run that reads 0 win from 11 over the last 13 months, but with 3 top three finishes in his last five starts, a victory today would be a massive surprise, nor would it be out of turn, especially as he is 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 7 from 21 (33.3%) going left handed
  • 6 from 20 (30%) on Polytrack
  • 5 from 17 (29.4%) over a mile
  • 6 from 14 (42.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) over course and distance

His trainer Michael Wigham's own stats here at Lingfield are obviously aided by the above data, but he doesn't entirely rely on the one horse here, as since 2009, his Lingfield A/W handicappers are 18/113 (15.9% SR) for 58.6pts (+51.8% ROI), which include..

  • over 1m to 1m2f : 13/61 (21.3%) for 74.95pts (+122.9%)
  • at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/32 (21.9%) for 87.96pts (+274.9%)
  • and over 1m to 1m2f at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/20 (35%) for 99.96pts (+499.8%)

Now the above profit and respective ROI figures are a little skewed by a 33/1 winner that paid 80.3pts at betfair SP, but even if you took 47pts off the bottom line, the numbers still stack up well.

And finally, going back the run of 11 losses in a row for this horse, this can be offputting for many, but it's worth noting that since 2014, Michael Wigham's handicappers running off a mark lower than their last winning level which was more than 5 nut less than 15 races ago are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 10.96pts at an ROI of 25.5%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Target @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betfair, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2018

Saturday's Result :

12.20 Lingfield : Chester Street @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 Close up, pushed along and no impression 2f out, headway under pressure inside final furlong, nearest at finish....

Next up is Monday's...

1.25 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on Soft ground worth £4,159 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who won LTO over track and trip at a higher grade under today's jockeys 34 days ago. That was the third time Jack Quinlan had ridden this horse to victory over hurdles, whilst the horse's other achievements over the smaller obstacles include...

  • 3/10 here at Fakenham
  • 4/9 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 on Soft
  • 1/1 in blinkers

Trainer Michael Wigham's LTO winners are 18/55 (32.7% SR) for 40.74pts (+74.1% ROI) over the last 4 years, from which...

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 17/43 (39.5%) for 30.1pts (+69.9%)
  • won over C&D LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 13.7pts (+85.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/10 (40%) for 0.48pts (+4.8%)

Whilst more generally over the last 5 yrs in UK handicap hurdles, former course and distance winners who either won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 223/997 (22.4% SR) for 203.5pts (+20.4% ROI), including...

  • LTO winners : 178/830 (178/830 (21.5%) for 99.2pts (+12%)
  • 11-60 days since last run : 160/742 (21.6%) for 172.4pts (+23.2%)
  • Same C&D as LTO : 144/634 (22.7%) for 131.9pts (+20.8%)
  • Won over C&D LTO : 132/593 (22.3%) for 100pts (+16.9%)
  • Won over C&D LTO, 11-60 dslr : 100/460 (21.7%) for 101.2pts (+22%)
  • On Soft ground : 56/226 (24.8%) for 22.6pts (+10%)
  • at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m2f : 50/232 (21.6%) for 36.4pts (+15.7%)
  • Won over C&D LTO, 11-60 dslr at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m2f : 23/104 (22.1%) for 22pts (+21.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfred, BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Totesport at 5.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2018

Saturday's Result :

12.20 Lingfield : Chester Street @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 Close up, pushed along and no impression 2f out, headway under pressure inside final furlong, nearest at finish....

Next up is Monday's...

1.25 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on Soft ground worth £4,159 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who won LTO over track and trip at a higher grade under today's jockeys 34 days ago. That was the third time Jack Quinlan had ridden this horse to victory over hurdles, whilst the horse's other achievements over the smaller obstacles include...

  • 3/10 here at Fakenham
  • 4/9 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 on Soft
  • 1/1 in blinkers

Trainer Michael Wigham's LTO winners are 18/55 (32.7% SR) for 40.74pts (+74.1% ROI) over the last 4 years, from which...

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 17/43 (39.5%) for 30.1pts (+69.9%)
  • won over C&D LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 13.7pts (+85.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/10 (40%) for 0.48pts (+4.8%)

Whilst more generally over the last 5 yrs in UK handicap hurdles, former course and distance winners who either won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 223/997 (22.4% SR) for 203.5pts (+20.4% ROI), including...

  • LTO winners : 178/830 (178/830 (21.5%) for 99.2pts (+12%)
  • 11-60 days since last run : 160/742 (21.6%) for 172.4pts (+23.2%)
  • Same C&D as LTO : 144/634 (22.7%) for 131.9pts (+20.8%)
  • Won over C&D LTO : 132/593 (22.3%) for 100pts (+16.9%)
  • Won over C&D LTO, 11-60 dslr : 100/460 (21.7%) for 101.2pts (+22%)
  • On Soft ground : 56/226 (24.8%) for 22.6pts (+10%)
  • at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m2f : 50/232 (21.6%) for 36.4pts (+15.7%)
  • Won over C&D LTO, 11-60 dslr at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m2f : 23/104 (22.1%) for 22pts (+21.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfred, BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Totesport at 5.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!