Tag Archive for: Middleham Park Racing

Lazy Griff team waiting on St Leger jockey plans

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Owners Middleham Park Racing will have to play the waiting game before firming up jockey plans for Betfred St Leger chance Lazy Griff, with hopes William Buick might be available to ride at Doncaster.

Christophe Soumillon rode Charlie Johnston’s star three-year-old to win a French Group Three last year and was also aboard when he finished second in the Derby at Epsom, but with Ryan Moore sidelined by a leg injury, the Belgian jockey has been called up by Aidan O’Brien for the Irish Champions Festival on the same weekend.

Two-time champion jockey Buick partnered Lazy Griff when he finished third in the Irish Derby last time out, but on what will be a hectic weekend on the racing calendar in Ireland, Canada and the UK, Middleham Park’s Mike Prince admitted jockey plans will not be firmly in place until at least six days before the final Classic of the season.

“Obviously Christophe was going to ride, but he’s now going over to Ireland to ride for Aidan,” Prince said.

“We are just waiting really because it’s Irish Champions Weekend, there’s racing in Canada as well with Woodbine, so we are just waiting on some clarity on which jockeys are where.

“William, who rode him in the Irish Derby, obviously will have to see where Charlie Appleby is going and what he wants him to ride, so we aren’t going to know until Monday or Tuesday of next week.

“So we have to sit on our hands a little bit and see who is where, really. It’s a shame because there is top-quality racing all around the world on the same weekend. It’s a bit tricky. Come Monday or Tuesday, we will have a plan in place.”

Lazy Griff has placed in all of his three starts this season, with O’Brien’s Lambourn winning each Group contest.

The first of those came in the Chester Vase in May, a performance which led to Johnston setting out a plan for Doncaster and a possible fourth contest of the campaign between the classy three-year-olds.

“He’s had a nice rest since the Irish Derby and Charlie has been building him up nicely, he’s due to do his last piece of work on Saturday and then it’s all systems go for Doncaster,” Prince added.

“We thought we had a nice horse going into the season and then he obviously showed up well at Chester, but he’s run in the Derby and the Irish Derby – they were just both excellent performances.

“He had an excellent season so far and it is by no means over as yet.

“He’s by Protectionist – a Melbourne Cup winner – and the way he finished off in the Irish Derby, he was in his best work in those last couple of furlongs.

“This is the race that Charlie has had in mind for him since Chester really, so I think a step up in trip will suit him nicely and this spell of wet weather as well. Charlie’s gone on record saying that he doesn’t really want to run him on fast ground, but I don’t think he will encounter that at Doncaster now.

“The more rain the merrier, not that he wants it heavy, but the soft side of good and he’s got a good turn of foot and a bit of juice in the ground will suit him to a tee.”

Middleham Park happy to be heading straight to Doncaster with Lazy Griff

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Lazy Griff is firmly on course for a third tilt at Classic glory in the Betfred St Leger, as he prepares to head straight to Doncaster.

Charlie Johnston’s charge has performed admirably in defeat on each of his three starts so far this season, finishing second in both the Chester Vase and the Derby before taking third in the Irish Derby, on each occasion chasing home Aidan O’Brien’s Lambourn.

Owners Middleham Park Racing considered a trip overseas in a bid for a Group One breakthrough with Lazy Griff, but have instead elected to keep their powder dry for the world’s oldest Classic on September 13.

“We thought about going to Germany for the race Rebel’s Romance won (on Sunday), but it was quite a warm race and we didn’t really want to leave any Leger chances over there,” said Middleham Park’s Mike Prince.

Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff after his runner-up finish at Epsom
Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff after his runner-up finish at Epsom (PA)

“There’s the Great Voltigeur next week, but we felt there wasn’t going to be enough time between that and Doncaster. I think the ground will be plenty quick at York for him anyway and waiting for September just gives us the chance for hopefully a little bit softer ground if the weather breaks in the next couple of weeks.

“Charlie has had the Leger in mind for him all year and we’ll go straight there now, that is absolutely the plan.”

Paddy Power make Lazy Griff the 7-1 third-favourite for the St Leger, with the O’Brien-trained pair of Scandinavia and his old rival Lambourn the two ahead of him in the betting at 5-4 and 7-2 respectively.

Prince added: “I’d say Scandinavia might be the favourite (to run) out of the two, just because of the trips he’s been running over. I wonder whether they’ll go for the Arc with Lambourn, you never know.

“Whatever Aidan sends will probably go off favourite, whether it’s Scandinavia or Lambourn, and if he sends both then I suspect they’ll both be ahead of us in the market.

Scandinavia will be one of the big dangers to Lazy Griff at Doncaster
Scandinavia will be one of the big dangers to Lazy Griff at Doncaster (Matt Alexander/PA)

“He’s got plenty of ammo, but we’re all geared up and ready to go.”

The Middleham Park team have also started to make plans beyond Doncaster, with Prince saying: “We’ve given him an entry in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot and I suppose the options after the St Leger are that and the Prix Royal-Oak at Saint-Cloud at the end of October.

“It’ll probably be the Leger and then one of those.”

Half Million bid on the horizon for Anthelia

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Anthelia has already scooped a huge prize for connections this season and Rod Millman’s Super Sprint scorer is set to go in quest of further riches at York next week.

The four-time winner – who was bought for just £6,000 by her handler at the sales as a yearling – denied Eve Johnson Houghton’s Havana Hurricane by a short head at Newbury and will now try to replicate those heroics on the Knavesmire in the valuable Harry’s Half Million By Goffs sales race.

“She’s come out of the race perfectly well,” said Tim Palin of owners Middleham Park Racing. “It’s a good form line as well, Havana Hurricane has come out and franked the form in the Richmond and I know he didn’t win it, but he was arguably a little bit unlucky.

“She’s won four of her first five races, and Rod slightly blames himself for the Empress Stakes for getting the tactics slightly wrong, but other than that blip, she’s been flawless.

“Obviously there are decisions to make of where do we go, but in theory, we’ll probably go to Harry’s Half Million at the Ebor meeting in York.”

Anthelia’s sole defeat came when upped to six furlongs in the Empress Stakes at Newmarket, but connections have no fears about tackling the distance for a second time in a race that has a total prize-fund of over £500,000 and the Middleham team won with Shouldvebeenaring in 2022.

“Seeing is believing, but her pedigree and her style of racing suggests she will get six (furlongs) and it was just the tactics that got her beat last time,” continued Palin.

“She was very strong through the line at Salisbury, she was strong through the line in the National Stakes and she was strong through the line at five furlongs at Newbury.

“In a race like the Harry’s Half Million, they are going to go a mad pace and you are going to have to have five-furlong pace and stay six furlongs to win the race.

“She ought to get six furlongs and she only just got up on the line in the Super Sprint, so with another half-furlong she might have won another half-length.

“It is such a lucrative pot with almost £250,000 to the winner and you’re probably going to win more for finishing third in the Harry’s Half Million than you would next year for winning a Group Three. It’s definitely worth going down that route.”

Connections are inclined to dream big with the bargain buy who has turned to gold and a strong showing in Yorkshire could see the daughter of Supremacy step into Group company later in the campaign.

The Anthelia team have their eye on a visit to Salisbury next month, which could prove a suitable stepping stone to a Cheveley Park Stakes tilt against some of the best sprinting juvenile fillies of the season.

“She’s going to have an entry in the Cheveley Park because it could be a small field,” added Palin.

“She might go to the Dick Poole as well, and it could be Harry’s Half Million, Dick Poole, then potentially Newmarket if she wins one or both of those.

“If we come up a little bit short and we aren’t quite a Group filly, then we’ve always got the Listed race which we’ve already won and then the Redcar Trophy in October.

“So if we come unstuck in the Harry’s Half Million or the Dick Poole, we probably wouldn’t go down the Cheveley Park route but go down the Redcar route.”

Lazy Griff not guaranteed to run again before Leger bid

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If Lazy Griff runs again before the Betfred St Leger it is likely to be in the Grosser Preis von Berlin.

Charlie Johnston’s charge has finished behind dual Derby winner Lambourn at Chester, Epsom and the Curragh this season and may yet have to come up against him at Doncaster.

His third in the Irish Derby was the opposite of his runner-up finish at Epsom, where he was handy throughout, as this time he was outpaced before flying home to finish third.

“It was quicker ground. William (Buick) jumped to go forward and he just couldn’t go the early pace on that ground,” said Mike Prince of owners Middleham Park Racing.

“He travelled sweetly at Epsom, but he just couldn’t lie up with them and it wasn’t until he hit the rising ground that he absolutely flew home. So the Derby form was upheld, but it happened in a very different way.

“It was a strange race to watch as coming round the bend Lambourn looked in trouble, but I think he fools you as that’s his racing style, he’s just tough and reality has shown he is a very good horse.

“What we do next is an interesting one as obviously the St Leger is his main target for the rest of the season. We’re coming into the height of summer and Charlie reiterated he wouldn’t want to run him on fast ground again.

“He’s in the Grosser Preis von Berlin on August 10 which is normally run on good ground so if we did have a run that would be the most likely as the Great Voltigeur is a bit close to Doncaster. But we’re not adamant that he needs to run again as he’s done Chester, Epsom and the Curragh which is tight enough with three tough races.

“The Leger is definitely his number one target and if he runs before then we’ll see. William said afterwards that his Derby run was no fluke and he’s a proper Group One horse.”

Middleham Park looking to the Curragh skies for Lazy Griff

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Lazy Griff’s participation in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby will be a late call and depend on how much rain falls at the Curragh this week.

Charlie Johnston’s charge outran his odds of 50-1 under Christophe Soumillon in the Derby at Epsom, getting closet to impressive winner Lambourn, just has he had done in the Chester Vase.

However, connections are keen not to ask him to race on ground which they deem to be too quick.

“It was good, good to firm this morning and we’re in the same situation as applied at Epsom, we don’t want to run him on fast ground,” said Mike Prince of owners Middleham Park Racing.

Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff
Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff (PA)

“We’ll keep him in at the forfeit stage (on Tuesday) and then play it by ear. I’ve seen some forecasts suggest plenty of rain  midweek, but others saying only two to three millimetres.

“All we can do is keep him in and keep monitoring, it keeps changing every time I look.

“It will probably be the Grand Prix de Paris if he doesn’t run. It’s the German Derby next week or the Grand Prix the week after, those are the options and France is more likely than Germany currently.

“He doesn’t have to leave until Friday so we don’t have to decide until declarations.”

He added: “He’s been fine since Epsom, Charlie’s really happy with him and we’re going to check in with Christophe, just to see what is what.”

Lazy Griff connections keep options open after Derby exploits

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Options in France, Germany and Ireland are under consideration for Lazy Griff following his fantastic effort to fill the runner-up spot in the Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday.

Second to Lambourn in the Chester Vase on his three-year-old debut, Charlie Johnston’s colt was a widely unconsidered 50-1 shot for the premier Classic but outran his odds to again finish best of the rest behind Aidan O’Brien’s all-the-way winner, much to the delight of the Middleham Park Racing team.

Middleham Park’s director of operations, Mike Prince, said: “It was a brilliant day and it was surreal watching him as he was coming round the bend and into the straight travelling so sweetly.

“There was just a split second where you thought ‘he might just do it’! I think Christophe (Soumillon) thought that he would get past him (Lambourn), but the winner is obviously a good horse and he was super tough in that final furlong.”

Prince insists Lazy Griff’s performance was not a huge surprise to his connections, particularly after the rain that fell on the Surrey Downs in the lead-up to the race.

“He’d worked well in the spring and he just missed a week before Chester, so we knew we were going into Chester undercooked and we knew he’d come on for it. So having seen him run such a big race there, that kind of cemented us going for the Derby,” Prince continued.

“The only issue was Charlie didn’t want to run him on super fast ground, that was the only reason he wouldn’t have gone to Epsom, but obviously the rain came which was helpful.

“We were thinking we could finish in the top six going in there – we weren’t going there just for a day out that’s for sure and Christophe obviously won a Group Three in France on him last year and I know he couldn’t understand why he was such a big price either.”

A trio of Group One assignments are on the table for the Protectionist colt’s next start, while another tilt at Classic glory in the St Leger at Doncaster appears an obvious target.

Prince said: “There’s the German Derby, the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris. No decision has been made as yet and obviously the ground will play a part – if it’s fast anywhere we won’t go.

“I think it will be one of those three and I’d say the percentage call at this point would be the Grand Prix de Paris, but it’s certainly not set in stone and if it came up heavy in Ireland with proper soft ground that might change things.

“The St Leger would make sense later in the year as although he was quite fleet of foot there coming down the hill at Epsom, there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree, being by a Melbourne Cup winner, and I know after Chester Charlie said ‘this is a Leger horse’.”

Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff
Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff (PA)

Wherever Lazy Griff turns up next it should be an exciting second half of the season for his 24 individual owners, which include George Griffiths, after whom the horse is named.

Prince said: “We have a policy where the first person to buy a 15 per cent share gets to name the horse and George also got his name on the racecard. He and his wife Amy were obviously on cloud nine on Saturday.”

A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 2

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This is the second of a two part series looking at some owner data for UK flat horse racing, writes Dave Renham. The period of study covers 1st January 2019 to 8th September 2024. Profit and loss figures have been calculated to Industry Starting Price (ISP), but I will quote Betfair SP (BSP) when appropriate.

In the first piece I shared data for the major owners who had the top 25 strike rates during this time frame and drilled into three - the Godolphin operation, Shadwell Estate and Cheveley Park Stud. To begin with in this piece, I will review the man with the second-best strike rate overall.

Mark Chan

Backing Marc Chan-owned horses in Britain during the study period has returned a tidy profit to SP of £34.12 (ROI +20.1%) with a strike rate close to one win in every four. Chan, a Hong Kong businessman, has a small but select group of horses that race in the UK. Initially, he owned and raced horses solely in Hong Kong, however in more recent years he has spread his wings. Saturday August 26th 2023 is a date that will be etched in his memory forever, as he landed an impressive treble that day with Angel Bleu winning the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood, Kinross the City of York Group 2 contest at York just 20 minutes later and then, 55 minutes after that, Lezoo prevailed in the Listed Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket. Three Class 1 wins at three different courses in just 1 hour and 15 minutes.

Most of Chan's horses are trained by Ralph Beckett and their record together reads: 38 wins from 144 starts (SR 26.4%) for a profit of £27.37 (ROI +19%). To BSP this improves to £44.34 (ROI +30.8%). Chan also has a couple of horses in training with John and Thady Gosden. Currently the Chan/Gosden combination has seen 4 wins from 11 starts.

Mark Chan Runners by Gender

One stat that stands out with Chan’s horses is the difference in success between his male runners and his females. Let’s look at the strike rates first:

 

 

Male horses have been 1.8 times more successful in terms of winning races than female horses. There have been more male runners, but still a fairly even split (94 male; 76 female). In terms of returns to SP there is a considerable difference:

 

 

That disparity equates to around 63p in the £ between the SP returns for male horses compared to female ones.

Other Mark Chan Runner Stats

There are three further subsets of stats I’d like to share:

1. Chan’s runners performed well when priced 6/1 or shorter. This group of runners secured 36 wins from 96 (SR 37.5%) for a profit of £35.62 (ROI +37.1%); A/E index 1.31.

2. Focusing on the Grade 1 tracks (Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, York), Chan secured a 21.5% strike rate (20 from 93) for an SP profit of £13.60 (ROI +14.6%); A/E index 1.29.

3. Chan-owned two-year-olds have performed extremely well with the benefit of at least one previous run. These juveniles have won 16 of their 43 starts hitting a huge strike rate of over 37%. Returns have been 34p in the £ to SP, 44p to BSP. Compare this to his 2yo debutants who have scored only three times from 21 (SR 14.3%).

As I’m writing this, Kinross has just won for a tenth time (eighth for Chan) winning the Park Stakes (Group 2) at Doncaster.

 

Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum

I want to concentrate on the past three years for this Dubai-based owner as his team has excelled during that timeframe. Sheikh Obaid's prizemoney earnings have exceeded £1.5 million in each of the three years, and each year has seen his strike rate north of 20% (21.4% in 2022, 20.9% in 2023 and an impressive 24.7% so far in 2024). Backing all runners ‘blind’ in the past three years would have seen a £85.28 profit to SP; to BSP it stands at a very healthy +£164.41 (ROI +26.6%). It should also be noted that his figures are not skewed by several big-priced winners.

At the front end of the market, Sheikh Obaid has proved profitable to follow, with his favourites and second favourites having combined to win 92 races from 256 (SR 35.9%) for an SP profit of £18.20 (ROI +7.1%). To BSP this improves to £36.03 (ROI +14.1%).

Sheikh Obaid Runners by Age

Moving onto age of horse now and here are the splits:

 

 

Two-year-olds have an excellent record as have those aged four. What is interesting about the 2yo results is what happens when we compare win strike rates based on number of career starts. Normally 2yo debutants score much less frequently than those that have run before. However...

 

 

...as can be seen here, Sheikh Obaid-owned juveniles on debut have won more often than any other subset and, at a ridiculously high 29.9% strike rate for 2yo debutants. The average strike rate for all 2yo debutants in the past three years stands at just 8.4%. Here are the full figures for these 2yos on debut:

 

 

To BSP these figures improve further to  profit of £99.37 (ROI +129.1%). Backing Sheikh Obaid-owned debutants has been a license to print money in the past three seasons.

Sheikh Obaid Runners by Trainer

It’s trainer time next and here are the stats for all runners from any stable that has saddled more than 40 runners for Sheikh Obaid:

 

 

Karl Burke looks the stand-out performer and, if ignoring his bigger-priced runners (14/1 or more), the overall profit improves by £26 to £87.08. His 2yos have been exceptional winning over 36% of the time (16/44) and returning 42p in the £ to SP, 60p to BSP.

Kevin Ryan has a good record in novice events for the Sheikh, scoring ten wins from 36 (SR 27.8%) for a tidy profit of £19.40 (ROI +53.9%). To BSP the profit stands at £30.46 (ROI +84.6%). Sticking with Ryan, when his runners have been in the top three in the betting they have won over 30% of the time (17 wins from 56) returning 39p in the £ to SP, 56p to BSP.

Roger Varian also has a couple of positive stats to feedback to you. Firstly, when Jack Mitchell has ridden their record reads 12 wins from 40 (SR 30%) for a profit of £10.83 (ROI +27.1%). To BSP that improves by a further 9p in the £. In Class 5 events Varian has a 35.7% strike rate thanks to ten wins from 28. Returns to SP stand at 18p in the £, 31p in the £ to BSP.

Unfortunately for Varian, and to a lesser degree for us punters, Sheikh Obaid removed all of his horses from Varian's Carlburg Stables last month.

Sheikh Obaid Runners by Race Class

There has been excellent consistency over the last three years from the runners of Sheikh Obaid which is highlighted nicely by an analysis of race class. His runners have produced profit to SP in every single class of race as the graph below shows:

 

 

Obviously, to BSP these figures improve still further. Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum is by all accounts a demanding owner, but he does seem to be one to keep a close eye on at present.

 

Amo Racing Limited

Amo Racing Limited was founded by football agent Kia Joorabchian and they have had over 200 winners in the past six seasons. However, this year has not gone so well hitting a strike rate of below 10% compared with over 16% when combining the years 2019 to 2023. There have been plenty of ups and downs already with horses being taken away from trainers and jockey Kevin Stott being sacked after eight months of an initial one-year contract; Joorabchian certainly seems to do things his way.

To date he has one Group 1 success courtesy of King of Steel in the 2023 Qipco Champion Stakes. However, it was his 150-1 winner, Valiant Force, at Royal Ascot in the same year that perhaps he is best known for.

Amo Racing by Trainer

In terms of trainers both George Boughey and Alice Haynes boast a 20%+ win strike rate, although this year, as with all his trainers, this figure has dropped.

Perhaps the most potent stat is for favourites: jollies wearing the distinctive purple and white livery have won 103 of their 249 starts (SR 41.4%) for a profit to SP of £28.59 (ROI +11.5%). To BSP this stands at +£44.60 (ROI +17.9%). For the record Amo-owned favourites have edged into profit to BSP even during this poor year of 2024.

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Trainer Performance by Price Movement

In some other recent articles I have written about price movement, so I thought I would check for any owners who have fared particularly well with horses that have shortened in price from Early Morning Odds (around 9am in the morning) to final Starting Price. The idea was to try and establish which owners may be worth 'following in' if you see a horse of theirs being backed.

Positive Price Movement

There are six owners who have achieved an A/E index of over 1.00 with at least 75 horses that have shortened in price during this time frame. They are shown in the graph below:

 

 

Two owners that I have discussed earlier, Marc Chan and Sheikh Mohammed Obaid, both appear in this list of six. All six from the chart above - the others being David Armstrong, Valmont Racing, Qatar Racing and Paul & Clare Rooney - have been profitable to SP as well as BSP, impressive considering all the horses shortened in price during the day. Hence, a positive market move for any of these owners should be seen as material.

Negative Price Movement

It is interesting when looking at the A/E index of Paul & Clare Rooney with horses that do the reverse and drift from Early Odds to SP. When this has happened their A/E index was way down at 0.59. Such runners showed hefty losses to SP standing at over 55p in the £. But when their horses have been backed, they have produced a return to SP over nearly 7p in the £, with an A/E index of 1.01 (as can be seen in the graph). The strike rates between the two groups vary massively, too, going from 18.9% for horses that shorten to 6.7% for horses that drifted in price.

There is a similar pattern when comparing ‘shorteners’ and ‘drifters’ for Qatar Racing Limited. Here are their splits:

 

 

There is a noteworthy difference here again, much bigger than the norm. Are certain owners really in the know? It’s obviously difficult to tell, but if I was thinking about backing a horse owned by Qatar Racing, I’d prefer to see it strong in the market than weak.

 

Additional Owner stats

For the final part of this article I'm going to share some individual owner stats that I believe are worth knowing:

1. Opulence Thoroughbreds have an excellent record with their 2yos when racing on the all-weather, scoring over 37% of the time and producing returns to SP of 22p in the £.

2. Kirsten Rausing has a good record with her 2yo runners trained by Andrew Balding. Eight of the 24 runners in the study period have won securing an SP profit in every year from 2020 to 2024.

3. Middleham Park send out on average over 600 runners every year hitting a win strike rate of 12%. They spread their horses across numerous trainers and the stand-out handler for them has been Robert Cowell. Of his 67 runners 17 have won (SR 25.4%) for an SP profit of £48.23 (ROI +72%). No other trainer for Middleham has exceeded an 18% win rate with most of them between 10% and 14%.

4. The Cool Silk Partnership has an overall strike rate of 14% but with runners from the Archie Watson yard this jumps to 20.1% (19 wins from 93). Also keep an eye out for the jockey booking because when Hollie Doyle has taken the ride the stats read nine wins from 27 (SR 33.3%) for an SP profit of £16.26 (ROI +60.2%). To BSP it jumps up to +£22.78 (ROI +84.4%).

5. Sticking with Archie Watson and The Cool Silk Partnership, runners sent off first or second favourite have produced outstanding results: 15 wins from 31 (SR 48.4%) for a profit to SP of £24.15 (ROI +77.9%).

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And that concludes the second of two owner articles. I hope you enjoyed both pieces and have gained some useful insights to help inform your betting where certain owners are concerned.

- DR