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Stat of the Day, 26th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Bangor : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Midfield, headway to chase leaders 9th, ridden before 2 out, stayed on to press leader last, stayed on well close home, just denied by a short head) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the racecard is my way into the race...

...with an in-form 6 yr old mare hailing from an in-form yard that does well with LTO winners. Other than the sex of the horse, you've pretty much got that there in front of you and to be honest, I'd be happy to draw stumps on today's piece and say that's why I'm backing this one.

If I did want to seek further reassurance, my next step would be to see if the horse would be suited to today's conditions and an opening glance at her record shows a fairly uninspiring 4 from 34 (11.8% SR), but she does come here seeking a hat-trick in Scotland since adopting blinkers and a closer look at those 34 runs gives me more confidence as they include under today's conditions...

  • 4/11 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/13 at 6-14 dslr
  • 3/11 in fields of 9-10 runners
  • 2/14 on the Flat
  • 2/12 in handicaps
  • 2/12  at class 6
  • 2/11 on soft ground
  • 2/11 going right handed
  • 2/10 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/3 in August
  • and 2/2 in blinkers

Trainer Dianne Sayer's excellent 2yr record with LTO winners above does also include her NH runners of course, so with today's contest in mind, I'm just going to add in that they include 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 21.35pts (+194.1% ROI) profit in Flat handicaps at odds ranging from 6/4 to 15/2 and although 11 races is a small sample size, they do include many similarities to today's situation, such as...

  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 23.35pts (+259.5%) within four weeks of their last run
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.14pts (+219.1%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 4/5 (80%) for 14.75pts (+295%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • 4/5 (80%) for 14.14pts (+282.8%) at class 6
  • 3/4 (75%) for 12.34pts (+308.5%) in Scotland
  • 3/4 (75%) for 11.52pts (+288%) in blinkers
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.72pts (+324%) with 6 yr olds
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.92pts (+130.7%) in August
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.65pts (+582.3%) on soft ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!