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Stat of the Day, 19th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.00 Beverley : Saluti @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Disputed lead early, tracked leaders, led over 1f out, driven and joined inside final 100 yards, prevailed on the nod to win by a nose) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...and an 8 yr old gelding who was third LTO 31 days ago. What the above doesn't say is that he was staying on in the closing stages and now steps up in trip, which could help. He also drops down in class today and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

As shown above, trainer Kim Bailey has done well here at Stratford with a small number of runners, whist the yard's chasers are already 13 from 37 (35.1% SR) for 6.6pts (+17.8% ROI) profit this year, including 13/26 (50%) for 17.6pts (+67.7%) at 5/1 or shorter.

The adoption of cheekpieces interests me too, as one of my saved micro-systems says that handicap chasers sent off at Evens to 14/1 wearing headgear during May to September are 99 from 553 (17.9% SR) for 140.1pts (+25.4% ROI) since 2016 after not wearing any headgear on their previous outing and these include the following of some relevance today...

  •  92/512 (18%) for 124.8pts (+24.4%) for males
  • 72/385 (18.7%) for 116pts (+30.2%) in cheekpieces
  • 68/347 (19.6%) for 136.3pts (+39.4%) at 16-45 dslr
  • 50/256 (19.5%) for 93.7pts (+36.6%) at Class 4
  • 38/210 (18.1%) for 88.5pts (+42.3%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 25/128 (19.5%) for 29.2pts (+22.8%) made the frame LTO
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 48.7pts (+43.8%) for 8 yr olds
  • 21/99 (21.2%) for 30pts (+30.3%) finished third LTO
  • 19/97 (19.6%) for 16.5pts (+17%) dropping down a class
  • 17/89 (19.1%) for 37.7pts (+42.4%) during August
  • 15/67 (22.4%) for 45.5pts (+67.9%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.6pts (+40.6%) in 2020

...and whilst I don't want to dilute the sample size too much...Class 3/4 males in cheekpieces at 16-45 dslr are 35 from 154 (22.7% SR) for 76.6pts (+49.8% ROI), including 3/5 (60%) for 18.9pts (+378%) this year alone...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger) as was available at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!