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Stat of the Day, 15th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.05 Bath : Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3 (Close up, pushed along halfway, not much room and lost place 2f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard tells us that this 4 yr old was a runner-up LTO 24 days ago (beaten by just a neck over C&D by an in-form rival completing a hat-trick, despite our boy not having raced for 215 days) and that he was flagged up on my Query Tool report because his trainer (Roger Varian) is one of the ones I keep an eye out for on the A/W here at Kempton...

Based on his last two runs, which were both at this venue (4th over 1m3f at C2 and 2nd over C&D at C3 LTO), the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map also offers encouragement...

..as do the figures on the Geegeez Speed ratings...

Now, let's add a little bit of flesh to the bare bones above. Why follow Roger Varian at Kempton and do we back all of his runners here? Well, as you'd expect, the answer to the second part is no and being selective answers the first question!

The runners I'm interested are simply Roger Varian's Kempton handicappers sent off at 10/1 or shorter. He will get unfancied winners, but playing at long odds often means a long wait between drinks and I'm not a patient man. Imposing a simple odds cut-off has yielded the following result since the start of 2016...

from which...

  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 21.23pts (+31.2%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 18/54 (33.3%) for 35.96pts (+66.6%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 17/54 (31.5%) for 25.47pts (+47.2%) with male runners
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 29.41pts (+91.9%) during June to August
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 23.12pts (+256.9%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 5.48pts (+54.8%) from top weighted runners

...whilst males competing for less than £8k during June to September after a break of 11-45 days are 11 from 21 (52.4% SR) for 36.99pts (+176.1% ROI) and also applies to Roger's runner Motamayiz in the 7.45 race and of that 11/21 stat, top weights are 2 from 2 as are those who finished as runners-up last time out...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor* & Hills* at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!