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Stat of the Day, 28th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.35 Redcar : Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on, no chance with winner) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Wagyu @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As is often the case, we start with the racecard...

...which shows that today's jockey is riding well (30) at present (2 from 3 in the past week) and today rides for a yard with a decent record at this track of late (C1). In fact, the runners from JJ Quinn's yard to look out for at Ayr are those sent off at 2/1 or bigger, running at Class 5 or 6 over 6f and further, as these runners are 8 from 44 (18.2% SR) for 32.97pts (+74.9% ROI), including...

  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 43.97pts (+133.2%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 7/32 (21.9%) for 30.2pts (+94.4%) with male runners
  • 5/27 (18.5%) for 27.5pts (+101.8%) at class 6
  • and 5/18 (27.8%) for 47.48pts (+263.8%) from those who last ran 11-25 earlier...

...whilst males who ran 11-35 days earlier and now run in an 8-13 runner Class 6 contest are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 45.5pts (+505.5% ROI)...

So, an in-form jockey riding in the type of contest the yard excels in, but what about the horse himself? Well, Mr Wagyu is 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 23.63pts (+147.7% ROI) when sent off shorter than 9/1 on a straight 6f strip after just 6-25 days rest.

Of relevance today from those 16 races, all on the Flat, he is...

  • 7/13 (53.8%) for 26.63pts (+204.8%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 27.63pts (+230.2%) in June/July
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 28.63pts (+260.3%) when in the frame LTO
  • 6/12 (50%) for 22.03pts (+183.6%) at Class 4 or lower
  • 4/8 (50%) for 5.04pts (+63%) more than 100 miles from home
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 17.45pts (+349%) after finishing 3rd LTO...

...whilst in 6-11 runner contests at Class 4 or lower during June/July after being placed LTO, he is 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 26.03pts (+325.3% ROI), including 4/4 travelling more than 100 miles from the yard, 4/4 after finishing 3rd LTO and 3/3 when sent over 100 miles away after a third place finish...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mr Wagyu @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (at least 3 BOGs) at 6.45am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.