Posts

Thursday's Pick was...

8.45 Chelmsford : Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 13/8 (Off the pace towards rear, still plenty to do 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hampered inside final furlong, kept on, too much to do)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 5, 1m Flat Handicap for 3yo+ on Good ground, worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding actually won this very race two years ago, when also down as carrying 9st 7lbs and more recently was only beaten by a head last time out. That was also over this course and distance, when he was nailed in the final strides 8 days ago. He runs off the same mark again today, so jockey Jamie Gormley's 3lb claim might just make all the difference here.

Jamie is riding well at present, winning 10 of his 54 rides (18.5% SR) over the last 4 weeks recording profits of 17.4pts at an ROI of 32.3% if anyone was backing him blindly and of those 54 rides, he is...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 19.2pts (+40.1%) on the Flat
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 24.4pts (+52%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 26.2pts (+64%) in Flat handicaps
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 16.3pts (+56.3%) in Scotland
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 19.3pts (+74.3%) in Flat handicaps run in Scotland
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.2pts (+73.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.2pts (+184%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 12.7pts (+211.3%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps run in Scotland!

I said that Zeshov won this race two years ago and narrowly failed over C&D last time out and these two runs form part of his 2 wins & 2 places from 5 runs at Musselburgh in total, including 2 wins, 2 places from four over this 1m course and distance : all at Class 5.

Now onto our trainer, Rebecca Bastiman, for she has done well here at this venue of late, seeing her horses win 10 of 45 (22.2% SR) handicaps over the last two seasons generating level stakes profits of 21.8pts (+48.6% ROI) and of these runners, who are all males by the way...

  • in fields of 6-10 runners : 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.9pts (+79.2%)
  • those rated (OR) 55-85 are 10/30 (33.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%)
  • 6-9 yr olds are 9/25 (36%) for 38.1pts (+152.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/25 (36%) for 22.8pts (+91.2%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 6/22 (27.3%) for 22.2pts (+101%)
  • won or beaten by less than 4L LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.6pts (+97.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.87pts (+45.8%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 6.83pts (+75.9%)

AND...from the above...6-9 yr olds rated 55-85 at odds of 6/1 and shorter in fields of 6-10 runners are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+217.8% ROI).

Although jockey Jamie Gormley has never actually ridden on this track for trainer Rebecca Bastiman before, the partnership has 3 wins from 8 (37.5% SR) for 5.83pts (+72.9% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 handicaps in Scotland this year, with a further 3 of the 5 losers making the frame...

...all pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by SkyBet & Bet365 respecively as of 5.45pm on Thursday evening. I will, of course, be settling at 11/4 BOG,. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's Runner was...

3.45 Hexham : Itstimeforapint @ 5/1 BOG  4th at 5/1 Held up last, mistake 2nd, left modest 4th 19th, ridden and weakened after 2 out.

And now we move on to Friday's...

11.30 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m0.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on good ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?

An in-form 9yr old gelding who has finished 3121 in his last four starts, all at today's Class 4 under today's jockey Jamie Hamilton with three of those races (311) taking place here at Musselburgh. He was last seen 30 days ago winning here by three lengths and putting another winner on the board for trainer Sandy Thomson, who over the last two years...

...has 35 winners from 195 NH (17.95% SR) runners yielding 224.1pts profit at an ROI of 114.9% and these figures include...

  • males at 35/174 (20.1%) for 245.1pts (+140.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/97 (18.6%) for 203.6pts (+209.9%)
  • over hurdles : 16/97 (16.5%) for 202.3pts (+208.5%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 5/1 : 23/73 (31.5%) for 17.5pts (+23.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f and shorter : 13/48 (27.1%) for 211.9pts (+441.5%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 10/36 (27.8%) for 28.7pts (+79.8%)
  • and 9yr olds are 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.56pts (+53.5%)

The above profit & respective ROI figures are admittedly skewed by a 66/1 non-handicap winner, but that doesn't detract from some excellent strike rates and if you just took male Class 4 handicap hurdlers at odds of 6/5 to 9/1, like we have today, you'd have 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 19pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, from which...

  • here at Musselburgh : 2/4 for 5.02pts
  • 2m1f and shorter : 2/2 for 5.02pts
  • 9 yr olds : 2/2 for 5.02pts

AND... 9 yr olds here at Musselburgh over 2m1f and shorter = 2/2 for 5.02pts, achieved by Nendrum on his two visits here with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle this year!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Friday's Result :

4.15 Lingfield : Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 Made all, set steady pace until quickened over 2f out, held on well to win by 0.75 lengths...

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 4m1f on Good To Soft ground worth £25,024 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding with four wins and three places from his last nine efforts over fences and he has won three of five starts on good to soft ground, including two from three over fences.

His yard is in good form too with Sue Smith's runners winning four of eleven over the past seven days, with five of the seven "losers" managing to make the frame.

Since 2012, Sue's handicap chasers racing at trips of 2m5f and beyond on ground with the word soft in the going description are 42 from 297 (14.1% SR) generating level stakes profits of 121.8pts at an ROI of some 41%.

And, of those 297 runners, those that were Sue's only runner at a given track that day went on to win 7 of 31 (22.6% SR) for 36.6pts (+117.9% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG which was available from around a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Result :

6.10 Newcastle : Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 In touch, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, beaten by 2.5 lengths.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £10.007 to the winner...

Why?

Keith Dalgleish is better known for his prowess with Flat/AW runners, but also does quite well with a smaller string of NH horses and to date, his record with chasers stands at 11 wins from 28 (39.3% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI) profit, all from male horses! It's a small sample size, but does show that he knows what he's doing and in respect of today's contest, those 28 chasers are...

  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.25pts (+136.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 20.86pts (+160.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m4f
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.71pts (+53.1%) at Class 3
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.35pts (+58.8%) here at Musselburgh

He now runs this dual-purpose 8 yr old gelding, who won 3 of 5 starts over fences in 2016/17, including a 21 lengths success in this race last year before reverting back to the Flat/AW, where he won 2 of 4 ahead of today's return to chasing. So, he effectively comes here on a run of 5 from 9, but it's his 3/5 chasing record that's more relevant here, as it contains...

  • 3/3 when priced shorter than 4-1 & 3/3 in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 2/2 over trips of 2m/2m0.5f & 1/1 here at Musselburgh
  • 1/1 over C&D + 1/1 at Class 3 (Both in this race in 2017)
  • 1/1 in January and 1/1 going right handed (also both here in 2017)

Plus, since 2010, chasers who ran on either the Flat or A/W last time out and either won or lost by less than 15 lengths then won 110 of 720 (15.3% SR) returns to chasing, generating 431.4pts (+59.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • males at 98/653 (15%) for 418.9pts (+64.1%)
  • handicappers at 58/391 (14.8%) for 233.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 19/80 (23.75%) for 250.2pts (+312.8%)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 3/12 (25%) for 2.72pts (+22.7%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's Result :

5.05 Warwick : Bronco Billy @ 5/2 BOG (15/8 after a 25p R4) WON at 10/11 In rear in 3rd and well behind, headway to take 2nd 7 out, led before 4 out, clear from 3 out, won easily by 15 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.40 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sebastians Wish10/3 BOG

Why?

Here we have a 4yr old gelding who was 0 from 9 at the turn of the year, but since a switch to Keith Dalgleish's yard is now 2 from 2 in 2017! The latest of those wins came here 22 days ago, here at Musselburgh over 1m6f, when ridden by today's jockey, Joe Fanning, for the first time.

Joe, for his part, rides Musselburgh well as exemplified by his 76 winners from 391 (19.4% SR) since 2009 and although the level stakes profits seem modest at 25.4pts, an ROI of 6.5% from blindly backing a jockey with almost 400 rides at one track is actually pretty good.

As for the trainer, Keith Dalgleish, he also has a decent record here with 44 winners from 307 (14.3% SR) since the start of 2013 generating profits of 75.6pts at a healthy ROI of 24.6%, including of note/relevance today...

  • those who last ran 16-25 days ago : 14/83 (16.9%) for 97.9pts (+118%)
  • LTO winners are 13/35 (37.1%) for 41.1pts (+117.3%)
  • and at 1m 4.5f : 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts (+136.5%)

And finally, back to the horse,Sebastians Wish , he's also of note on his own accord, as he scores well on the Geegeez Shortlist, with a green rating for going, class and course with an amber score for distance. In numerical terms, this means he's won on good to firm ground already, both his wins this year have been at today's Class 6 and he's 1 from 1 here at Musselburgh.

As for his amber rating for distance, he has no wins at today's 1m4.4f trip, but does have wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, so the trip is definitely "gettable" for him and also don't forget two other bits of data from earlier : he's 2 from 2 for his new trainer and 1 from 1 under today's jockey...

...but for now...a 1pt win bet on Sebastians Wish10/3 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Thursday, but those able to grab the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Thursday's Result :

5.10 Lingfield : Bamako du Chatelet @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never on terms

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cosmic Ray3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is quickly turned back out just 6 days after finishing 4th in a tough-looking 14 runner handicap at Haydock. Yet, despite only finishing fourth, he was actually only beaten by three quarters of a length and had won his previous outing, so he's clearly in good nick.

That win two starts ago also came after only a short layoff (5 days that time) so the quick reappearance shouldn't be too much of a concern and as both that win and his latest near-miss were both in Class 5 contests, being able to run off an unchanged mark in a lower grade is also a positive.

These short rests seem to have become a successful MO of his trainer, Les Eyre, of late as since the start of 2016, Les' record with handicappers running 4 to 7 days after their last effort stands at 6 winners from 22 (27.3% SR) for 15.05pts (+68.4% ROI) and although that a fairly small sample size, those runners do share many similarities with the entry of Cosmic Ray here, such as...

  • those with a top 4 finish LTO are 6/16 (37.5%) for 21.05pts (+131.6%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 6.84pts (+114%)
  • those priced below 7/2 are 4/5 (80%) for 9.04pts (+180.8%)
  • those beaten by less than a length LTO are 3/4 (75%) for 10.29pts (+257.2%)
  • and Class 6 runners are 2/4 (50%) for 1.57pts (+39.3%%)

Throw in a jockey, Joe Fanning, who is not only in good form himself (6/22 in the last 7 days prior to three rides here at Musselburgh on Thursday night), but also has a 19% strike rate (69/364) on this track since 2010...

...and you've got yourself...a 1pt win bet on Cosmic Ray3/1 BOG which was on offer in around a half dozen places at 5.50pm on Thursday, but those able to should take either 7/2 BOG from Paddy Power or 10/3 BOG from Betfair Sports. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Picansort @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up in rear, not clear run on inside over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, beaten by a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dear Sire 11/2 BOG

Why?

Short and hopefully sweet today...

Donald McCain's record here at Musselburgh since the start of 2012 stands at 33 winners from 149 (22.2% SR) for 28.5pts (+19.2% ROI) profit and with regards to today's race, those runners are...

  • 26/86 (30.2%) for 45.5pts (+50.6%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 24/63 (38.1%) for 22.2pts (+35.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m3.5f
  • 14/56 (25%) for 29.4pts (+52.5%) after a break of 11 to 30 days
  • and 16/43 (37.2%) for 57.6pts (+133.8%) carrying 11st to 11st4lbs

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dear Sire 11/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 and Hills at 6.05pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Thursday's Result :

3.45 Southwell: Free Bounty @ 5/1 BOG WON at 3/1 Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, led entering final furlong, ridden and ran on to win by over 3 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Quite a simple one (by my standards, anyway!) today with a horse who has finished 11331 in his 5 last runs in hurdle competition over today's trip and he's 1 from 1 over course and distance.

He's trained by Donald McCain who is 35/154 (22.7% SR) for 38.1pts (+24.7% ROI) here at Musselburgh over the last 5 yrs, including...

  • those carrying 11st 2lbs or more : 26/109 (23.9%) for 46.9pts (+43%)
  • at Classes 4 to 7 : 27/89 (30.3%) for 46.5pts (+52.2%)
  • over 2m 3f / 2m 3.5f : 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.2%)
  • and at this Class 4 : 14/57 (24.6%) for 36pts (+63.1%)

...and for me, that's worth...a 1pt win bet on Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and four others at 5.20pm on Thursday, although those of you lucky/quick enough can get 13/2 BOG from Betfair Sports. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Monday's Result :

3.50 Plumpton : Shimba Hills @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/4 Held up in last pair, smooth headway on wide outside tracking leaders before 3 out, 2nd between last two, ridden to lead run-in, driven out to win by a half length.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.30 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Quite often I give you lots of data around the past performance of trainers and jockeys and the breeding of a horse, which all then suggest that chosen runner will perform well under the race conditions ahead. Today is slightly different, because I've chosen a horse proven in the type of race he'll face.

I suppose it's the old horses for courses adage. Anyway Proud Gamble has won four of his twenty starts to date, which is decent, but unspectacular, yet when we see that his record in non-novice handicap chases is 4 wins and 3 places from 12 (33.3% win SR) for level stakes profits of 11.95pts at an ROI of 99.6%, then I'm suddenly interested.

A closer look at those 12 experiences have prepared him for today tells us that he is...

  • 4 from 10 (40%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%) over 2m7.5f/3m
  • 4 from 10 (40%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%) at 6 to 45 days after his last run
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.35pts (+53.5%) under jockey Craig Nichol
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 15.95pts (+199.4%) in the August to February period
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 15.95pts (+199.4%) going right handed
  • 4 from 6 (66.7%) for 17.95pts (+299.2%) at odds of 13/2 and shorter
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 12.01pts (+200.2%) on Good ground
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 9.35pts (+155.8%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 5.41pts (+135.25%) at Class 4.

AND...from the above over 2m7.5f/3m at odds of 13/2 and shorter, 6-45 days since he last ran, going right handed in August to February, he is 4 from 5 (80%) for 18.95pts (+379% ROI).

Of those 5 races, he is 3/4 under Craig Nichol, 3/4 here at Musselburgh, 3/4 on Good ground and 2/2 at Class 4.

Which leads to a 2 from 2 record for 7.41pts profit under today's conditions where he runs in a Class 4 handicap chase here at Musselburgh on good ground under Craig Nichol over 2m7.5f/3m at odds of 13/2 and shorter, 6-45 days since he last ran, going right handed in August to February!

...making it worth...a 1pt win bet on Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 15 others (so we should all get the same price!) at 6.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Saturday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Yorker @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 8.20am : Self Cert - Lame)

Monday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Donna's Pride @ 9/2 BOG 

Why?

This 7 yr old mare might well be on a fairly lengthy (14) losing run, but she's looked more like her old self of late, making the frame four times in her last six appearances, symptomatic of an upturn in form for the Keith Reveley yard as a whole.

As a result of not winning, she now runs off a mark lower than her last winning effort and a drop in class might well just make that difference needed to get her home. That thought is backed up by the fact that Keith Reveley's NH handicap class droppers are 27/129 (20.9% SR) for 85.7pts (+66.4% ROI) since the start of 2010, with...

  • those dropping just 1 grade winning 21/103 (20.4%) for 69.8pts (+67.8%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back : 20/86 (23.3%) for 76.2pts (+88.6%)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 : 20/70 (28.6%) for 55.4pts (+79.1%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 : 6/34 (17.7%) for 13.2pts (+38.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4%) for 54.6pts (+237.5%)

It's also worth noting that in that same 2010-16 timeframe that Keith's handicap hurdlers running at a lower mark than their last win and on a losing streak of 5 or more races are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 39.3pts (+187.1% ROI) when sent off in the 11/4 to 7/1 price banding, from which Class 5 runners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.2pts (+305%)

...resulting in...a 1pt win bet on Donna's Pride at  9/2 BOG, a price offered at 7.05pm on Sunday by my preferred Bet365, but also from betVictor and Marathon. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Saturday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Yorker @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 8.20am : Self Cert - Lame)

Monday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Donna's Pride @ 9/2 BOG 

Why?

This 7 yr old mare might well be on a fairly lengthy (14) losing run, but she's looked more like her old self of late, making the frame four times in her last six appearances, symptomatic of an upturn in form for the Keith Reveley yard as a whole.

As a result of not winning, she now runs off a mark lower than her last winning effort and a drop in class might well just make that difference needed to get her home. That thought is backed up by the fact that Keith Reveley's NH handicap class droppers are 27/129 (20.9% SR) for 85.7pts (+66.4% ROI) since the start of 2010, with...

  • those dropping just 1 grade winning 21/103 (20.4%) for 69.8pts (+67.8%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back : 20/86 (23.3%) for 76.2pts (+88.6%)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 : 20/70 (28.6%) for 55.4pts (+79.1%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 : 6/34 (17.7%) for 13.2pts (+38.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4%) for 54.6pts (+237.5%)

It's also worth noting that in that same 2010-16 timeframe that Keith's handicap hurdlers running at a lower mark than their last win and on a losing streak of 5 or more races are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 39.3pts (+187.1% ROI) when sent off in the 11/4 to 7/1 price banding, from which Class 5 runners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.2pts (+305%)

...resulting in...a 1pt win bet on Donna's Pride at  9/2 BOG, a price offered at 7.05pm on Sunday by my preferred Bet365, but also from betVictor and Marathon. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Wednesday's Result :

6.20 Stratford : Rossetti @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Hampered 1st, tracked leaders, led approaching soon hung left and mistake last, ran on well to win by almost 4 lengths)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ginger Jack at 7/2 BOG

Why?

Over the last two years, trainer Garry Moss has quietly gone about his business, but has been one of the unsung standout performers on the Flat from a fairly small string of horses.

The past 24 months have seen his runners win 18 of their 74 (24.3% SR) races for level stakes profits of 77.4pts (+104.5% ROI) and not only is Ginger Jack his only chance of further success today, the profile if this race seems to fit Garry's MO very well indeed, as those 74 runners are...

  • 17/67 (25.4%) for 78.4pts (+117%) turned out within 60 days of their last run
  • 17/63 (27%) for 68pts (+107.9%) in handicaps
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 73pts (+121.6%) since the start of the 2015 season
  • 14/54 (25.9%) for 80.8pts (+149.6%) from his male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.2%) over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 33.6pts (+101.8%) priced at 5/4 to 13/2
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 38.7pts (+175.7%) on good to firm ground
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.64pts (+47%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 2.7pts (+33.7%) ridden by today's jockey, Jason Hart.

All of the above data would convince me to place a bet on Garry's runner in this contest, but even more so when I see that it's Ginger Jack representing the yard, because he also seems very well suited by the task ahead of him, based upon past results.

To date, this 9 yr old gelding has won 11 times from 63 Flat /AW contests, with his decent 17.5% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of just 0.85pts at an ROI of 1.35%.

Now I'm aware that this level of return isn't satisfactory, but a good win ratio allied to blind profitability is always the minimum requirement before I assess the suitability of the contest for my chosen runner.

And when we look closer at his 63 races in respect of today's outing, we find that those runs include the following of note...

  • 11/50 (22%) for 13.9pts (+27.8%) if fields of 5-15 runners
  • 9/40 (22.5%) for 14.3pts (+35.7%) over this 1m trip
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 2.46pts (+6.47%) after a break of 6-30 days
  • 10/25 (40%) for 26.75pts (+107%) when priced at 13/2 and shorter
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 7.3pts (+34.6%) on good to firm ground
  • 2/8 (25%) for 3.73pts (+46.6%) since moving to Garry Moss
  • 1/1 here at Musselburgh, a course and distance win

...leading me to... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jack at 7/2 BOG, from any of the ten or so firms all quoting that price at 7.25pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Musselburgh.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Thursday's Result :

8.25 Sandown : Choral Clan @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Held up, in touch, pushed along over 3f out, kept on final furlong, not trouble leaders)

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Amirli at 7/2 BOG

Why?

A winner here at Musselburgh a week ago over 1m 5f under today's jockey staying on well, looks to have a great chance if handling the step back up in trip.

No massive blockbuster stat behind this one, but three angles that are enough to make him worth another punt today...

  1.  Trainer Alistair Whillans' Musselburgh handicappers at 8/1 and shorter are 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 34.7pts (+64.3% ROI) since 2013.
    *
  2. His Flat handicappers dropping down a class and priced at 5/2 to 10/1 are 16/78 (20.5% SR) for 52.2pts (+66.9% ROI) since 2010, with those dropping into Class 6 company winning 9 of 37 (24.3%) for 39.1pts (+105.6%).
    *
  3. His Flat handicappers ridden by a 3lb claimer at 5/2 to 12/1 are 9/51 (17.7% SR) for 43pts (+84.3% ROI) since 2012, with Class 5/6 runners impressing with 8 wins from 37 (21.6%) for 53.2pts (+143.8%) profit.

...which leads me to... a 1pt win bet on Amirli at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365, Betbright and/or Hills, who led the way at 5.30pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Monday's Result :

8.50 Windsor : Shifting Star @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Keen led, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, no extra)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bridal March at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Quite simply, this one revolves around Mark Johnston and his generally good record here at Musselburgh, that also applies well to this type of race. So we'll kick off with Mark's record here since the start of 2012, which is excellent at 50 winners from 239 (20.9% SR) for 60.9pts (+25.5% ROI) profit.

Such figures alone are enough to create an interest in any of his runners at this venue, but here are my top 1o facts about his runners that apply to this particular race, which should hopefully strengthen (y)our confidence in the pick.

  1.  those with a run in the last 30 days : 32/165 (19.4%) for 52pts (+31.5%)
  2.  those ridden by Joe Fanning : 40/145 (27.6%) for 68.4pts (+47.2%)
  3.  female runners are 22/90 (24.4%) for 62.4pts (+69.3%)
  4.  class 5 runners are 26/77 (33.8%) for 26pts (+33.8%)
  5.   in non-handicap races : 20/66 (30.3%) for 40.2pts (+60.9%)
  6.  over the 7f trip : 17/66 (25.8% for 23pts (+34.8%)
  7.  2 year olds are 16/62 (25.8%) for 33.9pts (+54.6%)
  8.  unrated (OR) horses are 17/58 (29.3%) for 42.2pts (+72.8%)
  9.  in maidens : 16/48 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+53.7%)
  10.  in 2yo maidens: 10/36 (27.8%) for 21.3pts (+59.4%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above to close in on a smaller number of selections and there are loads of ways you could do that, but I'll just give you one fairly generic example : Mark Johnston / Joe Fanning / Females / Class 5 within 30 days of last run = 6/15 (40%) for 15.34pts (+102.3%) and four of the last six have won.

...all of which means the call is a 1pt win bet on Bridal March at 11/4 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, who were the clear leaders in a sparsely populated market at 5.15pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

More LIVE C4 action This Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown, York and Musselburgh and as always Andy Newton’s got all the key trends & stats to help you narrow down the fields - hopefully these will point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.10 – betstars.uk For Horse Racing Handicap Cl3 1m1f CH4

11/14 – Had won just once before
10/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
9/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
9/14 – Rated between 80-87
9/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Had raced at the track before
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 11/1

 

2.45 – BetStars By Pokerstars Handicap Cl2 1m14y CH4

Only 4 previous runnings
3/4 – Aged 4 or younger
3/4 – Winners carried 9-5 or more
3/4 – Rated between 90-94
3/4 – Winners between stalls 6-9 (inc)
3/4 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
2/4 – Won last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Mark Johnston won the race in 2012
Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 20% record with her older horses at the track
Andrea Atzeni is just 1 from 32 riding older horses at the track

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.20 – betstars.uk Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y CH4

11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
9/11 – Had won over 5f before
9/11 – Placed favourites
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
7/11 – Had won at least 3 times before
6/11 – Came from stall 7 or higher
6/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
5/11 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
2/11 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 4/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.50 – Queen Mother´s Cup (Lady Amateur Riders) (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f CH4

12/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Carried 9-11 or more
11/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/13 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
10/13 – Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
10/13 – Rated between 80-89
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top four
9/13 – Had run at York before
9/13 – Won from a single-figure stall
8/13 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
8/13 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
7/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/13 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby
2/13 – Won by trainer Luca Cumani
2/13 – Ridden by Miss J Coward
0/13 – Placed horses from stall 2
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.4/1
Trainer Brian Ellison won the race 12 months ago

 

2.25 – betstars.uk Home of Spin & Bet Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

1 previous running
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 2 from 55 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 25 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 13 from 271 with his older horses at the track
Jockey Jim Crowley is only 1 from 41 when riding older horses at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is only 1 from 52 when riding older horses at the track
Jockey David Nolan is only 1 from 38 when riding older horses at the track

 

3.00 – Best Western Hotels Ganton Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m CH4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 5 or younger
4/4 – Irish bred
3/4 – Placed favourites
3/4 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Had won a Listed (or better) race before
3/4 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
2/4 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/4 – Winning favourites
Top Notch Tonto won the race in 2015
Andrew Balding won the race in 2012
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1

 

3.35 - 888Sport Charity Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

11/11 – Rated between 87-97
9/11 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
9/11 – Had won over 6f before
8/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Won by David Nicholls
2/11 – Won by Tim Easterby (inc 2 of the last 3 runnings)
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

 

Musselburgh Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

3.10 - William Hill Scottish Tartan Trophy (A Consolation For Scottish Sprint Cup) (Handicap) Cl3 5f CH4

Only 2 previous runnings
Pearl Acclaim won the race 12 months ago
The last 2 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Both recent winners carried 9-5 or more
Both winners came from double-figure stalls
Trainer Dandy Nicholls won the race in 2015
Trainer David Baron won the race in 2014
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 30% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Nicholls is just 3 from 68 with his older horses at the track

 

3.45 – William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4

11/12 – Won over 5f before
10/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 -  Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
9/12 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/12 – Had won between 2-5 times before
8/12 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/12 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
7/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Red Baron won the race in 2015

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Entertaining Ben - The saddle slipped at Brighton last time which was frustrating as he was in great form.  He is still working well at home and I am hoping he can go close today - looks a fair e/w price at around 20/1."
William Muir 07/06/16 1st 25/1

 

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays