Posts

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Bangor : Slidecheck @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/1 Held up mid-division, headway from 4 out, went 3rd from 2 out, kept on and lost 3rd place close home. I'm clearly not doing too well with the summer jumpers at present, so...

...Friday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

This 5yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago off a mark of 63, but failed to cope properly with a 5lb rise in weight a week later, only managing to finish third, a length and three quarters off the pace. He's up another 1lb for that run (I never really get how horses are penalised for losing), but the booking of the more than useful 5lb claimer Nathan Evans puts the horse on a very workable mark today.

Add in the fact that he's already won over this 7f trip on good to form ground and confidence starts to build. Some people don't like backing horses ridden by claimers, but certain trainers are very adept at using these jockeys and Mick Easterby certainly places them well, as since the start of 2012, 5lb claimers have won 24 of 170 handicaps (14.1% SR) for profits of 35.8pts (+21.1% ROI),

That's a decent return from blindly backing all runners, but better results can be achieved by using any of the following logical filters...

  • those priced 6/4 to 14/1 are 24/121 (19.8% SR) for 84.8pts (+70.1% ROI)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 16/98 (16.3% SR) for 38.6pts (+39.3% ROI)
  • at Class 5/6 : 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 83.3pts (+89.6% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 12/52 (23.01% SR) for 31.2pts (+60% ROI)
  • over trips of 5-7 furlongs : 9/45 (20% SR) for 39.5pts (+87.9% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 66pts (+157% ROI)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI)
  • and those last seen 26-45 days ago are 5/34 (14.7% SR) for 23.8pts (+70% ROI)

AND...Class 5/6 Flat (turf) handicappers priced at 6/4 to 14/1 are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 78.5pts (+160.3% ROI)

In addition to the above, 3 to 5 yr olds racing on the Flat over 5f to a mile 16 to 60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th and were also winners two starts ago (ie form of 12, 13 or 14) are 247/1384 (17.9% SR) for 320.3pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of the 2012 season, with the following of particular interest today...

  • those last seen 3 to 5 weeks ago are 132/716 (18.4% SR) for 207.6pts (+29% ROI)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 97/479 (20.3% SR) for 169.8pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 36/182 (19.8% SR) for 108.8pts (+59.8% ROI)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.75pts (+45.5% ROI)

AND...those racing on good to firm, three to five weeks after their last run are 53/252 (21% SR) for 117.2pts (+46.5% ROI)

So the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG which was available with either BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who were the best available at 8.00pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Saturday started with the late abandonment of the Ffos Las card, which restrcited us to 2 x 1pt singles on our Lingfield race, but thankfully I seemed to have read the Lingfield card very well, as my Stat Picks service had the winners of the first and last races on the card and we enjoyed a 1-2 finish in our race.

Things went even better when our longer priced horse, Taajub headed Burning Thread inside the final furlong, as this not only gave us a 5/1 single, but also a 19/1 exacta for those doing the exotics.

So, no double, but we got the best we could from the day.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Taajub : WON at 5/1 (adv 9/2)
Burning Thread : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £20.00 here!
----------------------------------------------------
Clyne : meeting abandoned (adv 2/1)
Cotillon : meeting abandoned (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
798 winning selections from 2874 = 27.75%
247 winning bets in 744 days = 33.11%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1487.00pts
Returns: 1556.53pts
P/L : +69.53pts (+4.68% ROI)

Monday's Selections...

2.40 Wolverhampton :

Not only does Haines receive weight all round, but he's a dab hand at these staying contests on the A/W. To date in A/W handicaps beyond 1m5f, he has 5 wins and 2 places from eight runs and another bold effort is expected today. He last ran three weeks ago, winning a 2m contest at Kempton by almost four lengths and the 5th placed horse from that contest (beaten by 7 lengths) then went on to win here at Wolverhampton 10 days ago, suggesting we'll get a decent run for our money here at 7/2 BOG, but...

...the presence of Paddy's Motorbike means he might have a stiffer task on his hands today, assuming the latter handles the step up in trip of an extra 4.5 furlongs. That said, he did produce a career best effort when winning a 1m4f handicap here last time out. The promisingly talented and in-form Josephine Gordon takes a valuable 5lbs off his back again today, as she did last time out and she'll be hoping to ride what would be her 8th winner inside the last month.

Much will revolve around Paddy's Motorbike's ability to step up in trip, as he'd probably be longer than his current 3/1 BOG odds otherwise.

3.30 Musselburgh :

Sandy Thomson's hurdlers are 7 from 27 here at Musselburgh and in So Satisfied, he'll be hoping for some improvement from a fine comeback run last time out. This horse was a decent third of twelve here over a longer trip on New Year's Day coming off the back of a 6 month break and with 7lb claimer Steven Fox retaining the ride, the drop back in trip should be more to his liking and I think So Satisfied has a fine chance of landing this at 100/30 BOG...

...with the main danger coming from the handicap debutant Lady Clitico. Her yard is in decent form at present and she herself showed considerable promise in her last three efforts over hurdles, finishing 4th and then 2nd both at Perth, before a fall at Sedgefield at the last hurdle whilst leading back in September.

She's had a break and has since returned to sharpen up with two runs on the A/W, most recently beaten by just 2 lengths over 1m4f and if returning to past hurdling form, Lady Clitico a real threat here at 7/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Paddy's Motorbike / So Satisfied @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Paddy's Motorbike / Lady Clitico @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Haines / So Satisfied @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Haines / Lady Clitico @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor, Coral & Paddy Power)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Wednesday's Result :

2.55 Musselburgh : Holly Bush Henry @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, headway before 2 out, soon pushed along to chase leader, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by a neck)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ziggys Star @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Ziggys Star is in prime form of late, having won each of his last two races wearing a hood in Class 5, 7f, A/W handicaps. He followed up a win at Chelmsford with a victory at Wolverhampton 17 days ago and looks well placed to land the hat-trick on his local track, less than 10 miles from home.

He is trained by Mick Appleby, who has enjoyed making the short journey to this course, especially as 97 of his 494 (19.6% SR) runners here since the start of 2012 have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 77.3pts at a healthy enough return of 15.7%. And in the context of today's race conditions, here's your Mick Appleby Southwell Stat Pack...

  • handicaps : 86/417 (20.6% SR) for 66.2pts (+15.9% ROI)
  • over 6f to 1m4f : 80/400 (20% SR) for 108.3pts (+27.1% ROI)
  • OR 50-80 : 83/375 (22.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+27% ROI)
  • males : 65/298 (21.8% SR) for 118.7pts (+39.8% ROI)
  • 4/5 yr olds : 53/241 (22% SR) for 69.7pts (+28.9% ROI)
  • 11-25 days since last run : 46/206 (22.3% SR) for 105.5pts (+51.2% ROI)
  • class 5 : 38/157 (24.2% SR) for 72.6pts (+46.2% ROI)
  • ran at Wolverhampton LTO : 17/83 (20.5% SR) for 15.5pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • won LTO : 24/73 (32.9% SR) for 25.6pts (+35.1% ROI)
  • ridden by Liam Jones : 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 28.2pts (+176% ROI)

And a micro? OK, Mick Appleby / Southwell A-W hcps / 7f to 1m4f / males rated 50 to 80 : 40/142 (28.2% SR) for 131.9pts (+92.9% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.15pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Ziggys Star and that's at 7/2 BOG Betfair's Sportsbook, who are currently the standout price for this one. To see the rest of the market, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Tuesday's Result :

2.35 Ayr : Un Noble @ 5/2 BOG WON at 2/1 (With leaders, led 9th, headed before 5 out, led 4 out, blundered last, kept on driven out to win by just over 3 lengths)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

2.55 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Holly Bush Henry @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

He's trained by Graeme McPherson, who although not possessing the greatest strike rate, has been profitable to back blindly in NH contests since the start of 2010.

His 745 runners have yielded 73 winners (9.8% SR) and level stakes profits of 192.5pts (+25.8% ROI), of which his handicappers are 54/470 (11.5% SR) for 237.4pts (+50.5% ROI).

From those 470 handicappers, his hurdlers are 35/311 (11.3% SR) for 173pts (+55.6% ROI) broken down further as follows...

  • males are 31/256 (12.1% SR) for 187.6pts (+73.3% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 12/62 (19.4% SR) for 54.1pts (+87.3% ROI)
  • Class 3 : 7/46 (15.2% SR) for 52.7pts (+114.6% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/39 (10.3% SR) for 48.5pts (+124.4% ROI)
  • ridden by Kielan Woods : 6/33 (18.2% SR) for 42.6pts (+129.2% ROI)

So far, Holly Bush Henry is 3 from 5 in his short career and since switching to the McPherson yard is 2 from 2, both in 2m0.5f soft ground handicap hurdles at Doncaster under Kielan Woods and as a result of that latest 6 lengths victory 39 days ago, he now seeks a hat-trick here, buoyed by the fact that...

...since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers racing within 60 days of an LTO handicap hurdle win by four lengths or more are 271/1050 (25.8% SR) for 227pts (+21.6% ROI) profit, with the following of interest from those 1050 runners...

  • 4 to 45 days since that last run/win : 258/995 (25.9% SR) for 228.2pts (+22.9% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 147/509 (28.9% SR) for 151.7pts (+29.8% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 69/258 (26.7% SR) for 93.1pts (+36.1% ROI)
  • here at Musselburgh : 5/22 (22.7% ROI) for 11.4pts (+51.7% ROI)

whilst 5-6 yr olds running on soft ground 4 to 45 days after an LTO win are 33/119 (27.7% SR) for 64.5pts (+54.2% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Holly Bush Henry and that's at 3/1 BOG with either BetVictor or Paddy Power. Betway do offer the same price, but only offer BOG on stakes of £10 or more placed after 10.00am on race day. 11/4 BOG is, however, widely available, as you'll see if you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Musselburgh :

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 27th November 2015

I got back amongst the winners in race 1 yesterday as Ginger Joe made all and ran on well to land the seller at Southwell by the best part of two lengths with our other runner Powered back in third place, almost five lengths off the pace and with Ginger Joe drifting out to 3/1, we were well placed to land the double in race 2...

...where I'd identified three possibles and discarded Ballyegan as I thought he'd need the run and I was right in that respect as he weakened late on before finishing third, beaten by almost 20 lengths. Of our two hopefuls, Double Chocolate unseated his rider at the 11th, leaving all our hopes with Dawnieriver, whose price drift out to 4/1 meant we were on for a 19/1 payout, if he could hold on to the lead.

Unfortunately he was headed two out and although he rallied and stayed on towards the finsih, he was beaten into second place by alength and a half and that was that. Close, but no cigar, I'm afraid.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Ginger Joe : WON at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Powered : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Dawnieriver : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Double Chocolate : UR at 7/4 (adv 9/4)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
740 winning selections from 2643 = 28.00%
233 winning bets in 685 days = 34.01%

Stakes: 1369.00pts
Returns: 1463.42pts
P/L : +94.42pts (+6.90% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are Friday's selected races...

1.45 Musselburgh :

Donald McCain's horses have a good record at this venue and in The Backup Plan, there's a good chance of another winner at 7/2 BOG with a horse that won back to back chases at Sedgefield in August/September at a similar trip to today, but failed in his hat-trick bid last time out. He was stepped up to 3m2f and whether he'd have got it or not is unclear as he fell at the 11th fence when well clear. He's had three weeks to get over it and provided there's no ill effect from the fall, he should go well again.

However, he'll have to beat the inform Throthehatch to do so. The current 7/4 BOG favourite comes here also seeking a hat-trick after a virtual stroll at Kelso last time out. He's lightly raced (1 x bumper, 3 x hurdles) so far and comes here with a 2 from 2 record over fences and although up in both trip and weight, the manner of his run last time out suggests that this will be just another step forward in his progression.

*

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Air of York has already won four times this year and with finishes of 131 in his last three outings, he clearly brings the best form to the table. He won over 5f and then 6f at Chelmsford & Southwell respectively, but found 5f a little too sharp here at Wolverhampton in between those runs, yet stayed on well in the closing stages. The extra furlong is sure to help and running under a penalty, he still looks favourably treated here and is my preferred option at 13/8 BOG.

The 4yr old filly Bush Beauty is interesting here too, as she returned to form last time out to win here over course and distance taking her record on this track to 4/13 and 3 from 6 over course and distance. She's only up 3lbs for the win to a mark of 64, enabling her to remain in this 0-65 class, but she has already won here at Wolves off marks of 66 & 67 this year, so on that basis, she's worth consideration at a healthy 11/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows, based on prices available at 8.00am

Throthehatch / Air of York @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Totesport)
Throthehatch / Bush Beauty @ 16.88/1 (7/4 & 11/2 : BetVictor & Coral)
The Backup Plan / Air of York @ 10.81/1 (7/2 & 13/8 : Hills & Ladbrokes)
The Backup Plan / Bush Beauty @ 28.25/1 (7/2 & 11/2 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 6th November 2015

In what is now becoming a regular and frustrating occurrence, we had a winner and a runner-up yesterday and even the consolation of an 8.4/1 exacta from race 1 wasn't enough to brighten my mood, as we ended up 8 lengths shy of an 11.5/1 double.

Thursday's results were as follows:

The Cobbler Swayne : WON at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Court Dismissed : 2nd at 10/3 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £9.40 here.
----------------------------------------------------
Ready Token : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Master Neo : PU at 5/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
717 winning selections from 2574 = 27.86%
226 winning bets in 667 days = 33.88%

Stakes: 1333.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +93.64pts (+7.02% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

These are Friday's selected races...

2.30 Musselburgh :

Just four go to post here, but I expect an interesting tusssle between The Backup Plan and Present Flight.

The Backup Plan (9/4 BOG) comes here seeking a hat trick after successive handicap chase victories over trips of 2m3.5f. It's difficult to assess just how much scope he has, but he does keep finding more he time he runs, which is an admirable trait.

His trainer Donald McCain has a decent record at this venue and in The backup Plan, he has a horse that has really taken to fences and who likes to dictate affairs from the front. This is a major step up in trip and might raise stamina doubts, but he did win a 3 mile PTP in 2013 and the expoerienced Brian Harding will no doubt attempt to slow the race down to suit The Backup Plan.

The extra distance, however, is set to suit top weight Present Flight, as he seemed to struggle with the slowish ground and inadequate 2m4f trip at Hexham last time out and more is expected on a faster surface and stepping back up in trip.

There was also a suggestion that after just a 6-day rest, the Hexham run came too soon after completing 2m7.5f at Kelso, where he ran out an 11 lengths winner, beating Derryfadda who won a 3m chase here yesterday, suggesting another good show from Present Flight at 2/1 BOG.

*

6.10 Chelmsford :

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this became a Godolphin 1-2 with Anglophile and Famous Kid filling the places today. The trainers of both horses are in good recent form and both have decent records on this track and in that respect, there's little between them.

Anglophile (9/4 BOG) would be my preference, having finished in the first two home in each of his six outings over the last year (211212), he goes well on the A/W, runs well in small fields and with a win and a narrow defeat in this grade at 1m 7.5f in his last two starts, stamina won't be an issue.

Famous Kid, on the other hand, hasn't won in the UK since landing back to back handicaps in September 2014, but in his defence he has done most of his recent running in better quakity races than this one and whilst in Dubai earlier in the year was a runner-up over 1m2f on dirt and then a winner over 1m4f on turf. He was ahead of some decent horses in those runs and this drop in class might just get him back to winning ways at 9/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Present Flight / Anglophile @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Present Flight / Famous Kid @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : generally)
The Backup Plan / Anglophile @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Coral)
The Backup Plan / Famous Kid @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Coral & Ladbrokes)

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2015

Thursday's Result :

5.10 Cheltenham : Lavinia Rose @ 100/30 BOG : 4th at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed and lost 2nd well inside final furlong, lost 3rd close home, eventually beaten by 1.5 lengths)

Friday's selection runs in the...

3.30 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kodicil @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Mark Walford has had a rather productive week with 3 winners and 1 placer from just 6 runners over the last week, whilst during the same time jockey Jake Greenall has ridden 4 winners from 8 with two further placed finishes.

Together over the last week, they are 3 from 4 and overall Jake has ridden 9 winners from 32 (28.1% SR) attempts on the Walford string, accruing level stakes profits of 79.5pts (248.3% ROI) in the process, from which...

  • they are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+161.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • and 6/20 (30% SR) for 37.6pts (++188.1% ROI) in chases, which puts them on
  • 6 winners from 16 handicap chases, a 37.5% strike rate yielding 41.6pts at an ROI of 260.1% and they're 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 40.5pts (+578.1% ROI) this year.

Kodicil is Mark Walford's only runner making the 190-mile trip North from Sheriff Hutton for this fixture today and in the past when mark has been represented by a sole runner at a track, that horse has won 24 of 191 (12.6% SR) for profits of 44.7pts (+23.4% ROI), broken down with today's race in mind as follows...

  • male runners are 22/143 (15.4% SR) for 71.2pts (+49.8% ROI)
  • NH runners are 13/77 (16.9% SR) for 44.8pts (+58.2% ROI)
  • chasers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 19.4pts (+60.6% ROI)
  • 7yr olds are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 26pts (+108.4% ROI)
  • those racing over 2m4f/2m4.5f are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 41.9pts (+220.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Jake Greenall are also 4/19 (21.1% SR), but for 38.3pts (+201.7% ROI)

Kodicil was a winner on his last run over fences, 7 weeks ago at Uttoxeter and he has kept sharp with a spin on the Flat, whilst 7 of his rivals from Uttoxeter have already tackled fences again, with 4 of them winning and 1 making the frame. The most notable run to ome from that contest was a win for Jayo Time at a higher grade than this race today, so I'm expecting the form to hold out.

As well as that form seeming to be strong, conditions look favourable too for a horse who is 7 from 25 in fields of 5 to 9 runners, 4 from 16 in cheekpieces, 4 from 15 on good ground and 3 from 11 over trips of 2m3f to 2m4.5f.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Kodicil at 6/1 BOG with either of 10Bet, Betfair Sports, BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet and/or Stan James, although the latter don't go BOG until 10.00am. I've used Coral for my bet because they're giving refunds on fallers, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 5th November 2015

Another proverbial "game of two halves" yesterday as once more we had an unpaired winner.

The day started really well with Net Work Rouge beating Dan Emmett by 3.5 lengths with the third place horse the same distance further behind, giving us a 5/2 win to take to race 2 plus a 22.8/1 exacta for those playing the exotics and a small profit for those of you who followed me into an E/W bet on Dan Emmett at 9/1!

I thought Kempton's leg of the double would be tight between Fire Fighting and Grendisar and they were only 1.75 lengths and one place apart, but unfortunately there was three other runners ahead of them, as that 1.75 length gap between our chosen two was also the margin of defeat for Fire Fighting in a tight race where all nine runners were only 6.5 lengths apart from first to last.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Net Work Rouge : WON at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Dan Emmett : 2nd at 13/2 (adv 9/1)
The Exacta paid £23.80 here.
----------------------------------------------------
Fire Fighting : 4th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Grendisar : 5th at 2/1 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
716 winning selections from 2570 = 27.86%
226 winning bets in 666 days = 33.93%

Stakes: 1331.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +95.64pts (+7.19% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

These are Thursday's selected races...

1.30 Musselburgh :

The Cobbler Swayne is interesting here, as he tackles fences for the first time, but has won over 3m of soft ground in an Irish PTP race, before embarking on his race career, suggesting neither jumping nor stamina should be an issue here. He looked to be going really well at Carlisle last time out, returning from a 7-month absence, but through no fault of his own, was badly hampered and brought down.

Obviously, I can't say he was denied a win, but he was travelling very strongly and with less traffic to contend with with today (only 7 rivals as opposed to 13 LTO), there should be less of a chance of another runner getting in his way and in what doesn't look too strong a contest, The Cobbler Swayne has every chance at 9/4 BOG.

Another lightly raced/unexposed sort is Court Dismissed, who was gently introduced to fences on his last outing, also at Carlisle. It was clear from a good way out that the 2m trip was inadequate and he struggled with the pace of the contest, but jumped well throughout, which suggests he'll do the same again today. He was also coming off the back of a 5 months rest, so could very well have needed a run.

Prior to that chase debut, he had run consistently well, making the frame in both bumpers contested, before finishes of 31242 in his five hurdles runs. He "gets" 2m4f well enough and his sole win to date was at this class 4 level and Court Dismissed is my Plan B at 4/1 BOG, especially with his trainer's excellent record at this track.

*

2.15 Market Rasen :

Master Neo won this race last year on similarly soft ground as he'll face today and he's now a 1lb lighter than he was for that win where he beat the consistent (at this level, at least) American Legend by 20 lengths. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length here over 2m 5.5f on his reappearance from a break in September, but was a faller on his only run since.

He has fallen in the past and then returned without his confidence dented too much and provided that's the case here and he runs to the levels he's capable of, then Master Neo has every chance of retaining this race at 3/1 BOG.

But he'll have to see off the in-form 2/1 BOG favourite Ready Token to do so. He closed out his summer campaign with a 3.5 length made-all win at Fontwell over 3m 1.5f, before going down by two necks in third place at Ffos Las. Both those runs were in June of this year and the winner of that Ffos Las race, Clubs Are Trumps, went on to win his next two races.

Ready Token then took a 109-day break before resurfacing here at Market Rasen a month ago, where he ran out a 15 lengths winner over course and distance and he really could have won by much more, making him a very live contender here, despite a 9lb rise in the weights.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

The Cobbler Swayne / Ready Token @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Bet365)
The Cobbler Swayne / Master Neo @ 11.50/1 (85/40 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Court Dismissed / Ready Token @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Court Dismissed / Master Neo @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Hills)

Double Dutch, 13th October 2015

Monday followed Saturday's lead with two more runners-up, as firstly The Juggler went down by 2.75 lengths in a maiden at Salisbury and then 70 minutes later at Windsor, Noblest was headed inside the final furlong, losing a similar contest by a length and a quarter.

We're knocking on the door and not far from away from hitting some doubles, but none of that improves the bottom line!

Monday's results were as follows:

The Juggler : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Beauchamp Monark : 6th at 8/1 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Noblest : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Brutus : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
697 winning selections from 2490 = 27.99%
222 winning bets in 646 days = 34.37%

Stakes: 1291.00pts
Returns: 1397.02pts
P/L : +106.02pts (+8.21% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

Hoping to go one step better today with a possible, but unintended, American double...

2.10 Huntingdon :

The Pipe/Scudamore alliance is a potent weapon and in Impulsive American, they've got a promising 3yr old on their hands. This horse only made his UK racecourse debut seven weeks ago (8 runs in France), when running in a soft ground 11.5f handicap at Carlisle where he was well beaten, before following up with a win over 1m4f on faster ground at Chepstow 17 days later.

That's when the switch to hurdling was made and just a fortnight after that Flat win (3 weeks ago), he was 4th of 10 on his first start over timber, with the promise shown that day backed up with a runner-up finish last time out.

Ground speed between the hurdles is assured, he stays the trip and if the Pipe team think he's ready for handicap action, so do I. He gets chunks of weight all round (17lbs WFA allowance) and therefore Impulsive American should be the one to beat here at 3/1 BOG (Betway).

Next best will hopefully be Spa's Dancer, who has a few more miles on the clock, but can still be considered unexposed : let me explain quickly. 51 starts on Flat & A/W including a couple of cracks at landing a Listed event, but just three starts over hurdles. Pulled up on hurdling debut 49 months ago and then third at Ludlow three years ago next week, but obviously kept busy elsewhere between.

This 8yr old then didn't see another hurdle for 35 months before being sent to Warwick three weeks ago, where he finished third once again. I think that running over hurdles more often would bring more out of him and although it's a little bit of guesswork, I think he'll come on for having had that recent outing and Spa's Dancer could well be very good value for his current 4/1 BOG pricetag.

*

5.30 Musselburgh :

The lightly raced filly, American Hustle will be looking to continue her consistent run of form since making her debut less than 4 months ago, having finished 43222 in her five starts to date. She gets a small, but useful 2lbs weight for age allowance, which cancels out a rise imposed from her last run, when beaten by three lengths at Ayr 25 days ago, where she had led until inside the final furlong.

She has seemed to be outpaced late on in recent runs and today she drops back a furlong, which should enable her to see the task out better and go one better, especially having now had the experience of a handicap debut and if you like American Hustle, you can currently back her at 9/4 BOG, but I have a slight preference for...

...Oak Bluffs, who looks decent value at the 5/1 BOG odds being offered by quite a few firms (perhaps I've misread the race?). A winner twice and a runner-up twice from just 6 outings over the last year, this horse has rarely run a bad race of late. He was second at Newcastle at the start of September, when he possibly needed the run after a 7 month absence and then backed that up with a win next/last time out at Ayr 26 days ago.

He's up 4lbs for that win, but the talented rising star, Sammy Jo Bell, hops into the saddle today and deals with most of that rise with her 3lb claim and she'll be hoping to extend her excellent record when riding in Flat handicaps for Richard Fahey, which has seen her win 19 times from 105 races (18.1% SR) for profits of 44.9pts at an ROI of 42.8%.

At odds of 13/2 and shorter over trips of 6f to 9f, the partnership has 13 wins from 31 (41.9% SR) this season, producing profits of 36.7pts (+118.5% ROI), adding another layer of interest to the selection of Oak Bluffs today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Impulsive American / American Hustle @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Betway)
Impulsive American / Oak Bluffs @ 23/1 (3/1 & 5/1 : Betway)
Spa's Dancer / American Hustle @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes & Paddy P)
Spa's Dancer / Oak Bluffs @ 29 (4/1 & 5/1 : BetVictor & Stan James)

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2015

Thames Knight missed out by just over length in a very messy race at Windsor on Monday afternoon, eventually finishing fourth in the scramble late on that saw the first six home all within two lengths of each other.

I thought our pick was overpriced and represented value at 7/1 and despite not winning, that angle was proven correct, as he was returned with an SP of 9/2.

It is, admittedly tricky out there at the moment, but getting 156% of SP will bear fruit in the long run.

North of the Border we go next, for the...

3.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

For Messrs Johnston and Fanning and a 3yr old filly called Nomenklatura, who can be backed at 11/4 BOG for this Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f on good ground.

OK, back to basics to beat this cold spell we've had of late...

Since 2008, Mark Johnston's runners at Musselburgh are...

  • 49/186 (26.3% SR) for 74.5pts (+40.1% ROI) when ridden by Joe Fanning
  • 37/151 (24.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+30.9% ROI) when unrated (OR) or have a rating in the 60's.
  • 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 24.1pts (+40.9% ROI) when turned out 6 to 10 days after their last run
  • 8/32 (25% SR) for 18.2pts (+56.8% ROI) in Class 6 races

Which all points to a good run from Nomenklatura here, as does the fact that she was a winner at a higher grade than this just 8 days ago at Hamilton, when she fairly strung out a field of 11 fellow 3 yr olds. She's upped in weight by 6lbs today, but that is more than covered by her 7lb allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap and her trainer is a dab hand at exploiting this allowance.

Mark Johnston's 3 yr olds in 3yo+ Flat handicaps over 1m4f to 2m (ie where the allowances are greatest!) since 2008 are 84/346 (24.3% SR) for 92.6pts (+26.8% ROI), which make them well worth backing blindly.

A closer analysis of the 346 runners with today's race in mind tells us that they are...

  • 45/183 (24.6% SR) for 61.7pts (+33.7% ROI) over 1m4f
  • 31/114 (27.2% SR) for 35.1pts (+30.8% ROI) under Joe Fanning
  • 33/101 (32.7% SR) for 53.2pts (+52.7% ROI) within 6 to 10 days of their last run
  • 25/70 (35.7% SR) for 19.3pts (+27.5% ROI) who last time out.

When Joe Fanning rides a Mark Johnston 3yo in a 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f, 6 to 10 after its last run, the results are 9 winners from 17 (52.9% SR) and 27.8pts (+163.3% ROI) profit, of which last time out winners are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+193.2% ROI) profit.

I've taken my 11/4 BOG about Nomenklatura from Totesport, but others are matching that price, so you'd be advised to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th September 2015

Friday was a good day for us as we landed a third double in five days with two winners prevailing by a head apiece.

Gutaifan kicked things off but taking control with a furlong to run at Doncaster and was pretty comfortable, despite the margins looking tight and then 45 minutes later at Chester, Powderhorn got out quickly as I'd predicted and made all to win gamely.

Both winners attracted market support to the extent that our 12.5/1 BOG double only paid 9.31/1 at SP, giving us a reminder of the importance of taking the early BOG offerings. We got 34% above SP and that's money we don't want to leave on the table.

Friday's results were as follows:

Gutaifan : WON at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Bear Cheek : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Powderhorn : WON at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Valko : 8th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
669 winning selections from 2393 = 27.96%
212 winning bets in 620 days = 34.19%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1239.50pts
Returns: 1342.69pts
P/L : +103.19pts (+8.33% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Saturday is our last play of the week and I'll bow out with these...

3.25 Chester :

This Is For You makes his handicap debut here on a fairly lenient looking mark of 75 after a comfortable two length victory at Chepstow just over three weeks ago. He had to work to get a lead with a furlong to go, but once he hit the front, he found more and stayed on well, suggesting another 100 yards or so today won't be the reason for any possible defeat.

Since 2010, Andrew Balding's 2 to 5 yr old handicappers here at Chester are 23/79 (29.1% SR) for 55.8pts (70.6% ROI) with David Probert riding 10 winners from 35 (28.6% SR) of them, generating profits of 14.6pts (+41.8% ROI). This Is For You is currently priced at 5/2 BOG and of those 35 rides for David Probert, he's 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 16.7pts (+119.4% ROI) on horses priced at 4/1 and shorter.

I can only assume that Ejaazah is as long as 5/1 BOG, because she's conceding a whole stone to the favourite, but she has won on her only visit to this track when she stayed on well to land a 5f sprint by a couple of lengths, beating a couple of subsequent winners in the process. Her two runs since then have both been in Listed company where she has finished a respectable 2nd and 5th with this representing a major drop in class.

Richard Hannon's flat handicap debutants priced at 11/1 or shorter are 24/119 (20.2% SR) for 40.1pts (+33.7% ROI) and whilst I'm not a big fan of alleged draw bias, the shorter trips here at Chester do tend to favour those drawn low and since 2009 in 2yo handicap contests over 5 to 7 furlongs, stall 1 has won 13 of 33 races (39.4% SR) for profits of 54.5pts (+165.2% ROI) and is profitable irrespective of the number of runners.

*

6.25 Musselburgh :

Adele was a winner at Hamilton last time out 11 days ago after knocking on the door for a while in previous outings. She was doing all her best work in the closing stages, only hitting the front late on to win by half a length. Dhular Dhar was almost 7 lengths behind her that day, but that 13 yr old (yes, 13!) then stepped up in trip to today's course and distance to win here last Friday.

Joe Fanning has ridden 46 winners from 178 (25.8% SR) rides in handicaps for Mark Johnston here at Musselburgh over the last eight seasons, producing 71.8pts profit (+40.4% ROI) and having ridden Adele to victory last time out, has chosen her of the three Johnston runners in this race today. If the form from Hamilton works out and Joe has chosen correctly, then we're looking at a winner at 5/2 BOG.

I'd expect the biggest threat to come from Maxwell, who currently trades at around the 7/2 BOG mark and he comes here in good nick having won three of his five starts this year, only being beaten in a higher grade than today. He's 2 from 3 this year on good to firm ground, 2 from 3 going right handed and has won all three of races of 10 runners or less.

He has won his only effort at this Class 3 level and is Ralph Beckett's only runner at this track today. Regular readers of my "work" (how pretentious does that sound?) will know that I'm a Ralph Beckett fan (mainly because I can make money from him) and his runners throw up plenty of workable microsystems, but one of the simplest is to back horses that are his only runner at a track. Since the start of 2008, this angle has 249 winners from 1384 (18% SR) and 346.1pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 25%

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

This Is For You / Adele @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
This Is For You / Maxwell @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport)
Ejaazah / Adele @ 18.25/1 (9/2 & 5/2 : Betfair Sports & Coral)
Ejaazah / Maxwell @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Hills & Coral)

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th August 2015

We didn't exactly make enough profit to retire yesterday, so I'm back again this morning finally relieved to have broken what seems like a never-ending run of near misses.

Sure, nobody's getting rich off 0.5pt doubles at 8.63/1, but they're a start and they're also far better than the 9/2 we'd have got paid out at SP!

Sleep Easy and Ians Memory were our winners and with Showboating the next home in race 2, there was the small added bonus of an exacta at 5/2.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Sleep Easy : WON at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Storm Check : 4th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Ians Memory : WON at Evs (adv 7/4)
Showboating : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
The exacta paid £3.50 here.

Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2277 = 28.33%
203 winning bets in 590 days = 34.41%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1179.50pts
Returns: 1295.59pts
P/L : +116.09pts (+9.84% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I could now do with a double double from these Friday fancies, which are mainly derived from a stats perspective, although they should go well regardless...

2.00 Musselburgh :

Tholen is trained by Mark Johnston who has a near-20% strike rate at this track in the last four seasons with his 2 yr olds winning 13 of 47 (27.7% SR) for 40.9pts (+86.9% ROI). Those running at Class 5 are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 12.14pts (+86.7% ROI) , whilst the 7f runners are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 9.26pts (+48.7% ROI)

Combined, the Johnston 2yo's are 3/5 (60% SR) at odds of 7/2 and shorter for 2.9pts (+58% ROI) in C5, 7f races and Tholen can be backed at 7/4 BOG.

Poplar Close makes a handicap debut for David O'Meara here today and in the last four seasons, the yard is 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 73.3pts (+78.9% ROI) and in the same time time frame, the team's Musselburgh handciappers priced at 5/1 and shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 19.67pts (46.8% ROI).

The yard is in good nick, having hit 9 winners from 37 in the last week alone and if you think Poplar Close could be number 10, you can get 4/1 BOG on that happening.

*

2.30 Musselburgh :

Like Tholen above, Plagiarism is another 2yo from the Mark Johnston yard, so the reasons above suggest he'll go well here and I should also point out that this 13/8 BOG chance is ridden by Joe Fanning and that's relevant, because...

...since 2008 the combination of Johnston / Fanning / Musselburgh is 45/173 (26% SR) for 74.7pts (+43.2% ROI) with non-handicap races providing 18 winners from 59 (30.5% SR) and 45.3pts (+76.7% ROI) of level stakes goodness, which backs up the claims of Plagiarism here.

Whereas Glenrowan Rose represents Keith Dalgleish whose record is Musselburgh non-handciaps id decent although not outstanding at 9/63 (14.3% SR), but the returned profits of 93.3pts (+148% ROI) are fantastic. His 2 yo's non-hcps are 8/44 (18.2% SR) for 100.8pts (+229.1% ROI), whilst over 5f he is 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 80.3pts (+334.4% ROI).

The Dalgleish 2yo, non-handicappers over 5f at Musselburgh are 4/22 (18.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+321.9% ROI) and if you like Glenrowan Rose, 7/2 BOG is available.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Tholen / Plagiarism @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : Coral & Betfair)
Tholen / Glenrowan Rose @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Poplar Close / Plagiarism @ 12.13/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : Betfair)
Poplar Close / Glenrowan Rose @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st July 2015

Monday's effort petered out a little tamely in the end, after Ataman had seemingly put himself in a position to win. He ranged up alongside the all-time leader Smartie Artie with less than 23 furlongs to run, but never got his head in front.

His challenge fizzled out far to quickly, to the extent that he even lost the runner-up slot just before the line. 3rd at a well backed 9/4 is no disgrace, but it does cost us a point, that I want back ASAP.

So, we're off to Scotland for the...

4.15 Musselburgh :

A Class 4, 5 furlong handicap for 3yr olds and upwards, where I'm backing Mick Appleby's Shipyard at 3/1 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook.

Mick Appleby's record in handicap contests since the start of 2010 makes him a man to follow and backing him blindly can make you a decent amount of money, as his 241 winners from 1703 (14.2% SR) runners have generated level stakes profits of 286.4pts at an ROI of 16.8%, which is excellent without filtering any bets out.

Those who want fewer selections can try any/all of the following possibilities (in decreasing sample size and with this contest in mind)...

  • Class 4/5 races : 150/894 (16.8% SR) for 380.9pts (+42.6% ROI)
  • On turf : 89/692 (12.9% SR) for 327.3pts (+47.3% ROI)
  • Andrew Mullen in the saddle : 96/652 (14.7% SR) for 89.8pts (+13.8% ROI)
  • trips shorter than a mile : 86/556 (15.5% SR) for 148.5pts (+26.7% ROI)

Also, you can combine some of them to really draw down the number of bets you place and just one example is that the Mullen / Appleby / Turf / Class 4&5 handicap combo is worth 23 winners from just 185 runners (12.4% SR) for 67.8pts (+36.7% ROI).

Those figures above make Shipyard a valid contender for a bet on their own, but we should also note that the horse is making his yard debut (you should see TC on your racecards to denote this) after finishing 3rd on his Irish swansong in a decent contest at the Curragh 25 days ago.

Horses coming into the Appleby yard after runs for other trainers are 27/142 (19% SR) for 408.6pts (+287.8% ROI)...
of which, handicappers are 22/109 (20.2% SR) for 212.7pts (+195.1% ROI)...
of which, class 4 & 5 runners are 16/52 (30.8% SR) for 214.9pts (+413.3% ROI)...
of which, Andrew Mullen has 9 winners from 24 (37.5% SR) for 113.2pts (+471.6% ROI).

Shipyard was third last time out behind Dark Alliance who was subsequently only beaten by 3.75 lengths in a far better £46,000 top prize handicap at the Curragh last Saturday, whilst Shipyard's 3rd place finish can also be quantifiedby his beating of Anonymous Lady by a neck that day, after she has since reappeared and won by 3.25 lengths at Navan.

The collateral form from the Curragh looks good, as do the stats. This appears to be a weaker contest than that one 25 days and with the stats to back up the selection, I'm happy to take 3/1 BOG from Betfair Sportsbook for my 1pt bet on Shipyard here.

For a fuller market overview, once all the firms have shown their hands...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 29th June 2015

Gerry the Glover made good headway from the rear of the pack with a well-timed, staying-on run to become the latest Ellison/De Sousa winner at Newcastle, taking full advantage of a double drop in class to score at 15/8. Our other runner, Woofie was 6 lengths back in third place in a well strung out field. And the fact we'd got on the winner at 100/30, meant we'd a good payout coming...

...had Be Perfect not already spoiled the plans 40 minutes earlier. Unbeknown to me when I compiled the blog, the Chester race was being sponsored ay a client of my sister (she's a PR-type thing, don't ask!) and so she was there at the track. She rang me up to ask what would win that race and I suggested there wouldn't be too much between the two I'd selected.

As it was, Rowlestone Lass fared best, beating English Summer by a good 2.5 lengths, but we had to settle for 2nd and 3rd, as Be Perfect made all and couldn't be caught, winning by a length, depriving us of a double at 18.5/1 and my sister/her clients a winner of their own race.

I did, however, suggest a couple of other winners to her from the same card, so she and her friends at least went home happy!

Saturday's results were as follows:

Rowlestone Lass : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
English Summer : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Gerry The Glover : WON at 15/8 (adv 10/3)
Woofie : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
610 winning selections from 2147 = 28.41%
192 winning bets in 556 days = 34.66%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1111.50pts
Returns: 1226.14pts

P/L : +114.64pts (+10.31% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

First picks of the new week are as follows...

3.30 Pontefract:

Sleeping Apache is in good form of late, having won here over course and distance in April and was a runner-up over C&D three weeks ago from a mark just 2lbs higher for that win. Sandwiched between the two Pontefract run was another runner-up finish over 5f at Hamilton.

There was no disgrace in going down to the very progressive Jan Van Hoof here three weeks ago and the third placed horse has also gone on to win since. At 2/1 BOG, Sleeping Apache looks a solid proposition, providing he can get away with conceding 6lbs to...

...Another Royal, who looks dangerous based on last season's form. She finished the 2014 campaign with finishes of 223311 and although she hasn't quite hit those heights just yey, she has been running far better than the bare results suggest. So far this season she has been 5th of 9 (after 173 days off), 3rd of 17 and 4th of 14.

So, she's not quite got there yet, but has beaten plenty of other runners and the sum total of those three defeats is only six lengths. Closer inspection also shows she's been a little unlucky in a couple of those runs, experiencing "traffic issues" in the bigger fields, but with just seven rivals here, Another Royal should find things more manageable at 10/3 BOG.

*

7.15 Musselburgh:

New Colours has been knocking on the door recently with back to back runner-up finishes over today's course and distance, including a 1.75 length defeat to Villoresi two grades higher than today's contest with that winner subsequently finishing a very good fourth (1.75 lengths) in the Cumberland Plate as recently as last Wednesday.

This is clearly an easier race that that defeat and with an easing of conditions down to good ground likely to suit him better, a repeat of how he ran against Villoresi should be more than enough to see New Colours finally win on grass at 5/2 BOG (Betfair SB).

He will, however, have to see off the consistent and in-form Card High to do so. He won back to back handicaps at the end of last season and has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two outings, having won over this trip at Newcastle a month ago.

He was then seen again at Hamilton 18 days ago, when going down by just a length and a quarter dropping back in trip by 1.5 furlongs and getting outsprinted to the line, having been caught inside the final furlong. He did very little wrong that day to be honest, but the trip was just too sharp for him and now stepping back up to 1m4.5f, Card High has every chance at 11/4 BOG (Coral)

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sleeping Apache / New Colours @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfair SB)
Sleeping Apache / Card High @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : Paddy Power)
Another Royal / New Colours @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : BetVictor & SkyBet)
Another Royal / Card High @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor & SkyBet)

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 6th June 2015

Friday started really well for us and almost perfect for me personally. I'd advised Shear Rock as a winner at 11/4 elsewhere and I'd backed Bowie at 13/2 E/W as a saver, expecting a big run from him and with the former beating the latter by just a neck with the nearest challenger a further 6 lengths back, it was the dream start.

Exotic backers were rewarded with a forecast that paid just over 13/2 and for the double, we were able to carry a 5/2 win into leg 2, which is where things went unfortunately awry.

Escrick didn't come on for an earlier run and was well beaten by about 8 lengths, ahead of just one other runner. My Call, on the other hand, gave it a decent shot and ran her own race. She didn't have the final burst needed and could only finish secoind to a resurgent Links Drive Lady, who will have surprised many by winning at 25/1!

Friday's results were as follows:

Shear Rock : WON at 11/10 (adv 5/2)
Bowie : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 13/2)
A £1 forecast paid £7.58 here...
----------------------------------------------------
My Call : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Escrick : u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
592 winning selections from 2074 = 28.55%
187 winning bets in 537 days = 34.89%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1073.50pts
Returns: 1176.92pts

P/L : +103.42pts (+9.63% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last shot of the week now and Saturdays are notoriously tough...

3.05 Doncaster:

Roger Varian has a good record here at Doncaster and will look to Igider to return to winning ways here at 15/8 BOG today. He was a winner on his final run of last season and looked like a horse destined for better things. He reappeared at Hamilton three weeks ago and was pretty soundly beaten. We were advised by Mr Varian that the horse doesn't go well fresh, so we'll expect more today.

It should also be noted that the run at Hamilton was his first after 333 days, his first at today's 1m4f trip and he was up two grades. A drop back in class and the benefit of that outing three weeks ago should help matters today, where Igider will need to be on his game to see off I'm Harry, who in complete contrast returned to action 17 days ago for the first time in over 10 months and won over 1m3.5f by 8 lengths at Lingfield on Good ground (not A/W!).

It was an effortless run that day, no whip required and the margin of victory could have been huge had he been driven/ridden to a finish. He has now finished 111221 in his last six starts and despite a 9lb rise for that hands and heels win, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see I'm Harry win again at 11/4 BOG.

*

3.25 Musselburgh:

Sometimes you spot something that looks a bit unusual on the racecards, and today I've spotted a Sir Michael Stoute runner at Musselburgh in the form of the 7/2 BOG Indelible Ink and with such beasts being as common as an honest FIFA delegate, I had to look closer!

It turns out that despite having had almost 5,500 runners in an illustrious and long career, just five have come to Musselburgh! Altaayil was a runner-up here last October and prior to that, the previous Stoute runner here ran at this very meeting in 2009! That said, he has two winners and two placers from the five, so it's not form keeping him away.

His runners are in good nick (9/25 in the last two weeks) and Indelible Ink was knocking on the door, finishing as runner-up in each of his last two of three runs last season. He looked like he needed the run and a longer trip when reappearing at Sandown 16 days ago after an eight month break and Indelible Ink gets both requests fulfilled here.

The more likely winner for me, though, is Yorkidding at 11/4 BOG. This likeable 3 yr old filly has really come on this season since stepping up in trip and being partnered with Silvestre de Sousa, finishing 211 so far in three runs. Their only defeat was a staying-on 0.75L loss after a 158-day absence, but sahe has stepped up to win at 1m4f and 1m6f since.

She's up 4lbs for that last win, but does drop back 600yds in trip to 1m4f where she won two starts ago. She's 2/3 on good to firm ground and 2/2 going right handed and with conditions set to suit, Yorkidding would be my pick here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Igider / Yorkidding @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Paddy Power & BetVictor)
Igider / Indelible Ink @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : generally)
I'm Harry / Yorkidding @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Hills)
I'm Harry / Indelible Ink @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : Coral)