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Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2013

No back to back winner yesterday, I'm afraid. Omanome got out sharply, headed for the rail and led the race for pretty much the first five furlongs of the 6f contest. He was aggressively ridden by Danny Tudhope and once headed near the furlong pole, was a spent force. He quickly dropped out of contention and finished back in 5th of the seven runners at the same 7/2 price we'd suggested earlier.

Pretty poor stuff on offer today, but we're going to stay in Scotland to take a look at the...

5.30 Musselburgh

Where I'm going to continue along the theme of highlighting course and distance winners. Musselburgh is another of those tracks that readily lends itself to such horses, especially if they were winners last time out. In fact over the last three seasons, 58 former C&D winners have returned to Musselburgh on the back of a win and have run here at odds of 7/1 or under.

In other words, these horses are quite fancied by the market, despite invariably carrying a penalty from their last run. Yet still, 15 (25.9% SR) of those 58 have gone on to secure the follow-up victory, producing level stakes profits of almost 26pts in the process, a return on investments of almost 45% and the record this season alone is 5 winners from 17 for 8.2pts.

Tracy Waggott runs two horses in this race today: Tuibama and our selection Captain Royale, who is bidding to land his third victory in five races.

He comes here on the back of a fairly comfortable win at Catterick last time out and is duly raised 6lbs in the handicap for that effort. That penalty doesn't actually seem as onerous as it might initially sound and I'd still expect him to be able to deal with that and the market will probably agree with me and make him favourite here.

Stablemate Tuibama will also probably figure close to the head of the market in position, if not price, but this horse was well beaten by our selection in that Catterick contest and I'd expect more of the same today.

Captain Royale is no spring chicken, nor is he a stranger to the winners' enclosure: this 8yr old has already won eight times on the turf from a career spanning 56 races to date (he's also had 9 unsuccessful outings on A/W surfaces!) and he has proved very profitable to back, especially this season where his 2 wins (from 12 starts) have come at odds of 12/1 and 25/1 (last time out). Today's jockey Barry McHugh was also on board on both occasions.

Today's minimum trip of 5f is his preferred race length with a record of 6 wins from 27 at this distance and he's 4 from 16 in Class 6 races at this trip too.

It's not a great race today, but I do expect him to follow up that last win at Catterick and notch up a second C&D win here. The bookies seem to agree with me and have installed him as the 7/2 favourite with his nearest rivals priced up at odds of around 7/1 and 15/2.

The 7/2 BOG for Captain Royale is pretty widely available, so you can take your pick of the bookies. I've still got some of Monday's winnings in my Paddy Power account, so that's where my 1pt win bet is going, but as always, I heartily recommend that you...

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Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2013

A disappointing run from Nickels And Dimes last night. She never seemed to settle into the race and looked pretty green at times. That said, she tracked the leaders in the early stages, but had to little to offer when push came to shove around 2f out. Jockey William Buick knew pretty much straight away that she was beaten and sensibly eased her down. and just brought her home in last place.

I've no issues at all about him bringing her home last, it was clear to everyone that she wasn't getting on terms and there's little point in flogging her to maybe gain an extra place. That said, I'll be looking for better in a 5f handicap North of the border today, as we've got one in the...

4.00 Musselburgh

Horses who have previously won over course and distance here at Musselburgh tend to go well on their return to this course. Just blindly backing all previous C&D winners here, priced at 6/1 or under, over the last couple years would have seen you make a 10.8% profit over your stakes, courtesy of a 21.7% strike rate (38 winners from 175).

That alone is a pretty good starting point for a basic microsystem, but for SotD, I like to be able to tweak things a little more in our favour! The above figures, whilst profitable, don't take into account any form of course. If we only consider those of 175 from above who returned to Musselburgh on the back of a win (anywhere!), then our sample size becomes 49 runners in that same period and at a maximum of 6/1.

Those 49 runners represent 28% of the 175 C&D winners returning here, but from that 49 we have 14 winners, almost 37% of the winners from above. This gives us a strike rate of 28.6% (up from 21.7%) and profits of 19.83pts. This ROI of 40.5% is almost four times that of our starting stat.

Today's selected 9-runner race actually has 6 previous C&D winners, but only one comes here on the back of a win last time out: Burning Thread.

Burning Thread was a convincing winner at Bath a week ago as he finally took advantage of a handicap mark that has tumbled over the last year. Last week's victory was actually his first for just over 25 months, since he landed a £25,000 pot here at Musselburgh in June 2011 off a mark of 94. Hos next outing was in the 2011 running of the Wokingham at Ascot off 102 and despite finishing last of the 25 runners that day, he has been in the grip of the handicapper ever since.

He put in some decent efforts last season on occasions and was third here over course and distance in June 2012 off 91. He only seems to run here once per year, but having finished 1st and 3rd on his last two visits, both of which were his best performances in the last two years before last week's win, it's fair to say that he "gets" it here.

A decision was made 2 races ago to put blinkers on him and although he finished 7th of 15 that day at Beverley, he ran well enough to get within 2.5 lengths of the winner and was only just over a length outside the places at 25/1.

The blinkers were reapplied last time at Bath and he pretty much ran away with the race, grabbing the lead near the furlong pole and running on strongly to win by seven lengths going away. He has, of course, been raised 6lb for that effort, but if he runs to the same level today, that penalty won't be enough to stop him.

He's got a great draw in stall 9 today and provided he's up with the pace early on, I can see him staying on strongly at the close once more. He is, admittedly, carrying top weight, but he has run well off much higher than today's 83, so he should be able to give a little weight away here.

The racecard for this contest is here.

Burning Thread seems to save his best for this track, he has the best recent form in the race and he's got the best draw of the nine runners. Therefore I'd expect him to quickly follow-up last week's win. I also think that the market will agree with me and he'll go off as favourite today. That said, I still think the 5/2 BOG widely available isn't too bad a price. I'm on with Paddy Power today, but to see what your bookie is offering, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 31st March 2013

Stat of the Day: 27/03/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st March 2013

No joy for Fraserburgh who, despite a troubled trip, was not nearly good enough, unfortunately.

Today, we'll stay in the Edinburgh 'burbs for the...

2.50 Musselburgh

At this time of year, when considering a horse to bet on the flat, you need to know it's fit. There are two pointers to the fitness of today's pick: firstly, it's been backed already this morning. And secondly, it won first time up last year.

Dream Walker gets the nod today because he's in his right class. Specifically, in Class 6 races, he's been in the frame on four out of five occasions, with a form string of 13229.

His last two runs of last season can probably be forgiven, as he had a lot of racing and may well have been 'over the top'. Fresh looks the time to catch Dream Walker, and trip, ground and class all look fine.

In a competitive looking race, he's a live each way chance, and 9/1 with SkyBet looks well worth taking, especially as you can bet him for free (!!) if you don't already have a SkyBet account. Open one today, and they'll give you a free tenner bet - no card details needed! Click the link below to get started.


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Stat of the Day, 30th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 27/03/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2013

A quick catch up then as there hasn't been a SotD for a couple of days on the site. Thursday 28th saw Niceonefrankie (emailed out due to gremlins on site) anything but; Friday 29th was Good Friday and therefore no racing; which brings us to today, an extremely competitive Easter Saturday. I'm taking a chance on one at a price, in the...

3.35 Musselburgh

A really valuable handicap, worth over £31,000 to the winner, is this. Mark Johnston is on fire at the moment, with five winners and four seconds from just twelve runners in the last week. He's obviously decided he'll support this race, and has four nags entered!

Johnston's record with 3yo handicappers (16/1 or shorter) here at Musselburgh since 2008 is impressive: 16 wins and 19 places from 78 runners, for a profit of 11.48 points.

So, we know he's a man in form, and we know his similar types go well at the track. But... he's got four entered here! What to do? Well, the sensible play is to go with the one with the best profile for the race. Step forward, Fraserburgh.

Named after a town 178 miles north of Musselburgh racecourse, Fraserburgh is likely to be popular with on-course punters. But he's got more form-based claims than that too. Indeed, in seven career starts to date, he's only been out of the frame once. His full form string reads 3272321, and his inevitable victory was by six lengths in a Southwell maiden.

It's a sure thing that this is a much stronger contest, but the step up to a mile looks bang on for a horse which has presumably been a slow maturing type. He's by crack miler, Shamardal, out of the mare which also bore smart two mile hurdler, Dodging Bullets. That's why I assume he's late maturing, given that he was an early foal and started out over five furlongs!

The good to soft ground should be spot on; the trip ought to bring improvement (though this is surmisal on my part); his handy running style will help; and, whilst he's only the third string of the Johnston quartet on market rank, I'm hopeful he can again make the frame at least.

He's 20/1 with William Hill, and they'll lob in a free bet to the same stake as your first tickle if you open an account with them today. Each way the play: a poke at a price.


William Hill Sports

...

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Stat of the Day, 4th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 4/1/13

Stat of the Day: 4/1/13

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2013

Well, we didn't manage to "do the bookies" yesterday, as our selection ran a moderate race at best. He spent most of the race just off the pace behind the leading group and when the pace picked up, he didn't seem to. The end result was an 8th placed finish. The one small consolation that we got was that I called the SP correctly at 8/1, after we'd taken 11/1 earlier on.

We're off to Scotland today for a stamina test. Our selected race is an 11-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle contest over three miles and a half furlong on soft ground. It looks like tough going for the ...

2.40 Musselburgh

Lucinda Russell has got her horses flying at present. She has sent out twelve runners in the last two days and every single one of them has finished in the first five home. From these twelve runners, she has collected four winners' prizes and one additional placed finish so the yard would appear to be in good nick.

Lucinda also has a decent enough record here at Musselburgh, where 43.75% (14 from 32) of her hurdlers have made the frame in handicap contests in the last two years.

Miss Russell is represented by two horses here today: Morning Time seems to have a fair chance at 4/1 in a two-mile chase event scheduled for 1.40pm, but it's the hurdlers that have the better record and her sole hurdler today is Vallani.

Vallani is an 8 yr old chestnut mare who won back to back handicap hurdles at Perth in August. Both were on testing ground ( 1 soft and 1 heavy) and both were over today's 24.5 furlong trip, so she'll be well suited by today's race conditions. She also had a course & distance victory under her belt, which also came on Soft ground. Her career to date shows her having won three from six on Soft/Heavy ground.

She is, however, not the most reliable of animals, but when she's in the mood she will go well. She had seemed out of sorts a little in her last couple of outings, but it has to be said that the yard wasn't in good form then either. Lucinda Russell's string appear to be performing much better at present and if jockey Craig Nichol (claiming a useful 7lbs here) can keep her fairly close to the action, she should stay on at the finish and stake a claim for a place finish.

Her recent unreliability has been reflected in the prices available, where she is currently offered in the 10/1 to 12/1 area. Of the BOG bookmakers, Betfred, BetVictor and Stan James are all showing her at 12/1, so the call today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Vallani at 12/1 BOG. I'm going to use BetVictor today, but you've plenty of choice, so feel free to...

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Stat of the Day: 10th December 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2012

When it's not running for you, it's not running for you. SotD is no more immune to runs of misfortune than anyone else, and yesterday typified its recent luck. 11/2 nominee, Greywell Boy, was backed in to 4/1 favouritism and ran a fine race... but could only finish second. In what is becoming time honoured tradition, the other mentioned horse, George Nympton, obliged - at a good enough 3/1.

But that's the past, and we're concerned now only with the future. A change of chair as Chris takes some time out, and I hop back into the driving seat. And today, I'm driving 'back to the future' for a horse which has featured here before, in the…

1.50 Musselburgh

They race at Musselburgh, and the going is good to soft, which is the first time for a while I've seen the word 'good' in the going description anywhere. Kate Walton is a lady who fares pretty well at the outer Edinburgh track, and her overall figures are five winners from 25 runners in recent seasons.

Those winners were worth a profit of 13 units. But, it must be said, four of that quintet of victories were provided by a single horse, Everaard.

Luckily for us (I hope!), Everaard lines up here, and there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful. Despite recent figures of 7PP877, Everaard looks to be very well suited by today's race conditions.

For instance, this is a three mile half a furlong handicap hurdle, class five. Everaard has won three of his four races here over this distance (the other being a handicap chase over 110 yards less). He's won all of his three hurdle races here in handicaps, and they were in Class 4 twice, and Class 3 once. Today he drops down to the basement, and a Class 5 event.

Everaard must have ground with 'good' in the description, as all of his five career wins (four NH, one flat) have done. Today, the going is good to soft. His form over the course and distance here is 13117. The '3' in that sequence came in this race last year, and he might have been closer than six lengths adrift of the winner had he not bungled the third last.

It's fair to say that Everaard has not been in good form lately, as evidenced by the 7's and P's on his score card. But a return to optimal conditions should see him return to competitiveness, and he's a handy seven pounds lower than his last win, which was off a mark of 107.

Everaard is currently trading at 15/2 with Paddy Power, and that looks fair about a horse with plenty of things in his favour today. He might like it a bit quicker ideally, but he couldn't have asked for any more elements to align for him, and I suggest a brave win only wager (though you may choose to bet each way yourself!). As ever, you can…

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Stat of the Day, 8th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2012

A decent run but no return on investment from Aegean Destiny, who was very well backed in to 8/1 from an early price of 14's. She eventually finished eight lengths back in sixth.

Today we have a classic SotD type in the…

3.00 Musselburgh

Kate Walton is one of those trainers who know how to place a horse to win, and her overall stats with decent priced types are good.

Here at Musselburgh, Mrs Walton is nine from 48, for a profit of 47.75 units.

Some of that profit has been provided by Everaard, a course specialist whose form at the track reads 13111. Three of his four wins were over today's trip of three miles and a half furlong, and he's done all his winning on goodish ground.

His last two wins were in this class - Class 3 - and his last hurdle win was off a mark of 107, so today's perch of 105 should be fine.

Everaard was only beaten fifteen lengths when eighth of twelve last time, and he's a horse whose past form suggests he needs a couple of runs to get him fit. This being his third start of a layoff, then, looks ideal.

He's currently a best priced 12/1 with Ladbrokes, or 11/1 BOG with bet365, and I recommend you wager each way.

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Musselburgh Comes To The Rescue

Musselburgh comes to the rescue for NH fans this Saturday and we’ve got all the key trends, betting & stats for EVERY race at the Scottish track. Read more