Posts

Stat of the Day, 11th April 2019

Wednesday''s pick was...

3.25 Lingfield : Shanghai Grace @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Held up in touch on inside, pushed along when switched left and squeezed through 1f out, soon not clear run on inside and switched right, couldn't recover)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fingerontheswitch @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground worth £7408 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner here two starts ago and wasn't at all disgraced in finishing third of sixteen in a Listed contest last time out some 153 days back.

He is trained by Neil Mulholland, whose runners are 12 from 37 (32.4% SR) for 12.1pts (+32.7% ROI) here at Wetherby since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today...

  • males : 11/30 (36.7%) for 14.7pts (+48.9%)
  • handicaps : 7/21 (33.3%) for 16.4pts (+78.1%)
  • on Good ground : 5/16 (31.25%) for 4.07pts (+25.4%)
  • at odds of 5/6 to 7/2 : 9/13 (69.2%) for 15.4pts (+118.8%)
  • 2nd or 3rd LTO : 5/12 (41.7%) for 9.36pts (+78%)
  • chasers : 6/11 (54.6%) for 13.6pts (+123.7%) all in hcps
  • over trips of 3m and beyond : 5/9 (55.6%) for 11.2pts (+124.2%)
  • ridden by Tom Scudamore : 3/6 (50%) for 1.69pts (+28.2%)

...all pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Fingerontheswitch @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 9.25pm on Wednesday (4.25pm here), although there is an extra quarter point available with Hills. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Took keen hold, led early, prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong op 7/1)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

We're looking at a trainer, jockey and horse who both individually and collectively fare well in today's conditions. Here are some of the specifics:

Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 16% win rate at the track in the last five years (16/100, +19.98), which improves to 18% (13/72, +34.48) when we home in on low grade (Class 5 or lower) handicaps.

The booking of Adam Kirby looks significant. Kirby leads the All Weather Jockeys' Championship at the moment, and has a 22% win rate at the track in the last year, for a profit at SP of 25.26 points.

When pairing up, Mulholland and Kirby are 8 from 22 in the last two years (36%, +22.13); and when pairing up in low grade handicaps that record improves to 6 from 14 (43%, +13.73).

The horse herself is a nine-year-old now, and she's run at Wolverhampton seven times before. While she's only won once, she's hit the frame on five occasions, with a full form string of 1522332.

This is the first time she gets the Kirby treatment and, on her last two runs here, he'd only have to find a length of improvement to convert those narrow course and distance defeats (by a length and a neck) into victory

 ...giving us a rare 1/2 point each way bet on Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Sunday evening (Betbright 6/1, 11/2 general). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Took keen hold, led early, prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong op 7/1)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

We're looking at a trainer, jockey and horse who both individually and collectively fare well in today's conditions. Here are some of the specifics:

Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 16% win rate at the track in the last five years (16/100, +19.98), which improves to 18% (13/72, +34.48) when we home in on low grade (Class 5 or lower) handicaps.

The booking of Adam Kirby looks significant. Kirby leads the All Weather Jockeys' Championship at the moment, and has a 22% win rate at the track in the last year, for a profit at SP of 25.26 points.

When pairing up, Mulholland and Kirby are 8 from 22 in the last two years (36%, +22.13); and when pairing up in low grade handicaps that record improves to 6 from 14 (43%, +13.73).

The horse herself is a nine-year-old now, and she's run at Wolverhampton seven times before. While she's only won once, she's hit the frame on five occasions, with a full form string of 1522332.

This is the first time she gets the Kirby treatment and, on her last two runs here, he'd only have to find a length of improvement to convert those narrow course and distance defeats (by a length and a neck) into victory

 ...giving us a rare 1/2 point each way bet on Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Sunday evening (Betbright 6/1, 11/2 general). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

2.30 Lingfield : Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up and behind on inside, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

French Mix @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m6on Tapeta worth £3619 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old Mare with five top three finishes from her last seven outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer Hannah Welch) including 2 wins from her last 5 runs and she was a winner LTO just 3 days ago by 3 lengths over 1m4f in another Class 5 handicap.

To date, she has 4 wins and 2 places from 16 A/W handicap outings and they include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 at 1m4f to 1m6f
  • 3w, 2pl from 11 for trainer Alex Dunn
  • 2w, 2pl from 8 within a fortnight of her last run
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 5
  • 3 wins from 6 in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 1wm 1pl from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1w, 1pl from 3 under Hannah Welch

She's by Dalakhani, whose offspring are 9/51 (17.7% SR) for 127.8pts (+250.6% ROI) in Tapeta handicaps since the start of 2016 after not running on Tapeta LTO and these include...

  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 5.3pts (+15.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/29 (32.1%) for 150.8pts (+538.6%) from August to January inclusive
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 129.8pts (+540.6%) over trips of 1m4f and beyond
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 27.3pts (+130.1%) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 142.4pts (+791%) from October to January
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 141.7pts (+833.6%) within 15 days of their last run

And trainer Alex Dunn (who admittedly is probably better known to you for training class 4/5 handicap jumpers) is 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+214.8% ROI) since the start of 2018 with her A/W runners turned back out within 25 days of a top 3 finish LTO and these include...

  • in handicaps : 9/24 (37.5%) for 48.9pts (+203.7%)
  • 4-7 yr olds : 10/22 (45.5%) for 59.9pts (+272.3%)
  • not dropping in class : 10/20 (50%) for 61.9pts (+309.5%)
  • same class as LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.1pts (+287.5%)
  • over 1m4f to 2m : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.7%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+282.8%)
  • LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.2pts (+180%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 27.7pts (+395%)
  • in January : 4/6 (66.6%) for 22.5pts (+375.3%)
  • less than 5 days rest : 2/2 (100%) for 5.8pts (+290%)
  • and over 1m6f : 1/2 950%) for 9.96pts (+498%)

...whilst 4-7 yr old handicappers at the same class as LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 38.14pts (+346.7% ROI)...

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on French Mix @ 11/4 BOG as was available from at least 10 firms at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

1.00 Market Rasen : One of Us @ 7/2 BOG non-runner Withdrawn shortly before the race, due to unfavourable going....

Next up is Thursday's...

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m3f on Fibresand worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over course and distance 27 days ago. Not only was that his A/W debut (and ridden by today's jockey, Fran Berry, for the first time), he completely blew the start giving his rivals plenty of lengths, yet still came from last to first to win. A better start now today should more than compensate for a 6lb rise in weight.

Trainer Neil Mulholland's handicappers with a prior course and distance win who also won last time out are 1034 (29.4% SR) for 4.073pts (+13.9% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • males : 10/29 (34.5%) for 9.73pts (+33.5%)
  • C&D winners LTO : 7/25 (28%) for 5.65pts (+22.6%)
  • at 11/8 to 5/1 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 15.08pts (+68.6%)
  • 5 yr olds : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.73pts (+30.3%)
  • over 1m3f : 1/2 (50%) for 0.35pts (+17.5%)

PLUS...since the start of 2016 here on the A/W at Southwell, males aged 5 to 8 yrs old who had the top OR in their race have won 19 of 58 (32.8% SR) for 149.6pts (+257.9% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6 over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f, from which...

  • handicappers : 15/48 (31.25%) for 149.2pts (+310.9%)
  • those placed 1st or 2nd LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 57.91pts (+386.1%)
  • over 1m3f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.69pts (+44.6%)
  • in January : 5/12 (41.7%) for 32.1pts (+267.4%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 3.23pts (+35.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2017

Monday's Result :

4.00 Kempton : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Chased leaders, outpaced before 2 out, 4th and well held when awkward last.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £6,963 to the winner.

And an 8 yr old gelding who finished the last campaign in fine form with 2 wins and 2 places from his last five starts (14313). He's been off track for 8 months, as have many November runners and with regards to his stamina today, wins at 2m4.5f & 2m5.5f allied to a record of 2 wins and 2 places from five on Soft should help dispel any fears about staying.

His trainer, Neil Mulholland, already has 2 wins and 2 places from five runners at this venue this year (P3113), whilst jockey Tom Scudamore is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 16.9pts (+30.7% ROI) here since 2010, broken down as follows...

  • on males : 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.1pts (+50.2%)
  • on 6 to 10 yr olds : 10/34 (29.4%) for 30.4pts (+89.3%)
  • on ground worse than good to soft : 9/31 (29%) for 14.3pts (+46.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/31 (25.8%) for 22.9pts (+73.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.8pts (+63.9%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 22.8pts (+78.6%)
  • over fences : 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+165%)
  • at 2m3.5f/2m4f : 4/16 (25%) for 7.38pts (+46.1%)
  • and on horses returning from a layoff of over 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.73pts (+108.1%)

There's also the possibility that Arden Denis will go off as favourite and whilst blindly backing favs is a shortcut to the poor house, it's worth noting that this year, Tom Scudamore is 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 13pts (+41.9% ROI) on chase favourites, with handicappers winning 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 13pts (+48%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2016

Monday's Result :

6.55 Chelmsford : Brick Lane @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, beten by less than 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

9.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mrs Burbidge at 3/1 BOG

Why?

It's A/W action, a 1m4f, Class 7 handicap, Liam Keniry rides for Neil Mulholland, sounds almost like perfect conditions for our 6 year old today, who incidentally is a former course and distance winner under today's jockey.

But our first port of call is trainer Neil Mulholland for his record over the last few years on the A/W will be the basecamp to launch our stat attack from....

Neil Mulholland / All-Weather / 2013-16 / ALL runners backed blindly = 36/156 (23.1% SR) for 93.8pts (+60.1% ROI) = phenomenal!

And now, as usual, we'll break those 156 runners down to see how they fit into today's race conditions...

  • 3-7 yr olds are 34/136 (25%) for 105.8pts (+77.8%)
  • over 8.5f to 16.5f : 33/122 (27.1%) for 111.4pts (+91.3%)
  • handicaps : 29/115 (25.2%) for 102.1pts (+88.8%)
  • ridden by Liam Keniry : 28/105 (26.7%) for 106.3pts (+101.3%)
  • hcps/Keniry : 23/81 (28.4%) for 115.7pts (+142.8%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 10/45 (22.2%) for 54pts (+120%)
  • Keniry/Wolverhampton : 8/31 (25.8%) for 57.7pts (+186.3%)
  • Keniry /hcp/Wolves : 6/24 (25%) for 58.4pts (+243.5%)
  • And at Class 7 : 3/10 (30%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%)

All of which looks ideal for our bet today, but I know some of you like me to compound the findings, so here goes!

Neil Mulholland / 3-7 yr olds / 8.5f to 16.5f / AW hcps / Liam Keniry = 21/62 (33.9% SR) for 128.4pts (+207% ROI), of which...

  • Wolverhampton : 6/19 (31.6%) for 63.43pts (+333.8%)
  • Class 7 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.72pts (+245.3%)
  • and Wolverhampton Class 7 = 2/4 (50%) for 16.72pts at an impressive return of 418%!

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Mrs Burbidge at 3/1 BOG, from either BetVictor, Betfred, Ladbrokes or Totesport, who led the way at 11.40pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Wolverhampton.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.20 Newbury : Alizoom @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Took keen hold, held up in rear, headway 2f out, soon squeezed through chasing leading pair over 1f out, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

6.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossetti at 11/4 BOG

Why?

(i) The trainer...

Neil Mulholland is 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 197.8pts (+482.5% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013 (the high profits indicative of the difference between Betfair SP and ISP!), and of those 41 runners...

  • males are 6/31 (19.4%) for 190.7pts (+615.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 194.3pts (+777.2%)
  • at this 2m 0.5f trip : 6/19 (31.6%) for 217.4pts (+124.2%)
  • and handicap hurdlers over today's 2m 0.5f trip are 3/5 (60% SR) for 6.21pts (+124.2%)

(ii) The jockey...

Noel Fehily also has a decent record here at this venue and since 2009, his figures show that he has achieved the following...

  • 10/56 (17.9%) for 22.5pts (+40.1%) in handicaps
  • 11/52 (21.2%) for 12.6pts (+24.2%) over hurdles
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 24.8pts (+95.4%) in handicap hurdles
  • 6/18  (33.3%) for 32.8pts (+182.2%) in hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.4pts (+176.2%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.4pts (+237.6%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f, including the success of Rossetti last time out.

(iii) And the horse?

Three wins from 19 in a reasonable but not earth shattering Flat career, before a break of almost two years, a change of yard and a reappearance three months ago as a hurdler.

A runner-up finish on his hurdling debut at Southwell has been followed by to more efforts to date, both here at Stratford, both over this trip and both were successful, initially at Class 4 and then a facile 11 lengths victory at Class 3 last time out, 27 days ago, when he really could have won by any margin

Of interest from that last win is the fact that the well beaten runner-up, only went down by half a length in a Class 2 race at Perth on Saturday off a mark of 125, which suggests that 134 might not be beyond our boy today.

All three of his NH runs have been in the hood he sports again today and Noel Fehily (1/1 on the horse) retains the ride from last time.

AND... since 2012, 5 to 9 yr old male handicap hurdlers with at least one prior course and distance win to their name and who were also winners LTO are 158 from 671 (23.6% SR) for 160.8pts (+24% ROI), including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 91/375 (24.3%) for 181pts (+48.3%)
  • those who won by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 76/261 (29.1%) for 78.4pts (+30%)
  • Class 3 runners are 43/153 (28.1%) for 167.9pts (+109.7%)
  • and Class 3 runners who won by 3 to 15 lengths last time out, 11 to 30 days ago are 12 from 38 (31.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+65.6% ROI)

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Rossetti at 11/4 BOG, from any of the half dozen or so firms all quoting that price at 7.35pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Stratford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 11th May 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.10 Wincanton: Thundering Home @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased leaders, jumped left 2nd, not much room next, jumped left and every chance 2 out, no impression on winner last, stayed on same pace).

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Marshgate Lane at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

Dual-code trainer Neil Mulholland's team has been short of winners in recent weeks (0/21 in the last 17 days), but had two winners and a runner-up from three runners on Tuesday, prior to the 7.35 at Southwell, so it would appear that he's coming into some form and on the A/W, he's always worth a second glance.

And that's because his A/W record since the start of 2013 reads 33 winners from 145 with the decent 22.8% strike rate yielding healthy level stakes profits of 94.9pts at an ROI of 65.5%. And today's race parameters make Marshgate Lane of particular interest, because those 145 runners are...

  • in fields of 6-13 : 29/118 (24.6% SR) for 111.9pts (+94.9% ROI)
  • 5-7 yr olds : 26/102 (25.5% SR) for 91.4pts (+89.6% ROI)
  • ridden by Liam Keniry : 25/95 (26.3% SR) for 106.5pts (+112.1% ROI)
  • 8.5 to 12 furlongs : 21/88 (23.9% SR) for 87.8pts (+99.7% ROI)
  • Class 6 : 22/87 (25.3% SR) for 74.2pts (+85.3% ROI)
  • males : 24/86 (27.9% SR) for 52.7pts (+61.2% ROI)
  • at 2/1 to 9/1 : 20/64 (31.25% SR) for 51.5pts (+80.5% ROI)
  • and 16-45 days since last seen : 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 78pts (+123.8% ROI)

And of course, Marshgate Lane fits all of the above perfectly and comes here with a decent 3 from 8 record on A/W of his own. He's a former dual Class 2 winner, including one over this course and distance and although he's topweight here, were this a handicap he'd be quite well in.

Of his 3 from 8 record on the A/W, he's 3/7 going left handed, 3 from 6 after breaks of 7 to 25 days and 3 from 5 at trips of 9.5 to 11 furlongs.

He's also 2 from 4 when sent off below 4/1, 2 from 3 in fields of less than 10 runners and he 's 1 from 2 for both Neil Mulholland and Liam Keniry.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Marshgate Lane at 3/1 BOG, a price available with over half a dozen firms at 6.35pm, but to see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.15 Hexham : Cheat The Cheater @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 5/1 (In touch, pushed along before 6th, led before 9th, pushed along before 5 out, ridden after 2 out, soon weakened)

Friday's runner goes in the...

6.10 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mrs Burbidge @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old mare has finished 11133 in her last five level ground races with he last of those three wins coming on her only visit to Wolverhampton, where she scored over this track and trip. Since then she has had two creditable third placed finishes at Kempton at a higher grade than this, but now drops back into Class 7 company, which could prove decisive.

She's trained by Neil Mulholland, who is carving out somewhat of a reputation for winning A/W races and since the start of 2013, his record on thos sphere stands at 31/135 (23% SR) for 97.6pts (+72.3% ROI). When a trainer is so profitable to follow blindly, there are always an abundance of angles you could take, I'm going to give you just 10 (relevant) ones today!

So, from those 135 runners...

  • those racing beyond a mile are 30/121 (24.8% SR) for 109pts (+90.1% ROI)
  • those who raced in the last 4 to 75 days are 25/106 (23.6% SR) for 87.6pts (+82.6% ROI)
  • handicappers are 27/103 (26.2% SR) for 106.1pts (+103% ROI)
  • those ridden by Liam Keniry are 23/86 (26.7% SR) for 108.1pts (+125.8% ROI)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 9/1 are 18/58 (31% SR) for 50.2pts (+86.6% ROI)
  • female runners are 9/55 (16.4% SR) for 46.3pts (+84.2% ROI)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 9/36 (25% SR) for 61pts (+169.6% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 34.5pts (+123.2% ROI)
  • on tapeta : 5/20 (25% SR) for 24.7pts (+123.5% ROI)
  • at Class 7 : 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 15pts (+166.1% ROI)

In addition to the above, the Keniry / Mulholland / Wolverhampton angle is good for 7 winners from 23 (30.4% SR) for 63.8pts profit at an ROI of 277.2% with handicappers winning 6 of 19 (31.6% SR) for 63.4pts (+333.8% ROI), from which they are 2/3 for 17.7pts in Class 7 handicaps.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Mrs Burbidge at 11/2 BOG with Hills who were the standout/only BOG price on offer at 5.50pm! To get a fuller picture of the market once formed, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2016

Monday's Result :

1.40 Southwell : Westwood Hoe @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Led 1f, remained prominent, every chance over 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

12.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kristal Hart @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare is a former course and distance winner with three wins from nine races over today's 10f trip, has won three times from seven under today's jockey Liam Keniry and hails from the in-form yard of Neil Mulholland, who in the last eight weeks is 18/103 (17.5% SR) for 23pts (+22.4% ROI) profit.

On the All-Weather in that time frame, he has 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR) for 49.6pts (+381.9% ROI) with a 6 from 11 (54.6% SR) record at Class 6 generating 36.4pts at an ROI of 330.9%, whilst his A/W handicappers are 6 from 10 for 38.1pts (+380.7% ROI). And of the 13 runners, Liam Keniry has 5 wins from 7 (71.4% SR) for 38pts (+542.7% ROI)

Neil Mulholland is one of a rare selection of trainers who are profitable to follow in two codes, namely NH and A/W and if you backed all of his runners over the last three years from both codes, you'd have backed 158 winners from 1021 runners at a strike rate of 15.5% and a £10 wager on each of them would have netted you a cool £2808.70 at an ROI of 27.5%.

Of those 1021 runners, those running on the A/W are 26/111 (23.4% SR) for 103.4pts (+93.1% ROI) which (with today's contest firmly in mind) can be further analysed as follows...

  • handicappers are 22/80 (27.5% SR) for 110.8pts (+138.6% ROI)
  • those running 4 to 45 days since their last outing are 21/80 (26.3% SR) for 98.8pts (+123.5% ROI)
  • Class 6/7 runners are 19/70 (27.1% SR) for 93.3pts (+133.2% ROI)
  • those with a rating of 45 to 68 are 19/68 (27.9% SR) for 117.1pts (+172.1% ROI)
  • those ridden by Liam Keniry are 18/65 (27.7% SR) for 110.9pts (+170.6% ROI)
  • over distances of 8.5f to 12f : 16/64 (25% SR) for 90pts (+140.6% ROI)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5% SR) for 67.4pts (+168.4% ROI)

And a slightly broader micro-system based on the above categories is: 3 to 8 yrs old in Class 5/6 handicaps over 8.5f to 16.5f on the A/W off marks of 45 to 68 within 7 weeks of their last run. Such horses are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 115.7pts (+373.4% ROI) over the last three years with Liam Keniry riding 11 winners from 20 (55% SR) for 122.1pts at an ROI of some 610.5%!

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.40pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Kristal Hart and that's at 7/2 BOG with any one of a half dozen or so firms all quoting the same price, but for your preferred bookies' offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2015

Tuesday's Result :

3.00 Kelso : What A Dream @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced before 3 out, rallied next, no extra approaching last)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kristal Hart @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare is a former course and distance winner with three wins from nine races over today's 10f trip, has won three times from seven under today's jockey Liam Keniry and hails from the in-form yard of Neil Mulholland, who in the last seven weeks is 17/94 (18.1% SR) for 28.2pts (+30% ROI) profit.

On the All-Weather in that time frame, he has 7 winners from 11 (63.6% SR) for 47.8pts (+434.6% ROI) with a 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) record at Class 6 generating 34.6pts at an ROI of 384%, whilst his A/W handicappers are also 5 from 9, but this time for 35.2pts (+391.4% ROI). And of the 11 runners, Liam Keniry has 5 wins from 6 983.3% SR) for 39pts (+649.8% ROI)

Neil Mulholland is one of a rare selection of trainers who are profitable to follow in two codes, namely NH and A/W and if you backed all of his runners over the last three years from both codes, you'd have backed 154 winners from 969 runners at a strike rate of 15.9% and a £10 wager on each of them would have netted you a cool £2987 at an ROI of 30.8%.

Of those 969 runners, those running on the A/W are 25/109 (22.9% SR) for 101.5pts (+93.1% ROI) which (with today's contest firmly in mind) can be further analysed as follows...

  • those running within 7 weeks of their last outing are 21/80 (26.3% SR) for 98.8pts (+123.5% ROI)
  • handicappers are 21/79 (26.6% SR) for 108pts (+136.7% ROI)
  • Class 6/7 runners are 18/68 (26.5% SR) for 91.4pts (+134.5% ROI)
  • those with a rating of 45 to 68 are 18/66 (27.3% SR) for 115.2pts (+174.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Liam Keniry are 18/64 (28.1% SR) for 111.9pts (+174.8% ROI)
  • over distances of 8.5f to 12f : 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 88.1pts (+142.2% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 37.1pts (+161.2% ROI)

And a slightly broader micro-system based on the above categories is: 3 to 8 yrs old in Class 5/6 handicaps over 8.5f to 16.5f on the A/W off marks of 45 to 68 within 7 weeks of their last run. Such horses are 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 114.7pts (+358.6% ROI) over the last three years with Liam Keniry riding 11 winners from 21 (52.4% SR) for 121.1pts at an ROI of some 576.4%

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 12.10 am is...

A 1pt win bet on Kristal Hart and that's at 9/2 BOG with Hills, whilst the same price is on offer at Betfred, Ladbrokes & Totesport, but none of those three go BOG until morning, so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Six Trainers and the Cheltenham Open Meeting

It's the first big meeting of the National Hunt season, hosted... at Cheltenham, where else?

Headlined by the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, the Open meeting runs over three days and offers trainers the chance to get some match practice in way ahead of the Festival next March. But which handlers have their team ready to go here, and which may be hanging fire for bigger battles down the line?

Looking at the handicaps at this meeting since 2010 - five years' worth of data - reveals some interesting performers... and under-performers. Let's start with those who command a second glance.

**

3 Open Meeting Trainers to Follow

 

David Pipe

David Pipe doesn't seem that much like his old man, Martin, who revolutionized the game a generation ago when he introduced interval training. He's more affable, more owner-focussed and, according to the record at least, less obsessed by winners. But not at Cheltenham and not in November.

Pipe Senior loved this meeting, and David is a chip off the old block in that regard at the very least. Indeed, since 2010, he's saddled ten handicap winners, from 52 runners, for a profit of 67.5 points at starting price. Moreover, he's peppered the target in that time, with 23 of his 52 runners making the frame.

One point to note is that the group included 40/1 hurdle winner, Home Run, which does rather skew the figures. Nevertheless, the overall profile demands focus.

Our Dave kicks the meeting off with La Vaticane, the favourite in the opening handicap chase, before saddling top weight, Baraka De Thaix (3rd in the G2 Triumph Hurdle Trial on this card a year ago) in the novices' handicap hurdle at 3.25, and latterly legging up the excellent value David Noonan in the amateurs' handicap chase that closes the card.

Noonan will be riding The Geegeez Geegee on Monday all other things being equal, and he's one of the best amateurs around.

Entries for later in the week are yet to be confirmed at this stage, so keep 'em peeled - a comment that applies to all entries in these lists if you're sufficiently moved to track their progress.

Philip Hobbs

Just me? Philips Hobbs and Wallace...

Just me? Philips Hobbs and Wallace...

Hobbs, the Minehead Maestro, has been in scintillating form in the early weeks of the season. In fact, he's been performing at a 25% clip over the past six months, which is phenomenal.

At this particular meeting, the perma-titfered Wallace lookalike has bagged a fairly unspectacular four handicap winners from 39 runners (10%), but has added another six placed horses to that tally (25%).

Your first 30 days for just £1

In profitability terms, Hobbsy (as he's almost certainly known to nobody) has snaffled 15 points at SP and something closer to 40 at Betfair SP, courtesy of three nicely priced winners in the last two years.

Friday sees Allthekingshorses test the oppo for stable mate, Balthazar King, in the Cross Country Handicap Chase; Ink Master attempt to harness the power of the O-pen (certainly not the power of the pun after that crowbarred effort!) in the novices' handicap hurdle; and Return Spring bid for a return to the winners' enclosure at a meeting where he scored two years ago.

Neil Mulholland

Significantly lower profile than the first pair, Mulholland has had an affinity with Cheltenham since his Midnight Chase recorded a superb five wins at the track. Just five handicap starters since 2010 at this meeting have yielded form figures of 11002 and a profit of 12 units at SP.

He's represented by Minella Present, the type of progressive novice that does well here, in the opener; and may run Fingerontheswitch in the conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle on Sunday.

**

3 Open Meeting Trainers to Beware

 

Venetia Williams

The folly of nominating trainers with poor records off small sample sizes is franked repeatedly, so please don't go laying this trio for the mortgage. However, each has a far better record at the Festival in March than the Open Meeting in November, and that may be more than mere coincidence.

Venetia is in great form just now, with six winners in the last week. But her record in handicaps at this particular meeting is a lamentable zero from thirty. Or, as they say in the States, "o'fer" (as in O, or 0 more correctly, for x, where x is the number of losers!).

Worse still, La Williams has had just one horse from that score and ten hit the board, for a place lay profit of 25.05 units, according to horseracebase.com

8/1 chance, The Clock Leary, kicks V's 'cap team off in the opener, and she also saddles bottom weight, Eco Warrior, in the novices' handicap hurdle. Further possibles through the weekend include Rigadin de Beauchene and Bennys Mist on Saturday. Good luck if you like any of these - you may need it.

Jonjo O'Neill

Everyone knows about Jackdaws Jonjo's record at the Festival. But maybe not everyone knows how limited his success has been at the November gathering. He has actually had a pair of winners, which is two more than VW. But they've come at a cost of 26 losers, 24 of which were unplaced.

That equates to a place lay profit of 14.22 if Horseracebase.com's calculations are to be believed.

JP's trusted lieutenant is as wily as they come despite a demeanour of innocence presumably acquired from his little known convent days (not really), and there is usually another day for most of his beaten runners, such is the trainer's talent.

He won't trouble us during the first of the three sessions, but may have any of Upswing, Johns Spirit, Milan Bound, Fort Worth and Hedley Lamarr entered on Saturday; and Mad Jack Mytton and Don Padeja on Sunday.

Alan King

Alan King is another big gun who has hardly had the best of it in recent times at this particular fixture. Like Jonjo, he's managed to win two handicap races but, like Jonjo, they have come at the cost of fairly hefty collateral damage. Like Jonjo, he's managed but two further placed runners, this time from 26 saddled 'cappers since 2010.

The place lay kitty swelled by a satisfying 11.33 for those clairvoyant enough to envisage this half a decade ago. For the rest of us, there is a heavy note of caution in those data if tempted to side with a King runner, regardless of how things pan out this time around.

The Duke's apprentice (David Nicholson was his guv'nor when he was a mere best boy) has nothing for Chelters on day one, but a raft of possibles over the weekend, including Sego Success, Annacotty and Turn Over Sivola. Tread on eggshells. Eggshells I say...

**

So there you have it. A thousand words of trainer quack stats. Miniscule sample sizes mean the scope for looking daft seeps out of every one of the sextet. And yet it will come as no surprise whatsoever if the former group persistently trouble the judge, while the latter group trouble what's known affectionately in cycling as the broom wagon.

It's a deeply competitive three day affair, so good luck to all however you play. The season starts here!

Matt

p.s. If you're having a cut at the placepot there this afternoon, Mal Boyle's placepot pointers will surely assist...

p.p.s. I've just heard from the chaps at Cleeve Racing that they're offering a special discount for new subscribers this weekend. Cleeve has an unbroken six year record of National Hunt profit, and are already well in front this fledgling season (+£460 to £20 level stakes)

Use the below codes on the checkout page (where it says 'Have a coupon?') to claim your discount:

Full season membership - cleeve£40 (£199 reduced to £159)
One month trial - cleeve£15 (£40 to £25)

Here's the registration link - do take a look.

The Best Performing Trainers of 2014

"Oh God, I'm Geegeez Trainer of the Year..."

"Oh God, I'm Geegeez Trainer of the Year..."

Following on from yesterday's 'Best Jockeys of 2014' post, this article takes a similar squint at the training ranks, and asks, "Who were the best trainers of the last twelve months?"

As with the jockeys, there are as many means of measuring 'best' as there are people with an opinion and so, to keep things consistent, I've used the same criteria for handlers as I did for the riders. That is, I looked at those trainers who saddled 75 or more runners in the first three in the betting in 2014, and their performance specifically with that group of runners.

Highest Win Rate Trainers

Some punters like winners more than profit. The general folly of that approach is exemplified in the table below, where the trainer with the joint highest winning percentage of all - Willie Mullins - has proven expensive to follow again in the past twelve months.

Here's the top ten in full:

Trainer Bets Wins Win Strike SP P/L
Mulholland, N P
118 44 37% 31.26
Mullins, W P 505 188 37% -56.72
Greatrex, W J 152 55 36% 32.21
Newland, Dr R D P 106 38 36% -8.62
Ferguson, J P 146 51 35% 1.52
King, N B 85 29 34% 18.92
Richards, N G 105 35 33% 31.75
Walker, Ed 101 32 32% 12.88
Fry, Harry 109 35 32% 8.12
Bailey, K C 149 48 32% 28.78
OBrien, A P 390 121 31% -55.46

**

It is expected of the likes of Mullins and Nicky Henderson that they will score with a large number of their fancied runners, and they don't disappoint on that score. However, Henderson's near par profit/loss figure is impressive for such a high profile trainer.

Harry Fry is another in the National Hunt ranks whose horses are starting to be over-bet on a regular basis, with the value projected to have gone by the end of the current season. But elsewhere in the top ten strike rates are trainers who continue to operate under the radar - to some degree at least - including Kim Bailey, Warren Greatrex and Neil Mulholland.

Of that trio, the only one for whom the longer term prognosis, from a wagering angle, could be favourable is Greatrex. The Lambourn conditioner has beaten parity in each of the past two calendar years, a sequence which aligns with his scaling up of operations. As touched on in yesterday's post, Greatrex has linked up with Gavin Sheehan to their mutual benefit, and I'd expect them to remain a force to be reckoned with in 2015.

What is also interesting to note is that just one flat trainer made the composite top ten. Ed Walker is a fairly new trainer, having set out in 2010, and he's made a profit in the context of this study every year except 2013. The caveat - and it's a significant one - is that the losses in 2013 were substantial.

That may have been a case of scaling up too quickly, or there might have been a bug in the yard. Or something else. Whatever the reason, it is clear that the stable notably under-performed in 2013, and caution is therefore advised in terms of a 'back all fancied runners' strategy with the yard.

The eagle-eyed amongst you will have noticed that the table is actually a top eleven. This is because I wanted to include Aidan O'Brien, whose strike rate was the eleventh highest in 2014, and who was - like Mullins - a high profile trainer to be no friend of blind 'top of the market' backers. That said, merely backing O'Brien-trained favourites in Britain and Ireland in 2014 would have yielded a small SP profit, and a 49% win rate, which is quite remarkable.

[Before you go thinking that's the simplest betting system in the world, note that O'Brien's favourites had made a loss at SP in each of the previous nine years. The game just isn't as simple as that, mercifully!]

Most Profitable Trainers of 2014

As with the jockey piece, the 'cart before horse' approach of looking at the profit column is fraught with danger, and caution is advised before wading in to fancied runners from the below stables. Nevertheless, some of these guys do deserve much closer scrutiny.

Trainer Bets Wins Win Strike SP P/L
Swinbank, G A
165 50 30% 37.06
Simcock, D M 210 60 29% 33.6
Greatrex, W J 152 55 36% 32.21
Richards, N G 105 35 33% 31.75
Mulholland, N P 118 44 37% 31.26
Bailey, K C 149 48 32% 28.78
OMeara, D 363 88 24% 28.69
Wall, C F 104 30 29% 22.93
Suroor, Saeed Bin 287 85 30% 22.04
Harris, S A 90 23 26% 20.83
King, N B 85 29 34% 18.92

**

Messrs. Greatrex, Bailey and Mulholland again make the list, and there's nothing to add in relation to their future prospects than that which I've written already.

However, top of the pile in 2014 from a ledger perspective was Alan Swinbank. Swinbank is known for getting his horses hard fit, and his record supports that reputation. As well as a 30% win rate across all disciplines with those sent off in the top three in the betting, Swinbank was able to harvest a 37.06 unit SP profit (22.46% ROI): great news for his owners.

And that was no flash in the pan either, as the Melsonby handler has made a profit under such conditions in seven of the last ten years. Again, note however that the three losing years would have incurred material losses; and, three of the winning years recorded just 3.4 units of gravy or less.

Still, there is plenty of scope for the keen student to investigate Swinbank's modus operandi in more detail, and it may feature in a future piece on geegeez.

David Simcock laid claim to the most profitable trainer on the flat (in the context of this study), and he was backing up a profit under similar conditions in 2013. Simcock enjoyed an equivalent pair of profitable years in 2007 and 2008, but in between were sandwiched four unsavoury years of losses against these criteria. As with others, a selective approach to Simcock's fancied runners should keep players close to level at worst.

Nicky Richards is also worthy of comment. 2014 was his first year of SP profit in this context since 2005. But that tells only half the story, as Richards has made a surplus at Betfair SP in nine of the past twelve years, under the same conditions! I don't expect him to reach the dizzy heights of 2014 this year, but he too should pay his way to selective support.

The last word in this space goes to Chris Wall, a trainer whose star has been waxing once more for the past four years. He's been profitable to follow in each of those seasons in the context of this study, and his win strike rate has crept up each time too, even against a growing number of runners. Wall does most of his damage in handicaps, so keep an eye out for him.

Geegeez Top Trainer of 2014

In truth, there was no real standout performer in the training ranks in 2014, and my personal preferences are not well catered for by this fairly basic mainstream analysis of form.

That said, Warren Greatrex deserves huge credit for his performance in improving his strike rate and profitability considerably since 2012 at the same time as markedly increasing the number of qualifying bets (i.e. having a lot more fancied runners).

His symbiotic relationship with Gavin Sheehan, though still in its relative infancy, looks sure to continue to yield rewards for those that keep the partnership in mind; and 2015 can be another year of profit for a number of the other handlers in the table above.

I'd be most hopeful that the likes of Chris Wall, Alan Swinbank, and to a lesser degree, Neil King and the emerging talent of Shaun Harris, will continue to keep punters on the right side of the bottom line.

Keep them in mind when framing your wagers in 2015. And good luck!

Matt

Sunday Supplement: “Why the impossible is never impossible in racing”

Tony Stafford's Sunday Supplement

Tony Stafford

Sunday supplement

By Tony Stafford

Small fields for jump races have been the talking point in the racing press these past few weeks. It seems the bookie chaps don’t like them, but several contests of that variety spiced yesterday’s pre-Christmas card at Ascot and it seemed the punters minded not a jot.

Analysts of racing’s well-being would be best served by ignoring the Ascot model. Those purists (in other words trainers in middle-age inhabiting a smallish town on the borders of Suffolk and Cambridgeshire) still seem shocked that the Champion Stakes has been frog-marched 100 miles (Google says 99.9!) south-westerly to the Royal racecourse.

But the look almost of disbelief on the face of Nick Smith, Ascot’s unstinting pursuer of top overseas horses to run in the major Flat races run there through the year, as he tried to negotiate the throngs of humanity up on the fourth floor yesterday, spoke volumes.

I’ve referred at least once this year to Ascot’s appeal that transcends the racing. Why would otherwise sane people pay £30 a head to go into the Premier Enclosure, for that’s what you need to get past the men at the foot of the escalators on Concourse level, and then not stray more than the few yards between bar and betting point for the entire afternoon?

Yet they do, as did a couple of my pals, Steve and Kevin Howard, with their other halves, celebrating Steve’s birthday in what has become an annual ritual. They found a table, incredibly, to park their gently ageing limbs, with a nice telly in perfect view and then joined most of the crowd in wondering just how Zarkandar failed to hold the rally of hat-trick hero Reve de Sivola and Daryl Jacob in the JLT Long Walk Hurdle.

Your first 30 days for just £1

At ground level, it seemed the disbelief stretched as far as Paul Nicholls as he walked alongside Sam Twiston-Davies and the horse back to unsaddle. “He won’t last in that job”, opined Steve later on the way back to Billericay, probably echoing Jacob’s thoughts as he pondered the might-have-beens after his own short stint trying to fill Ruby Walsh’s boots.

You can understand why Ruby decided to abandon the regular commute from Ireland, leaving only Barry Geraghty as a two-country regular. Yesterday at Fairyhouse Ruby won three of the first four races (two steering jobs) for Willie Mullins and was home in time for tea.

The crowds in the stands were generally well dressed and well behaved, if a little seasonally over-excited in some instances, but the atmosphere was genial and the emphasis elsewhere was on family. Youngsters with smiley faces abounded and there was an after-racing session of Christmas carols, led by and sung with enthusiasm exceeding accuracy by someone, I believe, imitating the REAL Father Christmas.

There must have been a risk that food and drink might even have run out, strangely given Ascot’s experience of catering for huge attendances. Steve related on the way home that one man, buying a bottle of Laurent Perrier Pink champagne, had already stumped up the requisite £108 when told (A) that there was no ice bucket available, so he would need to consume it warm, and (B), “sorry we’ve run out of champagne glasses, so you’ll have to take wine glasses”. He did, hope he and his friends didn’t mind the warm fizz – they probably didn’t notice by that stage in the proceedings.

One race after Reve de Sivola/Zarkandar, we were treated to yet another of those brilliantly-efficient Geraghty rides as The Young Master dominated in the Mappin & Webb Silver Cup.

I tend to work from the three-monthly parts of the BHA’s programme book, and the page covering Ascot, sent out in the summer, revealed this as a 50 grand race with just over £28,000 to the winner. In the event it was doubled to 100k with £56,000 to the winner, who had been the unwitting victim of one of the crassest blunders in racing administration of recent times, being allowed to run in a race for which he was not qualified.

That Badger Ales Trophy on November 8 was worth £34,000, and having efficiently seen off 17 rivals on what was only his third chase start, the five-year-old not only lost the prize, but got the added “benefit” of a 14lb hike in his rating. Doubly jeopardy indeed!

Neil Mulholland and the horse’s owner made a few grizzly noises at first, but the trainer got on with it as he had to as while Weatherby’s should have spotted the ineligibility, it is ultimately the trainer’s responsibility.

The case of The Young Master is the latest example of why it is never impossible for the impossible to happen in racing. As recently as mid-November last year, the gelded son of Echo of Light had raced 12 times without success on the level and over hurdles.

Then at Fontwell, in a staying novice handicap off 94, he won for the first time, triggering a sequence of ten races in which only twice did he fail to pass the winning post in front. First at Exeter, a week after the Fontwell win, he fell when still in contention. Then, after successive victories, two each on the Flat (Southwell, Kempton) and over hurdles (Fakenham, Sedgefield) he trailed home 10th of 11 in another Kempton handicap.

That ended a hectic winter programme, but the young trainer was saving the best for later. Reappearing in September in a novice chase under A P McCoy he was impressive in running away from three rivals at Worcester, earning the same 121 mark over fences that his hurdling exploits had deserved. The following month he graduated to a Cheltenham amateur riders’ race, again winning convincingly, and the 130 rating was nowhere near enough to stop him at Wincanton, even if the regulations were.

So it was off to Ascot, 14lb higher, and despite a tendency to jump wildly left, unobtrusively corrected by Geraghty, The Young Master completed a rise of Hunt Ball proportions, eerily in the week that Hunt Ball’s one-time owner Anthony Knott collected a three-year ban from the sport.

I don’t know if we can hope Ray Tooth’s stylish Tuesday Catterick winner Notnowsam will ever grace such stages as Ascot and Cheltenham, but this likeable young stayer gave us a nice Christmas boost which we hope Warren Greatrex’s April Dusk might add to over the holiday period. He won his only Irish point in the spring and is shaping well, by all accounts.

Then it’ll be New Year’s Day at Musselburgh for Dan Skelton-trained Adrakhan, who showed much more when a good runner-up to Chatez at Warwick on only his second lifetime start. It might be a bit early to hope for another Punjabi to emerge, but as The Young Master’s connections will tell you, anything’s possible.