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2019 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 13th March 2019)

Each day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY TWO: Wednesday 13th March 2019

 

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f


2018 Winner: SAMCRO (8/11 fav)
Trainer –Gordon Elliott
Jockey - Jack Kennedy


Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 18 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13
  • All of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 8 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 14 of the 24 top 3 places
  • 18 of the last 20 were NH bred
  • 13 of the last 20 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (5 of the last 9 begin their careers in Irish points)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 14 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 54 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 33 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 16 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten)

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2018 Winner: PRESENTING PERCY (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Patrick Kelly
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 9 of the last 11
  • 9 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 12 favourites won (50%)
  • Irish bred horses are 18 from the last 22
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
  • 22 of the last 26 were novice hurdling last season
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 52 winners had)
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
  • Avoid unbeaten horses over fences
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 1 of the last 19 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • All 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 24

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2018 Winner: BLEU BERRY (20/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh

 

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Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 14 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 11 of the last 13 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 24 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (2 wins each in last 9 years)
  • 9 of the last 17 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 13 of the last 25 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 10)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 10 winners)
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 9

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 15 years
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 301to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
  • Only 4 of the last 18 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • The last 74 horses wearing headgear have been beaten
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race last year, but overall has a bad record – 29 runners – just one placed inside the top 2

 

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2018 Winner: ALTIOR (Evs)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 18 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 3 of the last 6 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 22 of the last 34 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 7 of the last 11 between them
  • 15 of the last 16 winners had run that calendar year
  • 35 of the last 37 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 19 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 12 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 36 years
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 17 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 13 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2018 Winner: TIGER ROLL (7/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 12 of the last 14 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 8 of the last 13 winners carried 10-13 or less
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 8 of the last 14 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 15 between them)
  • 11 or the last 14 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 16

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2018 Winner: VENEER OF CHARM (33/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • Respect Fillies
  • 7 of the last 8 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 10 of the last 14 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 7 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • The last 13 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 9 runnings

 

Negatives….

  • Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 29 between them
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 12 (and all not placed in the top 5 either)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before

 

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2018 Winner: RELEGATE (25/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Katie Walsh

Pluses….

  • 24 of the last 26 had won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (19 from 35)
  • 4 of the last 9 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 17 of the last 26 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 26 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 18 winners were second season horses
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 16 of the last 18 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 16 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 34 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 20-7 in the race history

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 58 since 2000
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

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