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Stat of the Day, 26th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Laafy @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders centre group, pushed along and outpaced when groups merged over 2f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong )

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 5-runner, Group 2, Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

Your first 30 days for just £1

We start with the racecard, one report and one of my own angles...

...followed by the pace/draw heat map...

...and finally the speed ratings...

All the above, bar my own Frankie Dettori angle should be self-explanatory, but briefly we've an in-form 2 yr old hailing from a yard with a good record at this venue (C5). Our pick will be ridden by Frankie Dettori who himself is in good form (14, 30) and also rides well here (C1, C5).

Please note the 14, 30, C1 & C5 are all detailed via clicking the trainer and/or jockey form icon under the horse's name.

As all the above is readily available to you all, I won't patronise you by going over them and I'll spend my time briefly touching on that Sire snippet before explaining my Frankie Dettori angle.

This is the first season for offspring of sire New Bay and with 12 wins from 49, they've made an impressive start and all I'd want to add those numbers is that if you just backed those sent off at 10/1 or shorter within 45 days of their last run, you'd have 10 wins from 25 (40% SR) and profits of 21.1pts at an ROI of 84.4%.

And now that Frankie Dettori angle. Frankie needs no introduction from me, of course and as one of (if not) the best in the business, but as such his rides tend to be overbet making it difficult to profit from him. In fact, backing him every time since the start of 2016 looks like this...

...and 2.76pts profit from 1311 bets just doesn't float my boat, so I apply these simple / logical filters...

to get me to this point (the racecard version includes his two rides today, hence the difference in the total number of runs)...

which I then take to this point before further deeper analysis...

...and those 574 rides include of relevance today...

  • 142/549 (25.9%) on the Flat
  • 139/526 (26.4%) at Class 1
  • 123/388 (31.7%) from those placed LTO
  • 92/268 (34.3%) in fields of 8 or fewer runners
  • 91/249 (36.6%) from LTO winners
  • 43/145 (29.7%) during September/October
  • 37/123 (30.1%) in Group 2 races
  • and 22/100 (22%) here on the Rowley...

...whilst LTO winners in Class 1 Flat contests of 8 or fewer runners are 43 from 107 (40.2% SR), including 10 from 23 (43.5%) at Group 2, 9 from 16 (56.25%) in September and 4 from 7 (57.1%) at Group 2 in September...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 12.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS