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Racing Insights, 28th November 2020

I was reasonably pleased with the way today's race panned out. I got the first two home the wrong way round by trying to beat the market and one of the two I though might be involved at a price finished third at 14/1.

Not perfect, but not a disaster and now I switch focus to Saturday, my last piece of the week on a day where the excellent Trainer/Jockey combo report is a free for all, whilst we also open up the following full racecards to all members...

  • 12.00 & 1.36 at Fairyhouse
  • 12.40 & 3.00 at Newbury
  • 1.08 & 3.28 at Doncaster

Matt's recent videos highlighted the importance of shortlisting (something I do regularly for you on this column) and race selection and I couldn't agree more. Faced with the above half dozen races, the one that appeals most is the first of the two at Newbury, which looks a really good contest.

Before I dive in, I'll explain my own race selection here. The Fairyhouse races are a 13-runner chase for lady (mainly 7lb claimers) jockeys followed by an 18-runner maiden. I'm not into conditional jockey chases (irrespective of the sex of the riders), I'm not into races of more than 12 runners and I'm not into maiden hurdles either!

The second Newbury race is an excellent quality of race, but again there are 18 runners, whilst at Doncaster I'm serving a mares' novice hurdle and a bumper : I don't do novice hurdles or bumpers either!

So, partially by default and partially because on first glance it looks a good race, we're going to try and unpick the 12.40 Newbury, a 6-runner, Grade 2, Novices Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good ground worth £17,085 and here's the card filtered by speed rating...

As I often do, I'll work through the card from left to right making notes on the pros and cons of each column, something like...

FORM
Pretty much all of them have plenty of good form in the history, but Hold The Note and One For The Team haven't won for a while, so they'd be negatives here.

CLASS
Positive : Next Destination is the only one not stepping up in class.
Negative : Up 1 class : Southfield Stone. Up 2 classes : Kalooki, Acey Milan, One For The Team, whilst Hold The Note is up three classes

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COURSE/DISTANCE
Acey Milan and One For The Team are previous winners here at Newbury and the latter has also won over today's trip, as has Next Destination whilst Kalooki has a course and distance win to his name

TRAINER FORM
All the trainers bar Mick Channon (Hold The Note) are either in good form and/or have good past records here at Newbury.

JOCKEY FORM
Positive : Kalooki, Next Destination & One For The Team
Negative : Southfield Stone and Hold The Note

GEEGEEZ RATINGS
The four with ratings are fairly close together (4th's rating is 90.8% of top rated), whilst the other two have no chasing form to rate : one's a debutant and the other unseated on debut LTO.

With just six to consider, I've no need to discard any right now, but Hold The Note featured in the negatives a little too often for my liking. Perhaps Instant Expert will show him in a better light?

Southfield Stone clearly likes Good ground, which not all chasers do (many prefer some cut in the ground) and he seems happy in these small fields. Acey Milan has 2 wins from 5 at Class 1 (albeit in Listed Bumpers, one of which was here at Newbury) and was a runner-up in a Grade 3 Hurdle this time last year. The 0 from 4 at the trip is a little misleading, though, as he won't lack stamina having won over 3m1f on Soft last time out.

Hold The Note has little there of note, if you pardon the pun, but he did make the frame two of those three Class 1 defeats, including a runner-up finish (bt by half a length) over 3m in another Gr2 Novice chase earlier this year. Kalooki has lots of green albeit from small sample sizes, but his record over these longer trips catches the eye (he was second over 3m on heavy in the one he lost!).

Next Destination is clearly the class horse here, having made half a dozen appearances at Class 1, making the frame every time and winning four of them including 2 Grade 1 successes over hurdles (chase debut today), whilst One For The Team again fails to excite. In fairness, there's plenty of amber, but he's outdone by at least one rival in every column. His highlights are probably 1 win and 1 place from 3 at this venue and a win plus 2 places from four in the distance range.

I'll still not do any discards, as six is very workable, but at this stage, I'd still be reticent about backing Hold The Note and One For The Team is heading in the same direction.

Could the possible pace make-up of the race save them?

Of the 24 races considered, 19 of them (79.1%) have been won by horses who have prominently (33.3%) or led (45.8%) putting Kalooki and Southfield Stone in pole position, so to speak. I think that one of the other four will have to make a move earlier than expected to avoid the pace-setters nicking the race from a long way out, but these jockeys are no mugs, they'll know what they're doing.

At this point, I've seen enough about Hold The Note and One For The Team and I think they'll be the last two home. I also think that this will be too tough for Acey Milan, even though he did win at Aintree last time out. I just feel the jump from beating a 127-rated horse by a length and a half at Class 3 to tackling a Grade 2 is a bit much.

So, as I like it to be, I have three, who are alphabetically...Kalooki, Next Destination and Southfield Stone.

Kalooki has finished 1121 in his last four outings and won a chase here by 12 lengths over course and distance last time out, albeit at Class 3. He was, however, a runner-up at this level two starts ago at Haydock in a Gr2 hurdle contest.

He is 41121 over obstacles including 411 for jockey Richard Johnson, 121 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, 4121 going left handed and 1 from 1 over fences.

Next Destination looks the class horse on paper and has made the frame in all nine starts to date, including his return to action at Wetherby four weeks ago when shrugging off the effects of a 920-day absence to be a runner-up in a Grade 2 hurdle!

His hurdling record reads 111312 including a win over 3 miles, that win at Grade 2 and a couple at Grade 1. He is 11132 going left handed, but is 0 from 2 here in the UK and has never run on ground quicker than soft.

Southfield Stone is ultra-consistent with 14 top 3 finishes from 15 runs, winning six times. He's 1212 over fences this year and was only beaten by three quarters of a length in a Grade 2 in February and has previously won a Grade 2 hurdle.

He likes quick/good ground, has a win and a runner-up finish from two starts with today's jockey, he's happy in these smaller fields, was third on his only previous effort over fences here at Newbury and has finished 11232 in November.

Summary

Any of the three could win this, but I can't back Next Destination at 2/1 with my concerns about this being his chase debut and him needing to recover from the exertions of running so well after such a long lay-off, whilst I think the ground might be too quick for him : it's certainly an unknown variable and I don't like those at 2/1! I think Kalooki might well beat him here if he runs like he did when hosing up here over course and distance last time out on chase debut.

He was well clear that day (12 lengths ahead of a subsequent winner) and although this is a major step up in class, he should come on for the experience and hopefully go well here again at a current price of 11/4, which I think is fair.

And if we're talking about experience, then we have to look at Southfield Stone who I think might just have too much for both of them this time around. The other teo are probably more promising/talented and at 8yrs old, this one has put the miles in. He's a proven jumper, having completed all 15 races he has started and his experience might just see him home. Kalooki's jumping needs to improve here and if the pace charts are right, Southfield Stone will be applying pressure and that might just affect the younger horse.

13/2 looks very fair to me, so I'm siding with Southfield Stone ahead of Kalooki.  

2020 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Trends

Run at Newbury racecourse over 3m 2 1/2f the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is handicap race this gives National Hunt fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities.

We look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 28th November.

Like - Did you know that 16 of the last 18 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger?

 

Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Winners

Your first 30 days for just £1

2019 – DE RASHER COUNTER (12/1)
2018 - SIZING TENNESSEE (12/1)
2017 – TOTAL RECALL (9/2 fav)
2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav)
2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav)
2002 -  GINGEMBRE (16/1)

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends

16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
15/18 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (29 runnings) there have been 14 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 15th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.40 Chester : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and ran on towards finish, not reach leaders) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

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...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Amateur Jockeys Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Soft, ground worth £4,523 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting with the racecard and trainer snippets...

and then the Shortlist report gives us three angles of attack today...

So let's start with horse, who is clearly in prime form and seeks a fifth win on the bounce, the Shortlist says he's good at this class, distance and field size, so let's look at his numbers in other areas...

To date, Songkran is 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 7.86pts (+65.5% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.86pts (+120.6%) at sub-5/1 odds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 11.86pts (+148.2%) in races worth less than £5k
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 7.38pts (+105.5%) going left handed
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.38pts (+139.7%) after less than 18 days rest
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) for trainer George Boughey
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) this year
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.43pts (+210.8%) after a win LTO

And now to the trainer, George Boughey, who has the 14 & 30 icons next to his name, suggesting he's got his yard in decent nick. Closer inspection of his strike rates show a consistent 24% to 26% ratio at 7, 14, 30, 60, 90 and 180 day checkpoints, so his recent form is no flash in the pan.

George might not be as high profile as some other trainers, but he's one to keep an eye on, I think as his decent strike rates have yielded good profits, as he is 16 from 54 (29.6% SR) for 75.8pts (+140.4% ROI) this year at an A/E of 1.58 and an IV above 2.60, including of note today...

  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 38.1pts (+105.8%) with male runners
  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 25.5pts (+75%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 32pts (+91.5%) in handicaps
  • 8/25 (32%) for 41.5pts (+165.9%) on the Flat (but not shabby on the A/W either)
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 17.6pts (+135.2%) from LTO winners
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.8pts (+168%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.7pts (+151.5%) in 12-14 runner contests
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 3pts (+43.4%) so far this month
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 0.12pts (+6%) here at Newbury...

...whilst male handicappers at 6-30 dslr are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 24.1pts (+150.5% ROI) including 5/7 (71.4%) for 9.5pts (+135.8%) on the Flat...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

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Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

12.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG WON at 11/1 (Held up, headway approaching final furlong, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by three quarters of a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Again we'll start with the racecard information...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...which tells us that we've a 5yr old gelding who was in good form prior to lockdown (last seen just over 4 months ago, but probably would have ran early April), drops in class today and is being ridden by a jockey who has a good recent record for today's trainer, who himself is one of my ones to follow at this track.

Time to be more specific!

The horse was 23122 in his last five starts over trips of 1m1.5f to 1m4f, all at Class 4 bar a narrow defeat at Class 2, so form, trip and class shouldn't be his undoing today. He is, admittedly, unproven on grass, but (a) you can't have everything and (b) that's why he was 6/1 overnight.

Onto the Trainer Jockey 1 Year report (TJ365 as I abbreviate it), pretty straightforward stuff. Luke Morris has a 1 in 4 record for trainer Ed Walker over the last year the 15.73pts profit at Industry SP is boosted to 25.6pts at Betfair SP at an ROI of 44.9%. This includes...

  • 14/41 (34.2%) for 35.1pts (+85.6%) with male runners
  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 26.22pts (+59.6%) in handicaps
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 19.38pts (+57%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 17.24pts (+82.1%) at Class 5

giving us...

which includes...

*

Next up is my cunningly entitled "Newb Flat" angle, which is probably easy to work out ie trainers to follow at Newbury and Ed Walker is one of three whose handicappers I keep an eye out for, because blindly backing them over the last three seasons would have rewarded you as follows...

...a strike rate is excess of 20%, good profit at a rate of almost 85p in the pound and an A/E north of 1.3 is all good news and closer inspection of the 9 winners & 44 runners shows...

  • 6/16 (37.9%) for 21.93pts (+137.1%) at Class 5
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.76pts (+140%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 36.35pts (+279.6%) if fields of 11-13 runners
  • and 3 from 6 950%) for 21.62pts (+360.4%) in June

*

So, I've now covered everything I highlighted from the racecard and there's plenty to go at as usual, enough to hang a bet from indeed, but wait, there's more! As both the TJ365 report and the Newb Flat angle were very successful at Class 5, I might as well share one of my other saved micros with you. It's a logical follow on from the above and you probably won't be surprised to read that...


has generated...

from which...

  • 25/98 (25.5%) for 38.88pts (+39.7%) in sub-£4k contests
  • 22/73 (30.1%) for 57.13pts (+78.3%) during May to July
  • 14/49 (28.6%) for 31.98pts (+65.3%) over trips of 10-12 furlongs
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 14.26pts (+54.9%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 22.93pts (+152.9%) here at Newbury

with


giving

...from which Newbury runners are 2 from 4 and LTO runners-up are 2 from 2...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BoyleSports & Unibet at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!