Posts

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.45 Newbury : Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Led in start, led until 3rd (water), chased winner until 9th, outpaced before next, ridden and went 3rd 3 out, left remote 2nd at the last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 15-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £25992 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was useful on the Flat at Class 2 and better, winning over 2 miles at Ascot this summer and has 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts over hurdles, including winning over 2m5.5f at Cheltenham when last seen a fortnight ago.

Trainer Ian Williams' handicap hurdlers are 25 from 113 (22.1% SR) for 97.1pts (+85.9% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today...

  • males at 21/91 (23.1%) for 104.2pts (+114.6%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 20/75 (26.7%) for 59.8pts (+79.7%)
  • those sent off shorter than 5/1 are 18/46 (39.1%) for 23.9pts (+52%)
  • those ridden by Tom O'Brien are 6/25 924%) for 7.55pts (+30.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/22 (36.4%) for 4.57pts (+20.8%)
  • and at Class 2 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 58.4pts (+324.5%)

...and from the above : sub-5/1 males at 6-45 dslr = 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 13pts (+46.4% ROI)...

It would be remiss of me to point out that we're expecting soft ground, but confidence is taken from the fact that since the start of 2012, Ian's soft ground NH handicappers are 19/58 (32.8% SR) for 29.8pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1.

And finally, his LTO winners sent back out after a rest of less than three weeks are 49 from 160 (30.6% SR) for 55.2pts (+34.5% ROI) in handicap contests since the start of 2014...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Friday evening, whilst Ladbrokes were offering an extras half point on top. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.00 Kempton : Livvy's Dream @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, effort over 1f out, never looked liked getting on terms) - seemed a strange ride to me.

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.45 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £12762 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 5yr old mare who was a winner over 3 miles in her sole point to point run ahead of two wins and a place from four efforts over hurdles. She then had the thick end of 6 months (178 days to be precise) off the track, before returning to action 18 days ago at Kempton.

That Kempton race was her first crack at the larger obstacles and she landed a 2m2½f Novices Handicap Chase by a comfortable 5 lengths despite giving plenty of weight away to her rivals. There's more to come from this one and I like her chances at a track where her yard have done well of late.

In fact, Nicky Henderson's horses are 14 from 47 (29.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+52% ROI) here at Newbury over the last 12 months and in respect of today's pick, those 47 runners are...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 24.4pts (+56.7%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 12/30 (40%) for 38.7pts (+129%) when sent off in the Evens to 7/1 range
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 33pts (+110%) in the November-January first half of the NH season
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.2pts (+39.3%) over this 16.5f Newbury trip
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 35.3pts (+167.9%) with today's jockey, Nico de Boinville, in the saddle
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 14.5pts (+85.4%) from his 5 yr olds
  • and 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.84pts (+28.4%) at Class 3

...whilst Nico de Boinville has 4 wins and a place from 5 rides over this trip at Evens to 7/1 on Good to Soft/Soft in November to January, producing 14.89pts profit at an ROI of some 297.9%.

Also of note here today, Nicky Henderson's handicap chasers who were winners of a handicap chase LTO 16 to 25 days earlier are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 23.09pts (+329.9% ROI) since the start of 2013.

And more generally, since the start of 2014, UK Class 1 to 4 handicap chasers who have rested for less than three weeks after winning a handicap chase LTO are 118/408 (28.9% SR) for 80.7pts (+19.8% ROI), from which those who won a novice handicap chase LTO are 103/342 (30.1%) for 70.7pts (+20.7%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, 10Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.45 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.50 Newton Abbot : Sword of Fate @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 6/4 (Led, driven and headed before 2 out, weakened between last 2)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Classy 9/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5 Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2 yr old filly was a winner last time out just 15 days ago, staying on well and doing all her best work in the closing stages of a Class 4 contest over 6f, suggesting that an extra furlong might well suit her, whilst a drop in class should also help.

Tom Queally retains the ride from that win and the hood she wore for the first time that day is redeployed.

She had Lively Lydia a length and a half back in third place that day, but the latter reappeared yesterday at Windsor to make all in a 5 length victory, so that's another positive, as is the general recent good form of her yard, as Richard Spencer's horses are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 15pts (+44.1% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • on the Flat : 8/27 (27.6%) for 17.94pts (+61.9%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/27 (25.9%) for 17.06pts (+63.2%)
  • 2 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.78pts (+98.9%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 8/16 (50%) for 14.89pts (+93%)
  • with Tom Q in the saddle : 4/15 (26.7%) for 0.6pts (+4%)
  • females are 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.65pts (+135.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/10 (50%) for 20.25pts (+202.5%)
  • and over 7f : 3/10 (30%) for 2.26pts (+22.6%)

and whilst the Richard Spencer / Tom Queally angle has only been marginally profitable over the last month, the strike rate of 26.7% is both (a) good and (b) not a real surprise to me as since the start of this year the partnership has 8 winners from 36 (22.2% SR) for a more palatable/satisfactory 16.95pts profit at an ROI of 47.1% and these 36 runners include...

  • on the Flat : 6/25 (24%) for 23.43pts (+93.7%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.95pts (+120.6%)
  • 2 yr olds are 6/24 (25%) for 20.46pts (+85.2%)
  • on good to firm ground : 4/18 (22.2%) for 17.26pts (+95.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.4pts (+53.3%)
  • with horses stepping up in trip : 2/10 (20%) for 6.35pts (+63.5%)
  • and those dropping down a grade are 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.16pts (+88%)

...whilst 2 yr olds on the Flat at odds of 10/1 and shorter are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 28.93pts (+263% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stay Classy 9/2 BOGa price available from half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.20 Leicester : Delft Dancer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Dwelt in rear, headway over 2f out, tracked leaders over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd towards finish )

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m5½f on Good To Firm ground worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old was a winner over course and distance the last (and only previous) time she came to this venue, making her just one of two course winners in this field and the only one to have won at today's trip and of course by default, the only previous course and distance winner!

She hails from an in-form yard, as Ralph Beckett's charges have won 13 of 60 (21.5% SR) for 12.44pts (+20.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 14.15pts (+58.9% ROI) in the last fortnight.

Moreover, in handicaps here at Newbury since the start of 2010, Ralph's runners are 12 from 76 (15.8% SR) for 30.4pts (+40% ROI) and these include...

  • at trips of 1m to 1m6f : 11/44 (25%) for 43.04pts (+97.8%)
  • at odds of 3/1 to 11/1 (fairly safe to assume that's where we'll be today) : 11/43 (25.6%) for 44.04pts (+102.4%)
  • after a break of 16-25 days : 4/16 (25%) for 17.32pts (+108.25%)
  • and at Class 2 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 7.72pts (+55.1%)

...and from the above, over 1m to 1m6f at 3/1 to 11/1 = 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 57.04pts (+190.1% ROI), from which...

  • after 16-25 days since last run : 4/8 (50%) for 25.32pts (+316.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 15.72pts (+261.9%)
  • and whilst only one previous runner raced at Class 2, 16-25 days after their last run, it was a 9/1 winner!

Oisin Murphy is in the saddle today and I do like to see him up on the Beckett horses, as to date he is 39/201 (19.4% SR) for 68.6pts (+34.1% ROI) on them. Handicaps are my preferred medium for betting and in this sphere, the trainer/jockey combo are 21 from 81 (25.9% SR) for 79.8pts (+98.5% ROI), so well worth following!

And, of these 81 'cappers, those racing over 1m2f and beyond are 14/39 (35.9%) for 90pts (+230.8%) and from those longer distance runners, the ones sent off at 15/2 and shorter are 11 from 26 (42.3%) for 24.6pts (+94.6%).

At today's odds, some other "tipsters" might be advising an E/W bet, but I'm not a massive fan of that approach (tempts fate and now expects a placer 😉 )...

...so, the advice today is...a 1pt win bet on Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 26th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,782.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 66.2% units went through – 3/1* - 6/1 – 8/1

Race 2: 28.3% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 20/1 – 13/2 (4/1)

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 20/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 11/4* - 8/1

Race 5: 4.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 16/1 – 11/1 (3/1)

Race 6: 12.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 15/2, 12/1 (5/1)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 5 (Outofthequestion) & 3 (Kings Inn)

Leg 2 (6.40): 9 (Iconic Choice), 3 (Canford Dancer) & 8 (Fast Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.10): 8 (Lolita Polido), 12 (Spanish Aria) & 2 (Cottontail)

Leg 4 (7.40): 4 (Tuff Rock) & 1 (Teodoro)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (Carlini), 3 (Enzo) & 5 (Dukeofwallingford)

Leg 6 (8.45): 2 (Swanton Blue), 6 (Yogiyogiyogi) & 9 (Global Excel)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.10: Starting point to the meeting; there are no course winners in the Placepot races tonight, lest you thought I had forgotten to include the service!  Secondly; if you were trying to find the results of the corresponding meeting from last year, you need to go to the Thursday of the same week (29th). Upwards and onward by informing that four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven renewals of this event and the trend looks certain to gain momentum this year with the likes of OUTOFTHEQUESTION and KINGS INN having been declared by their dual purpose trainers, namely Alan King and Paul Nicholls respectively.  Hopefully, just the two ‘selections’ will be enough to progress through to the second leg of our favourite wager, this being a potential ‘dead eight’ event.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites (via four renewals) has secured a Placepot position (no winners).

 

6.40: ICONIC CHOICE seems to logical place to start after a decent effort at Haydock at the first time of asking when closing on the three principles close home without the jockey using his whip.  Michael Bell expected better of his Pastoral Pursuits filly FAST ENDEAVOUR from what we have witnessed thus far but it is still early doors in her career, whereby another Placepot position cannot be ruled out of the equation.  CANFORD DANCER was reluctant at the stalls and raced wide when making her debut, finishing best of the newcomers. 14/1 looks a big enough price about the Richard Hughes raider in this grade/company.

Favourite factor:  Both of the (4/1 & 9/4) favourites have finished out with the washing to date.

 

7.10: COTTONTAIL looks a tad too big at 14/1 in a place this morning, now stepping up a couple of furlongs following her debut over the minimum trip.  That said, there was plenty to like about LOLITA POLIDO at the first time of asking at Kempton too, especially with the form having been franked to decent effect.  John Gosden reports that SPANISH ARIA has a little bit of temperament about her but John is one to enthuse over such mannerisms rather than worry about them.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

7.40: There is a plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue about TUFF ROCK and TEODORO as the heat begins to kick in already this morning on another wonderful summer day in Bristol.  The race is likely to be run to suit David Simcock’s first named inmate who represents the stable for the first time.  David is adept at taking in ‘refugees’ from other yards and finding a few pounds and pounces of improvement, which is all that might be necessary to lift this prize.  I guess we should not entirely rule Travertine out of the mix too quickly, given that Jonjo O’Neill has saddled six of his last 14 runners to winning effect, statistics which have produced ten points of level stake profit during the period.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

8.10: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights between nine stones and 9-6 which eliminates the top two horses in the handicap, leaving the merits of ENZO and DUKEOFWALLINGFORD to (arguably) consider first and foremost.  Brian Meehan saddles his first runners tonight (CARLINI in this contest) since thwarting the huge gamble in the ‘Wokingham’ on Saturday relating to Dreamfield who was sent off as the shortest priced market leader in the race for as long as anyone can recall.  One of the worst things punters can do is listen to comments of media commentators who generalise all too often.  Yes, the victory of Brian’s Bacchus would have annoyed many a person, but possibly not as much as the rails bookmakers who laid the 33/1 winner to a ‘grand’ each way just before the off!

Favourite factor: There is only one successful (9/4) favourite to report via eight renewals thus far.  Detectives are still out searching for the other seven market leaders which failed to reach the frame!

 

8.45: Last year’s beaten favourite DEEDS NOT WORDS has been declared again but as has been offered before, I tend to find Michael Wigham’s runners working better for me when they are at a double figure price.  Accordingly, I prefer the likes of SWANTON BLUE, YOGIYOGIYOGI and GLOBAL EXCEL on this occasion. There is plenty of money queuing up for Deeds Not Words at the time of writing, though that is nothing new.  I was ‘on’ a few months ago at a double figure price which was halved in no time at all, only for the horse to be withdrawn…

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite (Deeds Not Words) finished out of the money.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £285.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 48.1% units went through – 80/1 – 3/1 – 5/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 93.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 4/7* - 14/1

Race 3: 29.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/4* - 7/1

Race 4: 12.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 6/1 – 16/1

Race 5: 19.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 11/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 76.2% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 10/3 – 10/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Almurr), 3 (Confiding) & 4 (Daafr)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Klassique), 2 (Feline Groovy) & 9 (Solar Echo)

Leg 3 (2.20): 8 (Snow Wind) & 7 (Scottish Jig)

Leg 4 (2.55): 1 (Sea Of Class) & 3 (Dramatic Queen)

Leg 5 (3.30): 5 (Dourado), 1 (Madeleine Bond) & 9 (Wind In My Sails)

Leg 6 (4.00): 1 (Agar’s Plough) & 3 (Mountain Peak)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.20: ALMURR was the subject of some market activity overnight and there was plenty to like about Brian Meehan’s Dandy Man representative when beaten less than three lengths on debut at Leicester.  CONFIDING has been pleasing connections back at Martin Meade’s ranch, whilst DAAFR should be there or thereabouts entering the final furlong.

Favourite factor: Only one of three favourites has secured a Placepot position to date.  The relevant 4/7 market leader finished second last year as we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective after three renewals.

 

1.50: This is a guessing game to a fashion, though the Galieo filly KLASSIQUE could be a tad overpriced with a couple of firms at the time of writing.  William Haggas continues his relentless run of decent form and Tom Marquand’s mount might prove to be the safest option, from a Placepot perspective at least.  Others catching the eye include stable companion FELINE GROOVY and SOLAR ECHO.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.20: With a couple of likely looking representatives in the first heat of this contest, William Haggas looks to have a fairly strong hold, having declared his High Chaparral filly SNOW WIND.  Bet365 are out on a limb at 9/2 as I pen this column and that could look a very decent price in an hour or two I’ll wager.  SCOTTISH JIG has experience on her side (to a fashion) and John Gosden’s Speightstown raider also looks sure to go close.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card. The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.55: SEA OF CLASS and DRAMATIC QUEEN hail from the William Haggas yard which is seemingly seeking to take over the meeting given their declarations on Thursday.  SEA OF CLASS looks to be the clear pick of the pair, though readers should take note of the ‘favourite factor’ below before diving in with both feet!

Favourite factor: Only one of the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events has finished in the frame, stats which include the last two odds on favourites.  That said, market leaders have won three of the last seven renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sea Of Class (good to firm)

 

3.30: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured six of the available eight Placepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 25/1, 15/2 and 6/1, albeit via 70% of the total number of runners.  Upwards and onward using that ‘edge’ by naming DOURADO, MADELEINE BOND and WIND IN MY SAILS against the remaining thirteen contenders.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, whilst only one of the market leaders has secured a Placepot positon during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

1/2—Madeleine Bond (good)

1/2—Wind In My Sails (good to firm)

1/1—Kyllachys Tale (good to firm)

1/9—Cricklewood Green (good)

 

4.00: If any of the 15/2 on offer about AGAR’S PLOUGH is still available, I would be inclined to make an investment in a race in which barely any other horse has attracted support overnight.  MOUNTAIN PEAK is nominated as the most obvious threat.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged via the last ten contest, though seven gold medallists during the study period scored at a top price of 7/1.  Five of the ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 18th May

YORK – MAY 18 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £106.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,948.46 - Favourites stats - 44 in total - 17 winners - 11 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.8% units went through – 4/1** - 4/1** - 16/1

Race 2: 40.8% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 5/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 45.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 40/1

Race 4: 77.85% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 15/8*

Race 5: 46.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 5/1 – 8/1

Race 6: 19.8% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 14/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 10 (No Lippy), 3 (Carrie’s Vision) & 16 (Strings Of Life)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (Sheilha Reika) & 6 (Threading)

Leg 3 (3.30): 7 (Stradivarius) & 1 (Desert Skyline)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Valcartier), 3 (Kings Gift) & 9 (Master Carpenter)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Crafty Madam), 3 (Pepita) & 4 (Ifubelieveindreams)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Koditime), 5 (Areen Faisal) & 7 (Marnie James)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eleven of the thirteen winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 with the likes of NO LIPPY and CARRIE’S VISION making plenty of appeal this time around towards the top of the market.  Mark Johnston appears to have a typical MJ streetfighter in NO LIPPY who took control early doors in the ‘Lily Agnes’ last week and was not for passing.  This is a tougher assignment obviously, though there is every indication that Mark’s Oasis Dream filly can land the hat trick en route to even better things later in the season.  The other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint is STRINGS OF LIFE in an absorbing start to the final day of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Six of the 15 favourites (thirteen renewals) have obliged to date, whilst ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

9-2-7 (13 ran-soft)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via twelve renewals during the last thirteen years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  The opening line of the stats immediately below suggest the race could develop between the market leaders SHEIKHA REIKA and THREADING, the horses being listed in that order via slightly more strength on the exchanges overnight for the first named Roger Varian trained representative.  Those looking for an alternative each way play (though this is a ‘short field’ event) could do worse than consider the overnight ‘rag’ in the contest’ namely JULIET FOXTRET at around the 12/1 mark.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 25 of the last 28 horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the thirteen favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

2-5 (6 ran-soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

York record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Awesome Tank (good)

1/1—Threading (good to soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ (thoroughbreds were built for speed rather than endurance from my viewpoint) and I will simply be looking to get through the Placepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that STRADIVARIUS has plenty to offer by way of past results, whilst those of you looking for an each way/Placepot interest in the contest might consider the likes of DESERT SKYLINE and CALL TO MIND.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 recent favourites have finished in the frame, whilst seven market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/12—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

1/1—Max Dynamite (good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available Placepot positions. Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms two years ago and the pick only four 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be VALCARTIER and KINGS GIFT.  That all said, there is the small matter of MASTER CARPENTER having been declared to attempt to defend his crown successfully after blowing his rivals away in no uncertain fashion twelve months ago.  Don’t listen to too much talk of that race having been contested of soft ground, as Rod Millman’s Mastercraftsman raider has won on the course under good conditions as well. Carrying two pounds less on this occasion, Red’s seven-year-old demands Placepot respect at the very least, especially as 7/1 was still on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 23 favourites have secured Placepot positions in recent times, though only three market leaders have won down the relevant years.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

5-3-6-19 (20 ran-soft)

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of the course winner in the field:

2/4—Master Carpenter (good & soft)

 

4.35: Ryan Moore has a number of each way chances on the card, arguably none more so than CRAFTY MADAM in this contest.  Given Ryan’s 6/18 record for Clive Cox down the years, CRAFTY MADAM is the first name on the team sheet ahead of other PEPITA and a potential each way player in IFUBELIEVEINDREAMS.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 4/1, 7/2 & 11/4.  Detectives are still searching for the unplaced favourite that was sunk without trace.

York record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/6—Dark Intention (good to soft)

 

5.05: 23/38 horses to have gained Placepot positions (via eleven renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with six qualifying runners to consider this time around (jockey claims are taken into account) in a sixteen strong field, potentially at least. KODITIME (another Cox/Moore runner on the card), AREEN FAISAL and MARNIE JAMES get the vote.

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-1-14 (12 ran-soft)

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Marnie James (good to firm)

1/3—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st April

NEWBURY – APRIL 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 30.7% units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 – 12/1 (3/1)

Race 2: 58.8% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 69.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 9/4* - 8/1

Race 4: 29.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 16/1 – 10/1 – 10/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 87.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 5/2 – 4/1

Race 6: 92.8% of the units secured the dividend – 100/1 – 5/2 – 6/5*

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 10 (Humbolt Current) & 11 (Mapped)

Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Cool To Mind) & 4 (Defoe)

Leg 3 (2.35): 11 (Tajaanus), 9 (Natural) & 1 (All Out)

Leg 4 (3.10): 4 (Expert Eye) & 6 (Hey Gaman)

Leg 5 (3.45): 22 (Gilgamesh), 19 (Graphite Storm), 20 (Keyser Soze) & 21 (Mazyoun)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (He’s Amazing), 11 (Jack Crow) & 15 (Ta Allak)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford two years ago with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results.  The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’.  I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!

 

**Further notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote for Newbury.  Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury.  This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground.  If the ground dries up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have!  I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.

 

1.25: Only MAPPED is standing up in any shape or form against the favourite HUMBOLT CURRENT with this pair fully expected to pull clear of the remainder with half a furlong or more to run, the pick of which (at a distance) might prove to be Coolongolook.

Favourite factor: Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last ten years (first and third five years ago).  COOL TO MIND was a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago and the William Haggas raider might not be quite as ‘ground dependent’ as DEFOE who would appreciate showers in the lead up to the contest.  If the four-year-old trend is to be stopped in its tracks, DANEHILL KODIAC could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially following overnight support.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Call To Mind (good to firm)

2/2—Defoe (2 x soft)

3/10—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

2.35: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ five years ago in a career which spanned over forty years.  Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998.  Richard 'junior’ saddled the ‘Chelmsford winner’ recently and his three runners offer the chance of the Hannon tradition gaining momentum.  NATURAL would not appreciate more cut (connections hoping that any rain in the area fails to materialise), though stable companion ALL OUT would probably benefit for a shower or two.  Richard’s short priced raider TAJAANUS would probably like the ground just as it is at the time of writing given his 3/5 ratio under such conditions.  Whatever the weather then, Richard should secure Placepot positions, with at least one of his representatives reaching the frame.  Givota and course winner Hikmaa are others to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':

1/1—Hikmaa (soft)

 

3.05: Having won five of the last nine and six of the last 15 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card, though a Hannon representative is only visible by its absence on this occasion unfortunately.  Whether the team spied the likes of EXPERT EYE and HEY GAMAN waiting in the wings is an unknown factor of course though either way, there is no disputing the fact that this pair possess leading claims this time around. Connect and Raid offer speculative investors a chance of going close at inflated odds from my viewpoint, though this original ‘dead eight’ event has been thwarted by an early withdrawal.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 19 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'Greenham':

1/1—Expert Eye (good)

1/1—Hey Gaman (soft)

1/1—James Garfield (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 18 of the last 19 renewals on turf between them, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 59 of the last 71 available Placepot positions in the process.  Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 13 contests during the last 19 years whilst claiming 40 Placepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GILGAMESH (Drawn 17/24), GRAPHITE STORM (9), KEYSER SOZE (1) and MAZYOUN (7) according to my slide rule, given that six of the eight four-year-old winners during the last thirteen years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12.  Favourite backers are still enduring nightmares about the well backed 7/2 market leader (Chelsea Lad) which was pulled up before the race had barely begun twelve months ago.  The favourite carried 28.4% of the live Placepot units into the contest adding salt into a very deep wound.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via 18 renewals during the last 19 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 14 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.

Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:

12-8-4-7 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)

21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)

11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)

11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)

22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)

26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)

14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)

20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)

6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)

14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:

1/3—Graphite Storm (good to soft)

 

4.20: This looks to be a far more open event that was the case in the first heat which opened the Newbury programme.  So much so in fact that three runners are required to try and ensure that we secure the dividend if we were live going into the Placepot finale.  My trio against the remaining twelve contenders consists of HE’S AMAZING, JACK CROW and Roger Varian’s newcomer TA ALLAK.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stat apply. Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.30:

1/1—Rake’s Progress (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Friday 20th April

NEWBURY – APRIL 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 61.8% units went through – 10/3* - 7/1 – 5/1

Race 2: 77.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/4** - 5/1 – 11/4**

Race 3: 71.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 7/2

Race 4: 16.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 28/1 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 5: 55.5% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 7/4* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 4/1 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Dave Dexter), 9 (Well Done Fox) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Qaysar), 11 (Tallow) & 8 (Rogue)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lah Ti Dah) & 1 (Arcadian Cat)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (A Monetofmadness), 2 (Just Glamorous) & 7 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Jukebox Jive), 9 (Champagne Champ) & 6 (Injam)

Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 4 (Bombyx)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

1.50: Ralph Beckett cannot do a great deal wrong at present (recent ratio of 6/16) though his first time out runners in the juvenile sector during the last five years offer a strike rate of just 11% via five winners.  That said, this does not appear to be the strongest of two-year-old contests by Newbury standards whereby Ralph’s Stimulation colt DAVE DEXTER is included in the Placepot mix.  The money (what there was of it overnight) was for WELL DONE FOX, whilst AZOR AHAI completes my trio against the remaining seven runners.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed during the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists have been returned in single figures and at 10/1, the other winner during the ‘recent’ period could hardly have been classed as an extreme outsider.

 

2.25: With Richard Hannon having struck form of late and holding a decent chance in the opener with Well Done Fox, the trainer will be fancying his chances of extending the good run here, having declared both QAYSAR (dual winner from just three starts) and ROGUE who is the lone course winner in the line up.   The latter named raider looks a tad overpriced at 20/1 in a few places at the time of writing, albeit Richard’s Choisir colt QAYSAR deserves his place at the head of the market at the time of writing.  Arguably, I should not eliminate stable companion Oliver Reed from my list but I fancy the afore mentioned pair today.  TALLOW is the only horse from the current market front runners to have won on turf which is obviously a positive pointer towards the William Haggas raider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though those stats only include one successful market leader.  Indeed, the last two gold medallists scored at 25/1 and 14/1, whilst just four of the last eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/3—Rogue (good)

 

3.00: Markets like this can prove volatile and whispers emerge almost as soon as the gates open at a venue such as Newbury.  That said, there has to be some significance in the declaration of John Gosden’s Dubawi filly LAH TI DAH who is on offer at 33/1 for the Epsom Oaks as I pen this column.  John has enjoyed tremendous success at this meeting in recent years, yet Frankie’s mount is the only stable representative on the card this afternoon.  The experience already gained by ARCADIAN CAT could take Ralph Beckett’s Kittens Joy filly into the frame again.

Favourite factor: Although only two market leaders have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years, nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period.  Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst only one of the last four jollies has reached the frame.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and three of the five relevant entries today make appeal in one way or another, namely A MOMENTOFMADNESS, JUST GLAMOROUS and BLUE DE VEGA.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  That said, the each way 9/1 price of JUST GLAMOROUS is ‘winning the day’ as I consider a bet in this event aside from our favourite wager which covers the first six races on the card.  Most unusually, Ron Harris runs nine horses on the day, though only Just Glamorous has been directed towards Newbury, the other eight contenders all plying their trade at Bath this evening.  For the record, Ron has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: The last six winners have been returned at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include two winning favourites. That said, the other four recent market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

4.05: Three each way types grab my attention in this event who are listed in order of preference as JUKEBOX JIVE, CHAMPAGNE CHAMP and INJAM.  Anthony Honeyball’s first named raider has the assistance of John Egan in the saddle and this underrated pilot can add another winner to his tally which has largely gone unnoticed down the years.  If you look through the record books, you will surprised just how many trainers use this jockey, resulting in really impressive strike rates for the said handlers of which Anthony is one.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals last year alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good to soft)

1/1—Keep In Line (soft)

 

4.40: John Gosden has won the last three renewals of this event and the fact that the trainer is not represented this time around has been received as a major blow.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that the connections of TIGRE DU TERRE and BOMBYX are the likeliest beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years.  That said, the last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 24th March

DONCASTER – MARCH 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,231.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 16.6% units went through – 7/1, 11/1 & 33/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 19.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 20/1 (9/2)

Race 3: 41.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1, 10/3 & 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 20/1, 7/2*, 7/1 & 16/1

Race 5: 26.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 13/2 & 50/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1, 9/2 & 14/1 (11/4)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mjjack), 6 (Mr Lupton) & 4 (Lancelot Du Lac)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Kynren), 8 (What’s The Story) & 14 (Titus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Another Touch) & 6 (Zabeel Prince)

Leg 4 (3.35): 17 (Fire Brigade), 14 (Addeybb), 13 (Grey Britain) & 10 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Langholm), 10 (Lihou) & 4 (Carey Street)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Proschema) & 2 (Argentello)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Scroll down for Doncaster stats and Newbury Placepot information

 

1.50: The last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst only two favourites have prevailed via the last 14 contests.  Unfortunately, only the bottom weight is eliminated from my enquiries via the relevant weight stats this time around though in MJJACK, we have a half decent chance of securing a Placepot position at the very least in the opening race of the season.  There is money this morning for Karl Burke’s raider who looks an interesting each way bet for starters on a busy day.  Others of interest include course winner MR LUPTON and LANCELOT DU LAC who doesn’t mind some juice in the ground, though the general 3/1 quote would frighten yours truly away from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

4-12-1 (13 ran-good to soft)

14-12-2 (13 ran-soft)

10-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)

9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)

11-10-12 (14 ran-good)

5-7-14 (14 ran-good)

14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)

6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)

2-7-10 (11 ran-good)

16-17-12 (17 ran--good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Mjjack (heavy)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good)

1/4—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won 16 renewals during the last 20 years (including 13 of the last 16), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Eleven vintage representatives have been declared compared to just six twelve months ago which makes this renewal a little tougher to assess.  I have opted for KYNREN, WHAT’S THE STORY and TITUS.  The reserve nomination is awarded to ORIGINAL CHOICE.

Favourite factor: The last 16 favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.  Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 14 years.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

6-3-1-9 (21 ran-good to soft)

4-19-20-18 (21 ran-soft)

8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)

15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)

16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)

2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)

16-19-22-10 (22-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)

9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)

17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)

12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)

19-20-21-15 (24-good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the second race:

1/4—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/1—What’s The Stoory (soft)

 

3.00: ANOTHER TOUCH is the each way call in the contest, albeit ZABEEL PRINCE should take the beating on this ground which has produced some of his best form.  Richard Hannon secured a treble on the corresponding card last year and TABARRAK appears to be his best chance of a winner today.  That said, ground conditions are a worry and in ANOTHER TOUCH, we have a young horse which offers decent value for money at 11/1 (in places) this morning.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just five renewals to take into consideration with three of the six market leaders having secured Placepot positions (two winners).

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have claimed 23 of the last 60 available Placepot positions, statistics which include eight of the last fifteen winners, whilst the last 13 winners have carried 9-4 or less.  Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of FIERE BRIGADE, ADDEYBB, GREY BRITAIN and NOT SO SLEEPY.  I had to include the latter named raider who is a 66/1 chance in some books this morning which appears to be a more than generous quote given his 2/4 record on the prevailing ground. That said as a winner (similarly) of two of his four races on soft going, FIRE BRIGADE is a worthy favourite from my viewpoint, though value for money is only conspicuous by its absence.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 19 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just three of the other 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

Effect of the draw during the last fourteen years:

20-2-21-4 (22 ran-good to soft)

22-2-18-21 (22 ran-soft)

15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)

3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)

3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)

12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:

2/3—Gabrial (2 x good)

1/1—Stamp Hill (good to soft)

2/6—Withernsea (soft & heavy)

1/2—Bravery (good to soft)

 

4.10: LIHOU and CAREY STREET are alternative each way types to consider though at the time of writing, LANGHOLM is a warm favourite to put in mildly given that this is the infamous ‘Brocklesby’ contest which has sent many an investor to an early grave!  Wasntexpectingthat is the other juvenile to consider according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 27 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last fourteen renewals:

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

4.40: Tom Dacombe’s Declaration Of War colt PROSCHEMA ran well under these conditions on his second start as a juvenile and in terms of ‘laying off’ from a Placepot perspective, Richard Kingscote’s mount is the horse to play in the finale of our favourite wager.  That said, ARGENTELLO could be anything out of the Gosden yard if you are ‘chasing money’ (never recommended) towards the end of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Horses returned between 2/1* and 5/1 have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst runners sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed the other four contests.  It seems that each way bets between 11/2 and 12/1 in recent years have gone up in any amount of smoke, certainly from a win perspective at least.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stat for Doncaster on Saturday:

Richard Hannon secured a 703/1 treble at the corresponding (Lincoln Handicap) meeting last year – 3 runners today: Tabarrak (3.00), Moneyoryourlife (5.20) & Boycie (5.50)

 

NEWBURY ON SATURDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend £200.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.9% units went through – 7/1, 9/1 & 10/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 40.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1**, 7/1**, 25/1 & 9/1

Race 4: 50.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 14/1 & 2/1*

Race 5: 93.3% of the remaining units went through – 8/11* & 9/4

Race 6: 22.2% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 12/1 & 8/1 (9/2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 23rd March

NEWBURY – MARCH 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,464.50 (All six favourites finished out of the frame!)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 31.6% units went through – 7/4 (Win only – unplaced fav at 11/8)

Race 2: 32.1% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 8/1 & 11/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 8/1 (4/1)

Race 4: 27.7% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 7/2 (7/4)

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 9/1 (13/8)

Race 6: 38.2% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3, 9/1 & 33/1 (11/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Molineaux) & 2 (Euxton Lane)

Leg 2 (2.30): 11 (Morning Reggie), 2 (Halo Moon) & 3 (Private Malone)

Leg 3 (3.05): 10 (Fizzlestix), 5 (Christmas In April) & 4 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Another Frontier), 1 (Ice Cool Champs) & 2 (Le Boizelo)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Moabit) & 7 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Alfstar), 1 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 2 (Vivaldo Collonges)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.00: I live less than an hour away from Newbury and can report that we had several hours of overnight rain which if Newbury experienced, heavy ground could be the order of the day rather than the official “soft” call overnight.  Upwards and onward with MOLINEAUX expected to ‘enjoy’ the conditions more than most, connections possibly having to fear a challenge from EUXTON LANE at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: One of the three market leaders has claimed a Placepot position to date but even then, the 1/3 favourite was obviously expected to win the relevant contest which the jolly failed to do.

 

2.30: All eight winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 but with MORNING REGGIE sitting just 16 ounces under the ‘superior’ handicap barrier, I’m willing to offer Oliver Sherwood’s raider a chance.  There will certainly be worse 12/1 chances on the card though that ‘trade press quote’ might prove to be a tad fanciful by flag fall I’ll wager. I would have made Kincora Fort a danger but for noting that he was taken out of a ‘heavy ground’ event recently with the trainer suggesting that conditions were unsuitable for the horse.  Accordingly, I’m opting for the likes of HALO MOON and PRIVATE MALONE to offer most resistance up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have finished in the frame via eight renewals, statistics which include two (9/2 & 11/4) winners.

 

3.05: Six-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-6.  CHRISTMAS IN APRIL boasts ticks in each of the trend boxes with Nicky Henderson appearing to have found a decent opportunity for his event, albeit the ground is something of an unknown factor.  Nicky also saddles DARIUS DES BOIS which clouds the picture to a fashion though either way, FIZZLESTIX looks a major threat, albeit the six-year-olds falls short via the weight trend by some margin, especially with James Bowen taking off a useful three pounds in the plate.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions via eight renewals, statistics which include one 7/2 joint favourite.

 

3.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and all four vintage representatives on this occasion have proved that they can act under testing conditions.  Given that Bobo Mac has trouble negotiating obstacles quite frequently, I will opt for the other trio which are listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing; namely ANOTHER FRONTIER, ICE COOL CHAMPS and LE BOIZELO.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last seven years, whilst two of the other three winners during that period were returned at just 5/1 and 7/2.  Last year’s 12/1 gold medallist upset the applecart to a fashion.

 

4.10: Bryony Frost boasted fabulous aggregate January/February stats of 10/35 in the plate but the brilliant young rider has only been given six opportunities this month (one winner), which just goes to show how tough this game is for pilots to get decent rides.  Bryony appears to have been given a good chance here however aboard MOABIT who has won on both occasions that Bryony has been given the green light to ride.  EARLY DU LEMO is the ‘dark horse’ in the contest.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.

 

4.45: We should land the Placepot dividend if opting for the trio of ALFSTAR, JIMMY THE JETPLANE and VIVALDO COLLONGES against Billy Merriot in a more open Hunter Chase than we normally anticipate.  The latter named raider represents last year’s winning connections but the ground might have gone against the twelve-year-old overnight.

Favourite factor: As usual in Hunter Chase events, favourites have a good record having won five renewals during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists having scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Monetaire (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific details for Newbury on Friday:

It rained for several hours here in the west-country overnight whereby you should check the going before placing any bets.  “Soft” was the official overnight call but there could well be heavy areas if Newbury has endured the amount of rain we received in Bristol.

 

SEDGEFIELD ON FRIDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend: £172.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 31.8% units went through – 5/1, 4/1**, 40/1 (4/1**)

Race 2: 98.7% of the remaining units when through – 13/8, 11/10* & 5/1

Race 3: 18.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 28/1 & 11/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/1, 9/2 & 11/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 51.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 10/1

Race 6: 62.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/13* (Win only event)

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

5.15 Ludlow : Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, set good pace, joined and not fluent 2 out, ridden clear run-in to win by three lengths)

Our bid for a hat-trick goes in Friday's...

2.30 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 2m6.5f handicap chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £7,153 to the winner...

Why?

An in-form 9 yr old gelding who has won three of his last six outings and since being switched to the larger obstacles three starts ago, has a record reading 211. Both of his chasing victories have come on soft ground and whilst partnered by today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson, 51 and 29 days ago respectively.

His trainer Noel Williams doesn't send many runners on the short 35-mile round trip from his Oxfordshire base here to Newbury (in fact he only has this one runner today), but his record at the track stands at 3 winners from 9 (33.3% SR) for 22.01pts (+244.5% ROI) profit, so there must be something else keeping him away!

Of the nine that have come here, handicappers are 3/5 (60%) for 26.01pts (+520.2%) and those five are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 24.28pts (+809.3%) on soft ground.

It's also worth noting that over the last two years, Noel's LTO winners have won 4 of 16 (25% SR) for 5.61pts (+35.1% ROI), whilst over the last 18 months, his chasers have won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.74pts (+44.9% ROI), from which...

  • at Class 3 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.14pts (+35.6%)
  • under Wayne Hutchinson : 3/5 (60%) for 5.5pts (+110%)
  • and at odds of 4/1 and shorter : also 3/5 (60%) for 5.5pts (+110%)

...and this fairly simple approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes & SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th February

NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £30.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Whatswrongwithyou) & 8 (Rockpoint)

Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Barters Hill) & 4 (Bastien)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Saphir Du Rheu), 1 (Native River) & 2 (Cloudy Dream)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Politologue)

Leg 5 (3.35): 16 (Lalor), 21 (Silver Streak), 20 (Irish Roe) & 14 (Lough Derg Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Ibis Du Rheu), 5 (Duke Des Champs) & 7 (Reigning Supreme)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.15: It’s the changing of the (Newbury) guard on Saturday compared to twelve months ago when Nicky Henderson only held four entries on the day, having declared 12 (nearly 18% of the total number of declarations) this time around.  Out of interest, Paul Nicholls ‘held court’ last year with eight intended runners but drops back to half a dozen on this occasion.  Now that the housekeeping has been sorted, it’s worth noting that despite his dozen runners on the card, Nicky seemed intent on running WHATSWRONGWITHYOU in this opening event some time ago. Ok Corral franked the recent form of Nico’s mount yesterday at Kempton and there seems little (if no) reason to take on Nicky’s progressive seven-year-old this afternoon.  I fancy ROCKPOINT to chase the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 14 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won five of the last eight contests.  Ten of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Whatswrongwithyou (soft)

1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured seven of the last fourteen contests with BASTIEN being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Alan King is back among the winners (under both codes) and with a half decent conditional jockey aboard (rider of five winners thus far), Alan’s three time winner should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.  To expect any of the other horses in the field to cope with BARTERS HILL if back to his best would be fanciful in the extreme and with money coming for the favourite on the exchanges overnight, it’s impossible to ignore his claims.  The other potential winner in the line up is KING UTHER from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last nineteen years.  13 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Barters Hill (2 x soft)

2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the sixteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts.  Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. SAPHIR DU RHEU is the vintage representative this year and it’s worth looking at the weights because although this is not a handicap, the penalties incurred by NATIVE RIVER brings the pair exactly on the marks that would meet in such a contest.   Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008.  Seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence but eight-year olds NATIVE RIVER and CLOUDY DREAM could narrow the recent margins. I will simply offer all three runners into the Placepot equation and hope that the best horse wins on the day.  The best horse is Native River but do prices of 4/5 over 9/2 over Saphir Du Rheu under the terms and conditions accurately weight up their chances?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

3/4—Native River (2 x good to soft & soft)

3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is POLITIOLOGUE with seven-year-olds having won three of the last four renewals.  That said, ALTIOR could still be viewed as the most underrated horse in training despite media attention, as Nicky Henderson’s High Chaparral gelding has won on his last eleven assignments, only having tasted defeat twice in his career following fourteen races.  His quote of 8/13 (Bet365) would have ‘probability factor types’ reaching for the phone/mouse in all…..probability!
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last eighteen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. 16/19 market leaders reached the frame.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winner in the ‘Game Spirit’:

1/2—Altior (soft)

1/2—Valdez (good)

3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) four years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now.  I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later.  Proving that I am not swayed by prices either way, last year’s successful 3/1 market leader was the first name on my team sheet!  50 of the last 60 horses to have claimed Placepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 13 of the last 15 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last eighteen gold medallists, the trainer not having been represented every year for good measure. Gary Moore has snared three of the last ten renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five and six-year-olds have equally shared the last ten contests. Taking all the stats and facts into account my ‘short list’ comprises of LALOL, SILVER STREAK, IRISH ROE and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference.  If there is a dark horse at 33/1 in the field which could blow the weight trend apart, MOON RACER fits the bill.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst eleven of the last nineteen market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:

3/3—High Bridge (2 x good to soft & soft)

2/2—Jenkins (good & sfot)

1/6—Remiluc (soft)

1/2—Pappy Kay (good to soft)

4.10: IBIS DU RHEU could outrun his 10/1 quote this morning from my viewpoint with DUKE DES CHAMPS and REIGNING SPUPREME looking to be the potential party poopers if the Paul Nicholls raider is to be denied.  Either way, don’t expect that 10/1 quote to last too long this morning.  The 5/1 trade press call about DUKE DES CHAMPS is also looking generous at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame behind the 5/1 winner which was the first horse mentioned in my analysis.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

12 runners—Nicky Henderson (9/32 +12) – 46/177 – slight profit

6—Paul Nicholls (1/17 – loss of 12) – 25/160 – loss of 31

4—Alan King (2-19 – loss of 12) – 20/159 – loss of 60

4—Ben Pauling (2/18 – loss of 8) – 9/40 – loss of 5

3—Philip Hobbs (3/11 +6) – 24/122 +60

3—Jamie Snowden (0/4) – 1/20 – loss of 15

2—Sue Gardner (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2

2—Tom George (1/8 – loss of 5) – 6/69 – loss of 38

2—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 2/39 – loss of 26

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/5 – loss of 1) – 3/23 – loss of 6

2—David Pipe (3/9 +13) – 16/99 +1

2—Colin Tizzard (2/14 – loss of 4) – 12/81 – loss of 20

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £23.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £3.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Wolverhampton: £87.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £122.50 - 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 17th January

NEWBURY – JANUARY 17

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£5,155.70 (7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 3 (Percy Street), 7 (Friday Night Live) & 1 (Final Choice)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Ok Corral) & 12 (Whatswrongwithyou)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Saint Calvados) & 3 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Indy Five), 5 (You Say What), 10 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Two Smokin Barrels)

Leg 5 (3.30): 11 (Kupatana) & 2 (Lady Of Lamanver)

Leg 6 (4.05): 7 (Morning Vicar), 8 (Up To No Good) & 1 (Baddesley Knight)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.20:  I cannot ignore the fact (for openers) that James Bowen has ridden five winners for Nicky Henderson this season from just nine opportunities whereby the booking of this year’s sensational ‘newcomer’ for PERCY STREET catches the eye in no uncertain terms.  FRIDAY NGHT LIVE could be anything entering the handicap division for the first time, whilst FINAL CHOICE gets the marginal nod over The Green Ogre for the third spot in my permutation.  The record of Paul Henderson here at Newbury (0/32) suggests that the price of Doitforthevillage is plenty short enough at 7/2 at the time of writing.  If the nine-year-old wins I lose, that’s racing.
Favourite factor: The opening event on the Newbury card is a new race with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/3—Final Choice (good to soft)

 

1.50:  Local trainer Nicky Henderson secured the first running of this event twelve months ago and the Seven Barrows handler saddles a strong contender in proven soft ground winner O K CORRAL who only contests his fourth race, despite being an eight-year-old.  There have obviously been lots of problems relating to Nicky’s Mahler gelding though fortunately, owner ‘JP’ has a few quid in the bank to take care of such individuals.  Nicky throws a spanner in the works however, having also declared WHATSWRONGWITHYOU who has handled this type of ground plenty well enough in the past to suggest that the seven-year-old should not be merely passed off as the ‘second string’ of the two inmates.  What’s Occurring is fancied to run into a place (probably at a respectable distance behind the front pair) at a double figure price.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 9/4 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position last year by sneaking a bronze medal.

 

2.25: As suggested so many times already by this columnist, Harry Whittington remains one of the underrated trainers in the sport from my viewpoint, a comment that will hopefully be endorsed today by another victory for his heavy ground course and distance winner SAINT CALVADOS.  Although only two runners finished the course when scoring at the first time of asking in this green and pleasant land, SAINT CALVADOS is now a winner of four of his five starts and should be followed until beaten according to yours truly.  That said, his three rivals here are all entitled to take their respective chances, the pick of which will arguably prove to be TREE OF LIBERTY given the ground on which Kerry Lee’s raider improved a fair few pounds the last day when scoring at Ludlow when making his debut for the yard.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Saint Calvados (heavy)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.00: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst eight-year-olds have secured four victories during the same period. Proven soft ground winner INDY FIVE boasts ticks in both of the trend boxes and with trainer David Dennis having saddled six of his last 21 runners to winning effect (level stake profit of 25 points during the period), David’s progressive dual winner can take this hike up in class in his stride.  Others to consider include fellow vintage raider YOU SAY WHAT (David Pipe secured a 14/1 double on the corresponding card three years ago) and HORATIO HORNBLOWER whose course victory dilutes the negative weight factor to a fashion.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to TWO SMOKIN BARRELS.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Horatio Hornblower (good)

 

3.30:  Nicky Henderson will be looking to make amends for last year’s beaten odds on favourite who was cruising through to lead at the business end of the contest before falling with the prize at his mercy.  Nicky saddles KUPATNA this time around and though the price will not be as ‘skinny’ as those on offer last year, Nico’s mount will be plenty warm enough following a half decent victory ‘between the flags’ ten months ago.  LADY OF LAMANVER is not holding up too badly in the market against Nicky’s hot pot overnight in all honesty and having run a couple of good races under soft conditions before now, Harry Fry’s raider should figure prominently, though the six pound concession to KAUATANA could prove to be a tough ask.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite snared a bronze medal alongside a toteplacpot position before last year’s 4/9 looked like scoring in facile fashion before coming down two from home.

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won both renewals thus far, albeit vintage representatives have accounted for 55% of the total number of runners via just the two contests.  Vintage representatives are 5/6 to land the treble between them before ‘form’ is taken into account, with the pick of the relevant sextet on this occasion likely to prove to be MORNING VICAR and UP TO NO GOOD.  The horses hail from the highly successful local yards of Nicky Henderson and Warren Greatrex and it will be something of a shock if both horses fail to finish in the frame.  That said, horses who are not going to win at the first time of asking are often ‘looked after’ by riders on the run to the line whereby I am taking out insurance on BADDESLEY KNIGHT who only just lost out in a three way fight at Fontwell on his first day at school, with the fourth horse finishing well adrift of the trio.  Conditions will be much softer on this occasion however whereby another Placepot position might please the relevant connections well enough in what should prove to be an informative contest.

Favourite factor:  Detective are still searching for the two market leaders to date who both missed out on Placepot positions at odds of 6/5 and 15/8.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (7/25 +10) – 222/1096 – loss of 92 points

4—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 10/108 – loss of 36

4—Seamus Mullins (0/2) – 10/161 +18

3—Warren Greatrex (0/6) – 14/97 – loss of 9

3—Kerry Lee (0/1) – 2/10 +3

3—David Pipe (2/6 +9) – 39/281 +19

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/3) – 10/91 – loss of 17

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 0/32

2—Emma Lavelle (0/6) – 13/198 – loss of 88

2—Charlie Mann (0/1) – 15/220 – loss of 92

2—Gary Moore (0/7) – 22/365 – loss of 65

2—Ben Pauling (2/13 – loss of 6) – 9/38 – loss of 3

2—Fiona Shaw (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2

2—Robert Walford (0/2) – 2/14 –loss of 9

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Market Rasen: £11.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £39.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £47.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th December

NEWBURY - DECEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,747.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 6 (Nayati) & 2 (Acaro)

Leg 2 (12.40): 6 (Royal Ruby) & 2 (First Flow)

Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Saint Calvados), 3 (Chirico Vallis) 4 (Remiluc) & 2 (Got Away)

Leg 4 (1.50): 8 (Brave Eagle) & 5 (Huntsman Son)

Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Knockanrawley), 9 (Henllan Harri) & 7 (Wuff)

Leg 6 (3.00): 5 (Way Back Then), 6 (Dame Rose) & 3 (Mullachys Hill)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Alan King’s runners are still blowing a little too hot and cold for my liking but the trainer has saddled four winners of late and with support coming in for his soft ground flat winner NAYATI, it would be churlish to ignore the claims of Wayne Hutchinson’s mount, especially from a Placepot perspective.  Robert Walford has been on a crest of the wave by comparison whereby I have little (or no) hesitation in nominating ACARO as the main threat.  Special Relation might have to be a well above average type to return with a win after a debut fall at Market Rasen, irrespective of how well he was travelling at the time.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include six successful favourites from a win perspective.

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson has dominated this event to the point where Nicky’s record is surely the best record in any race under either code.  Nicky comes into the race on a seven timer having won nine renewals during the last decade.  It’s surprising to find that the only horse which failed to win during the sensational run was My Tent Or Yours back in 2012.  Nicky saddles ROYAL RUBY this time around, with connections seemingly having Kim Bailey’s soft ground Lingfield winner FIRST FLOW to beat.  Given the results in recent years, I will be startled if the differential in prices (6/4 – 5/2) was in place by flag fall, especially with the projected favourite (First Flow) having to give ROYAL RUBY five pounds.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last nine renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.  Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion, whilst eight favourites have secured Placepot positions during the longer period.

 

1.15: Harry Whittington remains an unbelievably underrated trainer in my book (two of his last three runners have won) and his French import SAINT CALVADOS would be the call if asked to name the winner of this contest.  A winner of three of his four races on the continent, Aidan Coleman’s mount would be the call but given that this is the ‘win only’ event on this Placepot card, I would not like to miss out on what might prove to be a really good dividend by ignoring the other three contenders.  That said personally, I will be adding an additional wager by banking on SAINT CALVADOS in this event (alongside the other runners = 72 additional bets), just in case Harry works the oracle again.
Favourite factor: This was deemed to be a new race on the card three years ago as the contest was reduced in trip, with the even money favourite finishing last of the three finishers the first year, before the following 5/2 market leader made amends.  Layers had the last laugh twelve months ago however, when the 5/6 favourite was the only horse in the field not to complete the course.  It should not be forgotten that Cue Card won this race back in 2011 over the additional quarter of a mile as the race was contested in those days.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/5—Remiluc (soft)

 

1.50:  Nicky Henderson’s second (and last) runner on the card is BRAVE EAGLE who is attempting to become the fifth consecutive five-year-old winner of this event.  Dropped a couple of pounds now, Nico’s mount will have few better chances of building on a previous soft ground victory, with HUNTSMAN SON nominated as the main danger.  Nick Williams has his team in fine order (as is so often the case) whereby the chance for Diable De Sivola demands plenty of respect.  That all said, there will be worse outsiders on the card than proven soft/heavy ground performer Sir Antony Browne.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners at 11/8 & 13/8) via five contests.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Sir Antony Browne (good to soft)

1/2—Wilde Blue Yonder (good to soft)

1/2—Theligny (good to soft – winner of this race last year)

 

2.25: The 'Mandarin' is nothing like the race it once was with six-year-olds having won three of the last six contests, though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  From a Placepot perspective, there seems no other place to start than with the only course winner in the line up namely KNOCKANRAWLEY, especially with trainer Kim Bailey having won with five of his last seventeen runners which at this time of year, is always a decent ratio to boast.  Having finished ‘in the three’ in 7/8 races on soft ground, KNOCKANRAWLEY has not matched that effort once via three assignments under heavy conditions, though Kim’s nine-year-old should reach the frame today at the very least in this grade/company.  HENLLAN HARRI disappointed in the ‘Badger’ at Wincanton the last day but this is likely to be run at something of a ‘married man’s gallop’ which will suit this dour stayer.  A heavy ground winner in the past, ‘Harri’ is marginally preferred to WUFF as the main threat to the tentative selection.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last seven renewals, though they were the only market leaders to secure Placepot positions during the period.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Mandarin’:

1/2—Knockanrawley

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of the Challow Hurdle, with only an outsider to represent their cause this time around, namely MULLACHYS HILL.  Warren Greatrex is not the type of trainer to casually ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby the declaration is taken seriously by yours truly, especially as underhoof conditions will trouble other runners more than this individual I would wager.  More logical winners in the line up (I grant you) include WAY BACK THEN and DAME ROSE.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Dame Rose (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Alan King (1/16 – loss of 11 points)

2—Kim Bailey (1/2 +2)

2—Tom George (0/5)

2—Nicky Henderson (6/23 +8)

2—Philip Hobbs (3/8 +9)

2—Gary Moore (0/11)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

2—David Pipe (1/4 +4)

2—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 +6)

2—Dan Skelton (1/4 +3)

2—Colin Tizzard (2/12 loss of 2 points)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/2)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: Meeting abandoned

Taunton: £42.50 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £279.10 – 2 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced