Tag Archive for: Newbury racecourse

Racing Insights Wednesday 19/01/22

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five-year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the above 4-in-1 report, we also have the daily selection of 'free' races and they are set to be...

  • 2.00 Plumpton
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 2.35 Plumpton
  • 3.00 Newbury

I only really use the TS report for handicaps and my fairly stringent settings have only generated one possible runner for tomorrow...

Dynamite Kentucky looks like he'll go off quite short, so I'm going to look at the last of our four free races, the 3.00 Newbury, which is an 11-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (for the Harwell Trophy) over 2m7½f. The going is said to be Good to Soft and they'll go left handed over 18 fences in a bid to land the £5,882 first prize...

Storm Control likes to set the pace and won back to back stayers' chases at Cheltenham in Nov/Dec of 2020, but has been pulled in three of five since, including both runs this season. Wouldn't be one to trust on form but he is down two classes here.

Landofsmiles went 11121 over fences in a three month spell from March to June last year, but has struggled off higher marks as a result and was beaten by some 50 lengths here LTO. Now down to his last winning mark, but seems out of touch.

Django Django won here over three miles two years ago and disappointed ever since, failing to complete three of his last five and losing the other two by 39L and 33L. Not for me, thanks.

Keep Wondering is two from four over fences and was game when winning at Haydock (C3, 2m6f) on heavy ground last time out, coming late from off the pace to win by half a length. A 3lb rise makes this more difficult but not impossible.

Hawthorn Cottage went 131 over fences last year before disappointing down in trip to a possibly inadequate 2m4f. She was also well beaten (16L) last time out here over three miles, but she was in Listed company that day and could well be seen in a better light down two classes.

The Devils Drop was a more than useful hurdler (3w, 2pl from 9) landing a hat-trick in the summer of 2018, but hasn't anywhere near as successful over fences and lacks consistency. Was a really good runner-up at Wincanton in early December two starts ago, but was pulled up in both races either side of that. Just two places (no wins) from seven over fences so far, he's not my idea of a winner here.

Young Wolf last won a race 16 months ago and has suffered ten defeats since, going down by 65L and 60L in his last two. His mark has plummeted in that time from 142 to today's 120, but I doubt that'll be enough to arrest a poor run of form.

Mellow Ben is on a long (15 races) losing streak over fences, but has made the frame in two of his last three, including finishing third of sixteen in a Listed contest on his last effort, suggesting a possible return to form.

Cuban Pete won on his 2020 seasonal reappearance despite a 227 day absence and he backed that run up with another win four weeks later, but in four races since he has finished second to last twice and failed to complete twice and his jumping has been sketchy.

Wayfinder has only raced 9 times to date and has a win and a place from four over fences, having been a runner-up on chase debut in Oct'20, then winning at Chepstow the same month. He was hampered and brought down on his return from a 409 day absence last month and ran well here for much of 3m2f last time out before fading. Down 3f and 2lbs will help.

Tango Boy won his only bumper and made the frame in half of his six hurdles races with out winning, but has yet to translate that form into this sphere finishing 6th of 10 (36L) and last of 4 (33L) so far. Eased 3lbs but up in class, he's probably not winning here either, but he is an unknown quantity.

Six of these have won over a similar trip and one has won here, but overall their relevant form looks like this...

Landofsmiles' 2020/21 form is the standout there, but we have to remember what poor form he's currently in. Aside from him, Keep Wondering and Hawthorn Cottage are probably the best, although Storm Control is interesting down in class and weight. I mentioned earlier that he likes to race from the front and that's probably a good idea here...

and should also benefit the likes of Hawthorn Cottage.

...whilst the decent return from hold-up horses (IV 1.15) is encouraging for the likes of  Keep Wondering and Mellow Ben.

Summary

There's quite a few here that I've not liked from the initial resumé and I've been mainly interested in Keep Wondering, Hawthorn Cottage, Mellow Ben and Wayfinder.

Keep Wondering & Hawthorn Cottage then ticked boxes on Instant Expert and pace, Mellow Ben hasn't won for ages, but looks like coming into form and ran really well in a higher grade LTO, whilst Wayfinder ran well for most of his last run, but doesn't score well since.

I think it has to be between Keep Wondering and Hawthorn Cottage and there's probably not much between them. They both rated the same by the assessor, but the latter is dropping two classes and at 8/1 with 888Sport is far more attractively priced than Keep Wondering at 2/1.

I have Hawthorn Cottage as a 6/1 chance personally, so I'll take 888's price and take a small 8/1 E/W bet. I can't back Keep Wondering at 2's and Wayfinder looks short at 4's to 6's. I did fancy a small E/W tickle on mellow ben at 12's or bigger, but 8/1 just doesn't float my boat, so I'll have to play a waiting game there.

 

 

Racing Insights, 15th December 2021

Wednesday's free GOLD feature is the excellent Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

I'm only really interested in the handicap data on the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which when combined with my fairly strict selection criteria often means that I have little or no qualifiers to consider. Wednesday, sadly, is a prime example as I only have qualifiers on the course 1 year handicap tab, as follows...

Thankfully, we also have the following 'free' races of the day to offer you...

  • 12.10 Lingfield
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 5.00 Dundalk
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

If I'm totally honest with you, none of those float my boat either, so I'm going off-piste today and offering you a bonus race and I think that should be whatever is the 'best' race available. A quick look shows that only one UK race on Wednesday is better than Class 3 and that's the 2.00 Newbury, an 8-runner, Listed, 4yo+ Mares' Chase over 3m (after rail movement) on Good To Soft ground, where the following horses will go left handed and tackle 18 fences in the hope of landing the £15,661 prize...

As you'd expect of a Class 1 field, there's plenty of good recent form on show, with only Casablanca Mix and Legends Gold winless in five starts and sadly they're the only two to have fallen in their last five. Silver Forever has won four of five and along with fellow hat-trick seeker Chilli Filli, are the only two LTO winners on display. The former is actually stepping up two classes here, as is Hawthorn Cottage, whilst Legends Gold also moves up a level.

Bridge Native, Casablanca Mix and Win My Wings are the only ones without a win at or around today's 2m7f-3m trip and the first two named are probably arriving in the worst form of the eight runners. Silver Forever is best off at the weights and is the only previous course winner, having scored here over course and distance last time out. That was 41 days ago and that's the longest any of these have waited since their last outing with the other seven having raced in the last 17 to 35 days.

At this point, I'm already prepared to dismiss the chances of Bridge Native on form/no win at the trip and also Casablanca Mix for the same reasons, plus I've reservations about Hawthorn Cottage stepping up two classes after a 19 length defeat as last home of four most recently. So I'm going to prune the field down to five runners...

Chilli Filli won one of her two bumpers, made the frame on 5 of 8 (won 2) over hurdles but has already won 4 of 9 over fences with an additional place finish thrown in. She won a 3m Listed chase at Perth (Momella also ran) on St George's Day before resting for 202 days prior to landing a 3m1f Listed Chase at Market Rasen five weeks ago where she beat Momella, Casablanca Mix & Win My Wings). her record in (non-Novice) Listed chases reads 12F11 and she gets 3m readily. Definite shortlist material.

Momella doesn't quite have the same profile as the one above, but she's more than useful with a 56% career place strike rate, winning 1-in-3 overall including a Listed contest three starts ago, but has run into Chilli Filli on her last two outings, going down by 46 lengths (admittedly eased when beaten) and then by just 2 lengths LTO. They meet again on equal terms, so it's hard to see her avenging those defeats but she shouldn't be too far adrift.

Legends Gold hasn't yet completely managed to transfer her excellent (4 wins plus 3 places from 9) hurdles form over tot he bigger obstacles, but she has made the frame in half of her six efforts, winning once (a Class 4 Novice on chase debut Oct'20) She ended last summer as a runner-up in a 14-runner 3m4f Class 3 contest at Ffos Las before returning to action five weeks ago at Bangor to finish 3rd of 14, beaten by just over 5 lengths in a 3m Class 2 handicap after being off track for 223 days. She's entitled to improve for that run, but whether she can make the leap to challenge at Listed class is under review.

Silver Forever completes my five 'possibles' and she comes here looking like the one to beat based pourely on results. She made her debut in November 2018 and by the time we hit the second week of January 2020, she had finished 1312 in four bumpers (the defeats were in Listed races, so no disgrace) and 1131 over hurdles (the last two at Listed class). So never out of the frame in eight starts, winning five times. She was then off track for 670 days prior to reappearing here over course and distance six weeks ago when she won a 2-horse race by six lengths on her chase debut receiving 7lbs in weight from the other 10/11 jt fav. That was a Class 3 contest, so more required here, but she is proven at Listed class in other spheres. The only real question marks revolve around whether that race has taken much out of her and that it was also her only run beyond 2m4f.

At this point, I'd have to say that Silver Forever handles a more competitive race than LTO and can step up in class, then she looks the one to beat with Chilli Filli probably next best, but let's look at the five runners' overall NH form via Instant Expert...

...whilst pretty much backs up my idea of the 1-2, whilst over fences...

...Chilli Filli looks even stronger than her general overall record. Momella has some amber, but there's nothing much to get excited about away from the suggested pair. The pace scores from these runners' last four outings suggests that there'll not be much hanging about today...

...which isn't probably a bed plan, as those racing up with the pace or leading have done very well...

...whilst the hold-up scores might give some confidence to Win My Wings, but I fear she's the weakest of my five.

Summary

From start to finish the pairing of Silver Forever and Chilli Filli have ticked all the boxes and I find it difficult to look beyond those two as my first two home. I had them in that order on my own workings and was expecting to see prices around 2/1 and 15/4 respectively and I'm not too far out with the bookies going 15/8 and 10/3 from the first two (Bet65 & Hills) to show their hand.

Silver Forever's 15/8 is 94% of my expected/hoped for odds, whilst Chilli's 10/3 is an 88% ratio, so the fav is looking like the best value. I'm not normally a fan of backing sub-2/1 shots, but 15/8 might end up being a good price, whilst I've my fingers crossed for the exacta/forecast.

Those wanting to play the trifecta/tricast would probably want to add the 13/2 third fav Momella into the mix. She's too short for me as an E/W bet, but she was third best on my figures, it's just boringly coincidental that my 1-2-3 is the bookies' 1-2-3, but hey, they can'ty always be wrong, can they? 😉

Racing Insights, 23rd October 2021

The Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report is Saturday's offering and it brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following 'free' races...

  • 1.34 Kelso
  • 1.45 Cheltenham
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 2.40 Doncaster
  • 3.19 Kelso
  • 8.00 Chelmsford

I set fairly stringent criteria for my settings on the (TJC) report, so that I'm not wading through too many possibles and Saturday is no exception, as I've just the one to consider...

Storm Control has a good record at Cheltenham, but it's not the type of race I normally play in (race selection is massively important), so I'm reverting to the 'free' list, where the third of them catches the eye. It's easily the best standard of race and we've extreme ground conditions too, so with those factors in mind, we're Berkshire bound for the 2.35 Newbury, a 7-runner, Group 3, flat race for 3yo+ horses over a mile and a half on heavy (soft in places) ground with almost £40k heading towards one of the following...

Now, I'm expecting bottom (and best off) weight Siskany to be a short (possibly odds on) favourite, but that doesn't always pan out in testing conditions and even if he does win, there's a chance of an E/W play or forecast to be had.

Extra Elusive won a couple of Gr 3 races in August last year, but has struggles of late finishing last of four and last of six in two Gr3 races over 1m2f/1m2.5f before running 7th of 8 in Listed company last time out. This is tougher, even if he has won here before and has also scored over this trip (albeit on A/W). No heavy ground form, but 2 from 7 on soft and...

Ilaraab is a course winner over 1m2f, has won over this trip and is two from four on soft ground, but hasn't tackled heavy yet. Won six handicap races on the bounce from July 2020 to May of this year, but hasn't made the leap to Class 1 racing just yet, but has been third in successive Gr3 contests, including going down by just over a length here at Newbury over 1m3f two starts ago. By Wootton Bassett, whose progeny have done really well on the Flat...

Max Vega is quite lightly raced after just ten starts in over two years and has been running well enough without managing to win any of seven starts since opening his career with finishes of 211, culminating in a Gr3 success over 1m2f at Newmarket in October 2019. Seven runs and two years later, he needs to get back into the winners' circle, but I doubt that's happening here, even if his best form on been on softer than good. No heavy form either.

Morando dead-heated in this very contest way back in 2018 and landed two more Gr3 prizes since, but has also been beaten fifteen times since and is winless in ten over the last two years. He did make the frame on his only heavy ground start and is 2 from 8 on soft and with his yard amongst the winners and his jockey liking this venue, he might get involved for the minor honours...

Wells Farhh Go won four of his first seven starts, including 2 x Gr3 and a Listed contest, but hasn't performed to that level for well over two years now. Add in a 0 from 2 on soft and no heavy ground runs allied to his regular jockey being deployed elsewhere and it's hard to fancy a horse beaten by 17 lengths at Ascot (8L behind Ilaraab who was third) three weeks ago.

Inchicore has heavy ground form from landing a Class 4 handicap over today's trip at Leicester just over a year and she won over 1m5f on soft at Lingfield this May too. Her best run to date was a 6 length defeat (5th of 7) on her Gr3 debut at York two weeks later and her only other run since saw her 6th of 7 in a Listed event at Chester, but in her defence, she was only beaten by just over two lengths when a little one-paced over 1m6½f but would need to improve to get near today, as she's well out at the weights.

Siskany is only 3 yrs old, receives weight all round and is well in at the weights. He's rated (OR) at 111, 5lbs better than next best Ilaraab but carries some 6lbs less and an 11lb swing takes some undoing. His form has been excellent since finishing fifth on debut last September, he is 111421 with a length and a quarter his worst defeat. Admittedly all his form is at handicap level, and he's only 1 from 3 at Class 2, but has a win and a place from two soft ground runs (no heavy form) and won over today's trip last time out. Yard stats are excellent...

So whilst Siskany appeals due to his number of wins etc, he's unproven at this level and on heavy ground, which might make him vulnerable if any of the others are better suited and the easiest/best way of checking is via Instant Expert, of course...

The field only has two heavy ground runs between them (Inchicore won, Morando was placed), so I've expanded to include soft ground form and although his best form came a while ago, Morando ticks more boxes than the rest, whilst over the past couple of years alone...

...you'd probably look at Ilaraab, who is drawn in stall 2 just outside the fav Siskany, but is that a good place to be here for this contest?

I'd say probably not, as stall 5 aside, you're better off higher than box 2. You can, of course, overcome the draw over such a lng distance by approaching the race with the correct tactics and our pace analyser suggests...

...that being up with the pace is the best bet. An average pace score of 3.00 or higher (the higher the better) would be deemed advantageous here and here's how our field have raced in their last few outings...

Combining pace & draw creates this heatmap...

...favouring the mid to high drawn leader/prominent runner, so had Wells Farhh Go and/or Extra Elusive been in any kind of form, then they'd certainly be of interest. I don't think either are good enough to get near, which would then be another positive for Siskany.

Summary

Siskany should win this, BUT on Class 1 debut with no heavy ground experience and a far from perfect record at Class 2, there's no way I want to be backing him at a current best price of 10/11. I'm not particularly interested in laying him either, though, so let's set the fav to one side.

After that, I've not much between Ilaraab and Morando ahead of a fairly modest bunch for a Gr3 contest, if truth be told it's little better (if any better) than a bog-standard Class 2 handicap, a level where Ilaraab has 4 wins from 5 including a win here and 2 from 2 on soft ground, so Ilaraab is the preferred option for forecast purposes.

I can get 4/1 about Ilaraab, so a 20% chance as opposed to the assumed/implied 52+% for the fav, so I'm actually going to take the 4/1 on offer here, as it seems good value.

As for Morando, I think he might just miss out, but at 10/1 might still be worth a small E/W or place only saver bet.

Racing Insights, 22nd October 2021

Friday's free feature is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

In addition to this report, we also have the following full free races...

  • 3.40 Cheltenham
  • 3.58 Newbury
  • 4.45 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 7.45 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Newcastle

My fairly exacting criteria for the (H4C) report have only produced one qualifier for Friday...

...but he's certainly worth a second/deeper look especially from a place perspective. He tends to come late, so providing he isn't too far off the pace, could go well. I'd want around the 4/1 mark about him, so fingers crossed.

My focus today, however, falls on the second of our free races, because we'll have testing conditions for the 3.58 Newbury, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo, flat handicap over 1m5½f on heavy ground...

A decent looking contest where all ten runners have won at least once in their last six races, of which 4 are LTO winners. Interestingly, none of the ten ran at Class 3 last time out and all four LTO winners are stepping up in class here. In total, we have two moving from Class 5 to Class 3, six move up from Class 4, whilst two drop from Class 2, where Crema Inglesa was a runner-up LTO.

The top three on the card all return from a two month break, but the other seven have all raced in the last 11-20 days, we've no previous course and/or distance winners and there's little to write home about in terms of positive trainer and/or jockey form.

It may well, as it often does, depend on who handles conditions the best. Before taking conditions into consideration, I'd have expected the likes of Oman, Solent Gateway and Secret Shadow to be the ones to beat and Thunder Ahead & the yard-changing Glen Again to be amongst those to avoid, but the toolkit will tell us more, starting straight away with...

...Instant Expert, the quick/unique overview of how these runners have performed previously in similar conditions...

I changed the going, because only Oman (1 place from 2 runs) and Downsman (2 wins from 4) had competed on heavy ground previously, so I've broadened it to see how they've fared on soft ground too...

Quite a few have gone well on soft or worse ground, not many have tackled this grade but Solent Gateway is a Class 2 winner. I extended the distance parameters a little to get more of a feel about stamina etc and Oman scores well here. At the weights, I'd be most concerned about Crema Inglesa, Reverend Hubert and Secret Shadow at half a stone or more above their last winning mark.

The draw here for this left handed track has tended to favour those drawn lowest for win purposes, but low draws fail to make the frame as often as those drawn mid to high...

And stall by stall...

...which would seem to be a positive for Crema Inglesa and Oman.

As for pace here, over 12 to 14 furlongs on wet ground, only prominent runners have fared well from a win perspective...

...and with this group running as follows in their last four outings...

...those stats would seem to favour the top six on that list, who all have at least two recent prominent runs (3) in their last four efforts.

Summary

At this point, I'd then apply a kind of totting up procedure to see whose name is getting mentioned the most in positive terms and there's not much getting away from my initial pick, Oman. Two wins and two places from his last five , seven top three finishes in a row prior to a 9th of 22 last time out. That was a much better race than this, he's down in class, he'll enjoy the mud, he's well drawn and he'll be up with the pace.

He's a 4/1 shot in my eyes, so I can't ignore the 13/2 offered by Bet365 at 5.35pm, I'm on Oman.

I also liked Secret Shadow from the start and I still like her, but not at 10/3. She has every chance of making the frame, of course as she's a winner at 1m6f, likes soft ground and gets on well with jockey Hayley Turner, but an 8lb rise and a step up in class might be her undoing. And for my other placer, I'm ditching Solent Gateway in favour of Downsman. The latter is in arguably better form, has won his last two heavy ground races, has won under today's jockey and has two wins and a place from four in cheekpieces. A rise in class and weight might, like Secret Shadow, stop the 5/1 Downsman from winning, but he's sure to be involved.

Racing Insights, 24th August 2021

Our 10/3 shot Blue Moonrise duly obliged at Chepstow earlier this afternoon, getting up by a length and a half. A couple of non-runners reduced our price to just shy of 5/2, but that's still far better than the final SP of 5/4!

And now to Tuesday, where feature of the day is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing and the win stats look like this for Tuesday...

In addition to The Shortlist, we also have the following free 'races of the day' for all readers...

  • 3.20 Musselburgh
  • 5.25 Bellewstown
  • 5.45 Newbury
  • 6.25 Bellewstown
  • 7.15 Newbury

The first of the two Newbury races above looks interesting, it's a decent standard with a likely short-priced fav, meaning we can either disprove the validity of the favouritism or we can find a reasonably priced placer to chase the fav home. To which end, I'm looking at the 5.45 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 2, Flat handicap for horses aged 3 and over. The trip is a straight mile, the ground is said to be Good (Good To Soft In Places) and a first prize of £10,260 awaits one of the following...

I'm going to try do one of my quick process of elimination runthroughs here (they take longer to type out/illustrate than it actually takes to process!), so firstly I want to take three straight out on form. This is a Class 2 race with plenty of recent winners, so Afaak (winless in 9 since 19/06/19), King Ottokar (winless in 10 since 12/04/19) and King Carney (winless in 7 since 21/10/19) are all bypassed at the first hurdle, leaving my racecard as follows...

A much more workable nine as we head towards Instant Expert...

I won't actually discard any from this image alone, but I do have reservations about You're Hired being 1 from 11 on good ground and Bear Force One being 0 from 6 in this grade, but when I switch from win to place stats...

...Bear Force One doesn't even have any green there, so if he's not placing, he's not winning, so he's out of the running for me too, leaving eight runners in stalls 2-5, 7-9 and 12. And the draw stats here tell us...

...that being drawn higher than 11 isn't a great place to be (not good for Chance) and that if anywhere is favoured, it happens to be stall 5 (You're Hired), whilst stall 7 (Power of Darkness) seems to be a good spot for making the frame.

The pace stats suggest that the higher the pace score the better...

...which would appear to favour the likes of You're Hired (4 scores of 3/4), Percy's Lad and Troll Peninsula, based on their recent runs...

...and when we combine pace and draw, we get this heatmap...

...which probably favours the likes of Percy's Lad, You're Hired and Power of Darkness.

We've still got eight 'in the mix', so at this point I'd take a closer but quick look at each prior to making a decision.

Imrahor took three Novice races to get off the mark in a Class 5 contest over a mile last September, but has struggled in a couple of Class 1's since. Off track for over nine months now, he could be rusty and an opening handicap mark of 90 doesn't leave much room for error. he was last of 12 in the Darley at HQ last October and that field is only 2 from 32 since.

Itkaann wears first-time cheekpieces here in a bid to eke a bit more from a horse that has recently been close, but not close enough in defeats of less than two lengths in three of his last four starts. Sadly, he's still on the same mark as those four defeats and now steps up in class. Close but close enough beckons again, I fear.

Percy's Lad had a great season finishing 112 in three starts, including a Class 2 win and a defeat by just a length in the Gr3 Horris Hill Stakes. Unfortunately he hasn't kicked on from there, regressing if anything as 6th of 7 and last of four in a pair of Newmarket Listed contests. Improvement needed.

You're Hired was 0 from 6 over a 54-week period prior to landing a 1m, Class 3 handicap at Bath at the end of June two starts ago, but struggled again next/last time out finishing fourth of six, beaten by five lengths at Newmarket. In his defence, he was up 2lbs, up in class and up in trip by 2f. Class and OR are unaltered here, but the drop back in trip should help him get closer to the places.

Power of Darkness has posted a couple of decent efforts over the last eight weeks, culminating in a 1.25 length victory at Newmarket 11 days ago. He did well to win from the back of the group, staying on strongly and similar would put him in contention, but he's up 5lbs, up in class and prefers quicker ground, so he's not for me here.

Troll Peninsula is the likely shortie here and makes a handicap debut after just three Class 5 outings that saw him a 1.75 length runner-up over 7f at Newcastle before landing a 7f maiden at Redcar by a short head on soft ground. He ten took 156 days off before running and winning in a 1m C5 Novice contest at Kempton at the end of March. He could be something, but could also be nothing. Now up three classes, a mark of 88 might be a severe underestimation, but we just don't know. What we do know is that he has decent turn of foot late on.

Turn On The Charm has been consistent over the last year, finishing either first or fourth in seven starts (3 wins) since finishing third in his first two handicap runs. He might not have enough to land this, but he has every chance of making the places, especially with some bookies paying on the first four home.

Chance certainly has a chance based on his last three UK runs. He returned from 349 days off track to finish a runner-up at Sandown, beaten by just 1.75 lengths last September, prior to going down by just a neck in a 20-runner, soft-ground, Class 2 York handicap. His final run of the season saw him land a Class 3, 1m handicap on heavy ground. He has, of course been off the UK scene for some time, but goes well fresh and has plenty of stamina.

Summary

Troll Peninsula is (as of 4.45pm Monday), the 7/4 favourite with Hills/Novibet and having seen the way he finishes races allied to a fairly low opening mark, I sort of understand the excitement. However, he hasn't faced anything of note today and is up three classes. If he keeps handy in the first 6f, then he probably coats this, but 7/4 just doesn't appeal to me, so I want to find an E/W bet, especially with some firms paying four places.

The ones I like the look of from a place perspective are  the consistent Turn On The Charm, the returning Chance, the usually close but no cigar Itkaann and the dropping in trip You're Hired. I think I like them in that order of preference, but available odds will dictate which (if any!) of them I back.

Only Hills/Novibet had prices up at 4.45pm and they were offering 9/1, 8/1, 9/1 and 22/1 about my four possible placers. How you play it is up to you of course, but I think I'll play all four here to small stakes either E/W or to place on the exchanges. I'm aware that a blanket approach isn't for everyone.

 

Racing Insights, 14th August 2021

Saturday's free feature is the excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats Report (TJC). This report brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

In addition to the TJC, we also have the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 1.00 Newmarket
  • 1.30 Newmarket
  • 1.52 Doncaster
  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 4.20 Ripon
  • 5.10 Bath

I want to look at the 2.20 Newbury today, as it's clearly the best of the free races and despite Hukum looking a very warm favourite, there could be the scope for a decent priced E/W bet or a chance of a forecast etc.

Before I do that though, fans of the TJC report might be interested in something my setting have thrown up on the 1 yr handicap filter...

There's a good chance that a couple of those might make the frame, so why not have a look at them and see what you think whilst I delve into that 2.20 Newbury race aka the Geoffrey Freer Stakes , which is a Group 3 Flat race open to horses aged three years or older. It is run over a distance of 1 mile, 5 furlongs and 61 yards and these eight runners will compete on good ground to attempt to land a pot just shy of £40k...

It's a decent looking field and I hope for E/W bettors that all eight run here (no conspiracy theories at GGZ). Hukum won this last year and will probably be very short priced to repeat the feat. He's between 3lbs and 15lbs well in at the weights based on the Official Ratings with bottom weight Recovery Run next best.

So let's start with Hukum himself, he has three wins and a place in Class 1 races and won this very contest last year under today's jockey. Good ground or softer, 1m4f to 1m6f within two months of his last run are his ideal conditions and all are at play here. He was only 3 lengths way in the Gr2 Hardwicke at Ascot before another Gr3 win at York LTO and he's clearly the one to beat despite a 3lb penalty.

Pablo Escobarr had a real purple patch from late Spetember 2018 to the end of July 2020, running consistently well with 3 wins and 4 places from 9 starts culminating in a win in the Gr3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood, but hasn't quite reached those heights this year, failing to make the frame in four outings and he has yet to prove he gets this trip, but...

Red Verdon seemed to toil on the A/W over the winter but has run well in his last couple of races as a runner-up and then an LTO winner, both in Listed contests. This is obviously tougher at this higher level, but he's got plenty of stamina staying beyond two miles, as do offspring of Lemon Drop Kid...

Rodrigo Diaz started a great run of form exactly a year ago containing four wins and three places from seven outings. Admittedly they're all at lower grades than today and he steps up in class here, but his form is unquestionable. He's no Hukum and he's probably not getting near the fav, but if maintaining his progression could very well make the frame here.

Sleeping Lion won a Class 2 handicap over 2m at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance back in April which was also his debut for his new yard, but hasn't really kicked on since and was some five lengths behind Rodrigo Diaz last time out. He looks like he might struggle here on Class 1 debut and others are preferred for the places.

Without A Fight won at this meeting last year in a Class 5 novice contest and although he progressed far enough to land a Class 2 handicap at Haydock last September, that appears to have become his ceiling and his last two runs have been disappointing going down by 14.5 and 11 lengths respectively. I'd be surprised if he featured in the shake-up

Golden Pass, however, might still be improving and with 4 wins and 2 places from her 7 starts, has yet to run a bad race. She was game when digging deep to land a Listed contest last time out, rallying late on after being headed inside the last of 12 furlongs and eventually pulled three quarters of a length clear of the runner-up. She's up in quality and trip here, but she's in great form and looks gutsy. Definite place potential for an in-form yard...

Recovery Run also hails from a yard in good health right (details below) and although not an obvious winner here, the fact that he's second best off at the weights is interesting as he carries at least half a stone less than his rivals. He has already made the frame in 7 of 11 starts, winning three times and was beaten by less than two lengths in a Gr3 at Newmarket towards the end of the 2020 season. He might not quite be ready for this standard, but his yard is in really good nick...

*

At this point, I still think it's Hukum's race to lose, but I've still plenty who look capable of joining him in the frame, but I wouldn't expect that to include the likes of Sleeping Lion or Without A Fright.

Instant Expert shouldn't need any introduction by now, but if you're unsure, do consult the User Guide within the My Geegeez section or email me. Like all brilliant ideas, it's actually quite a simple overview of past relative form. I've arranged it in draw order today so we can see the likelier runners have been placed...

Red Verdon is interesting across a few angles, especially the going and he''l have the rail to assist, then there's the odd splash of green (but plenty of red) until you get to stalls 6 & 7 where Hukum (proven across all spheres) and Golden Pass are berthed. The latter has done well from a small number of runs at going/class and she could be the main threat based on evidence so far.

If that's the case, we should check how well drawn she is in number 7 of 8 stalls here. It's actually a small sample size due to the length of race, so I expanded the number of runners to at least give me some workable data...

And essentially, you don't want to be higher than stall 6 to win (0 from 18), but you've as much chance of making the frame (27.77% as pretty much anywhere outside the first three stalls. Thos place figures for stalls 1 to 3 are good news for Red Verdon who showed well on Instant Expert.

So, Red Verdon is drawn well in his battle to threaten the places, but how will he get there?

 Well, the stats say the best chance of winning this race is to run in mid-division or be held up for a run. Leaders haven't fared to0 well, but do make the frame more than any other style. Overall, prominent racers perform poorest of all and the optimum approach to such a race is to be drawn low then run in mid-div, be held-up or lead...

We can look at our eight runners' recent outings and place them onto that heat map to give us a suggestion of how the race might pan out, but remember the pace/draw heatmap is just one of the tools, it's not the be all and end all, nor do the horses' positions on the chart represent a prediction of finishing order. That said, here's how it looks...

It looks like Golden Pass might end up setting the pace, as she did when winning LTO, but that might her a target for those sitting in from a low draw. Hukum looks like he'll get a nice tow into the race by Golden Pass, this keeps him out of trouble ready for a well timed run to the line.

Summary

It's still Hukum for me here. Even money is a fairly unattractive betting proposition, but might end up representing a bit of value if the money comes in. Golden Pass looks set to make the running, but creates a target for the others. I think she's probably second best in the race and at 6/1, the bookies agree.

She's too short for me to go E/W and I expect the place price will be very low, so I'm going back to that low draw to see if there's a placer for me. I don't like Sleeping Lion at all here, so he's out, leaving me with Red Verdon and Recovery Run. I think the former is the better horse, is more proven at grade and trip, but the latter is carrying 10lbs less.

It's a tight call for me, but I'm siding with the 11/1 Red Verdon as my E/W (or place) pick ahead of the 9/1 Recovery Run.

 

Racing Insights, 28th November 2020

I was reasonably pleased with the way today's race panned out. I got the first two home the wrong way round by trying to beat the market and one of the two I though might be involved at a price finished third at 14/1.

Not perfect, but not a disaster and now I switch focus to Saturday, my last piece of the week on a day where the excellent Trainer/Jockey combo report is a free for all, whilst we also open up the following full racecards to all members...

  • 12.00 & 1.36 at Fairyhouse
  • 12.40 & 3.00 at Newbury
  • 1.08 & 3.28 at Doncaster

Matt's recent videos highlighted the importance of shortlisting (something I do regularly for you on this column) and race selection and I couldn't agree more. Faced with the above half dozen races, the one that appeals most is the first of the two at Newbury, which looks a really good contest.

Before I dive in, I'll explain my own race selection here. The Fairyhouse races are a 13-runner chase for lady (mainly 7lb claimers) jockeys followed by an 18-runner maiden. I'm not into conditional jockey chases (irrespective of the sex of the riders), I'm not into races of more than 12 runners and I'm not into maiden hurdles either!

The second Newbury race is an excellent quality of race, but again there are 18 runners, whilst at Doncaster I'm serving a mares' novice hurdle and a bumper : I don't do novice hurdles or bumpers either!

So, partially by default and partially because on first glance it looks a good race, we're going to try and unpick the 12.40 Newbury, a 6-runner, Grade 2, Novices Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good ground worth £17,085 and here's the card filtered by speed rating...

As I often do, I'll work through the card from left to right making notes on the pros and cons of each column, something like...

FORM
Pretty much all of them have plenty of good form in the history, but Hold The Note and One For The Team haven't won for a while, so they'd be negatives here.

CLASS
Positive : Next Destination is the only one not stepping up in class.
Negative : Up 1 class : Southfield Stone. Up 2 classes : Kalooki, Acey Milan, One For The Team, whilst Hold The Note is up three classes

COURSE/DISTANCE
Acey Milan and One For The Team are previous winners here at Newbury and the latter has also won over today's trip, as has Next Destination whilst Kalooki has a course and distance win to his name

TRAINER FORM
All the trainers bar Mick Channon (Hold The Note) are either in good form and/or have good past records here at Newbury.

JOCKEY FORM
Positive : Kalooki, Next Destination & One For The Team
Negative : Southfield Stone and Hold The Note

GEEGEEZ RATINGS
The four with ratings are fairly close together (4th's rating is 90.8% of top rated), whilst the other two have no chasing form to rate : one's a debutant and the other unseated on debut LTO.

With just six to consider, I've no need to discard any right now, but Hold The Note featured in the negatives a little too often for my liking. Perhaps Instant Expert will show him in a better light?

Southfield Stone clearly likes Good ground, which not all chasers do (many prefer some cut in the ground) and he seems happy in these small fields. Acey Milan has 2 wins from 5 at Class 1 (albeit in Listed Bumpers, one of which was here at Newbury) and was a runner-up in a Grade 3 Hurdle this time last year. The 0 from 4 at the trip is a little misleading, though, as he won't lack stamina having won over 3m1f on Soft last time out.

Hold The Note has little there of note, if you pardon the pun, but he did make the frame two of those three Class 1 defeats, including a runner-up finish (bt by half a length) over 3m in another Gr2 Novice chase earlier this year. Kalooki has lots of green albeit from small sample sizes, but his record over these longer trips catches the eye (he was second over 3m on heavy in the one he lost!).

Next Destination is clearly the class horse here, having made half a dozen appearances at Class 1, making the frame every time and winning four of them including 2 Grade 1 successes over hurdles (chase debut today), whilst One For The Team again fails to excite. In fairness, there's plenty of amber, but he's outdone by at least one rival in every column. His highlights are probably 1 win and 1 place from 3 at this venue and a win plus 2 places from four in the distance range.

I'll still not do any discards, as six is very workable, but at this stage, I'd still be reticent about backing Hold The Note and One For The Team is heading in the same direction.

Could the possible pace make-up of the race save them?

Of the 24 races considered, 19 of them (79.1%) have been won by horses who have prominently (33.3%) or led (45.8%) putting Kalooki and Southfield Stone in pole position, so to speak. I think that one of the other four will have to make a move earlier than expected to avoid the pace-setters nicking the race from a long way out, but these jockeys are no mugs, they'll know what they're doing.

At this point, I've seen enough about Hold The Note and One For The Team and I think they'll be the last two home. I also think that this will be too tough for Acey Milan, even though he did win at Aintree last time out. I just feel the jump from beating a 127-rated horse by a length and a half at Class 3 to tackling a Grade 2 is a bit much.

So, as I like it to be, I have three, who are alphabetically...Kalooki, Next Destination and Southfield Stone.

Kalooki has finished 1121 in his last four outings and won a chase here by 12 lengths over course and distance last time out, albeit at Class 3. He was, however, a runner-up at this level two starts ago at Haydock in a Gr2 hurdle contest.

He is 41121 over obstacles including 411 for jockey Richard Johnson, 121 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, 4121 going left handed and 1 from 1 over fences.

Next Destination looks the class horse on paper and has made the frame in all nine starts to date, including his return to action at Wetherby four weeks ago when shrugging off the effects of a 920-day absence to be a runner-up in a Grade 2 hurdle!

His hurdling record reads 111312 including a win over 3 miles, that win at Grade 2 and a couple at Grade 1. He is 11132 going left handed, but is 0 from 2 here in the UK and has never run on ground quicker than soft.

Southfield Stone is ultra-consistent with 14 top 3 finishes from 15 runs, winning six times. He's 1212 over fences this year and was only beaten by three quarters of a length in a Grade 2 in February and has previously won a Grade 2 hurdle.

He likes quick/good ground, has a win and a runner-up finish from two starts with today's jockey, he's happy in these smaller fields, was third on his only previous effort over fences here at Newbury and has finished 11232 in November.

Summary

Any of the three could win this, but I can't back Next Destination at 2/1 with my concerns about this being his chase debut and him needing to recover from the exertions of running so well after such a long lay-off, whilst I think the ground might be too quick for him : it's certainly an unknown variable and I don't like those at 2/1! I think Kalooki might well beat him here if he runs like he did when hosing up here over course and distance last time out on chase debut.

He was well clear that day (12 lengths ahead of a subsequent winner) and although this is a major step up in class, he should come on for the experience and hopefully go well here again at a current price of 11/4, which I think is fair.

And if we're talking about experience, then we have to look at Southfield Stone who I think might just have too much for both of them this time around. The other teo are probably more promising/talented and at 8yrs old, this one has put the miles in. He's a proven jumper, having completed all 15 races he has started and his experience might just see him home. Kalooki's jumping needs to improve here and if the pace charts are right, Southfield Stone will be applying pressure and that might just affect the younger horse.

13/2 looks very fair to me, so I'm siding with Southfield Stone ahead of Kalooki.  

2020 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Trends

Run at Newbury racecourse over 3m 2 1/2f the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is handicap race this gives National Hunt fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities.

We look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 28th November.

Like - Did you know that 16 of the last 18 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger?

 

Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Winners

2019 – DE RASHER COUNTER (12/1)
2018 - SIZING TENNESSEE (12/1)
2017 – TOTAL RECALL (9/2 fav)
2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav)
2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav)
2002 -  GINGEMBRE (16/1)

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends

16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
15/18 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (29 runnings) there have been 14 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 15th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.40 Chester : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and ran on towards finish, not reach leaders) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Amateur Jockeys Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Soft, ground worth £4,523 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting with the racecard and trainer snippets...

and then the Shortlist report gives us three angles of attack today...

So let's start with horse, who is clearly in prime form and seeks a fifth win on the bounce, the Shortlist says he's good at this class, distance and field size, so let's look at his numbers in other areas...

To date, Songkran is 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 7.86pts (+65.5% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.86pts (+120.6%) at sub-5/1 odds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 11.86pts (+148.2%) in races worth less than £5k
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 7.38pts (+105.5%) going left handed
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.38pts (+139.7%) after less than 18 days rest
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) for trainer George Boughey
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) this year
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.43pts (+210.8%) after a win LTO

And now to the trainer, George Boughey, who has the 14 & 30 icons next to his name, suggesting he's got his yard in decent nick. Closer inspection of his strike rates show a consistent 24% to 26% ratio at 7, 14, 30, 60, 90 and 180 day checkpoints, so his recent form is no flash in the pan.

George might not be as high profile as some other trainers, but he's one to keep an eye on, I think as his decent strike rates have yielded good profits, as he is 16 from 54 (29.6% SR) for 75.8pts (+140.4% ROI) this year at an A/E of 1.58 and an IV above 2.60, including of note today...

  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 38.1pts (+105.8%) with male runners
  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 25.5pts (+75%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 32pts (+91.5%) in handicaps
  • 8/25 (32%) for 41.5pts (+165.9%) on the Flat (but not shabby on the A/W either)
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 17.6pts (+135.2%) from LTO winners
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.8pts (+168%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.7pts (+151.5%) in 12-14 runner contests
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 3pts (+43.4%) so far this month
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 0.12pts (+6%) here at Newbury...

...whilst male handicappers at 6-30 dslr are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 24.1pts (+150.5% ROI) including 5/7 (71.4%) for 9.5pts (+135.8%) on the Flat...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

12.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG WON at 11/1 (Held up, headway approaching final furlong, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by three quarters of a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Again we'll start with the racecard information...

...which tells us that we've a 5yr old gelding who was in good form prior to lockdown (last seen just over 4 months ago, but probably would have ran early April), drops in class today and is being ridden by a jockey who has a good recent record for today's trainer, who himself is one of my ones to follow at this track.

Time to be more specific!

The horse was 23122 in his last five starts over trips of 1m1.5f to 1m4f, all at Class 4 bar a narrow defeat at Class 2, so form, trip and class shouldn't be his undoing today. He is, admittedly, unproven on grass, but (a) you can't have everything and (b) that's why he was 6/1 overnight.

Onto the Trainer Jockey 1 Year report (TJ365 as I abbreviate it), pretty straightforward stuff. Luke Morris has a 1 in 4 record for trainer Ed Walker over the last year the 15.73pts profit at Industry SP is boosted to 25.6pts at Betfair SP at an ROI of 44.9%. This includes...

  • 14/41 (34.2%) for 35.1pts (+85.6%) with male runners
  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 26.22pts (+59.6%) in handicaps
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 19.38pts (+57%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 17.24pts (+82.1%) at Class 5

giving us...

which includes...

*

Next up is my cunningly entitled "Newb Flat" angle, which is probably easy to work out ie trainers to follow at Newbury and Ed Walker is one of three whose handicappers I keep an eye out for, because blindly backing them over the last three seasons would have rewarded you as follows...

...a strike rate is excess of 20%, good profit at a rate of almost 85p in the pound and an A/E north of 1.3 is all good news and closer inspection of the 9 winners & 44 runners shows...

  • 6/16 (37.9%) for 21.93pts (+137.1%) at Class 5
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.76pts (+140%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 36.35pts (+279.6%) if fields of 11-13 runners
  • and 3 from 6 950%) for 21.62pts (+360.4%) in June

*

So, I've now covered everything I highlighted from the racecard and there's plenty to go at as usual, enough to hang a bet from indeed, but wait, there's more! As both the TJ365 report and the Newb Flat angle were very successful at Class 5, I might as well share one of my other saved micros with you. It's a logical follow on from the above and you probably won't be surprised to read that...


has generated...

from which...

  • 25/98 (25.5%) for 38.88pts (+39.7%) in sub-£4k contests
  • 22/73 (30.1%) for 57.13pts (+78.3%) during May to July
  • 14/49 (28.6%) for 31.98pts (+65.3%) over trips of 10-12 furlongs
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 14.26pts (+54.9%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 22.93pts (+152.9%) here at Newbury

with


giving

...from which Newbury runners are 2 from 4 and LTO runners-up are 2 from 2...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BoyleSports & Unibet at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!