Tag Archive for: Newbury racecourse

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/12/24

Saturday's racing comes from Catterick, Leicester, Leopardstown, Limerick, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

...and with so much money at stake at Newbury, I really should make that my focus today for six races on good to soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...Spring Note is two from over this track/trip over here including a win in this race last year and has also scored at 2m3f here, but was pulled up before the last here four weeks ago on her seasonal bow. Should come on for the run and the drop back to a favoured trip and down in class. Break My Soul is one of those ideal placepot types with six places from her seven starts to date. Was beaten by just a nose at a higher grade at Ascot two starts ago and jockey bookings suggest she's the yard no. 1 ahead of Spring Note above. First time hood today too.

Panic Attack went really well at Ludlow earlier this month, finishing third on yard debut for Dan Skelton in a Class 2 handicap, despite coming off a break of over 21 months, going down by just over two lengths staying on. Down in class, she could go well here if feeling no ill effects from the comeback run. Sunset Marquesa is lightly raced, but won a Class 4 bumper on debut and made the frame in three Listed bumpers. Was a runner-up on hurdles debut after an eight month break and then won by 11 lengths at Uttoxeter next/last time out. Up in class here, but shows promise and a mark of 114 isn't punitive.

Tour Ovalie has three wins and three places from her eight handicap starts and is 311 this season. She's down in class here, but up another 6lbs for her latest run/win. That said she's still only 13lbs higher than her opening mark from March, so she might not yet be in the handicapper's grip.

All five are more than capable of winning/placing here, but I'm going with (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie.

Leg 2 @ 12.37...Koapey has knocked on the door on both starts to date, finishing as runner-up in a bumper and in a 2m hurdle, both at Ffos Las and he travelled well in both races. The winner of the hurdle contest has made the frame again since, so today could be Koapey's day. La Marquise might however be the one to beat here. She won two of three bumpers before finishing third in a grade 2 one at the Aintree Festival this year. She then took 196 days off but came back in late October to win on her hurdles debut despite being badly hampered and she should come on for the experience.

Wotter Trotter has just one run to date, but showed signs of potential/promise when only beaten by 4.5 lengths on debut at Huntingdon three weeks ago. His jumping was decent enough and he finished well to come home fourth of the ten runners. Bottom weight Star Time gets chunks of weight all round as this 3yo makes a hurdling debut off the back of two Flat wins over 1m2f and 1m4f. This form should help scoot between hurdles, so it's just a case of how he jumps. He's worth considering at what should be a decent price.

(4) Koapey and (8) La Marquise seem to pick themselves, so I think I'll take (11) Star Time as the backup for a bit of value.

Leg 3 @ 1.12...Skycutter is 221 since returning from a 207-day break in early November and beat the re-opposing The Good Doctor by a length and a half last time out. he's up 5lbs for that win but is going really well right now, whilst the runner-up, The Good Doctor, was a further 15 lengths clear of the pack that day on what was his first run for over seven months and was his chase debut. There's more to come from this one and he's 3lbs better off with Skycutter today.

No Risk With Lou has a win and a place from three starts since being fitted with a hood and being ridden more patiently. This former front-runner has been held up in rear on those three races but there's a danger of him getting left adrift here with four of his rivals usually happy to crack on. The Famous Five won a pair of Class 4 handicaps at the end of last season before a 252 day break. He was 7th of 13 at Class 1 on his return and not disgraced in a 12 length defeat and the horses in 9th, 11th and 12th that day have all raced and won since, including Ooh Betty (12th) who scored as recently as yesterday in a race we covered.

(1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five would be my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Go To War looks the yard pick of the two Nicky Henderson runners and he has finished 3112 in his last four starts, going down by just over four lengths at Huntingdon last time out on his return from more than eight months of the track, so he should be ready for this. Mr Bramley was the runner-up in the last two of three bumper runs and has made the frame in all four starts over hurdles, finishing 1131 and was a ready 6.5 length winner at Wetherby a month ago despite just coming back from seven months off.

Mr Hope Street is also in great form with a last five form line reading 11211 with wins at 2m4f to 3m and the defeat was by just half a length on his return from five months off. A mark of 124 is an 8lb rise, but that might not anchor him just yet. Getalead has finished 11815 so far this term and 1115 under today's jockey, 7lb claimer Gearoid Harney. He weakened quite badly off this mark last time out and it may be that he's either in the assessor's hands or he just needs a bit of a break as this will be a sixth race in nine weeks.

I'll leave Getalead out, despite his obvious ability and stick with the more in-form trio of (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street.

Leg 5 @ 2.20...Surrey Quest is rated some 11lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ended last season by getting beaten on the nod in the Class 1 Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. He was then rested for seven months before coming back to achieve another Class 1 runner-up spot, this time at Cheltenham over a trip similar to this one. A good run is expected, but a mark of 139 leaves little room for error. Henry's Friend won at this meeting last year before going on to win at Class 3 and Grade 2 on his next two outings. Hasn't been the same in his two runs this season so far, but battled hard in a 7.5 length defeat over course and distance in the Class 1 Coral Gold Cup last time out and now drops in class.

Brave Kingdom is lightly raced, but is solidly if unspectacularly consistent. He won his sole bumper way back in February 2021 and then finished 131 in his three efforts over hurdles, all inside the last eight weeks of 2021. He was then off track for almost 23 months before winning on chase debut at Plumpton in November of last year. he won again next time out a month later, but was pulled up on his last start in a Grade 2 at Ascot and is of obvious interest with an overall 5 from 7 record and a history of running well after a break. Inch House clearly has potential as results of 4313112 from his first seven starts would show, culminating in a Class runner-up finish last New Year's Day at Cheltenham. Conversely, he ran poorly in two subsequent runs last season and was pulled up here at Newbury last time out on his seasonal reappearance/yard debut. Cheekpieces are applied today and we'll wonder which Inch House turns up.

Hoe Joly Smoke made the frame in the four of the five hurdle races he completed, but didn't manage to win any (23P32) and was a runner-up on chase debut at Uttoxeter in mid-October before going on to break his duck with a soft ground win over 3m½f at Sandown three weeks ago. He's up 7lbs for that win, but still lurks dangerously down near the foot of the weights (gets 12lbs off Surrey Quest for example) and probably/hopefully has more to give.

Surrey Quest's weight means I'll reluctantly omit him from my bet builder and Inch House's inconsistency rules him out for me, leaving me with (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke for this one.

Leg 6 @ 2.55...Bill Joyce has proven tough to beat so far, aside from a poor run in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He had won both his previous bumpers quite comfortably and was was rested for eight months after the defeat. Since then he is two from two over hurdles and landed a Grade 2 at Sandown three weeks ago. Regent's Stroll has yet to taste defeat, winning two bumpers and his hurdles debut. That last run was here at Newbury a month ago where he defied a bad mistake two out to win by almost ten lengths. Significantly up in class and trip here, but the potential is clear to see.

The New Lion also has a similar three from three record after winning a bumper in April and hurdles successes over 2m4f at Chepstow two months ago and here over course and distance a month back. This trip clearly holds no threat to him, but like Regent's Stroll, he also faces a step up in class. Any of the three could win this and they'll probably head the market too, so I'm going to take all three ie (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion in a safety-first approach and if you asked me for a winner, I'd probably go with Bill Joyce, who has won a Grade 2 over a similar trip and who'll probably offer most value.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie

Leg 2: (4) Koapey, (8) La Marquise & (11) Star Time

Leg 3: (1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five

Leg 4: (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street

Leg 5: (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke

Leg 6: (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/12/24

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Kempton, Lingfield, Ludlow & Newbury.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Newbury, where the ground is expected to be good to soft, so let's head there for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...This really looks like Liam Swagger's race to win/lose. He tuned up for hurdling with seven Flat/AW runs over the summer, making the frame on five occasions before winning a Class 2 hurdle first up at Market Rasen in late September and has since landed a Listed race at Wetherby.

If there's going to be a challenge, it will probably come from Believitanducan on hurdle debut. He finished 322 over 1m6f on the Flat in the summer and then showed he'd get this trip with a win over 2m at Beverley in July, whilst Liam Swagger's stablemate Kinetic is also interesting, receiving weight all round. He had a run of form reading 211141 over 1m4f-1m6f in the summer and he now drops in class for his hurdles debut.

I'll take all three here ie (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Beylerbeyi made the frame in 10 of 22 on the Flat/AW, winning four times, including his last run in that sphere at Wolverhampton in October. Things didn't go to plan after a mistake at the third flight of his hurdle debut at Ascot last month, but he'll come on for having had the run. El Rayo's hurdling debut was a more successful affair, finishing third of eleven at Huntingdon, coming off a nine-month break. He was only a length and a quarter off the winner and the runner-up has made the frame again since.

Roysse looks the one to beat here with three solid runs under his belt. After finishing 4th of 17 on debut in a Wincanton bumper thirteen months ago, he then won a bumper here over course and distance in January before taking nine months off. He reappeared last month to finish second (headed late on the run-in by a horse who was a Listed class runner-up 11 days ago) over today's class, track and trip on hurdle debut and there's probably more to come.

Sergeant Fury will need to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Huntingdon 10 days ago, having finished third in both a bumper and on hurdles debut last month, whilst bottom-weight Mistress Emma finally makes her way back to the track some 903 days after winning a bumper at Worcester on debut. She has been injured but her yard (Nicky Henderson) will have schooled her well for a race they have won four times in the last six years.

(8) Roysse is the standout here, but I'll also take a chance with (3) El Rayo and (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Pretty competitive for a six-runner contest where (tempting fate) only Moulins Clermont seems out of the running.

Kyntara has only tackled fences once, when a distant (24L) second of nine at Hereford just over two years ago and hasn't been on a track since falling (when third) in the Grade 1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree in April. Prior to that, though he'd had a good season over the smaller obstacles finishing 11222. Mt Fugi Park makes a chase debut and just a sixth start. He won a pair of Class 4 hurdles first up last season, but the step up to Class 3 and Grade 2 seemed to find him out somewhat, but he stays and likes the mud.

Wrappedupinmay hasn't been seen for almost 11 months since winning a 3m hurdle at Exeter. He had a wind op in the summer and you can expect Paul Nicholls to have him well tuned up for a chase debut. Herakles Westwood does, however, have the benefit of both a recent run and an effort over fences, as he finished second of five on chase debut at Taunton three weeks ago, beaten by just three lengths over 3m despite coming off a 223-day absence. Should have more to give here.

Kintail has also had a recent chase outing, making his chasing bow after 289 days off, when sighted at Warwick six weeks ago. He was last home of three, beaten by almost nine lengths. He'll come on for the experience and the runner-up has already finished second again before winning at Warwick six days ago.

My 1-2-3 here would be (4) Herakles Westwood, (3) Wrappedupinmay & (5) Kintail

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Racing has little respect for price tickets, but Buckna showed signs of justifying his £350,000 sale when second in a 14-runner hurdle at Ffos Las on his Rules debut four weeks ago. He had moved for big money forllowing a PTP win at Kirkistown (IRE) in March and looks useful so far.

Captain Bellamy won a Class 5 bumper on debut, flopped in a Listed bumper and was then third at Class 2 in march. He took eight months prior to last month's hurdles debut where he was second of five at Class 3 behind Skyjack Hijack who stepped up in class to win next time out. The only fly in the ointment from Captain Bellamy's last run is that he was 26 lengths off the winner, but in fairness was 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

De Kingpin was a heavy ground runner-up on his sole bumper outing in March and then finished a solid third of eight at this grade on hurdles debut at Sandown 252 days later, but didn't run to that level next/last time out despite dropping in class, finishing just 5th of 9 as an odds-on fav. I think he's better than that.

This trio are the ones with any discernible 'form' to their names and pretty much pick themselves, but there's an interesting (to me, anyway) debutant in the shape of Nativehill, who hasn't been seen since landing a PTP at Loughanmore in April 2023. He's a half-brother to the useful Bellshill and Chieftain's Choice, he changed hands for £260k after his PTP win and you know that with Nico de Boinville riding for Nicky Henderson that he'll be asked to give everything and I think I prefer his potential to De Kingpin's last run.

So, its (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill here for me.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post here and I don't much like Harper's Brook, even if he did win a Class 2 chase back in February, so that takes me to four contenders...

General Medrano is possibly the one to beat dropping down in class after a comfortable nine length success in a £26k Class 2 handicap over course and distance less than three weeks ago. he's up 10lbs here, but that shouldn't be enough to stop him. Primoz won the first and last of his four hurdles races and scored on chase debut, landing a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby in mid-October off the back of a six-month break. He possibly found 2m4½f too far at Cheltenham last time out and will appreciate the half mile drop in trip here.

Bourbali has stacks of experience after 28 starts, making the frame in half of them including 6 wins. He's 2 from 8 over fences and won most recently at Kempton, making all of the 2m2f and jumping soundly. He tired over 2m5f at the same venue next/last time out, but managed third of seven and will also appreciate the shorter race here. Javert Allen is interesting on just his six outing. He finished 1222 over hurdles, beaten by just three quarters of a length by the useful Lowry's Bar at Wincanton a year ago. He didn't re-appear until six weeks ago, but landed a Chepstow chase over today's trip and I expect/suspect he has more to offer.

I've got this as a two-horse race between (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen with a slight leaning towards the former. If these fail, then (4) Bourbali might edge Primoz out.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...Densworth is inconsistent, but has won 5 of 11 starts. His inconsistency is highlighted by the fact that he has failed to either finish or make the frame in 5 of 11 starts too, but did win by 7.5 lengths in a Class 3 chase at Wetherby a month ago at this class/trip. He's up 9lbs for that win, but if in the same mood, could well again here. The Edgar Wallace made the frame in 5 of 6 bumper/hurdle outings, winning twice and was a winner on chase debut in November 2021. He was placed 1122 over fences last season prior to finishing down the field in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April after which he had seven months off. He looked like needing the run when 4th of 7 at Kempton three weeks ago and should come on again.

Saint Segal has been a useful placepot pick in the past, making the frame in 8 of 18 starts, but hasn't got close to winning a race in nine starts since finishing 112 at the start of his chase career in November '22 to Jan '23. More is required here. Beau Balko is probably a safe one to put on the ticket builder, having only failed to finish in the first three home once in nine starts over fences and that was on debut 15 months ago. Since then he is 22133312 and drops in class today.

I've got this as (5) Beau Balko beating (1) Densworth with (2) The Edgar Wallace preferred to Saint Segal.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2: (3) El Rayo, (8) Roysse & (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3: (3) Wrappedupinmay, (4) Herakles Westwood & (5) Kintail

Leg 4: (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill

Leg 5: (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen

Leg 6: (1) Densworth, (2) The Edgar Wallace & (5) Beau Balko

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24

Saturday's racing comes from Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newbury & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury in addition to a guarantee of £50k at Newcastle...

I do like to be in for a penny, in for a pound, so let's head for the soft ground at Newbury for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.07...The bookies seem to think that this is a four-horse race and I'd be inclined to agree with them.

(1) Sansrisk comes here seeking a hurdles hat-trick having won a Grade 3 race at Down Royal at the start of the month. That race probably wasn't the best Gr 3 you'll see, but she does technically drop in class here and is clearly in good nick. Had a win and a place in her last two bumpers before that pair of hurdles wins too and her jockey is flying right now, making the frame in 36 (50.7%) of his 71 rides over the last month, winning 18 times (25.4%)

(2) Listentoyourheart also comes here seeking a hat-trick of her own after wins at Classes 4 and 2. She also had a win and two silvers from four bumpers and was a very creditable 5th of 16 in a Grade 2 bumper at this year's Aintree Festival. Her most recent win was over today's course and distance and she loos like a horse on the rise.

(4) Jubilee Alpha was a runner-up in that Aintree bumper above three lengths ahead of Listentoyourheart, which suggests that she might go well here today, but we'd have to take both her fitness and her hurdling on trust as she hasn't raced since then, nor has she raced over hurdles, as her only other previous run was a two-length success in a Class 5 bumper at Wincanton ten months ago. Mind you, she's trained by Paul Nicholls, so you know she'll have been well schooled.

(9) Walkadina completes the shortlist here and comes here off the back of both a recent run and a win over hurdles, achieved in an easy 13 lengths success at Uttoxeter four weeks ago despite not having raced for 191 days. It wasn't a great race (Class 4), but the distant runner-up has since won by 11 lengths at the same grade.

Walkadina has every right to improve for her last run, but I feel that she's starting from a lower point than the other three I mentioned, so she's the one to miss out, sadly.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...This looks like a race likely to be dominated by the top half of the card and top weight (1) Fidelio Vallis comes here off the back of a win last time out and a last four form form line reading 2241 since moving to his current yard, all of which is good, but he hasn't raced since winning on New Year's Day and is up 6lbs for that four length success. (2) Le Milos races off a mark 2lbs lower than when he won a Class 1 handicap at this meeting back in 2022, which at the time was his fourth win in five races. A hike in weight put paid to further wins and he has finished 2030075 since, but now finally drops back to a weight we know he can win off, if the old ability is still there.

(3) Twinjets started his chase career this time last year with a decent third of nine at Ascot followed up by a win at Doncaster in December. He looked like needing the run after 288 days off when 5th of 11 at Chepstow last month, but was unlucky to bump into a progressive type last out, finishing second here at Newbury over 2m4f and I suspect the step back up in trip will help. (4) Inch House finished 431 over hurdles before showing a similar progression over fences last year season finishing 3112 before a couple of disappointments. He was only 4th of 5, beaten by 57 lengths here at Newbury over 2m7½f in February and then fell at the first fence at Ayr in April and hasn't been seen since, moving yards during the layoff. Has ability for sure, but probably neds a run to get the confidence back.

(5) Highstakesplayer is a consistent sort having made the frame in 11 of his 16 (3 x NHF, 7 x hrds & 6 x chs) outings, but his chase form is easily the best of the three codes with results reading 111P12 with that run probably his best, finishing as a three length runner-up in a decent Class 1 handicap at Ascot four weeks ago. That was his first run for 194 days, so he should strip fitter for that and he now drops in class. He's only up a pound for that run and has to be considered, as does (6) Genois who generally tends to be there or thereabouts, making the frame in 10 of 19 starts so far, culminating in a Class handicap win at Wetherby at the start of the month despite the 2m3½f trip probably being a bit too sharp for him. He beat the runner-up Galop de Chasse by three lengths that day and that horse was a decent enough third of nine here yesterday.

You can make a case for any of those, but my 1-2-3 would be (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...(1) Califet En Vol made the frame in a five-length defeat on debut in an Ayr bumper in April and then went back to the shed for 205 days before reappearing for a hurdling debut at Kempton 19 days ago, where he absolutely breezed up, winning over today's trip by some fifteen lengths and looks to be another talent off the Nicky Henderson conveyor belt.

(4) The New Lion also only has two runs under his belt and his yard have high hopes for him after a 5.5 length win in a bumper at Market Rasen back in April was eventually followed up 202 days later with a win on hurdle debut at Chepstow a month ago, where he won by five lengths pulling further clear as the line approached. Since that run, the eighth-placed horse has finished 3rd of 8 back over that Chepstow course and distance and the horse in ninth was a 13 length winner at Hereford 18 days ago.

(5) French Ship finished 421 in bumpers, was second on hurdles debut and then won an eleven-runner Class 4 maiden at Chepstow earlier in the month, beating Let It Rain by just over two lengths. These two were some 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse who beat the fourth by 13 lengths. The third has since been a runner-up at Doncaster, whilst Let It Rain won at Wetherby three days ago and whilst all this is good, my preferred option is to take (4) The New Lion to beat (1) Califet En Vol here

Leg 4 @ 1.54...(5) Impose Toi is a model of consistency, making the frame in all seven starts to date, winning a pair of Class 4 handicaps and at Class 3 along the way. He was unlucky not to land a big Class 1 handicap at Ascot last December when he hit the penultimate hurdle and lost ground, resulting in him going down by just a neck and he was a decent 3rd of 19 at Kempton last time in this grade.

(8) Inthewaterside is another consistent sort, whose only failure to make the frame in his seven outings was a five length defeat in this grade at Ascot a year ago. Since that run, he won a Class 3 handicap at Lingfield, was a Class 2 runner-up at Ascot in mid-February and was a solid third of nineteen in a Class 1 handicap at this year's Aintree Festival five lengths behind Kateira who won a Listed race last week. Has had a wind op whilst away from the track and I expect more this season from this one.

(9) Issam is a danger here back up in trip after a creditable 4th of 10 over 2m at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago. This trip should really suit him better as his form over 2m3f to 2m4f reads 2131201. His mark of 129 might not leave much room for error, as his last win was only by a length and a quarter off 125 at a lower class than this, so he'd need things to fall his way, but he should still be in the hunt for a place.

(11) Guard The Moon completes my shortlist as yet another consistent progressive type who always seems to be on the premises. he won two of his three bumper outings and has finished 322112 over hurdles, winning at both Classes 4 and 3. He stepped up to Class 2for the first time at Aintree three weeks ago and went really well for most of the race before being headed between the penultimate and last hurdles, eventually finishing second of nine, 2.5 lengths behind Harbour Lake who went well again three days ago. 3m1f at Aintree seemed to stretch Guard The Moon and the drop back in trip should be a bonus here.

All four stand a really good chance of at least a place, but they can't all finish in the first three and whilst there's not much between them, I'm omitting Issam.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...(1) Salver won his first four over hurdles including a Grade 2 at Chepstow last Christmas and was a decent third of twelve in this year's Gr1 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Hasn't been seen since, so might need the run, but if ready, should go well. (3) Our Champ has won two of his last four, both in Class 2 handicaps, the latest just four weeks ago at Ascot, so he's in good nick. He is up 5lbs to a career-high mark, but he might not quite be done yet.

(4) Jeriko Du Reponet can be hit (3 from 3 to start his career) or miss (pulled up in each of his last/subsequent two), but on his day he's a smart hurdler who won a Grade 2 at Doncaster back in January. In his defence the two pull-ups were (i) at the Cheltenham Festival in a grade 1 and (ii) over fences at Sandown three weeks ago after eight months off track. I suspect that effort over fences was just to get some yards into his legs and open the airways and he could/should do better here.

(5) Queens Gamble is in sparking form, after two wins and a place from four bumpers, this 6yo mare is 3 from 3 over hurdles and was a Listed class winner at Taunton last time out. The only thing that might be an issue is race fitness, as she hasn't raced since that win at Taunton some eleven months ago. (7) Ooh Betty completes my shortlist for this one, even though I could have suggested another few! She's another 6yo mare in good form who from this time of year last year finished 11232 over hurdles with a a Listed class runner-up finish at Cheltenham in April ending her season. She returned to action after 206 days off to land a Class 3 handicap at Sandown three weeks ago and despite a 6lbs rise, should go well again today.

Easy to say back all of them, but my preference would be for (5) Queens Gamble to take this. I'm happy tog take a chance on getting the right version of (4) Jeriko Du Reponet and the value play is (3) Our Champ who for me is very viable 20/1 E/W option in a race paying four places for thirteen runners.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...It's a really open looking race and I think I'll take two of those towards the sharp end of the market and two longer priced chances. The two from the top would be (3) Senior Chief and (12) Victtorino. The former has made the frame in 9 of 10 starts and won a Class 2 handicap in first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham last month off the back of a seven month break, whilst the latter was very good this time last year and I'm hoping lightning strikes twice. He returned from a 223-day absence to win a Class 1 handicap at Ascot in November, before repeating the feat seven weeks later over the same course and distance and if he starts this season (after 263 days off) in the same vein, he might be tough to ignore.

My two longer shots at this would be (5) Colonel Harry and (1) Sam Brown. The Colonel represents last year's winning trainer and jockey and has a similar kind of profile to stablemate Datsalrightgino. he was a Listed class runner-up at Carlisle four weeks ago off the back of a seven month break and was Grade 2 winner over fences at Wetherby back in January, so clearly has something about him, whilst Sam Brown is a bit more of a left-field outside the box pick. He's the 12 yr old top weight with stacks of experience. he has won here before, relishes the softer ground, has won at both Gr 1 and Gr 2 and was only beaten by less than five lengths at Grade 2 last time out. That was at Wetherby four weeks ago coming off a six month break and ther might just be one (or two) big run left in the old boy.

I'm going to take all four in a belt and braces approach!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Listentoyourheart, (1) Sansrisk & (4) Jubilee Alpha

Leg 2: (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois

Leg 3: (4) The New Lion & (1) Califet En Vol

Leg 4: (5) Impose Toi, (8) Inthewaterside & (11) Guard The Moon

Leg 5: (5) Queens Gamble, (4) Jeriko Du Reponet & (3) Our Champ

Leg 6: (3) Senior Chief, (5) Colonel Harry, (12) Victtorino & (1) Sam Brown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

The best of luck to you all and I hope you have a great weekend.
Chris

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Newbury
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.10 Newbury
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And aside from a Class 2 maiden for 2yo fillies (not my bag at all), the highest-rated of those is the 7.10 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

A competitive-looking race on paper with plenty of info on the racecard itself, so let's start there and look at recent form, where Bright comes here seeking a hat-trick after a place and two wins from his last three. Regal Envoy is 2 from 6 and Miss Stormy Knight is 3 from 4.

Of the other nine runners, Supreme King, Vince Lombardi and Arnaz have one win each from their last seven outings, but Justcallmepete, Capotes Dream, Lahab and Al Shabab are all winless in their previous 11, 10, and 11 races respectively, whilst Haziym, Book of Life and Al Shabab are all still maidens after 13, 5 and 8 attempts.

Most of the field raced at this Class 4 level last time out, but top weight Regal Envoy and fast finisher Lahab both drop down from Class 3, whilst Vince Lombardi, Arnaz and the afore-mentioned maiden Book of Life all step up a level.

The maiden Haziym will wear a visor for the first time here and Miss Stormy Knight is signified as a fast finisher. She's also getting a 2lb weight for age allowance as one of three 3yr olds (along with Arnaz and Al Shabab) in the contest.

Book Of Life and Vince Lombardi have both had a couple of months rest since their last unplaced outings, but the others have all raced at least once on the last three weeks or so and whilst we 've previous course winners from the seven who've tackled this track before, we do have seven previous winners over today's trip with only our three maidens plus Arnax and Lahab failing to do so, according to Instant Expert, which paints a fairly sorry picture over the last two years...

...although Miss Stormy Knight does catch the eye immediately on going/trip with the only two real standout positive pieces of data, but there are plenty of negatives and my old adage is that if the card can't always tell you who to back, it can invariably steer you away from runners like Supreme King (class), Vince Lombardi (trip), Justcallmepete  (class/trip), Capote's Dream (class/trip) and Lahab (class) who all look unlikely winners at this point, even if the latter is now rated 10lbs lower than his sole win just over a year ago.

There is, of course, a possibility that the afore-mentioned quintet have been unlucky not to win more often and could well have come close to winning, so let's check the place stats from the same races as above...

Sadly, most of the reasons to swerve those horses are still in play, but Capote's Dream has a good place record at this grade and a reasonable one at the trip, so he might still figure in my calculations for the places. And if after deciding to focus on this half of the field...

...after Instant Expert, I'm hoping that if there's any draw bias that it'll be towards those drawn highest and I don't normally expect that to be the case over a fast straight 6f, but somewhat surprisingly off an albeit small sample size...

...stalls 6, 7, 8 and 11 have far better win ratios than the others, although I suspect that pace that might have  greater bearing on today's result, so let's check how those 30-odd races above were actually won...

No surprises this time, that's exactly what I though I'd see over a straight, fast six and these two sets of data create a pretty predictable pace/draw heat map...

So, all I need now is for one of more of Instant Expert survivors to be a front-runner and here's how they raced in their last four outings...

...with only Regal Envoy fitting that brief.

Summary

From Instant Expert and the pace/draw analysis together, Regal Envoy is the standout character and has to be in my final thoughts. Bright is our form horse finishing 311 in his last three and has to be respected, which leaves me with one to find for my 3 against the field and of the four options left over from Instant Expert, I'm going with Miss Stormy Knight. She's not ideally suited by the pace data, but has won three of her last four, all over this trip and on good to form ground. She's also getting that 2lb allowance, which could be useful.

I'd not seen any prices until 4.45pm Wednesday and here's how the market looked at that point with only Bet365 open for business...

The bookies will pay four places here, so I'd be happy to put Miss Stormy Knight forward as an E/W possible, whilst Regal Envoy looks much better value than Bright, but I'd expect it to be very tight between the pair.

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 20/07/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 5.45 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Haydock

...and of the ten races above, the one that probably suits me best (although I won't know until I'm in the middle of it!) would initially appear to be the 5.20 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

Top-weight Zouky hasn't been seen for fifteen weeks since finishing 5th of 10 at Kempton in a Listed race, but she drops two classes here. She has won here over 6f and 7f in the past, but as the sole 4yo in the race she's effectively penalised to the tune of 8lbs.

Bellarchi's last win was in mid-May over this trip at a higher class and she has won two of her last seven. She's the quickest turned out in the field, having been 7th of 11 at Ascot a week ago.

Circe has only raced five times to date (4 on the Flat) finishing third and first in her first two starts, but has failed to place since and now returns from a 12-week break.

Sunfall was third of seven at Chester three weeks ago and has won two of her last four and drops in class here.

Battle Queen also drops in class and also won two starts ago, but finished 6th at Ascot four weeks ago. Mind you, it was a 30-runner handicap, so she wasn't disgraced.

Shemozzle has finished 132 in her three starts to date and was only beaten by a neck at Haydock eight weeks ago on her last outing. She now steps up in class for her handicap debut.

Bottom weight Dramatic Effect is our only LTO winner, having landed a Class 4 Novice event over this trip at Goodwood six weeks ago. Prior to that she was 4th of 9 on handicap debut and she now steps up in class for a second tilt at a handicap.

With so many inexperienced runners here, we've not much to show you on Instant Expert, if truth be told...

...but we can see that most of the field have had at least one decent run on good ground and that a couple of them have made the frame at this level.

A straight run on good ground generally means that there's little to be gained from the draw, aside from the fact that those drawn lowest often have the rail as a guide to keep them straight and this seems to be the case here too...

...whereas with the pace stats from those races, it's a different story and it's the hold-up horses that have fared best of all, especially from a place perspective, although leaders have also won their fair share and it looks like the prominent chaser is the one to avoid here...

...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...

...with Sunfall and Dramatic Effect the more likely back markers.

Summary

There's not a lot to choose between them here, but I think it's Sunfall for me. She's in good form (1013), she's drawn low and will be held up, both of which look ideal for this track/trip.

As for the rest, I think Battle Queen might be the one who creates most problems for my pick, having won at Nottingham in May and was subsequently sixth in the 30-runner Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot from stall 1. Interestingly the five that beat her came from stalls 18, 33, 28, 4 and 22, so she was second home of her group.

I'm early to press today (now 2.25pm Friday), as I've got to get to the dentist this afternoon, so no prices available just yet.

Have a great weekend,
Chris



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/06/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Huelgoat is the one of most immediate/obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.17 Beverley
  • 3.00 Newton Abbot
  • 3.30 Newton Abbot
  • 4.00 Newton Abbot

I suspect Huelgoat will go off very short in a novice hurdle, a type of race I'm not keen on and the other two 'free' NH cards look like poor races too. The beverley race is a 6-runner affair for maiden fillies, so I'll swerve that too on a day where the racing is that poor that the 'best' and most valuable race of the day is a Class 4 contest worth less than £7500 to the winner. It's the 6.05 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here's how they'll line up...

...where Raintown, a winner of two of his last six races is the only LTO winner, although top-weight Entrancement and Marhaba Million were both runners-up. The latter is a three-race maiden and Eben Zaabeel has yet to make the frame in any of his four outings, whilst In From The Cold and Wahraan are both on losing streaks of nine races, although six of the former's nine losses were actually over hurdles.

Sole filly and top-weight Entrancement is the only class mover today, as she drops down one level from a defeat by just a nose at Goodwood a month ago and although she's up 4lbs for that run, her victor, Ayyab was only beaten by 3.75 lengths in a Listed race at Pontefract yesterday (Sunday). Our two maidens, Marhaba Million and Eben Zaabeel both make handicap debuts today with the former wearing a visor for the first time.

This pair of maidens are both aged 3 and as such receive a very healthy 14lbs weight allowance for this contest, which should help their cause on handicap debut. Marhaba Million last ran just over seven weeks ago with only In from The Cold (112 days off) rested for longer, as most of the field have raced in the last two to three weeks.

Raintown is 2 from 2 over this trip at Lingfield (where he is 4 from 5 overall), but has failed to win any of eight starts on turf, but Graham won here over course and distance four races ago and has also scored over this trip at Salisbury. This pair aside, we're a little short on course and/or distance wins, as verified by Instant Expert...

...where Graham marginally looks the most suited of a bunch that really don't have much to crow about under today's conditions. That said, he hasn't fired at Class 4, but track and trip will be right up his street. Entrancement and Raintown look to be the best of the rest, but it's admittedly a pretty low bar. That said, these three runners are the pick at Class 5, too and both Graham and Entrancement made the frame on their only Class 3 outing (LTO for Entrancement as documented above).

Graham has been allocated stall 1, but past races suggest that drawn in stalls 5 and higher may have a bit of an advantage...

...but I wouldn't say that it was impossible to win from a low draw. There's not much to be gained from the pace stats from those races above...

...which suggests there's not really a right or a wrong way of approaching this race and the fact that any draw and any running style can win here is reflected in our pace/draw heat map where 7 of the 12 possible permutations are shown in green, suggesting Newbury's 1m4f trip is a fair one and the 'better' horses should be the winners...

Summary

When the pace, draw and pace/draw stats don't really identify a runner of interest and there's little help from Instant Expert, i tend to refer back to recent form and also gut feeling about who I think are the better runners in the pack.

The two maidens/handicap debutants could be dangerous with a huge weight allowance, but they're largely unknown quantities although Marhaba Million's results have been the better of the two and that's probably why Hills had him at 11/4 at 2.50pm on Monday, but those odds don't excite me.

The interest for me here in the class dropper Entrancement, who was only narrowly beaten last time out and a similar run here might make his 6/1 ticket look generous, whilst current 8/1 outsider and LTO winner Raintown could well be good enough for a place if finally transferring some of his recent excellent form to the Flat.

That said, this isn't a race to invest too heavily in on a day of pretty mediocre fayre.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 18/05/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Navan
  • 4.20 Thirsk
  • 5.05 Bangor
  • 5.35 Doncaster

And of the twelve UK races in total from above, I'm going to look at the highest rated which is the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes aka the 1.50 Newbury, a 9-runner, 4yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 1m4f on good/good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a battle between Middle Earth and Salt bay for the right to finish second behind the King's horse Desert Hero, but things don't always pan out as they first appear, so let's dive into the recent form first...

All nine have won at least one of their last six, including German import So Moonstruck (3rd in the German Derby LTO), who makes a UK debut today. Bolster is three from five and won last time out, as did Middle Earth, who has won three of his last four starts, whilst Maxi King arrives here seeking a fourth win on the bounce.

Maxi King is upped in class here, though, as are Bolster and Cemhaan. Middle Earth might be in need of a run after a 225-day lay-off, whilst it's over 22 months since So Moonstruck was last seen, but the other seven have all raced in the last four weeks.

So far, only three of these have raced here at Newbury for a collective 0 wins from 4, although Salt Bay has made the frame on both attempts. Cemhaan, Desert hero, Maxi King and Middle Earth have already won over today's trip according to Instant Expert...

...where Middle Earth seems to be the one best suited so far, off an admittedly small number of relevant runs. Flying Honours has some decent numbers there, too, but finished last of 11 on his sole 2023 start and was last of seven on his only run this year. Desert Hero is proven at the trip, but would prefer more cut in the ground. That said, his place stats are excellent...

...and on those alone, he appears to steal Middle Earth's thunder and both King of Conquest and Flying Honours look vulnerable. Desert hero is the highest-rated runner in the race at 113, which technically makes him at least 3lbs 'well-in' off equal weights, whilst Maxi King is rated some 17lbs lower than Desert Hero

Somewhat unusually for a trip of 1m4f, there does seem to be an advantage to be had from the draw, as those drawn lowest have fared much better than others...

...which is good news for the likes of Salt Bay, Maxi King and Bolster, but there's no huge pace bias here...

...which is probably just as well, considering there doesn't appear to be much between most of the field in terms of their pace profile...

Bolster might well lead the way here from stall 3 and Cemhaan might well try to track across from stall 8, but the lack of general pace will play into the hands of the better runners who can just set about their own race and with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that high-drawn mid-division runners fare really well here, that could be useful for Desert Hero...

Summary

This has to be Desert Hero's race to win or lose, hasn't it? I think he's the best in the field, he's also the highest-rated and after finishing third in the St Leger (1m6½f) last year and only beaten by a head in a Group 3 over 1m2f at Sandown recently after a 223 day absence, the return to 1m4f should see him back in the winners' enclosure.

Sadly, we're not getting rich off him at a best price of 11/8 and with Middle Earth and Salt Bay next in the market at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, I agree with the bookies' 1-2-3 today, but I do slightly prefer Salt Bay to Middle Earth. Neither are backable as E/W prospects (but if forecasts/exactas or tricasts/trifectas are you thing, who knows?), so if I was going to pull one from the pack for a small wager, it'd possibly be Bolster at 18/1.

Enjoy your weekend, folks, Wembley beckons for us Bolton boys.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 02/03/2024

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following qualifiers for me to consider...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year form...

...whilst I can also call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.35 Navan
  • 1.55 Newbury
  • 3.48 Navan
  • 4.00 Kelso
  • 4.15 Doncaster

...and with a top class contest on the 'free' list, I'm going to look at the 1.55 Newbury, also known as the Greatwood Gold Cup, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Not only is joint bottom-weight Highstakesplayer our only LTO winner, he has also won his last three and five of his last six, finishing as runner-up in the defeat. I should however point out that those six runs were 2 x Class 5, then 3 x Class 4 before a Class 3 last time out, so he's no shoo-in here. Elsewhere all his rivals have won at least once in their last seven outings (Bill Baxter & Gemirande twice, Jetoile Grandeur Dame & Heltenham 3 times) with Gustavian's six consecutive defeats the coldest run of form on show.

So we know that in-form Highstakesplayer is up two classes here and so is Sir Psycho, whilst out of form Gustavian steps up one class, as does Heltenham who was a runner-up just a week ago. On reflection, I suppose Jetoile's recent 4th place in a Cheltenham Class 1 is the best recent run of this field, especially as he won the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree on his penultimate start.

All bar Gemirande have raced in the last 5 weeks, but he hasn't been seen for over ten months now and although he was 2nd past the post (placed 3rd after the stewards got involved) in a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time out, it's not inconceivable that he might need the run here, but like all bar Sir Psycho, he has already won over this trip. Only Kandoo Kid and Heltenham have won here at Newbury before (Jetoile & Gemirande are the only others to have raced here, mind) and both have won over course and distance...

Sadly, we don't glean a great deal from the win stats on Instant Expert above, but what I did spot was that Heltenham, Gemirande, Grandeur D'ame, Sir Psycho and Kandoo kid are 7 to 11lbs higher than their last winning marks, despite not coming here in great form, so that has to be a worry for their chances. The win stats did show that plenty of these will 'get' the trip readily enough but that the field lacks experience at going, class and course.

On the other hand, the place stats suggest that a few of these should relish the conditions with Jetoile, Gemirande and Heltenham showing green in four of the five categories. If the field approaches this race as they have done in their last few outings, then those three I mentioned from Instant Expert might not see too much of each other...

...with Gemirande a proven front-runner and Heltenham tending to bide his time. Jetoile normally runs in mid-division, whilst Gemirande's biggest challenge for an early lead is likely to come from Sir Psycho or Grandeur D'ame. The stats for similar past races would tend to suggest that Heltenham will be at a disadvantage if he's held up for a third race in a row...

...and that he should revert to racing further forward as he did three and four races back, when making the frame on both occasions, winning once.

Summary

There's no standout performer here, aside from Highstakesplayer's recent set of results, but that was all at a lower level than this. I suspect confidence will be high, though and that he'll probably still manage to beat most of this field. I've not got him marked as a winner, but if the odds are reasonable enough, he'd be an E/W option, as would Heltenham who is a proven placer at the trip as long as he doesn't become detached at the rear and that's the gamble with him, I suppose. he's low in the weights and has won over course and distance and I fancy him to make a good fist of this.

My preference, however, is Jetoile, who won back to back Chepstow contests last year before landing the grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree in October. He was a decent fourth after a three month break last time out, he's 3 from 3 over 2m4f and his form on soft/heavy ground reads 12321, so let's check the market at 5.15pm Friday...

Highstakesplayer is too short to back E/W for me, but I'd be happy to take 8/1 E/W about Heltenham. As for Jetoile, I think he has what it takes to win here, but 10/1 is very good when IO was expecting around 7's, so whilst I'm backing him, I might well hedge my bets.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 30/12/23

My last column of the year focuses on Saturday's racing, where our free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have sadly generated no qualifiers for me to consider, but I can at least call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.15 Haydock
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 3.10 Haydock
  • 4.45 Wolverhampton

...a list that contains a couple of Class 3 handicaps, the most valuable of which is the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground that will be softer in places...

Only Surrey Quest managed to win last time out, but Certainly Red, Bowtogreatness, Fantastikas, Atlanta Brave and Striking A Pose all had top three finishes, although it has been 259 days since Bowtogreatness was last seen with all his rivals having had at least one run in the last two months.

He does however drop down two classes to run here, as does Bangers and Cash with the other two of the top four in the weights, Certainly Red and Docpickedme dropping down one class. Conversely, Surrey Quest and bottom-weight Striking A Pose are both up a level here.

Bangers and Cash will be wearing cheekpieces for the first time today, whilst this will be Surrey Quest's first outing since having had wind surgery during a two month break following his LTO win at Huntingdon.

Notachance's Class 4, 3m½f handicap hurdle success back in March 2019 is the only previous Newbury win from this dozen runners, but Certainly Red, Docpickedme, Laskalin and Shanty Alley have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one. The field lacks success under similar conditions to those expected here, but Instant Expert does highlight a couple of runners who might be well suited...

...with Certainly Red and Bangers And Cash the immediate eyecatchers there. Causes for concern above include Shanty Alley, Yes Indeed and Striking A Pose at Class 3 and Fantastikas over this trip. The rest of the field seem pretty unexposed under these parameters, but many of them are regular placers...

Fairly strangely for a stayers' chase on soft-ish ground, past similar races here at Newbury have tended to suit front-runners those chasing the leader(s) with those racing further back having less success...

...which based on this field's most recent outings would appear to benefit Bangers And Cash, Docpickedme and Shanty Alley...

...plus to a slightly lesser extent Laskalin (although if he leads?), Surrey Quest and Notachance.

Summary

Bangers And Cash caught the eye on Instant Expert, despite never having raced here at Newbury. He also has no run at 3m2f, but has won at 3m, 3m3½f and even 3m5f, so he has stamina to boot. He will also be expected to be up with the pace and would normally be under serious consideration here as a bet, but after winning three of his last four last season, he has run poorly twice at Cheltenham this term and will need to improve massively to get involved.

I'd be backing him here if he'd had a decent run under his belt this season, but whilst I think he's much better than his current 16/1 odds, he's not my idea of a winner here. That said, he is more than capable of making the frame and with firms paying four places, he might be of interest.

Whilst we're looking at E/W possibles, Shanty Alley might be the answer at 10/1. He's a regular placer on Instant Expert and has a decent pace profile for this race. He was the runner-up in this contest last year and is 5lbs better off this time and probably needed the run last time out after nearly seven months off.

If pushed for a winner, I'd struggle here; there are no standouts for me, but I do like the look of the two at the top of the weights, who both drop in class. Both Certainly Red and Bowtogreatness have chances here and with the former currently trading at 11/1, that could also be an E/W route.

The one I have largely ignored is the favourite Atlanta Brave who is still relatively unexposed and gets weight from most of his rivals, but 4/1 looks mightily short to me about a horse whose best form is at Class 4, has never gone beyond 3m and hasn't won beyond 2m6f, but who knows?

Happy New Year, everyone; I'll see you on the other side of Hogmanay in '24.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 09/11/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Ludlow
  • 1.05 Clonmel
  • 3.10 Ludlow
  • 3.45 Ludlow
  • 3.55 Sedgefield

Those races above don't really grab my attention, so I'm going to have a look at the day's highest rated handicap hurdle in the UK, the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 2 affair over a left-handed 3m 52yds (+138 yds) on good to soft/soft ground...

Emitom, Young Butler and bottom-weight Equinus all won last time out, whilst Hititi has won his last three with Fifty Ball the only one without a 'recent' win, having lost eight on the bounce.

LTO winners Hititi, Emitom and Equinus are all up one class here, as are Zanza, Only the Bold and regular runner-up Martha Brae whilst another LTO winner Young Butler is up two classes for his yard debut for Paul O'Brien.

Conversely Our Power, Dolphin Square and Grumpy Charley all drop down from Class 1 action. Equinus and Fifty Ball last ran 11 and 33 days ago respectively, but the rest of the field have been off the track for six to nine months, during which time Only The Bold had wind surgery.

Only four of these (Bold Endeavour, Grumpy Charley, Martha Brae and Fifty Ball) have yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Dolphin Square and Emitom have won over course and distance. Our Power (2m1f hurdle), Zanza (2m½f, 2m6½f & 2m7½f chases) and Grumpy Charley (2m6½f & 3m2½f chases) are also former Newbury winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

That's overall NH form, of course, so we now need to remove the chasing stats from the above, as follows...

...where only Fifty Ball has struggled to win with these underfoot conditions. We're a bit shy on Class 2 experience/wins, but Dolphin Square's 3 from 8 is decent enough. Zanza and Emitom are the pick on course hurdle wins, whilst the field's record at 3m+ looks a bit patchy in the main with Martha Brae's 1 from 11 looking particularly poor, although as you can see below, she did make the frame in four of her ten defeats...

From the above, Dolphin Square looks like being a candidate for an E/W bet with a solid line of green off a decent sample size of races and off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win back in December. He's also had 10 wins and 5 places from the 19 starts under today's jockey. If he runs like he has in his last four races and the rest of the field do the same, then I'd expect him to be quite prominent in the upper half of the field and he did win five races ago from a prominent position...

Bold Endeavour looks like being the one to set the tempo here, with likely favourite Equinus towards the rear along with Zanza and Young Butler, but our Pace Analyser of past similar races suggests that the back of the field might not be the place to run from...

Summary

Equinus is the current fav at a generally available 15/8, although Bet365 do offer 9/4. I think this is a bit skinny about a horse who is likely to have to pass most of the field late on. That said, he's unexposed at the trip and won well at Aintree last time out. He gets weight all round and isn't penalised for his LTO win and might well be the one to beat, but I can't be backing him at 15/8.

I'm not sure who'd beat him, though, if I'm honest. Front runner Bold Endeavour might try to put enough distance between himself and the fav, but he's carrying 12-0 which will be tough here and 13/2 isn't E/W territory for me. Sadly the same applies to 7/1 shot Hititi, who also comes here in great form and has a good pace profile for this race. he'd need a career best to win, but I think he's in with a great shout of making the frame (4 places) and I'd certainly be interested at 8's or bigger.

All of which brings me back to prolific placer Dolphin Square. He too has a good pace profile for this contest, his IE place stats are the best on offer and he gets on really well with today's jockey.

He's 4lbs below his last win and at 10/1 (generally), he's my E/W fancy, whilst at bigger (18's) odds, Our Power is an interest as he switches back to hurdles. He went into this year's Grand National off the back of consecutive Class 1 handicap chase wins over 3m and ran really well for a long way in the national before finishing 11th. he runs off 4lbs lower here and the drop in trip and easier jumping might just be his ticket.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 29/08/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Island Bandit would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.15 Ripon
  • 3.40 Newbury
  • 6.20 Worcester
  • 7.15 Bellewstown

The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that Island Bandit from The Shortlist runs in one of the free races above, so it would be a little remiss of me not to take a look at the the 3.40 Newbury, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good/good to firm ground...

Featured runner Island Bandit has won two of his last three outings and along with Cabinet of Clowns, he comes here on the back of a win last time out. Bodorgan and Remarkable Force were in the frame on their last runs, but the latter is one of a pair (Intervention being the other) who are winless in five or more ( 9 & 21 respectively) races. In fact, although Intervention is denoted as a fast finisher here, a Flat record of 1 from 21, a run of 21 consecutive defeats and a two-step rise in class is enough for me to rule him out of contention straight away.

Cabiney of Clowns, Monte Linas and the out of form Remarkable Force all step up a class (and that should put paid to the latter's chances too), but two of the field (top-weight Classic and Crack Shot) are dropping down from Class 2 with the latter having a second run in handicap company, just under four weeks after his handicap debut and all ten runners here have raced inside the last four weeks.

As you'd expect from his position on The Shortlist, Island Bandit is a former course and distance winner and is in fact, the only previous Newbury winner in the field. Mind you, only half of the field have been here before! He has also won over a mile away from Newbury, as have Metabolt, Cabinet of Clowns, Sea Eagle and Monte Linas, as documented below on Instant Expert...

...where Island Bandit's numbers really do stand out and Intervention looks weak again. There are plenty of red blocks above, but most of them are from sample sizes of five races or fewer, so I think the place data might prove helpful here...

Well, that wasn't entirely helpful, but it does suggest that many of these should run well enough under the expected conditions. Classic has, however, failed to make the frame in four attempts here at Newbury and Bodorgan looks weak on going/distance. Island Bandit's record on the going is also interesting, with all 6 places (from 13 runs) being wins. Boom or bust, perhaps?

If he's going to land another course success, he's going to have to do it from stall 9 of 10, though, and our draw analyser does suggest he'd have been better off drawn lower...

This doesn't of course, mean that he can't win, but to overcome the draw, our pace analyser suggests that his best tactic would be to get out quickly and stay out for as long as he possibly can...

...especially as our pace/draw heat map says that high drawn front-runners have the best of it over a mile here at Newbury...

...which is great news for Island Bandit, based on his most recent efforts...

...and those average pace scores aligned with today's draw generate the following pace/draw heat map...

Summary

The market seems to favour Classic here as the early 9/4 fav, but I'm not entirely convinced. He has failed to shine here at Newbury, hasn't really tackled this trip and would prefer the ground to be softer. There's no disputing his ability, Team Hannon don't throw runners straight into Group 3 action after a seven break if they don't think they're any good, but I'm not sure 9/4 represents any value. He does, of course, has a good draw and a 6lbs weight allowance and I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself unburdened by the weight of my money! 😉

Instead, I feel more drawn to Instant Expert and the pace/draw heat map, where from low to high, Cabinet of Clowns, Island Bandit and Crack Shot catch my eye and whilst featured runner Island Bandit is carrying a 5lb penalty for a recent two-length success, he has conditions to suit and has two wins and a runner-up finish under today's jockey. He might not quite get there today, but at 11/1, Island Bandit has to be my E/W pick, whilst Cabinet of Clowns wouldn't be a bad call at 10's either after winning two of his last four.

As for Crack Shot, much might depend on how Island Bandit runs and if he tows him into the race. If he gets the break he needs and builds on a promising handicap debut last time out in a higher grade at Glorious Goodwood, he could well be the winner here at 9/2, but I'm playing if relatively safe with my E/W picks.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 21/07/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive but have still produced a trio of qualifiers...

...with Corinthia Knight of immediate interest. Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.10 Newbury
  • 5.55 Hamilton
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.30 Newmarket

And I think I'll turn to the highest class/most valuable race from the free list, which is the 4.10 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the 3pm Hills' 11/4 joint favourites, Spring Fever and Flower of Dubai, but that any of their rivals, bar Tashi (who looks weak), could be contenders for the places, so let's dive in...

Night Sparkle and Spring Fever both won last time out and have won two of their last three outings, whilst Flash Bardot also won LTO and is two from four. Flower of Dubai is two from five and only Tashi is winless in more than seven races, having now lost her ,last twelve in a run stretching back over two years. She has won just once in twenty-three attempts and I'm already saying that she's not for me here despite wearing a hood for the first time. It would have to have magical powers, I think!

Secret Shadow and Flower of Dubai both drop down a class and the latter will fancy her chances after only going down by a length at Haydock last time out. Spring Fever, Divina Grace and Alba Longa are, however, up one class, whilst Flash Bardot's win last week was at Class 5.

That was only last Thursday and she's turned back out quickest of these nine. Most of her rivals have raced in the last six weeks or so, but Secret Shadow has been rested for three months.

She is, however, the only previous course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won here before (mind you, Haseefah's run here in December 2021 is the only other appearance by any of the field) and only top weight Night Sparkle has scored over a similar trip.

Three of the field have already won on good ground and three have won at this grade, according to Instant Expert...

...which sadly doesn't carry as much data as I generally hope for. It does, however, highlight the wretched form of Tashi and suggests that Haseefah might struggle in this grade. It also points out that both Night Sparkle and Spring Fever are now rated 10lbs higher than their last wins, whilst both Flash Bardot and Alba Longa are carrying considerably more weight than when last victorious.

The place stats don't shed too much more light on this field...

...but they do suggest that Divina Grace likes the good ground better than her 0 from 3 record might imply, whilst Hassefah's form at this level isn't as bad as it first seemed and whilst it's almost a year since Secret Shadow last won, she has been running in much better races than this and looks the pick of the pack purely on the data above.

I'm normally fairly dismissive of the effects of the draw over trips of 1m2f and beyond as I believe that there's ample time to undo a 'bad' draw and here at Newbury in races of 1.5 miles and further, it looks like I'd be right in those assertion...

The apparent success of the lower drawn horses is a massively skewed by a freak number of winners from stall 2 and based on that data above, there's only stall 1 that has struggled to make the frame, which is further good news for the jt favs, who will emerge from stalls 5 & 6. They're drawn side-by-side but if they're going to be the first two home, they're likely to be a fair distance apart during the actual race itself, as I'd expect Spring Fever to be up with the pace, whilst Flower of Dubai tends to be produced quite late, if recent outings are anything to go by...

If we then revisit those races used for the draw stats, we can see that those setting the pace here often become a target for the chasing pack to aim for and they do generally catch and beat those leaders...

...which must be advantage Flower of Dubai in that battle of the jt favs.

Summary

I do think that the 3pm joint favs Flower of Dubai and Spring Fever are the best two runners in the race, but the hold-up approach by the former tips the scales in her favour for me, so I'm with Flower of Dubai for this one. Bet365 have opened up since I wrote the pre-amble and go 7/2 about Flower of Dubai and whilst that's not over generous, it's at least fair.

Spring Fever should still be good enough to hold on and make the frame, but who joins them? Well, I could make a case for several, but on an ability vs risk vs reward/value basis, I think I'd take a small E/W punt on Secret Shadow, who looks far too long at 20/1 with Bet365. Hills go 11/1 about her and that's more realistic in my opinion.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 2.50 Newbury
  • 4.30 Newbury
  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.50 Worcester
  • 7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line.  Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 11/02/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one runner under the 1-year form filter...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 2.33 Lingfield
  • 3.13 Warwick
  • 4.00 Naas
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

It's a decent looking contest that Sayadam is entered into, but we don't often have top quality Grade 2 contests on the 'free list' and as it's named after one of my all-time favourite jumpers, I feel I should look at the Denman Chase. The card says it's the 2.25 Newbury, a 7-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 18 fences on good ground, The race is worth almost £40k to the winner and the trip is just shy of 2m7½f, these are the runners...

There's a school of thought that this is two races in one, where Eldorado Allen, Fanion D'Estruval and Hitman will battle it out for the big money and the rest scrap it out for the remnants of the pot and to be perfectly honest with you, I'd be inclined to agree.

Does He Know won LTO and four races ago, Hitman won two starts back, as did Zanza whilst Sam Brown won three back. Eldorado Allen, Sam Brown & Fanion D'Estruval all sport cheekpieces for the first time whilst Kalashnikow tries blinkers. Five of the field were last seen on Boxing Day, but Sam brown has been off for ten weeks and Does He Know's LTO win was three months ago. He's the only one yet to win here at Newbury, but he has won over a similar trip in a 3m chase at Ascot, whereas Sam Brown's distance win was over fences at Lingfield. Top and bottom on the card, Eldorado Allen and Zanza are former course and distance winners.

The Geegeez-sponsored yard of Anthony Honeyball train Sam Brown and he's the oldest in the field at 11, whilst the youngest is the likely fav, the 7yo Hitman who attempts to go beyond 2m5½f for only the second time (pulled up at Kempton LTO on first try). Hitman is however, best off at the weights based on weight carried to official ratings and he's 2lbs better off than Fanion D'Estruval and a whole 17lbs clear of Zanza, who looks worst off by a good way.

Those course and distance wins mentioned above are documented below in Instant Expert, along with the stats for Class and Going...

...and they interestingly show Does He Know in a very good light and he's already won a Grade 2 and a Class 1 handicap this year. Ten of Fanion D'Estruval's fourteen starts have been at Class 1, but he has yet to win any and has only made the frame twice. Hitman (0/9) and Kalashnikov (1/11) have also struggled at this level, but the former has at least made the frame in five of those nine defeats and will be seeking to do better here in a race where last year's winner Eldorado Allen and the veteran Sam Brown are the likeliest front-runners...

Three of the field were held up LTO, but I suspect they'll all race ahead of Fanion D'Estruval and Kalashnikov, because if they don't, there's going to be nothing going on behind the front pair who might set themselves up for a free tilt at the prize money. That's actually a decent tactic and the further back the hold-up types drop, the less chance they'll have of winning, if past races are anything to go by...

In fact the story of last year's win for Eldorado Allen goes like this...Led, but hit 12th fence and was narrowly headed at the 13th. He then chased and caught the leader for himself to lead again 4 out, ending up 3 lengths clear at the last, staying on strongly on the run-in... A similar approach here might well yield a similar result.

Summary

I'm not that keen on the favourite, Hitman, here to be honest. He bled last time out and that's a concern, he's never actually gone this far in a race and has a poor win record at Class 1, making Eldorado Allen a more attractive option to me at 11/4.

Fanion D'Estruval completes the 'favoured' trio, but he might have to come from a long way back to get involved and I've got a feeling that Does He Know might run a better race than his 7/1 odds might suggest. Bookies are generally paying three places here, so he might be an option for a cheeky E/W punt.

Whatever you decide to do, I hope you all have a great weekend. I'm away with the family for my mother-in-law's 75th Birthday, so my next instalment will be on Monday evening for Tuesday's racing.



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Roving Reports: Silver or Gold at Newbury?

The light is just breaking through as I leave the house to get my lift for Newbury's two-day meeting, the highlight of which is the Coral Gold Cup, which has had a promotion, having formerly been the Ladbrokes Silver Trophy, writes David Massey. I'm being picked up at a local tennis club, where unsurprisingly, no-one is having a knock-up at 8am.

We are going very early as, being a Friday morning, there's a good chance we'll encounter motorway traffic. Needless to say we sail down without so much as a "queue ahead" sign and arrive considerably earlier than we planned. I could have had another hour in bed.

Newbury is an easy track to hump the gear on, as they let you park right next to the ring to unpack it all, and then it's a short pull to the ring itself. The joint set up, there's plenty of time for tea and a chat with a few of the other books.

The general consensus seems to be the train strikes, due Saturday, won't affect business that much. We will see. Chat turns to the World Cup, and Martyn Of Leicester reveals he's had a decent bet on Iran to beat the Welsh. It's currently 0-0, but the roar goes up late in the match and he's off and running even before we've had a race. Money without work, indeed.

I'm working on the rails for the next couple of days and the first, and welcome, surprise is that all the rails joints have been cleaned. One of a bookmaker's expenses is paying for a rails/ring joint, if they hire one, and of course you've no choice if you're on the rails. However, the rails joints are often wet, or dirty, or both, and using them can be unpleasant. Not today though, they're in pristine condition. I hide my lunch in the hod.

We get betting an hour before the first, and needless to say, it's quiet. There's time to fetch more tea, although the day isn't cold. Far from it; in fact, the sun is out and actually providing some warmth. It's evens each of two my coat coming off before the first. Unheard of in late November, but we are where we are.

Finally some punters arrive. One thing about Newbury is the bet size is generally bigger here than at other tracks. Most punters have a tenner or a twenty on, even those that are fairly novice and just here for a day out. There's nobody wanting to back the odds-on favourite, Jet Powered, but we take plenty of each-way money for both Fuji Rocks and West Park Boy. That all stays with us as Half Dozen rolls in for third.

Frere D'Armes is a decent result in the second and we're off to a good start. Sadly, a fair chunk is given back by the books on Stay Away Fay, who looks beat at one point but as Russian Ruler hits the wall late, comes through to win.

A little known fact is that the only men you'll find in the toilets whilst the race is on are bookmakers and their workers. For most of us, it's the only chance we get if we need to relieve ourselves of the morning mugs of tea. There will be the usual chat about how it's all going, whether you're winning or losing, that sort of thing. The talk is of whether we can get Stage Star beat at prohibitive odds; it turns out we can.

One woman has had not one, but two, £10 bets on Sebastopol at 20-1 and is delighted to pick up her £420. She's done a lot better than her mate, who had a fiver on Stage Star, and now regrets not taking her friend's advice.

We also cop the lot on the forecast. When there's not many runners we can get the forecast on the board too, and Newbury is a place where punters do like having a forecast bet. More so than anywhere else, in my opinion. No idea why.

Having praised the track faithful for their general bet size, there's no big money around at all today, and the biggest bet I take is on the Long Distance Hurdle, a £200 wager on Champ, which never looks like getting beaten despite the fact it's only a neck at the line.

We get a result in the last, and with our digs for the night only ten minutes away, I'm in the shower by half four and having a nap fifteen minutes later. Lovely. Later, we find a pub to watch the first half of the England game, and it's so dull I'm thinking of starting a Mexican wave. There's a poster on the wall telling patrons that drug taking on the premises will not be tolerated, but I'm pretty sure the bloke in front of me has the jazz fags out. Food, and time for bed.

Saturday, and we're up and running an hour before the first. These early starts are not good for betting purposes; whereas a 2pm start in the summer means you've people around having a drink and a bet, in winter a 12.15 start means people just stay inside keeping warm until midday.

The no-sock brigade are still around but, much like Covid, not in the same numbers as two years ago. Perhaps, after months of wrecking their feet and having them stinking like squashed skunks, they've all realised that covering them up is the future. I bet their chiropodist bills were through the roof.

Anyway, I digress. Luccia gets the favourite backers off to a good start, despite a late drift, and one punter who has had £300 on with us at 6-5 has the lot back on Thyme Hill. That stays in the hod, as does all the Saturday money on Mortlach, for whom all the fivers and tenners are, forcing his price down from 16s to 9s at the off. If that had been a midweek race we wouldn't have taken a penny for Mortlach, but the out-for-the-weekend punters ensure he's well backed on days like this.

Zanza is a shocking result for most of the books, but they get it back with interest on Red Risk who, at 20-1, goes almost unbacked with us. I say almost - we've 2 x £10 bets to pay out, one from a woman who, she tells me, backs everything with "red" in the name. I'm doing it wrong, clearly; I give her a free pen for the advice.

Constitution Hill is winning the Fighting Fifth on the big screen. Round the back, by the paddock, Nicky is getting a round of applause and tips his hat, which looks like it's come direct from Vladivostok, to the crowd. Around the front, it barely creates a ripple.

First Street isn't actually a bad result for us as they all want Teddy Blue, who can manage no better than third. Then the big race, and I'm expecting big queues. They don't materialise. Trade on the not-the-Hennessy is 50% down on what it was last year. As it was earlier in the year at York, the train strikes have really had an effect on turnover.

The last bet I take is a debit card bet from a lad rushing up on the off to have £100 on Le Milos at 9-2. He's the first in the payout queue though. I've a monkey ready bundled up and give him that, and as I get his other £50 ready, he walks off waving the money at his mates. "Oi!", I shout after him, holding his other fifty quid, "is this my Christmas tip?"

His mates are rightly laughing at him. It's a good job I'm honest. Sheepishly he makes his way back through the crowd for his bullseye.

And, of course, as it should be, Amarillo Sky sends the punters home happy as a well-backed 11-8 jolly in the last. It's starting to rain, and it's almost dark. Time to go home, I reckon...

- DM



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