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Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2014

Another head-scratchingly poor display from a well-fancied runner yesterday as 5/2 shot (slight drift from our 9/4 advisory) Dormello Mo only managed to beat one of his five rivals home.

The fact he was beaten by a well-backed 5/4 favourite wasn't a surprise, but the manner of his 15 lengths defeat left me a little nonplussed. He folded quite tamely late on and seemed a little disinterested in the closing stages. Plenty for the Ditcheat team to work on, I think.

I don't say any of the above because we lost and we're on a poor run of form, it's just the way I saw it and as for my form, I'm sure it will return soon enough, such is the cyclical nature of any "tipping" (oh, how I hate that word!) service.

Off to Scotland in search of a winner today in the...

4.15 Kelso:

Since the start of 2011 trainer Dianne Sayer has had 489 entrants in NH handicap contests, a pretty decent sample size. And to think that she's achieved a 13.5% strike rate (via 66 winners) is very good going from so many horses. 1 in 7 isn't bad at the best of times, but to repeat that 66 times over is brilliant.

And as such is normally the case, she's profitable to back blindly, as level stakes profits of 162.5pts and an ROI of 33.2% will testify. Now these are very healthy figures, but perhaps they're skewed by a couple of big-priced winners?

Closer inspection says no. If we revert to our "general default setting" of the 13/8 to 6/1 price range (we do go outside those odds for SotD, of course, but most of our selections run within these parameters), we see that the figures are actually better, not worse. 35 winners from 136 runners is a strike rate of 25.7%, almost double the initial stats and these 35 winners have brought about a 40.5% return on stakes invested, courtesy of 54.7pts profit.

From that 35/136 record, the numbers for Mrs Sayers' odds-restricted runners here at Kelso are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 14.25pts (+79.2% ROI), very nice indeed.

Dianne has two runners here today: Sergeant Pink looks to be up against it as the 16/1 BOG outsider of nine in the 2.00 race, which brings us to Newdane Dancer.

Newdane Dancer has been running really well of late with results of 1312 in his last four outings spread over a 12-week period stretching back to 28th December last year and although he has been raised 3lbs from his latest run, he stands a good chance of securing a third win on five here today.

He stayed on well to take second place in a big field at Catterick 17 days ago and shaped as though he's have been better suited by today's extra furlong and a half and this is (on paper, at least!) a weaker looking affair with less rivals to beat.

It's also interesting to note that his recent four-race run of form has coincided with being teamed up with 5lb claiming jockey Colm McCormack who will be keen to maintain his 4/4 place record on this horse. Which brings me nicely to another little stat regarding the trainer Mrs Dianne Sayer.

A much smaller sample size than the stat I opened with (just 73 runners this time), but in the same 2011-14 timeline, her horses have 20.6% of their races when ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs in a NH handicap race. To save you doing the maths, that's 15 winners from 73 all priced below 10/1. And the resultant profits of 42.9pts or 58.8% of stakes are worth having too.

So, we've a trainer who you can back blindly at all odds and even more so at shorter odds. She's also got a good record here at Kelso in handicap contests and has a horse in great form with a burgeoning relationship with his 5lb claimer jockey, the type of rider his trainer excels with. What could possibly go wrong? 😀

Personally, I don't think there's a better horse in the race and despite a 3lb rise, our selection is still quite low in the weights here and carries 10lbs less than his two most likely rivals at the head of the market. All of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on Newdane Dancer at 9/2 BOG with Bet365. That's easily the best of the prices currently on offer, but you can check them out for yourself, if you just...

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Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd January 2014

And back down to earth with a bump! After a run of 4 winning doubles in 7 days, I suppose a bad day at the office was almost overdue!

The best I could manage was the one length defeat of Columbian Roulette, who had been backed in from 2/1 to an SP 0f 5/4, but failed to catch the winner.

This was probably just as well, since the second race was a personal disaster. Carli King beat Grey Wulff home by some 53 lengths, as the pair finished 4th and 5th in a five horse race and despite CK putting that distance between him and GW, he was still a good 25 lengths behind the winner. Moving on is our best bet here!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Columbian Roulette : 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Frankthetank : 5th at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
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Carli King : 4th of 5 (adv 11/4)
Grey Wulff : 5th of 5! (adv 2/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
126 winning selections from 436 = 28.90%
41 winning doubles in 117 days = 35.04%

Stakes: 232.00pts
Returns: 248.04pts

P/L : +16.04pts (+6.91% ROI)

A quick return to winning ways is hoped for from these:

1.40 Catterick:

Dianne Sayer trained the winner of the last running of this race and she'll fancy her chances of repeating the feat with Newdane Dancer who won over course and distance when dropped into a seller almost four weeks ago. This may be a Class 5 handicap, but the reality is that it's of no better quality than that seller. She stayed on strongly to win that day and seemed to have plenty in hand. She is, admittedly, up 8lbs for that win, but still receives chunks of weight from most of her rivals here.

Newdane Dancer is 2 from 4 on soft ground and is the only course and distance winner on the race and I expect her to "double" up at 7/2 BOG today with the most likely threat coming from Logical Approach, who was 3rd here three weeks over 2m3f and ran very well before running out of steam late on and it is expected that he'll be happier at this shorter trip in a race that looks far less competitive than his New Year's Day appearance.

First-time blinkers seemed to help him that day and they are reapplied here in the hope that at 5/1 BOG, he can offer a real alternative to the main selection.

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3.55 Southwell:

Millers Reef was excellent last time out when he handled the soft ground superbly to win by five lengths over a similar trip to today. It's soft yet again here and this could develop into an attritional battle. That run four weeks ago seemed to be what he's been looking for and took it in his stride on his first attempt at a trip 5 furlongs further than ever before. A 7lb rise shouldn't stop him from putting in another big effort and he looks a decent bet at 2/1 BOG.

Bold Tara has really upped her game of late and finished second over course and distance here five weeks ago, before following up with a win her a fortnight ago over a shorter trip on heavy ground. She's up 10lbs for that win, but has a 7lb claimer on board which should help her on her 4th visit to Southwell, having won once and been placed on her other two runs, which were both over this trip and on soft ground. She could be a danger at 9/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with Bet365 as follows:
Newdane Dancer / Millers Reef @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1)
Newdane Dancer / Bold Tara @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2)
Logical Approach / Millers Reef @ 17/1
(5/1 & 2/1)
Logical Approach / Bold Tara @ 32/1 (5/1 & 9/2)