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Stat of the Day, 25th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.00 Beverley : Global Exceed @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up in rear, headway on wide outside chasing leaders 2f out, soon every chance, weakened towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indie Angel @ 9/4

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Fillies Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £9,962 to the winner...

Why?...

Early post tonight, as I'm out on a trip first thing tomorrow, but as usual, the unique Geegeez interactive racecard contains more supporting evidence/data than you could throw a stick at and it's all pretty self-explanatory.

In addition to that weight of evidence pointing towards a decent run for our money, we have an LTO winner dropping in class after an impressive victory over course and distance a fortnight ago.

All in all, there's enough above to hang a bet on, but SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't try to highlight an angle that might be unfamiliar to at least a few of you, so let's look at...

...trainer John Gosden's contribution to my "Late Summer Flat Hcps" microsystem. The name tells you exactly what I'm looking for and Mr G is one of a number of trainers of interest in what is usually the later part of the season. For the Gosden horses, I look at those running in Flat handicaps during July to September since 2016 and this gives me a starting point of...

...pretty solid numbers from blindly backing them, but they include of interest here...

  • 47/188 (25%) for 12.24pts (+6.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 39/146 (26.7%) for 31.4pts (+21.5%) in races worth less than £13k
  • 34/130 (26.2%) for 55.17pts (+42.4%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 21/69 (30.4%) for 30pts (+43.5%) at Class 3
  • 17/68 (25%) for 7.16pts (+10.5%) with females
  • 17/58 (29.3%) for 42.41pts (+73.1%) from class droppers
  • and 8/21 (38.1%) for 20.69pts (+98.5%) for today's jockey Nicky Mackay...

...whilst 3 yr olds in Class 3 3yo+ contests worth less than £13k are 14 from 36 (38.9% SR) for 16.9pts (+47% ROI), including 6 winners from 9 dropping down 1 class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Indie Angel @ 9/4 as was widely available at 9.35pm Friday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.