Posts

Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Musselburgh : City Tour @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Chased leaders on outside, went 2nd and hung right inside final furlong, ran on to lead towards finish op 3/1)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £12996 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding is the only course and distance winner on show here today, none of the other 10 rivals have won at this trip and only two have registered a victory on this track.

Our boy had a win and a place from 3 bumper runs and has since finished a very respectable 21512 over hurdles, only narrowly beaten LTO 34 days ago. He's by Axxos, whose hurdlers have won 7 of their 20 starts (35% SR) so far, whilst his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record here at Market Rasen from a fairly small number of runners.

Since 2010, NTD's runners are 18 from 98 (18.4% SR) here for 20.4pts (+20.8% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males are 16/89 (18%) for 24.4pts (+27.4%)
  • those priced at 6/4 to 10/1 are 14/67 (20.9%) for 27.1pts (+40.4%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 10/51 (19.6%) for 3.1pts (+6.1%)
  • since 2015 : 9/44 (20.5%) for 14.3pts (+32.5%)
  • and at trips of 2m5f to 2m7f : 10/40 (25%) for 25.8pts (+64.5%)

...whilst from the above... Sam's record on males priced at 6/4 to 10/1 = 7/32 (21.9%) for 15.3pts (+47.9%), including...

  • at 2m5f to 2m7f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.38pts (+64.5%)
  • 2018/19 : 3/6 (50%) for 7.13pts (+118.8%)
  • and at 2m5f-2m7f in 2018/19 = 1/1 (100%) for 2.25pts (+225%) from EarloftheCotswolds' run here two starts ago!

More generally in UK NH Handicap Hurdle contests since 2013, horses with the CD icon next to their name on the racecard who either won or were a top 4 finisher within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 274 from 1231 (22.3% SR) for 215.9pts (+17.5% ROI) backed blindly!

With today's race in mind, those 1231 runners can be filtered as follows...

  • males are 228/1016 (22.4%) for 193.5pts (+19.1%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 200/914 (21.9%) for 182.1pts (+19.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f to 3m : 170/695 (24.5%) for 272.1pts (+39.2%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 129/457 (28.2%) for 109.3pts (+23.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 85/317 (26.8%) for 199.6pts (+63%)

...and if you wanted a micro giving around 50 bets per year, then 5 to 11 yr old males racing over 2m1f to 3m at Class 3-5 some 11 to 60 days after their last run = 90 from 332 (27.1% SR) for 210.9pts (+63.5% ROI) and there's just one qualifier today...

...and that gives... a 1pt win bet on EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Tuesday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

1.20 Doncaster : Lola's Theme @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn early on race day, citing the going) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £37140 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher than today and although he hasn't raced in the last 189 days...(a) neither have most of his rivals and (b) when winning this last year, he was coming off a break of 192 days, so we know he can go well fresh.

He has 4 wins and 2 places from 17 efforts over fences and these include of relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good ground
  • 2 wins from 8 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Cheltenham
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • 1 from 2 at Class 2 (but has won at Gr 3!)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (last year's race)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' handicap chasers are going well right now winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 4.59pts (+20.9% ROI) over the last 30 days, but that's no real surprise to me, because since 2013 during the May to October period, his 5 to 10 yr old male handicap chasers have won 56 of 243 (23.1% SR) for 166.9pts (+68.7% ROI) when rested for at least 16 days.

Of these 243 runners and of note today...

  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 40/163 (24.5%) for 135.7pts (+83.3%)
  • on Good ground : 31/160 (19.4%) for 51.5pts (+32.2%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 5/1 : 36/112 (32.1%) for 63pts (+56.2%)
  • in October : 27/93 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 5 to 8 months are 12/53 (22.6%) for 23.3pts (+43.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/40 (15%) for 5.93pts (+14.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 11/38 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those competing for a prize worth £25k to £40k are 3/16 (18.75%) for 14.46pts (+90.4%)
  • previous course and distance winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 25.88pts (+172.5%)
  • and here at HQ : 3/10 (30%) for 15.32pts (+153.2%)

...AND...if you wanted just a handful of bets each year with a high strike rate and high yield, then Sam Twiston-Davies on those priced at 5/2 to 5/1 on Good ground or softer in September/October is 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 37.17pts (+92.9% ROI) with those coming off a break of 5 to 8 months winning 4 of 12 933.3%) for 9.64pts (+72%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2018

Saturday's Result :

11.30 Lingfield : Joegogo @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra closing stages.

Our first pick for 2018 runs in New Year's Day's...

2.35 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won each of his last three starts, all under today's jockey Tom Humphries (claiming a useful 7lbs) including a course and distance success here in this grade last time out, 17 days ago, taking the horse's record under today's conditions to...

  • 3/5 in fields of 8-11 runners & 3/4 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • No run on heavy, but 2/4 on soft & 3/3 with today's jockey
  • 2/3 at Class 2 & 1/1 here at Cheltenham
  • 1/1 at this trip, leading to 1/1 over C&D (that win LTO!)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record on heavy ground with his handicappers winning 36 of 228 (15.8% SR) for 57.6pts (+25.3% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...

  • males : 35/209 (16.75%) for 71.3pts (+34.1%)
  • December to March : 31/187 (16.6%) for 72.8pts (+38.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m2f : 13/82 (15.9%) for 24.8pts (+30.3%)

AND...males running 3m to 3m2f in December to March are 12/60 (20% SR) for 42.3pts (+70.6% ROI)

Also, since 2010, Nigel's LTO-winning handicap hurdlers are 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 23.7pts (+20.1% ROI) when sent off at odds ranging from 13/8 to 8/1 (we should be safe there!), from which...

  • those who ran in the last 45 days are 24/101 (23.8%) for 22.4pts (+22.1%)
  • males are 25/100 (25%) for 27.9pts (+27.9%)
  • at 3m/3m0.5f : 6/25 924%) for 18.8pts (+75.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 20.8pts (+86.8%)
  • and on heavy ground : 5/20 (25%) for 6.8pts (+34%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available from Betfair & Boylesports at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2018

Saturday's Result :

11.30 Lingfield : Joegogo @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra closing stages.

Our first pick for 2018 runs in New Year's Day's...

2.35 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won each of his last three starts, all under today's jockey Tom Humphries (claiming a useful 7lbs) including a course and distance success here in this grade last time out, 17 days ago, taking the horse's record under today's conditions to...

  • 3/5 in fields of 8-11 runners & 3/4 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • No run on heavy, but 2/4 on soft & 3/3 with today's jockey
  • 2/3 at Class 2 & 1/1 here at Cheltenham
  • 1/1 at this trip, leading to 1/1 over C&D (that win LTO!)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record on heavy ground with his handicappers winning 36 of 228 (15.8% SR) for 57.6pts (+25.3% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...

  • males : 35/209 (16.75%) for 71.3pts (+34.1%)
  • December to March : 31/187 (16.6%) for 72.8pts (+38.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m2f : 13/82 (15.9%) for 24.8pts (+30.3%)

AND...males running 3m to 3m2f in December to March are 12/60 (20% SR) for 42.3pts (+70.6% ROI)

Also, since 2010, Nigel's LTO-winning handicap hurdlers are 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 23.7pts (+20.1% ROI) when sent off at odds ranging from 13/8 to 8/1 (we should be safe there!), from which...

  • those who ran in the last 45 days are 24/101 (23.8%) for 22.4pts (+22.1%)
  • males are 25/100 (25%) for 27.9pts (+27.9%)
  • at 3m/3m0.5f : 6/25 924%) for 18.8pts (+75.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 20.8pts (+86.8%)
  • and on heavy ground : 5/20 (25%) for 6.8pts (+34%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available from Betfair & Boylesports at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

1.35 Wincanton : Virgilio @ 5/2 BOG - PU at 7/4 (Pressed leader, pushed along when hit 13th and lost 2nd, soon outpaced and struggling, tailed off 4 out, soon pulled up)

Many thanks to Steve for stepping into the breech in my absence, but I'm glad to be back with Monday's pick, which goes in the...

1.30 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Pop @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, Nigel Twiston-Davies' runners are 17 from 61 (27.8% SR) for 22.9pts (+37.6% ROI) with handicap chasers winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) with Ryan Hatch riding 13 of those 16, including 4 winners (30.8%).

Little Pop is 131 in his last three outings, and won a Class 4, 2 mile handicap chase fairly comfortably by 2.5 lengths when last seen at Hereford a month ago, making him of further interest here, because...

...since the start of 2010, male chasers aged 6-9 who won a hcp chase LTO by 2-10 lengths, 11-150 days ago are 148/557 (26.6% SR) for 109.4pts (+19.7% ROI), including..

  • 136/488 (27.9%) for 97.2pts (+19.9%) from those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days
  • 55/234 (23.5%) for 47.7pts (+20.4%) from those who won by 2-4 lengths LTO
  • and 42/146 (28.8%) for 59.1pts (+410.4%) from 8 yr olds

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Little Pop at 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Hills at 7.00pm on Sunday, with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

1.35 Wincanton : Virgilio @ 5/2 BOG - PU at 7/4 (Pressed leader, pushed along when hit 13th and lost 2nd, soon outpaced and struggling, tailed off 4 out, soon pulled up)

Many thanks to Steve for stepping into the breech in my absence, but I'm glad to be back with Monday's pick, which goes in the...

1.30 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Pop @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, Nigel Twiston-Davies' runners are 17 from 61 (27.8% SR) for 22.9pts (+37.6% ROI) with handicap chasers winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) with Ryan Hatch riding 13 of those 16, including 4 winners (30.8%).

Little Pop is 131 in his last three outings, and won a Class 4, 2 mile handicap chase fairly comfortably by 2.5 lengths when last seen at Hereford a month ago, making him of further interest here, because...

...since the start of 2010, male chasers aged 6-9 who won a hcp chase LTO by 2-10 lengths, 11-150 days ago are 148/557 (26.6% SR) for 109.4pts (+19.7% ROI), including..

  • 136/488 (27.9%) for 97.2pts (+19.9%) from those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days
  • 55/234 (23.5%) for 47.7pts (+20.4%) from those who won by 2-4 lengths LTO
  • and 42/146 (28.8%) for 59.1pts (+410.4%) from 8 yr olds

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Little Pop at 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Hills at 7.00pm on Sunday, with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2016

Tuesday's Result :

5.10 Brighton : Virile @ 9/2 non-BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Fell out of the stalls, missed the break and slowly into stride, held up, towards rear, good headway on wide outside over 1f out, chased winner and every chance well inside final furlong, just held off by a head)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Templehills at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Well, it's quite a simple one tonight/today, depending on when you're reading this.

August to October has become known as "Twister Season", due to the success at this time of year of Nigel Twiston Davies and his jumpers.

NTD / 5-10 yr olds / Chases & Hurdles / August-October / 2008-16 = 165/730 (22.6% SR) for 401.2pts (+55% ROI) and you could stop there, but I won't!

Of these 730 runners...

  • males are 153/652 (23.5%) for 384.7pts (+59%)
  • hurdlers are 71/327 (21.7%) for 257.6pts (+78.9%)
  • non-handicappers are 69/263 (26.2%) for 218.4pts (+83%)
  • 5 yr olds are 45/177 (28.4%) for 169.2pts (+95.6%)
  • LTO winners are 35/144 (24.3%) for 42.9pts (+29.8%)

AND..male non-hcp hurdlers are 36/142 (25.4% SR) for 183.9ts (+129.5% ROI), of which...

  • 5 yr olds are 20/79 (25.3%) for 125.7pts (+159.2%)
  • LTO winners are 9/29 (31%) for 9.83pts (+33.9%)
  • and in 2016 : 6/12 (50%) for 6.04pts (+50.3%)

with 5 yr old male non-hcp hurdlers who won LTO winning 5 of 15 (33.3%) for 4.2pts at an ROI of 28%, which is a pretty good return for an exposed MO...

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Templehills at 11/4 BOG, which was offered in a half dozen or so places at 6.25pm on Tuesday. I'd use Bet365 if possbile, in case it drifts and we can get BOG plus but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ludlow.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2016

Monday's Result :

5.25 Epsom : Crowning Glory @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden out to beat Ripoll by a length and a quarter, comfortably enough in the end)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG

Why?

A handicap debut now beckons for this 7 yr old gelding who won a maiden over 2m 0.5f at Bangor by 9 lengths last time out, 11 days ago. He was rated at 113 that day and even taking into consideration that his jockey had a 3lb claim there, today's opening handicap mark of 114 might prove to be a little lenient.

Sam Twiston-Davies will ride for dad Nigel and Sam is in good nick. I saw him ride a near-15/1 double at Cartmel on Saturday and he always relishes riding for "the family".

This time of year has become known as "Twister Season" in many quarters, but for those of you not familiar with it, it's basically the right time of year for backing Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers.

What you need is a 5 to 10 yr old NTD-trained hurdler running in August/September/October and that's it. Back them all since 1st August 2008 and you've 64 winners from 303 (21.1% SR) and a £20 stake on each would have made you £5186 profit at a very attractive 85.6% ROI.

If you don't want 10-12 bets per month from just one angle in your portfolio, some sensible/logical filters include...

  • 5-8 yr olds, who are 60/273 (22%) for 254pts (+93%)
  • males are 55/250 (22%) for 236.2pts (+94.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 38/149 (25.5%) for 246.1pts (+165.2%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 33/145 (22.8%) for 174.6pts (+120.4%)
  • and those competing over 1m 7.5f to 2m 0.5f are 18/65 (27.7%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)

AND...5-8 yr old males ridden by Sam in a Class 4 race are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 160.5pts (+281.6% ROI)

And to be perfectly honest, that's enough to be able to base a bet on, but I do like to give a little more where possible, so we could also look at the fate of Nigel's handicap hurdlers turned back out with 30 days of a win and we see that since 2008, they are 21 from 115 (18.3% SR) for 36pts (+31.3% ROI).

Convinced now? Or do you need one more? Oh, go on then...Nigel Twiston-Davies' NH handicap debutants are 29/159 (18.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+65.4% ROI) since the start of 2010 with hurdlers providing 25 of those winners from 139 efforts (18%), generating level stakes profits of 101.2pts at an ROI of 72.8%.

And of those 139 hurdling handicap debutants, Class 4 runners are 14/62 (22.6%) for 78pts (+125.8%), whilst those racing over 2m / 2m 0.5f are 6/21 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+259.5%) and that's your lot for today...

...so, it's time to place...a 1pt win bet on Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG, with either Bet365 or Hills who jointly headed the market at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2016

Monday's Result :

3.45 Brighton: Brave Archibald @ 10/ E/W BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Short of room start, in touch towards rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, driven and stayed on to go 2nd final strides). On a tough day stats-wise, I was very pleased to emerge with a small profit of half a point to keep the ball rolling.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

Over the last two years, this 9 yr old gelding has proved to be remarkably consistent, with 11 top 3 finishes from 13 efforts and was a winner by a length and a quarter in a 3m contest last time out at Perth almost four weeks ago.

He's trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose handicap hurdlers are 21/112 (18.75% SR) for 39pts (+34.8% ROI) profit when turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out. And of more pertinence today, we can filter those 112 runners down as follows...

  • males are 19/94 (20.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+46% ROI)
  • on ground deemed good, good to soft or soft : 18/85 (21.2% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 : 16/76 (21.1% SR) for 21.9pts (+28.9% ROI)
  • those raised 2 to 7lbs for that LTO win are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at trips of 2m5f and beyond : 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+90.8% ROI)
  • racing 26 to 30 days after that LTO win : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 38.6pts (+275.9% ROI)

I should also touch on the fact that Nigel's son Sam will be in the saddle and Sam's record on his dad's Class 4 male hurdlers currently stands at 63 winners from 350 (18% SR) for decent level stakes profits of some 124.8pts (+35.7% ROI), with those horses running beyond 3m winning 10 of 43 (23.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% ROI).

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor, who were the standout BOG bookies at 6.30pm, whilst Betfred, Ladbrokes and Totesport were all quoting the same odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until the day of the race. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Huntingdon

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Stat of the Day, 31st March 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Exeter: Umberto D'Olivate @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Made all, pushed along before 3 out, joined next, ridden and headed before last, one pace run-in)

The last of a dismal month, Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.45 Bangor:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

I Am Colin @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner on his last hurdles outing in March 2015, so he clearly likes this time of year, but he was then off the track for 8 months before returning as a chaser, where in 4 runs to date he has progressively improved with finishes of 3221.

He lost by a short head (2m4f , heavy) at Warwick two starts ago when carried right by the drifting winner, Merchant of Milan, in a race he should probably have been awarded in the stewards' room, but made amends by romping to a 9 length success last time out with Merchant of Milan 30 lengths behind him. That was 30 days ago, over 2m 6.5f on heavy ground at Leicester, so I am Colin shouldn't be found lacking in stamina today.

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is getting a fine tune from his runners at present, as typified by the yard's 5 winners from 13 runners in the last week and they do pretty well here at Bangor when expected to ie when there's some market suport, but not hammered!

In numerical terms, we're talking NTD at Bangor, 2010-16 at 9/4 to 15/2. Which equation gives us 8 winners from 35 (22.9% SR) for 15pts (+42.8% ROI) profit and although this is a small sample size (I've a bigger one for you shortly, oo-er missus!), it does throw up some interesting (to me, anyway) profitable angles relating to today's contest, namely...

  • males are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.7pts (+45.3% ROI)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 14.5pts (+55.6% ROI)
  • chasers are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 10.2pts (+53.7% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground, they are 4/16 (25% SR) for 5.7pts (+35.6% ROI)
  • in hcp chases : 4/16 (25% SR) for 3.7pts (+23.1% ROI)
  • over this 2m4.5f trip : 2/6 (33.33% SR) for 10.2pts (+170.2% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 2/4 (50% SR) for 9.36pts (+234% ROI)

And if we look at the horse, I am Colin's last outing, it reinforces the selection, as since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were LTO winners of a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days ago went on to win again on 131 of 509 (25.7% SR) follow-up runs, generating level stakes profits of 84.4pts at a healthy ROI of 16.6% from blind backing.

I fully appreciate that not many people want to blindly blind a subset of 509 runners over 6 and a bit years, so we can refine the selections as follows...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 are 106/439 (24.2% SR) for 99.6pts (+22.7% ROI)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f to 3m2f are 71/281 (25.3% SR) for 92.3pts (+32.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 21 to 45 days ago are 66/248 (26.6% SR) for 75.3pts (+30.4% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 63/208 (30.3% SR) for 59.9pts (+28.8% ROI)
  • those running on soft ground are 27/101 (26.7% SR) for 22.6pts (+22.4% ROI)
  • and here at Bangor: 6/20 (30% SR) for 4.3pts (+21.5% ROI)

and since 2011, those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 over 2m4.5f to 3m2f who won by 5 to 10 lengths 21 to 75 days ago are 20/46 (43.5% SR) for 62.2pts (+135.2% ROI), of which those running on soft ground are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 19.1pts (+147.2% ROI) and those racing here at Bangor are 3/4 (75% SR) for 8.8pts (+220% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on I am Colin at 7/2 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms offering the same price. To see what odds your bookie is giving...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Bangor

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Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Brrrrrrrr, it's bloody chilly here in the SotD chair at the moment and I'm struggling to buy a winner.

No complaints though from me (and thankfully, you guys!), as we all know it's part of the cyclical nature of sticking one's head above the parapet to be shot at on a daily basis!

For the record, Monday's runner, Stardrifter had a stinker. Sent off at our advised 7/2 odds, he dwelt towards the rear of the pack and never really got involved, finishing 8th of 11 around four lengths off the pace.

I'm hoping a change of code and a famous family can bring about a halt to this poor run in the...

4.10 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

There's a possibility that during this recent losing spell, I've tried a bit too hard or been a bit too complicated in an effort to spark a return to form, so today is a back to basics job with the Twiston-Davies's for this Class 3, 3m 1.5f chase on good ground, where 22 yr old Sam rides the 7/2 BOG Belmount for his dad Nigel, making this a notable selection for several reasons.

  1. In Class 3/4 chases of up to 3m2f since the start of 2012, Sam has ridden 76 winners (21.7% SR) from 350 for dad Nigel for a profit of 160.4pts at an ROI of 45.8%.
  2. Nigel's 5 to 10 yr old chasers are 61/248 (24.6% SR) for 109.6pts (+44.2% ROI) in the months of August to October inclusive since the beginning of August 2010. Of those 248 runners, 5/6 yr old males are 25/65 (38.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+84.7% ROI).
  3. Over the last 10 yrs Nigel has an 18.8% strike rate (16/85) in chases here at Warwick with Class 3/4 runners winning 14 of 63 (22.2% SR), those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) whilst those running at trips of 3m0.5f to 3m2f have won 10 of 28 (35.7% SR).

All of which gives us the belief of a good run from Belmount, a horse who is 1 from 1 here at Warwick, courtesy of a win over hurdles at a similar trip to today (3m2f). He's 1/1 over fences and also 1/1 at Class 3 level. He has won both starts on good ground, has four wins from six when priced at 4/1 or shorter and is 3 from 5 when young Sam is in the saddle.

Taking all those into consideration, 7/2 BOG doesn't look a bad price for Belmount and I've gone with Hills this time, but with seven other firms also matching that price, you really should...

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Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2015

It's not often that you see a horse putting in its best efforts staying on in a 3m1f chase on heavy ground and trying to win the race from miles off the pace. However, that's how Chavoy ran on Wednesday. He has bags of stamina, but just had too much to do in the closing stages to win.

A mistake 5 from home didn't help either and although he looked full of running at the death, we had to settle for the runner-up berth at 7/2, a half point shorter than advised. 5/5 last week and now 0/3 this week means we need a winner soon to keep things moving, although fellow optimists will say we're actually 6/9 of late. Hopefully we'll be 7/10 after Thursday's...

2.20 Warwick:

And a family affair with Sam Twiston-Davies riding the in-form Bally Braes for his father, Nigel, in this Class 4, 3m2f handicap chase on soft ground with them both having good records here at Warwick.

Father and trainer Nigel...

...has had 28 winners from his 156 runners at this track since 2008 with that 17.95% strike rate yielding 107.7pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 69% and with today's contest in mind, his record in handicap chases here since 2010 with horses priced in the 2/1 to 11/2 bracket readig 4 winers from 17 (23.5% SR) for 5.7pts (+33.6% ROI)

Son and jockey Sam...

...is 19/110 (17.3% SR) here at Warwick since the start of 2010 and in the last three years in handicap chases here at odds of 2/1 to 15/2, has won 5 of 17 (29.4% SR) for 14.7pts (+86.3% ROI) profit.

And together, they make a good team...

Since the start of 2010, Sam has ridden 267 winners from 1767 rides on his dad's runners. This 15.1% strike is more than respectable, but the level stakes profits of just 4.4pts give an ROI of a mere 0.25%. They're basically wiping their faces, but it's a starting point for further analysis.

In handicap chases, over the last three years, for example, they have won 72 of 486 (14.8% SR) races together, accruing 90pts profit at an ROI of 18.5%, a far more palatable return for SotD purposes!

Bally Braes was a winner last time out...

...and Nigel's male chasers who won last time around have "doubled up" 31 times from 186 attempts (16.7% SR) for 11.3pts (+6.1% ROI) profit and from this baseline stat, we can put today's race into perspective as follows...

Horses running off a mark 4 to 15lbs higher than LTO (9 today) : 25/150 (16.7% SR) for 15pts (+10% ROI)
Horses carrying 10-5 to 10-12 (10-11 here) : 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 31.4pts (+76.5% ROI)
Class 4 races : 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 27.2pts (+62.2% ROI)
Running at same class as LTO : 16/77 (20.8% SR) for 18.6pts (+24.2% ROI)
Up in trip (up 1.5f today) : 17/94 (18.1% SR) for 16pts (+17% ROI)
Ran in the last 25 days (ran 16 days ago) : 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 39.1pts (+43.4% ROI)
Sam T-D in the saddle : 16/93 (17.2% SR) for 20pts (+21.5% ROI)

All the above are profitable angles for Nigel's LTO winners in chases and you can perm them together to your heart's content, but it does dramatically reduce the sample size!

That win LTO was a novice chase...

...and since 2008, horses rated 105 to 115 (Bally Braes is 105!) running in handicap chases on the back of a win in a novice chase last time out, have gone on to win 92 of 375 (24.5% SR) for 46.3pts (+12.3% ROI) profit, which is a nice little angle. We could leave it there, but it wouldn't be be one of my SotD ramblngs if I didn't drill down to refine/improve the numbers, would it?

So, from that 92/375 stat...

...horses with a maximum of 25 total career runs at all codes/disciplines (BB has run 9 times) have a record reading 87/337 (25.8% SR) for 56.8pts (+16.9% ROI).

From which, those running within 45 days of that last run are 76/273 (27.8% SR) for 64.2pts (+23.5% ROI).

And with a simple 15/2 odds cap imposed, we are left with 74/240 (30.8% SR) for 67.5pts (+28.1% ROI) profit. That's three logical simple filters that have increased the strike rate by almost 26% and the ROI by 128.4%! And that's why I run the risk of boring you all with my multi-stat carpet bombing approach!

After a pretty uninspiring 0/6 spell over hurdles, Bally Braes seems to have taken well to chasing. He was second on his chasing bow almost 7 weeks ago at Huntingdon, where he made a couple of jumping errors, including one at the last fence, which might have made the difference between winning and the 1.5 length defeat he suffered. That was over three miles and he was staying on strongly at the end.

Then 16 days, ago he stepped up by half a furlong and tackled soft ground and was a winner by just over three lengths. He had company until 2 out, before staying on strongly again to win, suggesting that today's extra 300 yards or so will suit him. He did make another couple of mistakes last time out, but his jumping did look to have improved and it would be no surprise to see him come on again today.

So, it's Bally Braes for me and it's a 1pt win bet at 17/5 BOG with Betbright with Bet365 the next best at 100/30 BOG . Either of those is more than satisfactory. To see a fuller picture of the market...

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Stat of the Day, 10th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2014

No excuses, no ifs, no buts or whatevers, Pearl Noir ran an absolute stinker at Southwell on Tuesday afternoon.

Were there any positives to glean from yesterday's piece, well maybe. We got the right trainer, I suppose, as Scott Dixon's "other runner", Incomparable was a pretty comfortable 20/1 winner of a race that none of the fancied picks made the first three home. In fact, the tricast paid almost £8,000. Eight grand! (as a famous Bolton comedian might say!)

A further clutching of the straws shows that the 9/4 SP of our runner was half of the 9/2 we'd taken earlier, but 13th of 14 runners and beaten by over 12 lengths in a 5f sprint just isn't what either myself or SotD is about. The beauty of a daily feature is that I don't have to wait long for an opportunity of redemption, which I'm hoping will come in Wednesday's...

3.10 Leicester:

Where the Twiston-Davies team of father & trainer Nigel along with son & jockey Sam have high hopes of continued progression from their 5yr old Brownville who makes his handicap debut here today and is available to back at 4/1 BOG in a couple of places.

Let's start with trainer & dad Nigel's record here at Leicester...

Well, Nigel doesn't actually send too many runners here to be honest, just 78 in the last seven years, but with 14 winners providing an 18% strike rate and 26.6pts profit at an ROI of 34.1%, it's not a lack of success keeping him away, nor should be a logistics issue with just a 130-mile round trip to navigate.

Son Sam rides his dad's horses very well...

And if you backed every single one priced at 14/1 or shorter over the last 5 years, you'd have backed 116 winners from 553 (21% SR) runners and your level stakes profits of 92.2pts would equate to 16.7% of your stakes or £5 profit from every £30 wagered, which doesn't sound much, but it soon adds up over a longer period. If, as today, the Sam/Nigel partnership is priced between 11/8 & 9/2, there have been 65 winners from 214 runners in the same time frame, with that impressive 30.4% strike rate yielding 53.6pts profit and an ROI of 25%.

And when Sam rides for his dad here at Leicester, he has won 9 of 45 rides (20% SR) for 25pts (+55.6% ROI) profit.

Nigel is a dab hand at getting unexposed handicappers to win...

In the last five years, he has sent out 557 runners with less than five handicap runs to their name and with 87 of them winning, this more than respectable 15.6% strike rate has produced 128.6pts (+23.1%ROI) level stakes profit and of those, 120 were (like Brownville today) making their handicap debut. 20 of 120 (16.7% SR) were winners, resulting in profits of 90.5pts (+75.4% ROI) and those 120 runners can be further scrutinised as follows:

From the 120 handicap debutants...

19/106 (17.9% SR) were hurdlers producing 101.8pts (+96% ROI) profit, with a record of 11/24 (45.8% SR) at odds of below 5/1 generating 21.5pts at an ROI of 89.6%. Sam Twiston-Davies rode 7 winners from 15 runners (46.7% SR) on handicap debut priced below 5/1 and made 13.7pts (+91.3% ROI) for his followers.

Brownville is by Kayf Tara, whose progeny fare well at this track...

62 of Kayf Tara's offspring have run here in the past with the 13 winners providing a 21% strike rate and 62.4pts profit at an ROI of 100.6%. Their record over hurdles is 6/25 (24% SR) for 37pts (+148% ROI), with all 6 winners coming from the 17 runners priced at 12/1 or shorter with that 35.3% strike rate producing profits of 45pts (+264.7% ROI).

Kayf Tara's offspring make for good handicap hurdlers too...

In the last two years, horses by Kayf Tara and aged 5 and over have won 33 of the 94 (35.1% SR) handicap hurdle races in which they have been priced at 11/2 or shorter. This excellent strike rate has rewarded backers with level stakes profits of 60.1pts (+64% ROI)

Sam has only ridden two Kayf Tara horses for his dad over hurdles here at Leicester in the past. Kaylif Aramis was third in November 2012, whilst Mini Muck was a winner over today's trip a year ago at 9/2.

Brownville has been progressing nicely since making his debut under Rules in April of this year. Prior to that, he had won once and placed three times in six 3 mile point to point races, so stamina shouldn't be an issue today, especially with good efforts in the mud. He won one of his two bumpers at Ludlow and was second in the other one, finishing ahead of subsequent dual winner Nicholas Chauvin in the process.

Brownville was then second (beaten by just 6 lengths) on his hurdling debut over 2m4f, where he plugged on well, despite a 6-month break from racing, to be the nearest rival to Private Malone who has since stepped up in class to win again and his next/last run came at Ludlow almost foru wekks ago when he got to within less than 2.5 lengths of the winner over 2m5f.

Conditions look ideal for Brownville today and if his progression continues as expected, then we should be cashing in from a 1pt win bet at 4/1 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook. For the rest of the prices on this race...

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Stat of the Day, 17th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2014

No joy for us at Brighton, I'm afraid, as Stybba went down to a defeat by almost two lengths back in third place. She ran well enough in fairness and had every chance, but looked a little reluctant to try and pass the leaders.

Oisin Murphy tried at least twice to get her to attempt to go around the two in front, but each time she wanted to tuck herself back to the left and sit in behind the leaders to the line. It was a bit of a pity as we'd looked well set to cash in a 7/2 ticket from a 2/1 favourite, but there'll be other days!

I'm hoping Friday will be one of those other days with our runner in the...

2.05 Cheltenham:

A Class 2 Novice Hurdle over 2m5f on good to soft ground where Nigel Twiston-Davies' 5 yr old, 5/2 BOG shot, Blaklion attempts to defend his unbeaten three race career under Rules.

Nigel's a dab hand in these Novice events...

With a record reading 169 winners from 1067 (15.8% SR) for 347.7pts (+32.5% ROI) profit since 2008, with Novice Hurdles proving particularly profitable with 386.6pts profit accrued at an ROI of 57.8% via 98 winners from 669 (14.7% SR).

His yard is in unsurprisingly  good form...

3 winners from 10 in the last fortnight (30% SR) and 6 from 29 in the last month (20.7% SR) are what we've come to expect from NTD at this time of year. Since 2008 the months of September and October have been excellent for his yard with 122 winners from 627 runners (19.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 259pts at an ROI of 41.3% with his hurdlers winning 50 of 279 races (17.9% SR) for profits of 204.8pts (+73.4% ROI).

The bulk of the runners and profits come in October, where his record reads 78/427 (18.3% SR) for 202.9pts at 47.5% ROI. Once again his hurdlers have excelled winning 33 of 174 races (19% SR) and earning backers a fantastic 184.3pts, and that's £10.59 profit from every £10 bet placed!

Here at Cheltenham in October, the team has had 6 winners from 29 (20.7% SR) for 20.3pts (+70.1% ROI)

After winning a PTP, Blaklion is now 3/3 under rules...

Since 2009, unbeaten horses contesting hurdles races at Classes 1 to 3 (ie pretty decent standard!) have managed to maintain their 100% status on 94 of 295 (31.9% SR) occasions. And these winners have produced profits of 93pts to date at an ROI of 31.5%.

From this...5 yr olds (Like Blaklion) are 41/120 (34.2% SR) for 31.5pts (+26.3% ROI)
Those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 89/220 (40.5% SR) for 90.4pts (+41.1% ROI) and...
...those with 4 or fewer runs to their name are 87/277 (31.4% SR) for 97.3pts (+35.1% ROI) profit.

You can actually mix and match those above to your heart's content and I won't bore/overload you with the permutations, but I will finish with this one...

Unbeaten 5 to 7 yr olds running in Class 1 to 3 hurdles races with 4 or fewer runs to their name have a 55/148 (37.2% SR) record when priced below 9/1 and these runners have made 78.9pts profit at an ROI of 53.3%.

So, a horse in form, a yard in form and a yard that does well at this time of year. Blaklion has won on good ground and also on soft ground, there's no reason why he won't get good to soft. He won over 2m 4.5f at Perth last time out and despite returning from a 21-week break still had plenty in hand. he'll strip fitter for that run and the extra half furlong shouldn't inconvenience him too much, especially as most of his rivals might just need the run.

A little shorter than my usual selections, but I'm more than happy with a 1pt win bet on Blaklion at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports today. For all the other firms' prices...

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Stat of the Day, 1st September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2014

Saturday's performance was a marked improvement upon the previous two days', but in fairness things couldn't have got much worse.

As it was, Strumble Head was only beaten on the run in having jumped the last almost neck and neck with the eventual winner. Sometimes, you just find one too good for your selection and that was the case at Market Rasen, pure and simple, no excuses.

The fact that our runner was 23 lengths clear of the next horse showed it was a good pick after two clunkers and although August was marginally profitable, it has never been one of my better months and I'm glad to see the back of it.

We kick off the new month with a 3m2f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle aka the...

4.50 Huntingdon:

And a 4/1 BOG bet on Nigel Twiston-Davies' 8 yr old mare Dazzling Rita.

You're possibly already aware that this late summer/early autumn period is generally a very productive time for the NTD yard, but in case, you weren't sure, here are some details...

Over the last six years in the August to October (inclusive) period, Nigel's "jumpers" have won 125 of 571 races at a strike rate of 21.9% which has, in turn, generated level stakes profits of 347.2pts at an ROI of some 60.8%.

And, if those figures aren't impressive enough for you, his hurdlers have made the bulk of the profit.

The hurdlers have won 50 of 224 races at a slightly lower strike rate of 20.5%, but the level stakes profits of 251.7pts represent a return of 103.1% above all stakes invested.

NTD runs two horses here today, but Seacon Beg runs in the later bumper, leaving Dazzling Rita as his only runner tacking obstacles and therefore, is the default choice.

She ran really well last time out at Southwell a fortnight ago to finish within six lengths of Kilfinichen Bay who subsequently won again a week later off a 7lb higher mark. Our selection was making her reappearance after a 62-week break from the track and although she never looked like catching the winner, she stayed on well to beat her other nine rivals home.

She was entitled to have needed that run after such a lengthy absence and it is expected that she'll come on for having had that run.

She's by Midnight Legend, whose offspring have won 217 of 1297 races over obstacles since 2008. This 16.7% strike rate has so far generated a huge 617.7pts profit at an ROI of 47.6%. Those horses running here at Huntingdon are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 14.8pts (+42.3% ROI).

1297 races is a massive sample size incorporating several large priced winners, so it can sometimes be of benefit to show an odds breakdown and if we do the following...

Priced below 12/1 : 193 winners from 816 (23.7% SR) for 258.9pts (+31.7% ROI) with the record here at Huntingdon being 10/25 (40% SR) for 24.8pts (+99.2% ROI).

And those running at 6/1 or shorter : 152/507 (30% SR) for 119.5pts (+23.6% ROI) with a 9/19 (47.4% SR) record here at Huntingdon for 18.4pts (+96.9% ROI).

Dazzling Rita should benefit from her outing a fortnight and provided she has rested well in between races, looks set to improve on that run. Her victor has gone on to in again, so we've every chance of success from a 1pt win bet on Dazzling Rita at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. The 7/2 BOG on offer from Hills is next best, as you'll see when you...

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