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Stat of the Day, 27th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

12.15 Doncaster : National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG (3/1 after a 20p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 10/3 (Awkwardly away, soon prominent towards far side, led over 1f out, ridden and ran on well to win by a length) - Nice to get back amongst the winners again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 3 contest for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Tapeta worth £20,983 to the winner... 

Why?...

They say a picture paints a thousand words, so today's piece is going to rely heavily on visuals, starting with...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...the unique Geegeez racecard...

...which has a red number 2, which when clicked opens...

...then the pace/draw heat map for 5-6 runners contests over C&D...

...and the GGZ Speed Rating of 85...

She won nicely at Redcar nine days ago off the back of a 231 day absence. I actually backed her that day too, so I'm very aware that more is needed from her today, but she should hopefully come on for having had the run and she did look like she had plenty more to give if needed.

The step up in class allied to this being her debut on Tapeta (14 Flat runs and 2 on Poly @ Lingfield, including a third place in a Listed event under Tom Marquand when beaten by less than a length) are the reasons why she's as big as 5/1 in a 6-runner field, but surely there's some value there.

I do think I've already got enough evidence to suggest she's worth putting my cash down on her, but let's also briefly consider trainer William Haggas who has a great record when introducing previously raced horses to a new A/W surface for the first time ie...

...impressive stuff indeed, and here are 10 (relevant today) ways Mr Haggas got those 60 winners...

  • 56 from 142 (39.4%) for 72.3pts (+50.9%) over trips of 7f to 1m5f
  • 46 from 119 (38.7%) for 62.93pts (+52.9%) ran on the Flat LTO
  • 34 from 91 (37.4%) for 27.65pts (+30.4%) in non-handicaps
  • 31 from 79 (39.2%) for 86.54pts (+109.54%) at odds ranging from 5/2 to 9/1
  • 24 from 61 (39.3%) for 13.31pts (+21.8%) on Tapeta
  • 11 from 28 (39.3%) for 7.2pts (+25.7%) here at Newcastle
  • 7 from 12 (58.3%) for 15.19pts (+126.6%) in races worth £17k to £30k
  • 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 8.84pts (+46.5%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle
  • 5 from 11 (45.5%) for 8.73pts (+79.3%) at Class 1
  • and 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 0.79pts (+7.18%) from those stepping up by two classes or more

As ever, we can put some of the above together to form a composite micro-angle (long-term readers love a good composite), but we run the risk of diluting the dataset by adding more filters. However, (returning back to the visuals), you could try...

...from which...

...and they include...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!