Tag Archive for: Oliver Stammers

Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/04/22

Wednesday's free feature, the Trainer Stats (TS) report is actually four reports in one with information on a trainer’s recent (14/30 day) form, and their longer term (1/5 yrs) course form and they can be filtered by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this report, we still have our daily selection of free racecards and they're going to be for the...

  • 3.50 Pontefract
  • 5.20 Punchestown
  • 5.35 Brighton
  • 7.15 Brighton
  • 7.45 Punchestown

I tend to shy away from this Punchestown meeting and the three UK flat races hold little appeal to me, but my fairly restrictive settings for the TS report have highlighted the fact that trainer Grant Tuer has made hay at Musselburgh in the last twelve months and has a couple of 4 yr old, Class 6, gelding handicappers out on Wednesday, both to be ridden by 3lb claimer Oliver Stammers...

The going is expected to be good and Mokaman runs at 7.25 over a straight 5f, whilst Buford goes an hour later at 8.25 over a right-handed 1m4½f. Since the start of the 2018 season, Grant Tuer's handicappers here have made the frame in 19 (54.3%) of their 35 runs, going on to win 9 (25.7%) of them and these include of relevance today...

  • 15 placers from 24 (62.5%) from males including 7 winners (29.2%)
  • 9 placers from 20 (45%) at Class 6 including 4 winners (20%)
  • 12 placers from 18 (66.6%) on Good ground including 6 winners (33.3%)
  • 7 placers from 13 (53.8%) from 4 yr olds including 5 winners (38.%)
  • 6 placers from 10 (60%) over 5f, but just 1 winner (10%)
  • 3 placers from 3 (100%) in April with one winner (33.3%)
  • just one placer from three (33.3%) over 1m4½f, but it was a winner at least

Oliver Stammers hasn't ridden in a handicap here for Grant Tuer, but there are some encouraging stats above (sex, class, going, age in particular) especially from a place / EW perspective. Let's now have a look at the runners, starting with Mokaman, who faces 12 rivals in the 7.25 Musselburgh...

Mokaman is far better on turf where he has 2 wins and a place from 8 starts as opposed to his 0 from 13 A/W record where he has only made the frame twice. He's currently on an eight losing run, although five of them were on tapeta at Newcastle and Southwell in the first three months of this year.

He ran well enough for much of his turf reappearance a week ago at Catterick before weakening late on to a 3.75 length defeat as fifth home of ten. He goes again off the same mark here and probably wouldn't need to improve too much to make the frame, especially with his jockey able to claim 3lbs here.

That said, Oliver Stammers isn't in the best of form (14 30), nor is trainer Grant Tuer, so both will be looking for a boost. Oliver is winless in 28 rides over the past month, during which time Grant's runners are 0/22 and they're 0/12 together, which is a worry.

Mokaman has won on good ground, has won at Class 6 and has 2 wins and a place from 8 starts over 5f on turf and now runs off a mark some 11lbs lower than his last win just under 11 months ago...

As you can see there he's drawn in stall 12 of 13 and the initial suspicion is that apart from not having a rail to run along, the draw shouldn't make a huge difference on a straight 5f, but it appears that according to the stats that a low draw isn't as helpful as you might think...

...and that 30.16% place strike rate is good news for our boy here who tends to run in either mid-division or slightly further forward a little closer to the leaders. He certainly hasn't done much front-running and is rarely held up for a late run and it would appear that he has the perfect pace profile for this type of race...

Prominent/Mid-Division runners have a combined 57 places from 201 runs (28.4%), winning 23 times (11.4%), which is far better than leaders or hold-up horses achieve.

*

An hour later is when we'll get to see top weight Buford take on eight rivals in the 8.25 Musselburgh...

...and again the stats from before ring true about the form of both trainer and jockey over the last few weeks, but Buford did win five starts ago back in mid-August when scoring over 1m2½f off a mark of 61 in a Class 5 contest at Doncaster. He clearly needed the run when fifth of six on soft ground at Catterick recently, beaten by over 25 lengths three weeks ago. In fairness, he hadn't raced for six months, he's not fond of soft ground and he was tackling soft ground off 62 over a first crack at 1m6f.

In his defence, he's on quicker ground here, he's had the run, he's down 2lbs, he's down in class and down in trip, so we could see better from him and he only really faded out of contention in the final quarter mile last time around. On the face of things, this inexperienced runner (just five flat races so far) doesn't look well suited on Instant Expert...

...but he has won a Class 5 race, a feat that only Lightning Attack (5 from 8 at C5) and Three Castles (4 from 12) of his rivals have achieved, so he's possibly better than that graphic might suggest, but it does verify that he's a pound lower than his last/only win. Like his stablemate an hour earlier, Buford has a wide (9 of 9) draw and our draw analysis says that this isn't a great place to be...

...but those drawn in 9 or 10 in 8-10 runner races have 4 places from 14 (28.6%), winning twice (14.3%), which doesn't set too many alarm bells ringing if you look at stalls 1-8...

And apart from his comeback run LTO, he likes to race prominently...

...which is a definite positive here...

Summary

Both of Grant Tuer's horses could very well go on to win here, but I'm really concerned about the form of both yard and jockey. That said, the horses are both good enough to make the frame and whilst I'm not convinced that either are worth backing to win their races, I'd be more interested in an E/W bet.

I took my first look at the markets at 5.30pm and Mokaman was priced at 8/1 with Bet365 offering four places, so a small E/W punt there for me, whilst Buford was joint third in the market at 5/1, suggesting a place is within his grasp, but 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me, so I'll pass.

 

Oliver Stammers recovering after Chester fall

Apprentice jockey Oliver Stammers is recovering after his nasty fall at Chester.

Stammers was riding Sir Min for Ian Williams in the Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Nursery Handicap on Friday evening when his mount clipped heels on the first bend and came down.

Racing was delayed for 45 minutes while he was treated on course, and the air ambulance then transported him for further assessment at Aintree Hospital in Fazakerley.

In a positive update on Sunday, the young rider said in a tweet: “Overwhelmed by all the well wishes, I can’t thank you all enough!

“So frustrating to be out at such a crucial time in the season but hopefully won’t be too long.

“Special thanks to the team @ChesterRaces and Aintree Hospital!”

Oliver Stammers taken to hospital following Chester fall

Apprentice jockey Oliver Stammers was airlifted to Aintree Hospital in Fazakerley following a fall at Chester on Friday evening.

Stammers was riding Sir Min for Ian Williams in the Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Nursery Handicap when his mount clipped heels on the first bend and came down.

Racing was delayed for 45 minutes while Stammers was treated on course and the air ambulance was then requested, taking him for further assessment.

Chester’s clerk of the course Andrew Morris said: “Oliver was stabilised on course. He was conscious.

“He was taken by air ambulance to our nearest major trauma centre which is at Aintree. It was precautionary due to a head injury.”