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Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2020

Monday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Dwelt towards rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, switched right, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by two lengths) Unlike the boss, no dream return to action for me!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Standard to Slow Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As with yesterday (and probably for a while yet), we've no recent form to call upon, but we do know that this 4 yr old gelding has done well at this trip, track, class and field size in the past, although admittedly not all at once!

He has 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 runs in handicaps, a decent enough return that includes of relevance here...

  • two wins and a place from four at this ten furlong trip and beyond
  • the same record of two wins and a place in four efforts in fields of ten or more runners
  • a win and two places from four in this grade, but did also win his only Class 4 contest
  • a win (LTO) in his only previous visit to Kempton
  • and a win (also LTO) on his only attempt on a standard to slow surface

He is trained by James Fanshawe, who in recent history has done well here at Kempton, especially with handicappers deemed by the market to at least have a fighting chance. Numerically, that translates to 54 winners from 198 (27.3% SR) handicappers sent of at odds of 8/1 and shorter since 2013. Backing each and every one of them would have generated 52pts profit a 1pt level stakes at Betfair SP, a return of 26.3% above your initial 198pt outlay.

Under today's conditions, those 198 runners are...

  • 51 from 176 (29%) for 62.86pts (+35.7%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 50 from 174 (28.7%) for 54.92pts (+31.6%) with horses aged 3 or 4
  • 38 from 134 (28.4%) for 53.97pts (+40.3%) at trips of a mile and beyond
  • 18 from 62 (29%) for 24.55pts (+39.6%) during June, July & August
  • and 17 from 49 (34.7%) for 40.86pts (+83.4%) in fields of 11 or 12 runners...

...whilst horses aged three or four racing over a mile or further for a winner's purse of less than £8,000 have won 35 of 111 (31.5% SR) returning profits of 62.92pts at an ROI of some 56.7%. That's a nice little standalone angle, but could be refined by just considering...

  • those running from June to November, who are 29/85 (34.1%) for 69.3pts (+81.6%)
  • or those in fields of 11/12 runners, who are 10/24 (41.7%) for 38.64pts (+161%)

...and if you wanted to combine the pair, then those racing in fields of 11/12 runners from 1st June through to the 30th November are 9 from 16 (56.25% SR) for profits of 42.84pts (+267.7% ROI)...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!