Posts

One-A-Day Wonder – Update 20 (Final)

The last update for OADW and, perhaps fittingly, it was a well backed loser yesterday. Rokinhorsescience was the name of the animal, which was sent off the 5/6 favourite (2.0 Betfair SP), having been 2.14 in the morning.

The final reckoning for OADW is as follows then:

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£94.67

I'll have a summary of the system in the next day or two.

One-A-Day Wonder System – Update 19

No selection yesterday for OADW, which was a brief respite from the losing run.

Daily Total No Bet

Overall -£84.67

Today sees us focus on Rokinhorsescience in the 6.40 at Stratford, which is currently 2.14 to back.

One-A-Day Wonder System – Update 18

Yesterday's horse, Morgan's Choice, finished last of four, with a price drift from 2.7 in the morning to a Betfair SP of 3.95. That meant we didn't get paid if we backed it, and we didn't get paid if we traded it.

We would however have got paid if we'd laid it!

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£84.67

This is NOT a good backing system. And whilst it is difficult for me to suggest buying any system to use for another purpose, OADW might make a decent trading and / or laying service. Essentially, the typical situation has seen the price get shorter making for a trade. On the three occasions when the price got longer the horse always got beaten, suggesting we could lay the horse to get our stake back.

This is of course based on a very small sample so it's just a thought at this stage.

One-A-Day Wonder System – Update 17

I've just noticed in yesterday's post that I failed to mention the horse OADW had put forward.

It was Speed Dating in the 3.00 at Southwell and it finished second at 2.84 Betfair SP, having been readily available at 3.35 while I was writing my post. Another successful trading opportunity and another successful laying opportunity. Interesting.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£74.67

That is quite a long sequence of losers now and, given the typically measly odds of selections, it looks unlikely we'll be able to swing this one back into the black. One A Day Wonder however may have unwittingly found itself two different uses: trading and laying!

Matt

One-A-Day Wonder System – Update 16

Regal Kiss was the OADW horse on Saturday, and finished 3rd of 6 at a Betfair SP of 2.49. This compared to a morning price of slightly shorter (2.2 when I reported it, but it did drift to around the 2.5 mark).

So, no profit to be had, and possibly a small loss depending on when you traded.

If you'd simply followed the One A Day Wonder rules and backed the horse, you'd have suffered another reverse:

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£64.67

It might be quite a good laying system actually... and I say that with a modicum of seriousness...!

One-A-Day Wonder System – Update 15

Another beaten mule yesterday for OADW, but another successful trade as well. This time, there was plenty of cash at 2.66 in the morning to back and, despite Mycenean Prince being sent off the even money favourite, the Betfair SP was a fat 2.42.

Although I didn't check the pre-race market, I'm pretty sure you could have laid it at something like 2.2 before it drifted at post time. Anyway, my surmisal to one side, there was still a nice profit for traders on the play.

Overall totals, which are becoming increasingly meaningless (!), as follows:

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£54.67

Today, we're looking at Regal Kiss in the Ayr 6.10 at around 2.2 to bet on Betfair (might go a bit bigger as it is the same price with the bookies currently),

Matt

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 14

Well, it was a bit of a disaster all round yesterday for OADW. If you were a backer, you were beaten a neck. If you were a trader, the market went against you as an early 1.64 turned into a Betfair SP of 2.26, meaning you probably lost double your wedge!

Overall, the trading route still looks highly promising despite yesterday's setback. We've another week or so on this test, at the end of which I'll take a view on the long-term merit of this approach.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£44.67

Today, we're pitching up with Mycenean Prince, ridden by AP McCoy, and currently available to back on Betfair at 2.66.

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 13

I was out yesterday, so missed the action. And there was no selection on Tuesday. So, after a brief hiatus, OADW is back today with Sweetie Time in the 2.40 Haydock.

She's currently 1.64 to back, which is plenty short enough, but I still suspect she may go shorter. We shall see.

Overall position unchanged at:

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£34.67

One-A-Day-Wonder System – Day 12

Yesterday's OADW horse, Sarrsar, was beaten at odds of 4/5 (Betfair SP of 1.88, having been 2.12 in the morning). Although he only finished third, this was another good trading opportunity.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£34.67

There is no One A Day Wonder selection today.

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 11

Grand Zafeen was second for OADW on Friday, and I wasn't tracking over the weekend, so the current state of play overall is like this:

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£24.67

The problem with  betting short horses is it can start to go away from you, and then it's very difficult to catch back up again. One A Day Wonder needs to be careful as it might now take three winners on the spin to return to level. That's entirely possible of course.

On the trading side of things Grand Zafeen was the first loser, having been available at Betfair around 2.3 (later out to 2.7), and being returned 7/4. As I'm tracking the morning prices, this one goes down as a small loser.

Today, we're interested in Sarrsar in the 3.15 Ripon. Current odds on Betfair are 2.12 to back. Will it win? Will it go shorter to 'green up' on? These questions and more will be answered in the OADW update tomorrow!

Matt

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 10

Another non-runner yesterday as Holoko Bridge was pulled out.

Today, Grand Zafeen bids for OADW glory in the 6.05 at Bath. Current price is 2.3 on Betfair.

One-A-Day-Wonder System – Day 9

More trading fun with OADW.

Yesterday's pick, Minturno, was beaten at 7/4 (Betfair SP 2.92), having been available on Betfair yesterday morning at 3.5.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£14.67

As I've said, it's the trading angle that interests me about this. I don't think the overall position will go up much or down much, but identifying the daily selection and backing it with a view to laying later, either for a free bet or to 'green up' seems to have considerable merit.

So far, we'd have been able to trade profitably on five out of six selections, and break even on the other one. Seeing as not losing is the first rule of trading (be it forex, shares, or horses), this is pleasing enough, although of course it is still very early days.

Today, we're looking to back / trade Holoko Heights in the 2.55 Stratford. Current odds to back are 1.94 (a fair amount already traded at 2.2 and above).

One-A-Day Wonder – Day 8

Another trading opportunity yesterday, as Shopfrontspecial was backable at 2.14 in the morning. There was a 10% deduction for a non-runner, but that would have taken 2.14 down to 2.026. The horse had a Betfair SP of 1.78, having been as low as 1.68 in the pre-race  market. It won at an industry SP of 4/6.

So the story goes like this, to date:

Daily Total +£6.67

Overall -£4.67

Three winners from five selections and still a small loss tells its own story of the likely long-term profitability of the OADW system. However, there is a clear and emerging pattern in the shape of the market around the selections, which is underpinned by sound logic. I expect that pattern to be upheld, but time will tell on that score!

It's fair to say also that backing at Betfair SP would have put the overall tally at break even, after allowing for commissions.

Minturn (5.30 Redcar) is the selection today, currently at 3.5 to back on Betfair.

One-A-Day Wonder – Day 7

Another winner for OADW yesterday, with Riverscape doing the business at 8/13. Looking at the Betfair market was interesting again, as the 1.93 (just over 10/11) looked very big come the off. Betfair SP was 1.7 (just less than 8/11), so it was another good trading opportunity.

That's two winners from four selections (plus a non-runner and no bet on Sunday) which leaves the overall backing position thus:

Daily Total +£6.16

Overall -£11.34

On the trading front however, we could have made a profit on three of the four horses and broken even on the other one. This angle continues to have accidental merit in a system that is otherwise probably doomed to bob up and down around the break even point (in itself not a terrible thing, in fairness!)

Today's selection is Shopfrontspecial in the 9.10 Perth (currently 2.14 to back on Betfair).

Matt

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 6

Saturday's selection, Margot Did, finished second at 2/1, meaning that's now one winner and three losers so far.

On the trading front, Margot Did was available to back at 3.2 on Betfair in the morning, and returned 2/1 (Betfair SP 3.15), so no win or loss there either.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£17.50

Today's pick is Riverscape in the 6.25 Uttoxeter, currently available to back at 1.93 on Betfair.