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One-A-Day-Wonder System – Day 12

Yesterday's OADW horse, Sarrsar, was beaten at odds of 4/5 (Betfair SP of 1.88, having been 2.12 in the morning). Although he only finished third, this was another good trading opportunity.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£34.67

There is no One A Day Wonder selection today.

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 11

Grand Zafeen was second for OADW on Friday, and I wasn't tracking over the weekend, so the current state of play overall is like this:

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£24.67

The problem with  betting short horses is it can start to go away from you, and then it's very difficult to catch back up again. One A Day Wonder needs to be careful as it might now take three winners on the spin to return to level. That's entirely possible of course.

On the trading side of things Grand Zafeen was the first loser, having been available at Betfair around 2.3 (later out to 2.7), and being returned 7/4. As I'm tracking the morning prices, this one goes down as a small loser.

Today, we're interested in Sarrsar in the 3.15 Ripon. Current odds on Betfair are 2.12 to back. Will it win? Will it go shorter to 'green up' on? These questions and more will be answered in the OADW update tomorrow!

Matt

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 10

Another non-runner yesterday as Holoko Bridge was pulled out.

Today, Grand Zafeen bids for OADW glory in the 6.05 at Bath. Current price is 2.3 on Betfair.

One-A-Day-Wonder System – Day 9

More trading fun with OADW.

Yesterday's pick, Minturno, was beaten at 7/4 (Betfair SP 2.92), having been available on Betfair yesterday morning at 3.5.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£14.67

As I've said, it's the trading angle that interests me about this. I don't think the overall position will go up much or down much, but identifying the daily selection and backing it with a view to laying later, either for a free bet or to 'green up' seems to have considerable merit.

So far, we'd have been able to trade profitably on five out of six selections, and break even on the other one. Seeing as not losing is the first rule of trading (be it forex, shares, or horses), this is pleasing enough, although of course it is still very early days.

Today, we're looking to back / trade Holoko Heights in the 2.55 Stratford. Current odds to back are 1.94 (a fair amount already traded at 2.2 and above).

One-A-Day Wonder – Day 8

Another trading opportunity yesterday, as Shopfrontspecial was backable at 2.14 in the morning. There was a 10% deduction for a non-runner, but that would have taken 2.14 down to 2.026. The horse had a Betfair SP of 1.78, having been as low as 1.68 in the pre-race  market. It won at an industry SP of 4/6.

So the story goes like this, to date:

Daily Total +£6.67

Overall -£4.67

Three winners from five selections and still a small loss tells its own story of the likely long-term profitability of the OADW system. However, there is a clear and emerging pattern in the shape of the market around the selections, which is underpinned by sound logic. I expect that pattern to be upheld, but time will tell on that score!

It's fair to say also that backing at Betfair SP would have put the overall tally at break even, after allowing for commissions.

Minturn (5.30 Redcar) is the selection today, currently at 3.5 to back on Betfair.

One-A-Day Wonder – Day 7

Another winner for OADW yesterday, with Riverscape doing the business at 8/13. Looking at the Betfair market was interesting again, as the 1.93 (just over 10/11) looked very big come the off. Betfair SP was 1.7 (just less than 8/11), so it was another good trading opportunity.

That's two winners from four selections (plus a non-runner and no bet on Sunday) which leaves the overall backing position thus:

Daily Total +£6.16

Overall -£11.34

On the trading front however, we could have made a profit on three of the four horses and broken even on the other one. This angle continues to have accidental merit in a system that is otherwise probably doomed to bob up and down around the break even point (in itself not a terrible thing, in fairness!)

Today's selection is Shopfrontspecial in the 9.10 Perth (currently 2.14 to back on Betfair).

Matt

One-A-Day Wonder System – Day 6

Saturday's selection, Margot Did, finished second at 2/1, meaning that's now one winner and three losers so far.

On the trading front, Margot Did was available to back at 3.2 on Betfair in the morning, and returned 2/1 (Betfair SP 3.15), so no win or loss there either.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£17.50

Today's pick is Riverscape in the 6.25 Uttoxeter, currently available to back at 1.93 on Betfair.

One-A Day Wonder – Day 5

A non-runner yesterday meant the overall position didn't change and nor could I check the trading theory I have.

Les Fazzani was the horse in question and she had a 35% takeout on Betfair, implying odds around 2/1. These were the same odds she was available to back at earlier in the day (she drifted after I noted 7/4 in my post yesterday). Crucially then, at least we could have traded out for no loss had she run and we chosen to.

A bit tenuous granted, so I'll omit that from my overall 'can we trade OADW' considerations.

Onto today, and Margot Did (2.40 Ascot) is the pick. 2/1 is available with bookies, and she's 3.2 on Betfair for traders.

We'll see.

Overall position obviously unchanged:

Daily Total +£12.50

Overall -£7.50

One A Day-Wonder – Day 4

OADW hit its first win today, when Bowdler's Magic obliged at odds of 5/4.

What was perhaps more noteworthy is that Bowdler's was available at 2/1 in the morning and was the third straight selection to contract notably in the market.

As I suggested yesterday, the system may be better used by traders than backers as it is simple enough to identify the horse that will see further support.

Of course, it remains extremely early days to make such a judgment, but I'll continue to track both the early price and the returned SP, as well as - obviously - the results.

Daily Total +£12.50

Overall -£7.50

Today's selection is: Les Fazzani in the 7.30 York (available to back at 7/4 with Paddy Power currently)

One-A-Day-Wonder – Day 3

The second One A Day Wonder horse was beaten comfortably enough, Alfadora finishing 5th of 10, at odds of 11/8.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£20

Today’s selection is Bowdler's Music in the 2.45 Sandown (currently available at 15/8).

One point of interest is that both selections so far have been available as solid trading horses:

Tuscan Gold went from 6/4 into 6/5

Alfadora went from 2/1 into 11/8

It will be interesting to track the SP of Bowdler's today, and subsequent horses...

Matt

One A Day Wonder System – Day 2

The first One A Day Wonder pick ran close but no cigar, finishing second (albeit beaten a fair way by the winner), at odds of 6/5.

Daily Total -£10

Overall -£10

Today's selection is Alfadora in the 3.20 Worcester (currently available at 2/1).

Matt

One A Day Wonder System Review

I received an email this morning, dear reader, promoting a system called One A Day Wonder (OADW). It's a backing system which is easy to follow, but I'm getting ahead of myself.

First, let me tell you about the buying process, which can only be described as 'hyper-aggressive'. Actually, it could be described as a lot of other things too: annoying, stupid, greedy, confusing, unnecessary, etc.

OADW is sold with two 'upsell' opportunities, i.e. other things you are offered after you've bought the system. Although these are pretty much 'de rigeur' for a lot of people, this one really stood out.

Why?

Because the first upsell - which offered me something called 'Each Way Winners', another system - had a whole SIX different 'wait, are you sure you don't want it?' screens, each with a lower price than the last. So, having been first offered it for £27.95, I was finally offered it for £3.95!

Next, I could take lifetime email selections sent to me for just £23.95. No thanks, I said. Several more (indeed, another five) no thanks later (the last at £3.95), I was finally given the chance to download the manual.

Except I wasn't. I was asked to enter my name and email to sign up for a list which would then send me to the download page... Checked my email and finally I received a link to the download page.

When I got to that page, lo and behold if the upsold system wasn't there too! So I got OADW and Each Way Winners for my investment (£29.95 by the way).

I also got two other bonus systems, making four in total. But how are they?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Well, the focus of course should be on OADW, as that is the system under review in the title of this post. It's a simple system, and will take no more than five minutes a day to operate. But it has some issues.

Firstly, it uses a part of the racingpost.com website that will soon become obsolete. That said, you can get that info from other places so all is not lost. (I suspect that, despite me receiving the promotional email recently, the system has been around for a while).

It's difficult to project the success rate for such a system, but I suspect that it's quite high. However, strike rate needs to be considered in the context of odds available, and typically selections (of which there will be, unsurprisingly, no more than one a day) are close to the even money mark, perhaps a shade of odds on.

That said, today's pick is 11/8 shot Tuscan Gold (8.20 Kempton).

The point though is this: for a system like this to be successful, it would have to be finding the winner in more than half of all races. Not impossible but very difficult.

And of course, betting at those odds would require a reasonably sizeable unit stake to make it worthwhile financially. All those caveats aside, it might be a fun system for small stakes and regular interest.

The upsell system, Each Way Winners, is a bit trickier to use but still not that hard. It takes a bit longer to find the picks - about 15 minutes for four meetings today - and, as the name suggests, picks are backed each way. I have reservations about this system, especially as the example used in the manual to illustrate the system identified a horse that finished eight of nine!

It has a bunch of picks today, as follows:

Bangor 6.40 Sunday City
Ffos Las 3.30 Any Given Moment
Ffos Las 4.00 Swift Chap
Ffos Las 4.30 Gwilym
Kempton 9.20 Fly By Nelly
Yarmouth 2.45 Clerical
Yarmouth 4.15 This One's For Eddy

The two bonus systems are moderate to awful. The first, Alpha Fave, backs certain favourites under certain conditions and can only be described as an 'interest only fun system' (in other words, I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole).

The other bonus system doesn't even merit consideration. It's rubbish.

So, overall, what do I think of One A Day Wonder? It has the usual hyperbolic sales bluster. It has the most aggressive post-purchase upsell sequence I've seen anywhere, in any market (i.e. not just horse racing), ever. And it requires opt in to get the system, which sets you up for all sorts of guff into your inbox until you work out how to unsubscribe (I downloaded the kit, then unsubscribed pronto).

One A Day Wonder is a fun little system that will find plenty of winners. The trade off is that those winners will rarely be at 'working man's odds'. It is easy to use and takes very little time.

In summary, if you can handle the labyrinthine sales sequence, and if you can bear opting in to get to the download page, and if you like fun systems where you neither win nor lose very much over time, and if you are OK with backing short priced horses then you might enjoy One A Day Wonder.

Although that sounds like a lot of 'ifs' (and IS a lot of 'ifs'!), I can't say it's terrible. Perhaps I'll track it for a couple of weeks and report back on my findings. In fact, I will track it for a while. 🙂

I can't recommend this as a portfolio system by any means, but it might give a little fun. I've seen worse for sure (though not in the sales sequence!)

Matt