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Stat of the Day, 10th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Slowly into stride, held up, headway and switched right over 2f out, soon edged left, kept on inside final furlong, no impression on winner) - allowed winner too much of a soft lead IMO.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

More on this after the school run...

So, we have a 4 yr old who is joint top on our own ratings, who won last time out (8 days ago) and comes from a yard with a good recent record at this venue.

In fact, this one has been in consistently good form for some time, he won on the last day of February and then returned to the track post-lockdown in early June and has finished 2242261 since, culminating in a win over 5.5 furlongs at Bath last week in another Class 6 handicap under today's jockey and off the same mark as today.

The big field shouldn't bother him, as 13 ran in that Bath contest, whilst I'm sure an extra 100 or so yards will be fine, based on the report from LTO, which reads...midfield, stumbled slightly 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length.

The racecard screenshot above also points to trainer Tony Carroll's 12-month record here at Chepstow, so I won't repeat those numbers, but I would suggest focusing on those handicappers sent off at odds of 10/3 to 10/1, as since the start of 2017, they are...

and this includes of relevance today...

  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 34.73pts (+82.7%) on the Flat
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 42.73pts (+125.7%) off marks of 54 to 74
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 43.23pts (+154.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 6/20 (30%) for 16.38pts (+81.9%) at Class 6
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 24.8pts (+112.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.05pts (+42.4%) on Good ground
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.33pts (+55.6%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.38pts (+121.6%) over this 6f course and distance

Based on the above, it makes perfect sense to me to look for Flat handicappers officially rated 54 to 74 who  had run in the previous 25 days and they are...

...meaning we've halved the original sample size, but only lost one of the winners. The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that these filters also apply to Our Man in Havana who runs in the first division of this handicap and is a nice price for an E/W bet (9/1 & 4 places paid) if that took your fancy.

As well as highlighting another possible bet, that 9 from 22 stat also includes the following (most of which also apply to the second horse)...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 36.8pts (+368%) in 3yo+ hcps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 20.88pts (+208.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.33pts (+159.3%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 18.38pts (+306.3%) over this 6f C&D

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!