Tag Archive for: pace

Racing Insights, Monday 15/07/23

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 7.25 Killarney
  • 8.10 Wolverhampton
  • 8.20 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a quick look at the 8.20 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

FORM : Fast Steps, Expert Witness and Morcar all won their last races and God of Fire comes here on a hat-trick. pink Lily has won two of her last three, whilst only Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are winless in at least seven races, having been beaten in their previous ten, seven and eight outings respectively.

CLASS : All four LTO winners are up one class here, as is the fast-finishing Tribal Wisdom who was a half-length runner-up to Morcar last time around. Pink Lily also steps up in class after failing to complete a hat-trick when only fourth of five at Newmarket. Spirit of the Bay should find this a little easier today, as she drops down a class after finishing 6th of 7 over 1m2f here at Windsor, beaten by more than eight lengths a fortnight ago.

LAST RACE : All thirteen runners have had at least one run in the last five (God of Fire) to thirty-one (New Heights) days, so all should be race-tuned.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORDS : Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if any...

Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if there is one...

New Heights and Morcar should also like the underfoot conditions, but Silver Gunn is 0 from 5 on good to firm, the same record that both New Heights and Morcar have at Class 4, whilst the trip seems to have been an issue for Silver Gunn, Spirit of the Bay and Tribal Wisdom, but at least Spirit of the Bay is now rated 6lbs lower than her last win with Fast Steps, God of Fire, Expert Witness and Pink Lily all at 5/6 lbs higher than their last wins.

From a place perspective...

Fast Steps still looks the one to beat but from the going/class/course/distance categories Expert Witness also has two blocks of green and is untried at class/track and at this stage, the ones I'm still interested in are...

Previous similar races haven't shown much in the way of a draw bias, but that's not entirely unexpected over a trip of this distance with both left and right handed turns...

...but this is where our feature of the day, the pace data, comes into its own. Those races above were quite fairly shared out through the various sectors of the stalls, but they were dominated by front-runners...

...who won 24% of the races by providing just 10.2% of the runners and also accounted for over 18.5% of the placers, so whilst the draw might not make or break a runner's chances here at Windsor, there's certainly an advantage in being up with the pace and if we consider how these horses have approached their last few races...

...that's got be a positive for the likes of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily.

Summary

Fast Steps was the standout from Instant Expert and is a former course and distance winner and would probably be my pick, but for the way he has been ridden in recent races. He's going to need to get involved a little sooner here if he's to win and with that not certain to happen, I'll keep him as a placer rather than a winner.

I'm going to then take the first two from the pace list of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily, as they bring the best recent form to the table, God of Fire heads the pace charts and Expert Witness was the other standout from Instant Expert.

All of which gives me God of Fire, Expert Witness and Fast Steps as my three against the field. Expert Witness' LTO win came over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago and she beat God Of Fire by a length and three quarters off equal weights. God of Fire is two from two since then and will now carry 3lbs more than Expert Witness, so I'm going to side with Expert Witness here.

We'd no odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday (early dart for the football!), so here are the best 'guesstimates' from Oddschecker, Racing Post and Timeform respectively...

...which suggest there might be a bit of value in the price for Expert Witness here.



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Racing Insights, Monday 01/07/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.15 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Pontefract
  • 7.15 Windsor
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a look at the 7.15 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm, ground...

...where hat-trick seeking  and fast-finishing Haymaker is the sole LTO winner, although Aramis Grey and Amazonian Dream finished second and third respectively on their last outings. Yet despite being a regular placer (15 top 3 finishes from her last 19 races), Aramis Grey is the only runner in this field without a win in starts, having suffered eleven defeats on the bounce and her cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a class here, as does Under The Twilight, whilst 'form horse' Haymaker is up two classes.

Rohaan and Wallop both last raced eight weeks ago and the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 10-23 days, so we should have no fitness issues from a field where all eight have won at least once over today's trip and all bar the afore-mentioned Rohaan and Wallop have won over course and distance, Mind you, neither has been to Windsor before, as demonstrated by Instant Expert...

...where my main concerns are the lack of Class 2 wins aside from Rohaan, of course and Aramis Grey's poor win record at this trip plus the fact she's some 15lbs higher than her last win. That, I suppose, is the danger of running well, but not quite well enough to win.

With the lack of Class 2 wins above, it might well be worth looking at Class 3 form...

...where Katey Kontent has been the standout with all of Under The Twilight's wins coming at Class 4. With the lack of Class 2 form above, I've included the Class 3 data in the place stats from above...

...and here you can see some of Aramis Grey's placed finishes that I mentioned earlier as she, along with Under The Twilight, Haymaker, Katey Kontent and Shagraan seem the ones to focus upon.

There shouldn't be too much of an advantage for any of these runners from the draw, although Amazonian Dream should be aware that there's a fair drop off beyond stall 7...

...and whilst those draw stats aren't a huge help to us, our feature of the day is PACE and we're at Windsor for a straight 6f on quick ground, where pace is key. We didn't get much help from the draw in those 110+ races, but just look at how they were won...

...which speaks for itself, I think. So, we want to be on a front-runner and preferably not from stall 8, so if we look at how the field has approached its last few outings...

...we can make a fairly reasoned assumption that Shagraan might well attempt to win this from the front from stall 2 with the in-form Haymaker the one most likely to give chase.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but from the pace chart (which is key at Windsor), Shagraan and Haymaker could be a fair way clear of Aramis Grey, Katey Kontent and Under The Twilight (I'd already ruled Wallop, Amazonian Dream and Rohaan out of my considerations) and I'm certainly wanting these front-runners in my final three.

As for the third placer, I actually think that Katey Kontent might well be the best horse in the race, but won't be suited by the pace of this one but should still make the frame. As for the winner, I prefer Shagraan over Haymaker, as the former will be out in front first and the latter is up two classes, but should still place.

Sadly, though, the bookies are also on to this pace bias at Windsor and as of 4.45pm Sunday, they went...

Based on the above, perennial placer Aramis Grey might not be a bad E/W shout if any of my preferred trio fail to fire.



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Racing Insights, Monday 17/06/24

 

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  3.18 Chepstow
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Kilbeggan
  • 7.45 Kilbeggan

The two UK races above are Class 4/5 affairs, but with the daily feature in mind, there are a couple of Class 3 sprints on the evening card at Windsor. One has sixteen runners, so I'll swerve that in favour of the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sole filly Queen’s Guard is the only LTO winner and has two wins and two places from her last four outings. Aramram won two races ago and fast finisher Salvuccio won five starts back, as did Beyond Borders when completing a hat-trick. Jimmy Speaking won two of his last three, Sky Warrior won four races ago and despite three losses on the bounce, The Good Biscuit is still two from five, so this could be a useful contest.

Salvuccio is the only one of the seven who raced at Class 3 last time and he now wears first time blinkers. Aramram makes a handicap debut and is the only class dropper in the field with the other five runners all stepping up from Class 4. All bar Salvuccio have won over this trip, but we’ve no former course winners amongst a group that have all raced in the last 17 days and according to Instant Expert...

...mainly have a good win record over 6f. The Good Biscuit will like the ground here, having won two from three, whilst from a place perspective...

...it's probably time to write Salvuccio off from my considerations. Unusually over a straight 6f, there does seem to be abit of a draw bias in these smaller fields with stalls 1 to 3 having the best win records and stalls 1 to 5 faring best for the places, which might not bode well for Jimmy Speaking or Aramram...

If we then return to our feature of the day, pace, we see that those 90-odd races above have been dominated by front runners...

...making the success of low drawn leaders in the following pace/draw heat map of little surprise...

We can now check how these runners have approached their most recent races...

...data that opens the door for the two highest drawn runners, Jimmy Speaking and Aramram.

Summary

There's no standout runner here in what looks a tight contest. Queen's Guard is one of the form horses, but she seems unsuited by her pace profile and is up 7lbs for her LTO win, so I think that Jimmy Speaking might be a safer option at 13/2 with Hills (8.15pm Sunday), he's going to be up with the pace and has won two of his last three. Hopefully he'll edge the filly out and land the forecast too.



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Racing Insights, Monday 10/06/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  4.40 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 5.48 Roscommon
  • 6.18 Roscommon

Neither of the UK 'free' races really appeal to me, so I'm going just look at the day's highest-rated race, the 7.40 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Rocking Ends is our sole LTO winner, although Isle of Lismore won his penultimate race and was a runner-up last time, meaning that just two of the field were in the frame on their most recent outing. That said, all bar Mountain Peak have won at least once in the last seven, but he is winless in eleven stretching back almost two years.

His bid to snap his cold streak won't be helped by him stepping up a class, as do Isle of Lismore and Dusky Lord, whilst LTO winner Rocking Ends is up two levels. Mountain Peak last raced seven weeks ago, but all his rivals have ran at least once in the last four weeks and every one of the ten runners here have won over today's trip with Isle of Lismore, Rocking Ends and Antiphon all scoring over course and distance...

In fairnes, there's not a great deal of positivity from the win stats on Instant Expert today, but Good Earth does like the good to firm ground. From a negative perspective, it's not looking good for Thunder Moor, Woolhampton and Dusky Lord with a full line of red, whilst Squealer is 9lbs higher than his last win, so I think we'll need to check the place stats...

...which does paint a better picture, but it has to be the end of the road for Squealer (weight), Thunder Moor and Dusky Lord. Woolhampton's place stats are decent, so she earns a reprieve for now, whilst Antiphon clearly loves it here at Windsor finishing 114232212 since his first visit here on 2nd May 2022.

As you'd expect, there's no huge draw bias over a straight 5f on quick ground...

.but when it comes to our feature of the day, Pace, it's a different story with horses faring much better from both a win and a place perspective, the further forward they race...

...which makes sense really doesn't it? Hold-up horses don't have time to catch up over a fast five. Based on the field's most recent efforts, this pace bias would seem to suit Windsor-lover Antiphon better than Woolhampton...

If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

...the ideal combo is the low drawn leader and Isle of Lismore scoring 3.00 for pace above and has the no.1 stall, then that could be good news.

Summary

Isle of Lismore is in good form and has the ideal pace/draw combo to succeed here. He won a similar race over course and distance this time last year and at a generally available (as of 5.40pm Sunday) 5/1, he'd be the one for me.

Rocking Ends is only up 2lbs for a good win LTO, but the dual step up in class might be his undoing here, whilst course specialist Antiphon looks a little high in the weights. Both have great chances of making the frame but at respective odds of 4/1 and 10/3, there's nothing in them from an E/W perspective.

If I did want a longer-priced horse to outrun their odds, then the 17/2 Navello might be the one, but I wouldn't be throwing too much of your hard-earned at it!



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Racing Insights, Monday 03/06/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.20 Listowel
  • 2.30 Brighton
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 4.50 Listowel
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I think I'll head to the South Coast for the 2.30 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Apprentice Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground...

Top-weight (carrying 5lbs more than the others) is the fast-finisher Fai Fai and he's our only LTO winner in a field that elsewhere Broxi's win five starts ago is the only success any of these have had in their last seven outings, although My Bonnie Lassie made the frame on her last start (over course and distance, too) and has done so twice in her last four efforts.

All nine raced at this level last time around which was inside the last eight weeks for all bar Gilt Edge, who now returns from a six-month break. Muy Muy Guapo has been far from 'very very handsome' of late, having been unplaced in each of his last seven and it is hoped that first-time cheekpieces help today.

This isn't a handicap, so all bar the 5lb-penalised Fai Fai will carry 9st 9lbs here and with four of them rated at 50 and one at 49, this could be a tight contest, despite the obvious lack of quality. Of the five separated by just 1lb in the ratings, Voltaic has a 3lb claimer on board, whilst the jockeys of Kondratiev Wave and Broxi are both able to take 5lbs off, which may well have a bearing here.

All nine have raced over this trip (2 to 35 times overall) with only Broxi (7 from 35) and He's Our Star (3 from 15) managing to win with the other seven failing to score in any of 66 attempts and it's the same two horses who have won here at Brighton before as Broxi is 2 from 2 here and He's Our Star has won 3 of 16 with the others notching up 21 defeats, whilst over course and distance, Broxi is 2 from 2 and He's Our Man 2 from 3. Other relevant stats come courtesy of Instant Expert, of course...

...where Broxi is the immediate eye-catcher based on wins over the last two years, with both Fai Fai and Voltaic having commendable place records, but you probably didn't need me to spell that out. When it comes to place stats, I'm never too keen about horses 'in the red' after 5 runs or more, so by that standard My Bonnie Lassie and He's Our Star fail on class/course data, whilst Gilt Edge also fails on class and I'd be more than happy to rule them out right now, leaving me with the following in draw order...

I've got them in draw order, because I want to check with our draw analyser to see if any of these be helped or hindered by their stall position based on data gleaned from past similar races here at Brighton...

...where to be honest, I'd say that the bias wasn't that great at all, but if there is an advantage to be had it's probably more relevant for the placings rather than the wins and that those drawn lowest have the better chances. It's a different story from a pace perspective, though, where the onus is to get out quickly with our pace analyser showing that leaders/prominent runners won 51.2% (64) of those 125 races above, despite only accounting for 41.6% (452) of the 1085 runners involved...

...with a similar (but not quite as stark) difference with the places, where they took 46.9% (175) of the 373 places. When we then look back at how this field has approached their most recent races...

...I guess that Broxi might well be afforded a soft early lead and that he'll attempt to make all here.

Summary

Based on the above, it has to be Broxi for me.

Aside from Fai Fai, he brings the best form to the table and is second best off at the weights after allowances, just 1lb inferior to Kondratiev Wave. He has the best win stats on Instant Expert, backed up by good place data. He has been drawn in stall one, so he has the rail to guide him and only one direction to look out for danger, but based on the pace stats, he might not see another runner after the start and if so, it'll probably be late on.

LTO-winner Fai Fai is only two stalls away and might well get a tow into the race, which would help but he and Voltaic are the two best suited to making the frame here today anyway and it is these two that I expect to pose the biggest threat to Broxi here. If pushed to split the placers, I think I like Voltaic slightly more as he carries 8lbs less than Fai Fai, but Fai Fai is the stronger finisher : it might be tight!

As of 4.20pm on Sunday, only Bet365 had shown any odds and they went...

I can understand why Kondratiev Wave might be popular, but 3/1 seems mighty short for a horse on a twenty-one race losing streak and 7/2 about Broxi looks better value.



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Racing Insights, Monday 27/05/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.15 Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.05 Cartmel
  • 4.35 Redcar
  • 5.55 Leicester

The highest-rated of those races above, the 4.35 Redcar, also has a good pace spread, so we're going to focus on this 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground, that will be heavy in places...

Maghlaak has made the frame in all six career starts, winning on three occasions and is the only LTO winner in this field. Alpha Crucis was third of eight at Goodwood under similar conditions to today, but none of the others even made the frame on their last outings. All bar Machete have won at least one of their last six races, though, with the top-weight French raider on a losing run of seven.

Arthur's Realm and Bystander both step up a class here and it's a day/race full of 'firsts' as it's the first...

  • race for David O'Meara, first in the UK and first handicap race anywhere for Machete
  • time in cheekpieces for Bill Silvers
  • fitting of a tongue-tie for To Catch a Thief
  • wearing of a visor by Stressfree

All those who ran in the UK last time out raced either 10 or 23 days ago, but Machete's last run in France for Fabrice Chappet was some eight months ago and it's not inconceivable that he might need the run. He's also one of four (along with Bill Silvers, Arthur's Realm & Alpha Crucis) yet to win at today's trip, whilst the field has no previous Redcar wins. That said only Bystander and Stressfree have raced here once each!

Half of the field have decent place form on soft ground, but unusually for French imports, that's not the case for Machete and seeing as he hasn't raced for eight months, has lost his last seven since a win fourteen months ago, has no win at the trip and doesn't appear to 'get' soft ground, I'm crossing his name off here.

Also based on place form, I'm doubtful about To Catch A Thief, Bill Silvers and especially Lord Protector, so that leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10, so I should still be covered in the event of any draw bias! The in-form Maghlaak is also the main eyecatcher from Instant Expert above, but Qitaal's numbers are good as are those of bottom-weight Alpha Crucis.

I referred to a potential draw bias above, so I've checked past similar races and they say...

...and based on that data, I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias overall. The mid drawn 4 wins from 78 doesn't make a lot of sense when either side you have 10 wins and 9 wins, but I should point out that stall 1 alone has 6 wins and 2 further places from 23 runs, so that skews things a little and might be good news for Qitaal. The fact that there's not a great deal of difference in the place stats helps to bring me to the little/no bias conclusion, but I suspect that our feature of the day, PACE, will be of more help.

Here's how those 23 races above have been won...

...with prominent/leading runners clearly coming out on top, which based on this field's most recent efforts looks like even more good news for Qitaal...

Summary

The in-form Maghlaak and pace-setting Qitaal look like the most likely ones here and they were only a neck apart last time out. Qitaal is a pound better off here, but Maghlaak was running for the first time in almost a year, so both should technically go better here, which might result in another narrow defeat for Qitaal. I'm not sure how they'll finish, of course, but I suspect it will be tight again and Qitaal offers more value at 6/1* than Maghlaak at 7/2* , I suppose.

As for the final place, Bystander (9/2*) has to be considered from his pace profile, but I think Alpha Crucis might be the one, despite often being slow away. He was actually third behind Maghlaak and Qitaal 23 days ago, just 1.25 lengths off the pace and whilst Qitaal is a pound better off with Maghlaak here, Alpha Crucis is 2lbs better off with Qitaal, which could be interesting and at 13/2*, he's borderline E/W territory for me.

*odds taken from Bet365 & Hills at 5.00pm Sunday



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Racing Insights, Monday 20/05/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 5.06 Windsor
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 6.50 Roscommon
  • 7.40 Windsor

...so we're off to Windsor. I've opted to look at the first of the list, that 5.06 race, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio all come here off the back of LTO wins inside the last five weeks and Freds Mate won three starts ago. I Love Paris, Rakki and Malinka are yet to get off the mark after 5, 4 and 3 starts respectively.

I Love Paris and Rakki both drop in class here and that might help them here and Freds Mate has been gelded since his last run. That run was 136 days ago, so he might well need the run, but at 184 days off, Alacrity's fitness will be tested hee ,as the others have all raced in the last 37 days.

We don't have much relevant form to go off, but Caprelo won over this trip at Kempton last time out and Lucentio's win here a fortnight ago was over course and distance. Sadly this field have very little experience at this level and this is reflected in a lack of data within Instant Expert..

 

...so I'll move straight on to the draw stats, which suggest that runners in stalls 1 and 2 could be disadvantaged...

...whilst those races above have been won as follows...

...and with so many different viable options available, it could be an open contest, where I suspect Alacrity will be the early pacesetter, if his recent runs are anything to go by...

On that 'evidence', Malinka would be the back marker but be aware of horses changing how they run in the early stages of their careers.

If we now put what we know about the field into that pace-draw heatmap...

Summary

Pretty short and hopefully sweet today and I can't help but think that the 3 LTO winners, Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio will provide our first three home here, although Rakki looks good on the pace/draw heatmap.

Alacrity might need a run, Caprelo's form has all been on the A/W while Lucentio's LTO win was on soft ground, so none of the three are perfect.

Should Alacrity be race-fit, then he'd be my tentative pick at 5/1*, offering more apparent value than the 5/2* and 11/4* being offered about Caprelo and Lucentio with the latter being my preference.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 5pm Sunday



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Racing Insights, Monday 13/05/24

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.47 Catterick
  • 4.55 Roscommon
  • 5.35 Windsor
  • 5.55 Roscommon
  • 6.40 Killarney

Regular readers will know that I rarely get involved with Irish racing, which takes away three of the five races above for me, but each to their own of course! And if I'm honest, I'm not really too interested in the two UK races above either, so I'm just going to look at the highest-rated race in the UK, the 6.35 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

My initial thoughts before diving in were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad, but let's see what the data tells us...

Leap Abroad won last time out, sixteen days ago and Laoisman completed a hat-trick five weeks ago, as he returned from 195 days off the track, so he has come back fresh. We've no other LTO winners, but both Katey Kontent and Coup de Force were runners-up on their last runs, but Katey Knotent is actually the only one in this field without at least one win in their last six outings, having been beaten in all seven starts (albeit narrowly in her last two) since winning her first two starts back in May 2022.

Her cause might not be helped by a 1lb and 1 class rise here today, but she's not alone in stepping up as Laosman, Leap Abroad and Coup de Force all make the same move from Class 4, whilst bottom-weight Lady Dreamer is up two classes here. Moving down in class are top-weight Executive Decision and Dusky Lord, who drop from Class 2 action, but both might be in need of a run after breaks of 203 and 220 days respectively; this might also apply to Katey Kontent (221 days) and Coup de Force (202 days).

Aside from the four runners above who haven't raced since last October, the other half-dozen have all had at least one run since the start of April. The trip should be fine for most of these, as only Rhythm n Hooves and Katey Kontent have yet to win at this distance and both Indian Creak and Lady Dreamer have achieved the feat here at Windsor in August '23 and July '23 respectively. Katey Kontent's form over 6f is improving and reads 432, but she has won over 5f here at Windsor, back in May 2022 on what was just her second outing...

Instant Expert probably helps us put red marks against runners rather than green ticks today, as Indian Creak and to lesser extent, Coup de Force, look unsuited by the going, whilst Indian Creak's win record at Class 3 is lamentable with his 6 from 42 at the trip hardly setting the world alight. Lady Dreamer has struggled to win at this trip, too, with just one win from eight. That said, she has made the frame in four of her seven defeats...

Indian Creak still looks weak, though and whilst I'm unsure of many of these from a win perspective, you could make a case for most of them to make the frame over a track and trip that has rewarded low-drawn runners most in terms of wins, but has offered more opportunities to make the frame from those drawn highest...

...but the big thing here at Windsor is pace, which fits in nicely with today's free feature. If truth be told, the draw bias above isn't massive but if we look at how those 110+ races above were won...

...it's pretty clear what the optimum tactics would be and this means we're looking for the horses with high pace scores. For those unsure how this works (it's in the user guide better than I'll explain!) we look at every race in the UK and award a score of 4 to a horse that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for those who raced in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up horse. It's not an exact timed science, but it really does help us to see who might well set the pace.

Our field's last four runs look like this...

...with Leap Around the likely front-runner ahead of Lady Dreamer, Indian Creak and Laoisman, whilst both Kiwano and Katey Kontent arrive here on the back of three hold-up runs and if that's repeated here, they'll find it hard to win, I'd have thought.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad. After everything I've written/read, I'm still pretty keen on two of them, but I can't warm to Katey Kontent right now. She's on a losing run, but on a rising mark and up in class. She's likely to need a run after a lay-off and shouldn't be suited here from a pace perspective.

If I follow my daily processes as above, she's a definite no (watch her now romp home at 6/1!) but I'm sticking with Laoisman and Leap Abroad and I've got them in that order too.

For a third horse to make the frame, I want to be on a horse with a recent run, so not Coup de Force, Executive Decision nor Dusky Lord. Of the four remaining options, I'm inclined to side with Lady Dreamer, who has an excellent place record under today's conditions. She won her last start of 2023 and clearly needed a run last time out, she's a course and distance winner, she gets weight all round and runs off a mark lower than her last win.

No odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday afternoon, but an average of the tissues provided by Oddschecker, Timeform & Racing Post has Laoisman at 10/3, Leap Around at 4.11/1 (37/9 anyone?) and Lady Dreamer at 14.67 (44/3) respectively, so there might well be an E/W bet in the offing.



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Racing Insights, Monday 06/05/2024

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 2.35 Windsor
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 4.45 Curragh

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in either of the two UK races there, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 4.05 Kempton, which is the highest-rated UK race that I'd consider covering! It's an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over a right-handed three miles on good ground...

Neon Moon won last time out, as did top-weight Quick Draw who has four wins and a place from his last seven outings. Karl Philippe and Unanswered Prayers were both placed third on their latest runs, but both are winless in seven (or more) races, as is Killer Kane.

Half of the field ran at this Class 3 level last time out, but Galahad Quest (now running for the first-time since a wind op) and Magna Sam both drop from Class 2, whilst Our Jet ran at Grade 2 and Killer Kane ran in a Class 1 handicap.

Most of these have raced in the last two to six weeks or so, but Quick Draw and Magna Sam have both been rested for three months, but that shouldn't pose any issues here.

Quick Draw (2m4½f chase) and Our Jet (2m5f chase) are both former Kempton winners, whilst Killer Kane is two from three over fences at 3m½f here. Quick Draw has also won over a similar trip elsewhere before, as have Neon Moon and Magna Sam. Karl Philippe, Galahad Quest and Unanswered Prayers have yet to score over track or trip...

...with recent relevant form suggesting our winner might well come from Quick Draw, Karl Phillipe, Our Jet and/or Galahad Quest, whilst Neon Moon has made the frame in half of his eight efforts over this trip...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that horses prepared to set the tempo of the race from the front did best of all in similar past races...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could lead you to thinking that would suit Unanswered Prayers, Our Jet, Quick Draw, Galahad Quest and Karl Philippe...

Summary

The horse ticking most boxes for me from the above data is Quick Draw, he brings the best form to the table, his trainer and jockey are both in good nick and both have good records here at Kempton. The horse has won here before and has scored at this trip. He's 3 from 4 in this grade and does like to lead when necessary. Sadly, he's the 5/2 favourite with bet365 (at 6.40pm Sunday), but that's probably about the right price.

Elsewhere I can make cases for (alphabetically) Galahad Quest, Karl Philippe, Neon Moon and Our Jet and I'd probably suggest that Our Jet and Karl Philippe would be the better pair to chase the pick home and with Our Jet currently available at 11/1, he might be a nice E/W option.

 

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 29/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.00 Ayr
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 7.39 Windsor
  • 7.50 Naas
  • 9.00 Wolverhampton

If truth be told, none of the three UK races above appeal to me for one reason or another (never bet in a race that doesn't interest you!), so I'm going to look at the highest-rated/most valuable UK race of the day, the 6.39 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on soft ground...

Early indications/thoughts are that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) top-weight Asgard's Captain, fast-finisher Fast Steps and sole LTO winner Mythical Guest, but let's have a closer look to see what we can find.

Mythical Guest was indeed the only one these nine runners to win last time out, but Fast Steps and First Officer were both runners-up and Asgard's Captain has won three of his last four before going down by four lengths at Lingfield on Good Friday. On the other hand, Enthrallment, Fast Steps and Grey Fox are on losing runs, having been beaten in their last 12, 7 and 8 races respectively.

Fast Steps' and Grey Fox's hopes of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by a step up in class here and LTO winner Mythical Guest is also up from Class 5, but Asgard's Captain, The Whipmaster and First officer all step down a level. Only four of the field have raced in the past month, as Enthrallment, Silver Gunn, First Officer, The Whipmaster and Grey Fox return from respective breaks of 101, 144, 178, 178 and 228 days.

Enthrallment has moved yards during his layoff and is the only one of the nine without a win at a similar trip to this one and of the five to have raced here at Windsor before, only Mythical Guest has failed to win, as The Whipmaster scored here over 1m3½f last June and Silver Gunn, Fast Steps & Grey Fox are all former course and distance winners. This info is shown on Instant Expert, along with details of three former soft ground winners...

...there's no real standout candidate there, but Silver Gunn's numbers are pretty decent. I should refer to Asgard's Captain now being some 34lbs higher than his last win, too. He is indeed running off 89 which is 34lbs higher than the 49 he was rated when winning at Musselburgh in August 2023. Since then, he had a twenty-week break before racing solely on the A/W this year finishing 1521118 winning off marks of 63, 68, 73 and 79, so he's 'only' 4lbs higher than his last actual win and could be weighted nicely if bringing his A/W game to the Turf.

Our draw analyser suggests that those drawn lowest here might be at a disadvantage from a win perspective...

...but have as good a chance of any of making the frame and if we look at how those 40-odd races were won, we find that those prepared to set the pace have been the most successful...

...and if recent races are anything to go by...

...Asgard's Captain could very well be afforded an easy early lead.

Summary

The draw/pace stats suggest a high draw coupled with a willingness to lead could be the perfect storm here with 6 high drawn leaders from 14 making the frame with 4 (28.57%) going on to win...

Asgard's Captain is drawn highest of all and tops the pace chart, he has won 6 of his last 10, 5 of his last 8 and 3 of his last 4 and was a winner on his last outing in this grade, so it's Asgard's Captain at 7/2 (Sunday 5pm) for me here.

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 22/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.22 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Windsor
  • 5.20 Windsor
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Tramore
  • 7.30 Kempton

...from which the highest rated UK race is the 6.00 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m2f on good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but General Medrano was third, Fringill Dike's last four runs have finished 111F, Issar D'Airy's last five are 13115, Alto Alto's last three read 112 and bottom weight Duhallow Tommy has finished 31112 in his last five, so quite a few have been in decent nick. Only Frere D'Armes is on a winless run of more than six races, having lost eight on the bounce. In his defence, they were all Class 1 and 2 races and he did win his last start at this level and is now only 2lbs higher than that win.

So, for me, the 'form' runners are General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade.

As above, Frere D'Armes now drops a class to run here, as do three others in the top six in the weights, Thelasthighking, Prince Escalus and Le Ligieren (trained by the Tizzards who won this race in both '22 and '23), whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are both up from Class 4 for this one, if they do turn out at all.

I suggest that Whodini and Charlie's Glance might not run, because they both ran on Saturday at Bangor, but in different races. The rest of their rivals have had at least three weeks rest with three of them, Prince Escalus, Another Crick and Fringill Dike returning from breaks of longer than seven weeks; 128, 163 and 186 days respectively to be precise! Prince Escalus' connections will hope that wind surgery during his layoff will help here along with a first-time tongue-tie.

We've not much in the way of previous course and/or distance form, but General Medrano. Le Ligieren and Duhallow Tommy have all won at a similar trip to this one, whilst Le Ligieren (2m5f chase) and Another Crick (2m4½f chase) are both former track winners with the class dropping Frere D'Armes our sole course and distance winner, albeit way back in November 2022!

As for other relevant past form, Instant Expert has the numbers as always...

...where Le Ligerien and Another Crick seem to have struggled to win races at this level. The former should like the going, though whilst Prince Escalus' good ground record isn't the best after quite a few attempts, but he is now rated 4lbs below his last win unlike Issar D'Airy and Thelasthighking who now run off marks 8lbs and 9lbs higher than their last win. Frere D'Armes looks dangerous albeit off a small sample size of races.

Irrespective of their ability to win the race, the place data from those races above should show us who might run a decent (if not ultimately successful) race...

...where Another Crick looks one of the least likely to get involved. Thelasthighking is interesting at this class of race with 4 places from 4 to go with a 2 from 2 track place record, but he's not my idea of a winner with that extra 9lbs to burden.

Monday's free Geegeez Gold feature is, of course, PACE and our unique pace analyser tells us that in similar past contests, leaders have accounted for 12.9% (32/248) of the runners, but have managed to win 31.8% (7/22) of the races and provide 20.6% (14/68) of the placers...

...so if possible, I want us to be on a horse that likes to lead or be up with the pace and we can make a reasoned assumption (guess?) as to who might lead, by looking at how the field have run in their last few races by allocating a score 4 to those that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for a mid-division positioning and 1 for those who were held-up as follows...

Fringill Dike is a confirmed front-runner and Le Ligierien also likes to be kept handy, whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are definite hold-up types.

Summary

The horses that I considered to be in the best form were General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade. All of these should be involved in the final mix and Frere D'Armes was one of few to catch the eye on Instant Expert along with Thelasthighking, but of the 'form' horses, Fringill Dike looks best suited from a pace perspective, so Fringill Dike is my tentative pick here at 6/1 based on this show at 6.15pm on Sunday...

Frere D'Armes and Duhallow Tommy should both run decent races, but if I was to think about an E/W bet, then Thelasthighking might well fit the bill at 10's. I was thinking about General Medrano at a similar price, but I'm worried that the ground/race might end up being a bit too quick for him.



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Racing Insights, Monday 15/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.50 Windsor
  • 3.42 Redcar
  • 4.20 Windsor
  • 6.30 Kempton

from which, I'm going to look at the 3.42 Redcar, a Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft/heavy ground. It's my first foray into the 2024 Flat campaign, so fingers crossed as I go through this card...

The top two on the card, Noble Order and Look Back Smiling both won last out with the the latter now on a hat-trick, whilst the former has won two of his last three. Of the remainder, only Shaladar and Titian are winless in six, having been beaten in their last twelve and eleven races respectively.

Shaladar is denoted as being a fast finisher (clearly not fast enough!) and he does have the benefit of having raced in this grade last time out, as do Legend of Leros and Ron O with the other seven all moving one class. Noble Order steps up from a win at Class 4, but Look Back Smiling, Pisanello, Spirit Genie, Spirit Genie, Thunder Roar, Titian and Clear Angel all drop down from Class 2.

After breaks of 117, 152 and 185 days respectively, you could say that Legend of Leros, Shaladar and Pisanello might be in need of a run and Legend of Leros was gelded during his break and now sports a tongue tie for the first time.

Legend of Leros is also one of three runners (along with Spirit Genie and Thunder Roar) yet to win over this trip, whilst Ron O is the only previous Redcar (and counrse and distance) winner in the field...

There's not a lot to write home about from Instant Expert above, but Thunder Roar should appreciate the underfoot conditions and he does come here off the back of an excellent season-opener in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, where he was only half a length behind Look Back Smiling (and is a pound better off here). Pisanello has struggle to win Class 3 races on turf (1 from 9). Ron O loves the mile track here at Redcar, where he is 2 from 3, but his overall profile is erratic and unreliable.

A quick look at the place stats only really serves to put another cross by the name of Legend of Leros...

...so we'll move swiftly to the data we have on draw and today's feature, pace.

It's not the biggest sample size I've ever worked with, but the data from past races here at Redcar show that horses drawn lowest have fared best over straight races...

...and if we look at the pace profile of those races, we see that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place...

...but the other three running styles have gone well enough with those just in behind the leader(s) doing best of all. The combined pace/draw heat map goes on to suggest that low-drawn runners who race in mid-division are the ones to beat...

...closely followed by low-drawn prominence, low-drawn leaders and mid-drawn prominent runners.

We already know our draw...

...and we can look back on the field's last few races to make an educated guess as to how they'll run today...

...giving us this...

Summary

Titian, Noble Order, Legend of Leros and Thunder Roar look the most likely from our pace/draw heat map, but Titian was only 14th of 18 in the Spring Mile where Look Back smiling and Thunder Roar finished 1-2. I don't see him making up over 16 lengths on that pair today, so he's a no from me; as was Legend of Leros from an early stage of my analysis.

We didn't glean much from Instant Expert today, but we did learn that Thunder Roar should love the underfoot conditions, coming here with a soft/heavy record reading 213112. He's also in good nick with two wins and two places from his last four outings and an overall 70% place record on turf. He's a pound better off with his LTO victor, Look Back Smiling, today and that must give him a great shout here. Whether he reverses the placings is unclear, but either way, I suspect that this pair will both have to play second fiddle to Noble Order, who defied a 15-month absence to win cosily back in February.

That said, Noble Order's a bit shorter than I hoped he might be, so I'd probably suggest that E/W plays on Look Back Smiling and/or Thunder Roar would be the play today, based the odds offered at 6.45pm Sunday.

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 08/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.08 Wincanton
  • 4.30 Lingfield

...from which I've selected the 4.08 Wincanton as it's the highest-rated race of the four. It's an 8-runner (Dartmoor Pirate doesn't run), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Home Free has made the frame in each of his five starts to dates, getting off the mark with a 14-lengths success at Lingfield five weeks agao when last seen, whilst Toss Of A Coin is 2 from 2 under rules having justified his odds on favouritism in both starts since leaving his pointing days behind (he also won his last PTP). All the field have won at least one of their last seven races, though and all have had at least one run since the 10th February.

LTO winner Home Free steps up a class for his handicap debut (it's also Toss of a Coin's handicap bow), but both Bourbali (PU LTO) and Issam (15th of 16) drop down a level from Class 2, whilst top-weight Hardy Du Seuil is down two classes after being pulled up in Grand Annual at this year's Cheltenham Festival almost four weeks ago. Issam will also wear cheekpieces for the first time today.

Monviel is the only former course winner, having landed a Class 4, 1m7½f, maiden hurdle back in January 2022, mind you only Bourbali (7th of 16 and 2nd of 5 in two visits) of his rivals have been here before, but three of them; Hardy du Seuil, Bourbali and Toss of a Coin have won over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert tells us that only Home Free isn't running off a higher mark than his last win and that he along with Monviel and Toss of a Coin have already won on heavy ground...

...although if truth be told, we've not actually got a great deal of relevant past races to deal with. The trip looks like it has started to be a bit of an issue for American Sniper and Issam, who are a cumulative 0 from 10, although they have both made the frame in three of their defeats...

Feature of the day is, of course, the pace data and we can look at this in two ways. Firstly we can see how similar past races (if there are any) have unfolded via the Pace Analyser, which today says...

...that in 6-10 runner, heavy ground hurdles here at Wincanton over 2m2f to 2m6f (we widen the parameters to give a more workable dataset), that it really paid to be setting the tempo (pace) of the race. This is of course, very useful knowledge, if you know which horses like to lead and which don't.

Thankfully the second facet to our pace offering is the actual pace tab on the race card itself and clicking that will give you something like this...

...suggesting the main pace here is with Toss of a Coin, Bourbali and Monviel, whilst Home Free made all in his comprehensive win last time out.

Summary

Pace and race suitability are key here and Toss of a Coin, Bourbali, Monviel and Home Free are the ones likely to be setting the tempo of the contest and they were the four that make most sense from the Instant Expert data, so they form the half of the field that I'd want to be with here.

You could make a case for all four and I suspect it'll be a decent contest, but having seen the 5.40pm odds...

...it'd be Home Free at 5/1 for me. He looks to have been very leniently treated for his handicap debut and will no doubt need to fend off a few rivals to win, but the price is attractive, as is the 12/1 about Bourbali. Whilst he has struggled over fences this winter, he was a runner-up in a Class 2 contest over this trip on his last hurdles outing, albeit a year ago. Any semblance of that kind of form gives him a chance of making the frame and he's a better horse than 12/1, so he could be a profitable E/W angle.



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Racing Insights, Monday 25/03/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.20 Exeter
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 6.00 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 3.35 Huntingdon, a Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will effectively be 2m 4.3f after a 97 yard rail adjustment. The track is right-handed, the going is expected to good to soft and here's the card...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Calvic at least finish third, but Stumps or Slips, Hector Jaguen and Cloudy Wednesday all failed to get round.

Top-weight Icaque de L'isle and Family Business both drop down a class here and Calvic is the only runner not wearing any headgear or equipment.

All bar Stumps or Slips have raced in the last 8 weeks, but a 209-day absence for 'Stumps' could be an issue here. although he, like Family Business, does at least have some winning form at this kind of trip, whilst Master Malcolm and Cloudy Wednesday are both former course and distance winners...

Instant Expert looks like a sea of red...

...but Stumps or Slips and Master Malcolm do manage to emerge with some credit, especially the latter off a mark only 2lbs higher than his last win, whilst the place stats from those races...

...firmly bring the likes of Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic into the mix along with Master Malcolm. Of these four, our pace tab suggests that Master Malcolm and Icaque de l'isle are likely to be up with the pace early doors...

...with Stumps or Slips the back marker. We can then use this info when we check our Pace Analyser, which tells us that...

...those horses that race prominently have the best chance of making the frame, but they can't always catch the leaders, who win more often than any other running style.

Summary

Leaders win most often in this type of contest and Master Malcolm looks like being the front runner. He was also the standout in a fairly mediocre-looking Instant Expert and whilst not in the best form of late, I think he has a good chance of at least a place ands at 7/1, I'd be happy to take him as an E/W option here.

I suspect that Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic will also go well, but none are going to be longer to take a punt in my opinion.



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Racing Insights, Monday 18/03/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.40 Curragh
  • 4.18 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Newcastle

Monday's racing is generally pretty poor and the Monday following the Cheltenham Festival is usually even worse and such is the case again this year, I'm afraid. We've a card or rider restricted races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and 13 NH races at Fontwell and Southwell, the highest-rated of which are half a dozen at Class 4. Of those six races, the only one with more than six runners is a 10-runner maiden where the field only have 34 previous races between them.

So, I'll be honest with you here, I probably won't be having a bet on any of Monday's racing, but for the sake of the column, I'm going to look at the 4.30 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on soft ground over what is essentially 2m 5.25f after a rail movement of 188 yards...

My initial thoughts are that the bottom two on the card, Quian & Over Milk Wood would be up against it here, but that you could probably make a case for any of the other four...

POZO EMERY has finished in the first three home in all of his five starts over hurdles, but has only won once (2m3½f) and comes here on the back of a 16 length defeat as a runner-up at Sandown last time out. Up in trip today and tries the tongue tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time.

FLYING FORTUNE makes a handicap debut in his fourth start over hurdles having finished 3411 in four bumpers in the first half of 2023. Her best run over hurdles was his second effort when a 3 length runner-up at Newton Abbot in October, but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ffos Las last time out. That was over four months ago, so she's a layoff to contend with too.

HOSTILE HOTELIER is up in class here and wears a tongue tie for the first time and comes here off the back of a pair of runner-up finishes, albeit in defeats of 7.5 lengths over hurdles and by 12 lengths over fences last time out. He did win on his handicap hurdle debut last November and now races at just 4lbs higher than that win.

JUBILEE GOLD has only raced five times so far, but has a win and two places from the three races he has completed and was only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield on soft ground last time out. The winner of that race won again next time out and the third placed horse has finished second and first in his two run since. This horse is up in class here, though.

QUIAN won two starts ago at Taunton, but that run was the exception to how he normally fares, having lost his previous six races by an average of 54 lengths per race and reverted back to losing ways last time out, when only fifth of six at Huntingdon. has failed to see 2m out regularly, so 2m5f-plus poses more problems here.

OVER MILK WOOD has yet to make the frame in seven starts and has been beaten by 92, 24, 60, 7, 31, 59 and 74 lengths in those races. In his defence, he does drop in class here for his second handicap run and has at least tackled this trip before, but I'm struggling for other positives if truth be told.

We're not going to get much from the win stats on Instant Expert, so I'm showing you the place data too...

...which would suggest we're better off focusing on Pozo Emery, Flying Fortune and Jubilee Gold in a type of contest where leaders and hold-up horses haven't fared as well as those positioned somewhere between the two, which based on the field's last few runs...

...isn't the best news for Jubilee Gold from my trio of Instant Expert standouts.

Summary

A poor race on an awful day of racing, where I won't be having a bet, but if I was having one in this race, my tentative pick would be Pozo Emery at 7/1 E/W. Jubilee Gold and Flying Fortune should also be in the mix, but it's not a race to spend too much time on.



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