Tag Archive for: pace

Racing Insights, Monday 02/09/24

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Sorry for the late posting of the column today, I've had some tech gremlins going on at home the past few days, but hopefully all is now fixed!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.10 Roscommon
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most runners is the 7.30 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Betweenthesticks won last time out, whilst Jungle Run finished third on his last start. Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both won their penultimate outings and Cabeza De Llave won six races ago, but Papa Don't Preach, Agostino and Jungle Run are currently on losing streaks of 12, 7 & 9 respectively, whilst Chiedozie is still a maiden after 13 attempts.

Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both drop down a class here and as a three year old, the latter gets a 1lb weight allowance, as does the maiden Chiedozie.

Chiedozie is, of course, yet to win over 5f, but so are Agostino and Jungle Run, whilst Tilsworth Ony Ta and Cabeza de Llave are both former course and distance winners, albeit from July 2022 and June 2022 respectively.

These course and distance wins are too far back to make it onto what looks a pretty bleak 2-year window on Instant Expert...

...which probably doesn't help mus find a winner, but does highlight the scarcity of wins in general from this field and more specifically Betweenthesticks at going/trip, Papa Don't Preach (trip), Agostino (trip) and also Cabeza de Llave at the trip. let's hope the place records are more helpful...

At last, some green! But Papa Don't Preach still struggles at the trip, whilst both Agostino and Cabeza de Llave look generally weak, although the latter is now some 10lbs below his last turf win (he did win on the A/W fairly recently off 57, though). Betweenthesticks has some decent numbers too and at 13lbs below his last turf win, he could be dangerous too. Tilsworth Ony Ta is probably/possibly the pick of the pack on place stats.

On a quick straight 5f, there shouldn't be much of a draw bias here, but past races have favoured those drawn highest, especially from stall 5 and higher, when it comes to making the frame...

...but pace (our daily feature) is clearly a different matter with over half of front-runners holding on for at least a place and over 40% of those placers going on to win. The graph shows an almost linear improvement in win chances the further forward a horse races here over 5f at Windsor...

...which based on recent runs, could be good news for the likes of Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta...

Summary

Pace is generally key here over the shorter trips at Windsor and on that basis, I'm splitting the pack in half and focusing upon Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta from the pace data above. If we then look back at the draw stats, Jungle Run looks least favoured from stall one as the other trio will emerge from boxes 5, 6 and 8.

Agostino was the weakest of the four on Instant Expert and has yet to win any of twelve starts on Turf, making the frame just once, so I'm effectively picking between Tilsworth Ony Ta and Betweenthesticks with the latter in marginally better form.

Betweenthesticks is the most likely winner today in my opinion, but at odds ranging from 15/8 to 9/4 as of 8.35am on Monday, I'm not really tempted to jump in. You can, however, get 8/1 about Tilsworth from Bet365, Sky & Hills, so that might be the E/W value play today, but as ever on a Monday my advice is not to dig too deeply into your pockets.



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Racing Insights, Monday 26/08/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.47 Southwell
  • 3.05 Downpatrick
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 3.40 Downpatrick
  • 3.52 Epsom
  • 6.05 Southwell

I was almost tempted by the Amateur Derby, but the best (on paper, anyway) of these looks like being the 3.35 Chepstow, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to soft ground...

...where every single runner is up in class and both Kalama Sunshine and Fact or Fable come here on the back of a win with the former having five wins and two runner-up finishes from her last seven starts including finishes of 1121 over course and distance.

Stockpyle, Valkyrian, Believe You Me, Racing Demon and Fact Or Fable have all won at least two of their last five runs, but Magical Merlin and Macs Dilemma are winless in eight and eleven respectively.

Lady Flora is the sole 3yo in the race and receives a 6lbs allowance for that and like half of the field will be ridden by a claimer. Trainer John O'Shea sends three runners here and aside from Racing Demon who returns from a 53-day break, the field have all had a race this month.

Magical Merlin and Bantry have yet to win at track or trip and of the ten previous course winners here at Catterick, only Believe You Me, Macs Dilemma and Soi Dao are without a course and distance win, although the latter has won over this trip elsewhere, but she's only one from eight over the last couple of years as referenced by Instant Expert...

...where the top half of the card looks stronger than the bottom and Macs Dilemma, Letter of The Law and Bantry all look weak with the latter also having a terrible place record...

...and I think I want to be focusing upon these runners today...

Our Draw Analyser says that off an albeit small sample of races that those drawn more centrally have performed best, but it is a small sample so we must tread carefully...

...whilst the Pace Analysis of those races says that horses who race further forward have the best chances of making the frame and going on to win...

...with the pace/draw heat map looking like this...

...and this field's most recent outings suggest we could have a bit of a burn up...

Of the seven runners I highlighted from Instant Expert, I'm going to cross Racing Demon off after seeing that he's likely to be held up. A quick glance back at the pace/draw heat map says that ideally we'd have a mid-drawn front runner (Valkyrian), a mid-drawn prominent runner (Lady Flora) and a high-drawn leader (Stockpyle) and seeing as we have one of each, we'll take them to the final analysis.

Summary

Instant Expert, Draw, Pace and the Pace/Draw combinations have brought us to a three-runner shortlist of Valkyrian, Lady Flora and Stockpyle, who I think all have a great chance of at least making the frame. I'd also like to throw Kalama Sunrise's name into the equation/hat, because even though she doesn't appear to fit well here in stall 2, she'll certainly be up with the pace, she did score well on Instant Expert, she's in great form and is the track/trip specialist.

Kalama Sunrise is, therefore my marginal pick just ahead of the excellent Lady Flora. These two should be too good for the others, but Stockpyle & Valkyrian might have a good battle for minor honours. No odds were available at 3.55pm Sunday, but with the bookies paying four places here, if we can get 8/1 or bigger about any of these four, a nice E/W bet could be the ticket.



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Racing Insights, Monday 12/08/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.45 Kempton
  • 3.20 Kempton
  • 4.10 Ayr
  • 7.53 Ballinrobe

...from which I'm going to look at the 4.10 Ayr, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good ground...

As is often the case with these Class 6 handicaps, many of the runners have low win strike rates and three of this field (Colour Code, Agnes Grey and Angel of the Bay are a combined 0 from 28 after failing to win any of their 8, 12 and 8 starts respectively.

Following on from this, none of the field managed to win last time out, but Novak and Sir Garfield were runners-up, the latter failing by just a head over this track and trip as recently as Saturday, when the re-opposing Braes of Doune was third, just a further neck behind.

None of the other ten made the frame on their last outing and only Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment, Sir Garfield, Banner Road and the in-form (8 top 3 finishes from his last 10 races) Braes of Doune have managed a win in their last seven races.

Angel of the Bay and Sir Garfield are still 3 yr olds, so they receive a handy 6lb allowance here and the latter also drops down a class today, as do five others (Trais Fluors, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment, Colour Code and bottom weight Braes of Doune), whilst Monhammer and Banner Road both drop in from Class 4.

Sir Garfield had Braes of Doune a neck behind him on Saturday and Colour Code also ran in the same race, but was last home of ten, beaten by almost fourteen lengths, so all three have a quick turnaround, but the entire field have had at least one run in the last seven weeks.

Five of the field (Novak, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment & Black Friday) have won over course and distance whilst Banner Road and Braes of Doune have both won here at Ayr over a mile and 1m2f respectively; Sir Garfield won over this trip at Catterick.

The two-year win stats on Instant Expert aren't the best, but Novak, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler and Ahamoment seem to be the headliners...

...although with so much red around and many runners with low win returns, we're going to need to look at the place stats...

...an they paint a much rosier picture, but I need to whittle this field down now and the way I've decided to go is stick with runners with at least three blocks of green from the first four (going, class, course and distance) columns, although I did let Monhammer sneak in with 2 green and 2 amber...

My runners are strung across the stalls from 4 to 13 (Darbucks will run from 13, not 14 after a non-runner), so I was hoping there's not too much of a draw bias, so I've still got plenty of choices. The draw data suggests that stalls 3 to 7 might be the best places to be berthed from a win perspective, although stalls 8 and above have better place records...

Monday's free feature is pace and those races above have tended to be dominated by front runners...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map identifies the optimum combination for this race, ie a front-runner from stalls 5 to 9...

...and if we check this field's last few races...

...Sir Garfield probably comes closest to filling that brief.

Summary

Sir Garfield had the best last run, scored well on IE and is probably the closest to the ideal draw/pace make-up, so he's in my top three. And if he's in then the in-form Braes of Doune also needs to be in, as they're so closely matched and Braes rarely fails to make the frame and my third runner would be Novak. His last run was his best for some considerable time, he's now 9lbs below his last winning mark and also scored really well on Instant Expert.

So, they're my three against the field. I'd no odds to hand at 4pm Sunday, but I suspect all three will be towards the top of the market and I doubt any will be an E/W price. Sir garfield is the most likely to win, but Novak will offer the best value.



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Racing Insights, Monday 05/08/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

    • 2.05 Cork
    • 2.45 Lingfield
  • 4.00 Ripon
  • 5.50 Carlisle

...where the 'best' of the three UK races (on paper, at least) would seem to be the 4.00 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

INTERNATIONAL GIRL won her over course and distance three starts and two months ago and despite only finishing 7th of 14 last time out, was within 4 lengths of the winner at a higher grade than this and now drops in class.

TWELFTH KNIGHT was a course and distance winner here almost a year ago, but has failed to make the frame in any of his six outings since, including four here at Ripon, of which three were over today's trip, so he's now 6lbs below his last winning mark.

FORTAMOUR has only won five of his last thirty-nine races, but all five wins came over course and distance, the latest being in April and he has finished 4th of 13, 3rd of 9 and 3rd of 12 since but remains 5lbs higher than that last win and a step up in class here isn't likely to be helpful.

KINGS MERCHANT also steps up a class after a career-best effort to win last time out for a second win in three starts. He's now 3lbs higher than that win by a short-head at Doncaster 11 days ago, so might find this tougher up in class and weight on his Ripon debut.

MATTICE has won just once (at Redcar) in fourteen attempts at 6f, but has won here at Ripon over 5f as recently as may this year. Has had mixed results since then (4th of 21, 14th of 16, 4th of 13, 11th of 18 and 7th of 11) so a good run is only as likely as a poor one from this inconsistent runner.

BAY BREEZE is four from ten over course and distance and won this race last year off a mark some 11lbs higher than today. He was a decent 4th of 21 at York last time out and he has been eased by 1lb for his return to his favoured track and trip. Having not scored since last year's renewal, he'd not be winning out of turn, although he is back up in class today.

Twelfth Knight is probably/possibly the marginal pick of the pack when it comes to the 2yr win records on Instant Expert, but it's a fairly low bar that has been set...

...Bay Breeze would probably prefer a bot more cut in the ground whilst Fortamour and Mattice have both struggled to win at this trip of late, but both have reasonable enough place stats...

...to suggest they might get involved. These place stats don't really rule any of them out of the equation, although Twelfth Knight does seem to be a win or bust type at this trip and whilst their records at this trip have improved via the place stats, there are now doubts over Fortamour and Mattice in Class 3 company, especially with the former being rated 5lbs higher than his last win.

The draw stats for previous similar races suggest that those drawn lowest have fared best...

...so that could be good for Bay Breeze and Twelfth Knight over a track and trip that have certainly benefited those willing to set the pace...

...and when we combine draw with pace, we get the following heat map...

...which not only suggests that the pace of the race has more bearing on the result than the draw does (which stands to reason over a straight 6f), it also says that Bay Breeze could get away with not being the front-runner thanks to getting the plum draw, but Kings Merchant in stall 6 could do with getting a wriggle on! He'll probably race quite prominently, but looking at this field's most recent efforts, he might well find himself in mid-division behind the two lowest drawn runners...

Summary

I'd expect Kings Merchant to be very popular based on him winning two of his last three, but he only narrowly won last time out and is now up in class and weight. This means he might have to play second fiddle to course and dsitance specialist Bay Breeze, who'll have the rail to guide him and the benefit of receiving weight all round.

The bookies (as of 6pm Sunday) disagree with me, of course..

...but that 12/1 about Twelfth Knight is very interesting from a possible E/W angle.



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Racing Insights, Monday 29/07/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 4.50 Galway
  • 7.40 Windsor
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

All three UK races are the same standard, so with it being a Monday night, let's have a quick look at the 7.40 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over slightly further than a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Atlantis Blue and More Than A Feeling both got off the mark last time out, albeit after 14 and 4 defeats respectively. Delicacy was third after a pair of runner-up finishes, but remains a maiden after eight starts, whilst Resonance is a seven-race maiden. Mirroring is 1 from 8, having won four starts ago at Epsom, back in August 2023 and Mizuumi is 1 from 4 despite winning on debut back in December. She has been last home of four in two of her three starts since. Cherry Hill has won just one of ten, which was at Kempton in September of last year. She has been beaten four times since, including being last home of ten on two occasions.

Mirroring will wear a hood for the first time today, whilst the fast-finisher More Than A Feelin steps up in class, as does Cherry Hill. At the ages of 4 and 5, the top three on the card (Atlantis Blue, Resonance & Soi Dao) are effectively 8lbs out of the handicap here, as they don't get the weight allowance that the five others get as three year olds. Resonance last raced just over eight weeks ago and the others have all had a run in the last 33 days. Despite the field only having won 8 of 93 combined starts (Soi Dao is 3 from 36 out of that!), Atlantis Blue, Soi Dao and Mizuumi have all still managed a win over today's trip. Only four of the field have raced at Windsor before (once each) with two placed efforts being the best results to date, meaning that we're probably going to get more from the place element of Instant Expert than we are from the win stats...

All of which is pretty uninspiring if truth be told, isn't it? That said, Atlantis Blue, Delicacy and Cherry Hill are probably the take-aways from this. These three will run from stalls 2, 5 and 6 and whilst there's no huge draw bias here, the lower drawn runners might just have a slight edge...

...but it is slight, for sure. Race positioning, however, is a different matter. We call this PACE and it's Monday's free feature and Windsor certainly suits those brave enough to set the tempo and if we look at how those races above have panned out, you'd probably agree with me that pace is more important than draw today...

...and this belief is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at the pace scores from the field's last few races...

...you'd have to say that Atlantis Blue and Delicacy would be best positioned.

Summary

From Instant Expert, Atlantis Blue, Delicacy and Cherry Hill had the edge and it's Atlantis Blue and Delicacy who look best positioned on pace, so that's the pair I'm siding with here. I've no prices (as of Sunday 4.15pm) to guide me, so I'll suggest that Delicacy would be the one I'd go with marginally. She seems in more consistent form despite winning and the booking of Tom Marquand is a bonus here.

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 22/07/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 6.10 Ballinrobe
  • 6.20 Windsor
  • 7.30 Beverley
  • 7.50 Windsor

...the highest-rated of which is only Class 4. Mind you, as ide from one Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase at nearby (to me, anyway) Cartmel, Class 4 is as good as it gets in the UK on another miserable Monday. The race in question here is the 7.50 Windsor, a six-runner, Class 4, fillies' flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

NAAEY was a runner-up and then a winner on her first two starts (both at Class 5), but found life tougher last time out when 7th of 8 (beaten by 15 lengths) in a Listed race at Pontefract, just under a fortnight ago. She's now down three classes for her handicap debut and should put up a better show here.

MOTHER MARY has gone six races without a win, since landing a 7f Novice event at Thirsk almost a year ago. She has failed to even make the frame in three handicap runs to date and was 15th of 24 in a Class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. She drops two classes to run here, but it's hard to have much confidence in her and she steps up in trip by 2f.

WARREN HILL tends to be there or thereabouts without clocking the wins up as recent results of 4144 would testify. She has won two of the thirteen career starts so far and is probably best left watched on her return from over five months off track. Both career wins have however been over today's trip.

STAR JASMINE won over a mile on heavy ground at Bath at the start of April and was only beaten by a short head and a nose over 1m1f at Hamilton seven weeks ago but was disappointing at York last time out when only 10th of 18. She's down in class here, though and also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

SEEK AND DESTROY makes a handicap debut after finishing second (beaten by a nose) and then first over today's trip. Both races were Class 5 affairs, though, so she's up in class here today, but her last run/win was here over course and distance. Also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

SEA REGAL has also only raced three times before and managed to win over today's trip two starts ago. She didn't seem to 'get' 1m4f last time out, but now drops back in trip. She is, however, up in class for her handicap debut, but does benefit from that 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

We're obviously not holding too much data about a field of six with a combined 35 races (Warren Hill & Mother Mary have raced 21 times between them!), but this is what Instant Expert can tell us...

Only Warren Hill has won a flat handicap so far and she's now rated 6lbs higher than that win, but she has two good runs under her belt on good to firm ground, despite not winning, but she has won at the trip and has also made the frame in one of her Class 4 defeats, as well as over 1m2f. Seek and Destroy is probably the best equipped off what little data we do have. She'll emerge from stall 1 today, but I don't think there's a 'good' or a 'bad' part of the stalls to emerge from here, based on past results, anyway...

...so I'm hoping to get some help from our feature of the day 'PACE' which we can assess in two ways. Firstly we can see how those 70-odd races above have been won...

...with front-runners definitely the horses to be on. Secondly, regarding pace, we can also look at how his field have approached their last few races ie...

...suggesting that Sea Regal, Seek And Destroy and possibly Naaey will be the ones setting the tempo.

Summary

Seek And Destroy won over course and distance last time out, having narrowly failed to win her previous outing. She was the standout on Instant Expert, albeit off limited data and she's likely to be front and forward early doors here, just as is needed at Windsor, so it's Seek And Destroy for me today.

There are then pros and cons for each of the other five as to who might pose the biggest challenge, but Sea Regal will also be prominent and dis win over this trip at the last time she tackled it. She also gets the weight allowance like Seek And Destroy, so Sea Regal is my next best here.

At 4.50pm Sunday, Bet365 were offering 4/1 and 11/4 about Seek An d Destroy respectively with Naaey a 2/1 favourite, so we might have a bit of value.



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Racing Insights, Monday 15/07/23

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 7.25 Killarney
  • 8.10 Wolverhampton
  • 8.20 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a quick look at the 8.20 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

FORM : Fast Steps, Expert Witness and Morcar all won their last races and God of Fire comes here on a hat-trick. pink Lily has won two of her last three, whilst only Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are winless in at least seven races, having been beaten in their previous ten, seven and eight outings respectively.

CLASS : All four LTO winners are up one class here, as is the fast-finishing Tribal Wisdom who was a half-length runner-up to Morcar last time around. Pink Lily also steps up in class after failing to complete a hat-trick when only fourth of five at Newmarket. Spirit of the Bay should find this a little easier today, as she drops down a class after finishing 6th of 7 over 1m2f here at Windsor, beaten by more than eight lengths a fortnight ago.

LAST RACE : All thirteen runners have had at least one run in the last five (God of Fire) to thirty-one (New Heights) days, so all should be race-tuned.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORDS : Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if any...

Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if there is one...

New Heights and Morcar should also like the underfoot conditions, but Silver Gunn is 0 from 5 on good to firm, the same record that both New Heights and Morcar have at Class 4, whilst the trip seems to have been an issue for Silver Gunn, Spirit of the Bay and Tribal Wisdom, but at least Spirit of the Bay is now rated 6lbs lower than her last win with Fast Steps, God of Fire, Expert Witness and Pink Lily all at 5/6 lbs higher than their last wins.

From a place perspective...

Fast Steps still looks the one to beat but from the going/class/course/distance categories Expert Witness also has two blocks of green and is untried at class/track and at this stage, the ones I'm still interested in are...

Previous similar races haven't shown much in the way of a draw bias, but that's not entirely unexpected over a trip of this distance with both left and right handed turns...

...but this is where our feature of the day, the pace data, comes into its own. Those races above were quite fairly shared out through the various sectors of the stalls, but they were dominated by front-runners...

...who won 24% of the races by providing just 10.2% of the runners and also accounted for over 18.5% of the placers, so whilst the draw might not make or break a runner's chances here at Windsor, there's certainly an advantage in being up with the pace and if we consider how these horses have approached their last few races...

...that's got be a positive for the likes of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily.

Summary

Fast Steps was the standout from Instant Expert and is a former course and distance winner and would probably be my pick, but for the way he has been ridden in recent races. He's going to need to get involved a little sooner here if he's to win and with that not certain to happen, I'll keep him as a placer rather than a winner.

I'm going to then take the first two from the pace list of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily, as they bring the best recent form to the table, God of Fire heads the pace charts and Expert Witness was the other standout from Instant Expert.

All of which gives me God of Fire, Expert Witness and Fast Steps as my three against the field. Expert Witness' LTO win came over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago and she beat God Of Fire by a length and three quarters off equal weights. God of Fire is two from two since then and will now carry 3lbs more than Expert Witness, so I'm going to side with Expert Witness here.

We'd no odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday (early dart for the football!), so here are the best 'guesstimates' from Oddschecker, Racing Post and Timeform respectively...

...which suggest there might be a bit of value in the price for Expert Witness here.



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Racing Insights, Monday 01/07/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.15 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Pontefract
  • 7.15 Windsor
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a look at the 7.15 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm, ground...

...where hat-trick seeking  and fast-finishing Haymaker is the sole LTO winner, although Aramis Grey and Amazonian Dream finished second and third respectively on their last outings. Yet despite being a regular placer (15 top 3 finishes from her last 19 races), Aramis Grey is the only runner in this field without a win in starts, having suffered eleven defeats on the bounce and her cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a class here, as does Under The Twilight, whilst 'form horse' Haymaker is up two classes.

Rohaan and Wallop both last raced eight weeks ago and the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 10-23 days, so we should have no fitness issues from a field where all eight have won at least once over today's trip and all bar the afore-mentioned Rohaan and Wallop have won over course and distance, Mind you, neither has been to Windsor before, as demonstrated by Instant Expert...

...where my main concerns are the lack of Class 2 wins aside from Rohaan, of course and Aramis Grey's poor win record at this trip plus the fact she's some 15lbs higher than her last win. That, I suppose, is the danger of running well, but not quite well enough to win.

With the lack of Class 2 wins above, it might well be worth looking at Class 3 form...

...where Katey Kontent has been the standout with all of Under The Twilight's wins coming at Class 4. With the lack of Class 2 form above, I've included the Class 3 data in the place stats from above...

...and here you can see some of Aramis Grey's placed finishes that I mentioned earlier as she, along with Under The Twilight, Haymaker, Katey Kontent and Shagraan seem the ones to focus upon.

There shouldn't be too much of an advantage for any of these runners from the draw, although Amazonian Dream should be aware that there's a fair drop off beyond stall 7...

...and whilst those draw stats aren't a huge help to us, our feature of the day is PACE and we're at Windsor for a straight 6f on quick ground, where pace is key. We didn't get much help from the draw in those 110+ races, but just look at how they were won...

...which speaks for itself, I think. So, we want to be on a front-runner and preferably not from stall 8, so if we look at how the field has approached its last few outings...

...we can make a fairly reasoned assumption that Shagraan might well attempt to win this from the front from stall 2 with the in-form Haymaker the one most likely to give chase.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but from the pace chart (which is key at Windsor), Shagraan and Haymaker could be a fair way clear of Aramis Grey, Katey Kontent and Under The Twilight (I'd already ruled Wallop, Amazonian Dream and Rohaan out of my considerations) and I'm certainly wanting these front-runners in my final three.

As for the third placer, I actually think that Katey Kontent might well be the best horse in the race, but won't be suited by the pace of this one but should still make the frame. As for the winner, I prefer Shagraan over Haymaker, as the former will be out in front first and the latter is up two classes, but should still place.

Sadly, though, the bookies are also on to this pace bias at Windsor and as of 4.45pm Sunday, they went...

Based on the above, perennial placer Aramis Grey might not be a bad E/W shout if any of my preferred trio fail to fire.



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Racing Insights, Monday 17/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  3.18 Chepstow
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Kilbeggan
  • 7.45 Kilbeggan

The two UK races above are Class 4/5 affairs, but with the daily feature in mind, there are a couple of Class 3 sprints on the evening card at Windsor. One has sixteen runners, so I'll swerve that in favour of the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sole filly Queen’s Guard is the only LTO winner and has two wins and two places from her last four outings. Aramram won two races ago and fast finisher Salvuccio won five starts back, as did Beyond Borders when completing a hat-trick. Jimmy Speaking won two of his last three, Sky Warrior won four races ago and despite three losses on the bounce, The Good Biscuit is still two from five, so this could be a useful contest.

Salvuccio is the only one of the seven who raced at Class 3 last time and he now wears first time blinkers. Aramram makes a handicap debut and is the only class dropper in the field with the other five runners all stepping up from Class 4. All bar Salvuccio have won over this trip, but we’ve no former course winners amongst a group that have all raced in the last 17 days and according to Instant Expert...

...mainly have a good win record over 6f. The Good Biscuit will like the ground here, having won two from three, whilst from a place perspective...

...it's probably time to write Salvuccio off from my considerations. Unusually over a straight 6f, there does seem to be abit of a draw bias in these smaller fields with stalls 1 to 3 having the best win records and stalls 1 to 5 faring best for the places, which might not bode well for Jimmy Speaking or Aramram...

If we then return to our feature of the day, pace, we see that those 90-odd races above have been dominated by front runners...

...making the success of low drawn leaders in the following pace/draw heat map of little surprise...

We can now check how these runners have approached their most recent races...

...data that opens the door for the two highest drawn runners, Jimmy Speaking and Aramram.

Summary

There's no standout runner here in what looks a tight contest. Queen's Guard is one of the form horses, but she seems unsuited by her pace profile and is up 7lbs for her LTO win, so I think that Jimmy Speaking might be a safer option at 13/2 with Hills (8.15pm Sunday), he's going to be up with the pace and has won two of his last three. Hopefully he'll edge the filly out and land the forecast too.



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Racing Insights, Monday 10/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  4.40 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 5.48 Roscommon
  • 6.18 Roscommon

Neither of the UK 'free' races really appeal to me, so I'm going just look at the day's highest-rated race, the 7.40 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Rocking Ends is our sole LTO winner, although Isle of Lismore won his penultimate race and was a runner-up last time, meaning that just two of the field were in the frame on their most recent outing. That said, all bar Mountain Peak have won at least once in the last seven, but he is winless in eleven stretching back almost two years.

His bid to snap his cold streak won't be helped by him stepping up a class, as do Isle of Lismore and Dusky Lord, whilst LTO winner Rocking Ends is up two levels. Mountain Peak last raced seven weeks ago, but all his rivals have ran at least once in the last four weeks and every one of the ten runners here have won over today's trip with Isle of Lismore, Rocking Ends and Antiphon all scoring over course and distance...

In fairnes, there's not a great deal of positivity from the win stats on Instant Expert today, but Good Earth does like the good to firm ground. From a negative perspective, it's not looking good for Thunder Moor, Woolhampton and Dusky Lord with a full line of red, whilst Squealer is 9lbs higher than his last win, so I think we'll need to check the place stats...

...which does paint a better picture, but it has to be the end of the road for Squealer (weight), Thunder Moor and Dusky Lord. Woolhampton's place stats are decent, so she earns a reprieve for now, whilst Antiphon clearly loves it here at Windsor finishing 114232212 since his first visit here on 2nd May 2022.

As you'd expect, there's no huge draw bias over a straight 5f on quick ground...

.but when it comes to our feature of the day, Pace, it's a different story with horses faring much better from both a win and a place perspective, the further forward they race...

...which makes sense really doesn't it? Hold-up horses don't have time to catch up over a fast five. Based on the field's most recent efforts, this pace bias would seem to suit Windsor-lover Antiphon better than Woolhampton...

If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

...the ideal combo is the low drawn leader and Isle of Lismore scoring 3.00 for pace above and has the no.1 stall, then that could be good news.

Summary

Isle of Lismore is in good form and has the ideal pace/draw combo to succeed here. He won a similar race over course and distance this time last year and at a generally available (as of 5.40pm Sunday) 5/1, he'd be the one for me.

Rocking Ends is only up 2lbs for a good win LTO, but the dual step up in class might be his undoing here, whilst course specialist Antiphon looks a little high in the weights. Both have great chances of making the frame but at respective odds of 4/1 and 10/3, there's nothing in them from an E/W perspective.

If I did want a longer-priced horse to outrun their odds, then the 17/2 Navello might be the one, but I wouldn't be throwing too much of your hard-earned at it!



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Racing Insights, Monday 03/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.20 Listowel
  • 2.30 Brighton
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 4.50 Listowel
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I think I'll head to the South Coast for the 2.30 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Apprentice Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground...

Top-weight (carrying 5lbs more than the others) is the fast-finisher Fai Fai and he's our only LTO winner in a field that elsewhere Broxi's win five starts ago is the only success any of these have had in their last seven outings, although My Bonnie Lassie made the frame on her last start (over course and distance, too) and has done so twice in her last four efforts.

All nine raced at this level last time around which was inside the last eight weeks for all bar Gilt Edge, who now returns from a six-month break. Muy Muy Guapo has been far from 'very very handsome' of late, having been unplaced in each of his last seven and it is hoped that first-time cheekpieces help today.

This isn't a handicap, so all bar the 5lb-penalised Fai Fai will carry 9st 9lbs here and with four of them rated at 50 and one at 49, this could be a tight contest, despite the obvious lack of quality. Of the five separated by just 1lb in the ratings, Voltaic has a 3lb claimer on board, whilst the jockeys of Kondratiev Wave and Broxi are both able to take 5lbs off, which may well have a bearing here.

All nine have raced over this trip (2 to 35 times overall) with only Broxi (7 from 35) and He's Our Star (3 from 15) managing to win with the other seven failing to score in any of 66 attempts and it's the same two horses who have won here at Brighton before as Broxi is 2 from 2 here and He's Our Star has won 3 of 16 with the others notching up 21 defeats, whilst over course and distance, Broxi is 2 from 2 and He's Our Man 2 from 3. Other relevant stats come courtesy of Instant Expert, of course...

...where Broxi is the immediate eye-catcher based on wins over the last two years, with both Fai Fai and Voltaic having commendable place records, but you probably didn't need me to spell that out. When it comes to place stats, I'm never too keen about horses 'in the red' after 5 runs or more, so by that standard My Bonnie Lassie and He's Our Star fail on class/course data, whilst Gilt Edge also fails on class and I'd be more than happy to rule them out right now, leaving me with the following in draw order...

I've got them in draw order, because I want to check with our draw analyser to see if any of these be helped or hindered by their stall position based on data gleaned from past similar races here at Brighton...

...where to be honest, I'd say that the bias wasn't that great at all, but if there is an advantage to be had it's probably more relevant for the placings rather than the wins and that those drawn lowest have the better chances. It's a different story from a pace perspective, though, where the onus is to get out quickly with our pace analyser showing that leaders/prominent runners won 51.2% (64) of those 125 races above, despite only accounting for 41.6% (452) of the 1085 runners involved...

...with a similar (but not quite as stark) difference with the places, where they took 46.9% (175) of the 373 places. When we then look back at how this field has approached their most recent races...

...I guess that Broxi might well be afforded a soft early lead and that he'll attempt to make all here.

Summary

Based on the above, it has to be Broxi for me.

Aside from Fai Fai, he brings the best form to the table and is second best off at the weights after allowances, just 1lb inferior to Kondratiev Wave. He has the best win stats on Instant Expert, backed up by good place data. He has been drawn in stall one, so he has the rail to guide him and only one direction to look out for danger, but based on the pace stats, he might not see another runner after the start and if so, it'll probably be late on.

LTO-winner Fai Fai is only two stalls away and might well get a tow into the race, which would help but he and Voltaic are the two best suited to making the frame here today anyway and it is these two that I expect to pose the biggest threat to Broxi here. If pushed to split the placers, I think I like Voltaic slightly more as he carries 8lbs less than Fai Fai, but Fai Fai is the stronger finisher : it might be tight!

As of 4.20pm on Sunday, only Bet365 had shown any odds and they went...

I can understand why Kondratiev Wave might be popular, but 3/1 seems mighty short for a horse on a twenty-one race losing streak and 7/2 about Broxi looks better value.



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Racing Insights, Monday 27/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.15 Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.05 Cartmel
  • 4.35 Redcar
  • 5.55 Leicester

The highest-rated of those races above, the 4.35 Redcar, also has a good pace spread, so we're going to focus on this 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground, that will be heavy in places...

Maghlaak has made the frame in all six career starts, winning on three occasions and is the only LTO winner in this field. Alpha Crucis was third of eight at Goodwood under similar conditions to today, but none of the others even made the frame on their last outings. All bar Machete have won at least one of their last six races, though, with the top-weight French raider on a losing run of seven.

Arthur's Realm and Bystander both step up a class here and it's a day/race full of 'firsts' as it's the first...

  • race for David O'Meara, first in the UK and first handicap race anywhere for Machete
  • time in cheekpieces for Bill Silvers
  • fitting of a tongue-tie for To Catch a Thief
  • wearing of a visor by Stressfree

All those who ran in the UK last time out raced either 10 or 23 days ago, but Machete's last run in France for Fabrice Chappet was some eight months ago and it's not inconceivable that he might need the run. He's also one of four (along with Bill Silvers, Arthur's Realm & Alpha Crucis) yet to win at today's trip, whilst the field has no previous Redcar wins. That said only Bystander and Stressfree have raced here once each!

Half of the field have decent place form on soft ground, but unusually for French imports, that's not the case for Machete and seeing as he hasn't raced for eight months, has lost his last seven since a win fourteen months ago, has no win at the trip and doesn't appear to 'get' soft ground, I'm crossing his name off here.

Also based on place form, I'm doubtful about To Catch A Thief, Bill Silvers and especially Lord Protector, so that leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10, so I should still be covered in the event of any draw bias! The in-form Maghlaak is also the main eyecatcher from Instant Expert above, but Qitaal's numbers are good as are those of bottom-weight Alpha Crucis.

I referred to a potential draw bias above, so I've checked past similar races and they say...

...and based on that data, I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias overall. The mid drawn 4 wins from 78 doesn't make a lot of sense when either side you have 10 wins and 9 wins, but I should point out that stall 1 alone has 6 wins and 2 further places from 23 runs, so that skews things a little and might be good news for Qitaal. The fact that there's not a great deal of difference in the place stats helps to bring me to the little/no bias conclusion, but I suspect that our feature of the day, PACE, will be of more help.

Here's how those 23 races above have been won...

...with prominent/leading runners clearly coming out on top, which based on this field's most recent efforts looks like even more good news for Qitaal...

Summary

The in-form Maghlaak and pace-setting Qitaal look like the most likely ones here and they were only a neck apart last time out. Qitaal is a pound better off here, but Maghlaak was running for the first time in almost a year, so both should technically go better here, which might result in another narrow defeat for Qitaal. I'm not sure how they'll finish, of course, but I suspect it will be tight again and Qitaal offers more value at 6/1* than Maghlaak at 7/2* , I suppose.

As for the final place, Bystander (9/2*) has to be considered from his pace profile, but I think Alpha Crucis might be the one, despite often being slow away. He was actually third behind Maghlaak and Qitaal 23 days ago, just 1.25 lengths off the pace and whilst Qitaal is a pound better off with Maghlaak here, Alpha Crucis is 2lbs better off with Qitaal, which could be interesting and at 13/2*, he's borderline E/W territory for me.

*odds taken from Bet365 & Hills at 5.00pm Sunday



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Racing Insights, Monday 20/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 5.06 Windsor
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 6.50 Roscommon
  • 7.40 Windsor

...so we're off to Windsor. I've opted to look at the first of the list, that 5.06 race, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio all come here off the back of LTO wins inside the last five weeks and Freds Mate won three starts ago. I Love Paris, Rakki and Malinka are yet to get off the mark after 5, 4 and 3 starts respectively.

I Love Paris and Rakki both drop in class here and that might help them here and Freds Mate has been gelded since his last run. That run was 136 days ago, so he might well need the run, but at 184 days off, Alacrity's fitness will be tested hee ,as the others have all raced in the last 37 days.

We don't have much relevant form to go off, but Caprelo won over this trip at Kempton last time out and Lucentio's win here a fortnight ago was over course and distance. Sadly this field have very little experience at this level and this is reflected in a lack of data within Instant Expert..

 

...so I'll move straight on to the draw stats, which suggest that runners in stalls 1 and 2 could be disadvantaged...

...whilst those races above have been won as follows...

...and with so many different viable options available, it could be an open contest, where I suspect Alacrity will be the early pacesetter, if his recent runs are anything to go by...

On that 'evidence', Malinka would be the back marker but be aware of horses changing how they run in the early stages of their careers.

If we now put what we know about the field into that pace-draw heatmap...

Summary

Pretty short and hopefully sweet today and I can't help but think that the 3 LTO winners, Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio will provide our first three home here, although Rakki looks good on the pace/draw heatmap.

Alacrity might need a run, Caprelo's form has all been on the A/W while Lucentio's LTO win was on soft ground, so none of the three are perfect.

Should Alacrity be race-fit, then he'd be my tentative pick at 5/1*, offering more apparent value than the 5/2* and 11/4* being offered about Caprelo and Lucentio with the latter being my preference.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 5pm Sunday



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Racing Insights, Monday 13/05/24

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.47 Catterick
  • 4.55 Roscommon
  • 5.35 Windsor
  • 5.55 Roscommon
  • 6.40 Killarney

Regular readers will know that I rarely get involved with Irish racing, which takes away three of the five races above for me, but each to their own of course! And if I'm honest, I'm not really too interested in the two UK races above either, so I'm just going to look at the highest-rated race in the UK, the 6.35 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

My initial thoughts before diving in were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad, but let's see what the data tells us...

Leap Abroad won last time out, sixteen days ago and Laoisman completed a hat-trick five weeks ago, as he returned from 195 days off the track, so he has come back fresh. We've no other LTO winners, but both Katey Kontent and Coup de Force were runners-up on their last runs, but Katey Knotent is actually the only one in this field without at least one win in their last six outings, having been beaten in all seven starts (albeit narrowly in her last two) since winning her first two starts back in May 2022.

Her cause might not be helped by a 1lb and 1 class rise here today, but she's not alone in stepping up as Laosman, Leap Abroad and Coup de Force all make the same move from Class 4, whilst bottom-weight Lady Dreamer is up two classes here. Moving down in class are top-weight Executive Decision and Dusky Lord, who drop from Class 2 action, but both might be in need of a run after breaks of 203 and 220 days respectively; this might also apply to Katey Kontent (221 days) and Coup de Force (202 days).

Aside from the four runners above who haven't raced since last October, the other half-dozen have all had at least one run since the start of April. The trip should be fine for most of these, as only Rhythm n Hooves and Katey Kontent have yet to win at this distance and both Indian Creak and Lady Dreamer have achieved the feat here at Windsor in August '23 and July '23 respectively. Katey Kontent's form over 6f is improving and reads 432, but she has won over 5f here at Windsor, back in May 2022 on what was just her second outing...

Instant Expert probably helps us put red marks against runners rather than green ticks today, as Indian Creak and to lesser extent, Coup de Force, look unsuited by the going, whilst Indian Creak's win record at Class 3 is lamentable with his 6 from 42 at the trip hardly setting the world alight. Lady Dreamer has struggled to win at this trip, too, with just one win from eight. That said, she has made the frame in four of her seven defeats...

Indian Creak still looks weak, though and whilst I'm unsure of many of these from a win perspective, you could make a case for most of them to make the frame over a track and trip that has rewarded low-drawn runners most in terms of wins, but has offered more opportunities to make the frame from those drawn highest...

...but the big thing here at Windsor is pace, which fits in nicely with today's free feature. If truth be told, the draw bias above isn't massive but if we look at how those 110+ races above were won...

...it's pretty clear what the optimum tactics would be and this means we're looking for the horses with high pace scores. For those unsure how this works (it's in the user guide better than I'll explain!) we look at every race in the UK and award a score of 4 to a horse that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for those who raced in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up horse. It's not an exact timed science, but it really does help us to see who might well set the pace.

Our field's last four runs look like this...

...with Leap Around the likely front-runner ahead of Lady Dreamer, Indian Creak and Laoisman, whilst both Kiwano and Katey Kontent arrive here on the back of three hold-up runs and if that's repeated here, they'll find it hard to win, I'd have thought.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad. After everything I've written/read, I'm still pretty keen on two of them, but I can't warm to Katey Kontent right now. She's on a losing run, but on a rising mark and up in class. She's likely to need a run after a lay-off and shouldn't be suited here from a pace perspective.

If I follow my daily processes as above, she's a definite no (watch her now romp home at 6/1!) but I'm sticking with Laoisman and Leap Abroad and I've got them in that order too.

For a third horse to make the frame, I want to be on a horse with a recent run, so not Coup de Force, Executive Decision nor Dusky Lord. Of the four remaining options, I'm inclined to side with Lady Dreamer, who has an excellent place record under today's conditions. She won her last start of 2023 and clearly needed a run last time out, she's a course and distance winner, she gets weight all round and runs off a mark lower than her last win.

No odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday afternoon, but an average of the tissues provided by Oddschecker, Timeform & Racing Post has Laoisman at 10/3, Leap Around at 4.11/1 (37/9 anyone?) and Lady Dreamer at 14.67 (44/3) respectively, so there might well be an E/W bet in the offing.



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Racing Insights, Monday 06/05/2024

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 2.35 Windsor
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 4.45 Curragh

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in either of the two UK races there, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 4.05 Kempton, which is the highest-rated UK race that I'd consider covering! It's an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over a right-handed three miles on good ground...

Neon Moon won last time out, as did top-weight Quick Draw who has four wins and a place from his last seven outings. Karl Philippe and Unanswered Prayers were both placed third on their latest runs, but both are winless in seven (or more) races, as is Killer Kane.

Half of the field ran at this Class 3 level last time out, but Galahad Quest (now running for the first-time since a wind op) and Magna Sam both drop from Class 2, whilst Our Jet ran at Grade 2 and Killer Kane ran in a Class 1 handicap.

Most of these have raced in the last two to six weeks or so, but Quick Draw and Magna Sam have both been rested for three months, but that shouldn't pose any issues here.

Quick Draw (2m4½f chase) and Our Jet (2m5f chase) are both former Kempton winners, whilst Killer Kane is two from three over fences at 3m½f here. Quick Draw has also won over a similar trip elsewhere before, as have Neon Moon and Magna Sam. Karl Philippe, Galahad Quest and Unanswered Prayers have yet to score over track or trip...

...with recent relevant form suggesting our winner might well come from Quick Draw, Karl Phillipe, Our Jet and/or Galahad Quest, whilst Neon Moon has made the frame in half of his eight efforts over this trip...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that horses prepared to set the tempo of the race from the front did best of all in similar past races...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could lead you to thinking that would suit Unanswered Prayers, Our Jet, Quick Draw, Galahad Quest and Karl Philippe...

Summary

The horse ticking most boxes for me from the above data is Quick Draw, he brings the best form to the table, his trainer and jockey are both in good nick and both have good records here at Kempton. The horse has won here before and has scored at this trip. He's 3 from 4 in this grade and does like to lead when necessary. Sadly, he's the 5/2 favourite with bet365 (at 6.40pm Sunday), but that's probably about the right price.

Elsewhere I can make cases for (alphabetically) Galahad Quest, Karl Philippe, Neon Moon and Our Jet and I'd probably suggest that Our Jet and Karl Philippe would be the better pair to chase the pick home and with Our Jet currently available at 11/1, he might be a nice E/W option.

 

 



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