Tag Archive for: pace

Racing Insights, Monday 27/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.35 Ludlow
  • 3.05 Kempton

The first is a maiden hurdle, so let's try the 3.05 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m5f on good/good to soft ground...

THELASTHIGHKING finished 211 in his last three runs of the previous season and returned to action here at Kempton five weeks ago with a great run to finish second of seven despite being raised 5lbs and being off for 193 days. He could well strip fitter for the run, but does step up in trip and is up another 5lbs.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT hasn't won any of his eleven races over the last two years since winning by a short head at Ascot on November 2021 and was beaten by 39 lengths as 9th of 11 at Cheltenham last month, but does drop a class here.

GLOIRE D'ATHON has made the frame in 6 of 10 efforts over fences (5 wins) and his results in the 16 months from April '22 read 22111211, but was pulled up at Newbury earlier this month on his return from a 4-month break.

OUR JET looks like the first pick of the two Dan Skelton runners in the field and he was 3rd of 10 at Newbury earlier this month when returning from almost seven months off the track (had a wind op in that time). He was well beaten that day, though, coming home some 32 lengrths behind the winner of a well strung-out field. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time and could be of interest off this mark.

MULLINAREE makes a chase debut here 45 days after contesting a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, where he was 5th of 7. Prior to that run, his career had been revitalised by wearing a hood and tongue tie during five successive wins over 2m3½f to 2m5½f on ground ranging from good to heavy, so going and trip shouldn't be his downfall here, but will he take to the bigger obstacles?

AMOOLA GOLD is the second of the Skelton duo and he receives weight all round. He's the sole LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three, albeit both over hurdles wither side of finishing last of six (beaten by 58L) over fences at Haydock in March. His last chase win was a Listed contest at Ascot, but it was over two years ago and his form over fences since then reads 2643847736.

Instant Expert says that all five to have raced over fences have won at least once on good or good to soft ground and four of them have won at Class 3. Only three have been chasing at Kempton before and they're a collective 0 from 4, whilst Gloire D'Athon seems best suited to the trip...

Before Midnight has poor win records at both Class & trip, whilst Amoola Gold has a similar record over the distance. On base stats alone, Gloire D'Athon looks of interest. He normally runs in mid-division or slightly further forward, according to his last four outings and if all six run as they have been doing of late, he's likely to take third rank early doors...

...with chase debutant Mullinaree and Skelton second-stringer Amoola Gola the more likely front-runners. Should Gloire D'Athon want to make the frame or even go on to win, then his prominent running style might just bear fruit if this track/trip's results are anything to go by...

Summary

The Lasthighking is probably the best horse in the race and if he comes on for having had the run and reverts back to front-running like he did two starts ago, he'll be very difficult to beat. He is, however, as low as 13/8 and only as high as 15/8 and there's no guarantees that he won't be held up and he is up another 5lbs here, so whilst he's probably the one to beat, there's no value on the price.

Our Jet could go well if not left with too much to dao, but this isn't really a race I want to bet heavily on and I think for interest, I'll have a small E/W wager on Gloire D'Athon to outrun bet365's 16/1 price ticket. He'd not be an obvious winner, but his suitability for the test says he's too big at 16's.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.30 Plumpton
  • 3.20 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Kempton
  • 6.00 Kempton

The 'best' of those races would appear to be the 3.20 Plumpton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

NO RISK WITH LOU won on his hurdles debut a year ago and then also won on his chase debut at Huntingdon last time out, making virtually all on his way to a 7-lengfth success five weeks ago. Up 8lbs for the win, but should go well again.

RED WINDSOR made the frame in three (won once) of his five hurdles outings, but looked like he needed the run when last of 4 (85 lengths adrift) on chasing debut six weeks ago. He jumped well enough but just seemed to run out of steam.

GITCHE GUMEE won a bumper on debut in March '22 and then won next time out on hurdles debut some seven months later. Aside from a fall at Southwell two starts ago, has hurdled well in five subsequent runs and now makes a chasing & handicap debut seven months after his last outing.

KOTMASK started his career with back to back wins over hurdles (one at Class 2) and last season's hurdle form read 4322. Made a chasing debut at Kempton four weeks ago and defied a seven month layoff to finish third, beaten by less than seven lengths and should improve for the experience and for having had a run.

BONARC has yet to make the frame in five efforts over fences and has lost his last ten races in total since a win at Kilbeggan 18 months ago. His last run run saw him finish last of four at Sligo, some 47 lengths adrift and others look better placed here.

AVILES has been a runner-up in all five UK starts to date, including today (Sunday) at Fontwell, which puts his participation here in doubt, but having only gone down by a nose on chasing debut today, could be dangerous off a lowly mark of just 104.

All bar Aviles (obviously) and Red Windsor have scored over this type of trip in the UK, but we've no former course winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Bonarc might well be all at sea on the going and at this grade, whilst his record at the trip is no better, so I'm happy to rule him out of contention right away. Elsewhere, we've admittedly not much data to work with, but Kotmask does at least seem like he'll relish the softness of the turf and that thought is backed up by his place data...

...which also highlights Aviles' continued door-knocking.

Pace is Monday's free feature and a quick click of the PACE tab for this race brings us to a screen like this...

...which suggests that Red Windsor will set the pace and Bonarc will be held up and if we consult our Pace Analyser for similar past races...

...we see that those racing further forward fare best, but leaders find themselves prone to being picked up by the stalking prominent runner late on. This looks better news for Aviles & No Risk With Lou than the others.

Summary

I don't like Bonarc at all, Gitche Gumme makes a handicap/chasing debut after a long layoff and pace-setter Red Windsor has a tendency to fade late on, so I'm against these three.

No Risk With Lou was very impressive on chase debut last time out and there's probably more to come from him, he fits the pace profile well and should put a decent effort in here, even if Instant Expert is against him. Kotmask was the pick on Instant Expert and was in good hurdling form last season. He has had the benefit of a recent pipe-opener over fences and should go well again, but the pace stats are against him, whilst Aviles is ultra-consistent (five runner-up finishes on the bonce) but always finds one too good for him.

None of the trip are a shoo-in, but 9/4 fav No Risk With Lou probably shades it based on his winning run last time out with little to separate the other pair, providing Aviles runs, that is.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/11/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.20 Hereford
  • 3.30 Kempton
  • 4.07 Plumpton
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

The Kempton contest is a Listed race, but only four runners are set to go to post, so 'next best' of those races above is the 3.07 Plumpton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground...

Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain all won last time out and the latter comes here on a hat-trick having been in great form last season, winning his last two, three from five and four from seven. Shanty Alley is the only one without a win in the recent formline, having suffered eleven consecutive defeats. He has made the frame in five of those defeats (inc 4 x runner-up), but has also failed to finish five of them (1 x UR and 4 xPU)!

Lots of class movement here, as only I See You Well, Ballinsker, Wake Up Early and Midnight Mary ran at Class 3 last time around. Up The Straight and Dom of Mary both drop down from Class 2, but the other seven runners all step up a class here with Kayf Hernando running for the first time since wind surgery and Sublime Heights wears a first-time tongue tie.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Island Run, Wake Up Early, Blade Runner, Sublime Heights and Up The Straight) have had the benefit of a run in the last 13-31 days, but their seven rivals have been off the track for five to seven months, which might be a disadvantage here.

Up The Straight and Ballinsker have both won 2mf chases here at Plumpton, whilst Wouldubewell, Shanty Alley and Midnight Mary have won over similar trips to today at other tracks. I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner are course and distance winners, but Kayf Hernando, Dom of Mary, Wake Up Early and Island Run have won at neither track nor trip, as demonstrated by Instant Expert below...

...where the highlights include Tip Top Mountain's 2 from 3 on good to soft, his 2 from 3 at Plumpton and his 2 from 2 at the trip. I See You Well (5/9), Blade Runner (3/4) and Sublime Heights (3/5) have good records here, whilst those liking this trip include Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner all with multiple wins and a strike rate og 50% or higher.

The place stats look like this...

...and after removing any horse with any amber or red boxes, I'd suggest these were the ones best suited/more likely to 'get' the conditions...

Past similar 10+ runner races here at Plumpton have favoured horses held up for a run...

...but we don't have that many in this field, according to the Pace tab, which shows us how this field have approached their last four outings...

...but I'd expect the bottom trio to be close to the back of the pack.

Summary

I think that Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Blade Runner and Island Run are going to be best suited by conditions, but I'm going discount Sublime Heights from that list, due to long losing run and the fact that he's unreliable.

Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain are the two bringing the best set of recent results to the table and although I think I like the latter more than the former, he might well need the run after 197 days off, whilst the former raced just 24 days ago. With that in mind, I'd be inclined to suggest Blade Runner as the winner here, but his current odds of 4/1 fav aren't particularly generous/attractive, but I'd be happy with 10/1 E/W from Bet365 about Tip Top Mountain.

I'd also expect the 6/1 pair Kayf Hernando & Island Run to be in the shake-up.

Racing Insights, Monday 30/10/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.15 Huntingdon
  • 1.25 Leicester
  • 1.45 Galway
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 4.20 Leicester

...and the 'best' on paper of the trio of UK races above, looks like being the middle one, the 3.35 Huntingdon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

General Medrano and In The Air both won last time out and Rose Sea Has and Generous Day were both runners-up, although both have won one of their last five, whilst Sea Prince and Out On The Tear are winless in five and six respectively.

None of these ran at this grade last time out with all bar Sea Prince (who drops down from Class 2) stepping up a class from Class 4. There's no new headgear on show and no horses have moved yards recently. General Medrano and Rose Sea Has both have the benefit of a run three weeks ago, finishing 1st and 2nd nine lengths apart at Uttoxeter. Sea Prince ran two months ago, but the other three have all been off the track for over five months.

Relevant NH & specific chase form is highlighted via Instant Expert...

Despite, there being a fair bit of red on the going column, most of these do have some form on good to soft. Rose Sea Has appears to have struggled at Class 3, but all do have some wins/places at similar trips to this one. If we drill down to just chase form...

...we obviously have less data to work with and Rose Sea Has' Class 3 form is repeated here, but he'll be fine on good to soft ground. Out On The Tear is well suited by the trip, especially from a place perspective.

Monday's free feature is the PACE tab and our pace analyser tool says that horses who lead in small field, short distance Huntingdon chases are the ones to be with...

and by clicking the PACE tab, we can see how these horses have raced in their last four outings...

...it looks like the pace is going to come from Rose Sea Has, Generous Day and Sea Prince.

Summary

The odds on favourite General Medrano looks like being the horse to beat based on the way he comfortably won on his chasing debut three weeks ago, beating Rose Sea Has by nine lengths. The latter is now 9lbs better off with the winner and a similar run from him could get him closer this time.

The only other one with a relatively recent run is Sea Prince and although he drops in class here, he hasn't been in the best of form and I'm wary of backing the other trio who might well need the run.

General Medrano may well be the one to beat, but odds of 10/11 don't float my boat as my pockets aren't deep enough to make a bet worthwhile, so if I was to have a bet here, it'd be a small E/W play on Rose Sea Has, who trades at 15/2 in the very early market.

Racing Insights, Monday 23/10/23

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It was a good end to the week with the 11/2 Vintage Clarets winning for us at Catterick and with our E/W pick Glorious Angel finishing second, I'm glad a few of you got on. Those who also followed my suggestion that Count D'Orsay could also make the frame were rewarded with a 3rd place run at 16/1. Thanks to all of you who emailed to say that like me, you backed all three and had a nice payout. The tricast was a huge 700/1, but sadly I wasn't on that!

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.00 Pontefract
  • 2.55 Windsor
  • 5.15 Plumpton
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 6.40 Wolverhampton

...from which we're staying on the Flat where we've racing's extremes in terms of going and trip for the 2.55 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Our sole LTO winner Spoof has won 3 of his last 8, Korker won two starts ago, Chipstead won six ago and Executive Decision is two from four, but unplaced in her last two. Navello also failed to place in his last two, but is two from five, whilst Woolhampton has placed but not won in each of her last three, but did win six races ago. Crimson Sand has been a runner-up in three of seven but hasn't won in 13, whilst bottom weight Punchbowl Flyer brings the worst form to the table, having failed to make the frame in his last 17 races since winning at Windsor way back in June 2021!

Punchbowl Flyer's seemingly lost cause won't be helped by having to step up a class here as does LTO winner Spoof, nor will a two class rise help Crimson Sand's prospects, but the top two in the weights, the in-form Korker and Chipstead, both drop down from Listed class, where they were second (beaten by a neck) and fifth (3L) behind Emaraaty Ana at Ascot sixteen days ago in a race I covered here. So, they both ran 16 days ago and all bar Navello (44 days) and Crimson Sand (189 days) of this field have been in action this month; the latter might well need the run and is probably another nail in the coffin for his chances.

All bar Executive Decision and Punchbowl Flyer have already won over today's trip, but the latter's three wins from 4 over 6f on this track make him, just one of two course winners alongside Spoof who has three wins and three places from nine efforts over course and distance and those course wins are highlighted in Instant Expert...

...where he certainly looks the one to beat, although class-dropping Chipstead has good numbers too. Punchbowl Flyer looks interesting on that graphic, especially off a mark 22lbs below his last win, but as I pointed out earlier, that win was in June 2021 and he hasn't even made the frame in 17 races since. Speaking of making the frame, here's the place data from those races above...

...which pushes the place claims of Chipstead even more. Woolhampton is an interesting sort with a terrible win record across the board under today's conditions, but a regular placer, She has only won one of seventeen on the Flat, but has made the frame on eight occasions. There's no reason to suggest she can't place again here, but I'm wary of backing 1 in 17 types to go on to win. She is drawn lowest of all in stall 1, though and based on past races here at Windsor, that represents her best chances of success today...

...although I wouldn't ever rule any horse out of it based purely on the draw over a straight run. You'll notice that I've had to make some logical tweaks to the parameters above in order to get myself a workable sample size, so we do need to take the data with an element of trust, but if we proceed as it stands, the lower draw looks favourable. That said, it's a straight five and I'm convinced that feature of the day, PACE, should take centre stage, so let's see how those nearly 100 races were won...

...and that's pretty conclusive to me. You need to get out quick and stay out, coming from off the pace is tricky here at Windsor, especially in tricky conditions and the above data is verified by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at how this field have approached their last few outings and overlay this data onto the heat map, we get something like this...

...which sadly displays a distinct lack of early pace. However only Spoof has avoided being a hold-up horse of late and Chipstead and Crimson Sand were both prominent last time out.

Summary

Spoof is the course (course & distance specialist) and doesn't tend to be held up, so he's in the frame here. I also think that he's one of the better horses here. Chipstead is interesting from a place perspective and has scored well through my analysis, but doesn't win here in my eyes, as he's held by Korker from last time, which puts Korker on my possibles list too!

I actually prefer Korker to Spoof in terms of quality and the assessor rates him as 9lbs better too, but he's carrying 9-9 on heavy ground, has never run on heavy before and if he's coming from off the pace, it could be tough. I'd rather Korker beat Spoof, but I fear they'll finish the other way around. Either way, I agree with the early market that these two are the ones to beat at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively. Spoof is the course and distance specialist and is proven on heavy ground. he won last time out and he's my marginal pick at 3's today. (I think!)

Eleswhere, Chipstead is only 5/1, so I won't be going E/W there and with only Navello (9/1), Punchbowl Flyer (22/1) and Crimson Sand (28/1) longer than 6/1, there's not much scope for an E/W option for me. Navello would be the one, but I think I'd be wanting at least 12 to 14's if not bigger!

Racing Insights, Monday 16/10/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.45 Windsor
  • 3.50 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Musselburgh
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

The highest rated of the UK races above also has an interesting pace profile, so that's where I'm headed. The race itself is the 4.10 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good/good to soft ground. The card looks like this...

...whilst the average pace profile of the runners based on their last four outings suggests that Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 might well set the tempo of the contest...

The latter of that pair is the only LTO winner in the field, having finally got her nose in front after three successive runner-up finishes. She'd actually made the frame in seven of eight races before that resounding six length victory at Carlisle a month ago, making her the form horse in the pack. Elsewhere, only Glorious Angel and Rock Melody are winless in seven or more, whilst Sibyl Charm is a five-race maiden.

That said, it won't be as easy for Mubhijah here, as she's up two classes here, whilst Shades of Summer, Mersea and Lady Mojito all step up one level. Conversely, the top two in the weights, Kitai and Glorious Angel both drop down a class and bottom weight Biplane is down two classes after running in a Listed event at Redcar nine days ago. That gap from her last race is the same as Mersea's nine-day break and they're the two turned back out quickest.

Most of the field have, in fairness, raced in the last month or so, but Lady Mojito has been off for two months and Sibyl Charm hasn't raced for almost fifteen weeks, during which she has moved from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard and now makes a debut for Iain Jardine, whilst Rock Melody wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Sibyl Charm is, of course, still a maiden so obviously has no wins at neither trip nor track and Kitai, Mubhijah and Mersea have also yet to win over this distance, whilst Rock Melody is the sole previous Musselburgh winner, having raced here five times already, all over 5f, finishing 43112.

Whilst this is a 3yo+ race, only three of the field (Shades of Summer, Rock Melody & Biplane) are actually older than three and as a result are 2lbs worse off at the weights, due to the 3yo weight for age allowance afforded to the other half dozen.

Instant Expert says that none of these are perfect standout candidates, but that Kitai might well enjoy the expected conditions...

...although she is 5lbs higher than her last win. Glorious Angel seems to have struggled to win on similar going with a similar story for Rock Melody on both Class and trip, whilst the place data for the field looks like this...

...where I still have concerns about both Glorious Angel and Rock Melody over today's trip. The former is expected to be one of the pacemakers according tot he average pace profile I posted earlier and she's drawn low here in stall 2, but I don't expect her draw to give her any advantage or disadvantage, based on how over 100 past similar contests have gone...

...which leads us back to where we started and the daily feature, the Pace tab. I showed you that the average pace profile over four races for this field looked like this...

...and that prediction is based on the following...

...and those individual races suggest that both Lady Mojito and Sibyl Charm might actually race a little further back than their average indicated, giving the top two on the chart an almost free run early on, so let's check how those 100+ races (that we used for the draw stats) above have gone re: pace...

...and that's pretty clear, isn't it?

Summary

Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 look like being handed a soft early opportunity to dictate events from the front and the latter is definitely the form horse irrespective of a two-step up in class and Mubhijah would be my one to beat here. I'm not surprised that she's the early 5/2 favourite. That price isn't particularly generous, but it's probably about right, all things considered.

Glorious Angel should be able to hang on for a place, but at 11/2 isn't the kind of price I place E/W bets at, but I expect her to be in the mix. Elsewhere I like the look of Kitai and Mersea and with them being priced up at 4/1 and 9/1 with Hills, the latter would be the one I'd consider for a small E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Monday 25/09/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.30 Warwick
  • 3.00 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Warwick
  • 3.55 Roscommon
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most variation in runner pace profiles in the 3.05 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Glajou won last time out and has a win and two places from his last three starts, as does Gold Link, whilst Are U Wise To That has won two of four, finishing third in his other two starts and runs in a handicap for only the second time. Romanor has lost nine on the bounce, whilst Kadex is a seven-race (placed just once, pulled up three times) maiden.

Are U Wise To That and Notnowlinda have both won at this venue before, but like Haas Boy, Feuille de Lune and Kadex (obviously) have yet to win at a similar trip to this one. These stats are highlighted in Instant Expert, of course...

...where we start with all NH form. Form horses Glajou & Gold Link haven't really fared too well at this going or class and Haas Boy also has a poor record at Class 4, as does Romanor, who is 0/10 at this trip. At present the top of the card looks the place to be, so let's have a quick look at the place stats...

This is an altogether better picture and Gold Link seems to have redeemed himself. I would, however, rule Romanor out at this stage as we move solely to chase form, where only four runners have any data...

...with Blaze A Trail the pick of the bunch. Romanor's numbers are better over fences, but I'd rather back a debutant than back him!

With regards to feature of the day, PACE, similar past races here at Warwick have been won as follows...

...where leaders have tended to struggle. We log the running style of every runner and this is how this field have approached their last four outings...

Blaze A Trail, Stan's The Man and Feuille de Lune look like the ones most likely to set the pace here and I think that will be to the detriment of their chances, even if two already have decent chase records. Those held up for a run have done well here and form horse Glajou is expected to sit and bide his time, as he did over a similar trip at Worcester a fortnight ago, hitting the front four fences out and pulling away to a 12 length victory, without really exerting himself.

Summary

Based on form, the manner of his last win, his liking for this trip and the fact he's a hold-up sort, Glajou is the one to beat here for me and I expect Gold Link to be on the premises too. This pair are currently 3/1 and 7/1 and the latter might well make a decent E/W bet.

Elsewhere Are U Wise To That is of interest if he takes to the larger obstacles, whilst of those with chasing experience, Blaze A Trail might well outrun his 12/1 price ticket. The early pace might put paid to his chances of winning, but he's certainly capable of holding on for a place, especially if you get on with Skybet who pay four places.

Racing Insights, Monday 11/09/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.55 Galway
  • 4.30 Galway
  • 5.00 Newton Abbot

I don't particularly like either of the two UK races above, so I'll be taking a look at the day's highest rated race, the sole Class 2 contest in the UK, the 4.25 Newton Abbot. This is an 8-runner handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older and the trip is a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Go Chique was a winner last time out (and is 2 from 5) and Slate Lane comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning both his UK starts despite showing little in Ireland. Mr Yeats has been the runner-up in each of his last four, whilst Tommie Beau has won two from four. Sammylou looks weak on the back of six straight losses.

Only Mr Yeats (now visored for the first time) and Valentino ran in this grade last time, although the latter hasn't raced for ten months with Tommie Beau and Hunting Percival both now stepping up a level. Go Chique, Presenting Yeats and Sammylou are all up two classes, whilst Slate Lane's win at Bangor last month was at Class 5, although he did win at Class 4 two starts ago. This will be his second effort in handicap company after winning on debut at Bangorand he's up in trip and weight here.

Aside from Valentino's ten month absence, the field have all raced in the last five weeks or so and Slate Lane is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one. Mr Yeats, Valentino and Presenting Yeats and Sammylou have all won over this type of trip here at Newton Abbot already, whilst Tommie Beau has won a 3m2f chase here as recently as the end of May.

Much of the above and more is covered by Instant Expert, of course...

...where the win stats show Tommie Beau in the best light, whilst Presenting Yeats looks weakest. We can't however ignore the fact that the latter is now rated 16lbs higher than his last hurdle win, but in his defence, that was back in May 2022 and he's been chasing mainly since then and did win over fences off 127 in June! Slate Lane and Mr Yeats are also both considerably higher in the weights than their last hurdles successes. Aside from Presenting Yeats generally weak stats, there aren't too many negatives on those win percentages and if you're an E/W or place punter, the place data suggests Mr Yeats might well be of interest to you...

Today's free feature is the pace element of the racecard and this shows how the field have approached their most recent outings. They are awarded a score of 4 if they led, 3 for a prominent position, 2 for racing in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up run and this group's most recent efforts look like this...

...with top weight and sole mare, Go Chique expected to set the pace with Sammylou a confirmed hold-up type. Presenting Yeats' pace stats are a little misleading though. He has a 4 from LTO, but 3 x 1's before that, so let me briefly explain that he is a front-runner, but is often reluctant to race. So, if he gets away with the others (which he doesn't often enough), he'll probably head the filed early, but the stats suggest he'll miss the break and be slow away, which according to our Pace Analyser could be the end of his chances here...

Summary

My shortlist for the contest doesn't totally tie in with the early market, but that doesn't worry too much, they can't be right all the time!

If I was to split the field in half, I'd want to be siding with (in alphabetical order) Go Chique, Mr Yeats, Slate Lane and Tommie Beau and this quartet are currently (3.20pm on Sunday!) priced at 11/1, 8/1, 4/9 fav and 18/1 respectively and based on his last two runs, Slate Lane is probably the one to beat.

He is however, up in trip by 3f, up three classes and up 10lbs and that doesn't scream 4/9 fav to me, especially when the next in the market is 8/1! I'm not saying he can't/won't win, but I can't be backing him at those odds.

I am, however interested in the other three and I think their prices offer us a good chance of some E/W success with Tommie Beau in particular looking overpriced.

Racing Insights, Monday 28/08/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.00 Southwell
  • 2.05 Downpatrick
  • 2.30 Epsom
  • 2.50 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.15 Epsom

And of the four UK races above, the highest-rated handicap also has the widest variance in pace profiles, so let's have a quick look at the 4.15 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a -handed 1m2f on good ground...

None of these managed to win on their last outings, but Zhang Fei, Ribal and Oh So Grand were placed and the latter had won two on the bounce before that run, whilst only God Of Fire and Flight of Angels are the others to have won at least once in their last five efforts.

Zhang Fei, Ribal, Oh So Grand, Light Up Stars and Giovanni Baglione all step up a class here, but Flight of Angels drops down from Class 3 for a race which sees God Of Fire wear a tongue tie for the first time and Ribal wears first-time cheekpieces. Zhang Fei is hooded for his yard debut for John Gallagher.

This will be Oh So Grand's second run in a handicap and he's one of just three (along with Light Up Our Stars and Flight of Angels) to have won at this trip already, with Light Up, Our Stars the sole previous course winner, courtesy of a course and distance success almost 14 months ago.

This field's lack of course/distance success is, of course, shown up in Instant Expert...

...which hardly sets the pulse racing!

Udaberri and Light Up Our Stars look weak in this grade and although a course and distance winner, the latter's record at this trip leaves a bit to be desired. Elsewhere, there's little to help me here, I just hope the place stats are better!

Thankfully, they are! My general rule of thumb with relying on place form is to eliminate any runner that has no green for the going/class/course distance columns, so I'm just going to focus on these runners going forward...

Having discarded runners in stalls 5, 6 & 8, I'm hoping that our draw analyser is going to tell me that a low draw is favoured here...

...and whilst it's not a huge bias, it does seem the lower draws win more often and the PRB3 scores would be against the higher drawn runners...

That said, having the better draw over a trip of 1m2f isn't the be all and end all and much will, of course, depend on how the runners use their starting position and those races above have, according to our pace analyser, tended to suit runners racing prominently stalking the leader(s)...

...which based on their recent efforts would seem to suit Ribal and possibly Zhang Fei if Flight Of Angels and Oh So Grand decide to take it on early...

Of course, Oh So Grand might sit just off the leader like he did last time out, which could well be the best play here and our pace/draw heat map suggests the four runners mentioned are best positioned...

Summary

The four at the top end of that pace/draw heatmap are the ones I want to focus on here and I think it's a 2-way battle between Ribal and Oh So Grand here. Both are in decent form, both get a 7lb weight allowance as three year olds and both are drawn relatively low. Both are priced at around the 3/1 mark and if pushed, I'd take the filly Oh So Grand over Ribal, based on her two recent victories.

As for the placer, the 9/1 Zhang Fei could well be dangerous if tuned up for his yard debut, but the 132-day absence is a bit of a nagging concern, so it might be safer to side with the equally 9/1 priced Flight of Angels who had been in good form over this kind of trip prior to stepping up to 1m4f last time out. She weakened late on that day at Salisbury, but should go well on the front end (Joe Fanning is excellent at reading the pace of a race) back down in trip.

Racing Insights, Monday 14/08/23

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Sorry for the extremely late edition today, I'm up at my caravan near the Lakes and we've had power issues during Sunday and this morning, so I've been trying to put something together without much success. The power is now (10.00am) is currently back on, but we don't know for how long, so I'm going to have to be quick!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 6.10 Hamilton
  • 7.30 Windsor
  • 7.50 Ballinrobe
  • 8.20 Ballinrobe

The second of the two UK free races looks marginally better than the other, but it's not a great race that awaits us in the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f  around the figure of eight on good/good to firm ground...

Portoro won last time out and Goblet of Fire seeks to complete a hat-trick today. Fullforward has won just once in fifteen starts with three further places, whilst the other four runners are winless in a combined twenty races, where they have made the frame on just two occasions between them!

Twoforthegutter, Irezumi, Amma Aurelia and Anticipating all take a drop in class here with the latter pair both making a handicap debut three weeks after their last outing when well beaten in the same 1m2f maiden contest here at Windsor.

Portoro won on handicap debut (1m2f, Salisbury) last time out a month ago and now has a second handicap run, but the first iuting for his new yard. Goblet of Fire has been off the track the longest, but he last ran 33 days ago, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues around.

None of the group have won at either track nor distance, although Anna Aureila did make the frame in one of her three runs here (all her three career runs have been here!). The handicapper only rates this field with a 5lb spread from top to bottom and here are the (scarce) Instant Expert stats...

Not much to go on admittedly, but another tick for hat-trick seeking Goblet of Fire with Portoro also of interest, but he'll find it tougher here raised 13lbs for a 9 length win on handicap debut. Elsewhere not much to talk about, but Fullforward has made the frame in 3 of 7 over a similar trip, but is still 5lbs higher than his sole win nine races and ten months ago, but he was second at Lingfield last time out off today's mark. No Diggity was fourth, 2.5 lengths further back, that day and he was a winner over 1m4f at Brighton last Thursday.

Over a trip this long with both left and right handed bends, the draw really shouldn't be a factor here and although at first glance, the stats would suggest low draws fare badly here...

...that data is somewhat skewed by an inexplicably poor set of results from stall 1, which is where Irezumi will now find himself after the two withdrawals, but I doubt that's likely to make or break his race, whereas the pace might!

Pace/tempo is massively important here at Windsor, as this track tends to suit those willing to get on with things early and those 110+ races are no exception...

That data says you can make the frame from anywhere, but for a better chance of leading you need to be prominent or leading, which is a positive for Fullforward, based on how the field have approached their last few outings...

Summary

I think the two LTO winners, Goblet of Fire and Portoro are the best two horses here and bring the best form to the table. Their rivals bring no winning form with them and I see little reason why one of them would be the winner here. Of the two 'form' horses, Goblet of Fire is in the better form and has a better pace profile. He's 'only' up 6lbs for his win with Portoro up almost a stone, so it's Goblet of Fire for me.

We're not getting rich at 11/4, but it seems a fair price to me for a runner who looks best suited. Portoro might be undone by the pace and with most firms still paying three places, the front-running Fastforward might be a viable E/W option at 8/1, especially if he's afforded a soft lead.

Apologies again for the late posting, hopefully it was worth the wait!

Racing Insights, Monday 07/08/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.33 Cork
  • 4.53 Cork
  • 5.20 Ayr
  • 5.28 Cork
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the two UK races above, I suspect the last race on the list will depend more on pace than the other and with tricky underfoot conditions expected, the 7.30 Windsor might well be an interesting contest. It's a 15-runner (more than I'm generally comfortable with!), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over straight 6f on heavy ground...

As there are far more runners than I want to deal with, I'm going to be quite brutal and quickly eliminate runners, based initially on PACE and the INSTANT EXPERT data, as this is how heavy groiund races at Windsor at 5f to 7f have panned out...

.with our field's last four runs looking like this...

Their soft to heavy ground handicap stats look like this...

And whilst I'm aware of the obvious risk of overlooking a possible bet, I'm not even considering those with two or more hold-up runs in their last four outings and I'm removing Cuban Breeze for his soft/heavy ground form, making my new racecard look like this...

Lequinto, Indian Creak and Count Otto all won last time out with the latter coming here on a hat-trick, but Antiphon and Crazy Luck are both on losing runs of 6 and 9 races.

All bar Lethal Nymph and Sterling Knight are stepping up in class with Lequinto, Count Otto and The Cruising Lord up two classes with Lequinto wearing first time blinkers.

All nine have won over today's trip before with all bar Lethal Nymph, Crazy Luck and The Cruising Lord having scored over course and distance. We've no 3 yr olds here, so no age-related weight allowances to consider and all of them have raced in the last six weeks with Sterling Knight having rested for just two days and Crazy Luck for six.

Instant Expert says...

...that Count Otto might well struggle at Class 2 and hasn't fared particularly well here at Windsor and that he and The Cruising Lord look the weakest on the above stats. And as it's my aim to quickly decimate the field into a small number of possible E/W bets, I'm removing both from my calculations now. This still leaves me with seven runners strung across the track in stalls, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14 and over a straight 6f, you'd be forgiven for think that there shouldn't be much advantage to the draw, but it's not quite the case here as those drawn 6 and above do seem to have better results...

...which isn't particularly good news for Lequinto, Lethal Nymph and/or Antiphon, but their fate might not yet be sealed, they might still be in with a shout as we revisit the pace data from those 5-6f Windsor races used for the draw stats...

...where we're looking for those with the highest average pace score from this bunch...

Anything below 2.75 probably isn't going to be advanced enough here, especially when I've already discarded this trio...

...so it's goodbye to Lequinto and Crazy Luck here.

Summary

I have very quickly reduced the field to four runners that I may (or may not) now fancy to back win or E/W for the four places available from the bookies, of whom only Hills had prices when I wrote the piece.

Antiphon is possibly better than the 16/1 ticket might suggest. he won here over 5f on soft ground in May off today's mark and was a runner-up over course and distance six weeks ago off the same mark and now has a 7lb claimer on board. Could well make the frame here.

Lethal Nymph was a runner-up over course and distance here last time out and has finished 112 in his last three runs at Class 2. he's unproven/untested on anything softer than good to soft, so there's an elemEnt of trust involved if you want to back him at 17/2. If he takes to the heavy ground, he'd be a good E/W chance too, but I think I'd want a bigger price on a horse trying these conditions for a first time.

Indian Creak won here over course and distance on soft ground back in May and won well at Epsom last time out, but is only raised a pound for that run. He made the frame on heavy ground at Thirsk in the race follOwing his C&D success and could go well again here. I do like his chances of a top four finish and whilst not exactly generous, 17/2 isn't a bad price.

Haymaker is probably the one I like best of the four. A central draw gives him the scope to go with whoever sets the pace, the underfoot conditions shouldn't bother him and he's got a top jockey on board. He's the current 11/2 favourite which looks a little mean/short, but if pushed to pick a winner, he'd be the one. Ideally he'd drift from that price and I could back him E/W.

Racing Insights, Monday 24/07/23

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Sorry for being later than usual this evening, I've spent much of my weekend helping my travel clients affected by the terrible fires on Rhodes (yes, I'm a travel agent away from the racing, so if you need a holiday, I'm your man!), but I'm back with you all now with a preview for Monday.

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 6.10 Ballinrobe
  • 7.30 Beverley
  • 8.20 Windsor
  • 8.30 Beverley

Of the three UK free races, the first seems to have biggest spread of pace based on the field's last four runs, as this is how the runners in the 7.30 Beverley have approached their most recent contests...

The race itself is a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-hand 7½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and here's how they'll line up...

Revoquable won here over course and distance last time out, albeit on good to firm ground, but it does mean that he's the only one coming here off the back of a win. Stoney Lane has also won here over course and distance, whilst How Bizarre has won over 1m½f on this track. None of the other have won at either trip nor track.

All Dunn makes a yard debut for Harriet Bethell less than a fortnight after a good runner-up finish at Wolverhampton on his final run for Jamie Osborne and aside from Revoquable's win LTO, he's the only one to have made the frame last time around, but Ey Up It's Jazz has won two from three and How Bizarre won two starts ago.

Floats On Air might need the run after a break of almost four months and all of his rivals here have raced in the last 24 days with Ey Up It's Jazz have had just a week's rest. These are all confirmed Class 6 runners and none raced at a higher level last time.

Instant Expert paints a typical Class 6 picture of very few wins, but one of them has won on soft/heavy ground already and all bar two have won at Class 6. If you change the parameters on Instant Expert, you'll find that How Bizarre has won at Class 4 and Class 5, whilst Bold Territories and Stoney Lane are also former Class 5 winners...

Ey Up It's Jazz is the clear eye-catcher, but with really poor win figures for most of the field (anything in red from 10+ races is poor), I thin we're going to need some help from the place stats...

...which still aren't brilliant, but do suggest that some of these might well have enough in their lockers to make the frame. Sadly, I'm underwhelmed by the numbers for Floats On Air and/or Congress, so they're out of the picture for me, as I go and look to see if the draw might have an effect on the outcome here...

...but there doesn't seem to be much in it. The PRB3 figures pretty much say the same, but do suggest that the lower you're drawn, the slightly better chance you seem to have...

It's not a huge bias, but ignoring the clear anomaly that is stall 8, the PRB3 figure for stall 1 (0.54) is 108% that of stalls 6 & 7 (0.50), so there's a slight advantage there, which could be good for Revoquable & All Dunn in the two lowest stalls. And now back to where we started, our daily free feature, the PACE. We know from the top of the page that the runners have approached their most recent contests like this...

...and if we look at how those Beverley races we used for the draw stats have panned out...

...you'd probably want to focus on those with an average pace score of at least 2.50, although I'm interested in Revoquable's last two runs, where he raced prominently leading to a course and distance win last time out, suggesting he'll race that way again here. Bold Territories misses the cut here.

Summary

I've disregarded three already, leaving me with six to consider, from which I think Revoquable is the one to beat. He's drawn well, won over C&D recently and should race prominently, he has made the frame in tricky conditions before and I think he'll make it back-to back wins here. We're not getting rich at the 10pm price of 3/1, but it's probably a fair price.

All Dunn is the 5/2 fav and whilst I do like his chances here, that's too short for me, but he should be there or thereabouts. The one I do like from an E/W perspective is the 11/1 How Bizarre, he has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three outings, has won at both Class 4 and Class 5, has a consistent record at making the frame under these conditions and will be the likely front runner here. As long as only two pass him, we'll be fine!

Racing Insights, Monday 17/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.35 Ayr
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

I don't really do Irish racing, as most of you know and the Ayr race is a 7-runner novice event where the field of 2 yr olds have a total of ten races between them. This hardly builds up a reliable pace profile, so we're off to the 8.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

The indications from Bet365 at 6pm Sunday were that it was a three-horse race (other bookies say four)...

...but if one was to fail we might have a nicely-priced E/W prospect, especially with most firms paying four places so let's see...

At 100/1 in places, I'm just tempted to discard Thunder Sun from the off, but let's crack on with a field with no LTO winners, although Bill Plumb is two from three and Rogue de Vega has a gold and two silvers from hios three career starts. Caesar's Pearl won two starts ago, but we're a bit light of decent form here and Araifjan's chances of ending a 12-race cold spell won't be helped by a step up in class.

Mohareb, Blue Flame, Sergeant Pep and rank outsider Thunder Flame all step down a class here, whilst it's a double drop for top weight Belle Fourche in a race that sees the in-form Rogue de Vega make a handicap debut.

Blue Flame has already won here at Wolverhampton over 7f, whilst Belle Fourche, Bill Plumb, Sergeant Pep, Murbih and Araifjan are former course and distance winners. Of the other half dozen runners, Mohareb, Asadjumeirah and Caesar's Pearl have won over this trip on another track.

The top two on the card, Belle Fourche & Mohareb return from breaks of 231 & 128 days respectively. Bill Plumb has been off for almost ten weeks, but the others have all been in action in the last eight weeks with Asadjumeirah and Erosion Risk having raced this month already.

We have four three year olds in the field in the shape of Rogue de Vega, Sergeant Pep, Caesar's pearl and Erosion Risk and they get a 5lb weight allowance, which should be very useful especially for the in-form handicap debutant Rogue de Vega.

Instant Expert's lowdown on this field's past A/W records show seven former standard going winners and five Class 5 winners as well as the course and distance winners from earlier. Changing the criteria will also give you three Class 3 winners and three to have scored at Class 4...

...and it's definitely the top half of the card that catches the eye, aside from Mohareb. He's already a no from me, based on the above, as are Araifjan & Erosion Risk and if we did exclude Thunder Sun, we're left with eight of our original twelve. We've omitted runners from stalls 2, 3, 4 and 12, so if Sod's Law is anything to go by, the following draw stats will tell me to look for low drawn runners!

I've gone back as far as I needed to get at least 100 past similar contests and thankfully getting a low draw isn't the be all and end all, but high draws can be a struggle...

If we look at the PRB3 stats, then we're advised that the first seven stalls are the place to be...

...and then we need to look at our daily feature pace! Those 110+ races above have tended to go to those displaying good early pace...

Leaders win more than their fair share of contests here, but the data above suggests that prominent runners rein them in late on. Now if Instant Expert wants us to look at horses with lower saddle cloth numbers (1-7?) and those drawn 1 to 7, that's only Bill Plumb and Rogue de Vega. Hmmm, what if either of those have a pace score of around 3.00 or higher? Let's see...

Summary

It's Rogue de Vega for me here and 5/1 looks more than fair about an unexposed, in-form three year old receiving a weight allowance. He's drawn well and has a good pace profile and although only three races in, has yet to run a bad one.

Of the others at the top of the market, I do like Bill Plumb for similar reasons to the selection, but I don't like him quite as much and 4/1 is too short for an E/W bet. Sergeant Pep looks too long at 10's with bet365 and would be a decent E/W pick at that price, but I'm not really keen on anything else.

Racing Insights, Monday 10/07/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.05 Ayr
  • 5.15 Ayr
  • 6.15 Ripon
  • 7.43 Roscommon

...the best of which looks like being the 4.05 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5f on good to soft ground...

None of these won last time out, but Ravenscraig Castle was a runner-up, Alpine Stroll has been second in each of his last two starts, whilst La Pulga has a win and two places from his last three and Geremia also won three races ago.

Geremia is also the one not moving in class here, as top weight Charging Thunder is down a level and the other four all step up from Class 4. La Pulga and Geremia have both won over a similar trip, whilst both Charging Thunder and Ravenscraig Castle are former course and distance winners with the latter now wearing a visor for the first time.

The entire field have raced in the last 12 to 23 days, so they should all be fresh enough to be competitive here for a race where three of them have already won on good to soft ground, according to Instant Expert, which also informs us that only one of them has scored at Class 3 before...

Charging Thunder runs on good to soft for the first time and although his stats look good above, most of that form is on good to firm ground and his recent runs have been hit and miss, finishing 2nd, 10th, 2nd and 13th, all at Class 2 after back to back Class 3 wins (inc 1 x CD) last July. The field's record at this grade isn't good at all aside from Charging Thunder, of course and both Ravenscraig Castle & Alpine Stroll have struggled to win on this softer ground, although they have both made the frame a couple of times...

The other concern about Ravenscraig Castle is the fact that he's 0 from 13 over the last two years and is still 10lbs higher than his last win. He will, of course, run from pretty much the centre of the stalls from box four, but the draw really shouldn't be having too much effect over such a lengthy trip and this theory is backed up by our stats, albeit off a small sample size...

and those races above have really favoured hold-up horses...

...which could well be some much needed good news for Ravenscraig Castle...

Summary

Geremia and Ravenscraig Castle both look well suited by the pace profile here, but that's the only real positive that I've found for the latter. La Pulga might go off too quickly and get caught and he's not really a fan of this softer ground. And you can pretty say the same about Alpine Stroll, whilst all of Charging Thunder's form is on quicker surfaces, even if he does drop in class here.

Zimmerman, however, does like the good to soft ground, but back to back wins on this going last autumn took his mark from 74 to 82 and seems to have toiled in the 80's since and is probably still in the grip of the assessor here.

All of which brings me back to Geremia, he has the ideal pace profile for this contest, he was running on well late on in defeat last time out and the extra furlong should suit, making him my tentative selection here at 4/1 with the 3/1 La Pulga probably the biggest danger.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 03/07/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.10 Southwell
  • 6.45 Windsor
  • 7.00 Musselburgh
  • 7.15 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sterling Knight was a winner last time out and is three from five, bottom weight Expert Agent is denoted as a fast finisher and has won three of his last four, whilst only Silver Samurai and Dig Two have failed to win any of their last five outings (9 & 8 respectively to be precise).

Five of these (Lethal Nymph, Silver Samurai, LTO winner Sterling Knight, Mister Bluebird & Dig Two) are stepping up a class here whilst Silver Sumarai and Dig Two both sport a tongue-tie for the first time. Bottom weight Expert Agent is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a handy 6lbs weight allowance for that.

The entire field have all won at this trip already and four (Tanmawwy, Sterling Knight, Aphelios & Dora Penny) have won over course and distance, whilst Mister Bluebird has scored here over 5f. Aphelios hasn't raced for 75 days, but that shouldn't be an issue and the others have all been out inside the last two weeks to two months.

Instant Expert adds to the above data with details on six previous good to firm winners and three Class 2 victors...

...but this data doesn't have a standout runner, sadly. it does highlight the fact that Silver Samurai has struggled at going/class and that Mister Bluebird might not be suited by the 6f trip. A further look at the place stats suggests that Aphelios is an early contender for a place here...

...whilst Sterling Knight certainly gets both track and trip and Mister Bluebird's record at 6f might not be as bad as I first feared.

As you'd expect on a fast, straight 6f, there's very little (if any) advantage from the draw here...

...which leads us to our free feature, the PACE and those races above have tended to be won by those racing furthest forward...

Prominent runners win approximately 50% more often than those further back, whilst leaders win 50% more often than the prominent runners and go on to make the frame in almost half of their races, which based on this field's recent efforts...

...would seem to be bad news for the likes of Silver Samurai, Dora Penny and Expert Agent. LTO winner Sterling Knight changed tactics to win here over course and distance a fortnight ago, so I'd expect him to be further up that chart for this race, which will probably be led out by Mister Bluebird in the early stages.

Summary

Mister Bluebird is the likely leader here, which gives him a very good chance of at least making the frame, based on the pace stats for this track and trip. He was sharp enough to win here over 5f and his place stats were decent enough on Instant Expert, so he's be a good shout for the frame here. He doesn't, however, win often enough and I feel that if Sterling Knight runs as he did here a fortnight ago, he's the one to beat. He'll be up with the pace and is in good form.

Sterling Knight is currently 4/1, which might be a touch short, whilst Mister Bluebird's 11/2 is definitely too short for me to want to back him E/W and I agree with the early market that the likes of the 4/1 Aphelios is sure to be involved. None of the longer-priced (8/1 and bigger) horses really appeal to me here, either.