Tag Archive for: Pae

Racing Insights, Monday 25/07/22

Monday's free GOLD feature is unrestricted access to the Pace tab on our racecards. It's an under-used feature by many UK bettors which is a shame as it's a really useful pointer as to how a race might unfold. We feel it is so important that we make this access fully free for all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, Monday's free races of the day...

  • 1.50 Newton Abbot
  • 5.10 Galway
  • 6.50 Ffos Las
  • 7.35 Windsor

...from which, I'm heading to Wales for a competitive looking (on paper, at least) sprint that will hope fully have more action than runners! The race in question is the 6.50 Ffos Las, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+, flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to soft ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Atty's Edge is two from five, Symbol of Hope won two starts ago and Hope Probe won three starts back. Peggoty steps up a class here, but Symbol of Hope and Red Walls are both down one level with Dora Penny dropping two classes.

All bar Peggoty have won over this trip, but we've no previous course winners. Atty's Edge hasn't raced for three months and Dora Penny's had nearly six weeks rest, but the other four have all been out earlier this month.

ATTY'S EDGE had won just two of eighteen by mid-June of last year, but ended last season with a run of form reading 152211513 taking his mark from 61 to 70. Probably needed the run at Windsor in April when 6th of 7 and almost 7 lengths adrift upon his return from six months off, I'd have preferred to have seen him run more recently than April, but on past ability and his jockey's form, he's every chance here.

SYMBOL OF HOPE does most of his running at Bath, where seven of his nine Flat runs have been this season, winning three times. The questions here about him are not about his quality, but his ability to transfer Bath form to Ffos las and how he copes with good to soft ground, as Bath is invariably quick.

DORA PENNY won back to back races last July/August, but has made the frame just once in ten starts since and her current mark of 65 is now some 10lbs lower than when she won a Class 2 nursery at Newmarket almost a year ago. She's down two classes now and her jockey likes it here...

PEGGOTY is an eight-race maiden, having placed just twice and they were her second and third starts. Just 7th of 9 last time out, beaten by six lengths and now steps up in class. Not for me.

RED WALLS has four wins and five places from twenty-nine on the A/W but hasn't won any of fifteen on turf, making the frame just twice and was last home of five at Chepstow on his last outing. Best avoided. even if his jockey is red hot right now.

HOPE PROBE has raced mainly at Chepstow this Flat season, where he has finished 3316. After finishing sixth on his last run there, he was sixth again at Newbury next/last time out on a 9-runner contest, beaten by five lengths and never threatening, but his yard have come into a bit of form.

As things stand, the top half of the cared are far more appealing than the bottom half, but maybe Instant Expert will convince me otherwise?

And I'd say that it does confirm my top half preference, but doesn't rule Hope Probe out of the running either. Red Walls looks weakest and just two places from ten at the trip isn't good. Now the top half of the card are drawn in stalls 1, 5 & 6 and previously here at Ffos Las, stall 1 has struggled...

...but I suspect that pace (our feature of the day) will have a big say in the outcome and although it's not the biggest sample size above, those races unlike many other 5f contests across the country, haven't really suited pacemakers...

...which isn't great news for Symbol of Hope or Red Walls....

Summary

The winner/placer will probably come from the top half of the field and with a high draw being preferable to a low one and pacemakers not tending to win, that's a red mark against Dora Penny (draw) and Symbol of Hope (pace), leaving me with Atty's Edge.

I do have some doubts about Atty's Edge's lack of option, but a 5/1 price compensates fort hose doubts and he's the one for me. Symbol of Hope should probably edge out Dora Penny for the place.