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Double Dutch, 6th January 2016

Double Dutch, 6th January 2016

The recent agony continued yesterday, when despite a poor day of racing on offer, I felt that all four selections had really good chances and in fairness, they all ran well enough.

Things started excellently for us at Lingfield, as Tempuran drifted out to 5/1 before winning by four lengths ahead of our other runner Todd, to not only give us a decent stake for race two, but also landed us a forecast just north of 16.5/1.

Unfortunately, the final furlong of the 11 proved too much for both our runners and we had to settle for the supporting roles in second and third places.

A winner, two runners-up and a third place from four runners is no disaster of course, but it meant that we saw a 23/1 double slip away again.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Tempuran : WON at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Todd : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
The forecast paid £17.52 here to a £1 stake.
----------------------------------------------------
Ralphy's Lad : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 3/1)
Swift Cedar : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
772 winning selections from 2766 = 27.91%
240 winning bets in 716 days = 33.52%

Stakes: 1431.00pts
Returns: 1505.04pts
P/L : +74.04pts (+5.17% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

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1.30 Chelmsford :

Rosealee went close to defying a 193-day absence here over course and distance last time out under today's jockey (and friend of geegeez) Adam Beschizza. She was entitled to have needed that run after her lay off and after just three starts is still unexposed. She runs off the same mark here today as she did 10 days ago and there was no disgrace in getting beaten by a length by Aguerooo, who has won both his starts since. There's nothing of that calibre here, suggesting Rosealee can go one better at 15/8 BOG.

The danger looks set to come from the in-form Krystallite, who marked her own comeback after a 150 day layoff by finishing 3rd in a Class 2 contest over this trip at Wolverhampton, before narrowly failing as a runner-up here over C&D (Class 4) amonth ago and since then she has run at Wolverhampton again, winning over this trip 16 days ago off today's mark, giving Krystallite every chance at 5/2 BOG

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1.50 Wolverhampton :

It's almost two years since we've seen Pass The Time run on the flat/AW, but she's not been idle during that time, she's been developing into a Grade class hurdler, which ensures she'll have the stamina required to see out this 2m 0.5f trip today. Class 6 racing is far removed from where we normally see her and her undoubted ability allied to a positive jockey bookey of track specialist Adam Kirby suggest a big run for a yard that has done really well on the A/W of late and it wouldn't be too surprising if Pass The Time took this at 11/4 BOG.

In her way is the 7/4 BOG favourite and LTO winner Mr Boss Man, who was a winner on this track over 1m6f a week ago. He is, of course, penalised for that win, meaning he gives at least 6lb to the entire field (and 10 to Pass The Time) which might well be his undoing here. The trip won't be an issue, he has won over hurdsles at this distance, he actually stays 3 miles over hurdles and has also completed eight bumpers. Mr Boss Man is a bit short for my liking as a single bet, but as half of a possible double...

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Rosealee / Mr Boss Man @ 6.91/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Rosealee / Pass The Time @ 10.5/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Betway)
Krystallite / Mr Boss Man @ 10.92/1 (10/3 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Krystallite / Pass The Time @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 3rd December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd December 2014

At 13/8 & 11/4, we had two winners yesterday, that might have only combined to give us a modest double at 8.84/1 and a 2.92pts profit, but it's always good to get the first win of the month under the belt, so to speak.

It was a quickfire back to back lunchtime special yesterday with Master Dee taking the 12.30 race more comfortably than the official margin of 1.5 lengths might suggest. He was never really troubled, despite the runner up putting in a big effort, whilst Zermatt showed signs of a return to form before weakening in the latter stages.

And then just fifteen minutes later, Sue Smith's Ballymoat put the race to bed a long way from home. He led from 4 out and was clear by 3 out. He could even afford a mistake at the last (he did fall at the last fence on his previous run when leading!) and still win by a good 8 lengths and pulling away.

Jewellery was a bit of a disappointment back in fourth place, emptying out pretty quickly once headed 4 from home and eventually finished 4th, beaten by 28 lengths. The other horse I considered, Gold Ingot, was the 5/2 favourite and runner-up.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Master Dee: won at 6/4 (adv 13/8)
Zermatt: u/p at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
------------------------------------------
Ballymoat: won at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Jewellery: u/p at 5/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
423 winning selections from 1474 = 28.70%
135 winning bets in 383 days = 35.25%

Stakes: 767.50pts
Returns: 847.44pts

P/L : +79.94pts (+10.42% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'd now like to continue from we left off yesterday!

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1.00 Lingfield:

An interesting race here, with four LTO winners coming to the party in a field of just six runners, but the one I think they'll have to beat is Biting Bullets, who looks at the top of his game at present. He was beaten by less than a length at Wolverhampton three starts ago and now comes here seeking a hat-trick of wins after comfortably winning by four lengths at Kempton on Monday. He's well in under a 6lb penalty and although this is his first crack at the mile trip, the way he finished on Monday suggested he could make that step up and win again here at 15/8 BOG.

I then don't expect there to be too much between Marmalad and Greatest Journey, but at more than double the latter's price, there's more value in siding with Marmalad, who is the only runner here who has won at this track and/or over this distance previously, so he has little to prove, after winning over course and distance here a fortnight ago. He was pretty comfortable when getting home by the best part of two lengths that day on what was only his second effort on the A/W (runner-up at Wolverhampton) and his Lingfield debut and I'd expect him to go well again at 4/1 BOG.

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1.40 Ludlow:

The market seems to think this will be a two-horse race between Mystery Drama and Pass The Time and bar one of these girls falling over, I'd expect them to be the first two home.

Mystery Drama has decent ground speed demonstrated in two back to back wins over 1m4f on the A/W last year, which she then followed up with a win on her hurdling debut over today's trip on similarly good to soft ground at Leicester, before being pitched into a Listed event at Aintree, where she was runner-up to subsequent Grade 3 winner Gitane du Berlais and she was 8 lengths clear of Poetic verse who has since won three times, including once at Class 2, one level higher than this contest here.

Mystery Drama has been a fairly unlucky runner-up on two of her last three runs, firstly hitting the front too soon and idling late on, getting caught and then last time out, she was left with far too much to do on heavy ground at Leicester at fortnight ago. Better ground and hopefully a lesson learned should do the trick today and a 5/2 BOG (Stan James) win could very well be on the cards.

Pass The Time will, of course, ensure she doesn't have it all her own way, despite her form not looking great on paper (798 since winning at Doncaster in February), but she has been running at a much higher grade than this. She was 6.5 lengths behind Quevega at the Cheltenham Festival (Gr 2), then ran in a grade 3 at Aintree three weeks later. She was then off the track for 28 weeks before reappearing at Cheltenham in mid-October, where she clearly needed the run.

This race is a much poorer standard than the usual type of race she contests and the pipe-opener as well as the drop in trip could help Pass The Time pick up the winning habit again at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Biting Bullets / Mystery Drama @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Biting Bullets / Pass The Time @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Boylesports & Paddy Power)
Marmalad / Mystery Drama @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Marmalad / Pass The Time @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : generally)

Double Dutch, 9th January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th January 2014

As Jon Bon Jovi famously sang..."we're halfway there!", we did at least get ourselves back amongst the winners, as our 11/2 shot Fearless Lad just got up on the line to win by a neck, giving us a healthy stake for our second set of runners.

My first pick drifted in the market and was badly outpaced late on, whilst Perfect Pursuit stayed on, but couldn't quite collar the winner, who incidentally was the one I passed over to back Perfect Pursuit! Sod's Law, I suppose.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Fearless Lad: won at 4/1 SP (adv 11/2)
Up Tipp: 4th of 6 at 5/4 SP (adv 7/4)
---------------------------------
Perfect Pursuit : 2nd at 6/4 SP (adv 5/2)
Rosie Prospects : 4th of 5 at 5/2 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
113 winning selections from 388 = 29.12%
35 winning doubles in 104 days = 33.65%

Stakes: 206.00pts
Returns: 213.64pts

P/L : +7.64pts (+3.71% ROI)

Sticking with the A/W today for a couple of better-looking contests than of late:

3.50 Southwell:

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Although you could make a case for all five runners here, the fact that Lesha has already tasted victory at this track makes him my preferred option. He stayed on well to win by over two lengths here almost four weeks ago and his breeding suggests the extra 3 furlongs today will suit him.

The booking of Jamie Spencer could be both interesting and significant here: Jamie doesn't come here too often, but is successful when he does with 8 winners from 19 in the last three years. Lesha is my pick at a generally available 11/4 BOG.

Of the remainder, I like the look of Groovejet most. She comes here seeking a hat trick after narrow wins at 1m and 9.5f. She won both races by just three parts of a length, just getting home and staying on strongest and looks to be screaming to go further. 1m3f might just be right up her street if she can be kept close to the head of affairs until late and could snatch this at an attractive 9/2 BOG.

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6.10 Wolverhampton:

Flash Crash has to concede lumps of weight all round, but thankfully Louis Steward's 7lb claim cancels out the 6lb penalty incurred for his runaway victory at Southwell a week ago over a similar trip to today. He hit the front with almost half a mile to go and eased to an 11 lengths victory, winning comfortably enough to suggest a follow-up at 7/4 BOG.

Pass The Time hasn't finished outside the first three in the last six months (2 wins and 5 places from 7 races), all at 2 miles and beyond and on both turf (flat and hurdles) as well as A/W.

She's very versatile and comes here looking for a hat trick on the back of a 2m1f hurdles win at Taunton and a win on Southwell's A/W track on Tuesday over two miles. Stamina shouldn't be her downfall today and 9/4 BOG (Betinternet) looks quite fair, providing this race hasn't come too soon for her.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Lesha / Flash Crash @ 9.31/1 (Stan James 11/4 & 7/4)
Lesha / Pass The Time @ 10.25/1 (Stan James, Betfred 11/4 & 2/1)
Groovejet / Flash Crash @ 14.13/1 (BetVictor 9/2 & 7/4)
Groovejet / Pass The Time @ 16.19/1 (BetVictor 9/2 & 85/40)

Double Dutch, 4th December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th December 2013

Tuesday was another losing day, but at least we got back on the winning trail with the 9/4 winner in race 2. I know it's scant consolation, but it is a step back in the right direction after the failings of the last few days.

Earlier, Moorlands Jack fell 2 from home when in contention, whilst Last Shot came home last of the 5 runners who did finish. And then AP McCoy kept Fly Home Harry up to his work and he stayed on well to win by almost 2 lengths with Vasco Pierji back in third, almost six lengths behind him.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Last Shot: unplaced
Moorlands Jack: fell
---------------------------------
Fly Home Harry: won at 9/4
Vasco Pierji: last of 5!

Results to date:
74 winning selections from 261 = 28.35%
22 winning doubles in 71 days = 30.99%

Stakes: 140.00pts
Returns: 135.50pts

P/L : -4.50pts (-3.21% ROI)

A 4.5pt deficit isn't insurmountable by any means, but it would be nice to make some inroads into it today with these:

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1.30 Lingfield:

Bancnuanaheireann drops into Class 2 racing today after a tremendous run over course and distance in a Listed event last time out. He finished second in the Churchill Stakes that day and he was only beaten by just over two lengths and any repeat of that run or his previous outing (winner of a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket) should be more than enough for him to take this at odds of 7/4 (Coral).

The most likely of the other four runners to give him most problems should be Uramazin (7/2 generally). This one has won a Group 2 race in Hong Kong and ran to within half a length of Bancnuanaheireann here in that C&D Churchill Stakes 17 days ago. If the favourite isn't quite at it here, then this would leave the door wide open providing he keeps closer to the front of the pack this time.

1.40 Ludlow:

Neil Mulholland's horses are going really well of late with 6 wins from 18 in the last fortnight and I'd expect Pass The Time to improve that record for him. This 4yr old filly is already proving to be a consistent performer over hurdles with 3 wins and 3 places from just 8 starts. She was a winner last time out at Taunton and although she's up 7lbs to a mark of 118 here, the way she put that last race to bed was very impressive indeed.

It was only six days ago when she took on the 135-rated dual Listed race winner She Ranks Me and prevailed by 11 lengths in a comfortable win and I think there's still more to come from this one and should well take this at 7/4 BOG.

I suppose there'll be doubts whether or not this race is too soon for her and if that proves to be the case, then this could very well suit Buxom, who is currently available at 11/4. Buxom was also a good winner last time out, as she ground out a one length victory on soft ground at Huntingdon three weeks ago and confidence will be high as she attempts to double up on better ground.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bancnuanaheireann / Pass The Time @ 7.56 with Coral
Bancnuanaheireann / Buxom @ 9.84 with BetVictor
Uramazin / Pass The Time @ 12.38 with Bet365, BetVictor and Coral
Uramazin / Buxom @ 16.88 with BetVictor