Posts

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.30 Hamilton : Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good To Firm ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding has won each of his last four starts (2 over hurdles and 2 over fences) and although he is up 9lbs for a win at Cartmel over this trip LTO 29 days ago, he did win very comfortably by 9 lengths that day and now drops back in class.

The third placed horse that day, Angel of Harlem, was 12 lengths off the pace, yet she has since turned back out to land a Class 3 chase over 3 miles at Uttoxeter by 10 lengths off a mark just one pound lower than our boy runs off today.

His handicap strike rate is excellent at 25.7% via a 9 from 35 record and contains of relevance today...

  • 66.6% (2/3) at this trip
  • 57.1% (4/7) with blinkers and a tongue tie
  • 40% (4/10) with the tongue tie
  • 36% (9/25) at 5-35 days since last run
  • 35.3% (6/17) with blinkers
  • 33.3% (8/24) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 32% (8/25) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 27.3% (3/11) under jockey James Bowen
  • 26.3% (5/19) on Good ground
  • 26.1% (6/23) at 2m7f and beyond
  • 23.5% (4/17) at Class 3 or better
  • and 21.7% (5/23) over fences

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose handicap chasers are 39 from 210 (18.6% SR) for a very creditable 74.3pts (+35.4% ROI) blindly backed over the last three "summers" and I use that word lightly and refer to the May-September period. Of the 210 runners, the following are of note today...

  • 36/179 (20.1%) for 90.8pts (+50.7%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 36/176 (20.5%) for 96pts (+54.5%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 32/168 (19%) for 75.8pts (+45.1%) on Good or Good to Firm
  • 29/150 (19.3%) for 69.5pts (+46.3%) with a tongue tie
  • 28/137 (20.4%) for 87.5pts (+63.9%) beyond 2m6f
  • 17/88 (19.3%) for 40.4pts (+46%) with blinkers
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 23.7pts (+51.4%) with LTO winners
  • and 13/61 (21.3%) for 31.5pts (+51.6%) with both blinkers and tongue tie

...whilst from those angles...in 5-12 runner, Class 2-4 contests beyond 2m6f, Peter's Summer Hcp Chasers are 18 from 71 (25.4% SR) for 97.2pts (+137% ROI) wearing a tongue tie, giving us almost 131% of the original profit from less than 34% of the selections and almost quadrupling the ROI.

And for those who like to drill down further, that 18/71 composite above includes...

  • 9/25 (36%) for 45.9pts (+183.6%) in blinkers
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 22.4pts (+149.5%) from LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.3pts (+289.9%) from LTO winners now in blinkers
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 24.3pts (+607.5%) from LTO winners now in blinkers at odds 4/1 to 8/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.55pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

8.40 Worcester : Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced after 3 out, never able to challenge, weakened last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.35 Ffos Las:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?...

Trainer Peter Bowen's chasers are 31/101 (30.7% SR) for 38.7pts (+38.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of evens to 13/2 here at Ffos Las since 2o12 and these include...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 29/89 (32.6%) for 41pts (+46%)
  • at 4 to 60 days since last run : 27/78 (34.6%) for 47.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 20/65 (30.8%) for 29.6pts (+45.5%)
  • ridden by Sean Bowen : 16/44 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+58.2%)
  • in May : 7/16 (43.75%) for 11.2pts (+69.9%)
  • 6 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 6.85pts (+52.7%)

...and when Sean Bowen has ridden a Class 4 runner over 2m to 3m, 4 to 60 after the horse last ran = 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 15pts at an ROI of 83.2%.

More generally in "Summer Jumps" ie handicap chases during May to September, Peter Bowen has 33 winners from 148 (22.3% SR) for profits of 96.6pts (+65.3% ROI) since the start of May 2017, from which...

  • Sean Bowen is 26/99 (26.3%) for 54.5pts (+55%)
  • those turned out 11-45 days after their last run are 23/91 (25.3%) for 51.2pts (+56.2%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 18/64 (28.1%) for 94.4pts (+147.6%)

...whilst Sean Bowen on Class 4 runners, 11-45 days after their last run = 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 23.5pts (+94% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

1.10 Uttoxeter : Deebaj @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up towards rear on outside, not fluent 8th and pushed along, headway before 3 out, close 3rd when mistake last, stayed on, but beaten by a neck and a nose)

Satruday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground worth £9747 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has been in sparkling form this year, achieving a top 3 finish in each of his last seven runs, including four wins!

He's by Desert King, whose NH runners are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 22.4pts (+43% ROI) over trips of 2m1f and shorter since the start of 2017.

And he's trained by Peter Bowen, whose chasers are 88 from 408 (21.6% SR) for 125.6pts (+30.8% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016, which is a remarkable record and includes of relevance here...

  • males : 83/386 (21.5%) for 125.3pts (+32.5%)
  • at 9/4 to 10/1 : 64/262 (24.4%) for 167.3pts (+63.9%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 : 62/250 (25%) for 163.2pts (65.3%)
  • 11-20 dslr : 38/112 (33.9%) for 116pts (+103.6%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 at 11-20 dslr : 27/67 (40.3%) for 85.05pts (+126.9%)
  • on Soft : 18/80 (22.5%) for 14.7pts (+18.4%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 on Soft : 11/41 (26.8%) for 33.6pts (+81.9%)
  • and males at 9/4 to 10/1 on Soft at 11-20 dslr : 4/10 (40%) for 8.97pts (+89.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG, as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & BetVictor at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2018

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton :Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG non-runner declared lame an hour before post time....

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

Why?

A chaser at the top of his game with 6 wins, 3 places and a 4th (but that was in a Listed event) from his last 10 starts, plus he's won his last four taking his chasing record to 8 from 21, which based on today's conditions also includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie and 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within 30 days of his last run and 6/13 going left handed
  • 4/10 in fields of 1-7 runners and 2/4 under today's jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1 from 1 at today's trip and 1 from 1 heavy ground

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose NH handicappers are 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 63.2pts (+59.7% ROI) on heavy ground over the last 5 years, from which...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 20/76 (26.3%) for 93.2pts (+122.7%)
  • at Chepstow : 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.77pts (+142.3%)

Plus, his handicap chasers who won LTO 4-30 days earlier are 17/64 (26.6% SR) for 27.9pts (+43.6% ROI) over the same 5 year period, including...

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter : 17/54 (31.5%) for 37.9pts (+70.2%)
  • at 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/47 (36.2%) for 44.9pts (+95.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter over 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/40 (42.5%) for 51.9pts (+129.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 16.51pts (+275.2%)
  • on heavy : 2/4 (50%) for 7.38pts (+184.5%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/2 (100%) for 11.84pts (+592%)

And finally, Play the Ace was sired by Scorpion, whose offspring are 12/103 (11.7% SR) for 98pts (+95.1% ROI) in NH handicaps on soft or worse ground over last 5 years, including 9 wins from 47 (19.2%) for 128.5pts (+273.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m4f.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in half a dozen places at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2017

Boxing Day's Result :

3.25 Market Rasen: Focaccia @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/2 Prominent on outside, driven to lead after 3 out, headed next, weakened before last, tailed off.

No joy on a busy day, next up is Wednesday's...

1.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding who has already won 8 of his 21 (38.1% SR) starts over fences, including 6 wins and 3 places from 10 over the last six months and has won each of his last four!

His 8/21 chasing record includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie, 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within a month of his last run, 6/13 going left handed
  • 6/12 this year, 2/4 under jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1/1 on heavy and 1/1 at today's trip but stays (and has won) over further

His trainer Peter Bowen has a good record running horses in tough conditions, as his heavy ground handicappers are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 65.6pts (+61.9% ROI) over the last five years and amongst those 106 mudlarks...

  • those racing over 2m to 3m are 21/76 (27.6%) for 95.6pts (+125.8%)
  • those running here at Chepstow are 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.8pts (+142.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/11 (63.6%) for 27.2pts (+247.5%) : a small but astonishing sample!

More generally over the last couple of years, Peter's runners have also achieved the following of interest/relevance...

  • chasers are 51/233 (21.9%) for 116.5pts (+50%)
  • hcp chasers are 44/215 (20.5%) for 103.3pts (+48%)
  • LTO winners are 22/92 (23.9%) for 36pts (+39.1%)
  • chasers who won LTO are 14/49 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+61.6%)
  • hcp chasers who won LTO are 14/47 (29.8%) for 32.2pts (+68.5%), of which those running on heavy ground are 3 from 3 for 12.08pts (+402.8%).

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Boxing Day.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.00 Newcastle : Palenville @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Tracked leaders, every chance over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by 0.75 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

What A Diva @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Peter Bowen's 6 yr old mare was a soft ground winner last time out over at Market Rasen 15 days ago and is the yard's only chance of success today.

This horse appears on several of my microsystems and here are just 4 reasons why I'm backing her today...

  • Since 2009, when Peter has had just one runner that day, he has managed to saddle up 74 winners from 541 (13.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 55.6pts at an ROI of 10.3%.
  • Since 2013, on heavy ground, his runners are 23/157 (14.7%) for 39.1pts (+24.9%) with handicappers winning 14 of 87 (16.1%) for profits of 49pts (+56.3%).
  • Since 2014, his late season (Feb-April) handicappers are 24/119 (20.2%) for 118pts (+99.1%)
  • And since 2015, his LTO winners are 23/87 (26.4%) for 32.3pts (+37.2%) with handicappers winning 17 of 61 (27.9%) for 29.6pts (+48.5%)

...all leading to...a 1pt win bet on What A Diva @ 100/30 BOG which was available from BetVictor and/or Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Wednesday with plenty of more than acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2016

Thursday's Result :

4.40 Chelmsford : Geraldine @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, edging left when switched right 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish, beaten by a length.)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Ascot

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Minella Daddy @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Finishes of 128221 in his last six races suggest he is prime form as a former Gr 3 hurdler rated 132 in that sphere, who has now ran twice in chase contests finishing as a runner-up and then winning in this grade over this trip at Ffos Las almost five weeks ago.

He was 6 lengths clear of the highly rated (OR 140 over hurdles) Whataknight that day and the latter has also gone on to win since.  Peter Bowen's Minella Daddy hasn't ran on good to soft ground before but has won (and placed) on both Good and Soft, so the going really shouldn't hold too many fears here.

To date, he is...

  • 2 from 6 (312821) under Sean Bowen
  • 2 from 4 (1221) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 from 3 (121) at 2m 7.5f / 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3
  • 1 from 1 in blinkers

...all of which suggests he'll enjoy today's race conditions as the team attempt to improve upon the family record in these type of contests, with the Peter / Sean combination already tasting success 22 times from 81 (27.2% SR) handicap chases with horses priced at Evens to 6/1 with these runners producing level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+21.8% ROI).

Of those 81 runners, those racing over trips of 2m 5f to 3m inclusive are 15/40 (37.5%) for 28.1pts (+70.3%) and Class 3 runners are 8 from 25 (32%) for 8.75pts (+35%) with those racing in Class 3 contests over 2m 5f to 3m winning 5 of 11 (54.5%) for 11.1pts (+100.9%)

And before i sign off, just a quick nod in the direction of Peter Bowen and his recent record with LTO winners, as in NH contests since the start of 2015, those runners are 22/78 (28.2% SR) for 37.9pts (+48.6% ROI) including of relevance here...

  • 16/55 (29.1%) for 32.2pts (+58.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/30 (30%) for 25.9pts (+86.4%) in chases
  • and 9 from 28 (32.1%) for 27.9pts (+99.75%) in handicap chases

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Minella Daddy at 9/2 BOG with any of BetVictor, Coral and/or SKyBet who led the way at 5.40pm on Thursday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2016

Monday's Result :

2.50 Windsor : Sirajiah @ 9/2 BOG WON at 4/1 (Towards rear, headway halfway to chase leaders, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by half a length in the end.)

It was only when I was compiling the review of last week's efforts (that review is here, in case you missed it), that I realised that Sirajiah was our 1500th SotD selection, so a 9/2 winner was a lovely way to hit that milestone. We now set sail towards 2000 picks, as...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Worcester:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinari at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Bowen's yard is showing the early signs of springing into action in advance of the "proper" NH season with two winners from their last 8 runners and three winners from their last six chase contests with jockey Sean Bowen being 2/7 and 3/5 from those two sets of runners.

The above augurs well for a yard that has already had 17 winners from 72 (23.6% SR) for 31.2pts (+43.3% ROI) profit here at Worcester since the start of 2013, with the following of both relevance and interest today...

  • those with a top 4 finish LTO : 13/49 (26.5%) for 39.2pts (+80%)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter : 15/48 (31.25%) for 11.44pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground : 10/45 (22.2%) for 39.1pts (+86.9%)
  • chasers : 7/32 (21.9%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%)
  • hcp chasers : 6/28 (21.4%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%)
  • and over this 2m4f trip : 4/19 (21.1%) for 20.3pts (+106.6%)

In additon to the above, Kinari is also Peter's only runner of the day and in the past (since 2008, anyway!) such solo runners are 72/502 (14.3% SR) for 84.8pts (+16.9% ROI) with those returning from a break of 21 to 60 days winning 31 of 241 (+12.9%) for 52.1pts (+21.6%).

The above sets of data don't shout "5/1 shot" to me, so I think we could nick a point or more above SP here, especially when you consider the horse's own credentials and suitability for the task in hand.

This 6 yr old gelding's last 4 runs have resulted in a sequence reading 1112, all over fences and it's highly likely that the last of those runs was just one race too many as his sixth outing in just 73 days. He has now had 58 days to get over the exertions and a drop in trip allied with a 2lb easing of his mark by the assessor must give him a fighting chance of a fourth win in 11 starts over fences.

And of his current 3/10 record in chase contests, he has achieved the following...

  • 3/7 at 6/1 or shorter
  • 3/7 at the age of 6
  • 2/7 under Sean Bowen
  • 3/6 in a tongue tie
  • 3/5 on good ground
  • 3/4 wearing a visor
  • 2/4 in these low prize money Class 4 contests
  • 1/2 here at Worcester
  • and despite never running at 2m4f, he did win his only race at 2m 5f by some 4.5 lengths four starts ago when winning for the first time over fences.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Kinari at 5/1 BOG with any one of the seven firms all offering the same odds at 6.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2015

Tangolan jumped poorly, ran poorly, finished poorly and was sent off at a longer price than most of us has taken.

All round, a poor day!

We took 11/4, which I thought was a good price, Rule 4 reduced this to 11/5 and he was sent off at 5/2 with little market confidence. The market was, of course proven correct as he was last home of four, beaten by 64 lengths.

Saturdays are always tough, but I doubt I could do much worse than Friday's pick with the one I've chosen from the...

4.55 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

As I stake my Geegeez shilling on the 3/1 BOG Forever My Friend in this 2m5f, Class 4 handicap chase.

Forever My Friend comes here hoping to maintain his recent fine form that has seen him win on each of his last outings, firstly at Cartmel 46 days ago at a higher grade than this over today's 2m5f, before winning again over 2m 5.5f at Market Rasen 21 days ago.

So, he now comes here on a hat-trick and having swerved yesterday's SotD race, I'd expect him to go well again and land his 8th chase victory from just 27 starts.

Of his current 7/26 record over fences, all seven wins have come from the 28 times he was sent off at 6/1 or shorter,he is 6 from 19 in fields of 5 to 9 runners and 6 from 14 on good ground.

In addition to this, he is 3 from 9 running after a break of 11 to 25 days, 3 from 6 at today's trip, including 2 wins from 4 over course and distance with the same 2/4 record under today's jockey Sean Bowen.

All of which suggests conditions are ideal for him here today, as he looks to extend his trainer, Peter Bowen's fine record in handicap chases, which has seen him land 102 winners from 653 runners (15.6% SR) since the start of 2010, a record that has produced 93.8pts profit at an ROI of 14.4% and those 653 runners can be analysed as follows...

  • male runners are 100/627 (16% SR) for 105pts (+16.8% ROI)
  • those who last ran 6 to 25 days ago are 63/328 (19.2% SR) for 132.6pts (+40.4% ROI)
  • those in fields of 5 to 8 runners are 66/293 (22.5% SR) for 41.2pts (+14.1% ROI)
  • those running over 2m4f to 2m5.5f are 28/143 (19.6% SR) for 104.2pts (+72.9% ROI)

And if you want another 35 to 40 bets per year microsystem for your portfolio, you could go with Peter Bowen's male handicap chasers running in fields of 5 to 12 runners at trips of 2.5 miles to 3.5 miles 6 to 25 days after their last run.

That gives 48 winners from 210 (22.9% SR) and level stakes profits of 116.9pts at an ROI of 55.6% with a record of 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 10.75pts (+82.7% ROI) so far this year,

We should also consider that Forever My Friend is in good form and has a good record over course and distance and its worth knowing that since 2010 Peter Bowen's handicappers who were winners last time out and then raced over a track and trip they'd already won at, went on to win again on 10 of 31 occasions (32.3%SR), generating profits of 10pts (+32.3% ROI) in the process.

Of those 31 runners, they are 6/23 over fences, 4/9 at Class 4 and 4/7 here at Ffos Las.

That 3/1 BOG price is with Betway, but the Betfred / Totesport duo are also offering the same as you'll see when you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Ffos Las

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Stat of the Day, 30th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2014

Ouch!

Hot (or not so hot, really!) on the heels of Thursday's last of ten, came Friday's runner who finished last of 12!

Time to panic? Of course not, it has admittedly been a difficult month and the last two days haven't been very good at all, But as Matt has pointed out on the Double Dutch recently, form is temporary and the results we have both achieved together as a team on SotD will stand up to the closest scrutiny amongst any other "tipsters".

And, there's always Saturday!  :D, where I close out the month with a trip to Lincolnshire for the...

6.00 Market Rasen:

Where I'm siding with the more favoured of two Peter Bowen runners, Strumble Head, who currently trades at 4/1 BOG in a couple of places.

Peter has an excellent record here at this track with 29 winners from just 137 runners since 2008. This 21.2% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 84.2pts at an ROI of 61.5% and whilst the strike rate is exactly the same for handicaps and non-handicaps alike, all the profit comes from the former.

The 21.2% strike rate in handicaps comes via a record of 22 wins from 104 runners, but he overall profit here is 85.8pts, or a whopping 82.5% ROI. Most of the winners have come in chase contests, where Peter's record reads 16 winners from 68 (23.5% SR) for 43.6pts profit at an ROI of 64.1%.

Which, I suppose, inexorably leads us to the fact that Peter Bowen has an excellent record in handicap chases at Market Rasen, as seen by his 16/64 (25% SR) record which has generated 47.6pts (+74.3% ROI) and those sent off in the 2/1 to 8/1 odds range have fared even better with a 1-in-3 strike rate (13 from 39) producing 34.4pts (+88.2% ROI) profit.

Strumble Head is a former course and distance winner who came back into form when winning at Ffos Las a week ago. That win came on the back of a run of three poor efforts after previously finishing third at the Welsh track in May. This takes his last five runs to a series of finishes reading 34751 and he's turned out quickly again to catch him whilst in good heart.

He's not the first horse to be used in this way and he qualifies for my "back to form" microsystem I've talked about in the past. The basics criteria to be met are : UK NH Handicaps and a horse won won LTO inside the last 30 days after a run of 3 (or more!) consecutive unplaced efforts.

Since the start of 2012, there has actually been 932 such runners (far more than you'd expect) and the 202 winners is a 21.2% portion of those runners, whilst the resultant 149.6pts profit equates to 16.1% of stakes invested to date.

A simple 14/1 odds cap reduce the number of runners down to 851, but we only lose 2 winners and the 200/851 record gives us a strike rate of 23.5% and level stakes profits of 177.1pts (+20.8% ROI). In this sub-14/1 group, Peter Bowen is 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 11.7pts (+90.2% ROI)!

And those running at odds between 5/2 and 10/1 have won 103 of 532 races (19.4% SR) for 146.2pts (+27.5% ROI) with Peter Bowen contributing 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) for 13.22pts (+220.3% ROI).

Strumble Head took full advantage of a falling handicap mark to score last time out and although he's back up in weight, he's clearly in good nick and conditions will suit him today.

He has won four of 17 on good ground and gets the 3m1f readily as proven with his course and distance win. Jockey Donal Devereux has been in the saddle every time this horse has won in the past (9/32 together) and the horse is 6/16 at this level.

Further interesting stats about the horse include a 9/21 record when priced at 6/1 or shorter, improving to 6/9 at 4/1 or shorter. So, if the money's down, he has a chance. He's 5/11 in fields of seven or fewer runners and has won 6 of 22 races when running within 30 days of his last outing.

He's 4/6 in the month of August and has a record of 6/17 in blinkers. Of note here is the application of a tongue tie for the first time and if that has the expected/desired effect, we could well end the month on a high with a winning 1pt bet on Strumble Head at 4/1 BOG.

I'm on with bet365, but I know BetVictor are currently offering the same price. To see what the others are offering is really easy. You just need to...

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Stat of the Day, 20th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2014

Sedgemoor Express was a pretty comfortable winner at Ffos Las on Wednesday evening in a race only marred by a 50% Rule 4 deduction from our advised 9/2 odds.

The deduction was made after four of the original none runners were withdrawn at various stages of the day, including 2 of them less than an hour before race time. All of which meant we were playing at 9/4 BOG, which was still a significant improvement on the 10/11 SP finally returned.

Chase action in Lincolnshire awaits us today and the...

4.35 Market Rasen:

Where Richard Johnson will ride Peter Bowen's 6/1 BOG rated (PP) course specialist Bookem Danno in this Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 6.5f on good ground.

Peter Bowen's horses are going really well of late with 9 winners and 9 place from just 31 runs on the last month and long-term profit can be achieved by simply backing all Peter's runners in chase events.

Since the start of 2010, 102 of his 632 chase entries (16.1% SR) have gone on to win and the resultant 119.64pts profit represents almost 19% of stakes invested. The strike rate in handicap chases improves a little to 16.5% (87 winners from 528) and the ROI jumps up to 26.3% courtesy of 138.93pts returned.

If we apply a simple 12/1 odds cap to those handicap chasers, we have 81 winners from 408 (19.83% SR) for 87.3pts (+21.4% ROI). All of which gives us confidence to back the Bowen chasers blindly.

Peter Bowen also has a good record here at Market Rasen and his record can be broken down as follows:
All races : 57/230 (24.8% SR) for 165.25pts (+71.8% ROI)
Chases only : 29/107 (27.1% SR) for 65.64pts (+60.8% ROI)

All races here since the start of 2010 : 24/97 (24.7% SR) for 67.1pts (+69.1% ROI)
Chases only : 12/44 (27.3% SR) for 19.14pts (+43.5% ROI)
Chases at 8/1 or shorter : 12/30 (28.8% SR) for 33.14pts (+110.5% ROI)

Jockey Richard Johnson is no mug either, with a solidly consistent near-20% strike rate (88/442) over the last six months, form which has rewarded his followers with profits of 111.3pts (+25.2% ROI) since Christmas, of which 32 winners came from 147 chase contests (21.8% SR) producing 66.83pts (+45.4% ROI) profit.

Richard also has a good record when riding for Peter Bowen with 50 winners from just 197 rides and the 25.4% strike rate has produced a modest yield of 11.6% via 22.9pts profit at level stakes. Half the winners (25) have come from he 83 chase events (30.1% SR) with the resultant 24.1pts profit equaling some 29% of stakes invested. Since 2010, Mr Johnson is 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 14pts (+34.1% ROI) on the Bowen string.

The jockey is also well versed at getting round this Market Rasen track, having ridden 20 winners from 96 attempts (20.8% SR) since 2010 and this has given rise to level stakes profits of 16.4pts, (+17.1% ROI) with his record on chasers running at 8/34 (23.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+78.5% ROI)

So, we have a trainer and a jockey both in decent form. We know they work well together and they both have a good record at the track, particularly over today's chase course, but what about the horse, Bookem Danno?

Well, no qualms here either regarding course, going or trip as far as I can see. His finishes in eight races here at Market Rasen have been 41110141, five wins from 8 and the only bad run coming on soft ground, whilst all five wins have come when there has been the word Good in the official going title, where he is 5 from 10.  Although most of his wins have come at shorter trips than this, he was a course and distance winner here just under five weeks ago and is sent out again to see if he can help his trainer land this race  for the second year in a row.

Bookem Danno is up in weight for that latest win, but the signs are good for his attempt to win his third race in four, as Peter Bowen often turns out chasers within 6 weeks of a win to good effect. In fact, over the four seasons, Peter has had 32 chasers sent off at an increased OR at odds of 8/1 or shorter within six weeks of a win last time out, suggesting that the market is keen on them.

11 of the 32 (34.4% SR) have gone on to record back-to-back victories, generating 15.2pts (+47.4% ROI) profits in the process.

It's almost enough to cause you number blindness, but if the stats ring true and the horse continues his progression for a trainer who excels at this time of year (47/187 from May to July from 2011/13), then we should be cashing in on a 1pt win bet on Bookem Danno at 6/1 BOG with PP. Betfair Sportsbook are currently offering the same price, so why not...

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Trainers Stats: 16th July 2013

Sir-Michael-Stoute-001Andy Newton’s got 3 flat and 3 NH yards that have their horses in cracking form……see which ones here. Read more

Trainer Stats: 2nd July 2013

Peter Bowen

Peter Bowen Horses In Cracking Order....

Andy Newton's on hand with his HOT TRAINERS list - see who's made it into the top 6 this week. Read more

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2013

Another good winner for Chris yesterday, beating the 11/4 SP with his recommended 7/2 early price, so I've a challenge to replicate his fine form while he enjoys a day off. Faint heart never won fair maiden, and I'm having a small dig at probably the most competitive race of the day, the...

4.30 Perth

No yard is in better fettle right now than Peter Bowen's. The man is almost literally on fire, but mercifully the only burns on show are to those bookmakers whose fingers dare take the Welsh wizard on.

Specifically, in the last fourteen days, Bowen has saddled 28 runners, with ten of them winniner (36%), and another eight hitting the frame (64% place strike rate). He runs just one today, and he's gone all the way to Perth, the northernmost course in the British Isles, to do it.

Mumbles Head is a twelve year old now, but age didn't stop him winning this race last year as an eleven year old. His form appears to have tapered off in recent starts, and it's possible he's regressive now. But it's also possible his mark has been managed for a repeat tilt at this good prize. He won it off a handicap rating of 129 last year, and went up to as high as 142. Just a few runs later, and he's 'magically' back on 129, the same as last year.

His form here at Perth is, ahem, 1111, which gives cause for optimism, and he's ridden by Tom O'Brien, who has won six times from just fourteen mounts (and been placed on another five occasions).

He's been well backed, from 7's and 6's into 5's, and that price is going too. But it's still available with Coral, Ladbrokes and Hills, BOG, so grab it while you can, win only of course.

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Aintree: Trainers To Note……..

Peter Bowen

Peter Bowen Often Does Well At Aintree....

With the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting this week Andy Newton highlights six stables that have often done well with their runners at this fixture. Read more