Double Dutch, 29th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 29th May 2015

I used an old football cliché, today I could use the catchphrase of Paul Calf, alter-ego of Steve Coogan, after yesterday's poor show.

In race 1, I had Fond Memory to beat Guiding George, but they came home the otrher way round in 2nd and 3rd places, but well beaten by 6 and 26 lengths respectively.

Our runners in the second race were much closer to each other, though. In fact they couldn't be separated and a dead heat was called. Unfortunately they dead heated for third, a length and three quarters off the pace.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Guiding George : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Fond Memory : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Hubertas : DH 3rd at 11/4 (adv 9/2)
Retro Valley : DH 3rd at 6/1 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
587 winning selections from 2047 = 28.68%
185 winning bets in 530 days = 34.91%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1061.50pts
Returns: 1170.50pts

P/L : +109.00pts (+10.27% ROI)


I need better from these on Friday...

3.45 Newcastle:

Deauville Dancer sets the standard here, having finished last season off with a hat-trick of handicap successes at 1m6f and 2m on a variety of going conditions. This tells us that he stays and won't mind if the rains appear. He's entitled to have needed a run last time out after an absence of over 8 months, but was still able to run within a head of the winner at Bath 25 days and with more progression likely, he looks the one at 5/2 BOG.

The form horse of his rivals is Longshadow, who reappeared at Doncaster five weeks ago fresh from a 7 months break and ran out as a comfortable 4.5 length winner in conditions similar to today, which do seem to suit him well, as he's 5/11 on good to firm ground, 4/8 at the trip, 2/2 with today's jockey and as a former course and distance winner on his only previous visit to this track, might prove to be a bit long at 6/1 BOG with Hills.


5.05 Brighton:

Pick A Little seems the obvious starting point here, as he seeks a hat-trick of wins inside 38 days, having won here at Brighton over 7f in late-April, before stepping up to this 1m trip for a course and distance win 24 days ago. He's up 6lbs for that latest win, which seems fair and to be honest, the way he has been running on in the closing stages suggests there's more to come.

The 6lb rise is negated by the booking of Edward Greatrex, who actually takes 7lbs off, which should keep Pick A Little very competitive and with Edward riding well at the moment, things point to a 2/1 BOG win here today.

You could makes cases for and against most of his rivals here today, but I'm going with Gannicus as the Plan B. Jockey Martin Dwyer rides the quirky course well, including getting this horse over line as a winner in a similar course and distance contest last time out. There's a 2lb rise to contend with for that effort, but the way he rallied after being headed late on showed he might well have something in reserve and was just doing enough on the day.

He's well suited by the small number of runners here, with both career wins coming from the two races of 7 or fewer runners. Both his wins came on left handed tracks and closer inspection shows that he's 2/3 in Class 5 contests on turf over today's trip, making Gannicus of at least moderate interest at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Deauville Dancer / Pick A Little @ 10.40/1 (14/5 & 2/1 : Betbright)
Deauville Dancer / Gannicus @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : Bet365)
Longshadow / Pick A Little @ 19.31/1 (11/2 & 85/40 : Betbright)
Longshadow / Gannicus @ 34.75/1 (11/2 & 9/2 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2014

Arkose failed to land the spoils for us on Thursday afternoon, I'm afraid. He was headed after a mistake 2 from home and didn't really get going again enough to make a late challenge.

The final result was a 4th placed finish at 4/1, longer than I'd anticipated if I'm honest.

I'm avoiding the damp turf for my next runner, which features in the...

3.30 Southwell:

Where I've got a stack of inter-related stats to back up the selection of Pick A Little, who was an 11/4 shot on Thursday evening when I wrote this piece!

1. Top weighted males aged 4-6 running in Classes 5-7 on the All-Weather in races for 4yr olds and above only. In the last three years, such horses who won last time out and are priced between 13/8 and 8/1 in the follow-up race, went on to win 40 of 138 races. A strike rate of 29% generating profits of 73.75pts, an ROI of over 53%.

Of the 138 runners, the record at Southwell was 11/27 (40.74% SR) for 32.05pts (+118.7% ROI) profit.

2. Top-weighted males in all-weather, class 5 to 7, 4yo+ handicaps whose previous race was within the last three weeks (but not one day ago!) and they either won or finished in the first home within a length of the winner also perform well next time out. In the same 2011/13 timeframe as above, these males when priced at 6/1 or under have won 83 out of 270 races (30.74% SR) for level stakes profits of 60.93pts (+22.57% ROI).

When applied to races here at Southwell only, the figures read 25 winners from 55 (45.45% SR) for 30.61pts (+55.65% ROI).

3. Last year, horses that ran on the all-weather within 30 days of a win which came after at least three consecutive unplaced efforts fared very well indeed. When turned back out at an SP of 6/1 or under, they were successful in doubling up 29.9% of the time. This comes via a record of 58 winners from 194 and generated level stakes profits of 69.22pts, a 35.7% increase on stakes.

4. Top rated (official BHA ratings) 6 yr old males running in class 5 or 6 races on the all-weather at the same class or dropping a grade from the last handicap outing have a strike rate of 18.6% in the last three years (20.6% last year). This is derived from 77 winners from 414 runners for 162.98pts (+39.4% ROI) profit. Last year's figures were 28/136 for 76.81pts (+56.5% ROI).

The three-year figures for Southwell are 16/67 (23.9% SR) for 32.33pts (+48.25% ROI) with 2013 producing 6 winners from 20 for 22.37pts profit.

All of the above criteria fit for Pick A Little here today and as one of only two runners in the race to have tasted success in their last seven races added to the rebooking of Robert Tart to ride, I'm happy to back this one.

So, it's a 1pt win bet on Pick A Little at 11/4 BOG with Paddy Power for me, but I did write this just before 6.30pm on Thursday evening, so you might want to...

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Stat of the Day, 4th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 04/04/13

Stat of the Day: 04/04/13

Stat of the Day, 4th April 2013

Banna Boirche was never really in the hunt yesterday, he ran too far from the head of affairs for my liking in a very competitive race. The handicapper will have been pleased, however, as only three lengths separated the first nine runners. Unfortunately for us, our mount was at the rear of that 9-runner pack.

There's apparently some racing in the Liverpool area today, but it's another spin on the polytrack today for a six furlong, Class 4 handicap where ten runners are set to contest the...

4.40 Lingfield

Whilst looking through the cards/stats this morning, I noticed that Martin Lane doesn't ride for Michael Blake very often, but when they pair up the results are generally very good.

In fact, they have only come together on seven occasions in the past with a record of 3148111,  four wins from seven giving 33.5pts profit and five successful E/W bets for a return of 46.9pts. So, it was an eye-opener to see them matched up again this afternoon with Pick A Little.

Martin has ridden this horse for Michael once before, in a 16/1 win on the horses last appearance, just over 3 weeks ago. That was at Kempton over today's trip and he stayed on gamely that day. He is up 3lbs for that win, but looked like he still had more to give and as this is Martin Lane's only ride of the day, we can be sure he'll also be giving it all in a bid to pick up some extra wages!

As for Pick A Little himself, this may well be the 5 yr old's course debut, but he has already shown that he's no mug on the all-weather. Six wins (31.6%) from nineteen so far with him making 23.2pts for his followers have shown his preference for the surface (he's only 3/19 on turf!). At today's trip of 6f, his all-weather record improves to 4 wins from 11 (36.4%) with profits of some 22.2pts (+201.8% ROI) and whilst he won't have it all his own way today, any repeat of last time's performance will see him very close today.

As this is a tougher contest that his recent win and the increase in weight comes into consideration, there's plenty of scope in the market for an E/W bet. I've just taken 19.5 /4.8 on betfair, but 12/1 BOG is widely available this morning. so we'll take that as our official advice. For your preferred bookmaker, simply...

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