Posts

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Chepstow : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8 (Towards rear, headway over 4f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

A pretty simplistic approach today as suggested by the racecard...

We've got a 4 yr old filly who ran really well in defeat LTO when beaten by a length at a higher grade a fortnight ago at Newmarket. Erissimus Maximus was a further length behind her that day and he has since gone on to win at this grade at Haydock a week ago, whilst Chitra, another 4 yr old filly, who was also behind her has since stepped up to Class 4 and was only beaten by half a length last night.

So, with the form of that race seeming to be working out, getting to go off the same mark dropping down in class is another positive for the selection, but let's now got back to the racecard for our supporting data.

As well as showing her form, age, class movement, days since last run and that unaltered mark (OR) of 75, we also see where I'm getting my numbers from. The C1 & C5 icons are repeated in the Trainer Stats report and my saved QT Angle says that Michael Attwater is one of my trainers to look out for here at Bath, but why?

Well, that 10 from 43 record here over the last five years is solid enough to hang a bet on, when allied to what I've already said the horse. but what interests me of Michael's 10 from 43 here  is that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 4/1 are...

all of which were over 5/5.5 furlongs and also include...

  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 7.73pts (+128.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3 from 4 (75%) for 6.32pts (+158.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.54pts (+227%) in June/July

I told you it was a simplistic approach today, but I think there's enough here...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (although a couple of firms were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!