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Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

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Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

 

2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 11th March

MARKET RASEN – MARCH 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £56.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (First Drift) & 1 (Ballyvic Boru)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Rio Quinto) & 3 (Florry Knox)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Master Of Finance), 5 (Yourholidayisover) & 3 (Roxyfet)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (The Ogle Gogle Man), 5 (Iskabeg Lane) & 3 (Shanty Town)

Leg 5 (4.10): 12 (Aaron Lad), 3 (Head To The Stars) & 1 (Skipthecuddles)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Pennywell), 2 (What A Diva) & 9 (Flemerina)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Providing the relevant claimer can call on all five pounds of his allowance, FIRST DRIFT might be able to get the better of BALLYVIC BORU under these conditions.  CASH TO ASH could outrun his odds to take care of the other contenders.

Favourite factor: Three of the last seven renewals have been won by favourites, whilst the biggest priced winner during that period was returned at just 4/1.

 

2.30: RIO QUINTO and FLORRIE KNOX stand out from the small crowd in this short field event, the two runners being listed in order of preference.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/5 favourite duly landed the odds.

 

3.05: YOURHOLIDAYISOVER is one of the more likely ‘outsiders’ on the card which could actually score this afternoon, albeit the senior runner in the field might be pushed to get the better of MASTER OF FINANCE at the business end of the contest and (possibly) ROXYFET.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 market leader secured a Placepot position, though beaten by a 9/1 chance on the day.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Miss Conway (good)

 

3.35: The 7/1 quote in the trade press about THE OGLE GOGLE MAN always looked a tad fanciful, with 11/2 being a more logical price from my viewpoint.  ISKABEG LANE represents Sue Smith with a definite chance of extending her good run of results, whilst SHANTY TOWN is another consider over your breakfast/Sunday brunch.  The handicapper should be able to sleep easier in his/her bed tonight having potentially caught up with Knocknamona at last.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Market Rasen card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/5—Iskabeg Lane (good to soft)

 

4.10: Seven-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals and with vintage representatives AARON LAD and HEAD TO THE STARS hailing from the in form yards of Dr Richard Newland and Henry Daly respectively, this pair are the first names on the team sheet, followed by another vintage raider with each way claims, namely SKIPTHECUDDLES.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have obliged, whilst the 5/2 second favourite got the better of the market leader close home on the other occasion.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Doesyourdogbite (good)

1/2—Molly Childers (good to soft)

 

4.40: Sean Bowen won all four of his rides at Hereford on Saturday and having secured that 699/1 accumulator, the pilot will be riding with an amazing amount of confidence for one so young.  Sean climbs aboard WHAT A DIVA for his dad holding an obvious chance, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of PENNYWELL and FLEMERINA.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders have secured Placepot positions via two renewals thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—What A Diva (soft)

1/8—Milly Baloo (soft)

1/3—Flemarina (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3—Oliver Greenall (0/2) – 1/4 +2

3—Micky Hammond (1/9 – loss of 3 points) – 8/57 +12

3—Sue Smith (1/17 – loss of 12) – 9/81 – loss of 47

2—Jenny Candlish (1/7 – loss of 1 – 6/47 – loss of 23

2—Susan Corbett (1/16 – loss of 4) – 1/22 – loss of 10

2—Harry Fry (1/8 – loss of 6) – 5/23 – slight loss

2—Donald McCain (0/8) – 7/98 – loss of 28

2—Olly Murphy (4/17 +9) – 4/17 +9

2—Jonjo O’Neill (4/38 – loss of 26) – 35/220 – loss of 62

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 0/3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/10 +6) – 8/39 +6

2—Mark Walford (2/22 – loss of 13

2—Evan Williams (1/3 +2) – 4/16 – loss of 1

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £51.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 1st February

WINCANTON – FEBRUARY 1

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.50 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 12 (Aardwolf) & 5 (Molineaux)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Persian Delight), 3 (San Pedro De Senam) & 2 (Valhalla)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Drops Of Jupitor), 6 (Jubilympics) & 8 (Rosemary Russet)

Leg 4 (3.00): 3 (On The Road), 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 4 (Here’s Herbie)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Siruh Du Lac), 2 (Kayf Adventure) & 1 (Vic De Touzain)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Unioniste)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: I fully understand why the bookmakers are only offering odds on prices about MOLINEAUX in the dead of night, though it would take a brave investor to pile in too heavily on a horse which faces its tenth assignment as a maiden.  Warren Greatrex looks the main threat here with the in form trainer having declared AARDWOLF who reached the heady heights of 93 on the level as a winner of three races.  Not beaten far at Pontefract on soft ground on one occasion, Richard Johnson’s mount should handle conditions as well any of his rivals whereby at the odds of offer at 11/4, AARDWOLF would be the marginal call.  If that price drifts too much over the next few hours however, my interest from a win perspective would be diluted.

Favourite factor: The first two (odds on) favourites had prevailed at odds of 1/4 & 8/11 before the next market leader could only plod home in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 6/1, 14/1 & 10/1.  Thankfully, the race reverted to type last year when the 5/4 favourite obliged.

 

1.50: As winners on heavy ground, SAN PEDRO DE SENAM and VALHALLA are entitled to plenty of respect, though this could be the chance for PERSIAN DELIGHT to make up for lost time as an eight-year-old having only tackled seven assignments to date, two of which were successful.  All three runners are included in my permutation but that said, I would like the latter named Paul Nicholls raider to score, if only to see how good the Lucarno gelding might have been if avoiding injuries down the years.  Maybe it’s not too late in the day for PERSIAN DELIGHT to pick up some decent prizes from here on in.

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Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (9/4**, 5/4, Evens & 10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3—Persian Delight (soft)

 

2.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, yet no vintage representatives were involved twelve months ago.  That is not the case this time around however, with eight of the nine entries representing the vintage!  Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong just now and though Solstice Twilight will struggle to become involved at the business end of the contest from my viewpoint, stable companion DROPS OF JUPITOR will go close to extending the trainer’s recent tally which stands at 6/10. That said, this ground will be softer than when she has scored before, whilst a new trip is also tried for the first time whereby the trade press quote of 4/6 looks plenty skinny enough.  JUBILYMPICS and ROSEMARY RUSSET boast claims on the best of their form, whilst Kayley Woollacott (Dinos Benefit) will prefer the peace and quiet to the hubbub at Cheltenham on Saturday. This is her (south-west) manor however, whereby there will be a massive ovation for Kayley and the team if the mare can lift this prize.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst favourites came to the gig on a five timer two years ago, only for the 11/10 market leader to find the 6/4 second favourite too strong close home.

 

3.00: Bryony Frost takes her only booked ride (until Sunday at the earliest at the time of writing) aboard CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK and with Lizzie Kelly aboard another horse in the next race with similar (decent) claims, the ladies could well show the boys the way home, as was the case at Prestbry Park on Saturday of course.  There is (at least) one potential thorn standing in her way here as ON THE ROAD is re-routed to timber following two efforts over the larger obstacles of late.  Proven on heavy ground (gold and silver medals via three relevant assignments to date), the Evan Williams raider would go very close here if back to his best.  Lucy Gardner (Here’s Herbie) and Bridget Andrews (Hurricane Hollow) also have rides in the race, making the girls 4/6 chances to land the spoils between them before the form book is taken into account.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader (frustratingly) finished fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position in the process as did last the next 15/8 favourite.  The following 13/8 (Paul Nicholls trained) market leader duly obliged before last year’s 11/4 favourite fell when moving into contention.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Captain Cattistock (soft)

 

3.35: Three of the five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-8 and with the projected heavy conditions in place, it would come as no surprise if the Siruh Du Lac went mighty close with Lizzie Kelly still offering great value for her three pound claim.  Remarkably, this is Lizzie’s first ride since winning on Agrapart at Cheltenham on Saturday and for some reason, SIRUH DU LAC is her only mount for the foreseeable future – wake up trainers!  That said, VIC DE TOUZAIN is too big at 12/1 in a place this morning, whilst the ground has come right for KAYF ADVENTURE and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished ‘in the three’ (exact science) to date. The statistics include two winning favourites which were both returned at 9/4.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on card:

1/2—Kayf Adventure (heavy)

1/1—Le Boizelo (heavy)

 

4.15: I have made the point several times before that Hunter Chase events have the best record in terms of winning favourites under either code of the sport and with the conditions of this event hugely favouring UNIONISTE, the trend will surely be extended in this grade/company.  Anyone who knocks the exchanges should take into the account the ‘insurance’ that we ‘Potters’ can take out if we have successfully made it through to the final leg of our favourite wager, especially when we can ‘lay back’ at odds of around 1/6 to at least ensure that we are in a ‘no lose’ situation on the day if need be.  UNIONISTE would be giving this pair an additional 15 pounds+ in a handicap event, whereby the Paul Nicholls raider represents ‘banker’ material, given the opportunity of ‘insurance’ if we need it.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the frame, though we have had to wait until the last two years for the (8/13 & 4/9) market leaders to oblige from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (3/13 – loss of 1 point) – 9/65 – loss of 24

4—Paul Nicholls (6/34 – loss of 4) – 80/245 – loss of 55

4—Colin Tizzard (6/44 (loss of 21) – 27/225 – loss of 72

3—Philp Hobbs (2/10 – loss of 10) – 23/153 – loss of 38

3—Neil Mulholland (2/20 – loss of 13) – 13/141 – loss of 51

2—Gary Moore (1/7 – loss of 4) – 3/43 – loss of 23

2—Jeremy Scott (2/12 +1) – 10/101 – loss of 43

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 5/32 +13

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £231.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,688.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Southwell: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday May 1

BATH – MAY 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,037.80 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 5 (Hurricane Alert), 2 (Captain Ryan) & 17 (Jeanie’s Place)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Sfumato), 6 (Mutawakked) & 1 (Poet’s Society)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Secretfact), 2 (Flying Bear) & 4 (Powerful Dream)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Rock Of Estonia) & 2 (Joe’s Spirit)

Leg 5 (4.35): 1 (Mornington) & 4 (Sellingallthetime)

Leg 6 (5.10): 8 (The Quarterbeck) & 3 (Hallingham)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Bank Holiday Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: There has been overnight money for JEANIE’S PLACE and I will add the outsider into the Placepot equation, alongside the likes of HURRICANE  ALERT  and CAPTAIN  RYAN in a race which will not require a great deal of winning.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals before last year’s 8/11 market leader finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Bath record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/8—Lucky Clover (good to firm)

5/18—Captain Ryan (3 x firm, good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—Compton Prince (good to firm)

1/2—Buyauq (good to soft)

 

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2.50: The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whereby the bottom two horses are eliminated from my thoughts in this ‘dead eight’ event.  Roger Charlton saddled the first winner of the new season at Bath a few weeks ago (his only runner at the track this term to date) and given that his last four runners have won (as have five of his last six), SFUMATO is the first name on the team sheet.  Brian Meehan also saddled his only runner at the meeting in this event, with MUTAWAKKED representing the trainer who has won with both of his raiders at Bath this season.  Mark Johnson sends just one runner to the track on Monday whereby POET’S SOCIETY will be expected to snare some of the prize money on offer, if only to pay the diesel bill.  By the by, if you have never seen the Robin Williams film Dead Poet’s Society, you have missed out on one the very best films ever made about the education system, in my humble opinion.

Favourite factor: The last four favourites have snared two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst claiming Placepot positions.

 

3.25: Frank The Barber is put in as third favourite in some lists this morning though it’s as well to point out that all six winners to date carried far more weight that the five-year-old has been allotted.  Four of the six winners thus far have scored at 28/1-16/1-14/1-10/1 whereby you should ‘keep your powder dry’ from a win perspective from my viewpoint, with yours truly offering Placepot types such as SECRETFACT (unlucky as Windsor last week) FLYING BEAR and POWERFUL DREAM to give us a run for our money.  I am invariably suggesting that you should be on your guard against ‘false information’ in this business and a bizarre comment has been posted in the trade press this morning.  The ‘expert’ on hand suggests that Swendad likes this course and distance, little wonder considering that his record at Bath is 1/16!  Swendab might win who knows, though that is not the point I am making.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/2**) winner thus far.

Bath record of course winners in the third race:

2/5—Secretfact (2 x good to soft))

1/4—Powerful Dream (firm)

1/16—Swendab (good to firm)

 

4.00: ROCK OF ESTONIA and JOE’S SPIRIT will do for me against the field.  Lulu Stanford boasts recent stats of 3/5 and will be riding the latter named Michael Bell raider with plenty of confidence.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.

 

4.35: MORNINGTON and SELLINGALLTHETIME should snare this ‘win only’ race between them. I apologize for the lack of content but my I am having to use my touchscreen to write up these last few races.

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have finished in the money, statistics which include two winners via five renewals.

Bath record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

5/24—Sunny Future (3 x firm, good & good to soft)

 

5.10: THE QUARTERJACK won this event back in 2014 and given his three course victories have been gained on good through to soft ground, the forecast rain will be appreciated by the relevant connections.  Light drizzle has been falling for much of the night (I live fifteen minutes from the course) and with more forecast throughout the day, the anticipated firm ground might not be in evidence by the time this event is contested. HALLINGHAM is rated as the main threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/6—The Quarterjack (good – good to soft – soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Bath card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season following two meetings + profits/losses accrued:

3—Richard Hughes (2/4 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Jeremy Gask (0/1)

3—Malcolm Saunders (0/3)

2—George Baker (0/1)

2—Brian Barr (No runners)

2—Milton Bradley (0/3)

2—Richard Hannon (3/6 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/2)

2—Roger Ingram (No runners)

2—Joseph Tuite (0/2)

2—Charlie Wallis (0/1)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £85.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Windsor: £4,124.10 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Kempton (NH): £296.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Warwick: £55.80 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaces

Placepot Pointers – Monday April 17

PLUMPTON – APRIL 17 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend: Meeting abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 1 (Flugzeug) & 2 (Miss Oscarose)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Most Celebrated) & 3 (Masterson)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Perfect Timing), 4 (Little Windmill) & 2 (Lemon’s Gent)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Ryeolliean), 1 (Holbrook Park) & 3 (Ding Ding)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Pearl’s Legend), 3 (Lou Vert), 4 (Starkie) & 2 (Gores Island)

Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Sir Hubert) & 3 (Intifadah)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Much depends on the pace in this event because surely the connections of FLUGZEUG will want Kevin Jones to press on here with MISS OSCAROSE anything but a sure stayer, even under these fast conditions.  Seamus Mullins has raided this Easter weekend to good effect down the years and his four inmates ran well yesterday whereby the even money quote in places about FLUGZEUG would make some appeal if (conveniently) ignoring the fact that eleven assignments have slipped by since the Silver Patriach gelding registered his fourth victory here at Plumpton fifteen months ago.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

3/17—Flugzeug (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/3—Miss Oscarose (good to soft)

 

2.25: MOST CELEBRATED has done precious little wrong to date and though a shower or two would not go amiss I’ll wager, Neil Mulholland’s raider should score in this grade/company without too much fuss.  Neil saddled a couple of winners on Easter Monday last year and MOST CELEBRATED can get the day off to a good start for the yard.  MASTERSON is preferred to East Indies from a value for money perspective for the forecast call, if that’s the way yoo intend to play the contest.

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Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—East Indies (good to firm)

 

3.00: Much depends on the participation of yesterday’s winner LITTLE WINDMILL if for no other reason, his liking for this surface should take him close again, albeit this looks a tougher contest.  Connections of PERFECT TIMING have also been waiting (seven months) for these decent conditions to emerge though naturally, we have to take his fitness on trust to a fashion.  LEMON’S GENT is preferred to The Mumper relating to the other two declarations.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

2/2—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

3.35: DING DING certainly likes it here though I cannot help but think that softer ground would have given Sheena West’s raider a better chance, though his Placepot credentials are sound enough to warrant his inclusion in my Placepot permutation.  More likely winners from my viewpoint on this ground include RYEOLLIEAN and HOLBROOK PARK, albeit the latter named Neil King raider enters my ‘last chance saloon’ today.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Ryeolliean (good)

3/8—Ding Ding (Good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—Money Talks (good)

 

4.10: PEARLS LEGEND is absolutely ‘thrown in’ according to the gospel of yours truly or at least the top weight would be, with a little moisture in the ground and seemingly in better form.  Rated ten pounds lower than when last winning in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham, the problem remains that nine assignments have passed since that Prestbury Park success though if the ten-year-old is ever going to win a race on slightly faster conditions than ideal, this in surely the contest.  Paul Nicholls secured an 11/2 double with his two runners at the track yesterday whereby the chance of his lone representative LOU VERT has to be respected.  STARKIE and GORES ISLAND are perfectly capable of going close on their day whereby all four horses will be included in my Placepot mix.  I note that PEARLS LEGEND is as big as 5/1 in a couple of places but as short as 7/2 elsewhere.  I can understand both quotes given the reasons stated above.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/5—Gores Island (good)

1/1—Starkie (good to soft)

 

4.45: Any of Gary Moore’s trio could oblige I guess, though with Richard Rowe’s last two runners having won, SIR HUBERT makes some appeal at around the 8/1 mark this morning.  The booking of Niall Madden for the Tom Symonds raider INTIFADAH also catches the eye whereby Gary might be thwarted one way or another in the Placepot finale.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

8 runners—Gary Moore (45/253 – loss of 25 points)

3—Neil King (10/68 – loss of 17 points)

3—Neil Mulholland (6/59 – loss of 17 points)

2—Linda Jewell (7/95 – loss of 23 points)

2—Sheena West (13/92 – loss of 5 points)

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

35 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £48.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Fakenham: £439.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Huntingdon: £90.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Market Rasen: £87.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Redcar: £1,827.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

There was no meeting at Wolverhampton on Easter Monday in 2016 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday January 10

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 10

 

This is a new meeting on the calendar

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.00: 6 (Missed Approach), 1 (Casse Tete) & 4 (Label Des Obeaux)

Leg 2 (1.30): 8 (The Nipper), 4 (Peggies Venture) & 1 (Westerbee)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Song Saa) & 1 (Themanfrom Minella)

Leg 4 (2.30): 4 (Druid’s Folly) & 2 (May Hay)

Leg 5 (3.00): 4 (Top And Drop) & 1 (Coole Charmer)

Leg 6 (3.30): 11 (Arden Dennis), 4 (Act Now) & 3 (Alberto’s Dream)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.00: MISSED APPROACH represents Warren Greatrex who not only has his team in good form, the trainer also boasting a terrific record here at Lingfield during the study period as you can see below.  The seven-year-old beaten favourite is worth another chance here with his seasonal debut behind him now, with connections possibly having most to fear from CASSE TETE and LABEL DES OBEAUX.

 

1.30: WESTERBEE defends an unbeaten (2/2) record at this venue, taking into account an NH flat race.  There’s a chance that his record will remain intact, though only if THE NIPPER fails to overcome the form of his last couple of outings which followed some fine bumper victories.  If Warren’s raider can get back to that type of form, connections of his rivals will have plenty to worry about.  PEGGIES VENTURE is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.

Record of course winners in the second race:

2/2—Westerbee (soft & standard - NH flat race)

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2.00: Tom George has secured 57 points of level stake profits since the start of August via 33 winners and having secured a 34/1 double from just three runners on Saturday, Tom still has his team in fine form.  SONG SAA is the stable representative this time around, Tom’s only runner at the meeting.  THEMANFROM MINELLA could prove to be a real threat, whilst LORD HEATHFIELD is expected to fill the bronze medal position.

 

2.30: Another trainer to have kept the home fires burning successful this autumn/winter is Fergal O’Brien who saddles DRUID’S FOLLY, a previous heavy ground winner whereby if the ground deteriorate at all, Paddy Brennan’s mount should not be inconvenienced too badly.  MAY HAY is another soft/heavy ground performer who looks to be the main threat from my viewpoint.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

2/3—Sea Wall (2 x heavy)

1/6—Beau Lake (soft)

 

3.00: TOP AND DROP is the lone Venetia Williams runner on the card and with 99.9% of her stock improving half a stone and more for plenty of give in the ground, Liam Treadwell’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  Petite Power has been well beaten under the projected conditions unfortunately, whereby the main danger appears to be COOLE CHARMER.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Better Days (good to soft)

1/2—Remember Forever (good to soft)

 

3.30: As reported in my columns regularly, handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum distance have the worst favourite record under either code of the sport and this ‘three mile’ event looks likely to produce another unlikely winner.  That said, ARDEN DENNIS might prove to be difficult to kick out of the frame, with ACT NOW and ALBERTO’S DREAM also expected to figure prominently from a Placepot perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (11/81 – loss of 12 points)

5—Seamus Mullins (8/43 – Profit of 60 points)

4—Dai Williams (0/2)

3—Alan King (4/26 – loss of 10 points)

2—Michael Blake (1/8 – lossof 1 point)

2—Steven Dixon (0/7)

2—Chris Gordon (4/36 – loss of 21 points)

2—Warren Greatrex (9/20 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Diana Grissell (0/10)

2—Simo Hodgson (0/3)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/29 – loss of 20 points)

2—Daniel O’Brien (0/4)

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/8 – loss of 6 points)

2—Nigel Twsiton-Davies (5/24 (Profit of 14 points)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

Placepot pointers – Sunday July 3

AYR - JULY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £114.90 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 6 (Street Of Dreams) & 8 (The Begum)

Leg 2 (2.55): 6 (Gworn), 5 (Biff Johnson) & 9 (Henpecked)

Leg 3 (3.30): 1 (Miningrocks), 2 (Latin Rebel) & 8 (Bushtiger)

Leg 4 (4.00): 6 (Beautiful Stranger), 1 (Gold Flash & 11 (Haidees Reflection)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Le Chat D'Or), 4 (Finn Class) & 9 (Dubai Dynamo)

Leg 6 (5.10): 10 (Mystical KIng), 7 (A J Cook) & 8 (Red Forever)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page - Includes unique Ayr ratios

 

2.25: Saeed Bin Suroor described STREET OF DREAMS as a really nice horse eighteen months ago, intimating however that we would have to wait for a long time to see the Shamardal representative on a racecourse.  The day has finally arrived and with Saeed having won with one of only two raider at Ayr during the last five years, I'm inclined to row in with the newcomer.  Just like on her debut, Ralph Beckett's filly THE BEGUM takes on another entire field of colts/geldings and she ran well enough at Newbury to suggest that this long journey will not be without reward at the end of the contest, whereby a Placepot position is up for grabs at the very least.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite snared a toteplacepot position by finishing second in a 'short field' event two years back, before the even money market leader won twelve month ago.  New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to race for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.

2.55: Three of the four winners thus far have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-3, as have seven of the ten horses to have secured Placepot positions. One of this year's six 'qualifiers' via the weight trend is BIFF JOHNSON who is trained by Keith Dalgleish who has saddled two of the last three winners of the contest.  GWORN has scored on this type of ground at Ayr on two occasions and the five time gold medallist looks sure to figure prominently, possibly alongside HENPECKED.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had finished out with the washing before last year's 7/2 favourite snared a Placepot position by claiming a silver medal.

Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:

2/8--Gworn (good to soft & soft)

2/6--Henpecked (2 x good to soft)

3.30: Three of the four winners have carried 9-4 or more two victory though if we adhere to the trend this time around, just two horses are set to fight out the finish, namely MINING ROCKS and LATIN REBEL.  The first named (Declan Carroll trained) Lawman raider socred on heavy ground last time out and a repat of that effort under the same five pound claimer (Phil Dennis) might be good enough for the four-year-old to follow up successfully.  If the weight trend goes base over apex this time around, BUSHTIGER would be my choice.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position thus far via three renewals, and that was by dead heating for the main prize in one of the two divisions of the race twelve months ago.

4.00: Keith Dalgleish has won the last two (of three) renewals with horses returned at 12/1 & 11/2, whilst an 8/1 inmate finished second in the other event.  BEAUTIFUL STRANGER and GOLD FLASH are the two relevant inmates on this occasion, though they will both have to overcome (brief) weight trends if they are to score.  All three winners have carried 9-7 or less whereby HAIDEES REFLECTION is included in the analysis and though I would not have a bet from a win perspective, this trio will represent yours truly on Sunday.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/7--Beautiful Stranger (good)

1/7--Haymarket (good to soft)

2/8--Haidees Reflection (good to firm & soft)

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3/13--Dark Crystal (2 x good to soft & 1 x good to firm)

4.35: Six of the eleven entries have won and with the three time Ayr winner getting his ground, LE CHAT D'OR might have been selected from a win perspective though the fact that he has not put back to back successes together to date will mean that my wallet remains well and truly closed.  That does not detract from his Placepot opportunity however and along with FINN CLASS and DUBAI DYNAMO, Paul Mulrennan's mount enters the overnight mix.

Favourite factor: Both (3/1 & 13/8) favourites had obliged before last year's 9/4 market leader finishing nearer last than first, missing out on a toteplacepot position.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

2/5--Two For Two (2 x good to firm)

1/5--Finn Class (good)

1/4--Ingleby Angel (heavy)

3/8--Le Chat D'Or (2 x soft & 1 x good to soft)

1/14--Dubai Dynamo (good)

1/2--Nicholas T (good to firm)

5.10: For additional stats and facts about the amateur riders in this event, drop down to the foot of the column to glean what could turn out to be vital information.  All three winners have carried 9-4 or less with half (five of the ten) of the field qualifying via the weight trend in the race.  MYSTICAL KING demands attention if you follow the advice in the opening sentence, whilst the chances of A J COOK and TAKAHIRO are also respected.  The reserve nomination is awarded to RED INVADER.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot thus far (no winners).

Record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:

1/5--Vallerta (good to firm)

3/13--Blue Sonic (3 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ayr card on Sunday:

8 runners--Jim Goldie (6/37 at Ayr this season - winners at 33/1-7/1-6/1-9/2-4/1-7/2)

6--Michael Dods (1/13 - winner at 8/1)

6--Lina Perrett (0/20)

5--Ruth Carr (3/16 - winners at 16/1-9/1-4/1)

5--Keith Dalgleish (2/22 - winners at 7/2 & 3/1* - also see 'ovreview' below)

5--Alistair Whillans (0/8)

4--Richard Fahey (2/11 - winners at 8/1 & 5/1)

4--Iain Jarnine (3/9 - winners at 5/2*-5/2*-7/4*)

3--Tim Easterby (0/2)

3--Marjorie Fife (1/4 - winner at 10/3*)

3--Kevin Ryan (1/14 - winner at 11/4**)

3--R Mike Smith (0/9)

2--Ron Barr (---)

2--Rebecca Bastiman (0/3)

2--Declan Carroll (0/1)

2--Shaun Harris (1/1 - winner at 8/1)

2--Kristin Stubbs (0/3)

+ 11 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year: 

Market Rasen - £3.80 - 7 favourites - 4 winners & 3 placed

Ayr - see stats above, whilst Keith Dalgleish secured a 116/1 double on the Ayr card last year (5 runners declared on Sunday)

 

Ayr overview:

Five year flat record of the amateur jockeys booked in the 5.40 event:

15/105--Miss Joanna Morgan (Mystical King)

6/84--Mrs C Bartley (Secret Millionaire)

5/40--Mrs R Wilson (Red Invader)

3/75--Miss Becky Smith (Perfect Words)

2/16--Mr B James (Takahiro)

2/44--Mrs V Davies (A J Cook)

1/12--Miss E Easterby (Penny Royale)

1/35--Miss Helen Cuthbert (Red Forever)

0/1--Mr J Waggott (It's Time For Bed)

0/2--Miss C A Dods (Reflation)

0/10--Mr Benjamin Stephens (Bronze Beau)

 

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday May 10

BEVERLEY – MAY 10

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £563.10 (6 favourite: No winners- 3 placed- 3 unplaced)

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (La Asamoda), 3 (Roaring Rory) & 1 (Bit Of A Lad)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Orewa) & 2 (Book Of Poetry)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Final Venture), 14 (Tilsill) & 13 (Windforpower)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Count Montechristo) & 9 (Pumaflor)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Haraz) & 2 (Fawaareq)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Like No Other), 1 (The Major) & 8 (Livella Fella)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00:  LA ASOMADA looks well in at the weights in the opening event in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  David Barron's Arabian Dream filly has finished second three times via six assignments to date and if she is ever going to get her head in front where it matters most, this is an ideal opportunity.   ROARING RORY and BIT OF A LAD are the most obvious dangers in an exceptionally weak contest.

Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include two (15/8) winners.

2.30: There are contrasting conditions (unless the heavens open) for course and distance winner OREWA to cope with, though Brian Ellison's Helmet raider was very impressive on debut when scoring on soft ground.  Trap three is a decent enough draw and with the sire having won with four of his five runners to date, Helmet stock appear to be juveniles to take very seriously this term.  Newcomers BOOK OF POETRY and MAJOR JUMBO could prove to be the main dangers.  Before this race was changed from a maiden to a novice event this year, some really impressive winners went on to record a number of great victories as the following sentences confirm. 2012 winner (Top Notch Tonto) was always going to struggle to follow in the footsteps of the first two winners of this event, namely Caspar Netscher and Galtymore Lad.  Caspar Netscher won two Group 2 events as a juvenile (‘Mill Reef’ and the ‘Gimcrack‘) and added Newbury’s ‘Greenham’ trial event as a three-year-old. Galtymore Lad subsequently won two Conditions events whilst finishing runner up three times in fiercely competitive events at first class venues.  To be entirely fair to Top Notch Tonto, the Thousand Words gelding went on to land a competitive Ayr Nursery event later in the year, before landing three contests in a four race period late in 2013.  The 2013 gold medallist Supplicant was scoring on his debut before going on to secure the silver medal in Royal Ascot’s ‘Windsor Castle’ event.  Later in the year, Richard Fahey’s raider landed a hat trick, with and all these impressive results are listed to ensure that you follow this year’s winner closely.  Last year's winner was also trained by Richard Fahey, the winner (Lathom) going on to win Newbury's 'Super Sprint' at odds of 28/1!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Beverley card, 'new' in the sense that races changing from maidens to novice status are deemed to be inaugural events by the BHA.

Beverley record of course winners in the second race:

1/1--Orewa

3.00: 33/37 toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-4 or less and before focusing on more logical winners, I would not put anyone off a small each way punt on FINAL VENTURE in another race on the card which fails to get the pulse racing.  Although plenty of the represented trainers have saddled winners during the last fortnight at the time of writing, the aggregate strike rate of 8.5% (19/223) fails to impress. Course and distance winner TILSILL could be well in off a handy mark if the relevant claimer can call on all seven pounds, whilst WINDFORPOWER snared the bronze medal when returned as the beaten favourite in one of two divisions of this contest twelve months ago.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to MAJESTIC MANANNAN.

Favourite factor: Seven of the 15 favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) via 12 renewals.

Beverley record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2--Taffetta

1/2--China Excels

1/11--Tinsill

2/8--Incomparable

3.30: Eight of the nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 whereby we have twelve of the fourteen horses to assess.  My short list consists of COUNT MONTECHRISTO, Brian Ellison's dual purpose entry REGAL WAYS and three time (fast ground) winner PUMAFLOR.  COUNT MONTECHRISTO was made favourite on his last four assignments last terms and finally earned a deserved win to wrap up his season following four successive funner up efforts.  Kevin Ryan's raider is an interesting declaration, given that he is asked to carry just one pound more than when scoring by six lengths at Hamilton on good ground.

Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

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Beverley record of course winners in the fourth contest:

3/7--Hulcet

2/6--Border Bandit

4.00: HARAZ has run well on his last three efforts under fast conditions when beaten by and aggregate of seven and a quarter lengths and with David O'Meara having started the season so well here at Beverley (see stats below), Daniel Tudhope's mount is the first name on the team sheet.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of HEIR TO A THRONE and FAWAAREQ.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statics which include four winners.

4.30: Eight of the last ten winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which unfortunately eliminates just the one horse on this occasion. The pick of the ten suspects on this occasion will hopefully prove to be beaten favourite LIKE NO OTHER, top weight THE MAJOR and LIVELLA FELLA.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five winners.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday:

6--Kevin Ryan (0/9 at Beverley this season)

5--Brian Ellison (2/4)

3--Michael Bell (0/2)

3--Tim Easterby (0/9)

3--Richard Fahey (2/11)

3--Mark Johnston (1/12)

3--David O'Meara (4/8)

2--Michael Appleby (0/3)

2--Rebecca Bastiman (0/3)

2--David Brown (--)

2--Tony Coyle (0/3)

2--Keith Dalgleish (0/2)

2--Scott Dixon (0/1)

2--David Loughnane (0/3)

2--Ollie Pears (0/3)

2--Bryan Smart (0/1)

2--Alan Swinbank (1/5)

2--Nigel Tinkler (0/3)

2--Mark Tompkins (--)

2--Tracy Waggott (0/3)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview: 

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Sedgefield: £26.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

Southwell (NH): £74.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Wincanton: £34.40 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

Other meeting: Brighton

 

Beverley Overview: 

Leading trainer at Beverley this season: 

4/8--David O'Meara (6/1-11/2-5/1-7/2) - 3 runners on Tuesday: Ray Donovan (2.30) - Hard To Handel (3.30) - Haraz (4.00)

Record of represented trainers in two-year-old races during the last five years:

2.30 at Beverley on Tuesday:

8/29--Brian Ellison (Orewa)

12/57--Mark Johnston (Book Of Poetry)

16/92--Richard Fahey (Carson City)

0/3--Steph Hollinshead (Commander Blue)

6/41--Kevin Ryan (Major Jumbo)

1/25--David O'Meara (Ray Donovan)

4/100--Tim Easterby (Ventura Secret)

1/23--Ollie Pears (Melaniemillie)

2/28--Bryan Smart (Sheila's Return)

 

Placepot Pointers: Friday May 6th

CHESTER – MAY 6

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last five years:

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)
2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,440.94 - 31 favourites - 9 winners - 5 placed - 17 unplaced
 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Jallota), 8 (Archie) & 2 (Sound Advice)
Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Linguistic) & 4 (Housesofparliament)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Dartmouth) & 5 (Father Christmas)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Kachy), 3 (Riflescope) & 7 (El Asronaute)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (The Hooded Claw), 3 (Navigate), 6 (Deauville Prince) & 4 (Meshardal)
Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Angelic Guest) & 5 (Golden Glimmer)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 
2.10: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 13 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last eight years - forecast landed two months ago), whilst 11 of the last 13 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals, with the two vintages havinbg totally dominated the event down the years.  Accordingly, it's difficult to comprehend why only one five-year-old has been declared this time around, with Charlie Hills (JALLOTA) (seemingly) the only trainer to have noticed the 'edge'.  Charlie's Rock Of Gibraltar gelding has not won as many races (two in total) as should have been the case, though a draw of 8/14 on Friday could be good enough to take his win/run ratio to 10%.  The pick of the four-year-olds will hopefully prove to be ARCHIE (5) and ARNOLD LANE (1), though both of those horses hail from the 'inferior' sector of the weights.  SOUND ADVICE (6) is offered up as the overnight reserve, especially as he is unbeaten (via two assignments) at the track.

Favourite factor: 

Six favourites have scored during the last 18 years, whilst seven of the 13 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via the last eleven renewals. 

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)
1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)
2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)
12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)
7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)
6-4-1 (11 ran-good)
5-6-3 (12 ran-good)
10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)
4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)
2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)
7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of course winners in the opening event:

2/2--Sound Advice
1/9--Gabrial's Kaka
1/3--Arnold Lane
 
2.40: Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event five times via the last nine races in which Aidan has been represented, with HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT (drawn 1/8) and COOK ISLANDS (8) having been offered the green light on this occasion.  A five length winner in a Dundalk maiden the last day, HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT looks to be the pick of the pair having won over this trip at the third time of asking.   That said, Ryan Moore takes the ride aboard COOK ISLANDS and it wouldn't be the first time that Aidan has won a race this side of the Irish Sea with 'the other one'.  John Gosden's LINGUISTIC won his latest Newmarket assignment in the style of a progressive horse, with the trainer having described his January foal this time last year as a "grand colt".  That said, there is no plan at present to tackle the Epsom Derby despite this being the first of three entries in 'Derby trials', with Royal Ascot's 'KIng Edward' contest being John's thought pattern at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 

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Seven market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 10 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  12 of the last 14 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. 

Chester record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/2--Kingston Kurrajong
 
3.10: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals (the vintage was not represented on one occasion), with DARTMOUTH, FATHER CHRISTMAS and course winner CYMRO being this year's relevant entries.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the overnight stage, albeit oh so marginally. That said, WICKLOW BRAVE is an interesting raider from the Willie Mullins ranks, though you are probably like yours truly in that there are some horses that you just cannot get right (you back them when they lose and they win when you oppose the said beasts), with Wuilliam Buick's mount being one of them!  Aidan O'Brien (FATHER CHRISTMAS) has snared three of the last eight contests, though no trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute (DARTMOUTH) who has saddled the winner five times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992.

Favourite factor: 

Seven market leaders have rewarded investors during the last 18 years.  15 of the last 17 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  Five of the ten market leaders during the last decade have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of course winners in the third contest:

1/2--Cymro
3.45: Nine of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more and the trend could be extended here with three of the nine runners hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.  The trio are listed in marginal order of preference as KACHY (drawn 3/9), RIFLESCOPE (4) and GRACIOUS JOHN (9).  If the handicap trend goes base over apex this time around, EL ASTRONAUTE (1) appeals as the value for money alternative option.  The Richard Fahey pair Powerallied and Birdcage were both declared to run on Thursday afternoon, after this analysis for Friday's card was written.

Favourite factor: 

Five favourites have won of late, whilst 15 of the last 18 winners scored at 8/1 or less.  Nine of the last eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame. 

Draw factor (five furlongs):

8-7 (5 ran-soft)
4-1 (6 ran-soft)
8-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-5-6 (9 ran-soft)
5-3-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-3 (6 ran-good to soft)
1-7-2 (10 ran--good to firm)
7-3-9 (8 ran-good)
3-6-1 (8 ran-good)
1-5-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-6-2 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-8-14 (15 ran-soft)
8-1-6 (15 ran-good)
11-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-7-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
4-1-5 (12 ran-good)
5-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)
5-7-2 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1--Kachy
1/2--El Astronaute
1/3--Powerallied
 
4.20: Four/five/six-year-olds have each secured two victories, whilst five of the six winners have carried weights of 9-3 or more. The weight stats eliminate three runners, four if you include a claiming scenario.  The pick of the remaining ten contenders from my viewpoint are THE HOODED CLAW (drawn 6/14), NAVIGATE (9) and DEAUVILLE PRINCE (2).  Of those drawn out in the 'car park', MESHARDAL would have entered the mix but for the negative stall position.

Favourite factor: 

Four of the six favourites have finished out with the washing thus far (no winners).  The average priced winner thus far stands at 8/1.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-2-10 (10-soft)
2-6-12 (14 ran-good to soft)
2-3-5 (13 ran-soft)
11-4-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-14-1 (12 ran-good to soft)

Chester record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/2--The Hooded Claw
1/1--Navigate
1/12--Alejandro
1/8--Deauville Prince
1/3--Fast Dancer
1/1--Kalk Bay
1/4--Captain Revelation
 
4.50: If you fancy a tilt at the Placepot on Thursday, you might be influenced by £5,565.50 dividend on this corresponding card back in 2012.  This race made all the difference that day, the frame being filled by horses returned at 25/1-28/1-33/1.  Three warm favourites won on the Placepot card (11/8-11/10-Evens), whilst five of the six win and placed horses in the other two races were returned at a top price of 15/2, the other position being claimed by a 10/1 chance.  My trio against the other five contenders in this nerve jangling 'dead eight' event consists of ANGELIC GUEST (drawn 1/8), GOLDEN GLIMMER (4) and QUEENS CODE (2).  The first named pair were only separated by a short head when both horses were making their respective debuts at Haydock, whilst QUEENS CODE could reverse placings with Dufay this time around, the latter named raider having had the advantage of a previous outing when the pair met last month.

Favourite factor: 

Eight of the last 15 favourites have won this toteplacepot finale.  Six of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

7-3-2 (8 ran-soft)
2-7 (7 ran-soft)
7-9-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
2-4-3 (8 ran-soft)
4-1-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
3-9-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
12-4-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
10-3-4 (10 ran-good)
4-5-13 (13 ran-good)
3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)
5-2-7 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-2 (6 ran-good to soft)
6-1-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-7-10 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-3 (7 ran-good)
2-1-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-1-6 (8 ran-good)
 
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Friday:

8--Tom Dascombe (7/50 at Chester last season)
5--Richard Fahey (13/99)
4--Mick Channon (2/24)
3--Charlie Hills (0/8)
3--Aidan O'Brien (2/4)
3--Kevin Ryan (3/14)
2--Keith Dalgleish (2/9)
2--Mick Easterby (2/9)
2--David Evans (2/38)
2--Mark Johnston (12/56)
2--John Quinn (2/16)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/11)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
 

General overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Ascot: £218.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
John Gosden secured a 34/1 double on the Ascot card - 2 runners there on Friday
Lingfield (A/W): £112.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Market Rasen: £65.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Oliver Sherwood 10/3 double on last year's card - Evening Stanley (1.50) - only entry
Nottingham: £166.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Ripon: £445.10 (7 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Bryan Smart secured  37/1 double on the Ripon card - 2 runners there on Friday
 

Chester overview:

FIve year history relating the last day of Chester's May meeting:

Leading trainers: 
5 winners - Richard Fahey (6/1-11/2-4/1-3/1-2/1*)
5 winners - Aidan O'Brien (11/4**-13/8*-11/8-11/10* - Evens*)
3 winners - Tom Dascombe (7/1-6/1-6/4)
2 winners - Andrew Balding (10/3* & 2/1*)
2 winners - Charlie Hills (4/1 & 9/4*)
Negative favourite ratios:
0/3--Mark Johnston
0/2--William Haggas
0/2--Ruth Carr

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 12th November 2015

Placepot pointers – Main meeting - Ludlow – Thursday 12th November 2015

 

(When I refer to placed/unplaced horses – an exact science is used relating to terms and conditions generally used by bookmakers – win and one place only in 5-6-7 runner races and 1-2-3-4 in handicap races with 16+ runners)

 

This season’s Placepot dividends at Ludlow:

10th May: £136.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

7th October: £138.40 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

22nd October: £2,234.80 (6 favourites: 3 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2nd November: £116.50 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend this season: £656.52

The best dividend (October 22nd) revolved around the three unplaced favourites which were sent off at 8/13 – 7/4 – 2/1.  Horses filled the ‘short field’ frame at 16/1 and 33/1 in the contest which witnessed the demise of the odds on market leader and that result set the tone for the meeting, given that the ‘Placepot horses’ in the other two races in which the favourite was unplaced were returned at 12/1 – 8/1 – 7/1 – 6/1 – 5/2.

This season’s leading trainers at Ludlow:

4/15: Evan Williams (5/1 – 11/2 – 8/1 – 16/1)

2/6: Fergal O’Brien (8/1 & 14/1)

2/7: Kim Bailey (8/11* & 9/2)

2/7: Charlie Longsdon (8/1 & 14/1)

Trainers who have saddled the most beaten favourites at Ludlow this season:

Two each for Dan Skelton (5/4 & 7/4) & Tim Vaughan (7/4 & 3/1)

Three of the four odds on chances have won at 8/11 (Kim Bailey) – 4/11 (Dr Richard Newland) – 4/9 (Harry Whittington).  The 8/13 beaten favourite was saddled by Nicky Henderson.

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last five years relating to this fixture:

2010: £5.30 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2011: £21.20 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

2012: £24.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

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2013: £192.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner – 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £5.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

Average Placepot dividend during the five year period: £49.94

Trainers with the most winners at this fixture during the five year study period:

7—Nicky Henderson (4/9* - 1/2* - Evs * - 11/10* - 6/5* - 5/2 – 3/1*)

4—Evan Williams (5/4* - 11/4 – 4/1 – 9/2)

Two each for Kim Bailey (9/4* & 14/1) – Henry Daly (5/1 & 7/1) – Tom George (4/9* & 9/2) – Venetia Williams (5/2 & 7/1)

 

Placepot stats and other facts at Thursday’s other three meetings

 

Taunton NH:

This is the first meeting of the season at Taunton – Popular trainer records from last season

Contrasting figures! (Total – Hurdles – Chases – Bumpers):

14/38—Paul Nicholls (8/26 – 5/9 – 1/3)

8/51—David Pipe (8/47 – 0/3 – 0/1)

4/14—Evan Williams (3/7 – 1/6 – 0/1)

4/17—Colin Tizzard (3/14 – 1/3 – N/A)

3/10—Dan Skelton (3/8 – 0/1 – 0/1)

2/13—Venetia Williams (2/8 – 0/5 – N/A)

2/21—Philip Hobbs (1/14 – 0/4 – 1/3)

1/7—Nicky Henderson (1/7 – N/A – N/A)

1/16—Harry Fry (1/13 – N/A – 0/3)

0/12—Alan King (0/10 – 0/2 – N/A)

 

Chelmsford A/W:

Three meetings in November to date:

Thursday 5th: £19.80 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

Friday 6th: £32.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

Saturday 7th: £130.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividned during the period: £61.10

 

Trainer with more than one winner this month at Chelmsford:

Eve Johnson Houghton (3/1 & 6/1)

Favourite stats:

21 races thus far in November – 9 winning favourites – 18 winners at 9/1 or less

 

Southwell A/W:

Only four meetings have been staged since the end of April – Placepot dividends:

May 18th: £454.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

July 27th: £303.00 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

August 6th: £52.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

November 3rd: £313.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend during the period: £281.37

Favourite stats in all races (beyond Placepot events) at the four meetings:

29 favourites: 11 winners – 8 placed – 10 unplaced