NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)
Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*
Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1
Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)
Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)
Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)
Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)
Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)
Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)
Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)
Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability. The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.
2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape. I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.
2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price. David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort. Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites. Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint. If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)
4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1. AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings. That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head. The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).
4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years. AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly. James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight. That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest. The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!
Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.