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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

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1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

 

7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

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1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 20th May

RIPON – MAY 20 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £26.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 86.6% units went through – 11/2 & 1/2*

Race 2: 36.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 18/1 – 4/1*

Race 3: 33.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/1 – 28/1

Race 4: 53.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 15/2 – 7/1

Race 5: 61.6% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 9/4* - 10/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* - 10/1 – 5/2

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ripon: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Coolagh Magic) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Sir Derrick), 13 (Erastus) & 1 (Cardaw Lily)

Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (We Are The World) 1 (Starlight Mystery) & 2 (Indomeneo)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Mutamaded) & 2 (Trading Point)

Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Magical Dreamer), 1 (Show Stealer) & 7 (Maureb)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Gift Of Raaj)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: This race lacks the class of the event twelve month ago which was won by a horse which went on the finish less than three lengths behind the winner of Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that COOLAGH MAGIC might be the type to score at the first time of asking, chiefly at the expense of AZOR AHAI in all probability.  Desert Lantern looks booked for third spot as there has been a lack of interest (early doors) in Dark Havana from Karl Burke’s yard.  Any money for Karl’s Havana Gold raider would add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: The inaugural race was split into two divisions, producing a successful 4/6 market leader alongside an 11/4 favourite which missed out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. Last year’s 1/2 favourite found one too good when finishing in the frame.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner events in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

2.20: High on numbers but short on class, this Class 6 race lives up to its billing unfortunately, as was the case twelve months ago, though at least the 9/2 winner was short listed by yours truly.  I can report money for SIR DERRICK overnight which is an ‘edge’ to a fashion I guess, though it took less than a king’s ransom to set the gambling wheels in motion I’ll wager.  I’ll take any help I can get however, whereby Tm Easerby’s raider is the first name on the team sheet ahead of Ruth Carr’s pair, namely ERASTUS and CARDAW LILY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

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2.55:  These three-year-old handicap races begin to take on more significance over the next few weeks leading up to Epsom/Royal Ascot with the majority of the runners now having had their respective seasonal debut appearances.  Mark Johnston is rarely out of the headlines north of Watford and it’s worth reporting that four of Mark’s last runners have won, whereby I’m offering an each way chance to STARLIGHT MYSTERY who tops the weights.  WE ARE THE WORLD and INDOMENEO are added into the Placepot equation.  Sylvestre De Sousa rides the latter named raider for Richard Fahey.  Although the pair have only teamed up to a 16% success rate down the years, they have produced level stake profits of 16 points via the relevant six winners.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4, 11/4 & 6/4) winners.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/1—Starlight Mystery (good to firm)

1/1—Indomeneo (soft)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the last renewals (and six of the last ten) whereby the chance of TRADING POINT (attempting a hat trick here) is very much respected.  That said, David O’Meara’s representative runs into MUTAMADED who is defending an unbeaten 3/3 record at Ripon and with Ruth Carr boasting level stake profits of 68 points down the years at this venue, I’m siding with her Arcano gelding.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 14 favourites (four winners) have snared Placepot positions via eleven renewals to date.  Six of the gold medallists have been returned at 4/1 or less, accompanied by three 16/1 chances alongside 10/1 & 15/2 gold medallists.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

3/3—Mutamaded (2 x good & soft)

1/2—Fayez (good)

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have a good record in this contest (the score stands at 5-6 via 15 renewals), whereby one horse from each vintage will do for starters, namely MGICAL DREAMER and SHOW STEALER, the pair being listed in order of preference.  MAUREB is starting to attract money as I begin to close out the column whereby Tony Coyle’s Excellent Art mare is entered into the Placepot mix.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Pennypot Lane.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have scored via 15 renewals to date, whilst eight market leaders failed to finish in the frame.

Record of the two  course winners in the fifth race on the card:

2/4—Pennypot Lane (good & good to soft)

1/2—Silver Starlight (good)

 

4.30: TIGRE DU TERRE finished second in a warm Listed event as a juvenile and has already proved that he has ‘trained on’ whereby this should be a formality for Richard Hannon’s Le Havre colt.  Richard secured a 23/1 double on last year’s corresponding card but is content to send Silvestre’s mount on his lonesome for the long journey today.  GIFT OF RAAJ should win the battle for secondary honours, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Ripon card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 19th May

NEWBURY – MAY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £131.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 46.4% units went through – 3/1* & 4/1

Race 2: 25.7% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 – 7/1 – 11/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 7/2* - 9/1

Race 4: 67.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 5: 48.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* & 20/1

Race 6: 27.5% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 & 15/2 (2/1)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Shababby), 4 (Juliet Capulet) & 3 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Crystal Ocean) & 2 (Raheen House)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Chief Ironside), 7 (He’s Amazing) & 3 (Dukhan)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Addeybb), 4 (Beat The Bank) & 12 (Suedois)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Itstheonlyway) & 6 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Stream Song), 4 (Crystal Hope) & 2 (Arcadian Cat)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 (Carnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last eight contests, though it’s a big ask for 33/1 chance All Out to improve the ratio this time around in what I consider to be the best race on the card. That would not be difficult given the line up in the Lockinge this season which media commentators will no doubt describe as a wonderful renewal!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that SHABAABY, JULIET CAPULET and EQTIDAAR should all be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, the trio having been listed in order of preference.  Owen Burrows (Shabaaby) secured a 13/2 double on the Newmarket card yesterday, his recent ratio now standing at 4/9.  Accordingly, 8/1 looks a tad too big about Owen’s Kyllachy colt, albeit the ground remains an unknown factor given his two soft going successes to date.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last thirteen years during which time, ten gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.25 (Aston Park Stakes):  Four-year-olds have won 11 of the last 20 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives CRYSTAL OCEAN and RAHEEN HOUSE look sure to go close this time around.  The odds are extremely cramped about the first named Sir Michael Stoute raider, though the 11/2 quote (across the board early doors this morning) fopr RAHEEN HOUSE represents a potential each way play given the 11/8 place price in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have reached the frame (five winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before the 2016 gold medallist reared its ugly head at 14/1.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/4—Scarlet Dragon (Good to firm & good to soft)

 

3.00: The last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby CHIEF IRONSIDE (drawn 1/11), HE’S AMAZING (9) and DUKHAN (2) will represent yours truly in my Placepot permutation on Saturday.  Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced five of the last seven winners, gaining at Placepot position between them on all seven occasions.  Last year’s 8/1 winner was described by yours truly as “the clear pick on this occasion”.  Connect (the complete outsider in the field) would have been considered had there been moisture in the turf.

Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 16 of the last 26 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):

1-7-12 (13 ran-soft)

3-4-5 (15 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

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3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.40 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last eight winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117-122 into the contest (average ratio of 125).  I suggested two years ago that the contest represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the ‘117 winner’ and with this year’s runners offering an average figure of 113, much can be said for this latest renewal.  This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 25/1 chance, namely SUEDOIS, albeit the lack of a recent run tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  As short as 14/1 in two places this morning, 25/1 is available with Betfair and Paddy Power at the time of writing.  Horses towards the top of the market that grab my attention include the improving four-year-old raiders ADDEYBB and BEAT THE BANK.  This is a Group 1 race in name only.  Only if Limato were to win well could we carried away with the performance of the winner, though investors in Henry Candy’s representative know that seeing out the mile trip is taken on trust.  That said, connections couldn’t have wished for an easier opportunity, especially on ground that will offer the Tagula gelding every chance of lasting home.  From a Placepot perspective however, Harry Bentley’s mount will not offer value for money, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The last 20 winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (eleven winning favourites), whilst twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.  Seven of the last eleven market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded three years ago), as have ten favourites during the last fifteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-4-9 (8 ran-soft)

6-7-2 (12 ran-good)

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winner in the 'Lockinge':

1/2—Limato (good to firm)

 

4.15:  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 400 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 25 relevant gold medallists.  Richard has won this event in each of the last two years and has offered the green light to his dual winner ITSTHEONLYWAY on this occasion.  Bookmakers are likely to take THE IRISH ROVER on I’ll wager, given that Aiden O’Brien’s January foal ‘slept in the stalls’ at Ascot recently before making up the ground when the race had already been as good as lost.  A break on even terms can surely result in a Placepot position today, at the very least.

Favourite factor:

Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (2/1) favourite from a win perspective.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-8 (6 ran-soft)

5-1-6 (8 ran-good)

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dave Dexter (good to soft)

 

4.50: John Gosden has claimed two of the last seven renewals of this fascinating Placepot finale and the popular trainer saddles STREAM SONG this time around.  It’s worth noting that John was responsible for the beaten (2/1) favourite in the race twelve months ago however, whereby I feel duty bound to include CRYSTAL HOPE and ARCADIAN CAT in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last thirteen years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 18th May

YORK – MAY 18 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £106.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,948.46 - Favourites stats - 44 in total - 17 winners - 11 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.8% units went through – 4/1** - 4/1** - 16/1

Race 2: 40.8% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 5/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 45.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 40/1

Race 4: 77.85% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 15/8*

Race 5: 46.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 5/1 – 8/1

Race 6: 19.8% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 14/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 10 (No Lippy), 3 (Carrie’s Vision) & 16 (Strings Of Life)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (Sheilha Reika) & 6 (Threading)

Leg 3 (3.30): 7 (Stradivarius) & 1 (Desert Skyline)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Valcartier), 3 (Kings Gift) & 9 (Master Carpenter)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Crafty Madam), 3 (Pepita) & 4 (Ifubelieveindreams)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Koditime), 5 (Areen Faisal) & 7 (Marnie James)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eleven of the thirteen winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 with the likes of NO LIPPY and CARRIE’S VISION making plenty of appeal this time around towards the top of the market.  Mark Johnston appears to have a typical MJ streetfighter in NO LIPPY who took control early doors in the ‘Lily Agnes’ last week and was not for passing.  This is a tougher assignment obviously, though there is every indication that Mark’s Oasis Dream filly can land the hat trick en route to even better things later in the season.  The other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint is STRINGS OF LIFE in an absorbing start to the final day of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Six of the 15 favourites (thirteen renewals) have obliged to date, whilst ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

9-2-7 (13 ran-soft)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via twelve renewals during the last thirteen years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  The opening line of the stats immediately below suggest the race could develop between the market leaders SHEIKHA REIKA and THREADING, the horses being listed in that order via slightly more strength on the exchanges overnight for the first named Roger Varian trained representative.  Those looking for an alternative each way play (though this is a ‘short field’ event) could do worse than consider the overnight ‘rag’ in the contest’ namely JULIET FOXTRET at around the 12/1 mark.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 25 of the last 28 horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the thirteen favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

2-5 (6 ran-soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

York record of the two course winners in the second race:

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1/1—Awesome Tank (good)

1/1—Threading (good to soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ (thoroughbreds were built for speed rather than endurance from my viewpoint) and I will simply be looking to get through the Placepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that STRADIVARIUS has plenty to offer by way of past results, whilst those of you looking for an each way/Placepot interest in the contest might consider the likes of DESERT SKYLINE and CALL TO MIND.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 recent favourites have finished in the frame, whilst seven market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/12—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

1/1—Max Dynamite (good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available Placepot positions. Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms two years ago and the pick only four 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be VALCARTIER and KINGS GIFT.  That all said, there is the small matter of MASTER CARPENTER having been declared to attempt to defend his crown successfully after blowing his rivals away in no uncertain fashion twelve months ago.  Don’t listen to too much talk of that race having been contested of soft ground, as Rod Millman’s Mastercraftsman raider has won on the course under good conditions as well. Carrying two pounds less on this occasion, Red’s seven-year-old demands Placepot respect at the very least, especially as 7/1 was still on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 23 favourites have secured Placepot positions in recent times, though only three market leaders have won down the relevant years.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

5-3-6-19 (20 ran-soft)

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of the course winner in the field:

2/4—Master Carpenter (good & soft)

 

4.35: Ryan Moore has a number of each way chances on the card, arguably none more so than CRAFTY MADAM in this contest.  Given Ryan’s 6/18 record for Clive Cox down the years, CRAFTY MADAM is the first name on the team sheet ahead of other PEPITA and a potential each way player in IFUBELIEVEINDREAMS.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 4/1, 7/2 & 11/4.  Detectives are still searching for the unplaced favourite that was sunk without trace.

York record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/6—Dark Intention (good to soft)

 

5.05: 23/38 horses to have gained Placepot positions (via eleven renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with six qualifying runners to consider this time around (jockey claims are taken into account) in a sixteen strong field, potentially at least. KODITIME (another Cox/Moore runner on the card), AREEN FAISAL and MARNIE JAMES get the vote.

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-1-14 (12 ran-soft)

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Marnie James (good to firm)

1/3—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 17th May

YORK – MAY 17

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £10.865.10 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £349.40 (10 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 6 unplaced)

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,007.23 - Favourite stats: 49 in total - 10 winners - 13 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.4% units went through – 13/2 – 12/1 – 10/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 6.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 (Win only – 11/8)

Race 3: 43.5% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

Race 4: 40.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/2* - 8/1 – 11/1

Race 5: 6.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/1 (5/6)

Race 6: 37.2% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 – 10/1 – 9/2 (7/2)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 9 (East Street Revue), 17 (Royal Brave), 5 (Copper Knight) & 3 (Edward Lewis)

Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Coronet) & 5 (Mori)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Roaring Lion), 1 (Cross Baton) & 4 (Mildenburger)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Original Choice) & 3 (Cape Byron)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Roussel), 3 (Declarationofpeace) & 9 (Main Desire)

Leg 6 (5.05): 10 (True Belief) & 5 (Kessaar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eight of the ten winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 10/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 103-87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104-90 (average of 94).  Eight of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst four of the last eight contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of EAST STREET REVUE (only horse running off 94 today), ROYAL BRAVE (pick of the two seven-year-olds) and COPPER KNIGHT.  The reserve nomination is awarded to EDWARD LEWIS.

Favourite factor: Six of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

11-16-8 (12 ran-soft)

4-15-10-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of the eleven course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Gracious John (good)

1/3—Major Jumbo (good to soft)

1/3—Copper Knight (good)

1/1—Holmeswood (good)

1/8—Desert Law (good to soft)

2/6—East Street Revbue (2 x good)

1/13—Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/4—George Dryden (good)

1/5—Excessable (good to firm)

1/5—Carlton Frankie (good)

1/5—Rosina (good to firm)

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other six contests. The pair of six-year-olds (Chain Of Daisies and Smart Call) are passed over accordingly, hopefully leaving CORNET and MORI to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Horseplay is booked for the bronze medal from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

York record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four of the last 14 winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  John Gosden has won the last two renewals of this event when represented and the popular trainer would surely have been coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion but for Cracksman having been withdrawn twelve months ago because of the prevailing soft ground. John has declared ROARING LION (fifth in the 2000 Guineas recently) and CROSSED BATON, winner of his last three races, the last of which was the Epsom ‘trial’.  MILDENBURGER is a typical Mark Johnston terrier who will not go down without a fight, though WELLS FARHH GO might have needed softer conditions to slow down the opposition.  I’m not sure that James Cook will be good enough, despite this looking to be a slightly sub-standard field.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 19 market leaders have obliged, whilst eleven of the 20 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

York record of the course winner in the Dante Stakes:

2/2—Wells Farhh Go (2 x good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, whilst eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  William Haggas snared a 21/1 double on yesterday’s card and the trainer boasts definite claims here with ORIGINAL CHOICE possessing ticks on both of the trend boxes.  CAPE BYRON appears to be the main threat, whilst ISOMER has an each way chance on the best of his form.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (six winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

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12-1-9-13 (17 ran-soft)

16-8-5-11 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

York record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Custom Cut (good)

 

4.35: DECLARATIONOFPEACE looks to be the likeliest winner on the card for Aidan O’Brien having won two of his last three races to close out a decent juvenile season.  That said, we have least two home contenders with chances of keeping the prize this side of the Irish Sea, namely the ultra-consistent Charlie Appleby trained ROUSSEL and Michael Bel’s MAIN DESIRE, who could yet be anything following just two juvenile assignments.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten favourites (via nine renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include three (10/3-4/6-4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-1 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of three course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good)

1/2—Hey Jonesy (good to soft)

1/1—Main Desire (soft)

 

5.05: The two runners currently at the head of the market look set to complete my Placepot permutation of the middle day for the meeting. There appears to be plenty of confidence in both TRUE BELIEF (Charlie Appleby) and KESSAAR (John Gosden) and unless jungle drums have been beating about any of the other contenders when I have had my headphones on (which I might have missed accordingly), I’ll settle for this pair against the remaining eight entries.

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 20 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  13 of the last 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

6-10-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

1-3-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 16th May

YORK – MAY 16

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £310.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £32.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,662.73 - 45 favourites - 15 winners - 5 placed - 25 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 20.6% units went through – 12/1 – 7/1 – 20/1 – 25/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 37.2% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 6/1** - 14/1 – 8/1 (6/1**)

Race 3: 12.1% of the remaining units went through – 14/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

Race 4: 82.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* & 12/1

Race 5: 69.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 16/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 44.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 4/1 – 12/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Hamanda) & 7 (Now Children)

Leg 2 (2.55): 16 (Private Matter), 8 (Golden Apollo), 9 (El Hombre) & 12 (Orion’s Bow)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Tasleet) & 1 (Harry Angel)

Leg 4 (4.05): 6 (Highgarden) & 1 (Ceilidhs Dream)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Clubbable), 12 (Cavatina), 6 (Queen’s Sargent) & 3 (Zap)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Charming Kid) & 7 (World Order)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Four-year-olds have won the last five contests, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won ten of the last fourteen renewals.  Four horses qualify this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be HAMADA and NOW CHILDREN ahead of Tuff Rock and Contango.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty seven market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals, confirming their ‘recent’ dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result seven years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Relevant horses PRVATE MATTER (drawn 3/19), GOLDEN APOLLO (16) and EL HOMBRE (14) form my speculative ‘short list’ on this occasion.  If vintage representatives are to be denied this time around, ORION’S BOW (9) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 28 favourites have secured Placepot positions, with just three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result offered first):

8-2-1-16 (16 ran-soft)

5-9-1-4 (18 ran-good)

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of the six course winners in the second race on the card:

1/6—Terentum Star (good)

1/6—Flying Pursuit (good to soft)

2/10—Out Do (2 x good)

1/3—Golden Apollo (good to firm)

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1/4—Classic Seniority (good)

2/4—Dark Defender (good & good to soft)

 

3.30: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 13 of the last 19 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-5 during the period.  It might prove foolish to suggest that last year’s 14/1 winner TASLEET only scored on account of the soft ground, even though his two course victories tell us that moisture in the turf holds no worries for connections.  Equally however, the William Haggas raider has finished in the first two in three of his five assignments on good to firm (including one victory), whereby there should be no excuse on account of today’s conditions.  All that said, HARRY ANGEL is supposedly fit and ready for this event and has “strengthened up” tremendously well over the winter.  Unfortunately, we heard similar words for the connections of Eminent last week at Chester before investors suffered first degree burns on the Roodee.  Outsiders have a really good record in this event but I’m struggling to nominate a winner from that sector, even though Sir Dancealot remains a horse of undoubted potential.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last twenty years, though just three of the other sixteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.  Eight of the last twelve winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-12-3 (12 ran-soft)

4-9-6 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Sir Dancealot (good)

2/3—Tasleet (Good to soft & soft)

 

4.05 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won five of the last six renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his Nathanial filly HIGHGARDEN who might win this ‘trial’ with something to spare, especially when considering that Frankie’s mount is the only Gosden runner on today’s card.  It’s also worth noting that on the one occasion when John did not win the ‘Musidora’ in recent times, his raider (Woodland Aria) made amends next time out at odds of 5/4.  I invariably have plenty of respect of Peter Chapple-Hyam’s raiders when they take in races towards the top end of the events on the calendar whereby the chance of LUBINKA is respected, albeit I slightly prefer CEILIDHS DREAM as the main threat to the selection.  Give And Take is another decent filly, though one win from four assignments is not the best ratio with which to go to war in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

 

4.35: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last nine years and two of his three entries boast Placepot claims at double figures from my viewpoint, namely CLUBBABLE and ZAP.  Horses from the other end of the market have a terrific record however (see stats immediately below), whereby Kevin Ryan’s market leaders COMMANDER HEN and QUEEN’S SARGENT are respected alongside CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via just ten contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.  The winners offer level stake favourite profits of 22 points which is something to behold!

York record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Zap (good to soft)

1/2—International Man (good to firm)

 

5.05: There is not a lot of money queuing up on the exchanges for any of the contenders if truth be told which gets the red lights flashing, though the likes of CHARMING KID and WORLD ORDER should land the Placepot dividend for us if we were live going into the final leg of our favourite bet.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (six winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (nine years ago).  The other twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-2-1 (8 ran-soft)

3-9-6 (9 ran-good)

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 13th May

PLUMPTON – MAY 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £163.10 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 52.8% units went through – Evens* & 16/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 4: 45.5% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 20/1

Race 5: 47.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 17/2 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 6: 40.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* (Win only event – 4 ran)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Jumping Jack) & 2 (Crushed)

Leg 2 (2.45): 10 (Sweet’N’Chic), 6 (Good News) & 5 (Now Listen here)

Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Ballycoe), 3 (Darebin), 2 (The Fresh Prince) & 1 (Red Hanrahan)

Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Makethedifference), 3 (Kalaskadesemilley) & 9 (Austin Fryers)

Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Whoshotwho) & 3 (Mellow Ben)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (King Cool), 4 (Remember Forever) & 5 (Hill Fort)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last thirteen contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  Unfortunately, last year’s only vintage representative was beaten but this time around, you have no chance of losing money because no five-year-olds have been declared. The stats become even more frustrating when you digest the fact that Gary Moore is only conspicuous by his absence despite saddling two of the last three winners! Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that JUMPING JACK should at least secure a Placepot position if he fails to win which is doubtful because at the time of writing, CRUSHED (the horse I suspected to be the main danger) is friendless on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (four winners), whilst 30 of the 40 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.  Gary improved those stats last year by scoring with the even money favourite.

 

2.45: This is the first of five races which witness 11 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, over a quarter of the list of declarations in those events.  This was the race which helped the Placepot to produce a half decent dividend last year.  That said, the pot was worth £6.62 (after deductions) following the first two legs and with a win only race later on the card, holders of live Placepot units might have thought they were in a for a great dividend later in the day.  Back to basics by informing that seven of the last eight winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which suggests that SWEET’N’CHIC should be there or thereabouts, though the 7/2 trade press quote looks a tad skinny.  KEEP TO THE BEAT is one of the other two qualifiers via the weight trend to consider, though more logical winners include GOOD NEWS and NOW LISTEN HERE according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  Four of the last five winners scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1, whilst a 20/1 chance filled the runner-up position twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Cassivellanus (heavy)

 

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3.15: This was the Placepot finale last year when the favourite won at 11/8 in a win only event.  Out of interest, the winner was 6/4 in terms of the remaining Placepot units going into the final leg.  These win only Placepot events tend to reflect the starting prices unless there are real outsiders in the contest.  One recent event I focussed on concerned a horse which was backed down to 7/1 from double those odds (without winning) which was a 52/1 chance via Placepot percentages!  With fifteen of the last sixteen winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just four) in the line up, with BALLYCOE being the exception on this occasion.  As the outsider of the party in the dead of night, I’m certainly not ruling out his chance, whereby I will include all four runners before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 15 renewals of this contest have been won by market leaders.  Half (8/16) of the jollies have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ballycoe (good)

 

3.50: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals (vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around) though arguably their main hope AUSTIN FRYERS has plenty to prove following an indifferent set of ‘recent’ results.  Either way, preference is for NAME THE DIFFERENCE (subject of overnight support) and KALASKADESEMILLEY.  GIN AND TONIC would have also made the short list but for noticing that his ratio of placed efforts between April and September stands at 0/11.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via seven renewals to date, statistics which include four successful (7/2, 2/1, 15/8 & even money) market leaders.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/4—Austin Fryers (good)

1/3—Brother Bennett (good to soft)

 

4.25:  DING DING was third in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting two years ago before finishing last of the seven finishers in this event twelve months back.  Sheena West’s seven year old registered a course ratio of 3/9 before that contest prior to the updated figures you can see below.  Nicky Henderson saddled a well beaten runner in the contest last year, whereby slight preference is for WHOSHOTWHO and MELLOW BEN over Brave Eagle who might represent poor value for money, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:

4/14—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—San Pedro De Senam (heavy)

2/16—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

 

4.55: A teaser of a finale in our closing event, with my short list consisting of KING COOL, REMEMBER FOREVER and HILL FORT, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished second (claiming Placepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before the 10/3 favourite went on the missing list two years ago.  Thankfully (for favourite backers), the 13/8 market leader obliged twelve months on.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Remember Forever (good to firm)

3/20—Flugzeug (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/8—Roparta Avenue (good)

1/5—Charming Lad (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

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23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 11th May

CHESTER – MAY 11

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £11.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,034.10 - 43 favourites - 13 winners - 11 placed - 19 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.5% units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/5* - 5/1 – 25/1

Race 3: 29.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/2 – 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 70.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 2/1* - 15/2

Race 5: 58.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 80.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* - 11/4 – 12/1

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Arcanada), 2 (South Seas), 15 (Mickey) & 12 (Penwortham)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Eminent) & 1 (Convey)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Pivoine), 2 (Dark Red) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Magic Circle), 9 (Who Dares Wins), 8 (My Reward) & 7 (Fun Mac)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Kachy) & 5 (Growl)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Kazawi) & 7 (Jabbaar)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last ten years - forecast landed three years ago), whilst 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years.  Despite his stall position out wide, money has come in for ARCANADA overnight and with Tom Dascombe’s raider possessing ticks in both of the (age/weight) trend boxes, I’ll join in by including the Arcano gelding in my Placepot mix.  Similar comments apply to SOUTH SEAS who being slight better drawn in stall nine would be my idea of the each way play in the opening contest.  From the vintage stats, I’m also offering win and place chances to MICKEY and PENWORTHAM.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst nine of the fifteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

8-2-4 11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (11 ran-good)

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)

1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)

2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)

6-4-1 (11 ran-good)

5-6-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)

16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)

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3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)

7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen contests whereby EMINENT is the first name on the team sheet, albeit Martyn Meade’s Frankel colt is too short for me at around the 8/11 mark to become involved with from a win perspective.  Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared CONVEY though that said, only one vintage representative has scored in the last nineteen years.  I wonder if it’s purely coincidental that the winner Maraahel hailed from Michael’s stable?

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (11 winners).  13 of the last 19 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, with vintage raiders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.  POVOINE and TITI MAKFI are the only relevant raiders this time around, with the pair listed in marginal order of preference on account of the draw (three over ten).  Ed Dunlop’s Tadleel was a poor flop for us yesterday having crawled out of the stalls from a wide draw which made it impossible to become involved at the business end of proceedings.  Ryan Moore takes the rdde about stable companion DARK RED here with obvious Placepot credentials at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame via thirteen renewals, statistics which include three (11/2, 9/4 & 10/11) winners.

 

3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as eight of the last eleven results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event five times during the last decade, whilst ten of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of MAGIC CIRCLE, WHO DARES WINS AND MY REWARD.  WHO DARES WINS would seemingly have plenty to do from stall fifteen but Ryan Moore’s 44% record when riding for Alan King via seven winners convinces yours truly that it would be foolish to leave him out of the equation. The reserve nomination is awarded to FUN MAC who runs here from a better mark than when finishing third last year from an inferior draw.

Favourite factor: Three of the last nineteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

2-3-13-7 (17 ran-good)

4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with a 25/1 chance being responsible for preventing total domination in the contest thus far.  KACHY is the lone (but worthy) representative on this occasion, with Tom Dascombe’s raider as short as 5/4 in places at the time of writing.  Such cramped odds overnight made it possible to obtain an each way play on GROWL, though those odds are disappearing as I near the end of Thursday’s offering.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4 & 6/4) winners.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

3-2-1 (9 ran-good)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

 

4.35: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, with KAZAWI and JABBAR expected to land out third Chester Placepot this week, albeit slight losses were incurred via the permutation yesterday.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (10/3) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 10th May

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1

Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1

Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)

Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)

Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!

 

1.50:  EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:

2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)

2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)

1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)

2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)

2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)

3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)

1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)

Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally.  That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years.  Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw.  Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

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5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon.  The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years.  17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Duretto (heavy)

1/1—Muntahaa (good)

 

4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further.  YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-1 (7 ran-good)

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Al Destoor (soft)

1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)

1/1—Never Surrender (good)

1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 9th May

CHESTER – MAY 9 

 

Seven year Placepot details on day one of the Chester May meeting:

2017: £25.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

2016: £31.30 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £16.30 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £68.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £1,492.00 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

2012: £110.00 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £69.60 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £259.09 - 50 favourites - 14 winners - 14 placed - 22unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.5% units went through – 4/1 – 12/1 – 11/2 (2/1)

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & Evens*

Race 3: 65.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 4/1 – 10/1

Race 4: 29.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 9/1 – 25/1 – 5/1 (4/1) – This race was the Chester Cup which is being contested on Friday this year

Race 5: 62.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – Evens* - 12/1

Race 6: 91.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 9/2 – 11/4

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Linou), 8 (Sir Prancealot) & 5 (Kinks)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Magic Wand) & 1 (Award Winning)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Spoof), 2 (Looks A Million) & 8 (Showmethedough)

Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (Hunting Horn) & 5 (Ispolini)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Argentello) & 2 (Baritone)

Leg 6 (4.35): 7 (Last Page), 5 (Requinto Dawn), 4 (Mr Top Hat) & 6 (Ginbar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 ('Lily Agnes'): Potentially, this is the second largest field for the ‘Lily Agnes’ during the last twenty years whereby the draw (heavily favouring low numbers) could well play an important role.  That said (explaining why bookmakers make vast profits year on year) the 2013 result of horses drawn 8-9-10 filling the frame in a twelve runner field defied belief at the time.  The following year, the winner was boxed 10/10 so don’t get too carried away with what media ‘experts’ will be telling you today!  SIR PRANCEALOT is drawn out in stall eight but there has been money for the David Evans trained raider, whilst it’s worth noting that no handler has bettered his score of saddling two winners in the race during the last decade.  That all said, her stable companion LIHOU looks the more obvious winner on paper and there was plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  If David and his team is to be denied this time around, KINKS could prove to be the joker in the pack, despite being housed out in the card park.  I see no value in No Lippy who is a top price of just 2/1 as dawn breaks.  Trap four is a superior position to break from, though only if you have enough pace to bag the rail, especially with Mark Johnston only having scored with one of his last eighteen runners.  No Lippy won well at Doncaster at the first time of asking but at 13/8 in places, those layers are suggesting that Mark’s February foal has a 38% chance of winning.  That scenario looks far too tight for my liking.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the last nineteen years.  Seventeen of the last nineteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less.

Draw factor' (five furlongs – most recent results at the top):

3-4-8 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

10-9-3 (10 ran-good)

8-9-10 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-2-8 (8 ran-soft)

2-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (7 ran--good)

5-7-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (6 ran--good)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-2-6 (10 ran-good to soft)

1-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

3-2-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

8-1-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

 

2.25 ('Cheshire Oaks'): Aidan O’Brien has won this event five times during the last decade, though the trainer adds confusion into the scenario on this occasion having declared three runners. Not all of Aidan’s winners have looked at ease around the twists and turns of the Roodee but that said, most of them have done what was asked of them and it will come as no surprise if the trainer lands his third victory in the last four years.  MAGIC WAND and TOGETHER FOREVER are expected to represent the Irish maestro to best effect here, though John Godsen stopped the bandwagon in is tracks last year with Enabled, whereby the chance of AWARD WINNING is respected.  I’m not suggesting for a moment that John’s Dubawi filly will live up to her stable companion by any means but that said, there was a lot to like about her successful raid at Wetherby at the second time of asking recently.  Shailene could outrun her 14/1 quote if you’re looking for a big priced individual to give you a decent run from a win and place perspective.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (ten winners) during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-2 (7 ran-good)

6-3-4 (8 ran-good)

2-7-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good)

7-9-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-1 (9 ran-soft)

8-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (7 ran--good)

2-6 (7 ran--good to firm)

4-1-2 (9 ran--good)

4-6-11 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-10-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-3 (6 ran-good to soft)

1-2-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (5 ran-good)

7-6-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran-good)

 

3.00: Although this is a new race for reasons stated in the ‘favourite factor’ below, the draw stats are worth perusing. Only on four occasions during the last 20 years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a Placepot position in this event. Even though that scenario occurred for the fourth time in 2013, the next stall (three) housed the 12/1 winner.  The haul of just four gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the Placepot stat is impressive given that an average of 13 horses have contested the race during the study period. Whether the fact that the ages of the horses will make a great deal of difference relating to the draw or not, my trio against the field consists of SPOOF (trap three), LOOKS A MILLION (1) and SHOWMETHEDOUGH (4)

Favourite factor: This is classed as a new race because having been open to horses of all ages in the past, the contest is now confined to three-year-olds.

I have left the following draw factor in however, just to give you a feel of the handicap scenario over the minimum trip.

Draw factor: (five furlongs):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

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3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of the two course winners in the third event:

1/1—Billy Dillon (good to soft)

1/1—Porchy Party (heavy)

 

3.35 (Chester Vase): Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last eleven renewals and the trainer obviously intends to snare the swag here being responsible for three of the ten declarations.  I invariably question the thoughts of the trainer in such circumstances because I have to believe that Aidan is not convinced that he has a definite winner within the quartet, having paid the expenses for the others to travel over from Ireland.  That said, Aidan comes to the gig on a six-timer whereby HUNTING HORN demands to be included in the Placepot mix from my viewpoint.  Plenty of interesting horses take the Irish raiders on however, with ISPOLINI slightly preferred to Young Rascal as the main hope to prize the swag away from Aidan on behalf of the home team.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 16 years, statistics which include seven (3/1-7/4- 6/4-11/8-10/11-4/9) winners.

 

4.05: Well fancied runners have (aside from the 2015 result) performed well in this event and we appear to have a two horse race to consider, with ARGENTELLO and BARITONE having been declared.  Hailing from the powerful respective stables of John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute, I cannot believe that both horses will finish out of the frame.  If you fancy that an upset could be on the cards, Soldier To Follow could be worth an each way interest.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 18 winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won ten of the last thirteen contests, whilst 17 of the last 21 jollies have secured Placepot positions.  Those stats include the 1/6 (Aidan O'Brien trained) favourite in 2015, though the market leader could only finished second behind an 8/1 winner!

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

3-4-5 (9 ran-good)

4-2 (5 ran-good)

3-8 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-1-4 (11 ran-good)

7-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-8 (7 ran--good)

10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-4-5 (9 ran--good)

4-10-1 (11 ran-good)

7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

6 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

4.35: 14 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of nine stones or less and LAST PAGE could create a first and last Placepot double for David Evans.  REQUINTO DAWN was the beaten favourite in the ‘Lily Agnes’ twelve months ago and Richard Fahey’s representative comes here with and place claims in this grade/company.  MR TOP HAT and GINBAR make up my short list against the field.  Rain is scheduled to arrive at around three o’clock according to the radar I have just spied and softening ground could give GINBAR a realistic chance of going well at around the 20/1 mark, despite his stall 12 positon.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period.

Draw factor' (six furlongs):

1-2-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6-7 (11 ran-good)

9-2-6 (12 ran-soft)

9-7-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-9-7 (11 ran-soft)

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)

6-8-1 (10 ran-good)

9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)

1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)

9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Finbar (heavy)

 

Record of the six course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Roaring Forties (good)

1/2—Kenstone (good)

1/13—Intransigent (good to soft)

1/3—Right Touch (soft)

1/1—Roll On Rory (soft)

1/16—Alejandro (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 8th May

EXETER – MAY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,815.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.6% units went through – 4/9* & 5/1

Race 2: 1.7% of the remaining units when through – 20/1 (Win only) – (4/11)

Race 3: 35.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 3/1 (11/4)

Race 4: 24.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4 (11/10)

Race 5: 40.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 7/4*

Race 6: 48.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 7/2 (7/4)

 

*Point of Order – Although there are no scheduled ‘win only’ races on the card, it’s as well to digest the fact that such races can have a dramatic effect on Placepot dividends, as was the case at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.

The second race on the card was won by a 20/1 chance which in Placepot terms relating to the units that went up in smoke, turned out to be a 56/1 scenario!  The ‘transparency’ was extended by the fact that two non-runners created the ‘win only’ event, units which were transferred onto the favourite via Placepot rules.

Similarly, the fourth race was won by the 7/4 second favourite, but the winner was selected by less than 25% of the clients who held remaining tickets at the time.

Just six runners are entered for the 7.50 event tonight whereby you should ensure that two runners (or more) are not withdrawn – before you place your Placepot wagers!

 

Tueday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Secret Escape) & 12 (Tillythetank)

Leg 2 (6.20): 4 (Champ) & 12 (Rockpoint)

Leg 3 (6.50): 3 (Coningsby), 15 (Eddy) & 1 (Katy P)

Leg 4 (7.20): 1 (Marquis Of Carabas), 7 (Lip Service) & 9 (Innocent Girl)

Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (The Two Amigos) & 6 (Mistress Massini)

Leg 6 (8.20): 11 (Grey Diamond), 3 (Net De Treve) & 12 (Jeremiah James)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.50: The first two races on the card appear to be ‘match events’ if early indications from the exchanges are to be believed.  It would certainly create a huge surprise/potentially massive Placepot dividend here if both SECRET ESCPAE and TILLYTHETANK finished out of the frame.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Exeter.

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6.20: CHAMP and ROCKPOINT should similarly dominate the second contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Another new event on the Exeter programme but given the strength of the projected favourites/well fancied pair of horses in each of the first two races on the card, I’m not at all sure these contests will in in place twelve months hence.

 

6.50: EDDY has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety via five assignments at this venue down the years and though I am invariable well wide of the mark relating to Sue Gardner’s runners (they win of I ignore them and flop when I take the plunge), 16/1 looks a tad over the top about EDDY who recorded the victory here on (good) going which should be in place tonight.  That said, Tom Lacey came into this meeting last year having scored with two of his previous four runners and sure enough, the horse I focussed on (in the last race this evening) obliged at 5/2.  Tom’s run of hot form is even better this year (current ratio of 16/33) and his only runner on the card runs in this event, namely CONINGSBY. My trio against the field is completed by KATY P who has the fast conditions in favour for another decent offering in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored though bookmakers have not had things going all their way, with six of the last eight gold medallists having won at a top price of 5/1.  Only one of the last six market leaders has secured a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Zero Grand (good to soft)

1/2—Just A Sting (good to soft)

1/2—Jully Les Buxy (soft)

1/5—Eddy (good)

 

7.20: Eight-year-olds won all four of the renewals when represented which suggests that the lone vintage representative MARQUIS OF CARABAS could outrun his current 12/1 odds which are in place with several bookmakers at the time of writing.  Fergal O’Brien has wasted little time in entering LIP SERVICE now that the ground has improved, whilst INNOCENT GIRL has to be included for similar (ground) reasons alongside her impressive consistency.  Harry Fry’s mare is a winner of three of her eight races on good ground thus far.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have prevailed, though the other pair of market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Casper King (soft)

1/5—Triple Chief (soft)

2/8—Bredon Hill Lad (soft & heavy)

 

7.50: As was the case in the previous race on the card, eight-year-olds have the best recent record here having secured four victories during the last decade.  This fact will offer confidence to connections of Creative Inerta I’ll wager though according to form figures, both THE TWO AMIGOS and MISTRESS MASSINI will take plenty of kicking out of the Placepot frame.  Indeed, the booking of William Biddick looks particularly significant relating to the latter named raider.

Favourite factor: The last eleven winners (in as many years) have scored at 6/1 or less, statistics which include four winning favourites.

 

8.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewal and the trade press prices of relevant declarations GREY DIAMOND and JEREMIAH JAMES should not put you off their respective chances in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Indeed, their 10/1 and 16/1 quotes look wide of the mark with likelier starting prices of around 6/1 and 9/1 (respectively) looking entirely possible.  NET DE TRVE and RUFIO are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, four of which returned at odds varying between 11/1 and 16/1.  The last five favourites have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th May

BATH – MAY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £191.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.3% units went through – 8/1 – 20/1 – 7/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 2: 44.3% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 4/1 – 5/1 (11/4)

Race 3: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* & 16/1

Race 4: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 5: 39.4% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 16.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 & 12/1 (11/8)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Karalini) & 10 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Prominna), 6 (Burauq) & 10 (Black Truffle)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Spirit Of Zebedee), 10 (Divine Call) & 6 (Dreams Of Glory)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Barbill) & 8 (Cloud Seeding)

Leg 5 (4.35): 4 (Tricksy Spirit), 2 (Rock Of Estonia) & 9 (Aquadabra)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Cent Flying) & 3 (Glamorous Rocket)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • I hope you had part of the Placepot dividend yesterday, given that we had 40p of the £512.10 dividend = a return of £216.84 – following a ‘successful pot’ at Newmarket the previous day.

 

2.15: Boasting a ratio of 7/9 here at Bath this season, Mick Channon will be coming to one of his ‘local’ tracks in confident mode and KARALINI is the only horse in the contest that punters want to know at the time of writing.  SIGNORA CABELLO is the mount of Silvestre De Sousa who has ridden three winners for John Quinn whereby the chance for this long distance traveller is respected.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Bath with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Tony Carrol has had his runners in good form for some time now and though good to soft was registered when scoring here at Bath, George Downing could be in the thick of this at the business end of proceedings aboard this Proclamation gelding who is a four time gold medallist.  Others for the melting pot include BURAUQ and BLACK TRUFFLE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Langham Vale (good to soft)

1/4—Prominna (good to soft)

2/14—Burauq (good to soft & good to firm)

1/8—Spellmaker (firm)

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3.25: Silvestre takes his second ride for John Quinn and in a weak contest, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE can surely reach the frame in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from the likes of DIVINE CALL and DREAMS OF GLORY.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/6—Compton Prince (2 x good to firm & firm)

5/27—Dreams Of Glory (2 x good to firm – 2 x firm – good)

2/11—Divine Call (good & good to soft)

 

4.00: Mick Channon saddles the second of his three runners on the card and BARBILL cannot be excluded from the mix given Mick’s record at the track this term.  At the prices on offer, Ginger Nut could be worth opposing whereby CLOUD SEEDING is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.  Last year’s race went to plan for supporters of the 3/10 market leader.

 

4.35: There will be worse outsiders on the card than AQUADBRA I’ll wager who has her first run for Christopher Mason, having been previously stabled at Mick Channon’s yard.  Talking of Mick, his third and final contender at the meeting is TRICKSY SPIRIT, whilst ROCK OF ESTONIA (winner on this card twelve months ago) completes my trio against the remaining six declarations.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite last year finished nearer last than first (sixth of eight).

Bath record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Rock On Estonia (firm)

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

5.10: CENT FLYING looks to be something of a banker in the lucky last (from a Placepot perspective), with GLAMOROUS ROCKET marginally preferred to Inuk as the main threat.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cent Flying (good)

 

Bath record of course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.45:

1/3—King Crimson (good to soft)

1/20—Swendab (good to firm)

3/21—Jaganory (firm – good to soft – soft)

4/17—Milly Jones (4 x firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.