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Placepot Picks: Salisbury, 23rd May 2013

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Salisbury Preview/ Placepot Picks, 23rd May 2013

Aargh, more banker issues, though with a very thin perm yesterday that was always possible. In truth, I could have gone much longer and still not had the last leg - 20/1 winner, 33/1 second in a novice hurdle, only two places - so we at least kept some powder dry.

Today, we'll go at the flat card at Salisbury tonight, which has some very interesting runners.

Leg 1: 6.10 - Trappy two-year-old race here, and I'm going deep. Five of the six winners of this race were having their second start, so Finflash, second at Ascot and representing last year's winning trainer is on A. I'll add the Hannon hoss, Sacha Park, as that trainer has won three of the last five renewals.

On B, I'm siding with experience, in the shape of Denby Dale, who ought to improve a lot for his first run, and Primitorio from a very good trainer. Saayerr for 2010's winning trainer goes on B too. Phew.

Obviously, with such a wide coverage, I'm looking for a good result here.

A - 2 (Finflash), 7 (Sacha Park)
B - 1 (Denby Dale), 5 (Primitorio), 6 (Saayerr)

Leg 2: 6.40 - It gets harder, not easier, as we embrace a 13 runner sprint handicap for bad horses. Levi Draper is the obvious starting point, with Richard Hughes legged up for James Fanshawe. But I'm going to swerve him, as his turf form is non-existent and this looks competitive if low class.

Last year's winner, My Own Way Home, bids to give trainer David Evans a consecutive hat-trick in the race. She needs it like a road, and should get that here. Allied to that is the fact that she's five pounds lower than when winning last year. Obvious chance.

It's very hard to fancy the well-backed Glastonberry on the strength of three turf runs - one of them in this race last year. He was in good form then (third on prior start) and yet was still beaten nine lengths. In three turf runs, against forty rivals, he's managed to beat just five! No chance on any known form. (Will probably bolt up).

Basle is in a good mark, loves conditions and is in form. Obvious chance.

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Nubar Boy can go well fresh and has won off a LOT higher than his mark here. Fair chance. I'm taking three against the favourite and the best backed horse in the race!

A - 1 (Nubar Boy), 8 (Basle), 13 (My Own Way Home)

Leg 3: 7.15 - A maiden fillies contest. Deep joy. Plenty of these have had plenty of chances, so my first thought is what could improve enough to win. Jolly, Marjong, has had less goes than many - just two - and she improved from first to second run. That second run was over course and distance on today's ground, and she was beaten 3/4L with gaps in behind. A material in a weak race.

It's Taboo has been backed, but she was dropped five pounds by the handicapper for finishing third in a maiden last time, which hardly screams improver!

Azelle drops back in trip and was closest when running over six furlongs in her three attempts. Of the rest, it's hard to make a case for most. Lady Vermeer and Last Hooray are from respected connections and are probably just not very good: it'll be handicaps for them, I'd think.

Henry Candy's Mediska was six lengths behind Marjong here last time, but is entitled to show decent improvement and can get a lot closer today.

A - 2 (Azelle), 9 (Marjong), 10 (Mediska)

Leg 4: 7.45 - Seven runners over a mile and three quarters in a handicap. The pace is with the outsiders, Achalas and Porcini, and the former could make a bold bid for shrewd connections. He makes B here. Spice Fair gets his conditions and goes on A, as does Body Language.

More B's too, with Porcini and Nordic Quest.

A - 1 (Body Language), 2 (Spice Fair)
B - 3 (Nordic Quest), 5 (Achalas), 6 (Porcini)

Leg 5: 8.20 - Good grief. It gets harder! A three-year-old handicap, with plotters galore in here. The two which really stand out are the top one, Dusky Lark, for connections who do very well when stepping horses up in trip in handicaps; and Rancher, who is by Derby winner, High Chapparal, and goes from seven furlongs to twelve furlongs!!!

Star Of Namibia also steps up in trip and has at least beaten a few horses in three starts to date. They're my three off the tee.

A - 1 (Dusky Lark), 2 (Star Of Namibia), 9 (Rancher)

Leg 6: 8.50 - Having used a lot of bullets already, I'm short stacked and into banker territory. With this race cutting up, and only two places up for grabs, it looks tricky tricky tricky (as Run DMC might say).

So, banker on Duke Of Perth and the potential to lay it for a place if the pot is shaping up well. My perm tonight is geared towards it paying plenty. If I'm wrong, it'll be a loser in all likelihood.

A - 3 (Duke Of Perth)

That leaves us with straightforward perms looking like this:

Just A's - 2 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 3 x 1 = 108 bets

All picks - 5 x 3 x 3 x 5 x 3 x 1 = 675 bets

Ticket builder optimized perm - see below.

Salisbury placepot

Salisbury placepot

Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms.

Place your toteplacepot bets with totepool directly, using the link below:

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Monday Placepot, 28th January 2013

Placepot Picks

Placepot Picks

Well, this series has started quite interestingly. In our first two attempts at the placepot, we managed to find all six winners in week one at Wolverhampton, and notch the placepot again in week two at Plumpton. Alas, on both occasions, the placepot dividend was less than perfect and my desire to publish a 'winning' combination led to more permutations than ideal, I suspect.

So, with a couple of weeks experience behind us, and after a week of quiet reflection last Monday, we'll take a bit more of a risk this week in search of a bit more reward, and slim the pemutation down to a more manageable number of lines.

Again, it's Wolverhampton that we go at, as I'm not much of a fan of Kempton's all weather circuit (read, I can't seem to find winners there!).

Leg 1 - 1.40
The first of two low grade amateur rider sprint handicaps, and that sets the tone for what could be a trappy afternoon's fare here at Dunstall Park.

This race is made more interesting by the prospect of the short-priced favourite, Hab Reeh, being a non-stayer at this six furlong distance. Whilst Hab Reeh did win a six furlong race, that was a maiden handicap on fast ground, and races don't get much worse than maiden handicaps!

In his Wolves 6f spins, he's been outpaced when trying to lead. I'm not sure if they'll send him to the front here but, if they do, I think he'll be out of the frame. However, with a couple of fancied horses now non-runners, he still has to make the ticket. He's ridden by Serena Brotherton who is one of very few jockeys that are trustworthy at this level.

I'll support him on my main ticket with the consistent Miserere Mei who, along with Hab Reeh, has the best jockey in Simon Walker. He finds winning tough, but is usually thereabouts and it would be a surprise to see him out of the top four or five again here.

Prigsnov Dancer is interesting at a price, and makes the B ticket, as does Glennten, who has run well on both starts over course and distance (including one win).

A - 1, 8
B - 2, 12

Leg 2 - 2.10
The second division of the same handicap, and we're faced with the same conundrum. Lord Buffhead, the joint favourite, looks like he much prefers five furlongs to six and, with a full field of bad pace judges charging from trap to line, he might get run off his hooves. All four of his wins have been at five furlongs, and his sole decent run over this course and distance was in a short seven runner field when he was still beaten nearly five lengths. Not for me.

Against him, I like the look of the other joint jolly in the early exchanges, Artful Lady, and also Whiskey Junction.

Artful Lady has only had two runs here and finished second, beaten a head in a seven furlong race, and then won over this trip four starts back. The pistes at Kempton and Lingfield are a bit quicker than here, and it might be that she's far better suited by the deeper dirt in the Midlands.

Whiskey Junction doesn't have an ideal draw for his like to lead style, but if the latest Carson off the production line can get him to the front, he'll take some catching. He's been in the first three in 26 of his 68 career starts, and four of his last eight. This won't take too much winning, and at least six furlongs is his trip.

A - 2, 6

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Leg 3 - 2.40
It doesn't get easier, with a non-runner here making this a seven runner contest, and therefore we only have two places to shoot at, with four horses trading at 5/1 or shorter.

Luckily, there are three which look complete no-hopers, so we can at least narrow it down to the short odds quartet. Of those, the most likely winner is Hiddon Coin, David O'Meara's all weather improver. Having his first start on the sand last time over track and trip, he readily pulled clear of the re-opposing and consistent, Windforpower. That one is quirky enough however, and has needed the considerable riding skills of champion all weather rider, Luke Morris, to get him home in his two recent wins.

Today, Joe Fanning takes over and, whilst he's a very good jockey, he doesn't know this fellow... and this fellow takes some knowing. He's capable of making the frame, but not a reliable proposition so to do. Windforpower's form is tied in closely with that of Marmot Bay, a horse which might be a tad less capable than the first named, but is a good bit more reliable.

In truth, I don't really like either of them in the context of this race, and I prefer Bill Turner's Hillbilly Boy. Bill has saddled two horses in this contest in the last four years, and both of them won. Now, that might be coincidence, as I doubt it's a race people look to when planning campaigns (!), but he at least knows what's required to win it.

Hillbilly Boy was a well beaten fifth of five on his last start, but that was his first trip to the track for six months and he's sure to have needed it. More match fit today, and dropped in grade, the Boy is the highest rated horse in the race and fully ten pounds clear of the third highest rated. As such, he gets a space on the B ticket billing, with Hiddon Coin on A.

A - 1
B - 2

Leg 4 - 3.10
A seven runner maiden, featuring exposed form versus newcomers from respected stables, makes this fiendish. On the face of it, Bouyrin has the best form in the book, and is most likely to reproduce it here. He gets tentatively scribbled onto A.

The favourite is Mark Johnston's well bred but unraced Henry The Aviator, unsurprisingly a son of Henrythenavigator. Henry cost 130,000 guineas in April last year, and that's an almighty whack of cash in the context of a race like this. If he's anything close to matching his price tag with his ability, he should win and win well. A.

It would be far from a shock if Willie Haggas' Botteen was good enough to trouble the judge first time up in this race, but I've got two bullets to fire here and I've fired them at Bouyrin and Henry.

A - 3, 7

Leg 5 - 3.40
In my personal placepot perms, I normally go with what I call 'one brave race'. This is a race in which I 'bank' on one horse making the frame for me. And today, that race will be leg five, a ten runner seven furlong handicap, and that horse will be Bussa, a highly consistent type.

Bussa has been in the first four in his last seven starts, and he acts perfectly well on this track, as he showed when just beaten a head last time over course and distance.

With the overnight favourite, Jack My Boy, pulled out (he had a car park draw), and the second favourite, Restless Bay, also having a poor draw to overcome - they start the seven furlong races here on the crown of a bend - it looks set fair for Bussa to hit the board once more, assuming the exertions of his run on Friday haven't left their mark.

Of the rest, Needwood Ridge is better than a 25/1 shot, but I'm siding with Bussa as a banker.

A - 8

Leg 6 - 4.10
Just when you thought it couldn't get any trickier, the 'lucky last' is a four runner, win only contest. With all four closely rated - and certainly closely weighted against their ratings - and all of them wearing headgear, three of them for the first time, it's anybody's guess what will happen here!

None of them have won over this trip, and only Amelia Hull has won at all..! I'm covering all of them: Amelia Hull and  Mick Dundee on A, and Handsome Stranger and Silk Scarf on B.

This means that I'm guaranteed to win a share of the pool if I get to the sixth leg with one B line or less used that in getting there. Consequently, I'll be able to insure my position in leg 5 by laying Bussa for a place, if the dividend looks worth winning.

If that last paragraph made no sense to you, don't worry. I'll explain it another day. (I did actually spend an hour and a half recording a 'how I research the placepot' video last night, only to find when I came to edit it that I'd not picked up the sound..!!!).

A - 2, 4
B - 3, 6

So, here's how the placepot looks today:

Basic Version, A’s only

2 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 = 16 bets

Basic Version, A’s and B’s

4 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 4 = 128 bets

Advanced Version, using ticket builder

This is using a 20p base stake, but you could do it for as low as 5p's. Note the weighting on tickets 1-4. Ticket 1, all A's, has a 4x weighting. In other words, I have staked this to four times my base stake of 20p (i.e. 80p per line). Ticket 2-4 have a 2x weighting and are therefore 40p per line.

Wolverhampton placepot perm

Wolverhampton placepot perm