NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:
Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)
Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)
Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1
Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)
Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2
Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle:
Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)
Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)
Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)
Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)
Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)
Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well. In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%. Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners. It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint. The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.
Record of the two course winners in the opening event:
12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals. Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around. The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case. DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet. That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.
1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls. Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms! FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.
Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around. Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives. That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter. NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms. The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.
Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:
2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date. This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER. The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.
Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/8—Good Time Ahead
3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on. For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days. I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner! Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends. Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday. This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis. My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors! Boyle blessings….
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card
Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.