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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st February

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £845.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed 3 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Awake At Midnight), 16 (Pearl Of The West) & 6 (Lord Napier)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Town Parks), 2 (Coastal Tiep), 3 (Rayvin Black) & 4 (Seymour Star)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Otter Moon) & 3 (Royal Irish Hussar)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Spider’s Bite) & 8 (The Devils Drop)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Master Of Finance), 2 (Vocaliser) & 7 (Road To Rome)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 1/3 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around.  AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT and LORD NAPIER head my overnight ratings.  For the record, six-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer though that said, money is piling up for PEARL OF THE WEST in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Perhaps that scenario is unfolding with the uncertainty of the Philip Hobbs runners just now regarding AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT.  Philip is not running many horses just now which is understandable given his 1/23 ratio this month though on the flip side, market leaders have a fabulous record in this event if Richard Johnson’s mount can cling on to favouritism.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (11/4, 7/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.

 

2.25: This new race comes under the ‘find me at the bar’ heading because as a ‘win only’ contest with little to choose between the quartet at first glance, the move is to include all four runners, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  For the record, Kerry Lee’s hat trick seeker Town Parks would be the call if I was forced to make a nomination.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Town Parks (soft)

1/1—Rayvin Black (good)

2/4—Seymour Star (2 x soft)

 

3.00: Five of the last six winners have carried 11-3 or more to victory but with jockey claims forcing a few runners under the ‘superior burden barrier’, ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR makes some appeal which might not have been the case if FIXED RATE had not been ridden by a ten pound ‘conditional’ on this occasion.  OTTER MOON just manages to keep in the right half of the handicap and the Tom George raider represents the main threat to Nicky’s 9/1 chance at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Excellent Team (good to firm)

 

3.30: It will be interest to see If Ghoohar is supported at a top price of 11/1 later this morning as there is plenty of speculative money in the positive queue on the exchanges this morning in and around ‘15’ which makes for interesting reading regarding Henry Daly’s raider, especially with the trainer having his horses in blinding form just now.  That said, HORATIO HORNBLOWER and CAPTAIN BUCK’S are more logical choices, especially if you are looking to have a bet from a win perspective whilst organising your Placepot wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Kap Jazz (soft)

 

4.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals and course winner SPIDERS BITE makes plenty of appeal here for Henry Daly and his in form team. Richard Johnson will be keen to ride another winner given that the champion jockey has ‘only’ ridden one of his last eleven mounts to winning effect, another example of how much ‘Dickie’ has also suffered with the Philip Hobbs runners generally running below par this month as stated in the analysis in the opening contest.  THE DEVILS DROP deserves the favourite tag here however, and Alan King’s representative will pose a real threat to the marginal selection if producing his best form this afternoon. CEAREAL KILLER also enters the mix, albeit as definite third choice.

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Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Spiders Bite (good)

 

4.40: There has to be a chance that the official assessor has caught up with Lake field by now and I am offering the speculative trio of MASTER OF FINANCE, VOCALISER and ROAD TO ROME against the projected favourite in our finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader trailed in last of the five finishers behind horses which filled the ‘short field’ frame at odds of 7/2 & 8/1.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) & then their five year ratios + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

5 runners—Robin Dickin (1/78 – loss of 3 points) – 3/57 – loss of 18

5—Venetia Williams (0/13) – 12/129 – loss of 75

3—Kim Bailey (8/24 +12) – 18/101 +3

3—Paul Nicholls (2/7 +2) – 7/33 – loss of 13

2—Henry Daly (4/19 – loss of 2) – 21/107 – loss of 19

2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 0/11

2—Steve Flook (0/2) – 2/35 – loss of 2

2—Nicky Henderson (4/19 –loss of 2) – 29/99 – loss of 17

2—Kerry Lee (2/6 +1) – 8/34 – slight loss

2—Donald McCain (0/6) – 3/65 – loss of 38

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 0/8

2—Alistair Ralph (1/8 – loss of 2) – 3/19 +18

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/39 – loss of 16

2—Dan Skelton (4/21 – loss of 2) – 22/99 – loss of 12

2—Pam Sly (1/1 +3) – 3/7 +10

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £4.90 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,035.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 20th February

TAUNTON – FEBRUARY 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £116.50 (7 favourites: 3 winners--2 placed--2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (The Russian Doyen) & 13 (Esprit De Somoza)

Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Chilli Filli) & 7 (Oscar Rose)

Leg 3 (3.10): 9 (Cucklington), 3 (Muffins For Tea) & 1 (Will O’The West)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Coiltte Lass), 1 (Unison) & 6 (Black Mischief)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Lillington) & 7 (Bajardo)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Black Narcissus), 1 (Odello) & 8 (Bisoubisou)

 

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: I was expecting some overnight support for the Paul Nicholls raider CHOIX DES ARMES following a wind operation for Paul’s six-year-old gelding but all the cash has been for ESPRIT DE SOMOZA from the Nick Williams yard.  There is monetary evidence (via the exchanges) that Nick’s Huntingdon winner is expected to follow up his 20/1 Huntingdon success after a fairly ordinary effort on his Sandown debut.  Whether the recent victory warrants a quote of 4/7 from Betfred/Tote is open to question, especially with another winner in the field (THE RUSSIAN DOYEN) and an interesting Dan Skelton newcomer in his Sea The Stars gelding SEA OF MYSTERY.  This race will answer a few questions either way.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings

 

2.40: Tread carefully here (see favourites stats below) because although only a few horses in the field make any appeal from a win perspective, such cash should be kept for another day aside from our Placepot interest.  The likes of OSCAR ROSE and CHILLI FILLI will surely figure in the finish at the business end of proceeding, closely followed by BIG ROBIN I’ll wager, but that’s where my interest ends outside of my Placepot permutation.  The two ‘main players’ from my viewpoint hail from the in form (respective) yards of Fergal O’Brien and Henry Daly who comes here on a four timer via recent stats of 10/27.

Favourite factor: All three (very short) odds on favourites had finished in the frame via the first three renewals, though only one had prevailed from a win perspective.  The ratio increased last year with the 15/8 prevailing from the Nicky Henderson yard.

 

3.10: Colin Tizzard secured a 14/1 double on the corresponding card two years ago whereby the win and place chances of both CUCKLINGTON and MUFFINS FOR TEA are respected.  Colin has four chances on the card and I could envisage the trainer saddling a winner or two, especially as Paul Nicholls has only declared two inmates at a venue where he has ‘run riot’ on several occasions.  I’m also adding WILL O’THE WEST into the Placepot mix, believing that this contest could blow thousands of Placepot units out of the equation heading towards the halfway stage of the card.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Nicky Henderson trained) 9/4 favourite was one of the two horses in the field which failed to complete the course in the first running of this event.

 

3.45: Five-year-olds have won four of the seven contests thus far, whilst five of the last six gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 11-1.  Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence this time around (wake up trainers), whilst UNISON is the only horse with a tick in the box via weight trends given the various jockey claims.  Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the last four years (alongside a silver medallist) whereby the chance of COILLTE LASS is respected despite the 9/1 quote by Stan James (8/1 across the board elsewhere). The reserve nomination is awarded to BLCK MISCHIEF.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame (two winners at 7/4 & 5/2**) via seven renewals to date.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Unison (soft)

1/2—Colillte Lass (good)

1/2—Our Merlin (soft)

1/52—Dovils Date (soft)

 

4.15: Ballyegan is the only horse on the Taunton card to have won at the track on more than one occasion (see stats below), though even a seven pound claimer might not be enough for the old boy to sneak into the frame, let alone win the contest.  LILLINGTON makes a great deal of appeal and it’s worth noting that there is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive exchange queue for Colin Tizzard’s final runner on the card at the time of writing.  Others for the mix include BAJARDO and (possibly) CKALCO DES LOGES.

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Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Taunton programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/4—Triple Chief (good)

1/1—Bajardo (good)

4/16—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.50: Richie McLernon rode a lovely race aboard Regal Encore for us on Saturday and I’ve a notion that the underrated pilot could go close aboard BLACK NARCISSUS in the finale.  The potential market leaders in the field hold obvious Placepot chances at the very least, namely ODELLO and BISOUBISOU.

Favourite factor: The first two favourites obliged at 5/2 & 13/8 before one of the two 13/2 joint favourites finished in the money twelve months ago without winning contest.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by stats this season (in brackets) + their five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Colin Tizzard (4/25 – loss of 4 points) – 15/107 – loss of 23

3—Nigel Hawke (1/13 – loss of 9) – 3/57 – loss of 40

3—David Pipe (1/14 – loss of 11) – 17/163 – loss of 75

3—Dan Skelton (0/13) – 10/56 – loss of 18

3—Tim Vaughan (0/14) – 8/86 – loss of 40

2—Bob Buckler (0/2) – 7/50 – loss of 15

2—Henry Daly (0/1) – 1/10 loss of 6

2—Jimmy Frost (1/6 +4) – 2.45 – loss of 24

2—Paul Nicholls (6/31 – loss of 19) – 56/184 – loss of 11

2—Jeremy Scott (2/5 +7) – 8/52 – loss of 14

2—Evan Williams (0/16) – 13/92 loss of 17

2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 9/59 – loss of 9

2—Kayley Woollacott (0/2) – 0/2

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: £216.40 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £40.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 19th February

CARLISLE – FEBRUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £51.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Truckers Lodge), 2 (Henry’s Joy) & 1 (Ballinslea Bridge)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Copper West), 9 (Dakota Grey) & 5 (Take A Break)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Swing Hard) & 3 (Granville Island)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Slanelough) & 5 (Blottos)

Leg 5 (4.05): 9 (Haul Us In), 8 (Point N Shoot) & 6 (Pinch Of Ginger)

Leg 6 (4.44): 1 (Chidswell) & 5 (Bako De Le Saulaie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Tom George has only saddled two horses here at Carlisle during the last five years (both beaten) yet Tom has declared three runners on today’s card.  TRUCKERS LODGE is the first inmate on parade and there is every chance that Tom’s beaten (Wetherby) favourite can make amends here with (seemingly) HENRY’S JOY and BALLINSLEA BRIDGE to beat.  The latter named raider is Olly Murphy’s first ever runner at the Cumbrian venue.

Favourite factor: Market leaders come into the race on a hat trick, albeit the last two favourites were the only gold medallists via six renewals to date.  From a win perspective, it’s worth noting that two 4/9 chances in the race have been beaten.  The last five favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.30: COPPER WEST is the second Tom George runner on the card and his Placepot chance is there for all to see in this grade/company.  DAKOTA GREY and TAKE A BREAK are offer up as potential each way alternative options.  Micky Hammond (Dakota Grey) has his team in fine order, whilst Nigel Hawke secured a double on last year’s corresponding card and there will be worse outsiders at Carlisle than Take A Break from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: There is just one successful (11/4) favourite to report via six contests to date, whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Course winners in the second race:

1/2—Cesar Collonges (soft)

2/2—Barrys Jack (soft & heavy)

2/12—Pistol (2 x heavy)

1/4—Dakota Grey (heavy)

1/16—Snowed In (soft)

 

3.00: There are stats and there are statistics but whichever way you want to load the dice, it’s impossible to ignore Sue Smith’s record in the event.  Sue has saddled the winner of this race four times and the only time she suffered defeat was when her 16/1 chance was beaten five years ago.  Sue’s stats of 1/14 at the track this season dilutes interest to a fashion but even so, dual course and distance winner (on soft and heavy ground) SWING HARD has to be the call.  Five of the six winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, which also brings recent heavy ground winners GRANVILLE ISLAND and UNTTIL WINNING into the equation.

Favourite factor: Although market leaders have won the last two renewals, the previous four favourites all finished out with the washing.

Course winner in the field:

2/4—Swing Hard (soft & heavy)

 

3.35: Four of the last five winners have carried 11-2 or more which bodes well for the chance of course winner SLANELOUGH, especially as Rose Dobbin has saddled three of her nine runners at Carlisle this season to winning effect.  BLOTTOS carries the popular white, yellow and green colours of Trevor Hemmings and with Sue Smith currently enjoying a 33% strike rate via her last eight winners, plenty of ‘locals’ will be cheering the six-year-old on.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 13/8) market leaders.  That said the last four contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded.  The statisticians among you will offer the positive point that favourite backers remain over 11 points up to level stakes thus far.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

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1/1—Slanelough (soft)

3/4—Lord Bullin (3 x good to soft)

 

4.05: The top three horses in the handicap have lost their way in recent times whereby HAUL US IN, POINT N SHOOT and PINCH OF GINGER look safer Placepot options on this occasion.  That said, nothing could prize money from my wallet/pocket to have a bet in the race from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Just one the three favourites secured a Placepot position by winning its respective event at odds of 15/8.

 

4.40: It’s not too often that Nicky Richards allows a Carlisle meeting to drift by without saddling a gold medallist and in CHIDSWELL, Nicky has a decent chance of greeting his nine-year-old in the area reserved for the winner in the unsaddling enclosure.  Arguably, it’s BAKO DE LE SAULAIE who could turn out to be the joker in the pack as far as Nicky and his team is concerned.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Never Up.

Favourite factor: The last two (6/4 & 3/1) favourites having finished down the field following the success of the inaugural 4/1 market leader in 2015.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Un Guet Apens (2 x soft)

1/1—Never Up (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Monday – followed by their stats this season at the track (in brackets) + five year ratios & profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Brian Ellison (2/7 – loss of 2 points) – 8/48 – loss of 17

4—Sue Smith (1/14 – loss of 8) – 15/106 – loss of 22

3—Tom George (0/1) – 0/2

3—Nigel Hawke (0/2) – 8/22 +7

3—Lucinda Russell (1/13 – loss of 10) – 9/154 – loss of 99

2—Nick Alexander (0/8) – 1/71 – loss of 28

2—Jenny Candlish (0/9) – 8/66 – loss of 28)

2—Susan Corbett (1/7 +4) – 2/27 - +5

2—Rose Dobbin (3/9 +9) – 9/65 – loss of 17

2—Ann Hamilton (1/3 – loss of 1) – 2/18 – loss of 8)

2—Micky Hammond (1/13 – loss of 4) – 6/95 – loss of 62

2—Donald McCain (3/25 +21) – 35/188 – loss of 22

2—Olly Murphy (First ever runners at Carlisle)

2—Nicky Richards (2/7 +1) – 18/79 +18

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 18th February

MARKET RASEN – FEBRUARY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £637.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 5 (Rouergate) & 4 (Potters Sapphire)

Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Samarayia), 10 (Dahills Hill) & 9 (Pretty Reckless)

Leg 3 (3.15): 8 (Nayati), 3 (Whatzdjazz) & 5 (Treshnish)

Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Captain Chaos) & 2 (Ozzy Thomas)

Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Midnight Merlot), 3 (Must Havea Flutter) & 5 (Norse Light)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Dawnieriver) & 2 (The Last Bridge)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Market Rasen has always been a difficult track to assess and today’s card in no different to normal.  Few trainers excel here, though Dan Skelton’s figures this season make for interesting reading, with Dan having declared six runners today.  Dan saddles runners later on the card whereby Venetia Williams can get the programme off and running to winning effect with ROUERGATE.  The positive vibes on the exchanges in the dead of night suggest that Venetia’s Sageburg mare has been schooling well following her fall at Ludlow last time out when travelling like a winner. Only POTTERS SAPPHIRE is standing up against the projected favourite at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.

 

2.45: Henry Oliver sends SAMARAYIA handicapping for the first time and Aidan Coleman’s mount is the each way call in the contest and I suspect that the 8/1 quote by 365 this morning will not last long after the offices open for business.  Dan Skelton’s first runner on the card is PRETTY RECKLESS who is the only course winner in the line up, whilst DAHILLS HILL represents Graeme McPherson who has done well at this corresponding meeting down the years.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader found one too good when claiming a Placepot position before last year’s 2/1 market leader made amends.

Record of the course winners in the second event on the card:

1/1—Pretty Reckless (good to soft)

 

3.15:  The 13/2 trade press quote about Alan King’s hat trick seeker NAYATI always looked fanciful and there is every indication that Alan’s Spirit One gelding can land the treble in this grade/handicap, though at probably no bigger price than 5/1 by the time that the starter drops his flag.  That said, this is a competitive race, with the likes of WHAYZDJAZZ and TRESHNISH also having been declared.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 favourite was the only horse which failed to complete the course, whilst detectives are still out searching for last year’s 5/2 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

1/1—Apasionado (good)

1/1—Whatzdjazz (good)

1/3—Mr Kite (good)

 

3.50: Only CAPTAIN CHAOS and OZZY THOMAS can be taken seriously as we head into the second half of our favourite wager.  For the record, the two runners are listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Market Rasen programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/29—The Society Man (soft) – this is not typo error!

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4.20: Noel Williams does not saddle many runner but the Oxfordshire based trainer has already sent out a couple of winners this year and I fancy that MIDNIGHT MERLOT can take Noel’s 2018 strike rate to 25% this afternoon, with seemingly MUST HAVEA FLUTTER and NORSE LIGHT to beat.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 6/4 & 11/8.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:

1/3—Sunny Legend (heavy)

1/3—Dartford Warbler (soft)

 

4.50: All six winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 10-10, with DAWNIERIVEER and THE LAST BRIDGE taken to land the Placpot dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg.  DAWNIERIVER makes quite a lot of appeal given Bet365’s 6/1 quote, if you are up early enough to take advantage of their ‘generosity’.

Favourite factor: Only two of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, whist we still await the first success market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—The Last Bridge (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runner (two or more) on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios this season at the track (in brackets) this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Dan Skelton (18/48 +27) – 36/132 +25

3—Sue Smith (1/14 - loss of 9 points) – 9/78 – loss of 44

3—Vic Thompson (First runners this season) – 1/7 +3

2—Jennie Candlish (1/5 +1) – 6/45 – loss of 21

2—David Dennis (1/3 +5) – 8/47 – loss of 14

2—Stuart Edmunds (2/9 – loss of 2) – 5/19 +2

2—Sam England (1/3 +1) – 1/10 – loss of 5

2—Andrew J Martin (0/2) – 2/11 +7

2—Graeme McPherson (2/14 – loss of 5) – 5/43 – loss of 12

2—Henry Oliver (1/3 +2) – 4/22 – loss of 6

2—Michael Scudamore (0/7) – 1/17 – loss of 13

2—Lucy Wadham (0/7) – 2/48 – loss of 2

2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 8/33 – loss of 1

+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

50 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £274.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 17th February

ASCOT – FEBRUARY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £76.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 5 (Dame De Compagne)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Ms Parfois), 1 (Black Corton) & 3 (Mount News)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Tenor Nivernais), 1 (Gold Present) & 3 (Royal Encore)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (Kildisart), 7 (Le Patriote) & 5 (Dieg Man)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Coney Island) & 5 (Top Notch)

Leg 6 (4.10): 7 (Ballyheigue Bay), 11 (Laugharne) & 2 (Templeross)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests between them. Paul Nicholls held two options for CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK today and it’s interesting to note that the other race was an event at Wincanton which Paul has won for each of the last five years, now leaving the trainer without a runner in that contest.  Such a move is clear indication that Paul was ready to throw his five-year-old Black Sam Bellamy gelding into this tougher assignment following two (soft and heavy ground) victories at Wincanton thus far.  Six-year-old Count Meribel is not easily overlooked, though the Twiston-Davies raider has to overcome a slightly disappointing effort the last day, albeit in decent company.  Accordingly, DAME DE COMPAGNE (receives ten pounds from Captain Cattistock) is offered up as the main threat to the marginal selection in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Count Meribel (good to soft)

 

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 19 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event and with only a 33/1 chance in opposition to three vintage representatives, the trend looks set to be extended.  This is going to be a big day for Ruth Jefferson, with two highly regarded inmates strutting their stuff down south following Ruth‘s first winner at Kelso on Thursday.  MOUNT NEWS is first up on behalf of the stable and whilst possessing plenty of undoubted ability, Ruth’s Presenting gelding will need to be a little sharper with his fencing to trouble to front two in the market I fancy.  That said, I will add MOUNT NEWS into my Placepot permutation alongside MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON who are listed in order of preference, mainly because of the seven pound concession from one to t’other.  There is also the fact that Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong (recent ratio of 9/21) at present, notwithstanding the fact that Ms Parfois was oh so impressive in each of her victories at Cheltenham, Newbury at Warwick of late.  In truth, I am also influenced by the 2/1 quote for MS PARFOIS over and above even money about Black Corton.

Favourite factor: The last 19 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2.  10 favourites secured Placepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

 

2.25: Anyone who witnessed the thirty length victory of TENOR NIVERNAIS in this event on soft ground last year cannot help but be attracted to the 7/1 odds (generally on offer) about the Venetia Williams raider. Placepot inclusion is taken as read accordingly, whilst 14/1 about the other Anthony Honeyball raider (REGAL ENCORE) on the card also catches the eye. Anthony has already saddled a winner here at Ascot this season with his level stake profit at the track standing at 13 points.  That said, I fully respect the chance of GOLD PRESENT who could yet be anything in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gold Present (good to soft)

2/4—Tenor Niovernais (2 x soft)

1/4—Royal Encore (good to soft)

1/3—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

 

3.00: Ten of the last twelve winners (including nine of the last ten gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals. Taking the facts and stats into account, I’m offering KILDISART, LE PATRIOTE and DIG MAN against the other six contenders, the trio having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Kildisart (good to soft)

 

3.35: It goes without saying that it is difficult to leave Cue Card out of the equation, especially as he has won this event on his only two starts in the contest in 2013 and again last year.  Time moves against us all unfortunately and if there was just one horse barring the way for Colin Tizzard’s grand servant sentiment might have ruled the day, though with four rapidly improving seven-year-olds in the contest, that option is not a variable with Cue Card now showing distinct signs of wear and tear. Speredek was included in the afore mentioned quartet out of sheer admiration for a horse that does not know the meaning of defeat though on this occasion, CONEY ISLAND, TOP NOTCH and WAITING PATENTLY are three mightily impressive types to take on.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though much could change by the time that flag fall arrives!  Barry Geraghty is responsible for giving the Irish raider the marginal call, given that the horse looked beaten the last day but Barry insisted that he was merely idling, giving the impression that there was much more to come from the Flemensfirth gelding, though there needs to be in this company!  In terms of potential future champions, this is the most exhilarating renewal of this event since the old king died.

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Favourite factor: 14 of the 19 market leaders during the study period claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include thirteen successful market leaders. Ten of the last twelve favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:

1/1—Coney Isalnd (good to soft)

2/2—Cue Card (2 x soft)

3/3—Top Notch (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.10: The booking of James Bowen aboard BALLYHEIGUE BAY catches the eye and no mistake, as does the amount of cash waiting in the positive queue, just in case potential layers miss the trainer/jockey combination, given that Chris Gordon landed another decent prize with Tara Bridge at Sandown yesterday.  Others for the mix include TEMPLEROSS, BUCKLE STREET and the potential ‘dark horse’ in the contest LAUGHARNE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have claimed bronze medals when securing Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners--Nicky Henderson—6/38 (loss of 9 points) – 30/154 (loss of 39)

4—Gary Moore (3/20 – loss of 5) – 8/82 – loss of 25

4—David Pipe (0/1) – 9/59 – loss of 3

3—Kim Bailey (1/5 – loss of 2) – 3/32 – loss of 23)

3—Martin Keighley (First runners at Ascot this season) – 1/12 +2

3—Paul Nicholls (2/11 – loss of 5) – 29/152 – loss of 22)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 1/8 +13

2—Ruth Jefferson (First ever runners at Ascot)

2—Suzy Smith (0/5) – 1/14 – loss of 7

2—Colin Tizzard (0/15) – 8/63 – loss of 3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 5) – 2/46 – loss of 35

2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Ascot this season) – 0/10)

2—Evan Williams (0/4) – 3/46 – loss of 21

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £95.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Wincanton: £66.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £55.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £61.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 16th February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,261.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 2 (Chieftan’s Choice), 4 (Balibour) & 9 (Mr Fickle)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Movie Legend), 3 (Tara Bridge) & 2 (Ubaltique)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Midnight Tune), 4 (Melangerie) & 1 (All Currencies)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Orbasa) & 6 (Midnight Monty)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Et Moi Alors) & 3 (Notre Ami)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Aubusson), 6 (Muckle Roe) & 2 (Bally Longford)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: It appears that Gary Moore is becoming increasingly frustrated with his poor Sandown form of late, having declared seven runners on the card.  Following his amazing season a couple of years ago when recording a ratio of 10/25 at the track, Gary has subsequently managed just three winners via 48 runners and I have a sneaking suspicion that MR FICKLE will outrun his 18/1 odds (at the time of writing) this afternoon.  That said, more logical winners include last year’s gold medallist CHIEFTAN’S CHOICE and possibly BALIBOUR.  This is a slightly speculative trio with which to go to war but with some half decent Placepot permutations having been landed of late, I’m up for the fight!

Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out with the washing before last year’s 3/1 market leader (Chieftan’s Choice) obliged.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Chieftan’s choice (soft)

1/3—Mr Fickle (soft)

 

1.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 whereby Un Beau Roman is eliminated from my inquiries at the first hurdle.  The other three runners cannot (safely) be left out of the (win only) Placepot mix but for the record, the trio is listed in order of preference as MOVIE LEGEND, TARA BRIDGE and UBALTIQUE.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have passed since the last favourite prevailed, albeit the top priced winner was returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Just three of the eight favourites secured Placepot positions in those six years.

 

2.25: It’s not often that you find Nicky Henderson sending just one runner to a top track like Sandown but that is the scenario in place here, with the champion trainer having declared his hat trick seeker MELANGERIE.  Gary Moore saddles ALL CURRENCIES with a Placepot chance at the very least, whilst my trio against the field in completed by MIDNIGHT TUNE for Antony Honeyball who is enjoying a season to remember.  Yes, Anthony’s Midnight Legend mare disappointed the last day but stock from this sire bounce back more often than not and Aidan Coleman’s mount is fully expected to be in the thick of things when the whips are raised at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders thus far have claimed three gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests and I could envisage MIDNIGHT MONTY going close to extending that good run, though ORBASA and last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE will certainly make Jamie Snowden’s representative pull out all the stops if the Midnight Legend gelding scores.  Paul Nicholls has hired the services of the most experienced rider (Jody Sole) in the field for ORBASA, who attempts to become Paul’s fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years.  RATHLIN ROSE boasts a chance for all to see though at the odds on offer at the time of writing, I marginally prefer the other pair to David Pipe’s projected market leader.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six favourites (all winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame, as have eight market leaders during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/2—Rathlin Rose (soft)

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3.30: For all that ET MOI ALORS was running a fine (debut) race at Ascot on soft ground recently before capitulating at the final flight, I cannot (for the life of me) envisage hefty investors piling into the 3/10 odds of offer, especially if you take a glance at the favourite stats below!  Yes, Gary Moore should be back on the winners list at Sandown but at the odds on offer when compiling this column, it comes as no surprise to witness a little overnight support for NOTRE AMI.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 3/1.  That said, last year’s 1/7 market leader was turned over despite completing the course on behalf of trainer Nicky Henderson.

 

4.05: The ten winners during the last eleven years have carried eleven stones or more, though only dual course winner Vino Griego ‘fails to make the cut’ on this occasion.  AUBUSSON, MUCKLE ROE and BALLY LONGFORD all boast each way claims on the best on their form and are entered into the Placepot permutation.  Step Back offers similar claims but not at 5/2 from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mosspark (soft)

2/7—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) at the track this season and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Gary Moore (1/19 – loss of 10 points) – 22/107 +77

3—Emma Lavelle (1/3 – loss of 1) – 4/27 – loss of 4

3—Lucy Wadham (0/3) – 6/28 +9

2—Colin Tizzard (1/13 – loss of 9) – 5/50 – loss of 40

2—Kevin Frost (First runners at Sandown this season) – 1/2 +2

2—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 3/19 +4

2—Chris Gordon (0/3) – 1/27 – loss of 1

2—Paul Nicholls (3/23 – loss of 8) – 27/179 – loss of 20

2—Jamie Snowden ((First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/11

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/10 +8) – 7/52 +19

2—Venetia Williams (1/5 – loss of 1) – 9/95 – loss of 53

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

55 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: £4,824.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 15th February

LEICESTER – FEBRUARY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £110.50 (7 favourites: 2 winners--2 placed--3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Skipping On) & 4 (Glance Back)

Leg 2 (2.15): 6 (Grow Nasa Grow), 3 (Dylanseoghan) & 2 (Clondaw Westie)

Leg 3 (2.45): 5 (Colin’s Brother) & 3 (Crosspark)

Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Chirico Vallis) & 1 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Timon’s Tara), 3 (Tara Mist) & 1 (Two Smokin Barrels)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Hazel Hill), 5 (Trafalgar Rock) & 2 (Path To Freedom)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: It’s a shame that we could not secure more than ten pence worth of yesterday’s £430.50 Musselburgh Placepot dividend but that said, we doubled our stake which I guess I would settle for on a daily basis!  SKIPPING ON and GLANCE BACK appear to hold their rivals on all known form in the opening race and the pair are very much listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  Laura Mongan (SKIPPING ON) has won with three of her last seven runners and the trainer can improve her recent strike rate ratio to 50% before another inmate takes its chance at Chelmsford this evening.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant race in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.  Today’s opening race in one such event as are four others on the card, subject to non runners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/7—Bally Lagan (good)

1/8—Lost In Newyork (good to soft)

 

2.15:  I tend to do better when supporting Zoe Davison’s outsiders than when Zoe saddles well fancied horses but that said, DYLANSEOGHAN has a second to none chance on the form book, albeit I will be adding GROW NASA GROW and CLONDAW WESTIE into the Placepot mix because of the initial comment I made. It’s sad to have to offer half of the field in the hope of progressing further in our favourite wager but in a poor race, I feel I have little option.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

2.45: All four winners to date have carried a maximum burden of 11-6 whereby Bright New Dawn is passed over, despite the positive ground factor for another of the Venetia Williams horses that tend to prefer wet conditions.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that COLIN’S BROTHER and last year’s winner CROSSPARK should take most advantage of the weight concession on this occasion. Creep Desbois is offered the reserve nomination, just in case the non runner board starts to heave under considerable pressure by mid-morning.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

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1/2—Crosspark (heavy)

 

3.20: Given the favourite stats below (albeit after only two renewals), it might take a brave investor to pile into TREE OF LIBERTY at around the 1/3 mark this morning, whereas 9/4 about CHIRICO VALLIS is a perfectly reasonable price in what amounts to a ‘match’, given that St Merryn would have to start about now to beat the other pair, barring accidents.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have been beaten in ‘win only’ races thus far.

 

3.55: TIMON’S TARA does not have to try and overcome a horse of Song Saa’s class, as was the case in this event last year and though Robin Dickin’s raider is one paced in the extreme, today could be the time to latch onto Jack Quinlan’s mount, especially with Robin boasting seasonal stats of 4/6 here at Fontwell, figures which have produced 21 points of level stake profit.  That said, TARA MIST and TWO SMOKIN BARRELS have to be added into the Placepot equation for fear of a withdrawal reducing this contest to a ‘win only’ event.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.30: For the same reason as in the previous contest (in terms of the projected numbers), HAZEL HILL, TRAFALGAR ROCK and PATH TO FREEDOM are all going to represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  For the record, the trio are listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 market leader prevailed before last year’s 9/4 favourite let the side down by being one of two runners which failed to complete the course.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3 runners—Dan Skelton (2/6 – slight loss) – 6/29 – loss of 1 point

2—Zoe Davison (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3/18 +12

2—Robin Dickin (4/6 +21) – 7/25 +14

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

33 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kelso: £50.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Fontwell: £165.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £543.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 14th February

MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: No meeting

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Misfits), 2 (So Satisfied) & 5 (Dun Far Good)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Silver Concorde) & 2 (The Road Home)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Divine Spear), 3 (Derintother Yank)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Titus Bolt), 8 (Our Lucas) & 6 (Devils Water)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Canny Style) & 4 (Nendrum)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Professor Plum), 5 (Rising Marienbard) & 1 (Nefyn Bay)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: MISFITS is proving almost as strong as SO SATISFIED in the markets overnight whilst DUN FAW GOOD is the each way alternative call. Course and distance winner MISFITS is the first of nine runners on the card for Lucinda Russell who looks booked for a good day in Edinburgh.

Favourite factor: This is a new fixture on the calendar.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/4—So Satisfied (soft)

1/4—Misfits (soft)

 

2.30: This should be something of an exercise gallop for SILVER CONCORDE over lone rival THE ROAD HOME though Lucinda Russell’s latter named raider in unbeaten at the track (albeit via a 1/1 ratio) though that said, Silver Concorde’s 2/3 record is none too shabby.  I’ll be ‘in the bar’ (as is usually the case in ‘win only’ events) hoping that both runners come home safely, with the best horse on the day prevailing.

Course winners in the second race:

2/3—Silver Concorde (2 x good)

1/1—The Road Home (good to soft)

 

3.00: DIVINE SPEAR looks another ‘good thing’ on the card, with Nicky Henderson having offered just one long distance traveller on Wednesday.  Musselburgh is a decent steeplechase track from my viewpoint whilst all races suit front runners in general terms.  Few horse come from a long way back in the pack at this venue.  How much ground DERINTOTHER YANK will have to make up turning for home in an unknown factor, though Donald McCain’s raider is the only threat to the market leader according to the gospel of yours truly.

 

3.30: DEVILS WATER has failed to complete the course on his last three starts, though Jane Walton’s raider could offer a little each way value at around the 16/1 mark this morning if you fancy a small speculative win and place wager.  TITUS BOLT is another each way horse to consider, albeit more logical winners in the field include OUR LUCAS and (arguably) Toarmandowithlove.

 

4.00: Kevin Ryan cannot do a lot wrong at present, given his recent 5/16 ratio which includes a 66/1 winner for good measure!  CANNY STYLE will start at the other end of the starting price spectrum this afternoon, with Brian Hughes expected to boot home another winner north of the border.  NENDRUM is emerging as a semi-serious horse on the exchanges this morning, with plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Sandy Thomson’s raider which is interesting, given Sandy’s 10/1 winner at the track last week.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

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1/1—Canny Style (good)

1/2—Nendrum (good to soft)

 

4.30: A tough Placepot finale in all honesty whereby I am searching for half decent potential ‘outsiders’ offering value for money on the Placepot front. PROFESSOR PLUM and RISING MARIENBARD appeal as much as anything else, whilst I will add NEFYN BAY into the Placepot equation in a race which fails to set the pulse racing.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Nefyn Bay (soft)

1/5—Professor Plum (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

9 runners—Lucinda Russell (7/40 +15) – 34/248 – loss of 13 points

4—Victor Thompson (0/4) – 1/17 – level profit/loss

3—James Ewart (0/7) – 13/81 +8

3—Donald McCain (4/20 +1) – 28/134 +27

2—Stuart Coltherd (0/2) – 2/27 – loss of 12

2—Susan Corbett (0/15) – 3/55 – loss of 37

2—Keith Dalgleish (5/14 +1) – 11/44 – loss of 1

2—Micky Hammond (0/5) – 1/30 loss of 28

2—Iain Jardine (0/17) – 4/47 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/9 – loss of 3) – 5/35 +21

2—Sandy Thompson (6/18 +22) – 16/65 +62

2—Alistair Whillans (2/10 +2) – 4/45 – loss of 12

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £193.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £36.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £9.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 13th February

SOUTHWELL – FEBRUARY 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £32.70 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Southwell: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (French Mix), 2 (Akkadian Empire) & 5 (Ingleby Spring)

Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Argante), 4 (Ruler Of The Mile) & 8 (The Lock Master)

Leg 3 (3.25): 8 (Epitaph), 5 (Coeur De Lion) & 3 (Swahbuckle)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Sooqaan), 1 (Mister Music) & 5 (Treaty Of Rome)

Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Volatile) & 5 (Light Laughter)

Leg 6 (5.00): 3 (Broadhaven Honey) & 4 (Archimedes)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Although 2/1 is proving quote tight with the layers about Star Ascending at the time of writing, 5/2 is freely available on the exchanges to decent sums of money whereby I’m inclined to fancy a few horses against the projected favourite in an open looking contest.  FRENCH MIX, AKKADIAN EMPIRE and INGLEBY SPRING fit the bill, though purely from a Placepot perspective you understand.

Favourite factor: Five of the six races on the card are new events.

Course winners in the opening event:

3/14—Star Ascending

1/3—Ingleby Spring

2/38—Monzino

1/6—Tilly Devine

 

2.55: ARGANTE is the call here albeit my enthusiasm has waned a little given Henry Spiller’s 0/10 record here at Southwell down the years.  That said, Henry has his team in fine order and when checking lists of entries the other day, ARGANTE was his only inmate with a potential assignment and sure enough, the trainer has offered the green light to the Fibresand debutant.  Three of Henry’s last six runners have won and connections might have the likes of RULER OF THE NILE and THE LOCK MASTER to fear at the business end of the contest.  The first named raider won on this card two years ago, though eight ‘sorties’ have subsequently come and gone with adding to that success.  The Lock Master is a nine time course winner who can rarely be left out of the mix as ‘course specialists’ on this controversial surface are few and far between.

Course winners in the field:

2/5—Caged Lightning

1/4—Ruler Of The Nile

1/5—Cousin Khee

3/11—Katie Gale

9/48—The Lock Master

 

3.25: Although four-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals thus far, EPITAPH is the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Mick Appleby’s raider steps up in trip here and is worth including in the Placepot mix from my viewpoint, especially with so many unknown factors to take into account.  One scenario is the fact that five of the eight runners have not run on Fibresand to date whereas EPITAPH has won here at Southwell, albeit via seven assignments.  The chance of COEUR DE LION is respected, whilst SWASHBUCKLE could outrun his 9/1 quote this morning, a price which was still in place with two firms (Bet365 & Ladbrokes) at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three winners at 4/1, 6/4 & 4/5.  Careful how you tread however, because market leaders have been turned over at 4/5 and 8/11 down the years.

Course winners in the third race:

4/16—Serenity Now

1/7--Epitaph

 

4.00: Eleven of the twelve runners are course winners whereby it could be argued that this is the toughest puzzle to solve on the Southwell card today.  That said, Antony Brittain has his team in fine fettle, whereby the trade press 7/1 quote about SOOQAAN offers value for money with the seven-year-old gelding coming here as a winner of four of his last five races.  MISTER MUSIC rates as a definite threat under a five pound claimer, whilst TREATY OF ROME is the call from those offered at double figures in the dead of night.

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Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Mister Music

1/4—Aguerooo

4/11—Sooqaan

2/4—Angel Palanas

3/12—Treaty Of Rome

3/4—Queens Royale

11/71—Alpha Tauri

1/4—Zoravan

2/5—Kommander Kirkup

4/25—Best Tamayuz

1/2—Powerful Society

 

4.30: VOLATILE and LIGHT LAUGHTER look a fairly safe pair to pin our hopes on here if we are live going into the fifth leg of our favourite wager.  Offered in no particular order, it would be something of a shock of both horses failed to reach the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Course winners in the penultimate event:

1/2--Essential

 

5.00: This is another (seven runner) short field contest whilst will take some sorting but having selected quite a large permutation already, I am pinning my hopes on two of the four course winners in the field, namely BROADHAVEN HONEY and ARCHIMEDES.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

7/34—Crosse Fire

1/9—Red Stripes

1/2—Broadhaven Honey

2/9--Archimedes

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Southwell card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

4 runners—Michael Appleby (6/44 – loss of 20 points) – 103/645 – loss of 164

3—Keith Dalgleish (2/9 – loss of 3) – 22/140 – loss of 16

3—Scott Dixon (3/32 +8) – 45/446 +37

3—David C Griffiths (4/16 +3) – 11/89 – loss of 18

2—Hughie Morrison (0/3) – 10/60 – loss of 16

2—Olly Williams (1/12 +5) – 3/24 +4

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th February

WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £762.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 3 (Crown Walk) & 1 (Feathery)

Leg 2 (5.40): 2 (Iconic Sunset), 1 (Battle Lines) & 4 (Illusional)

Leg 3 (6.10): 6 (Star Archer) & 7 (Qaffaal)

Leg 4 (6.40): 3 (Haines) & 2 (Dubawi Fifty)

Leg 5 (7.10): 8 (Camino), 5 (Barnsdale) & 7 (Lambrini Legacy)

Leg 6 (7.40): 8 (Sir Harry Collins), 9 (Storm Lightning) & 10 (Go Charlie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: Three-year-olds have won all nine renewals to date, albeit via the thick end of 70% of the total number of runners.  Junior raiders are 2/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into account, with three-year-old CROWN WALK listed ahead of four-year-old FEATHERY on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Ignoring the Novice status of this event which suggests it is a new contest, six of the last seven market leaders claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  Government health warning; I notice that the distance of this event has changed as well, whereby you might want to take the ‘new race’ as read.  For this reason, I will not be continuing the stats next year, marking this as the ‘new regime’.

 

5.40: Mark Johnston has long since been known as the leading trainer of three-year-old handicappers north of Watford whereby ILLUSIONAL will be a popular choice.  Intensive study down the years has illustrated to yours truly that the negative profit/loss figures for James Tate purely suggests that his winners invariably score when well backed whereby ICONIC SUNSET (attracting money on the exchanges as I write in the dead of night) must be included in the equation.  BATTLE LINES is a stable companion of ICONIC SUNSET whose odds have retracted as well which complicates matters.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished out of the frame before last year’s market leader frustratingly finished fourth for those that included the favourite in the Placepot mix.

 

6.10: Four-year-old STAR ARCHER comes to the gig on a hat trick, with vintage representatives having secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via less than 25% of the total number of runners. STAR ARCHER also happens to be the only runner on the Placepot card at Wolverhampton with a 100% strike rate at the track, albeit via just the one relevant assignment to date.  Last year’s winner PACTOLUS is a threat on the best of his form, whilst QAFFAAL looks too big at 15/2 in a place (Betbright) in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only first two horse home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Three market leaders had all claimed Placepot positions (including one 6/4) winner) before last year’s 3/1 market leader let the side down.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/3—Mount Tahan

3/6—Pactolus

1/3—Third Time Lucky

1/1—Star Archer

1/3—Qaffaal

 

6.40:  HAINES has been found a fine opportunity to follow up his win in this race last year, albeit the Andrew Balding raider’s ratio at the track has slipped to less than 17% in recent times.  Only DUBAWI FIFTY is being backed to beat Andrew’s Shirocco gelding at the time of writing, whilst Velvet Revolution looks booked for the bronze medal in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ as indicated in the trade press because this event was run on the Wednesday of this week last year instead of the Monday.  As suggested before, don’t believe ALL you read!

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Haines

1/2—Velvet Revolution

 

7.10: Although there are six course winners in the field, it is worth noting that their aggregate ratio via seven victories to date stands at just 12.5%, a stat which will offer layers plenty of confidence going into the last two Placepot events.  Nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which offers tentative chances to the likes of CAMINO. BARNSDALE and LAMBRINI LEGACY.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/6—Emjayem

2/5—Little Nosegay

2/13—Novabridge

1/8—Mostasheeqah

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1/24—Spoken Words

 

7.40: This is the second division of the previous race whereby the same weight stats apply.  Another six course winners (as in the first division) line up but in this instance, their collective  current Wolverhampton ratio stands at 11.5%, even though 15 success have been recorded!  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that SIR HARRY COLLINS, STORM LIGHTNING and GO CHARLIE can snare a Placepot position or two between them, hopefully landing the dividend on our behalf.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply; eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/8—See Vermont

1/15—Roy’s Legacy

5/45—Your Gifted

1/16—Storm Lightning

1/11—Go Charlie

6/36—Give Us A Belle

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wolverhampton card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) ratios and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Michael Appleby (2/26 – loss of 11 points) – 57/498 – loss of 137

3—Alan Berry (0/1) – 1/60 – loss of 55

3—Richard Fahey (1/12 - +5) – 64/509 – loss of 50

3—Lisa Williamson (0/4) – 10/203 – loss of 93

2—Michael Attwater (First runners at Wolves this season) – 4/32 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/8 +41) – 5/40 +51

2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – loss of 3) – 15/112 – loss of 53

2—Marco Botti (1/3 – slight loss) – 45/256 – loss of 3

2—Mark Brisbourne (0/6) – 10/218 – loss of 136

2—David Loughnane (0/14) – 2/58 – level via profit/loss

2—Karen McLintock (0/2) – 4/11 +6

2—James Tate (1/3 – slight profit) – 35/207 – loss of 39

2—Karen Tutty (0/1) – 2/19 – loss of 12

2—Ian Williams (0/11) – 31/244 – loss of 10

2—Stuart Williams (1/8 – level via profit/loss) – 22/130 – loss of 35

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £44.00 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Plumpton: £717.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th February

NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £30.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Whatswrongwithyou) & 8 (Rockpoint)

Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Barters Hill) & 4 (Bastien)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Saphir Du Rheu), 1 (Native River) & 2 (Cloudy Dream)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Politologue)

Leg 5 (3.35): 16 (Lalor), 21 (Silver Streak), 20 (Irish Roe) & 14 (Lough Derg Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Ibis Du Rheu), 5 (Duke Des Champs) & 7 (Reigning Supreme)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.15: It’s the changing of the (Newbury) guard on Saturday compared to twelve months ago when Nicky Henderson only held four entries on the day, having declared 12 (nearly 18% of the total number of declarations) this time around.  Out of interest, Paul Nicholls ‘held court’ last year with eight intended runners but drops back to half a dozen on this occasion.  Now that the housekeeping has been sorted, it’s worth noting that despite his dozen runners on the card, Nicky seemed intent on running WHATSWRONGWITHYOU in this opening event some time ago. Ok Corral franked the recent form of Nico’s mount yesterday at Kempton and there seems little (if no) reason to take on Nicky’s progressive seven-year-old this afternoon.  I fancy ROCKPOINT to chase the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 14 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won five of the last eight contests.  Ten of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Whatswrongwithyou (soft)

1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured seven of the last fourteen contests with BASTIEN being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Alan King is back among the winners (under both codes) and with a half decent conditional jockey aboard (rider of five winners thus far), Alan’s three time winner should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.  To expect any of the other horses in the field to cope with BARTERS HILL if back to his best would be fanciful in the extreme and with money coming for the favourite on the exchanges overnight, it’s impossible to ignore his claims.  The other potential winner in the line up is KING UTHER from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last nineteen years.  13 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Barters Hill (2 x soft)

2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the sixteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts.  Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. SAPHIR DU RHEU is the vintage representative this year and it’s worth looking at the weights because although this is not a handicap, the penalties incurred by NATIVE RIVER brings the pair exactly on the marks that would meet in such a contest.   Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008.  Seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence but eight-year olds NATIVE RIVER and CLOUDY DREAM could narrow the recent margins. I will simply offer all three runners into the Placepot equation and hope that the best horse wins on the day.  The best horse is Native River but do prices of 4/5 over 9/2 over Saphir Du Rheu under the terms and conditions accurately weight up their chances?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

3/4—Native River (2 x good to soft & soft)

3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is POLITIOLOGUE with seven-year-olds having won three of the last four renewals.  That said, ALTIOR could still be viewed as the most underrated horse in training despite media attention, as Nicky Henderson’s High Chaparral gelding has won on his last eleven assignments, only having tasted defeat twice in his career following fourteen races.  His quote of 8/13 (Bet365) would have ‘probability factor types’ reaching for the phone/mouse in all…..probability!
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last eighteen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. 16/19 market leaders reached the frame.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Game Spirit’:

1/2—Altior (soft)

1/2—Valdez (good)

3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) four years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now.  I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later.  Proving that I am not swayed by prices either way, last year’s successful 3/1 market leader was the first name on my team sheet!  50 of the last 60 horses to have claimed Placepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 13 of the last 15 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last eighteen gold medallists, the trainer not having been represented every year for good measure. Gary Moore has snared three of the last ten renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five and six-year-olds have equally shared the last ten contests. Taking all the stats and facts into account my ‘short list’ comprises of LALOL, SILVER STREAK, IRISH ROE and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference.  If there is a dark horse at 33/1 in the field which could blow the weight trend apart, MOON RACER fits the bill.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst eleven of the last nineteen market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:

3/3—High Bridge (2 x good to soft & soft)

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2/2—Jenkins (good & sfot)

1/6—Remiluc (soft)

1/2—Pappy Kay (good to soft)

4.10: IBIS DU RHEU could outrun his 10/1 quote this morning from my viewpoint with DUKE DES CHAMPS and REIGNING SPUPREME looking to be the potential party poopers if the Paul Nicholls raider is to be denied.  Either way, don’t expect that 10/1 quote to last too long this morning.  The 5/1 trade press call about DUKE DES CHAMPS is also looking generous at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame behind the 5/1 winner which was the first horse mentioned in my analysis.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

12 runners—Nicky Henderson (9/32 +12) – 46/177 – slight profit

6—Paul Nicholls (1/17 – loss of 12) – 25/160 – loss of 31

4—Alan King (2-19 – loss of 12) – 20/159 – loss of 60

4—Ben Pauling (2/18 – loss of 8) – 9/40 – loss of 5

3—Philip Hobbs (3/11 +6) – 24/122 +60

3—Jamie Snowden (0/4) – 1/20 – loss of 15

2—Sue Gardner (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2

2—Tom George (1/8 – loss of 5) – 6/69 – loss of 38

2—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 2/39 – loss of 26

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/5 – loss of 1) – 3/23 – loss of 6

2—David Pipe (3/9 +13) – 16/99 +1

2—Colin Tizzard (2/14 – loss of 4) – 12/81 – loss of 20

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £23.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £3.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Wolverhampton: £87.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £122.50 - 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th February

FEBRUARY – FEBRUARY 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £73.70 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 11 (Church Leap), 2 (The Brothers) & 1 (Sir Egbert)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Run To Milan), 3 (Marten) & 2 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Max Ward), 4 (Modus), 1 (King’s Socks) & 3 (Overtown Express)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Broken Quest), 3 (Smart Boy) & 11 (Fly Du Charmil)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Big Bad John) & 3 (Brandon Hill)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Beakstown) & 4 (Gold Blade)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.20: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 whereby CHURCH LEAP, THE BROTHERS and SIR EGBERT are offered chances in a weak opening contest, especially by Kempton standards. The trio is listed in order of preference, especially as positive exchange money is ready to pour on the first named seven-year-old at realistic requests at the time of writing.
Favourite factor:  All five favourites had finished out of the frame since the inaugural (15/8) market leader obliged in 2008, before the 7/2 jolly scraped home by the minimum margin in 2013.  Three of the last five favourites have subsequently secured Placepot places.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Bolving (good to soft)

1.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the ten renewals and this year’s five representatives should best be represented by RUN TO MILAN and MARTEN.  That said, CHOSEN PATH is taken to get the better of both of the six-year-olds, with Alan King having scored with three of his six runners yesterday which resulted in a 24/1 treble for the popular trainer.  Although OK Corral is as short as 4/6 in a place in the dead of night, even money is becoming available about Nicky Henderson’s favourite which is a more realistic price from my viewpoint which still requires ‘taking on’ from a value for money Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4-5/4-10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Ok Corral (good & soft)

 

2.25: The trade press quote of 10/1 about MAX WARD always looked fanciful from my viewpoint and I was pleased enough to take 9/1 ‘early doors’ this morning about the Tom George raider, mainly because of a little value for money in a race where question marks are in evidence relating to all four declarations.  I will be offering the quartet for my Placepot permutation in the hope that the horse with the fewest units wins the day, which could well be another bonus point if ‘Max’ obliges.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won, though the other four market leaders to date all missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Max Ward (good)

1/1—Moduis (good to soft)

 

3.00: Quantity rather than quality is in evidence here, with three selections needed to get us through to the last two legs of our favourite wager.  Listed in order of preference, I will settle for BROKEN QUEST, SMART BOY and FLY DU CHARMIL, all three horses having attract exchange money to a fashion.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite frustratingly finished just outside the money for relevant supports of the market leader.

 

3.30: Eight and nine-year-olds have shared eight of the last nine renewals, with nine-year-old BIG BAD JOHN making most appeal this time around. ASK THE WEATHERMAN is another vintage representative with a Placepot chance, though BRANDON HILL deserves his place at the top of the market from what we have witnessed to date.
Favourite factor: We were awaiting the first successful favourite following seven renewals before the 3/1 market leader duly obliged two years ago.  The race reverted to type last year when the 15/8 favourite finished nearer last than first.

Record of the course winner in the penultimate Placepot leg:

1/2—Bugsy Malone (good)

 

4.05: Layers are split regarding the chance of the Nicky Henderson newcomer GOLD BLADE though either way, Dan Skelton’s Irish import BEAKSTOWN is expected to land the dividend for us if we are live going into the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Although four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, four of the previous five market leaders prevailed.

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season – followed by five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (11/32 +3) – 61/216 – loss of 2 points

5—Alan King (3/22 – loss of 15) – 25/161 – loss of 60

4—Chris Gordon (0/11) – 8/54 +57

4—Paul Nicholls (9/22 – loss of 1) – 36/161 – loss of 13

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 +2) – 11/68 +16)

3—Jack R Barber (0/1) – 0/2

3—Harry Fry (4/11 +3) – 13/60 – loss of 16

3—Tom George (1/7 – loss of 2) – 10/60 – loss of 1

3—Neil King (First runners at Kempton this season) – 2/16 +8)

3—Gary Moore (0/22) – 5/99 – loss of 63

3—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 – loss of 3) – 6/41 – loss of 3

2—Vic Dartnall (0/2) – 2/23 +7

2—David Dennis (0/3) – 2/19 – loss of 13

2—Warren Greatrex (1/3 – slight profit) – 3/25 – loss of 11

2—Laura Mongan (0/2) – 0/4

2—Ben Pauling (1/7 – loss of 1) – 5/35 – loss of 16

2—Richard Phillips (1/2 +4) – 1/10 – loss of 10

2—David Pipe (0/2) – 5/52 – loss of 25

2—Denis Quinn (0/2) – 0/3

2—Fiona Shaw (0/2) – 0/4

2—Dan Skelton (0/20) – 8/104 – loss of 77

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/9 – slight loss) – 11/63 – loss of 20

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £127.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £110.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th February

HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 8 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £10.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners + 2 placed)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 6 (Marmont), 7 (Kaddys Dream) & 3 (Now Listen Here)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Abbreviate), 3 (Nobuttaboy) & 5 (Free Range)

Leg 3 (2.15): 5 (Vinndication) & 4 (Theclockisticking)

Leg 4 (2.50): 5 (Wild Blue Yonder) & 6 (Zipple Back)

Leg 5 (3.20): 7 (Minella For Me), 2 (Bally GIlbert) & 3 (Glenforde)

Leg 6 (3.55): 1 (Hoke Colburn), 4 (Braw Angus) & 6 (Boss Mans Ladder)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: At 7/2 and 8/1 in a place or two at the time of writing, MARMONT and NOW LISTEN HERE are a couple of potential movers (respectively) in the markets this morning, though not enough to get involved with aside from our favourite wager.  There is also quite a bit of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges for KADDYS DREAM from Robin Dickin’s in form yard, the trainer having saddled six of his last eleven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Huntingdon with which to open proceedings

 

1.45: Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals of this contest, with ABBREVIATE and NOBUTTABOY in place to extend the advantage still further between them if they are up to the task.  FREE RANGE appears to be the potential joker in the pack to deny the relevant vintage representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twelve years.  Four favourites won at 7/2-5/2-9/4- 13/8 via nine renewals during the period.

 

2.15: Five and six-year-olds have shared ten of the last eleven contests (six-year-olds lead 6-4), though I have only left the stat in for those of you that keep records, as all six contenders represent the two vintages this time around.  This is an interesting puzzle to solve despite the lack of numbers, with VINNDICATION and THECLOCKISTICKING marginally preferred to their four rivals. Even the outsider (Dell Oro) is being backed on the exchanges at the time of writing which adds mystery to the potential drama in the making.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won four renewals during the last twelve years, only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sidney Banks’:

1/1—Equus Secretus (good)

1/1—Theclockisticking (good)

 

2.50: Eight of the last nine winners in total carried a minimum burden of 10-12 which eliminates seven of the nine strong field, if you take jockey claims into account.  RED INDIAN and DELL A’RCA are left but even then, Ben Pauling’s first named raider has (seemingly) a preferred option at Towcester this afternoon.  It all makes a messy affair and no mistake, whereby a chance is taken that WILD BLUE YONDER can make up for lost time having has just two races in the thick end of four years.  If the ‘bounce factor’ has not kicked in since an encouraging effort at Newbury in December, Alan King’s raider can at least gain a Placepot position en route to better things in the spring.  With Red Indian and probably Brillaire Momento being re-routed to Towcester, we’re left with ZIPPLE BACK and (arguably) DELL’ ARCA to consider as the main dangers.

Favourite factor: Three (11/10, 15/8 & 2/1) favourites have won during the study period, though five of the last eight market leaders have failed to secure toteplacepot positions.

 

3.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last seven contests (and four of the last ten), with MINELLA FOR ME being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Tom George is another trainer who has his team in decent order whereby the eight-year-old is the first name on the team sheet, followed by BALLY GILBERT and GLENFORDE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/3—Ratify (soft)

 

3.55: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5 and the trio that catch the eye are HOKE COLBURN, BRAW ANGUS and BOSS MANS LADDER, the three horses being listed in order of preference. The overnight reserve nomination is offered to Amberjam who would have been included in the Placepot mix but for the claimer in the saddle which has enabled Lucy Wadham’s raider to slip into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders, two of which were returned as joint favourites.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Braw Angus (soft)

1/1—Amberjam (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) followed by the last five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Kim Bailey (2/8 – loss of 3 points) – 19/83 +40 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/8 – loss of 3) – 10/42 +85

3—Warren Greatrex (0/4) – 6/38 loss of 19

3—Alan King (1/15 – loss of 12) – 22/107 – loss of 28

3—Gary Moore (2/17 – loss of 2) – 16/97 +8

2—Robin Dickin (0/4) – 1/12 +7

2—Stuart Edmunds (2/6 +4) – 4/16 +2

2—John Groucott (First runners this season at the track) – 0/1

2—Harry Fry (0/2) – 4/16 – loss of 2 points

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 2/28 – loss of 15

2—Dan Skelton (2/19 – loss of 9

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £58.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £49.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £20.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 7th February

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £5.40 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (Doux Pretender) & 1 (Solomon Grey)

Leg 2 (2.10): 2 (Tree Of Liberty) & 3 (Copain De Classe)

Leg 3 (2.40): 8 (War Creation), 7 (Oscar Rose) & 3 (Whatzdjazz)

Leg 4 (3.15): 6 (Monsieur Co), 2 (Minella Present) & 3 (Colin’s Brother)

Leg 5 (3.45): 1 (Esprit De Somoza) & 5 (High Or Never)

Leg 6 (4.15): 12 (Queen Olivia), 1 (Wells De Lune) & 4 (Dabinett Moon)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: After another good day yesterday (832 points of profit), we can go into battle with an air confidence I'll wager.  Although SOLOMON GREY is a solid 4/7 chance right across the boards at the time of writing, the Skelton raider is edging towards 8/11 on the exchanges and being quite exposed now, I’m not sure that as a winner of just one of his four races on our racecourses that he represents value for money.  The problem of course is finding an alternative option, though money is coming in for the Henderson raider DOUX PRETENDER and if I had to choose between the pair, I would opt for Noel Fehily’s latter named mount.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Ludlow.

 

2.10: All the early 15/8 and 7/4 offers about TREE OF LIBERTY have been gobbled up now and it’s not difficult to envisage a starting price of around 6/4 being returned about Kerry Lee’s Stowaway gelding.  Kerry’s course and distance winner has certain been offered another winning chance, despite the declarations of hat trick seeker DRUMCLIFFE and COPAIN DE CLASSE having been made.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Ludlow programme.

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2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests and WAR CREATION, OSCAR ROSE and WHATZDJAZZ look likely types to improve the record of vintage representatives still further.  The trio is listed in order of preference, with the popular yellow, white and green colours of Trevor Hemming expected to rise to the top once again.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites in recent times have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (11/4) winner which scored last year for Alan King who was not represented at the penultimate stage this year.

 

3.15: Irish trainer Tony Martin is testing the water this side of the Irish Sea before his customary spring raids on the Festivals, though I’m passing over Dallas Cowboy in such a competitive heat, preferring the likes of MONSIEUR CO, MINELLA PRESENT and COLIN’S BROTHER on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed via six renewals during the last decade, whilst two of the other four market leaders also finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.45: Rebecca Curtis is enduring another slow season by her high standards and when your luck is out, you tend to run into well placed horses, as is evident this afternoon.  Ordinarily, you might have expected Rebecca to have scored with HIGH OR NEVER next time out after some promising efforts, though Nick Williams is expected to be the latest trainer to thwart Rebecca and her team having declared his impressive Huntingdon winner ESPRIT DE SOMOZA.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.15: The layers look like they want to take on Module today and with half decent types like QUEEN OLIVIA, WELLS DE LIUNE and (arguably) DABINETT MOON in opposition, I can see why, notwithstanding the fact that Module has not been showing his true ability for some time now.  The former Game Spirit Chase winner Module could make a mockery of the contest in his first Hunter Chase assignment but from a Placepot perspective, there is no value by including the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: The 5/2 favourite won the first running of this event twelve months ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: This is essentially a new meeting

Carlisle: £36.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This a new addition to the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 6th February

MARKET RASEN – FEBRUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £10.10 (All six favourites won!)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Oistrakh Le Noir) & 2 (Antunes)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Flemerina) & 2 (Stoical Patient)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Knight In Dubai), 4 (Burrows Edge) & 2 (Herewego Herewego)

Leg 4 (3.25): 6 (Generous Day), 7 (Future Security) & 2 (Board Of Trade)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Just Minded), 4 (Phoeniciana), 3 (Minella Tweet) & 2 (Bigpipenotobacee)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Sir Jack Yeats) & 6 (Warden Hill)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Ben Pauling saddled a 7/1 treble at Southwell yesterday via just four runners with Daryl Jacob aboard two of the short priced winners.  The pair team up again with OISTRAKH LE NOIR and it will take a half decent newcomer to take full advantage of the six pound concession this afternoon following a good Ascot debut in this green and (mostly) pleasant land.  Harry Skelton’s Nathanial colt ANTUNES looks set to follow the favourite home now that Sable Island has been withdrawn.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/5 market leader found the 5/4 second favourite too good (beaten by a short head), though the pair finished 17 lengths clear of the rest of the field when securing Placepot positions.  Last year’s 1/4 market leader made up for the initial defeat.

 

2.20: Another trainer at the top of her form on Monday was Sue Smith whose two runners obliged on the Newcastle card, whereby FLEMERINA is the first name on the team sheet in the second race.  STOICAL PATIENT has already registered three steeplechase victories though her sketchy jumping finally caught up with the Shantou mare the last day. Success at local tracks Plumpton and Fontwell for Gary Moore’s raider are were fairly easy to come by but the long trip north is another test entirely, as is the five pound concession to the selection.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Market Rasen card.

Course winner in the field:

1/2—Flemerina (soft)

 

2.55: It’s interesting to witness Barry Geraghty riding against a Nicky Henderson inmate here, with HEREWEGO HEREWEGO wearing the McManus silks for trainer Alan King.  His Warwick victory suggests that Alan’s Kalanisi gelding deserves his place in the field, though in KNIGHT IN DUBAI and Nicky’s beaten favourite BURROWS EDGE, Barry could have his work cut out turning for home.  It's worth noting that James Bowen (7/14) has won 50% of his mounts for Nicky Henderson thus far!

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far have snared Placepot positions, statistics which include last year’s successful 9/4 market leader.

Course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Dans Le Vent (good to soft)

 

3.25: Course winner GENEROUS DAY won well when most of us weren’t looking in on Boxing Day and there is every chance that this longer trip will suit Henry Oliver’s Daylami gelding. That said, this in an intriguing contest with FUTURE SECURITY and BOARD OF TRADE also having been declared.  The latter named pair (listed in order of preference) both have to overcome long breaks but if not too ring rusty, this duo could make the marginal selection pull out all the stops.

Favourite factor: In what seems to be a running theme on this card, two of the three market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far.  Last year’s frame was filled by horses returned at 15/8*, 11/2 & 13/2.

Course winner in the fourth event:

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1/2—Generous Day (soft)

 

4.00: The non runner (Romulus Du Donjon) takes this event into ‘win only’ territory and I have little (if no) hesitation is offer all four horses into the Placepot mix, hoping that the horse with the least numbers of units wins the day.  For the record, the quartet is listed in fractional order of preference as JUST MINDED, PHOENICIANA, MINELLA TWEET and BIGPIPENOTOBACEE.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 6/4 & 11/8.  The other 11/8 favourite was beaten in a ‘win only’ contest.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Just Minded (soft)

 

4.30: With over two hundred rides under NH rules, James King is much the most experienced pilot here and that could make all the difference aboard SIR JACK YEATS when the whips are raised at the business end of the contest.  Toby Lerone has been disappointing for some time now, whereby WARDEN HILL is preferred, possessing definite claims of following up his ‘between the flags’ victory last month.

Favourite factor: Both 4/9 and 4/6 market leaders have prevailed thus far.

Course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Warden Hill (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Market Rasen card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and their five-year stats + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Dan Skelton (15/44 +30) – 36/128 +28

2—Mick Channon (0/1) – 4/14 +11

2—Paul Henderson (First runners at the track this season) – 2/7 +2

2—Alan King (5/12 +19) – 10/76 – loss of 18

2—Olly Murphy (4/15 +11) – 4/15 +11

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/2) – 5/26 – loss of 14

2—Sue Smith (1/12 – loss of 7) – 9/76 – loss of 42

2—Lucy Wadham (0/5) – 2/46 – loss of 40

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

40 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £49.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: This is essentially a new meeting