Posts

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 13th May

PLUMPTON – MAY 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £163.10 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 52.8% units went through – Evens* & 16/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 4: 45.5% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 20/1

Race 5: 47.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 17/2 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 6: 40.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* (Win only event – 4 ran)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Jumping Jack) & 2 (Crushed)

Leg 2 (2.45): 10 (Sweet’N’Chic), 6 (Good News) & 5 (Now Listen here)

Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Ballycoe), 3 (Darebin), 2 (The Fresh Prince) & 1 (Red Hanrahan)

Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Makethedifference), 3 (Kalaskadesemilley) & 9 (Austin Fryers)

Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Whoshotwho) & 3 (Mellow Ben)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (King Cool), 4 (Remember Forever) & 5 (Hill Fort)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last thirteen contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  Unfortunately, last year’s only vintage representative was beaten but this time around, you have no chance of losing money because no five-year-olds have been declared. The stats become even more frustrating when you digest the fact that Gary Moore is only conspicuous by his absence despite saddling two of the last three winners! Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that JUMPING JACK should at least secure a Placepot position if he fails to win which is doubtful because at the time of writing, CRUSHED (the horse I suspected to be the main danger) is friendless on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (four winners), whilst 30 of the 40 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.  Gary improved those stats last year by scoring with the even money favourite.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.45: This is the first of five races which witness 11 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, over a quarter of the list of declarations in those events.  This was the race which helped the Placepot to produce a half decent dividend last year.  That said, the pot was worth £6.62 (after deductions) following the first two legs and with a win only race later on the card, holders of live Placepot units might have thought they were in a for a great dividend later in the day.  Back to basics by informing that seven of the last eight winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which suggests that SWEET’N’CHIC should be there or thereabouts, though the 7/2 trade press quote looks a tad skinny.  KEEP TO THE BEAT is one of the other two qualifiers via the weight trend to consider, though more logical winners include GOOD NEWS and NOW LISTEN HERE according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  Four of the last five winners scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1, whilst a 20/1 chance filled the runner-up position twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Cassivellanus (heavy)

 

3.15: This was the Placepot finale last year when the favourite won at 11/8 in a win only event.  Out of interest, the winner was 6/4 in terms of the remaining Placepot units going into the final leg.  These win only Placepot events tend to reflect the starting prices unless there are real outsiders in the contest.  One recent event I focussed on concerned a horse which was backed down to 7/1 from double those odds (without winning) which was a 52/1 chance via Placepot percentages!  With fifteen of the last sixteen winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just four) in the line up, with BALLYCOE being the exception on this occasion.  As the outsider of the party in the dead of night, I’m certainly not ruling out his chance, whereby I will include all four runners before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 15 renewals of this contest have been won by market leaders.  Half (8/16) of the jollies have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ballycoe (good)

 

3.50: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals (vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around) though arguably their main hope AUSTIN FRYERS has plenty to prove following an indifferent set of ‘recent’ results.  Either way, preference is for NAME THE DIFFERENCE (subject of overnight support) and KALASKADESEMILLEY.  GIN AND TONIC would have also made the short list but for noticing that his ratio of placed efforts between April and September stands at 0/11.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via seven renewals to date, statistics which include four successful (7/2, 2/1, 15/8 & even money) market leaders.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/4—Austin Fryers (good)

1/3—Brother Bennett (good to soft)

 

4.25:  DING DING was third in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting two years ago before finishing last of the seven finishers in this event twelve months back.  Sheena West’s seven year old registered a course ratio of 3/9 before that contest prior to the updated figures you can see below.  Nicky Henderson saddled a well beaten runner in the contest last year, whereby slight preference is for WHOSHOTWHO and MELLOW BEN over Brave Eagle who might represent poor value for money, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:

4/14—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—San Pedro De Senam (heavy)

2/16—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

 

4.55: A teaser of a finale in our closing event, with my short list consisting of KING COOL, REMEMBER FOREVER and HILL FORT, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished second (claiming Placepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before the 10/3 favourite went on the missing list two years ago.  Thankfully (for favourite backers), the 13/8 market leader obliged twelve months on.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Remember Forever (good to firm)

3/20—Flugzeug (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/8—Roparta Avenue (good)

1/5—Charming Lad (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 15th April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £388.50 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 98.3% units went through – 13/8 & 8/13*

Race 2: 49.6% of the remaining units when through – 11/10* (Win only event)

Race 3: 15.7% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 11/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 4: 63.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/2

Race 5: 24.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 12/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 15.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Dancing Doug) & 5 (Six Gun Serenade)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Mr Jim), 9 (Micquus) & 3 (Little Jimmy)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Midnight Maestro), 4 (Wolfcatcher) & 3 (Ballygown Bay)

Leg 4 (3.55): 5 (Cap Horner) & 3 (Indian Castle)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Indian Reel), 8 (King Charlie) & 4 (Howlongisafoot)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Mr Muddle), 6 (Brother Bennett) & 5 (Yourholidayisover)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Sam Thomas has taken some to time to reach double figures as a trainer (6% strike rate) but as eight of his ten winners have been gained in hurdle events, inmate DANCING DOUG has a second to none chance here from a Placepot perspective, given that I wouldn’t have a bet in the contest using your money.  There has been some support (brave souls) for SIX GUN SERENADE overnight which suggests that Suzi Smith’s raider can emerge as the main threat to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: The last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners of their respective events.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.50: MR JIM is asked to repeat last year’s success under much slower conditions, though Tony Carroll’s raider cannot be ignored given the great from of the yard.  Tony had produced 36 points of level stake profit via his current 5/7 ratio!  MR JIM is Tony’s only runner on the day with his next inmate possibly taking up an assignment at Newmarket on the level on Tuesday.  Emma Lavelle is a shrewd cookie and she has placed her new inmate MicQUUS to clever effect in this grade/company, whilst LITTLE JIMMY is consistent from a Placepot perspective around the ‘gaff tracks’.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader was one of two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/7—Gores Island (good)

1/1—Mr Jim (good to firm) – won this race last year

1/6—Remember Forever (good to firm)

 

3.20: Alan King was out of luck with his seven runners at Aintree though with four of them having reached the frame at 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 13/2, it cannot be said that the yard is comprehensively out of form.  That statement bodes well for the chance of MIDNIGHT MAESTRO here, if only from a Placepot viewpoint.  Others to consider include WOLFCATCHER and BALLYGOWN BAY in a half decent event by Plumpton standards. MIDNIGHT MAESTRO and WOLFCATCHER hail from the six-year-old vintage which has won four of the eight renewals of this race to date. Out of interest, you might also care to consider the merits of Gary Moore’s pair of outsiders (Searching and Justification) as the trainer has snared three of the last five renewals of this contest.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this contest (eight renewals), with the last six market leaders all finishing out of the frame, stats which include two pairs of joint jollies.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Paddys Runner (good)

1/1—The Premier Celtic (good)

 

3.55: Seamus Mullis is only four short of winning 100 races at the ‘sister’ tracks of Plumpton and Fontwell in 27 years of training and gold medallist number 46 at Plumpton could be in the offing here with the trainer having offered the green light to his recent soft ground Taunton winner CAP HORNER.  Some old south coast favourites line up in opposition however, the pick of them on this occasion possibly being INDIAN CASTLE who represents the relentless Ian Williams yard which offers so many good chances to inmates under both codes, such is the talent of the trainer in my considered opinion.  INDIAN CASTLE attempts to become with fourth ten-year-old winner of this race in the last five years.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have snared Placepot positions, statistics which includes four winners in recent years.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Leo Luna (soft)

1/2—Holbrook Park (soft)

1/4—No Buts (heavy)

2/15—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

3/14—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – good)

 

4.30: Another trappy contest following the previous potential ‘dead eight’ event on the programme, with arguably INDIAN REEL, KING CHARLIE and HOWLONGISAFOOT standing out from the crowd.  The latter named Chris Gordon raider enters my ‘last chance saloon’, whilst Fergal O’Brien appears to have found a good opportunity for INDIAN REEL to go close.  That leaves KING CHARLIE to consider, especially with Suzy Smith (the Suzy with a ‘y’) having saddled two of her last five runners to winning effect, despite yesterday’s hike to Aintree having proved to be a fruitless journey.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though five years have slipped by since the last of the two winning favourites prevailed.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Howlongisafoot (good)

1/5—Yukon Delta (good)

 

5.00: MR MUDDLE saves his best work for this venue given his three course victories on all types of surfaces, notwithstanding his five runner up efforts from just ten races at Plumpton down the years.  BROTHER BENNETT and YOURHOLIDAYISOVER represent some each way appeal at around the 15/2 mark this morning in the dead of night.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (15/8) market leader duly obliged.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/10—Mr Muddle (good to firm – good – soft)

1/2—Yourholidayisover (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 2nd April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 2 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £180.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 46.3% units went through – 11/10 (Win only – 8/11* unplaced)

Race 2: 93.4% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* & 3/1

Race 3: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* (Win only)

Race 4: 52.7% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* (Win only)

Race 5: 13.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 (Win only – 5/4 * unplaced)

Race 6: 48.7% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 & 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 1 (Sussex Ranger)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Pearls Legend) & 1 (Mick Thonic)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Snippertydoodah), 4 (Bagging Turf), 1 (Loves Destination) & 2 (Diva Du Maquis)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Beau Bay) & 2 (Casse Tete)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Cassievellaunus) & 1 (Welluptoscratch)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Show’s Over), 6 (Yourholidayisover) & 1 (Mr Muddle)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.55:  There is no reason whatsoever why this race will not turn into a procession for SUSSEX RANGER, unless Gary Moore’s four-year-old representative slithers on landing at one of the obstacles.  Jamie Moore’s mount was only beaten a length and a half on heavy ground at Chepstow in January which offers more confidence in the banker Placepot selection, should you require such information.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/11 market leader duly obliged.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.25: PEARLS LEGEND had his preferred ground in place when winning this event twelve months ago and these conditions will not play to his strengths.  That said, it’s impossible to leave any of the three horses on the Placepot side-lines whereby I’m hoping the defending champion can score (possible outsider of three) beating heavy ground winner TARA BRIDGE and MICK THONIC in the process, those two horses having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/4 favourite finished last of four as the horses finished in ‘reverse order’ in terms of the odds on offer.

Record of the course winner in the second contest on the card:

1/1—Pearls Legend (good to firm)

 

3.00: Regular readers will be aware that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum distance offer the worst favourite ratios in either code of the sport.  Add the ground scenario alongside this being a contest for mares who would rather be snug and warm in their stable boxes at home and you can see why I am including all four runners in my Placepot equation.  If pushed to name a winner, I guess I would opt for dual heavy ground course winner SNIPPERTYDOODAH, albeit with no degree of certainty whatsoever.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

2/7—Loves Destination (heavy & soft)

2/7—Snippertydoodah (2 x heavy)

 

3.35: BEAU BAY has two engagements for today pencilled in though I can assure you writing this just across the Severn Bridge that Chepstow has very little chance of staging racing this afternoon as it has been raining all night here in the west country.  Dr Richard Newland’s seven-year-old has won all six races with plenty of moisture in the turf and is expected to go in again at the main expense of CASSE TETE.

Favourite factor: This ‘Sussex Champion Chase’ is the second new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the two course winners in this Class 2 contest:

1/1—Royal Vacation (soft)

1/3—Dusky Lark (soft)

 

4.10: Daniel Steele’s Danehill Dancer gelding CASSIEVELLAUNUS is not asked to do a great deal more here following a recent course victory which was gained under conditions not unlike those which will be in evidence this afternoon.  WELLUPTOSCRATCH has been keeping better company though this ground is a leveller as far as he is concerned and then some.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Welluptoscratch (good)

1/3—Cassievellaunus (heavy)

 

4.45: SHOW’S OVER receives plenty of weight here on what is likely to be desperate ground by the time flag fall is reached fn the course gets the green light later this morning. YOURHOLIDAY IS OVER and MR MUDDLE are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is another new race to close out our favourite wager.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/10—Mr Muddle (good – good to firm – soft)

1/7—Gores Island (good)

1/2—Yourholidayisover (soft)

 

Record of the two course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) event on the card:

1/4—Howlongisafoot (good)

1/5—Yokon Delta (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 1st April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.80 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.0% units went through – 1/2* (Win only)

Race 2: 71.2% of the remaining units when through – 11/4 & 9/4*

Race 3: 35.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2 & 9/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/3*, 7/2 & 10/1

Race 5: 98.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 4/7*

Race 6: 37.0% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1** & 9/1 (2/1**)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Mister Malarkey), 5 (Traffic Fluide) & 1 (Indian Hercules)

Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Heurtevent), 2 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 3 (Champion Chase)

Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Lickpenny Larry) & 1 (Crafty Roberto)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Vado Forte), 3 (Jaisalmer) & 6 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 5 (4.20): 11 (Jumping Jack) & 7 (Pull Together)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (The Lion Dancer) & 4 (Two Hoots)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.15: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests and vintage representative MISTER MALARKEY seemingly has TRAFFIC FLUIDE to beat in the first race on the card.  Both horses have failed to live up to early expectations however, whereby INDIAN HERCULES is added into the Placepot mix for insurance purposes.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last eight renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Traffic Fluide (good to soft)

 

2.45:  Six of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-10 and HEURTEVENT might prove to be the value for money call in a trappy contest from my viewpoint.  Soft ground course winner FINNEGAN’S GARDEN demands respect in this grade/company, whilst CHAMPION CHASE in another potential winner in the field.

Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners have scored at 16/1 & 12/1, whilst five winners in total during the last twelve years have won at 9/1 or more.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst six of the thirteen favourites secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

 

3.15: Chris Gordon has won with his last two runners in this race and yet this is one of just two events on the card where the trainer is not represented!  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that LICKPENNY LARRY must be the first name on the team sheet, given that Tom Gretton’s raider receives between eight and twenty two pounds from his four rivals here on what is likely to be desperate ground.  CRAFTY ROBERTO is offered up as the main threat despite his position at the top of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners in total scored at a top price of 9/2, whist three clear market leaders and one joint favourite obliged with five of the ten favourites finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

3.45: Five, six and seven-year-olds have won the last seven renewals between them and I fancy the trend will be extended this time around by the likes of VADO FORTE, heavy ground course winner JAISALMER and EARLY DU LEMO who only found one too good on his reappearance after a long break at Newbury nine days ago.

Favourite factor: Two clear and one joint favourite have won via eight renewals, with only four of the eleven market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.  This was the race two years ago which decimated Placepot units in their thousands with a 16/1 winner scoring from a 20/1 chance in a ‘short field’ event.  This was the only race which was unpredictable from a Placepot perspective, yet a great dividend of £298.90 was returned, despite the other five market leaders all finishing in the frame!  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  With the ground as bad as it seemingly is at Plumpton, there must be a fair chance that this ‘dead event’ will be reduced in numbers whereby the ‘short field factor’ could come into play.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sussex Champion Hurdle’:

1/2—Jaisalmer (heavy)

1/3—Kings Walk (soft)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals between them with the older vintage representatives leading 4-3 during the study period.  Four-year-old JUMPING JACK is the call this time around, though PULL TOGETHER should make a race of it at the business end of proceedings.  Gary Moore’s runners always have to be respected here at Plumpton where he enjoys a better record than at his other ‘local’ track Fontwell, though both of his raiders should be put in their respective places by the afore mentioned pair on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners scored at 25/1 & 14/1 following almost total domination by favourites for a long period.  Seven market leaders have won via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, whilst ten of the last eleven favourites secured Placepot positions.

 

4.55: Heavy ground course winner THE LION DANCER cannot be opposed from a Placepot perspective, even though skinny odds of around 6/4 look likely to be in place, though those quotes are substantially better than the 8/11 price marked up in the trade press overnight.  Conversely, 2/1 is the price across the board this morning about TWO HOOTS who was going to be around a 7/1 chance according to the relevant newspaper.  Happy Easter!

Favourite factor: One of the two 2/1 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year by winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—The Lion Dancer (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh (non Placepot) race at 5.30 on today’s card:

1/4—Ramore Will (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th March

PLUMPTON – MARCH 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £53.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Larry) & 1 (Dell Oro)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Ramore Will), 3 (Le Coeur Net) & 4 (Lillington)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Ballyheigue Bay), 6 (Amberjam) & 2 (Pop Rockstar)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Iconic Sky), 5 (Molly Carew) & 3 (Jubilympics)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sounds Of Italy) & 3 (Black Franks Angel)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Lubatic) & 4 (King Cnut)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners have been sent off at a top price of 11/4 (see further stats below).  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six recent renewals, though Gary Moore has tilted the potential balance in favour of the five-year-olds this time around by having declared LARRY and DELL ORO (both vintage representatives) on this occasion.  The trade press quote of even money and 7/1 in favour of the latter named raider is not working out in the dead of night, with LARRY being the marginal market leader at the time of writing. All of that said, Gary will be mindful that Seaston Spirit is a heavy ground winner who might yet split the pair on the run to the line at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 favourites have won, though four of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame in races won by horses which were sent off at 33/1 (twice)--20/1--8/1--5/1—11/4--13/8.

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and with RAMORE WILL representing Chris Gordon who won with all of his five runners on the corresponding day last year (946/1 accumulator), I cannot leave the top weight out of the mix, despite the fact that faster ground would have been preferable.  I should (perhaps) remind readers that I flagged up Chris’s runners last year before he snared the five-timer. Others of interest here include LE COEUR NET and LILLINGTON.

Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 8/1 or less (four winning favourites).  Four of the other eight market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/3—Ramore Will (good)

1/3—Le Coeur Lad (soft)

1/16—Sir Hubert (heavy)

 

3.20: 15/2 about POP ROCKSTAR looks a tad big in a place this morning, albeit I prefer the chance of BALLYHEIGUE BAY despite the fact that seven pound claimer Harry Reed will have to be at his ‘calculating best’ if Chris Gordon’s raider makes the running as was the case at Ascot over a shorter trip the last day.  AMBERJAM might make BALLYHEIGUE BAY pull out all the stops close home.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

Your first 30 days for just £1

2/5—Ballyheigue Bay (good to soft & soft)

3/8—Tambura ( 2 x soft & good to soft)

1/5—Clondaw Bisto (heavy)

1/3—Sandhurst Lad (good to soft)

 

3.50: Lucy Wadham boasts definite claims of a potential double on the card via her two runners, with ICONIC SKY rounding off Lucy’s afternoon having saddled Amberjam in the previous contest.  That said, Lucy will have done her homework which will have informed her that both MOLLY CAREW and JUBILYMPICS have won under these conditions in the past.  LOVES DESTINATION is another to consider in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/6—Loves Destination (soft & heavy)

4/13—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/6—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

 

4.20: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last twelve renewals during the last thirteen years.  Indeed, seven-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests; so why then (trainers) are vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence this time around?   Upwards and onwards in positive mode (I guess) by suggesting that eight-year-old BACK FRANKS ANGEL could be the each way call in the short field contest, though SOUNDS OF ITALY is a more logical winner via the form book.  The Lion Dancer (Charlie Mann saddled the winner last year) is the other plausible winner in the field from my viewpoint.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 29 of the 32 horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date started at 9/1 or less.  Five of the thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

 

4.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of 10-12 and the pick of this year’s four ‘qualifiers’ will hopefully prove to be LUBATIC and KING CNUT.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals split the last two winning favourites in this event (10/3 last year and 6/4 in 2008) albeit eight winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 13/2.  Only two of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame, not that this was a Placepot event on last year’s card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Chris Gordon (4/29 – loss of 2 points) – 24/156 +19

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/5) – 5/26 – loss of 2

3—Gary Moore (13/58 +6) – 56/276 – loss of 12

2—Lawney Hill (1/5 +1) – 7/33 +12

2—Ron Hodges (First runners here this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (4/18 – loss of 8) – 17/58 – loss of 10

2—Neil King (2/14 – loss of 5) – 10/69 – loss of 28

2—Neil Mulholland (5/19 – marginal loss) – 12/74 – loss of 12

2—Seamus Mullins (2/19 – loss of 3) – 14/129 – loss of 53

2—Richard Rowe (1/9 – loss of 3) – 6/64 – loss of 30

2—Lucy Wadham (1/4 – level profit/loss this term) – 2/20 – loss of 14

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

41 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Stratford: £98.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Taunton: No corresponding meeting on the Monday of Cheltenham week

Chelmsford: £43.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

1.20 Sandown : Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 Tracked leaders, disputing 2nd after 2nd, led before 2 out, soon quickened clear, eased towards finish, but still clear by 11 lengths.

Our new week starts with Monday's...

3.20 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £6,238 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This "lad" might be eleven years old now and certainly not a Festival horse, but there's plenty of life left in the old boy yet, as typified by him winning three of his seven races over the past 12 months and he comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back soft ground wins at this Class 3 over trips of 3m and beyond, including a course and distance win two starts ago when partnered by today's jockey Harry Reed.

This recent form took his career tally to a point that includes of relevance today...

  • 5 wins and 2 places from 12 runs after a break of just 16-30 days
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 soft ground outings
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 here at Plumpton
  • 3 wins from 4 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins from 3 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Harry Reed.

His trainer Chris Gordon tends to come to the fore towards the back end of the season and since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers are 47/266 (17.7% SR) for 133.4pts (+50.1% ROI) in the February to April period, including...

  • over hurdles : 24/154 (15.6%) for 116.7pts (+75.8%)
  • in March : 22/94 (23.4%) for 85.95pts (+91.4%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/77 (18.2%) for 62.8pts (+81.6%)
  • at Plumpton : 16/63 (25.4%) for 102.7pts (+163%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/56 (17.9%) for 30.3pts (+54.2%)
  • LTO winners are 12/44 (27.3%) for 4.86pts (+11.1%)
  • at 3m1.5f-3m2f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 20.5pts (+93.2%)
  • and with Harry Reed in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.62pts (+66.3%)

And also since the start of 2013, in UK NH handicaps, horses who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less last time out are 228 from 1022 (22.3% SR) for 194.3pts (+19% ROI) when returning to the scene of a course and distance success. These 1022 runners include...

  • LTO winners : 182/851 (21.4%) for 91.1pts (+10.7%)
  • after 11-30 days rest : 122/547 (22.3%) for 159.5pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 73/259 (28.2%) for 214pts (+82.6%)
  • in March : 26/108 (24.1%) for 59.4pts (+55%)
  • and here at Plumpton : 6/22 (27.3%) for 6.4pts (+28.9%)

...whilst LTO winners racing at Class 3 some 11 to 30 days since their last run are 30/116 (25.9% SR) for 98.3pts (+84.7% ROI) profit, with 6 winners from 13 (46.2%) in March generating 30.5pts profit at an ROI of 234.2%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

1.20 Sandown : Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 Tracked leaders, disputing 2nd after 2nd, led before 2 out, soon quickened clear, eased towards finish, but still clear by 11 lengths.

Our new week starts with Monday's...

3.20 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £6,238 to the winner...

Why?

This "lad" might be eleven years old now and certainly not a Festival horse, but there's plenty of life left in the old boy yet, as typified by him winning three of his seven races over the past 12 months and he comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back soft ground wins at this Class 3 over trips of 3m and beyond, including a course and distance win two starts ago when partnered by today's jockey Harry Reed.

This recent form took his career tally to a point that includes of relevance today...

  • 5 wins and 2 places from 12 runs after a break of just 16-30 days
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 soft ground outings
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 here at Plumpton
  • 3 wins from 4 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins from 3 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Harry Reed.

His trainer Chris Gordon tends to come to the fore towards the back end of the season and since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers are 47/266 (17.7% SR) for 133.4pts (+50.1% ROI) in the February to April period, including...

  • over hurdles : 24/154 (15.6%) for 116.7pts (+75.8%)
  • in March : 22/94 (23.4%) for 85.95pts (+91.4%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/77 (18.2%) for 62.8pts (+81.6%)
  • at Plumpton : 16/63 (25.4%) for 102.7pts (+163%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/56 (17.9%) for 30.3pts (+54.2%)
  • LTO winners are 12/44 (27.3%) for 4.86pts (+11.1%)
  • at 3m1.5f-3m2f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 20.5pts (+93.2%)
  • and with Harry Reed in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.62pts (+66.3%)

And also since the start of 2013, in UK NH handicaps, horses who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less last time out are 228 from 1022 (22.3% SR) for 194.3pts (+19% ROI) when returning to the scene of a course and distance success. These 1022 runners include...

  • LTO winners : 182/851 (21.4%) for 91.1pts (+10.7%)
  • after 11-30 days rest : 122/547 (22.3%) for 159.5pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 73/259 (28.2%) for 214pts (+82.6%)
  • in March : 26/108 (24.1%) for 59.4pts (+55%)
  • and here at Plumpton : 6/22 (27.3%) for 6.4pts (+28.9%)

...whilst LTO winners racing at Class 3 some 11 to 30 days since their last run are 30/116 (25.9% SR) for 98.3pts (+84.7% ROI) profit, with 6 winners from 13 (46.2%) in March generating 30.5pts profit at an ROI of 234.2%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 26th February

PLUMPTON - FEBRUARY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.30 (8 favourites: 5 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Royal Ruby) & 11 (Miss Adventure)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Holbrook Park), 2 (Monmore Present) & 3 (Ticket To Ride)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Shroughmore Lass), 7 (Sheelbewhatsheelbe) & 1 (Sue Be It)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Not Never) & 2 (Doc Clover)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Alf ‘N’ Dor), 1 (Greyed A), 3 (Invicta Lake) & 4 (Little Windmill)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Soulsaver) & 2 (Double Accord)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: In terms of potential snow, this meeting should just about finish before the threat of the worsening conditions take hold, notwithstanding the fact that there is an 8.00 inspection this morning. Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight renewals, with the older raiders again looking to have the edge this time around with ROYAL RUBY and MISS ADVENTURE having been declared.  Only The Premier Celtic can be expected to keep tabs on the market leaders until the ‘taps are turned on’ turning for home, according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite stats: Three of the last five market leaders have prevailed, whilst a top priced winner of 7/2 emerged during the period.  For the record, the other two favourites secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: There are dribs and drabs of interest on the overnight exchanges at double figure ‘prices’ for TICKET TO RIDE which forces me to include Polly Gundry’s representative in the Placepot mix, previously having held the belief that HOLBROOK PARK and MINMORE PRESENT would be enough to see us through to the third leg of our favourite wager. At 4/11 with some firms at the time of writing, exchange players can currently back HOLBROOK PARK at 4/6 which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite stats: This is a new race on the Plumpton card which is unlikely to be repeated next year given the lack of interest by trainers.

 

3.00: Last time out (soft ground) winner SHEELBEWHATSHEELBE takes on SHROUGHMORE LASS from Henry Oliver’s in form yard, whilst an alternative each way option to the likely front pair in the betting is SUE BE IT.  The latter named raider is entered into the mix having attracted money overnight with a great number of firms as well via ‘exchange activity’.

Favourite stats: Six favourites have won during the last decade, whilst eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the period.

 

3.35: DOC CLOVER is the market leader in the trade press this morning, though I doubt if that scenario will be in place by the time that flag fall arrives at least, not by what is taking place ‘early doors’ today. Gary Moore’s four time winner NOT NEVER has taken over as the favourite at the time of writing which is hardly surprising, given his course and distance victory the last day, albeit that success was gained under heavy conditions.  There have been bits and pieces of support for three of the ‘outsiders’ as I conclude this column, though they have plenty to do ‘on the book’.  The pick of those ‘speculative’ types could prove to be ZEN MASTER.

Favourite stats: This is another new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Boru’s Brook (heavy)

1/1—Not Never (heavy)

1/2—Hope’s Whisper (soft)

 

4.05: There are so many ifs, buts and maybe’s in this event that including all four runners into the Placepot mix appears to be the only route to take, hoping that the horse with the least units prevails.  If forced to make a decision from a win perspective, the oh so tentative vote would be awarded to Alf ‘N’ Dor, if only because Peter Bowen has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect.

Favourite stats: Four of the last five favourites have secured Placepot positions in this event, statistics which include three (odds on) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/14—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

2/6—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

4.40: SOULSAVER appears to be the safest option in the ‘lucky last’, with trainer Anthony Honeyball enjoying a great season via 33 winners to date, statistics which boast a 25% strike rate which any leading trainer would settle for.  The only problem is that Anthony has also declared DOUBLE ACCORD in the contest.

Favourite stats: The inaugural 6/4 favourite duly prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (4/14 – loss of 4) – 17/54 – loss of 6

3—David Bridgwater (1/11 – loss of 7) – 12/69 – loss of 29

3—Chris Gordon (4/27 – slight loss) – 24/154 +21

3—Gary Moore (12/55 +7) – 55/273 – loss of 11

3—Pat Phelan (0/3) – 0/31

2—Neil King (1/12 – loss of 8) – 9/67 – loss of 28

2—Charlie Mann (1/3 – slight loss) – 8/26 +26

2—Neil Mulholland (4/18 – loss of 7) – 11/73 – loss of 20

2—Daniel O’Brien (1/3 +1) – 2/56 – loss of 44

2—Henry Oliver (0/1) – 0/2

2—Michael Roberts (0/4) – 2/30 +9

2—Fiona Shaw (0/1) – 0/1

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £317.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: This is an additional fixture

Wolverhampton: £325.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th February

WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £762.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 3 (Crown Walk) & 1 (Feathery)

Leg 2 (5.40): 2 (Iconic Sunset), 1 (Battle Lines) & 4 (Illusional)

Leg 3 (6.10): 6 (Star Archer) & 7 (Qaffaal)

Leg 4 (6.40): 3 (Haines) & 2 (Dubawi Fifty)

Leg 5 (7.10): 8 (Camino), 5 (Barnsdale) & 7 (Lambrini Legacy)

Leg 6 (7.40): 8 (Sir Harry Collins), 9 (Storm Lightning) & 10 (Go Charlie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: Three-year-olds have won all nine renewals to date, albeit via the thick end of 70% of the total number of runners.  Junior raiders are 2/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into account, with three-year-old CROWN WALK listed ahead of four-year-old FEATHERY on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Ignoring the Novice status of this event which suggests it is a new contest, six of the last seven market leaders claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  Government health warning; I notice that the distance of this event has changed as well, whereby you might want to take the ‘new race’ as read.  For this reason, I will not be continuing the stats next year, marking this as the ‘new regime’.

 

5.40: Mark Johnston has long since been known as the leading trainer of three-year-old handicappers north of Watford whereby ILLUSIONAL will be a popular choice.  Intensive study down the years has illustrated to yours truly that the negative profit/loss figures for James Tate purely suggests that his winners invariably score when well backed whereby ICONIC SUNSET (attracting money on the exchanges as I write in the dead of night) must be included in the equation.  BATTLE LINES is a stable companion of ICONIC SUNSET whose odds have retracted as well which complicates matters.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished out of the frame before last year’s market leader frustratingly finished fourth for those that included the favourite in the Placepot mix.

 

6.10: Four-year-old STAR ARCHER comes to the gig on a hat trick, with vintage representatives having secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via less than 25% of the total number of runners. STAR ARCHER also happens to be the only runner on the Placepot card at Wolverhampton with a 100% strike rate at the track, albeit via just the one relevant assignment to date.  Last year’s winner PACTOLUS is a threat on the best of his form, whilst QAFFAAL looks too big at 15/2 in a place (Betbright) in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only first two horse home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Three market leaders had all claimed Placepot positions (including one 6/4) winner) before last year’s 3/1 market leader let the side down.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/3—Mount Tahan

3/6—Pactolus

1/3—Third Time Lucky

1/1—Star Archer

1/3—Qaffaal

 

6.40:  HAINES has been found a fine opportunity to follow up his win in this race last year, albeit the Andrew Balding raider’s ratio at the track has slipped to less than 17% in recent times.  Only DUBAWI FIFTY is being backed to beat Andrew’s Shirocco gelding at the time of writing, whilst Velvet Revolution looks booked for the bronze medal in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ as indicated in the trade press because this event was run on the Wednesday of this week last year instead of the Monday.  As suggested before, don’t believe ALL you read!

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Haines

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/2—Velvet Revolution

 

7.10: Although there are six course winners in the field, it is worth noting that their aggregate ratio via seven victories to date stands at just 12.5%, a stat which will offer layers plenty of confidence going into the last two Placepot events.  Nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which offers tentative chances to the likes of CAMINO. BARNSDALE and LAMBRINI LEGACY.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/6—Emjayem

2/5—Little Nosegay

2/13—Novabridge

1/8—Mostasheeqah

1/24—Spoken Words

 

7.40: This is the second division of the previous race whereby the same weight stats apply.  Another six course winners (as in the first division) line up but in this instance, their collective  current Wolverhampton ratio stands at 11.5%, even though 15 success have been recorded!  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that SIR HARRY COLLINS, STORM LIGHTNING and GO CHARLIE can snare a Placepot position or two between them, hopefully landing the dividend on our behalf.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply; eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/8—See Vermont

1/15—Roy’s Legacy

5/45—Your Gifted

1/16—Storm Lightning

1/11—Go Charlie

6/36—Give Us A Belle

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wolverhampton card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) ratios and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Michael Appleby (2/26 – loss of 11 points) – 57/498 – loss of 137

3—Alan Berry (0/1) – 1/60 – loss of 55

3—Richard Fahey (1/12 - +5) – 64/509 – loss of 50

3—Lisa Williamson (0/4) – 10/203 – loss of 93

2—Michael Attwater (First runners at Wolves this season) – 4/32 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/8 +41) – 5/40 +51

2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – loss of 3) – 15/112 – loss of 53

2—Marco Botti (1/3 – slight loss) – 45/256 – loss of 3

2—Mark Brisbourne (0/6) – 10/218 – loss of 136

2—David Loughnane (0/14) – 2/58 – level via profit/loss

2—Karen McLintock (0/2) – 4/11 +6

2—James Tate (1/3 – slight profit) – 35/207 – loss of 39

2—Karen Tutty (0/1) – 2/19 – loss of 12

2—Ian Williams (0/11) – 31/244 – loss of 10

2—Stuart Williams (1/8 – level via profit/loss) – 22/130 – loss of 35

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £44.00 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Plumpton: £717.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 29th January

PLUMPTON – JANUARY 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Weebill), 1 (Canyouringmeback) & 5 (Paddy’s Poem)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Le Coeur Net), 8 (Sir Hubert) & 3 (Two Hoots)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (My Dance) & 3 (Puppet Warrior)

Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Clondaw Bisto), 4 (Ballyheigue Bay) & 6 (Sandhurst Lad)

Leg 5 (3.55): 2 (Act Now) & 1 (Leo Lunar)

Leg 6 (4.25): 4 (Be Daring), 1 (Argyle) & 9 (Sixites Idol)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Seven-year-olds have secured four of the last eight available Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 10/11*) winners.  Nick Gifford’s PADDY’S POEM makes far more appeal that the other vintage raider on this occasion, albeit only from a Placepot perspective.  More logical winners from my viewpoint include stable companion CANYOURINGMEBACK and (especially) WEEBILL.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two (10/11 & 1/10) winners.  That said, last year’s 1/4 market leader was beaten from a win perspective.

 

2.25: You can comfortably ignore the 5/1 trade press call about LE COEUR NET as Anthony Honeyball looks to add to his impressive tally this season.  Although the relevant horses have not produced a level stake profit over the last five years, Anthony’s 30% strike rate at the track during the period makes for impressive reading and his three runners this afternoon warrant plenty of respect.  SIR HUBERT and TWO HOOTS are likely to give each way supporters a decent run for their collective investments.

Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame via four renewals.  That is as many as there could have been as the favourite that missed out contested a ‘win only’ event.

 

2.55: MY DANCE in the second of the three Honeyball runners on the card and this Midnight Legend mare looks something out of the ordinary, a little like her mum (My Petra) who was a really good sort herself, finishing ‘in the three’ in 20/33 assignments.  A winner of a Grade 2 chase into the bargain, My Petra looks to have passed off plenty of ability to MY DANCE who looks destined for far better things if she can take this event in her stride.  PUPPET WARRIOR provides half decent opposition however, though the other pair look to be up against it in this ‘win only’ event.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/2 favourite duly obliged.

 

3.25:  Eight of the nine available Placepot positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 11-4, statistics which include all four (16/1, 4/1, 4/1 & 2/1*) winners.  Suzy Smith has saddled 14 winners here at Plumpton during the last five years, a total the she has achieved at all the other tracks in the county – combined!  Stable representative CLONDAW BISTO will not mind the ground and the course winner also qualifies via the weight trend.  Two horses that run from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap that might still represent a little value are SANDHURST LAD (though the ground will be plenty deep enough for him) and BALLYHEIGUE BAY who hails from the in form yard of Chris Gordon who won with his only runner (Remiluc) at 20/1 at Cheltenham on Saturday.  An interesting event, given that seven of the eight runners have previously won here at Plumpton.  Please form an orderly queue outside the betting shops across the land for those of the you that want to back the ‘missing’ runner, namely Plantagenet!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged though that said, the other four favourites (via three further renewals) finished out of the frame.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—No Buts (heavy)

Your first 30 days for just £1

3/7—Tambura (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/6—Saucysioux (heavy)

1/4—Ballyheigue Bay (good to soft)

1/w—Clondaw Bisto (heavy)

1/1—Sandhurst Lad (good to soft)

1.1—Jully Les Buxy (heavy)

 

3.55: There is plenty of money in the (realistic) positive exchange queue for LEO LUNA at the time of writing, so much so that favouritism against Clondaw Rigger is warming up at the time of writing.  The third Honeyball runner ACT NOW is no forlorn hope this afternoon, whilst the other option in the contest according to the gospel of yours truly is Frank N Fair.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader prevailed.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

2/3—Act Now (soft & heavy)

2/13—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

3/13—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—Howlongisafoot (good)

 

4.25: Five-year-olds have won the last two renewals when represented, with ARGYLE preferred to SIXTIES IDOL this time around, albeit both horses will be included in my Placepot permutation.  From win perspective however, the call has to be BE DARING, given that in form trainer Chris Gordon goes in search of a hat trick in the race, having won the last two renewals with returned favourites.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective event at odds of 2/1 and 11/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

2/2—Drive On Locky (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this year + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Gary Moore (8/44 – loss of 2 points) – 51/262 – loss of 20

5—Seamus Mullins (2/13 +2) – 14/123 – loss of 46

4—Nick Gifford (0/12) – 5/66 – loss of 31

4—Chris Gordon (3/20 – loss of 3) – 23/147 +18

3—Anthony Honeyball (2/10 – loss of 5) – 15/50 – loss of 7

2—Jim Boyle (0/2) – 1/9 – loss of 5

2—Zoe Davison (4/8 +38) – 7/75 – loss of 6

2—Johnny Farrelly (0/3) – 5/24 – slight loss

2—Warren Greatrex (1/6 +7) – 11/44 +14

2—Olly Murphy (0/1) – 0/1

2—Jeremy Scott (0/2) – 4/23 - loss of 5

2—Suzy Smith (1/6 +23) – 14/49 +89

+ 14 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hereford: This is a new meeting

Wolverhampton: £ 12.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 7th January

PLUMPTON – JANUARY 7

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £43.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Marley Firth) & 14 (Miss Tynte)

Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Rather Be) & 3 (Gregarious)

Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Harefield) & 5 (Flemenskill)

Leg 4 (2.05): 6 (Snippetydoodah), 8 (Bact To Black) & 9 (Heluvagood)

Leg 5 (2.35): 12 (Bindon Mill), 8 (Leo Luna) & 6 (Shanroe Santos)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (Finnegan’s Garden), 1 (Bramble Brook) & 2 (Ramore Will)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.30: This is simply a case of whether Dan Skelton’s MARLEY FIRTH is good enough to give so much weight to his rivals under poor conditions.  A facile winner on heavy ground at Chepstow, Dan’s Flemensfirth gelding looks a ready made winner despite the concession given his fair effort in a Grade 2 Sandown event the last day.  The current 4/5 call from Skybet looks sure to set the phones ringing in the relevant office anytime now.  MISS TYNTE will represent better value than Jaisalmer in terms of an alternative each way call of you want to take on the market leader.
Favourite factor: 18 of the last 20 winners have scored at 13/2 or less during which time, ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won.  14 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

1.05: Market leaders have a fine record in this event (see stats below) and with Nicky Henderson’s team in fine form, this looks to be something of a penalty kick for RATHER BE facing just three (ordinary) rivals. Nick’s seven-year-old Oscar gelding has threatened to be a decent type for some time now and this discipline could make a man of him.  The going is the only concern in all honesty though as a soft ground winner in the past, connections would not be happy to name conditions as a reason for being beaten in such a low grade event.  GREGARIOUS is 2/2 on soft ground whereby if the conditions are not reported to be too bad prior to flag fall, Lucy Wadham’s raider would be the forecast call.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have won to date, with ten market leaders finishing in the frame.

1.35: Five year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and if the first two favourites have obliged, there could be a ton of money running up on Alan King’s vintage representative HAREFIELD.  The treble on the first three favourites on the card equates to around the 5/2 mark at the time of writing, whilst sports mad enthusiasts will (likely as not) get greedy by including West Ham and Arsenal (televised games) in an accumulator which works out to around 10/1. Although Alan saddled 13 winners during the collective months of November/December, the relevant gold medallists scored at a disappointing 10% strike rate on behalf of the yard, whereby Alan will be hoping to pick up the thread now in the new year.  The trainer certainly seems to have found a golden opportunity for his recent Warwick winner, whilst Wayne Hutchinson’s mount will be less troubled by conditions that most I’ll wager.  FLEMENSKILL can put his Aintree debut effort to good use by following the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance in all probability.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 13 winners have scored at 9/2 or less, stats which include four winning favourites.  Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

 

2.05: Bookmakers will welcome this event to get some more horses into their ledgers (I’m showing my age again) compared to the opening three events on the card.  I’m offering each way/Placepot opportunities for two outsiders here, namely SNIPPETYDOODAH and HELUVAGOOD.  The first named course and distance winner was the subject of some overnight support, whilst Vic Darnall (fine record at this venue down the years) saddles Heluvagood whose 20/1 quote catches the eye in this grade/company.  More logical winners include CAFÉ AU LAIT and BACT TO BLACK I guess but something has to give on the Placepot card in order for a decent dividend to be declared and this race looks set up to give the majority of the layers a break.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one to good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

1/4—Yukon Deelta (good)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.35: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, as have 22 of the 33 horses which have secured toteplacepot/each way positions in the ‘Sussex National’ to date.  Nine-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of BINDON MILL, LEO LUNA and SHANROE SANTOS. The reserve nomination is awarded to SHOTGUN PADDY.
Favourite factor: Six of the 12 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date though we still await our first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Sussex National’:

1/4—Coolking (heavy)

3/12—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – soft)

3.10:  As a maiden following 15 assignments to date, bookmakers will happily accommodate BRAMBLE BROOK though from a Placepot perspective, the chance for Colin Tizzard’s raider to reach the frame is there for all to see.  FINNEGAN’S GARDEN has a soft ground course victory to his name and with Zoe Davidson boasting the best seasonal (strike rate) stats on offer at Plumpton this term, Zoe’s nine-year-old has to be included in the mix.  RAMORE WILL completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualiry for each way/Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ramore Will (good)

1/1—Spock (good)

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6/36 – loss of 6 points) – 162/891 – loss of 11

5—Daniel Steele (0/2) – 6/48 +1

3—Nick Gifford (0/9) – 28/196 loss of 24

3—Chris Gordon (3/17 – slight loss) – 35/258 +20

3—Dan Skelton (5/14 – loss of 2) – 7/32 – loss of 14

3—Lucy Wadham (0/1) – 9/63 – loss of 15

2—Vic Dartnall ((First runners here this season) – 6/19 +9

2—Zoe Davison (4/7 +39) – 17/213 – loss of 33

2—Warren Greatrex (1/4 +9) – 15/67 +5

2—Linda Jewell (1/10 –loss of 1) – 23/364 – loss of 128

2—Neil King (1/10 – loss of 3) – 23/154 +6

2—Emma Lavelle (First runners here this season) – 25/121 +18

2—Nick Mitchell (0/1) – 2/29 – loss of 15

2—Neil Mulholland (4/16 – loss of 5) – 17/114 – loss of 23

2—Richard Rowe (0/5) – 43/444 – loss of 201

2—Colin Tizzard (2/11 – loss of 2) – 34/216 – loss of 2

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 14 (Lisp)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Fixe Le Cap) & 3 (Not Another Muddle)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Sam Brown), 1 (Delire D’Estruval) & 3 (New To This Town)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (City Supreme), 4 (Leith Hill Lad) & 5 (Talk Of The South)

Leg 5 (2.25): 7 (Café Au Lait) & 2 (Le Capriceux)

Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Stoical Patient), 6 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 4 (Easter In Paris)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Gary Moore has secured three of the four renewals to date, having saddled the silver medallist in the race that eluded the stable.  Penalised runners have won three of the four contests thus far whereby Gary Moore’s KNOCKNANUSS has been well placed by the trainer who seemingly only has LISP to worry about.  Layers are offering ‘14/1 bar the two’ at the time of writing and from a Placepot perspective, there seems to be little reason why I should waste any more time on the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though the one favourite of the trio that did not actually win its respected event was sent off as a beaten 1/4 chance twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

12.50: Nicky Henderson saddled the beaten 1/4 favourite in the opening event last year whereby punters might take that stat as a sobering thought before wading into Nicky’s only runner on the card today, namely FIXE LE CAP.  That said, connections will probably take the view that any problem here is likely to be in front of the Kapgarde gelding (relating to the fences) rather than a realistic threat from his three rivals, albeit NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE is certainly a horse with ability.  With only five races under his belt as a six-year-old, Gary Moore’s soft ground Fontwell winner has not been the easiest horse to handle, though I can’t see either of the other pair really troubling the afore mentioned contenders, though SILVERHOW will surely claim the bronze medal if the race pans out as suggested.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

 

1.20: Five-year-olds have won half (6/12) of the recent contests, with SAM BROWN looking to extend the good run of vintage representatives in this novice hurdle event.  Anthony Honeyball has his runners in fine fettle just now, producing stats of 12/52 since the end of October, figures which have realised five points of level stake profit.  Unfortunately for connections, Ben Pauling (DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL) and Colin Tizzard (NEW TO THIS TOWN) are also in fine form and this trio look set to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a seven timer, whilst nine of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

1.50: Horses carrying 11-6 or more come into the gig having won the last four renewals and six of the last eight contests.  CIIY SUPREME and LEITH HILL LAD (listed in order of preference) represent some each way value from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, whilst TALK OF THE SOUTH is added into the Placepot equation.  The lads/lasses in the trade press office were fanciful in suggesting that BEARS RAILS would start at 3/1 but then again, the current 15/8 quote does not offer any value and somewhere down the line, I have to speculate that there is a race on the card that could produce the spark to ignite the Placepot flame.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, nine of the ten winners scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst the other gold medallist could hardly be classed as a no-hoper having previaled at 12/1.  That said, only two of the last six market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—City Supreme (heavy)

1/5—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/11—Frank N Fair (good & good to soft)

 

2.25: Results were against the punters until the last three favourites obliged and potential investors must have wished that the 9/4 suggestion in the trade press about CAFE AU LAIT was a realistic quote.  The best price on offer at the time of writing is 5/6 and it’s doubtful if the market leader is going into odds against territory given the lack of strength relating to his rivals.  Only in June and September this year has Dan Shelton failed to notch double figure win totals and even then, the trainer boasted a 17% strike rate which many handlers would be happy to achieve on a long term basis.  The writing was on the wall in the 2013/14 season when Dan secured 73 winners which nearly trebled the tally from the previous term.  Now needing just one gold medallist to match last year’s total of 118, I’m not sure just how much people really appreciate this meteoric rise in such a short career.   The two youngest (six-year-old) rivals might chase CAFÉ AU LAIT home on this occasion, namely LE CAPRICEUX and BLUE APRIL.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 17/2.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Thundering Home (good to soft)

2/12—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Two defectors have potentially put this event into ‘win only’ territory which could make all the difference to the eventual Placepot dividend.  Yes, STOICAL PATIENT should land the hat trick in this grade/company but because of the uncertainty relating to the number of participants, I’m including FINNEGAN’S GARDEN and EASTER IN PARIS in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  That said, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1; hence my worry relating to a potential ‘win only’ event unfolding.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Stoical Patient (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled (in brackets) on the corresponding card during the last five years:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6)

5—Anthony Honeyball (1)

4—Paul Henderson (1)

3—Diana Grissell

3—Colin Tizzard (1)

2—Zoe Davidson (1)

2—Nick Gifford (1)

2—Linda Jewell (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—Seamus Mullins

2—Brendan Powell (1)

2—Dan Skelton

2—Sam Thomas

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £57.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £370.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 8 (Piton Pete) & 9 (Puppet Warrior)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Optimus Prime), 4 (Shamma Grise) & 3 (San Pedro De Senam)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Tambura), 7 (Act Now) & 5 (Ding Ding)

Leg 4 (2.10): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 6 (Solomon Grey)

Leg 5 (2.40): 7 (Itoldyou), 1 (Flight Commander) & 5 (Like Sully)

Leg 6 (3.10): 3 (Kristal Hart) & 7 (Our Merlin)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Although Oliver Sherwood’s 0/2 record at Plumpton this season is hardly inspiring, there are ‘only’ nine tracks up and down the country where the trainer has saddled more winners (30 in total), stats which have been gained via a 19% strike rate.  Oliver appears to have found a decent opportunity for PITON PETE to score at the sixth time of asking, having secured two medals of both the silver and bronze variety to date.  That said, I would not go wading into the 10/11 on offer at the time of writing but his Placepot credentials are there for all to see.  Nick Gifford saddled a winner last week and his PUPPET WARRIOR will probably offer better value for money than the Tizzard representative Battle Of Ideas, particularly when considering your Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Plumpton on Monday.

 

1.10: I find trouble in dismissing a Harry Fry 14/1 raider in a four runner race usually, but Behind Time looks to be potentially outclassed here whilst reporting that since the start of November, only one of the 29 races in which just four runners contested an event, just one (4/1) winner has emerged.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although OPTIMUS PRIME is not in the same league (respectfully) as last year’s winner Top Notch, Dan Skelton’s raider looks good enough to build on his successful Worcester debut in this green and pleasant land in this grade/company, despite giving upwards of five pounds to his rivals.  That said, SHAMMA GRISE and SAN PEDRO DE SENAM cannot be eliminated in this ‘win only’ contest given the potential of the Placepot dividend should either of them score.
Favourite factor: The distinctly useful Top Notch becamethe third successive winning odds on favourite in this event twelve months ago.

 

1.40: All five winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory which will aid and abet the chances of fellow course winners ACT NOW and DING DING (winner on this card last year) though from my viewpoint, TAMBURA boasts a half decent chance of gaining her third successive success in the race, especially as she is three pounds lower than when defending her crown successfully twelve months ago under the same projected (good to soft) conditions.  The ground will also suit the other course winners and this trio are speculative selections against more fancied rivals who will have to beat the weight trend if they are to score.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful (11/4**, 9/4 & 15/8) favourites via five renewals.

Record of the course winners in the field:

3/6—Tambura (2 x soft & good to soft)

4/11—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Act Now (soft & heavy)

 

2.10: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals but I am inclined to dismiss the vintage trend (shock horror) on this occasion, with KNOCKNANUSS and SOLOMAN GREY having been declared.  Gary Moore’s local first named raider obviously does not take a great deal of racing but when he is offered the green light, the Beneficial gelding rarely lets his supporters down, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  In terms of Placepot consistency, the same can be said about Dan Skelton’s representative SOLOMON GREY.
Favourite factor: All six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4, 4/6, 4/6 & 4/7) winners.

Record of the course winners in the field:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

2.40: ITOLD YOU won this event back in 2013 and the 15/2 quote by Betfair and Paddy Power could prove popular this morning I’ll wager.  LIKE SULLY has won all three of his 22 assignments over obstacles here at Plumpton and Richard Rowe’s nine year-old is another outsider to consider, albeit Oliver Sherwood’s FLIGHT COMMANDER is probably a more logical call in terms of winning the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via eight renewals thus far, statistics which include five (5/4--7/4—13/8—2/1—7/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/8—Flashman (good to firm & good to soft)

3/10—Like Sully (good – soft – heavy)

2/11—Itoldyou (good & good to soft)

2/15—Venetian Lad (2 x good)

1/10—Frank N Fair (good)

 

3.10: I am reverting to a tried and trusted formula in the Placepot finale, hoping that some of my earlier outsiders on the card have reached the frame.  I have made the point before that if in doubt, it’s as well to offer two shorter priced horses in the last leg whereby we can ‘lay off’ from a place perspective at very short odds on the exchanges, should a potentially decent dividend be in the offing.  The only problem on this occasion is that if the field is reduced down to less than eight runners, place betting on the exchanges are different to the ruling on the Placepot so keep your eyes peeled for non runners before considering ‘laying off’, if you have reached this point ‘intact’ from a Placepot viewpoint. KRISTAL HART and OUR MERLIN are my pair against the field in this ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has claimed a Placepot position to date without winning its respective event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (4/22 +11)

4—Oliver Sherwood (0/2)

3—Nick Gifford (0/4)

3—Linda Jewell (1/5 +4)

3—Dan Skelton (3/9 – loss of 1 point)

2—Brian Barr (0/1)

2—Paul Henderson (First runners at the track this season)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3)

2—Chris Gordon (3/14 +2)

2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)

2—Neil Mullholland (4/12 – loss of 1 point)

2—David Pipe (1/1 +5)

2—Richard Rowe (0/2)

2—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

Southwell (A/W): Another new meeting

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday's...

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey's yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today's jockey Robert Dunne.

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he's one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today's race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows...

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday's...

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey's yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today's jockey Robert Dunne.

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he's one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today's race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows...

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!