Tag Archive for: Plumpton racecourse

Tix Picks, Monday 16/12/24

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Monday's racing comes from Naas, Plumpton, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Wolverhampton...

 

...and I'll take a look at Plumpton where the going is expected to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.40...Epic West was an easy 7.5 length winner on debut at Carlisle four weeks ago on soft ground and should go well again dropped back slightly in trip for a yard with a 31% win and 59% place strike rate with runners on their second start. Touquet has won over course and distance and is two from four so far with a 1 from 2 record in bumpers and also the same over hurdles after winning first time out in each sphere. Each time, though, a step up to Class 2 was too much and he's back down in class today with his yard having a good record here (21 wins and 9 further places from 59 over the last five years)

Andashan makes a hurdling debut here and has a win and a place from two bumpers; winning a Class 4 on debut and then an excellent third of twenty at Class 2 last time out. Down in class today and his yard won this race last year. Westerton completes my shortlist even though he has yet to transfer his Flat ability over to hurdles. He made the frame in six of twelve on the Flat, winning at Class 2. He handles soft ground well, but just hasn't quite made it over hurdles yet. He was, however, only beaten by less than five lengths on his last effort and wears blinkers today.

I do think that Westerton has more to offer, but he's not at the level of the other three, who I'll be putting on the ticket builder ie (1) Epic West, (2) Touquet & (3) Andashan.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...Just five go to post and I'm not keen about Hugo's New Horse, so I'll pick from four...

Dubrovnik Harry last tackled a fence in November 2022 when 3rd of 9 at Exeter, beaten by 13 lengths as a 7/4 fav. Hasn't raced anywhere since early February either, but was a good 3rd of 14 in a Class 1 handicap hurdle. Alien Storm has only won twice in seventeen starts, but both wins have come here at Plumpton in a 2m hurdle (Oct '22) and a 2m1f chase in September of this year. Has finished third in both starts since that last win and is at least race-ready.

D'Jo Dela Barriere only won one of six PTP races, but those races have given him jumping experience and he was 4th of 10 on chase debut back in May and comes here off the back of a facile 13 length success in a Novice Hurdle at Hereford when making all five weeks ago. This is tougher, but he's clearly fit. Diplomatic Ash unseated his rider on chase debut at Kempton after being badly hampered at just the second fence, but ran creditably next/last time out when 4th of 11, beaten by 8 lengths at Lingfield five weeks ago. There's scope for improvement, I think, but he's going to need it to win this one.

It's (1) Dubrovnik Harry & (3) Alien Storm for me in this one.

Leg 3 @ 1.40...This looks a weak affair and only three horses spark any interest for me...

(1) Bold Recruit is no stranger to receiving place money, after finishing as runner-up in all three starts under Rules having also finished third and second in a pair of PTP races earlier this year. (4) Ken Roy has also run to a fairly consistent level in three starts so far, finishing third in a pair of Class 4 bumpers, before a 7-length defeat at Class 3 on hurdles debut last month. he's down in class here and his yard have a good record at this venue.

Both of the above runners are in good nick right now, but (3) Jail No Bail hasn't been seen for a week shy of thirteen months, so we'll have to take his fitness on trust (mind you, the Honeyball string are usually well tuned). He was a solid third of none at Wincanton on soft ground when last seen and gets both this trip and also soft ground.

I might as well take all three here.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Lady Balko won last time out, scoring by over six lengths at this track/trip eased down after making all on just her second crack at fences. Her hurdling form in 2024 read 211122 before the switch to fences and a 9lb rise might not stop her here. Northern Poet has won three of eight over fences, having completed a hat-trick in the spring of 2023. More 'recently' he was a solid 5th of 20 at Cheltenham (Class 3) in April and then second of four here over course and distance behind Copperhead, who has since finished 1122, all at Class 2, which bodes well and he ahs ahd wind surgery during his layoff.

Village Master had a modest three race hurdles 'career' last season finishing 577 to acquire/earn a handicap rating of just 78 prior to a switch to fences, where he went on to win his first five on the bounce in a nine-week spell, closing the season out with a win at Fontwell off a mark of 110! He never got going at all at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance, but should come on for the run. Sadler's Bay returned form a ten month break to finish a decent third of ten on soft ground, even though the trip was probably too short for him. That took his run of chase results to 42233 and although I don't expect him to win here, he will win a chase somewhere with that level of consistency.

(1) Lady Balko should be winning this ahead of (4) Village Master with little to choose between my other pair.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...Macari was disappointing over course and distance here a fortnight ago, only managing 5th of 11, 24 lengths off the winner, which was a surprise after finishing second of seven over this same track/trip four weeks earlier, going down by only half a length after a mistake at the last cost him the race. Prior to those races, he'd had a good summer (23221) in Flat handicaps, so he should be quick between hurdles and takes a drop in class here. Tara Iti has raced twice since a five month summer break and has been the runner-up in both (2m sellers). She has only been beaten by 1.25 and 4.5 lengths respectively, but the trip seemed too sharp and the extra 5f could help here.

Whynotnowroy ended last season with handicap hurdle results reading 2431, culminating in a 6.5 length win over 2m6f at Fontwell in early May ahead of a break of more than six lengths. He re-emerged to finish second of ten over that same Fontwell track/trip and should come on for the run off the same mark. Mutley Crew was game when getting off the mark on his handicap debut over 2m3½f on soft ground at Fontwell in October, when he had to dig deep to pull away by three lengths in the closing half furlong. The extra furlong and a half should help here, but he is up 6lbs for that win.

I can/could make a case for all four, but Tara Iti makes less appeal than the other three, so I'll take (1) Macari, (7) Whynotnowroy & (8) Mutley Crew here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...Just six are set to run in our finale and I think the top half of the card is where it's at...

(1) Hidalgo Des Bordes has finished 173 over fences so far and ran creditably up in trip to this distance last time out and has been eased a pound. Hasn't raced for 204 days, though, during which time he has had a wind operation.

(2) I Shut That d'Or was a course and distance winner here in early November and followed that up by finishing as a half-length runner-up at Wincanton last time out having conceded 24lbs to the winner.

(3) Mutual Respect has been running consistently well since the summer of 2023, finishing 1238112 with that 8th of 13 at Worcester excusable in September this year, as it came off a 348-day break. He runs off the same mark as his last run, which is only 2lbs higher than his win two starts ago and the only question about him is whether he handles the step up from 2m1½f to 2m4f.

I'll be taking all three from this one, though.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Epic West, (2) Touquet & (3) Andashan

Leg 2: (1) Dubrovnik Harry & (3) Alien Storm

Leg 3: (1) Bold Recruit, (3) Jail No Bail & (4) Ken Roy

Leg 4: (1) Lady Balko & (4) Village Master

Leg 5: (1) Macari, (7) Whynotnowroy & (8) Mutley Crew

Leg 6: (1) Hidalgo Des Bordes, (2) I Shut That d'Or & (3) Mutual Respect

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Racing Insights, Monday 22/01/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 1.35 Warwick
  • 3.00 Kempton
  • 3.55 Plumpton

If I'm honest, none of those four races (a 4-runner race, a mares novice hurdle, a Class 5 maiden and a Class 5 hurdle) really grab my attention. Monday racing is generally quite poor, so I'm usually quite selective about what kind of races I get involved with and wouldn't really touch those above.

So, it  should goodbye until tomorrow from me, but the show must and does go on. Therefore, I'm going to look elsewhere and tackle the day's richest and joint highest-rated race, the 2.45 Plumpton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a left-handed 3m 2.63f (3m 1f 152yds, plus 207yds rail movement) on good ground that is currently softer in places and with showers expected, it will probably stay that way. Here's the card...

None of these won last time out and only Fidux (a 2.25 length runner-up) made the frame, whilst Only The Bold, Cyclop, Blade Runner and Northern Poet were all pulled up. In fact the first three named of those four pulled up, were also pulled up in their penultimate runs too. That said Blade Runner is 2 from 4, 3 from 7 and 5 from 10 and Northern Poet is 3 from 4 and Blade Runner is down two classes here, as are the joint top-weights Larry and Only the Bold.

Cyclop drops down a class here too, but Fidux now steps up from Class 4, although his 10lb claim jockey retains the ride. Tip Top Mountain and Northern Poet return from breaks of 11 weeks and 3 months respectively, as their rivals have all been out in the last five weeks or so.

Only The Bold, Lord Accord, Fidux and Jacamar are all yet to win here at Plumpton, mind you Jacamar's run here in April is the only time any of the four have been here. As for the trip, Larry, Fidux and Jacamar await their first wins over similar distances, but four of the field (Cyclop, Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain) have all won over course and distance...

Some respectable efforts on good/good to soft ground aside from Larry's 2 from 14 and all of those with three or more Class 3 runs have done well enough. Jacamar is the only one to have failed to win here of those who have raced on this track, whilst the trip looks too much for Fidux. He might only be 0 from 4 at similar distances, but the bigger picture is that he has 0 wins from 16 beyond 2m7f! Blade Runner

Pace is today's free feature and our pace analyser shows us this...

...suggesting that we'd be better off backing a horse who races prominently or leads, especially from a place perspective, but how will we know how they'll run until the race is actually underway? Well, we track how every horse runs in every race and the pace tab shows us their last four running styles, enabling us to make an informed decision (or educated guess!) as to what tactics they might employ and that data looks like this...

...where 4 =-led, 3 = raced prominently, 2 = ran in mid-field and 1 = was held-up. So we can quickly see that Tip Top Mountain likes to lead. Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet look like prominent runners with Only The Bold and Blade Runner running in mid-division with Jacamar, Cyclop and Larry racing further back, somewhat like this...

Summary

Despite being pulled up last time out Blade Runner and Northern Poet have been in great form, as has bottom weight Tip Top Mountain, whilst the horses catching my eye on Instant Expert were Blade Runner, Northern Poet, Tip Top Mountain and Cyclop with Tip Top Mountain, Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet the takeaways from the pace analysis.

Which from the data above points to Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain being the ones of most interest to me. Blade Runner has failed to complete his last two races but has plenty of recent wins in his form line, he loves it here at Plumpton and if he does run here (also declared at Lingfield on Sunday in a much tougher race), he's be my one to beat here at 11/2 with Hills.

I do think the other pair, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain will go well, but at 13/2 the former is just a bit short for an E/W bet for me, but I'm quite happy to have a small punt at 14's on Tip Top Mountain from an E/W perspective.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where neither generate obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Plumpton
  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 5.10 Dundalk

I'm not a big fan of Irish A/W racing and that Plumpton race is a Novice affair, so I'll swerve that. There is, however, a veterans staying chase on the same card which might be interesting, so let's have a quick look at the 2.25 Plumpton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 10yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed trip of what will be just over 3m2½f after rail movements on largely good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but Iconoc Muddle and Trincomalee were runners-up. Mind you, I'm not sure the latter's run is too relevant as he hasn't raced for some 635 days since that effort and only Commanche Red (682 days) has been away longer and you'd have to think these guys would need the run.

Elsewhere only I See You Well, Shanty Alley and Burrows Park are winless in seven (8, 13 and 8 to be exact), whilst both Domaine de L'isle and Juniper have failed to finish three of their last four, although the latter had won his previous three!

Domaine de L'isle is actually down two classes here, but I See You Well is up a level, despite his losing run. We know that two of the field haven't raced in 21 months or longer, but aside from Juniper's three month absence, the remainder have all raced in the last four weeks, so most should be race ready for a race where only Iconic Muddle and Commanche Red have yet to win over a similar trip, but both have won on this track before, as has Trincomalee, whilst I See You Well is 2 from 2 over course and distance and 3 from 4 over 3m2f here with Instant Expert looking like this...

...where I See You Well has the best set of figures and the most concerns surround Shanty Alley at class/trip, although none of these exactly set the world alight, even from a place perspective...

From a pace perspective, you're probably going to want to be on a horse that's relatively keen to get on with things...

and I suspect that Burrows Park and Shanty Alley will attempt to set the tone of the race...

...if their last four runs are anything to go by.

Summary

The two horses I like most are Iconic Muddle after his most recent run and I See You Well based on Instant Expert, but neither have a great pace profile for this contest. That said, those who head the pace charts fall down on other areas; Burrows Park is winless in 8 and has no form under these conditions, whilst Shanty Alley looked the worst on Instant Expert and has won just 2 of 22 over fences.

Juniper and Domaine de L'isle have been pulled up in three of their last four, whilst Commanche Red and Trincomalee will probably need the run which brings me back to Iconic Muddle and I See You Well, having found reasons not to back the other six, which is sometimes how it works.

I See You Well was available at 11/1 at 5.55pm on Monday and that could be a nice E/W price about a horse who loves it here at Plumpton (6 wins from 13 overall), whilst Iconic Muddle would be my preferred winner and 4/1 seems fair.

Racing Insights, Monday 18/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Plumpton
  • 2.55 Musselburgh
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

...of which, the first is the highest-rated on a day of fairly mediocre standard racing across three fixtures. The race is the 2.10 Plumpton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground...

Bottom-weight Guguss Collonges brings the best recent results to the table as our only LTO winner and has won two of his last three, as also has Tip Top Mountain, but was 7th here over course and distance recently. Sublime Heights is 2 from 5 and Henschke won two races ago, but half of the field are winless in five (or more!) starts.

All of these have had a run in the last six weeks, so all should be race-ready. The top five in the weights are all dropping down from Class 3, whilst the two at the bottom of the card/weights are both up a class here. Movethechains is winless in six, so his yard have decided to apply blinkers for the first time and have installed a 10lb claimer to lighten the load.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Henschke, Special Acceptance & Uallrightharry) have already scored over course and distance, whilst Guguss Collonges has won a 2m4f chase here previously. Milan Bridge (from legendary sire Milan) won a 3m2f hurdle at Hereford back in March 2022, but Movethechains and Almazhar Garde have won at neither track nor trip, although they have both landed events at slightly shorter distances as shown on Instant Expert below...

...where Tip Top Mountain is the immediate eye-catcher and top-weight I See You Well only appears to be let down by his 1 from 10 record on good to soft, which is strange, as he's 5 from 18 on Good and 2 from 8 on Soft, so you'd have expected him to have fared better on good to soft? Sublime Heights has less experience under these conditions, but has fared well enough whilst Movethechains should relish the trip on good to soft ground.

Monday's free feature is access to the pace profile for all races, showing how horses have run in their last few outings and for this race, it looks like this...

...with the in-form Guguss Collonges and Instant Expert eyecatcher Tip Top Mountain showing as confirmed front-runners, whilst I'd expect Special Acceptance to be held up in a race that hasn't been particularly kind to front-runners in the past...

Summary

When assessing recent form allied to the collateral relevant results via Instant Expert and also the pace data above, we're getting a mixed message.

On form, I'd want to be with Guguss Collonges, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and maybe Henschke, whilst Instant Expert suggested Tip Top Mountain, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Movethechains, whilst only Special Acceptance and I See You Well look like being held up.

So, none of them tick all three boxes, but Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and I See You Well feature twice, but to be honest with you, you can make a case for most of the field here, so I won't be having a bet.

If I was, though, I'd probably take Tip Top Mountain to win (5/1 with Hills at 3.45pm) and maybe a small E/W play on Sublime Heights (currently 10's), but aside from Milan Bridge and Uallrightharry (a pair I'm not keen on), any of these could win/place in what looks a competitive affair.

Racing Insights, Monday 04/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.45 Plumpton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...none of which I fancy, sadly, so I'm going to look at the highest rated and most valuable race of the day, the 2.45 Plumpton, a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f (but nearer to 2m5½f after a 174yds rail adjustment) on good to soft ground...

The Height of Fame and A Tickatickatiming both won last time out and the latter has won to of her last four. All the Glory was a runner-up most recently and has won two from six with three runner-up finishes, so she's pretty consistent. Ilovethenightlife was pulled up on her last run but has won two from four. Iorens and Pretending are both winless over hurdles after four and six efforts respectively whilst Belles Benefit has won just once in nineteen attempts.

Belles Benefit's cause probably won't be helped by stepping up two classes either, as The Height of Fame, Pretending, All The Glory & A Tickatickatiming all step up one level with the last-named duo making their handicap debuts here. Top weight Ilovethenightlife actually drops down a class, leaving Iorens as the only one to have raced at this grade last time out, but that was some 277 days and she might well now need the run, especially as the others have all raced in the last seven weeks (five of them in the last two to four weeks).

A Tickatickatiming won here LTO over 2m four weeks ago and she's 2 from 3 here and is the only previous course winner in the field, whilst Ilovethenightlife's 2m5f win at Newbury and The Height of Fame's multiple 2m5½f successes are the only ones we've seen at this kind of trip. Instant Expert has these and other relevant stats, of course...

...where the standout stat is The Height of Fame's suitability for the trip. As mentioned, A Tickatickatiming goes weel here and has also won her sole effort on good to soft ground, unlike All The Glory who is only 1 from 8. Belles Benefit's win record at 2m4f to 2m6f is very poor and the following place stats aren't that encouraging for her either...

They do, however, present a very case for All The Glory making the frame even if her win records aren't good.

Today's feature is the PACE side of the equation and our Pace Analyser tells us we'd be best suited by backing a front-runner or prominent type...

Ideally we want a horse who scores 3 or more on our pace profiling and thankfully, by clicking the pace tab, we can see how this field usually runs and we have four horses with at least three scores of 3 or more in their last four outings...

...and these four would be the ones I'd look at firstly. That said, I don't think Belles Benefit is going to have much chance here, so I'd be taking All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame as my three against the field.

Summary

From All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame that I've taken from the pace stats, All The Glory has the best place record under these conditions, but doesn't win often enough. That said, she's available at 13/2 and that's a decent E/W option in my opinion, especially if your bookie is paying three places.

As for a winner, I think The Height of Fame edges it via a superior record at today's type of trip and she's currently the 3/1 fav. I'd expect her to beat A Tickatickatiming, whose own 5/1 ticket isn't long enough for me to consider an E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.30 Plumpton
  • 3.20 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Kempton
  • 6.00 Kempton

The 'best' of those races would appear to be the 3.20 Plumpton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

NO RISK WITH LOU won on his hurdles debut a year ago and then also won on his chase debut at Huntingdon last time out, making virtually all on his way to a 7-lengfth success five weeks ago. Up 8lbs for the win, but should go well again.

RED WINDSOR made the frame in three (won once) of his five hurdles outings, but looked like he needed the run when last of 4 (85 lengths adrift) on chasing debut six weeks ago. He jumped well enough but just seemed to run out of steam.

GITCHE GUMEE won a bumper on debut in March '22 and then won next time out on hurdles debut some seven months later. Aside from a fall at Southwell two starts ago, has hurdled well in five subsequent runs and now makes a chasing & handicap debut seven months after his last outing.

KOTMASK started his career with back to back wins over hurdles (one at Class 2) and last season's hurdle form read 4322. Made a chasing debut at Kempton four weeks ago and defied a seven month layoff to finish third, beaten by less than seven lengths and should improve for the experience and for having had a run.

BONARC has yet to make the frame in five efforts over fences and has lost his last ten races in total since a win at Kilbeggan 18 months ago. His last run run saw him finish last of four at Sligo, some 47 lengths adrift and others look better placed here.

AVILES has been a runner-up in all five UK starts to date, including today (Sunday) at Fontwell, which puts his participation here in doubt, but having only gone down by a nose on chasing debut today, could be dangerous off a lowly mark of just 104.

All bar Aviles (obviously) and Red Windsor have scored over this type of trip in the UK, but we've no former course winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Bonarc might well be all at sea on the going and at this grade, whilst his record at the trip is no better, so I'm happy to rule him out of contention right away. Elsewhere, we've admittedly not much data to work with, but Kotmask does at least seem like he'll relish the softness of the turf and that thought is backed up by his place data...

...which also highlights Aviles' continued door-knocking.

Pace is Monday's free feature and a quick click of the PACE tab for this race brings us to a screen like this...

...which suggests that Red Windsor will set the pace and Bonarc will be held up and if we consult our Pace Analyser for similar past races...

...we see that those racing further forward fare best, but leaders find themselves prone to being picked up by the stalking prominent runner late on. This looks better news for Aviles & No Risk With Lou than the others.

Summary

I don't like Bonarc at all, Gitche Gumme makes a handicap/chasing debut after a long layoff and pace-setter Red Windsor has a tendency to fade late on, so I'm against these three.

No Risk With Lou was very impressive on chase debut last time out and there's probably more to come from him, he fits the pace profile well and should put a decent effort in here, even if Instant Expert is against him. Kotmask was the pick on Instant Expert and was in good hurdling form last season. He has had the benefit of a recent pipe-opener over fences and should go well again, but the pace stats are against him, whilst Aviles is ultra-consistent (five runner-up finishes on the bonce) but always finds one too good for him.

None of the trip are a shoo-in, but 9/4 fav No Risk With Lou probably shades it based on his winning run last time out with little to separate the other pair, providing Aviles runs, that is.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/11/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.20 Hereford
  • 3.30 Kempton
  • 4.07 Plumpton
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

The Kempton contest is a Listed race, but only four runners are set to go to post, so 'next best' of those races above is the 3.07 Plumpton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground...

Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain all won last time out and the latter comes here on a hat-trick having been in great form last season, winning his last two, three from five and four from seven. Shanty Alley is the only one without a win in the recent formline, having suffered eleven consecutive defeats. He has made the frame in five of those defeats (inc 4 x runner-up), but has also failed to finish five of them (1 x UR and 4 xPU)!

Lots of class movement here, as only I See You Well, Ballinsker, Wake Up Early and Midnight Mary ran at Class 3 last time around. Up The Straight and Dom of Mary both drop down from Class 2, but the other seven runners all step up a class here with Kayf Hernando running for the first time since wind surgery and Sublime Heights wears a first-time tongue tie.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Island Run, Wake Up Early, Blade Runner, Sublime Heights and Up The Straight) have had the benefit of a run in the last 13-31 days, but their seven rivals have been off the track for five to seven months, which might be a disadvantage here.

Up The Straight and Ballinsker have both won 2mf chases here at Plumpton, whilst Wouldubewell, Shanty Alley and Midnight Mary have won over similar trips to today at other tracks. I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner are course and distance winners, but Kayf Hernando, Dom of Mary, Wake Up Early and Island Run have won at neither track nor trip, as demonstrated by Instant Expert below...

...where the highlights include Tip Top Mountain's 2 from 3 on good to soft, his 2 from 3 at Plumpton and his 2 from 2 at the trip. I See You Well (5/9), Blade Runner (3/4) and Sublime Heights (3/5) have good records here, whilst those liking this trip include Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner all with multiple wins and a strike rate og 50% or higher.

The place stats look like this...

...and after removing any horse with any amber or red boxes, I'd suggest these were the ones best suited/more likely to 'get' the conditions...

Past similar 10+ runner races here at Plumpton have favoured horses held up for a run...

...but we don't have that many in this field, according to the Pace tab, which shows us how this field have approached their last four outings...

...but I'd expect the bottom trio to be close to the back of the pack.

Summary

I think that Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Blade Runner and Island Run are going to be best suited by conditions, but I'm going discount Sublime Heights from that list, due to long losing run and the fact that he's unreliable.

Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain are the two bringing the best set of recent results to the table and although I think I like the latter more than the former, he might well need the run after 197 days off, whilst the former raced just 24 days ago. With that in mind, I'd be inclined to suggest Blade Runner as the winner here, but his current odds of 4/1 fav aren't particularly generous/attractive, but I'd be happy with 10/1 E/W from Bet365 about Tip Top Mountain.

I'd also expect the 6/1 pair Kayf Hernando & Island Run to be in the shake-up.