Posts

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th February

WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £762.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 3 (Crown Walk) & 1 (Feathery)

Leg 2 (5.40): 2 (Iconic Sunset), 1 (Battle Lines) & 4 (Illusional)

Leg 3 (6.10): 6 (Star Archer) & 7 (Qaffaal)

Leg 4 (6.40): 3 (Haines) & 2 (Dubawi Fifty)

Leg 5 (7.10): 8 (Camino), 5 (Barnsdale) & 7 (Lambrini Legacy)

Leg 6 (7.40): 8 (Sir Harry Collins), 9 (Storm Lightning) & 10 (Go Charlie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: Three-year-olds have won all nine renewals to date, albeit via the thick end of 70% of the total number of runners.  Junior raiders are 2/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into account, with three-year-old CROWN WALK listed ahead of four-year-old FEATHERY on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Ignoring the Novice status of this event which suggests it is a new contest, six of the last seven market leaders claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  Government health warning; I notice that the distance of this event has changed as well, whereby you might want to take the ‘new race’ as read.  For this reason, I will not be continuing the stats next year, marking this as the ‘new regime’.

 

5.40: Mark Johnston has long since been known as the leading trainer of three-year-old handicappers north of Watford whereby ILLUSIONAL will be a popular choice.  Intensive study down the years has illustrated to yours truly that the negative profit/loss figures for James Tate purely suggests that his winners invariably score when well backed whereby ICONIC SUNSET (attracting money on the exchanges as I write in the dead of night) must be included in the equation.  BATTLE LINES is a stable companion of ICONIC SUNSET whose odds have retracted as well which complicates matters.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished out of the frame before last year’s market leader frustratingly finished fourth for those that included the favourite in the Placepot mix.

 

6.10: Four-year-old STAR ARCHER comes to the gig on a hat trick, with vintage representatives having secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via less than 25% of the total number of runners. STAR ARCHER also happens to be the only runner on the Placepot card at Wolverhampton with a 100% strike rate at the track, albeit via just the one relevant assignment to date.  Last year’s winner PACTOLUS is a threat on the best of his form, whilst QAFFAAL looks too big at 15/2 in a place (Betbright) in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only first two horse home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Three market leaders had all claimed Placepot positions (including one 6/4) winner) before last year’s 3/1 market leader let the side down.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/3—Mount Tahan

3/6—Pactolus

1/3—Third Time Lucky

1/1—Star Archer

1/3—Qaffaal

 

6.40:  HAINES has been found a fine opportunity to follow up his win in this race last year, albeit the Andrew Balding raider’s ratio at the track has slipped to less than 17% in recent times.  Only DUBAWI FIFTY is being backed to beat Andrew’s Shirocco gelding at the time of writing, whilst Velvet Revolution looks booked for the bronze medal in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ as indicated in the trade press because this event was run on the Wednesday of this week last year instead of the Monday.  As suggested before, don’t believe ALL you read!

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Haines

1/2—Velvet Revolution

 

7.10: Although there are six course winners in the field, it is worth noting that their aggregate ratio via seven victories to date stands at just 12.5%, a stat which will offer layers plenty of confidence going into the last two Placepot events.  Nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which offers tentative chances to the likes of CAMINO. BARNSDALE and LAMBRINI LEGACY.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/6—Emjayem

2/5—Little Nosegay

2/13—Novabridge

1/8—Mostasheeqah

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/24—Spoken Words

 

7.40: This is the second division of the previous race whereby the same weight stats apply.  Another six course winners (as in the first division) line up but in this instance, their collective  current Wolverhampton ratio stands at 11.5%, even though 15 success have been recorded!  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that SIR HARRY COLLINS, STORM LIGHTNING and GO CHARLIE can snare a Placepot position or two between them, hopefully landing the dividend on our behalf.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply; eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/8—See Vermont

1/15—Roy’s Legacy

5/45—Your Gifted

1/16—Storm Lightning

1/11—Go Charlie

6/36—Give Us A Belle

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wolverhampton card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) ratios and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Michael Appleby (2/26 – loss of 11 points) – 57/498 – loss of 137

3—Alan Berry (0/1) – 1/60 – loss of 55

3—Richard Fahey (1/12 - +5) – 64/509 – loss of 50

3—Lisa Williamson (0/4) – 10/203 – loss of 93

2—Michael Attwater (First runners at Wolves this season) – 4/32 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/8 +41) – 5/40 +51

2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – loss of 3) – 15/112 – loss of 53

2—Marco Botti (1/3 – slight loss) – 45/256 – loss of 3

2—Mark Brisbourne (0/6) – 10/218 – loss of 136

2—David Loughnane (0/14) – 2/58 – level via profit/loss

2—Karen McLintock (0/2) – 4/11 +6

2—James Tate (1/3 – slight profit) – 35/207 – loss of 39

2—Karen Tutty (0/1) – 2/19 – loss of 12

2—Ian Williams (0/11) – 31/244 – loss of 10

2—Stuart Williams (1/8 – level via profit/loss) – 22/130 – loss of 35

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £44.00 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Plumpton: £717.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 29th January

PLUMPTON – JANUARY 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Weebill), 1 (Canyouringmeback) & 5 (Paddy’s Poem)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Le Coeur Net), 8 (Sir Hubert) & 3 (Two Hoots)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (My Dance) & 3 (Puppet Warrior)

Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Clondaw Bisto), 4 (Ballyheigue Bay) & 6 (Sandhurst Lad)

Leg 5 (3.55): 2 (Act Now) & 1 (Leo Lunar)

Leg 6 (4.25): 4 (Be Daring), 1 (Argyle) & 9 (Sixites Idol)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Seven-year-olds have secured four of the last eight available Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 10/11*) winners.  Nick Gifford’s PADDY’S POEM makes far more appeal that the other vintage raider on this occasion, albeit only from a Placepot perspective.  More logical winners from my viewpoint include stable companion CANYOURINGMEBACK and (especially) WEEBILL.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two (10/11 & 1/10) winners.  That said, last year’s 1/4 market leader was beaten from a win perspective.

 

2.25: You can comfortably ignore the 5/1 trade press call about LE COEUR NET as Anthony Honeyball looks to add to his impressive tally this season.  Although the relevant horses have not produced a level stake profit over the last five years, Anthony’s 30% strike rate at the track during the period makes for impressive reading and his three runners this afternoon warrant plenty of respect.  SIR HUBERT and TWO HOOTS are likely to give each way supporters a decent run for their collective investments.

Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame via four renewals.  That is as many as there could have been as the favourite that missed out contested a ‘win only’ event.

 

2.55: MY DANCE in the second of the three Honeyball runners on the card and this Midnight Legend mare looks something out of the ordinary, a little like her mum (My Petra) who was a really good sort herself, finishing ‘in the three’ in 20/33 assignments.  A winner of a Grade 2 chase into the bargain, My Petra looks to have passed off plenty of ability to MY DANCE who looks destined for far better things if she can take this event in her stride.  PUPPET WARRIOR provides half decent opposition however, though the other pair look to be up against it in this ‘win only’ event.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/2 favourite duly obliged.

 

3.25:  Eight of the nine available Placepot positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 11-4, statistics which include all four (16/1, 4/1, 4/1 & 2/1*) winners.  Suzy Smith has saddled 14 winners here at Plumpton during the last five years, a total the she has achieved at all the other tracks in the county – combined!  Stable representative CLONDAW BISTO will not mind the ground and the course winner also qualifies via the weight trend.  Two horses that run from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap that might still represent a little value are SANDHURST LAD (though the ground will be plenty deep enough for him) and BALLYHEIGUE BAY who hails from the in form yard of Chris Gordon who won with his only runner (Remiluc) at 20/1 at Cheltenham on Saturday.  An interesting event, given that seven of the eight runners have previously won here at Plumpton.  Please form an orderly queue outside the betting shops across the land for those of the you that want to back the ‘missing’ runner, namely Plantagenet!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged though that said, the other four favourites (via three further renewals) finished out of the frame.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—No Buts (heavy)

3/7—Tambura (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/6—Saucysioux (heavy)

1/4—Ballyheigue Bay (good to soft)

1/w—Clondaw Bisto (heavy)

1/1—Sandhurst Lad (good to soft)

1.1—Jully Les Buxy (heavy)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.55: There is plenty of money in the (realistic) positive exchange queue for LEO LUNA at the time of writing, so much so that favouritism against Clondaw Rigger is warming up at the time of writing.  The third Honeyball runner ACT NOW is no forlorn hope this afternoon, whilst the other option in the contest according to the gospel of yours truly is Frank N Fair.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader prevailed.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

2/3—Act Now (soft & heavy)

2/13—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

3/13—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—Howlongisafoot (good)

 

4.25: Five-year-olds have won the last two renewals when represented, with ARGYLE preferred to SIXTIES IDOL this time around, albeit both horses will be included in my Placepot permutation.  From win perspective however, the call has to be BE DARING, given that in form trainer Chris Gordon goes in search of a hat trick in the race, having won the last two renewals with returned favourites.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective event at odds of 2/1 and 11/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

2/2—Drive On Locky (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this year + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Gary Moore (8/44 – loss of 2 points) – 51/262 – loss of 20

5—Seamus Mullins (2/13 +2) – 14/123 – loss of 46

4—Nick Gifford (0/12) – 5/66 – loss of 31

4—Chris Gordon (3/20 – loss of 3) – 23/147 +18

3—Anthony Honeyball (2/10 – loss of 5) – 15/50 – loss of 7

2—Jim Boyle (0/2) – 1/9 – loss of 5

2—Zoe Davison (4/8 +38) – 7/75 – loss of 6

2—Johnny Farrelly (0/3) – 5/24 – slight loss

2—Warren Greatrex (1/6 +7) – 11/44 +14

2—Olly Murphy (0/1) – 0/1

2—Jeremy Scott (0/2) – 4/23 - loss of 5

2—Suzy Smith (1/6 +23) – 14/49 +89

+ 14 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hereford: This is a new meeting

Wolverhampton: £ 12.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 7th January

PLUMPTON – JANUARY 7

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £43.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Marley Firth) & 14 (Miss Tynte)

Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Rather Be) & 3 (Gregarious)

Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Harefield) & 5 (Flemenskill)

Leg 4 (2.05): 6 (Snippetydoodah), 8 (Bact To Black) & 9 (Heluvagood)

Leg 5 (2.35): 12 (Bindon Mill), 8 (Leo Luna) & 6 (Shanroe Santos)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (Finnegan’s Garden), 1 (Bramble Brook) & 2 (Ramore Will)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.30: This is simply a case of whether Dan Skelton’s MARLEY FIRTH is good enough to give so much weight to his rivals under poor conditions.  A facile winner on heavy ground at Chepstow, Dan’s Flemensfirth gelding looks a ready made winner despite the concession given his fair effort in a Grade 2 Sandown event the last day.  The current 4/5 call from Skybet looks sure to set the phones ringing in the relevant office anytime now.  MISS TYNTE will represent better value than Jaisalmer in terms of an alternative each way call of you want to take on the market leader.
Favourite factor: 18 of the last 20 winners have scored at 13/2 or less during which time, ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won.  14 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

1.05: Market leaders have a fine record in this event (see stats below) and with Nicky Henderson’s team in fine form, this looks to be something of a penalty kick for RATHER BE facing just three (ordinary) rivals. Nick’s seven-year-old Oscar gelding has threatened to be a decent type for some time now and this discipline could make a man of him.  The going is the only concern in all honesty though as a soft ground winner in the past, connections would not be happy to name conditions as a reason for being beaten in such a low grade event.  GREGARIOUS is 2/2 on soft ground whereby if the conditions are not reported to be too bad prior to flag fall, Lucy Wadham’s raider would be the forecast call.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have won to date, with ten market leaders finishing in the frame.

1.35: Five year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and if the first two favourites have obliged, there could be a ton of money running up on Alan King’s vintage representative HAREFIELD.  The treble on the first three favourites on the card equates to around the 5/2 mark at the time of writing, whilst sports mad enthusiasts will (likely as not) get greedy by including West Ham and Arsenal (televised games) in an accumulator which works out to around 10/1. Although Alan saddled 13 winners during the collective months of November/December, the relevant gold medallists scored at a disappointing 10% strike rate on behalf of the yard, whereby Alan will be hoping to pick up the thread now in the new year.  The trainer certainly seems to have found a golden opportunity for his recent Warwick winner, whilst Wayne Hutchinson’s mount will be less troubled by conditions that most I’ll wager.  FLEMENSKILL can put his Aintree debut effort to good use by following the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance in all probability.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 13 winners have scored at 9/2 or less, stats which include four winning favourites.  Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

 

2.05: Bookmakers will welcome this event to get some more horses into their ledgers (I’m showing my age again) compared to the opening three events on the card.  I’m offering each way/Placepot opportunities for two outsiders here, namely SNIPPETYDOODAH and HELUVAGOOD.  The first named course and distance winner was the subject of some overnight support, whilst Vic Darnall (fine record at this venue down the years) saddles Heluvagood whose 20/1 quote catches the eye in this grade/company.  More logical winners include CAFÉ AU LAIT and BACT TO BLACK I guess but something has to give on the Placepot card in order for a decent dividend to be declared and this race looks set up to give the majority of the layers a break.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one to good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

1/4—Yukon Deelta (good)

 

2.35: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, as have 22 of the 33 horses which have secured toteplacepot/each way positions in the ‘Sussex National’ to date.  Nine-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of BINDON MILL, LEO LUNA and SHANROE SANTOS. The reserve nomination is awarded to SHOTGUN PADDY.
Favourite factor: Six of the 12 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date though we still await our first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Sussex National’:

1/4—Coolking (heavy)

3/12—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – soft)

3.10:  As a maiden following 15 assignments to date, bookmakers will happily accommodate BRAMBLE BROOK though from a Placepot perspective, the chance for Colin Tizzard’s raider to reach the frame is there for all to see.  FINNEGAN’S GARDEN has a soft ground course victory to his name and with Zoe Davidson boasting the best seasonal (strike rate) stats on offer at Plumpton this term, Zoe’s nine-year-old has to be included in the mix.  RAMORE WILL completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualiry for each way/Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Ramore Will (good)

1/1—Spock (good)

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6/36 – loss of 6 points) – 162/891 – loss of 11

5—Daniel Steele (0/2) – 6/48 +1

3—Nick Gifford (0/9) – 28/196 loss of 24

3—Chris Gordon (3/17 – slight loss) – 35/258 +20

3—Dan Skelton (5/14 – loss of 2) – 7/32 – loss of 14

3—Lucy Wadham (0/1) – 9/63 – loss of 15

2—Vic Dartnall ((First runners here this season) – 6/19 +9

2—Zoe Davison (4/7 +39) – 17/213 – loss of 33

2—Warren Greatrex (1/4 +9) – 15/67 +5

2—Linda Jewell (1/10 –loss of 1) – 23/364 – loss of 128

2—Neil King (1/10 – loss of 3) – 23/154 +6

2—Emma Lavelle (First runners here this season) – 25/121 +18

2—Nick Mitchell (0/1) – 2/29 – loss of 15

2—Neil Mulholland (4/16 – loss of 5) – 17/114 – loss of 23

2—Richard Rowe (0/5) – 43/444 – loss of 201

2—Colin Tizzard (2/11 – loss of 2) – 34/216 – loss of 2

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 14 (Lisp)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Fixe Le Cap) & 3 (Not Another Muddle)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Sam Brown), 1 (Delire D’Estruval) & 3 (New To This Town)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (City Supreme), 4 (Leith Hill Lad) & 5 (Talk Of The South)

Leg 5 (2.25): 7 (Café Au Lait) & 2 (Le Capriceux)

Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Stoical Patient), 6 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 4 (Easter In Paris)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Gary Moore has secured three of the four renewals to date, having saddled the silver medallist in the race that eluded the stable.  Penalised runners have won three of the four contests thus far whereby Gary Moore’s KNOCKNANUSS has been well placed by the trainer who seemingly only has LISP to worry about.  Layers are offering ‘14/1 bar the two’ at the time of writing and from a Placepot perspective, there seems to be little reason why I should waste any more time on the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though the one favourite of the trio that did not actually win its respected event was sent off as a beaten 1/4 chance twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

12.50: Nicky Henderson saddled the beaten 1/4 favourite in the opening event last year whereby punters might take that stat as a sobering thought before wading into Nicky’s only runner on the card today, namely FIXE LE CAP.  That said, connections will probably take the view that any problem here is likely to be in front of the Kapgarde gelding (relating to the fences) rather than a realistic threat from his three rivals, albeit NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE is certainly a horse with ability.  With only five races under his belt as a six-year-old, Gary Moore’s soft ground Fontwell winner has not been the easiest horse to handle, though I can’t see either of the other pair really troubling the afore mentioned contenders, though SILVERHOW will surely claim the bronze medal if the race pans out as suggested.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

 

1.20: Five-year-olds have won half (6/12) of the recent contests, with SAM BROWN looking to extend the good run of vintage representatives in this novice hurdle event.  Anthony Honeyball has his runners in fine fettle just now, producing stats of 12/52 since the end of October, figures which have realised five points of level stake profit.  Unfortunately for connections, Ben Pauling (DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL) and Colin Tizzard (NEW TO THIS TOWN) are also in fine form and this trio look set to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a seven timer, whilst nine of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

1.50: Horses carrying 11-6 or more come into the gig having won the last four renewals and six of the last eight contests.  CIIY SUPREME and LEITH HILL LAD (listed in order of preference) represent some each way value from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, whilst TALK OF THE SOUTH is added into the Placepot equation.  The lads/lasses in the trade press office were fanciful in suggesting that BEARS RAILS would start at 3/1 but then again, the current 15/8 quote does not offer any value and somewhere down the line, I have to speculate that there is a race on the card that could produce the spark to ignite the Placepot flame.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, nine of the ten winners scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst the other gold medallist could hardly be classed as a no-hoper having previaled at 12/1.  That said, only two of the last six market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—City Supreme (heavy)

1/5—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/11—Frank N Fair (good & good to soft)

 

2.25: Results were against the punters until the last three favourites obliged and potential investors must have wished that the 9/4 suggestion in the trade press about CAFE AU LAIT was a realistic quote.  The best price on offer at the time of writing is 5/6 and it’s doubtful if the market leader is going into odds against territory given the lack of strength relating to his rivals.  Only in June and September this year has Dan Shelton failed to notch double figure win totals and even then, the trainer boasted a 17% strike rate which many handlers would be happy to achieve on a long term basis.  The writing was on the wall in the 2013/14 season when Dan secured 73 winners which nearly trebled the tally from the previous term.  Now needing just one gold medallist to match last year’s total of 118, I’m not sure just how much people really appreciate this meteoric rise in such a short career.   The two youngest (six-year-old) rivals might chase CAFÉ AU LAIT home on this occasion, namely LE CAPRICEUX and BLUE APRIL.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 17/2.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Thundering Home (good to soft)

2/12—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Two defectors have potentially put this event into ‘win only’ territory which could make all the difference to the eventual Placepot dividend.  Yes, STOICAL PATIENT should land the hat trick in this grade/company but because of the uncertainty relating to the number of participants, I’m including FINNEGAN’S GARDEN and EASTER IN PARIS in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  That said, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1; hence my worry relating to a potential ‘win only’ event unfolding.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Stoical Patient (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled (in brackets) on the corresponding card during the last five years:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6)

5—Anthony Honeyball (1)

4—Paul Henderson (1)

3—Diana Grissell

3—Colin Tizzard (1)

2—Zoe Davidson (1)

2—Nick Gifford (1)

2—Linda Jewell (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—Seamus Mullins

2—Brendan Powell (1)

2—Dan Skelton

2—Sam Thomas

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £57.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £370.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 8 (Piton Pete) & 9 (Puppet Warrior)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Optimus Prime), 4 (Shamma Grise) & 3 (San Pedro De Senam)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Tambura), 7 (Act Now) & 5 (Ding Ding)

Leg 4 (2.10): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 6 (Solomon Grey)

Leg 5 (2.40): 7 (Itoldyou), 1 (Flight Commander) & 5 (Like Sully)

Leg 6 (3.10): 3 (Kristal Hart) & 7 (Our Merlin)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Although Oliver Sherwood’s 0/2 record at Plumpton this season is hardly inspiring, there are ‘only’ nine tracks up and down the country where the trainer has saddled more winners (30 in total), stats which have been gained via a 19% strike rate.  Oliver appears to have found a decent opportunity for PITON PETE to score at the sixth time of asking, having secured two medals of both the silver and bronze variety to date.  That said, I would not go wading into the 10/11 on offer at the time of writing but his Placepot credentials are there for all to see.  Nick Gifford saddled a winner last week and his PUPPET WARRIOR will probably offer better value for money than the Tizzard representative Battle Of Ideas, particularly when considering your Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Plumpton on Monday.

 

1.10: I find trouble in dismissing a Harry Fry 14/1 raider in a four runner race usually, but Behind Time looks to be potentially outclassed here whilst reporting that since the start of November, only one of the 29 races in which just four runners contested an event, just one (4/1) winner has emerged.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although OPTIMUS PRIME is not in the same league (respectfully) as last year’s winner Top Notch, Dan Skelton’s raider looks good enough to build on his successful Worcester debut in this green and pleasant land in this grade/company, despite giving upwards of five pounds to his rivals.  That said, SHAMMA GRISE and SAN PEDRO DE SENAM cannot be eliminated in this ‘win only’ contest given the potential of the Placepot dividend should either of them score.
Favourite factor: The distinctly useful Top Notch becamethe third successive winning odds on favourite in this event twelve months ago.

 

1.40: All five winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory which will aid and abet the chances of fellow course winners ACT NOW and DING DING (winner on this card last year) though from my viewpoint, TAMBURA boasts a half decent chance of gaining her third successive success in the race, especially as she is three pounds lower than when defending her crown successfully twelve months ago under the same projected (good to soft) conditions.  The ground will also suit the other course winners and this trio are speculative selections against more fancied rivals who will have to beat the weight trend if they are to score.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful (11/4**, 9/4 & 15/8) favourites via five renewals.

Record of the course winners in the field:

3/6—Tambura (2 x soft & good to soft)

4/11—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Act Now (soft & heavy)

 

2.10: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals but I am inclined to dismiss the vintage trend (shock horror) on this occasion, with KNOCKNANUSS and SOLOMAN GREY having been declared.  Gary Moore’s local first named raider obviously does not take a great deal of racing but when he is offered the green light, the Beneficial gelding rarely lets his supporters down, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  In terms of Placepot consistency, the same can be said about Dan Skelton’s representative SOLOMON GREY.
Favourite factor: All six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4, 4/6, 4/6 & 4/7) winners.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

2.40: ITOLD YOU won this event back in 2013 and the 15/2 quote by Betfair and Paddy Power could prove popular this morning I’ll wager.  LIKE SULLY has won all three of his 22 assignments over obstacles here at Plumpton and Richard Rowe’s nine year-old is another outsider to consider, albeit Oliver Sherwood’s FLIGHT COMMANDER is probably a more logical call in terms of winning the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via eight renewals thus far, statistics which include five (5/4--7/4—13/8—2/1—7/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/8—Flashman (good to firm & good to soft)

3/10—Like Sully (good – soft – heavy)

Your first 30 days for just £1

2/11—Itoldyou (good & good to soft)

2/15—Venetian Lad (2 x good)

1/10—Frank N Fair (good)

 

3.10: I am reverting to a tried and trusted formula in the Placepot finale, hoping that some of my earlier outsiders on the card have reached the frame.  I have made the point before that if in doubt, it’s as well to offer two shorter priced horses in the last leg whereby we can ‘lay off’ from a place perspective at very short odds on the exchanges, should a potentially decent dividend be in the offing.  The only problem on this occasion is that if the field is reduced down to less than eight runners, place betting on the exchanges are different to the ruling on the Placepot so keep your eyes peeled for non runners before considering ‘laying off’, if you have reached this point ‘intact’ from a Placepot viewpoint. KRISTAL HART and OUR MERLIN are my pair against the field in this ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has claimed a Placepot position to date without winning its respective event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (4/22 +11)

4—Oliver Sherwood (0/2)

3—Nick Gifford (0/4)

3—Linda Jewell (1/5 +4)

3—Dan Skelton (3/9 – loss of 1 point)

2—Brian Barr (0/1)

2—Paul Henderson (First runners at the track this season)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3)

2—Chris Gordon (3/14 +2)

2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)

2—Neil Mullholland (4/12 – loss of 1 point)

2—David Pipe (1/1 +5)

2—Richard Rowe (0/2)

2—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

Southwell (A/W): Another new meeting

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday's...

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey's yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today's jockey Robert Dunne.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he's one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today's race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows...

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday's...

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey's yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today's jockey Robert Dunne.

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he's one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today's race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows...

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 20th November

PLUMPTON – NOVEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.10): 1 (Landin) & 7 (Tikkenbar)

Leg 2 (1.40): 1 (Benatar) & 2 (Keeper Hill)

Leg 3 (2.10): 2 (Dalamar) & 1 (Kastani Beach)

Leg 4 (2.40): 1 (Chef D’Equipe), 7 (Astrum) & 6 (Sandhurst Lad)

Leg 5 (3.10): 8 (Little Windmill), 1 (Master Burbidge) & 7 (Saint Contest)

Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Roparta Avenue), 1 (Mab Dab) & 5 (Landscape)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.10: The front pair in the market have plenty going for them in this grade/company and with support for the other runners only conspicuous by its absence in the dead of night, LANDIN gets the marginal call over TIKKANBAR for openers. Seamus Mullins boasts a 25% strike rate at the track this season (minimum ratio to light my blue touch paper) and being race fit with a claimer aboard to negate the penalty for a recent Worcester success, LANDIN could register his second win from seven starts in this green and (mostly) pleasant land.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

1.40: I promised readers that I would research some figures in terms of the ‘outsider of three’ theory over the weekend and with just a trio of entries here, what better time to report back to you with my findings.  Eight relevant races have produced one 4/1 winner during the month of November to date, resulting in a level stake loss of three points.  Going back to last year during the same period (up to and including the Sunday of the Cheltenham meeting), 2.5 points would have been gained via 12 such contests.  I omitted one race as there were joint second/third favourites returned, one of which won. I will report back with more extensive stats in the not too distant future.  That said, there will not be too many takers relating to the relevant beast here (Britanio Bello) I’ll wager, with BENATAR and KEEPER HILL having been declared, the pair being listed in order of preference. Ensure that you take account of the favourite facts below!

Favourite factor: Try and remind yourself that you have not enjoyed an alcoholic beverage to wash breakfast down this morning when reading that the last ten renewals of this novice chase event have been won by favourites!

 

2.10: There is a fair few quid in the positive queue waiting to be accommodated for dual course winner KASTANI BEACH, though it might take a career best to lower the colours of Neil Muholland’s recent Chepstow winner DALAMAR who was scoring under the same type of (good to soft) conditions which are projected this afternoon. Three of the other four runners ‘boast’ aggregate stats of 1/29, whilst the other (My Lord) is woefully out of form.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in the race following three renewals thus far, though two of the trio of market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

2/11—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

 

2.40: Six-year-olds have won all three contests thus far, yet only Warren Grertrex among the training ranks has smelt the coffee on this occasion by declaring SANDHURST LAD.  Warren’s Presenting gelding remains a maiden following five assignments thus far, though this is an easier race than when contesting a Sandown event last time out. Reverting back to timber-topping now, SANDHURST LAD is included in my Placepot mix alongside more logical winners, namely CHEF D’EQUIPE and ASTRUM whose trainer Phil Middleton can do very little wrong at present.  ASTRUM has his (half decent) ground whereby a sixth career win is not out of the question here by any means.  11/1 is still available if you believe in positive ratios though the one worry in my mind is this step up in trip.  Failing that, 11/1 makes ASTRUM an each way play from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date by winner their respective events at 11/10 & 11/8.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/7—Mercers Court (good)

1/2—Guards Chapel (good)

2/12—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

 

3.10: Seven-year-olds come into the race on a four timer, though that information should have been written in the singular sense as only LITTLE WINDMILL represents the vintage on this occasion.  Neil King’s raider boasts a 40% record at this venue and with the ground in his favour, LITTLE WINDMILL can be expected to secure a Placepot position at the very least. The main dangers appear to be MASTER BURBIDGE (also at home under these conditions) and SAINT CONTEST.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the money (exact science), stats which include three (13/8. 7/4 & 5/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

3/9—Mr Muddle (good – good to firm – soft)

1/2—Howlongisafoot (good)

2/5—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

3.40: LANDSCAPE is the tentative each way call if that’s the way you want to play the race, though course winners ROPARTA AVENUE and MAB DAB should take plenty of kicking out of the (short field) frame.  I’m only adding LANDSCAPE into the equation because of the limited number of Placepot positions available in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the second of the new races on the programme.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mab Dab (good to firm)

4/9—Hold The bucks (4 x soft)

1/7—Roparta Avenue (good)

3/19—Flugzeug (good – good to firm – good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Gary Moore (3/18 – loss of 9 points)

3—Chris Gordon (3/11 +5)

3—Neil Mulholland (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

3—Seamus Mullins (2/8 +7)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/2)

2—Warren Greatrex (No previous runners this season)

2—Linda Jewell (1/3 +6)

2—Neil King (1/7 – level profit/loss this season)

2—Bernard Llewellyn (No previous runners)

2—Suzy Smith (0/2)

2—Daniel Steele (0/1)

+ 13 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

40 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Leicester: Meeting abandoned

Wolverhampton: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.40 Wetherby : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Held up in touch in 4th place, led 3 out, clear before last, soon ridden, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by a length.

Next up is Monday's...

2.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, handicap hurdle over 2m 4.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,120 to the winner.

This horse interests me from several angles, so I'll try to keep each strand of interest pretty brief...

Trainer Philip Hobbs is 10 from 24 in the last 2 weeks, so we know the yard is in decent nick.

This often tends to be the case, as in November & December of 2012-17, his hurdlers are 86/416 (20.7% SR) for 354.5pts (+85.2% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 18 of 98 (18.4%) for 81.1 pts (+82.8%) in November.

Your first 30 days for just £1

He doesn't send many here to Plumpton, but since the start of last year he's 4 from 11 at this venue with his hurdlers winning 4 of 9 and he sends just one here today, who also happens to be his only runner anywhere.

On days since the start of 2012, when Mr Hobbs is represented by a single NH runner, he has 70 winners from 307 (22.8% SR) for 65.3pts (+21.3% ROI).

This one is likely to go off as favourites and since 2103 the yard is 48/149 (32.2% SR) for 30.5pts (+20.5% ROI) with handicap hurdle favourites.

And away from just the Hobbs yard, I'll close with a more general stat : NH handicap hurdles / 2012-17 / 5 to 7 yr olds / carrying 11-13 to 12-02 = 60/187 (32.1% SR) for 61.4pts (+32.9% ROI) with favourites winning 57/170 (33.5%) for 56.5pts (+33.3%)

...but first ... a 1pt win bet on Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.40 Wetherby : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Held up in touch in 4th place, led 3 out, clear before last, soon ridden, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by a length.

Next up is Monday's...

2.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, handicap hurdle over 2m 4.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,120 to the winner.

This horse interests me from several angles, so I'll try to keep each strand of interest pretty brief...

Trainer Philip Hobbs is 10 from 24 in the last 2 weeks, so we know the yard is in decent nick.

This often tends to be the case, as in November & December of 2012-17, his hurdlers are 86/416 (20.7% SR) for 354.5pts (+85.2% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 18 of 98 (18.4%) for 81.1 pts (+82.8%) in November.

He doesn't send many here to Plumpton, but since the start of last year he's 4 from 11 at this venue with his hurdlers winning 4 of 9 and he sends just one here today, who also happens to be his only runner anywhere.

On days since the start of 2012, when Mr Hobbs is represented by a single NH runner, he has 70 winners from 307 (22.8% SR) for 65.3pts (+21.3% ROI).

This one is likely to go off as favourites and since 2103 the yard is 48/149 (32.2% SR) for 30.5pts (+20.5% ROI) with handicap hurdle favourites.

And away from just the Hobbs yard, I'll close with a more general stat : NH handicap hurdles / 2012-17 / 5 to 7 yr olds / carrying 11-13 to 12-02 = 60/187 (32.1% SR) for 61.4pts (+32.9% ROI) with favourites winning 57/170 (33.5%) for 56.5pts (+33.3%)

...but first ... a 1pt win bet on Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 6th November

PLUMPTON – NOVEMBER 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (King Vince) & 4 (Parthenius)

Leg 2 (2.10): 7 (Roksana) & 4 (Naranja)

Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Cucklington), 2 (Velvet Cognac) & 5 (Dontminddboys)

Leg 4 (3.10): 5 (Searching), 2 (Fixed Rate) & 3 (Vive Le Roi)

Leg 5 (3.40): 6 (Firmount Glen), 3 (Red Square Revival) & 1 (Ben Arthur)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Quiz Master) & 8 (Posh Totty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: Four-year-olds have won eight renewals during the last decade whereby KING VINCE and PARTHENIUS are the first two names on the team sheet.  There is obvious respect for Alan King’s WILLIAM HUNTER though as a self-confessed ‘anorak’, I feel compelled to stick to the four-year-old raiders LONG VINCE and PARTHENIUS for openers.

Favourite factor: Favourites have finished in the frame in six of the last seven contests, statistics which include five winners.

 

2.10: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4-3 via eight renewals to date and ROKSANA and NARANJA should extend the lead between them in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Am I Appropriate should secure a place again despite finishing only second in a poor event at Southwell at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 10/3, stats which include three winners.  Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five events which brings lone vintage representative CUCKLINGTON straight into the mix.  Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding should become competitive in this low grade affair, hopefully scoring at the main expense of VELEVET COGNAC and DONTMINDDBOYS.  Plantagenet was ‘drifting like the proverbial barge’ on the exchanges at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include four winners.  Level stake punters (backing favourites to £100 units) would sit + £157.50 to date.

 

3.10: Gary Moore has saddled five winners at this corresponding meeting in as many years (next best trainers have secured just two races) and having greeted the inaugural winner twelve months ago, Gary’s SEARCHING is expected to maintain the trainer’s hold on the race despite his long absence from the track.  Others to consider include FIXED RATE and VIVE LE ROI.  Ding Ding would be an interesting 20/1 chance but for completely losing form of late.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Gary Moore trained) 3/1 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

3/10—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)

 

3.40: It is probably coincidental that FIRMOUNT GLEN is attempting to become the fourth consecutive eleven-year-old winner of this event though either way, Dan Skelton’s raider is very much the horse for money in the dead of night.  Ten different trainers (and jockeys) have won this race during the study period which does not help to assess the contest, though I’m adding RED SQUARE REVIVAL and BEN ARTHUR into the equation on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this race during the last decade, eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 9/2.  Five of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/9—Frank N Fair (good)

 

4.10: QUIZ MASTER is the last of Colin Tizzard’s sextet on the card, though one of his likelier winners in my book, despite the fact that there is tons of money for POSH TOTTY at 6.30 this morning as I begin to wind up this analysis.  Nothing else is attracting the eye this morning in the final leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have finished in the money via just two renewals to date.  This includes one winner who was returned as one of the five 9/2 co favourites in 2015!

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Mab Dab (good to firm)

2/7—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Colin Tizard (No previous runners at Plumpton this season)

4—David Bridgwater (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

3—Dan Skelton (1/4 – loss of 4 points)

3—Jamie Snowden (0/2)

2—Zoe Davidson (0/2)

2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners)

2—Chris Gordon (3/9 +7)

2—Anthony Honeyball (No previous runners)

2—Charlie Mann (1/1 +1)

2—Gary Moore (3/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—Seamus Mullins (2/6 +9)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell (NH): £22.20 – 7 races – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £3.70 – 3 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced (Racing abandoned after three races due to several injured jockeys)

 

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.00 Newmarket: Yellowhammer @ 3/1 BOG (2.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 2/1 Keen to post, held up in touch in centre, good headway chasing leaders 2f out, ridden over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish

Monday's selection goes in the...

4.10 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG

A Class 5 conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle over 2m4.5f on good to soft ground...

...in which I'm hoping the odds on jolly finds a 1st start under Rules in almost 6 years a little too competitive. I can see why she's so short, based on P2P form and where's she's based, but there's more value (on paper at least) in our 6 yr old gelding who heads the weights and was a winner here three starts ago.

He's won one and placed once in two handicap hurdles races, is 1/1 at the track and also at Class 5, so he should know what lies ahead, as should his trainer, Linda Jewell.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Linda's quite possibly only a household name in her own house, but has been very successful in the past few years (especially here at Plumpton) with horses with a little juice in the price. More specifically...Linda Jewell + NH handicappers at 7/2 to 14/1 + November to April + 2010 to now = 15/91 (16.5% SR) for 71.8pts (+78.9% ROI), from which...

  • on Good to Soft or worse : 11/72 (15.3%) for 53.8pts (+74.8%)
  • males are 10/63 (15.9%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • at class 5 : 9/53 (17%) for 40.3pts (+76%)
  • here at Plumpton : 11/49 (22.5%) for 80.1pts (+163.5%)
  • hurdlers are 6/35 (17.1%) for 40.2pts (+114.9%)
  • in 2017 : 3/13 (23.1%) for 35.6pts (+273.6%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 30.9pts (+343.4%)

Jack Sherwood gets the ride today around a track where he too has acquitted himself pretty well in the past winning 5 of 29 (17.2% SR) rides since 2013 rewarding followers with profits of 11.62pts at a return of just over 40p in the pound, including...

  • in handicap hurdles : 3/19 (15.8%) for 4.61pts (+24.2%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 10/1 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 26.62pts (+190.1%)
  • and in handicap hurdles at odds of 7/2 to 10/1 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.61pts (+114.6%)

I also mentioned that in carrying 12 stone before and after any claims were counted, Mab Dab was top weight today and I accept that this is a negative for some punters, so some of you may be surprised to learn that...2009 to now / UK handicap hurdlers / aged 5 to 9 / carrying 12-0 to 12-5 / priced at 10-1 and shorter = 82/225 (36.4% ROI) for 95.4pts (+42.4% ROI) profit and those 225 runners include...

  • top weight before claims included : 79/208 (38%) for 92.4pts (+44.4%)
  • males at 71/199 (35.7%) for 89.6pts (+45%)
  • top weight after claims : 78/197 (39.6%) for 106.1pts (+53.8%)
  • carrying 12-0 or 12-1 : 47/135 (34.8%) for 72.2pts (+53.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/99 (33.3%) for 18.5pts (+18.7%)
  • and here at Plumpton : 4/6 (66.6%) for 9.13pts (+152.2%)

...all of which backs up... a 1pt win bet on Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG, which was widely available at 5.40 pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.00 Newmarket: Yellowhammer @ 3/1 BOG (2.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 2/1 Keen to post, held up in touch in centre, good headway chasing leaders 2f out, ridden over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish

Monday's selection goes in the...

4.10 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG

A Class 5 conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle over 2m4.5f on good to soft ground...

...in which I'm hoping the odds on jolly finds a 1st start under Rules in almost 6 years a little too competitive. I can see why she's so short, based on P2P form and where's she's based, but there's more value (on paper at least) in our 6 yr old gelding who heads the weights and was a winner here three starts ago.

He's won one and placed once in two handicap hurdles races, is 1/1 at the track and also at Class 5, so he should know what lies ahead, as should his trainer, Linda Jewell.

Linda's quite possibly only a household name in her own house, but has been very successful in the past few years (especially here at Plumpton) with horses with a little juice in the price. More specifically...Linda Jewell + NH handicappers at 7/2 to 14/1 + November to April + 2010 to now = 15/91 (16.5% SR) for 71.8pts (+78.9% ROI), from which...

  • on Good to Soft or worse : 11/72 (15.3%) for 53.8pts (+74.8%)
  • males are 10/63 (15.9%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • at class 5 : 9/53 (17%) for 40.3pts (+76%)
  • here at Plumpton : 11/49 (22.5%) for 80.1pts (+163.5%)
  • hurdlers are 6/35 (17.1%) for 40.2pts (+114.9%)
  • in 2017 : 3/13 (23.1%) for 35.6pts (+273.6%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 30.9pts (+343.4%)

Jack Sherwood gets the ride today around a track where he too has acquitted himself pretty well in the past winning 5 of 29 (17.2% SR) rides since 2013 rewarding followers with profits of 11.62pts at a return of just over 40p in the pound, including...

  • in handicap hurdles : 3/19 (15.8%) for 4.61pts (+24.2%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 10/1 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 26.62pts (+190.1%)
  • and in handicap hurdles at odds of 7/2 to 10/1 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.61pts (+114.6%)

I also mentioned that in carrying 12 stone before and after any claims were counted, Mab Dab was top weight today and I accept that this is a negative for some punters, so some of you may be surprised to learn that...2009 to now / UK handicap hurdlers / aged 5 to 9 / carrying 12-0 to 12-5 / priced at 10-1 and shorter = 82/225 (36.4% ROI) for 95.4pts (+42.4% ROI) profit and those 225 runners include...

  • top weight before claims included : 79/208 (38%) for 92.4pts (+44.4%)
  • males at 71/199 (35.7%) for 89.6pts (+45%)
  • top weight after claims : 78/197 (39.6%) for 106.1pts (+53.8%)
  • carrying 12-0 or 12-1 : 47/135 (34.8%) for 72.2pts (+53.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/99 (33.3%) for 18.5pts (+18.7%)
  • and here at Plumpton : 4/6 (66.6%) for 9.13pts (+152.2%)

...all of which backs up... a 1pt win bet on Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG, which was widely available at 5.40 pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.20 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Milan Reef), 14 (Bee Machine), 12 (Ventura Quest) & 10 (Barney George)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Sioux Rising), 1 (Dawn Breaking) & 2 (Fortunate Vision)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Shaheen), 9 (Purple Rock) & 13 (Misscarlet)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Old Persian), 4 (Learn By Heart) & 10 (Unwritten)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Know Your Limit) & 9 (Tranquil Star)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Minotaur) & 5 (Dominating)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (14 have been burdened with a maximum of 9-0), and the pick of the runners emerging from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap include MILAN REEF (drawn 4/14), BEE MACHINE (9) and VENTURA QUEST (3). Horses drawn in trap 1 have finished in the frame four times during the last six years as you can see below, as well as claiming toteplacepot positions in seven of the last thirteen contests.  BARNEY GEORGE (1) is also nominated accordingly, despite the fact that Ian Jardine’s raider is quoted as a 20/1 chance in the trade press this morning.  Indeed, 33/1 is available this morning in a few places which defies belief, given that trainer Iain Jardine has saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect as well as ‘Barney’ occupying a favourable stall position.  ‘Barney’ is Iain’s only runner today.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – most recent result listed first):

6-1-11 (10 ran-soft)

9-11-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-4 (13 ran-soft)

7-5-4 (14 ran-heavy)

8-1-2 (8 ran-heavy)

6-1-2 (14 ran-good)

12-5-3-10 (17 ran-good)

12-9-17 (14 ran-good)

8-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-6-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

17-16-5-14 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-5-2-1 (16 ran-good)

5-11-1-12 (16 ran-good to soft)

4-13-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

16-18-2-19 (19 ran-good)

10-9-13-2 (19 ran-good to firm)

4-7-1-13 (20 ran-soft)

4-11-20-9 (18 ran-soft)

16-2-18-1 (20 ran-heavy)

9-20-4-11 (19 ran-good)

18-16-4-19 (20 ran-soft)

20-16-17-7 (19 ran-good to soft)

 

2.40: You will have to excuse my belligerent mood this morning (not feeling 100%) but I have to take issue with the powers that be for calling this a ‘new race’ (yet again) given that it is only the change of ‘novice prefix’ that is different, with the contest remaining as a Class 5 event over six furlongs.  I have left my figures in place whereby it is your decision whether you take notice of the stats or ‘adopt’ the other option.  Upwards and onward by informing that Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of this juvenile event when represented and the trainer has offered the green light to SIOUX RISING on this occasion.  I take little (or no) comfort from the fact that the form was registered at Redcar which offers dubious consistency in general terms from my perspective.  Trainer David Brown has had a poor season by his standards, registering a strike rate of just 7% this term, though his recent Catterick winner FORTUNATE VISION will hopefully lift the spirit of the yard by figuring prominently in this grade/company.  I’m not sure where else you could read the fact that an underrated trainer here boasts stats of 6/11 at Pontefract this season, namely Richard Whitaker (DAWN BREAKING), a ratio which has produced level stake profits of 23 points.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 17 of the 23 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dawn Breaking (heavy)

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-2-8 (9 ran-soft)

9-6-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-6-11 (12 ran-soft)

4-5-3 (10 ran-heavy)

2-12-5 (12 ran-heavy)

9-7-11 (14 ran-good)

9-3-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-16-1 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-8-12 (13 ran-good)

5-7-4 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-6-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-10-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

2-3-4 (12 ran-good)

8-1-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-17 (17 ran-soft)

15-10-17 (18 ran-soft)

 

3.20: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared eight of the last nine renewals of this contest, with soft ground course winner ROYAL SHAHEEN potentially representing the four-year-old vintage to good effect.  7/1 is still available with Bet365 as I write which looks a ‘bet to nothing’ from an each way perspective from my viewpoint.  Others to consider include PURPLE ROCK and three-year-old MISSCARLET who has plenty of scope for improvement on just her third assignment.

Favourite factor: Four clear favourites have won during the last eight years (seven and half points of level stake profit) during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.  Indeed, seven of those gold medallists scored at 5/1 or less, though just one of the other five market leaders during the period additionally claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/7—Save The Bees (good to firm)

1/2—Royal Shaheen (soft)

1/1—Misscarlet (soft)

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby swerved the entire weekend which only goes to prove that not all heads are turned because of substantial prize money.  Cynical readers might suggest that Charlie’s team might have been out of form but that simply is not the case, as the popular trainer has saddled five of his last eleven runners to winning effect, stats which have produced sixteen points of level stake profit.  Charlie saddled the winner of this event last year for good measure, whereby OLD PERSIAN is very much the first name on the team sheet.  Don’t expect 7/4 to be on offer however, as indicated in the trade press betting forecast.  LEARN BY HEART looks set to offer another solid performance on ground which suits, whilst UNWRITTEN could become a market mover if plenty of rain evolves during the morning.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have won in the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 23 favourites secured toteplacepot dividends during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Unwritten (heavy)

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have secured eleven of the twelve Placepot positions to date, albeit from around 75% of the runners which have contested just four renewals to date.  Vintage representatives are 1/3 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with KNOW YOUR LIMIT and TRANQUIL STAR fully expected to secure the fourth three-year-old victory in the race between them.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two successful (15/8 & 7/4) market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.50: Pontefract's obsession with hold staying races at every meeting drags on though to be entirely fair, it's just about the only ‘complaint’ I have about the venue. These events are more like graded greyhound races as old rivals shake hooves before going in the traps to see whose day it is going to be from meeting to meeting.  That said, I know some punters will hold their own (more positive) views but I can never get away from the fact that horses which lack pace to contest shorter events defies the intention of the sport.  Yes, thousands of horses contest races over two miles and more in the NH sector, though the discipline of jumping timber makes that a spectacle worth viewing each and every time.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MINOTAUR and DOMINATING should land the dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/6 favourites finished second when securing a Placepot position..

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/20—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)

2/7—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

7 runners—Tim Easterby (8/43 +6)

5—Richard Fahey (9/81 – loss of 29 points)

4—Bryan Smart (1/8 +3)

4—Ed Walker (0/1)

3—Karl Burke (2/24 – loss of 17 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/48 – loss of 24 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/15)

2—Marco Botti (0/1)

2—Declan Carroll (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

2—Mick Channon (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Michael Dods (1/30 – loss of 13 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/23 +2)

2—Les Eyre (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/14)

2—William Haggas (0/5)

2—Micky Hammond (4/28 +10)

2—Sally Haynes (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Paul Midgley (1/23 – loss of 15 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/27 +2)

2—Jimmy Quinn (level return this season)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/11 +23)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Windsor: £762.80 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Plumpton: £68.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.25 Ascot : Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Held up in mid-division, pushed along chasing leaders and switched left over 3f out, ridden and hung right 2f out, stayed on in 3rd towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 5, 3yo+ novices handicap hurdle contest over 2m on good to soft ground...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner by 4.5 lengths when last seen 29 days ago.

Your first 30 days for just £1

His trainer Chris Gordon's record here at Plumpton since the start of 2013 stands at 25/149 (16.8% SR) for 99.6pts (+66.8% ROI) and those 149 runners include...

  • at Class 4/5 : 23/127 (18.1%) for 91.2pts (+71.8%)
  • males are 22/123 (17.9%) for 114.3pts (+92.9%)
  • handicappers are 22/114 (19.3%) for 87.3pts (+76.5%)
  • hurdlers are 15/107 (14%) for 63.5pts (+59.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds are 18/99 (18.2%) for 115.7pts (+116.9%)
  • those ridden by Tom Cannon : 18/95 (19%) for 98.2pts (+103.4%)
  • at 2m4f and shorter : 19/82 (23.2%) for 133.4pts (+162.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 12/80 (15%) for 43.2pts (+54%)
  • novices are 8/33 (24.2%) for 75.4pts (+228.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/15 940%) for 4pts (+26.5%)

PLUS...Chris Gordon + handicap hurdles + LTO winners 1-30 days ago + 2009-17 = 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 16.8pts (+30.5% ROI), including...

  • 6 to 30 days since last run : 13/52 (25%) for 19.8pts (+38.1%)
  • males are 12/46 (26.1%) for 23.1pts (+50.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 13/41 (31.7%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 6/31 (19.4%) for 1.5pts (+4.8%)
  • 7 to 9 yr olds are 9/24 (37.5%) for 29.3pts (+122%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%)
  • on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 13.81pts (+138.1%)
  • here at Plumpton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.2pts (+88.2%)
  • and running at the same C&D as LTO : 3/6 (50%)

AND...more generally : 2012-17 / hcp hurdles / males who won LTO by 4 lengths or more 1-45 days earlier = 391/1479 (26.4% SR) for 259.5pts (+17.6% ROI) from which those running over the same C&D as that LTO win are 47/145 (32.4%) for 74.4pts (+51.3%).

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power, SkyBet & ToteSport at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!