Racing Insights, Monday 04/12/23
The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...
- 1.45 Plumpton
- 7.00 Wolverhampton
- 8.00 Wolverhampton
...none of which I fancy, sadly, so I'm going to look at the highest rated and most valuable race of the day, the 2.45 Plumpton, a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f (but nearer to 2m5½f after a 174yds rail adjustment) on good to soft ground...
The Height of Fame and A Tickatickatiming both won last time out and the latter has won to of her last four. All the Glory was a runner-up most recently and has won two from six with three runner-up finishes, so she's pretty consistent. Ilovethenightlife was pulled up on her last run but has won two from four. Iorens and Pretending are both winless over hurdles after four and six efforts respectively whilst Belles Benefit has won just once in nineteen attempts.
Belles Benefit's cause probably won't be helped by stepping up two classes either, as The Height of Fame, Pretending, All The Glory & A Tickatickatiming all step up one level with the last-named duo making their handicap debuts here. Top weight Ilovethenightlife actually drops down a class, leaving Iorens as the only one to have raced at this grade last time out, but that was some 277 days and she might well now need the run, especially as the others have all raced in the last seven weeks (five of them in the last two to four weeks).
A Tickatickatiming won here LTO over 2m four weeks ago and she's 2 from 3 here and is the only previous course winner in the field, whilst Ilovethenightlife's 2m5f win at Newbury and The Height of Fame's multiple 2m5½f successes are the only ones we've seen at this kind of trip. Instant Expert has these and other relevant stats, of course...
...where the standout stat is The Height of Fame's suitability for the trip. As mentioned, A Tickatickatiming goes weel here and has also won her sole effort on good to soft ground, unlike All The Glory who is only 1 from 8. Belles Benefit's win record at 2m4f to 2m6f is very poor and the following place stats aren't that encouraging for her either...
They do, however, present a very case for All The Glory making the frame even if her win records aren't good.
Today's feature is the PACE side of the equation and our Pace Analyser tells us we'd be best suited by backing a front-runner or prominent type...
Ideally we want a horse who scores 3 or more on our pace profiling and thankfully, by clicking the pace tab, we can see how this field usually runs and we have four horses with at least three scores of 3 or more in their last four outings...
...and these four would be the ones I'd look at firstly. That said, I don't think Belles Benefit is going to have much chance here, so I'd be taking All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame as my three against the field.
Summary
From All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame that I've taken from the pace stats, All The Glory has the best place record under these conditions, but doesn't win often enough. That said, she's available at 13/2 and that's a decent E/W option in my opinion, especially if your bookie is paying three places.
As for a winner, I think The Height of Fame edges it via a superior record at today's type of trip and she's currently the 3/1 fav. I'd expect her to beat A Tickatickatiming, whose own 5/1 ticket isn't long enough for me to consider an E/W punt.
