PLUMPTON – MAY 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £163.10 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 52.8% units went through – Evens* & 16/1
Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 & 12/1 (5/2)
Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 4/1
Race 4: 45.5% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 20/1
Race 5: 47.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 17/2 – 9/2 (5/2)
Race 6: 40.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* (Win only event – 4 ran)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Jumping Jack) & 2 (Crushed)
Leg 2 (2.45): 10 (Sweet’N’Chic), 6 (Good News) & 5 (Now Listen here)
Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Ballycoe), 3 (Darebin), 2 (The Fresh Prince) & 1 (Red Hanrahan)
Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Makethedifference), 3 (Kalaskadesemilley) & 9 (Austin Fryers)
Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Whoshotwho) & 3 (Mellow Ben)
Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (King Cool), 4 (Remember Forever) & 5 (Hill Fort)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last thirteen contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013. Unfortunately, last year’s only vintage representative was beaten but this time around, you have no chance of losing money because no five-year-olds have been declared. The stats become even more frustrating when you digest the fact that Gary Moore is only conspicuous by his absence despite saddling two of the last three winners! Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that JUMPING JACK should at least secure a Placepot position if he fails to win which is doubtful because at the time of writing, CRUSHED (the horse I suspected to be the main danger) is friendless on the exchanges.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (four winners), whilst 30 of the 40 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less. That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them! Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years. Gary improved those stats last year by scoring with the even money favourite.
2.45: This is the first of five races which witness 11 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, over a quarter of the list of declarations in those events. This was the race which helped the Placepot to produce a half decent dividend last year. That said, the pot was worth £6.62 (after deductions) following the first two legs and with a win only race later on the card, holders of live Placepot units might have thought they were in a for a great dividend later in the day. Back to basics by informing that seven of the last eight winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which suggests that SWEET’N’CHIC should be there or thereabouts, though the 7/2 trade press quote looks a tad skinny. KEEP TO THE BEAT is one of the other two qualifiers via the weight trend to consider, though more logical winners include GOOD NEWS and NOW LISTEN HERE according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4. Four of the last five winners scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1, whilst a 20/1 chance filled the runner-up position twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
3.15: This was the Placepot finale last year when the favourite won at 11/8 in a win only event. Out of interest, the winner was 6/4 in terms of the remaining Placepot units going into the final leg. These win only Placepot events tend to reflect the starting prices unless there are real outsiders in the contest. One recent event I focussed on concerned a horse which was backed down to 7/1 from double those odds (without winning) which was a 52/1 chance via Placepot percentages! With fifteen of the last sixteen winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just four) in the line up, with BALLYCOE being the exception on this occasion. As the outsider of the party in the dead of night, I’m certainly not ruling out his chance, whereby I will include all four runners before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 15 renewals of this contest have been won by market leaders. Half (8/16) of the jollies have secured Placepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the field:
3.50: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals (vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around) though arguably their main hope AUSTIN FRYERS has plenty to prove following an indifferent set of ‘recent’ results. Either way, preference is for NAME THE DIFFERENCE (subject of overnight support) and KALASKADESEMILLEY. GIN AND TONIC would have also made the short list but for noticing that his ratio of placed efforts between April and September stands at 0/11.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via seven renewals to date, statistics which include four successful (7/2, 2/1, 15/8 & even money) market leaders.
Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:
1/4—Austin Fryers (good)
1/3—Brother Bennett (good to soft)
4.25: DING DING was third in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting two years ago before finishing last of the seven finishers in this event twelve months back. Sheena West’s seven year old registered a course ratio of 3/9 before that contest prior to the updated figures you can see below. Nicky Henderson saddled a well beaten runner in the contest last year, whereby slight preference is for WHOSHOTWHO and MELLOW BEN over Brave Eagle who might represent poor value for money, especially from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.
Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:
4/14—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)
1/3—San Pedro De Senam (heavy)
2/16—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)
4.55: A teaser of a finale in our closing event, with my short list consisting of KING COOL, REMEMBER FOREVER and HILL FORT, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.
Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished second (claiming Placepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before the 10/3 favourite went on the missing list two years ago. Thankfully (for favourite backers), the 13/8 market leader obliged twelve months on.
Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/7—Remember Forever (good to firm)
3/20—Flugzeug (good to firm – good – good to soft)
1/8—Roparta Avenue (good)
1/5—Charming Lad (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.