Double Dutch, 20th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 20th March 2015

Wow! Rosenbaum's gutsy win aside, I got Thursday spectacularly wrong.

I have high hopes for both picks at Chepstow, but was equally frustrated and disappointed at what I saw. It's A Long Road ran poorly and was pulled up well before the finish, whilst Eaton Rock fared little better, coming home a distant last of the seven finishers, some 38 lengths behind his nearest rival and the best part of 100 lengths behind the winner.

And it actually looked worse than that!

All of which meant that Rosenbaum's later victory was only for pride, but he ran well and should be commended for that, if nothing else, whilst our fourth runner of the day was as poor as the first two, finishing 9th of 12.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Eaton Rock : u/p at 7/1 (adv 6/1)
It's A Long Road : PU at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Rosenbaum : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
That Man of Mine : u/p at 11/4 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
521 winning selections from 1822 = 28.59%
163 winning bets in 472 days = 34.53%

Stakes: 943.50pts
Returns: 1059.17pts

P/L : +115.67pts (+12.26% ROI)

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After a difficult few days, winners from these would be nice...

2.30 Sedgefield:

Light The City is in great form at present and could be difficult to stop/beat. A winner over hurdles two starts ag and a winner of a chase here at Sedgefield just 10 days ago puts him in contention for a cross code hat-trick today. He jumps well, stays well, like the track and conditions and his six wins on the flat will ensure he's not outpaced either.

All told, Light The City is 3 from 6 here at Sedgefield and 2/4 over course and distance in hurdles contests and a quick look at his career stats suggest this is the best time year to catch him and he prefers small fields on soft ground. Tick, tick, tick and he's 11/4 BOG if you fancy him to beat...

...Mad For Road, who was also a winner last time out, finally getting off the mark after a string of near misses. That win was also over this course and distance and whilst an overall hurdles record of 1/16 isn't confidence-inspiring, he's clearly in the best form of his life so far and that probably explains why he's back out within 19 days of that debut win.

Mind you, he did win well that day, heading Beyondtemptation at the last before opening up a four length lead on the run-in. The runner-up has already turned out again, winning herself by six lengths at Hexham last Thursday. If the form holds out and the bookie of Dougie Costello is as significant as I think it might be, then Mad For Road could follow up at 9/4 BOG.


9.05 Dundalk:

Friday wouldn't be Friday without some A/W action and this race looks like one we can capitalise from, if things fall in place. It's a non-handicap where all runners carry 9-5, suggesting that those rated highest could be seen as being thrown in and it's no surprise to see that the market is headed by runners rated 79 & 75, with the others on 70, 68 & 61.

Logic says the higher rated would carry more weight in a handicap and so my two here are Poitin at 15/8 BOG and Windward Passage at 2/1 BOG.

Windward Passage is making his A/W debut, but he'll have been schooled on an artificial surface enough before coming here and being by Dubawi should handle this well enough. He's in decent nick, having two wins and a place from his last five starts and is proven at this trip.

Poitin, on the other hand, has raced here in both her starts in Ireland since coming over from England. She was fourth over 1m4f (beaten by less than 3 lengths) five weeks ago, before going on to win over the same trip by 2.5 lengths a fortnight later. She has also won over shorter trips in the past, so the drop back in distance shouldn't be an issue.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mad For Road / Poitin @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Mad For Road / Windward Passage @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Light The City / Poitin @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Light The City / Windward Passage @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 29th January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 29th January 2014

Milosam failed to complete the course and distance four-timer at Taunton yesterday, as he was headed deep into the run-in to go down by a neck and with Mentalist unseating his rider 4 from home, the race and the double were both gone.

In race 2, Stun Gun finished a neck in front of De Lesseps, but unfortunately there was another two horses in front of them. All of which means another loss in this cold spell for DD and a further erosion of our profit.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Milosam: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Mentalist: UR at 11/4  (adv 7/2)
Stun Gun: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
De Lesseps: 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/1)

Results to date:
129 winning selections from 463 = 27.86%
41 winning doubles in 124 days = 33.06%

Stakes: 246.00pts
Returns: 248.04pts

P/L : +2.04pts (+0.83% ROI)

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Both the wins trike rate and the doubles strike rate are now below my personal targets and the profits are almost wiped out from these recent poor run. Today is the last "free bet" and the lack of racing doesn't inspire, but every race has a winner, we just need to find them!

5.20 Kempton

Poitin just failed to get home last time out over 1m4f here six days ago, but ran very well to go down by just three parts of a length. This came on the back of a very creditable 4th place over course and distance a fortnight earlier and the drop back to that 1m2f is sure to suit today. Harry Dunlop's filly carries bottom weight here off the same mark as last week. She "gets" the surface OK, having won once and placed twice from her last five efforts here and looks most likely to me at a generally available 9/4 BOG.

The alternate pick is Apache Glory, who looks massively overpriced at the 10/1 BOG on offer in places. I was expecting her to be around the 5/1 mark for this contest and she's worth an E/W bet on her own. She won three times in early 2013 and was unlucky to be beaten over this same 1m2f trip at Lingfield last time out, when beaten by a short head.

This is her best trip, as she has four wins and 2 places from just 10 efforts at 1m2f and if there's a decent early pace, she could be the one to strike late on.


7.20 Kempton:

Not the easiest race to call, but I think today might be the day that Saffire Song sheds her maiden tag at the 9th time of asking. She stayed on well over 5f at Lingfield five days ago when beaten by three-quarters of a length, but the way she finished that race suggests that she's ready for the step back to this 6f trip and although this is a fairly well-matched set of runners here, it wouldn't actually take much to win the race and a repeat of last week's run could be enough. Saffire Song is the selection at 100/30 BOG in most places.

Female Strategy is an interesting runner on handicap debut. With just three runs under her belt and dropped back in trip today, there's obviously lots of scope for improvement upon reasonable if not impressive runs on the A/W at Wolverhampton in her last two races. Sired by Holy Roman Emperor and closely related to several winners 6f to a mile, she could be one to watch at a widely available 3/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with BetVictor as follows:

Poitin / Female Strategy @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1)
Poitin / Saffire Song @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 )
Apache Glory / Female Strategy @ 43/1 (10/1 & 3/1 also Bet365, Hills & Stan James)
Apache Glory / Saffire Song @ 46.67/1 (10/1 & 10/3 also Coral, Stan James)