Posts

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.40 Yarmouth : Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG (9/5 after a 40p R4!) WON at 7/4 (With leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong to by a length and a quarter)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm  ground worth £18,675 to the winner...

Why?...

This in-form three year old filly comes here off the back of three wins on the bounce, all over this trip up at Carlisle with today's jockey Paul Mulrennan in the saddle for two of the wins. She has now won five of her ten starts and whilst this is tougher, up in class and weight, there's still a suggestion that she remains ahead of the handicapper. Her suitability for the task ahead is highlighted by her current career achievements that include...

  • 5/8 over 6f, 5/7 in fields of 5-9 runners and 4/8 after less than a month's rest
  • 4/7 this year, 4/7 in handicaps and 3/5 under Paul Mulrennan
  • 3/5 on Good to Firm, 3/3 at 4/1 and shorter and 1/1 here at Ponty, acquired over course and distance

Her trainer, Michael Dods, has done well with his LTO winners of late with 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) making 40.3pts (+87.6% ROI) over the past 12 months and whilst 46 isn't a huge sample size, there's enough there to make some assumptions about Michael's MO with these LTO winners.

I say this because there are a myriad of profitable angles at play with these 46 runners and I could produce a long list of reasons why this horse is running here today, but I'll hold back the data geek in me and "just" give you 16 of those angles that are relevant today. So from the original 14 from 46, we have...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 49.6pts (+150.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 13/29 (44.8%) for 50.5pts (+174.1%) over trips of 6f and shorter
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 34.6pts (+84.3%) on the Flat
  • 12/26 (46.2%) for 36.3pts (+139.6%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 21.9pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 10/18 (55.6%) for 45.6pts (+253.3%) with 2-6 previous distance wins
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 31.1pts (+148.1%) from previous track winners
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 23.8pts (+103.4%) stepping up by a class or two
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 31.05pts (+207%) in August/September
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.2pts (+171.5%) with female runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17.7pts (+118.1%) from previous C&D winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17pts (+113.1%) over a 6f trip
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 11.5pts (+71.6%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.7pts (+31.4%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+210%) at Class 2
  • and last but not least...2/2 (100%) for 8.92pts (+446%) in fillies races

As you can expect, the above can be used as a kind of "pick and mix", but this does dilute the sample size each time you add another filter. However you might (or equally might not) be interested to know that from the above...

...Flat hcps + 5-6f + 5/1 and shorter + <30dslr = 7/8 (87.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+369.7% ROI) and all had at least 1 previous distance win...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday with Bet365 offering a little more, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.55 Newbury : Space Ace @ 4/1 BOG  7th at 11/2 (In touch, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.50 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highly Sprung @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has two wins and two places from his last six outings, culminating in a course and distance win last time out, 10 days ago under today's jockey Harrison Shaw.

He has actually won 5 times here from 13, making the frame on three further occasions with an excellent 5 wins, 2 places from 11 over course and distance.

His trainer Les Eyre has 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+42.3% ROI) in handicaps since the start of 2016 with horses turned back out within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO, from which...

  • 16/43 (37.2%) for 46.3pts (+107.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 15/2
  • 14/56 (25%) for 26.6pts (+47.5%) on the Flat
  • 14/39 (35.9%) for 34.4pts (+88.2%) within 10 days of their last run
  • 9/25 (36%) for 21pts (+84%) over 5-6 furlongs
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 19.78pts (+123.6%) in August/September
  • 6/15 (40%) for 11.8pts (+78.5%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 12.6pts (+15.7%) in August
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.94pts (+84.9%) here at Pontefract...

...whilst those racing over 5-6 furlongs on the Flat at odds of 6/4 to 15/2 within 10 days of their last run are 5/10 (50% SR) for 17.88pts (178.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Highly Sprung @ 6/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 6.35pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/2 BOG  knocking about. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.50 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left to challenge, led just inside final furlong, hung right closing stages, ran on to win comfortably by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.05 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Kinks @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £9238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding hasn't quite scaled the heights expected of him so far, having been entered into races at Gr 2 & Listed class last season, but does at least come here off the back of a decent run LTO in a big field (14 ran) Class 2 handicap at Newmarket 23 days ago when he was third, beaten by just a neck and a short head under jockey Nicola Currie.

I've nothing bad to say about Nicola, I think she's very talented, but the booking of Silvestre de Sousa, in her place, on a track where he has been very successful in the past is a positive move for me, as is the drop in class. In fact Silvestre comes here in decent touch having ridden 13 winners from his last 68 rides over the previous fortnight and boasts a record of better than 2 in 9 at this venue since 2010 over trips up to 1m2f, winning 55 of 246 (22.4% SR) for 87.3pts (+35.5% ROI) profit.

Trainer Mick Channon also does pretty well here too, independently of the jockey's successes and over the last five seasons, Mick's runners here are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 75.6pts (+145.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at 6-60 days since last run : 13/41 (31.7%) for 88.6pts (+211.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 : 8/20 (40%) for 12.22pts (+61.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 65.6pts (+234.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 7/15 946.7%) for 49.9pts (+332.5%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 7/16 (43.8%) for 34.4pts (+214.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 26.5pts (+126.2%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.3pts (+162.3%)
  • and class droppers are 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 29.2pts (+243.5%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kinks @ 7/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left to challenge, led just inside final furlong, hung right closing stages, ran on to win comfortably by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.05 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinks @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £9238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding hasn't quite scaled the heights expected of him so far, having been entered into races at Gr 2 & Listed class last season, but does at least come here off the back of a decent run LTO in a big field (14 ran) Class 2 handicap at Newmarket 23 days ago when he was third, beaten by just a neck and a short head under jockey Nicola Currie.

I've nothing bad to say about Nicola, I think she's very talented, but the booking of Silvestre de Sousa, in her place, on a track where he has been very successful in the past is a positive move for me, as is the drop in class. In fact Silvestre comes here in decent touch having ridden 13 winners from his last 68 rides over the previous fortnight and boasts a record of better than 2 in 9 at this venue since 2010 over trips up to 1m2f, winning 55 of 246 (22.4% SR) for 87.3pts (+35.5% ROI) profit.

Trainer Mick Channon also does pretty well here too, independently of the jockey's successes and over the last five seasons, Mick's runners here are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 75.6pts (+145.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at 6-60 days since last run : 13/41 (31.7%) for 88.6pts (+211.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 : 8/20 (40%) for 12.22pts (+61.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 65.6pts (+234.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 7/15 946.7%) for 49.9pts (+332.5%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 7/16 (43.8%) for 34.4pts (+214.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 26.5pts (+126.2%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.3pts (+162.3%)
  • and class droppers are 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 29.2pts (+243.5%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kinks @ 7/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Goodwood : Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, carried left after, bumped slightly inside final furlong, led close home) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground, worth £12450 to the winner...

Why?

A lightly raced, so therefore relatively unexposed 4 yr old gelding makes just his sixth start today, but has made the frame in each of his previous five outings in a form line reading 32111 and comes here off the back of a win in a similar Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2.5f on good to soft ground, so he should be fine with race conditions.

That win took him to 2 from 2 on Turf, 2/2 in handicaps and 2/2 at 10-10.5 furlongs and was actually his yard debut for trainer Kevin Frost whose horses are going really well right now, having won 9 of 31 (29% SR) for 43.8pts (+141.4% ROI) over the past two months, from which (and of note/relevance today)...

  • male runners are 8/26 (30.8%) for 32.2pts (+123.7%)
  • handicappers are 6/26 (23.1%) for 33.1pts (+127.5%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.1pts (+123.3%)
  • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 7/20 (35%) for 12.45pts (+62.25%)
  • at trips of 10.5f and shorter : 6/17 (35.3%) for 41.2pts (+242.4%)
  • his only runner of the day : 5/16 (31.25%) for 31.7pts (+198%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 3/10 (30%) for 22.84pts (+228.4%)
  • LTO winners are 4/7 (57.1%) for 30.6pts (+437.1%)
  • and on the Flat : 2/6 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+606.3%)

As seen above, his LTO winners have a good record of following up and that has been the case for most of this year with 6 of 14 (42.9% SR) managing to "double up" generating profits of 33.2pts (+237.2% ROI) and these include...

  • 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 14.51pts (+207.3%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 36.57pts (+609.5%) from his 3 & 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.89pts (+98.2%) after less than three weeks rest
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 24.75pts (+495%) when using a jockey claiming 3lbs
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 31.11pts (+777.8%) over trips of 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG , a price offered by all five firms to have broken cover by 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.55 Sandown : Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Well off the pace in last pair in main group, sustained headway on wide outside hung right and went 2nd over 1f out, led inside final furlong, stayed on well)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding caught the eye when winning at (relatively) nearby Ripon 23 days ago over this same trip in a better (C3) contest than the one he faces today. He is admittedly up 5lbs for that win, but in fairness he did fairly hose up, making all without going flat out to finish 3L ahead of his nearest rival. The rise in weight is partially offset by the jockey's 3lb claim and the drop in class should also help his/our cause.

Trainer Roger Fell is 13 from 86 (15.1% SR) for 14.1pts (+16.4% ROI) with his LTO winners, of whose those racing on the Flat (turf) 10/65 (15.4%) for 21.8pts (+33.6%) and of these 65 runners those whose LTO win was 11-25 days earlier are 5 from 26 (19.2%) for 26.94pts (+103.6%)

i.e. Roger Fell's male LTO winners running on the Flat 11-25 days after that win are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 28.94pts (+120.6% ROI)

In addition to the above, if you'd blindly backed all Roger's Flat handicappers priced at 5/2 to 8/1 over trips of 1m3f and shorter during his short training career to date, you'd have already bagged yourself 35 winners from 182 (19.2% SR), earning yourself 39.7pts profit at an ROI of 21.8%...

...enough (IMO) to risk... a 1pt win bet on Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening, although I'll be settling up officially based on the 9/2 BOG from 10Bet, Ladbrokes and SportPesa . To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.50 Wolverhampton : My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG 8th at 11/4 (Led until over 2f out, soon lost place and hastily retreated)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Quoteline Direct @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG***

In a 9-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

Over the last nine months, this 5 yr old gelding has raced seven times, making the frame on five occasions and going on to to win twice, including a win here at Ponty over course and distance eight days ago when last seen. A fairly quick turnaround might be the key to maintaining his form as his run prior to that win was nine days earlier.

He's trained by Micky Hammond, who since 2010 has saddled 24 winners at this track and although it has needed 247 runners (9.7% SR) to get there, backing all of them has actually been quite profitable with 55.3pts equating to some 22.4% of stakes.

The strike rate and ROI have improved in recent years, however and since the start of last season, Micky has had 7 winners from 39 (18% SR) here for profits of 36.1pts (+92.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at Class 5 : 6/29 (20.7%) for 43.9pts (+151.3%)
  • more than 1 week but less than 4 weeks rest : 6/22 (27.3%) for 41.7pts (+189.6%)
  • over trips of a mile to a mile and a half : 5/22 (22.7%) for 42.1pts (+191.4%)
  • those finishing in the first three home LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 35.1pts (+219.1%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.38pts (+30.7%)...

...whilst Class 5 runners racing over trips of a mile to a mile and a half after finishing in the first three home LTO more than 1 week but less than 4 weeks earlier are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for profits of 34pts at an ROI of 566.7% with a 1 from 1 record on Good to Firm ground acquired by Quoteline Direct LTO!

More generally, horses racing at Classes 4 to 6 at the same class as an LTO C&D success by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 181/516 (35.1% SR) for 119.9pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of 2013 (trust me, it's really not as complicated in practice as it looks in print!) and of these 516...

  • those now priced at 13/2 and shorter are 177/465 (38.1%) for 129.1pts (+27.8%)
  • males are 141/400 (35.3%) for 98pts (+24.5%)
  • on the Flat : 55/164 (33.5%) for 39.6pts (+24.2%)
  • and at Class 5 : 60/156 (38.5%) for 56.1pts (+35.9%)

...from which we get Class 5 males at 13/2 and shorter on the Flat winning 16 of 35 (44.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+67.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Quoteline Direct @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG***which was available from Bet365 & Betway respectively at 6.00pm on Monday evening (I'll be using 4/1 for my records, of course). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

PLEASE NOTE : WEDNESDAY'S SELECTION WON'T APPEAR UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING!

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)

Next up is Friday's...

8.30 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner... 

Why?

A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.

Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan's charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today's jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.

Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.

I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
  • those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
  • in May/June  :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
  • females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
  • ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
  • in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
  • and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)

AND...if you did want a small "bet and forget" micro, you could back...LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG  which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.05 York : Defoe @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 Held up towards rear, headway far side of group over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by half a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Pontefract...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in a 5f sprint handicap getting a more than useful 5lb weight for age (WFA) allowance is the icing on top of the main SotD cake before looking at his trainer, Richard Fahey whose record here at "Ponty" stands at 74/406 (18.2% SR) for 144.3pts (35.5% ROI) over the last 9 seasons, but to show I'm not relying on some old data, I'm just going to focus on his record since 2013 ie approx 4.5 seasons.

In this time, his runners are 46/233 (19.7% SR) for 101pts (+43.3% ROI), from which...

  • those priced in the broad 10/11 to 11/1 spectrum are 45/187 (24.1%) for 70.9pts (+37.9%)
  • those who have raced in the last 7 weeks are 32/165 (19.4%) for 19.2pts (+11.7%)
  • in the June-August mid season period : 21/107 (19.6%) for 92.6pts (+86.6%)
  • on Good ground : 18/101 (17.8%) for 60.1pts (+59.5%)
  • Class 5 : 16/87 (18.4%) for 71.6pts (+82.3%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO : 24/83 (28.9%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • those beaten by 3 lengths or less LTO are 14/52 (26.9%) for 31.7pts (+60.9%)
  • those ridden by Paul Hanagan are 9/36 (25%) for 13.6pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/35 (31.4%) for 32.8pts (+93.8%)
  • and those placed 2nd LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 29.5pts (+101.8%)

And if we're having icing (the WFA) on our cake, we're going to need a cherry too! So the cherry on the icing is the fact that with a Geegeez Speed Rating of 93, he's some 18 clear of his nearest rival and regular forum readers will know that blindly backing our top rated runners at the 5f trip is profitable. Those who didn't know that, really need to subscribe to this thread.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Pontefract...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.05 York : Defoe @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 Held up towards rear, headway far side of group over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by half a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Pontefract...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in a 5f sprint handicap getting a more than useful 5lb weight for age (WFA) allowance is the icing on top of the main SotD cake before looking at his trainer, Richard Fahey whose record here at "Ponty" stands at 74/406 (18.2% SR) for 144.3pts (35.5% ROI) over the last 9 seasons, but to show I'm not relying on some old data, I'm just going to focus on his record since 2013 ie approx 4.5 seasons.

In this time, his runners are 46/233 (19.7% SR) for 101pts (+43.3% ROI), from which...

  • those priced in the broad 10/11 to 11/1 spectrum are 45/187 (24.1%) for 70.9pts (+37.9%)
  • those who have raced in the last 7 weeks are 32/165 (19.4%) for 19.2pts (+11.7%)
  • in the June-August mid season period : 21/107 (19.6%) for 92.6pts (+86.6%)
  • on Good ground : 18/101 (17.8%) for 60.1pts (+59.5%)
  • Class 5 : 16/87 (18.4%) for 71.6pts (+82.3%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO : 24/83 (28.9%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • those beaten by 3 lengths or less LTO are 14/52 (26.9%) for 31.7pts (+60.9%)
  • those ridden by Paul Hanagan are 9/36 (25%) for 13.6pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/35 (31.4%) for 32.8pts (+93.8%)
  • and those placed 2nd LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 29.5pts (+101.8%)

And if we're having icing (the WFA) on our cake, we're going to need a cherry too! So the cherry on the icing is the fact that with a Geegeez Speed Rating of 93, he's some 18 clear of his nearest rival and regular forum readers will know that blindly backing our top rated runners at the 5f trip is profitable. Those who didn't know that, really need to subscribe to this thread.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Pontefract...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Ffos Las : Tommy Silver @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Tracked front pair, driven approaching 3 out, lost place next, ridden and weakened before last)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Mount Moriah at 100/30 BOG

Why?

A former winner at both trip and class and also under today's jockey, this 2yr old has the benefit of being trained by Ralph Beckett, who is one of those rare breeds of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly.

Since 2008, backing every one of Ralph's 3693 runners would have given you 612 winners (16.6% SR) and 654.8pts (+17.7% ROI) of "bet and forget " profits, although an average of around 400 bets per year might well be too much for many people, so we'll make some logical steps to reduce the outlay, as follows...

  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5f are 244/1476 (16.55) for 297.1pts (+20.1%)
  • Class 5 runners are 285/1450 (19.7%) for 295.7pts (+20.4%)
  • 2 yr olds are 181/1149 (15.75%) for 324.3pts (+28.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 128/452 (28.3%) for 195.2pts (+43.2%)
  • and here at Pontefract : 9/28 (32.1%) for 12.14pts (+43.4%)

AND... 2 yr olds who were runners-up LTO and now run at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 8.5f at odds of 7/2 or shorter are 14 from 30 (46.7% SR) for 7.54pts (+25.1% ROI)

If we then also take a quick look back at that 9/28 record here at Ponty, we can also discover that...

  • Class 5 = 5/17 (29.4%), 2nd LTO = 3/4 (75%), 2 yr olds = 2/3 (66.6%) and on soft ground = 1 from 2.

Mount Moriah is also Ralph's only runner at this meeting today and such solo runners are 304/1639 (18.6% SR) for 349.1pts (+21.3% ROI) since 2008 and those that were his only runner anywhere that day have won 147 of 699 (21%) for a more than useful return of 212.6pts (+30.4%) with Class 5 races providing 78 winners from 308 (25.3%) for 170.5pts (+55.4%).

So it's a 1pt win bet on Mount Moriah at 100/30 BOG, from Betfair Sports, who headed the market at 11.30pm on Sunday night, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Pontefract.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Ffos Las : Tommy Silver @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Tracked front pair, driven approaching 3 out, lost place next, ridden and weakened before last)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mount Moriah at 100/30 BOG

Why?

A former winner at both trip and class and also under today's jockey, this 2yr old has the benefit of being trained by Ralph Beckett, who is one of those rare breeds of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly.

Since 2008, backing every one of Ralph's 3693 winners would have given you 612 winners (16.6% SR) and 654.8pts (+17.7% ROI) of "bet and forget " profits, although an average of around 400 bets per year might well be too much for many people, so we'll make some logical steps to reduce the outlay, as follows...

  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5f are 244/1476 (16.55) for 297.1pts (+20.1%)
  • Class 5 runners are 285/1450 (19.7%) for 295.7pts (+20.4%)
  • 2 yr olds are 181/1149 (15.75%) for 324.3pts (+28.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 128/452 (28.3%) for 195.2pts (+43.2%)
  • and here at Pontefract : 9/28 (32.1%) for 12.14pts (+43.4%)

AND... 2 yr olds who were runners-up LTO and now run at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 8.5f at odds of 7/2 or shorter are 14 from 30 (46.7% SR) for 7.54pts (+25.1% ROI)

If we then also take a quick look back at that 9/28 record here at Ponty, we can also discover that...

  • Class 5 = 5/17 (29.4%), 2nd LTO = 3/4 (75%), 2 yr olds = 2/3 (66.6%) and on soft ground = 1 from 2.

Mount Moriah is also Ralph's only runner at this meeting today and such solo runners are 304/1639 (18.6% SR) for 349.1pts (+21.3% ROI) since 2008 and those that were his only runner anywhere that day have won 147 of 699 (21%) for a more than useful return of 212.6pts (+30.4%) with Class 5 races providing 78 winners from 308 (25.3%) for 170.5pts (+55.4%).

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Mount Moriah at 100/30 BOG, from Betfair Sports, who headed the market at 11.30pm on Sunday night, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Pontefract.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.35 Goodwood : Admiralty Arch @ 11/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Always struggling in rear and last home, around 17 L off the pace!)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.40 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highly Sprung at 4/1 BOG

Why?

Three wins and 2 places from this 3 yr old's last six outings, including a very comfortable 5 length success at Yarmouth 8 days ago. His wide draw and penalty will make life tougher, but odds of 4/1 BOG about a horse who is still 4lbs well in and clearly thriving are almost impossible to ignore (and we proved earlier in the week that a wide draw isn't necessarily a killer).

He does get a useful 2lbs weight for age allowance against these older horses and his recent form over 6 furlongs is excellent at 12131. He has finished 2131 in the last four outings under Silvestre de Sousa, he has won 2 of 3 (211) Class 4 contests, 1 of 2 (21) over this course and distance and has a records of 4 from 10 at odds of 13/8 to 4/1.

So, I'm happy with the race conditions being suitable and I'm more buoyed by the fact that trainer and jockey both have good strike rates at this Yorkshire venue, but more interestingly they do very well together with 20 winners from 71 (28.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 31.5pts at an ROI of 44.4%.

The horse's form & stats allied to that trainer/jockey record would be enough for me here to be honest, but further reassurance is found when a closer look at those 71 Johnston/De Sousa match-ups shows that...

  • males are 18/52 (34.6%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 14/40 (35%) for 43.4pts (+108.5%)
  • those who last ran 4 to 15 days ago are 15/36 (41.7%) for 47.5pts (+131.9%)

AND...I'll sign off on this one, by telling you that Mark Johnston / Silvestre de Sousa / 3 yr old males / Pontefract / 4 to 15 days since their last run = 10/17 (58.8% ROI) for profits of 51.9pts (+305.2% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highly Sprung at 4/1 BOG, which was available from Hills, BetVictor, Paddy Power and/or Ladbrokes at 6.35pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Pontefract.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...