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Double Dutch, 14th April 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 14th April 2014

Good Morning Everyone! I'm back in the hot seat after my spring break and I'll be looking to pick up from the excellent form displayed by the boss in my absence.

No joy on Saturday, though, as we hit the woodwork in both races. Al Thakira went down by a head in the Fred Darling with Joyeuse a further length and a quarter back in third, whilst we also had to settle for second best at Bangor later in the afternoon.

How's My Friend was the runner-up there after fellow selection Best Served Cold had unseated his rider. Three placers from four is decent and Matt has ramped up some good profits in my absence, something we aim to continue this week.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Al Thakira: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Joyeuse: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
---------------------------------
How's My Friend: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 2/1)
Best Served Cold: UR at 8/1 (adv 7/2)

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Results to date:
210 winning selections from 727 = 28.89%
70 winning bets in 190 days = 36.84%

Stakes: 378pts
Returns: 444.91pts

P/L : +66.91pts (+17.70% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

This is how I'm going to play on Monday...

3.40 Pontefract:

Ten go to post for this one, but I can see it being a match between the top two in the market, namely New Youmzain and Tartan Jura.

Matt likes New Youmzain for his daily Shortlist and it's easy to see why, when you look at our racecard analysis. Prior success at this class and on this going are in his favour, as is the size of field and he runs off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win. This lower mark is what first caught my eye, as the horses do very well statistically.

He makes his debut for the in-form Mick Appleby today and Mick has a great record with horses running for him first time out, making New Youmzain the one to beat here at 15/8 BOG.

Tartan Jura is no mug, either. He is, however, top weight and carrying a penalty for a win last week and this probably is the main reason that he's as long as 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. He was doing his best work at the end of that race and looked like he was finding more all the time and should relish the step up to this marathon task today. I wouldn't see him beating New Youmzain over a shorter trip, but if the favourite doesn't stay, Tartan Jura is the most likely of the challengers here.

5.20 Windsor:

I looked at this race last night and selected Lockedoutaheaven for Stat of the Day, but he's now one of two non-runners here leaving just eight to go to post and clearing the way for either Wylye or Love Tangle to seize their opportunity of my first choice's withdrawal.

Of the two, I have a slight preference for the longer priced Love Tangle at 100/30 BOG with BetVictor. he got off the mark at the second time of asking in his last race at Nottingham back in November over 8.5f and although the form hasn't worked out too well from that race, he was still a good winner and his breeding suggests that he'll prefer the extra 3f asked of him here today.

Wylye's sole effort to date was a win on debut at Newbury 170 days ago. She rallied inside the final furlong that day to stay on and win by a neck in testing heavy conditions over a mile and whilst this trip is an unknown factor here, the ground will be far less taxing on her stamina reserves. Several of the horses she beat that day have gone on to run well since and her trainer Andrew Balding's three-year olds are running well of late, giving us hope that she's going to be the main rival to our selection. She drops down in class here today and can be backed at a best price of 15/8 BOG with Boylesports.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
New Youmzain / Wylye @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Boylesports)
New Youmzain / Love Tangle @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Boylesports & PP)
Tartan Jura / Wylye @ 12.75/1 (4/1 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Tartan Jura / Love Tangle @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Hills)

Double Dutch, 21st October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 21st October 2013

No joy yesterday on a day blighted by withdrawals. Two of our four selections were non-runners, severely reducing our chances and all we could manage was a 2nd and a 3rd on the day.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Some Officer: 2nd at 2/1 (after R4!) (SP 6/4)
Seskinane: non-runner
---------------------------------
Cap Elorn: 3rd at 4/1
Alfraamsey: non-runner

Trial to date:
50 winning selections from 165 = 30.30%
15 winning doubles in 46 days = 32.61%

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Stakes: 90.0pts
Returns: 94.9pts

P/L : +4.9pts (+5.44% ROI)

Flat racing action from Yorkshire today as we tackle these...

2.40 Pontefract:

I fancy this will be tight between Percy's Gal and Ribbleton and I've a slight preference for the former.

Percy's Gal was promising last time out when only beaten by a neck at Redcar over 7f. A drop back to six should help here and she's related to several winners at this trip. She travelled well until headed late on last time out and looks a decent bet at 15/8 (Boylesports).

Ribbleton can probably class himself unlucky when going down by a short head on debut at Carlisle and then when by beaten by just a length at Thirsk having shied away after being hit over the head by a rival's whip on the run in. I fear he might just miss out again here today, if Percy's Gal continue to improve upon the promise shown already, but Ribbleton is still a handy alternate at 15/8 (Stan James)

3.40 Pontefract:

This should prove to be a tight and interesting contest, but I fancy that Bow Creek will be the one to beat, based on his comprehensive victory at Newbury last time out.

He won by 6 lengths on soft over 7 furlongs last time out and still looked like he'd plenty in the tank, suggesting the step up to a mile shouldn't be an issue. The manner of that win allied to the fact that he's the only soft ground winner in this pack makes him my pick at 13/8 with BetVictor.

The obvious danger to me is the 9/4 shot Safety Check, who at least has winning form on Good to Soft ground and drops down in class from Group 3 racing to appear here and appears to be the best of the rest in this one.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Percy's Gal / Bow Creek @ 7.21 with William Hill
Percy's Gal / Safety Check @ 8.94 with Boylesports, Paddy Power & Stan James
Ribbleton / Bow Creek @ 7.21 with Stan James
Ribbleton / Safety Check @ 9.36 with Stan James

Double Dutch, 26th September 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 26th September 2013

Our recent mini-revival was halted yesterday, as we failed to find a winner in either race, with our selections finishing 2nd & 3rd in both contests. Al Muheer stayed on well in race 1, but couldn't quite get to the winner, going down by a half-length with Jo'Burg a further 3 lengths back.

Race 2 was similarly frustrating, as I'd omitted the wrong horse of the three main players. Outrageous Request was headed on the run in and was beaten by just a neck, whilst It's A Man's World was just two lengths off the pace in third.

Such are the margins in this fine sport, I suppose!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

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Al Muheer : 2nd
Jo'Burg: 3rd
---------------------------------
Outrageous Request: 2nd
It's A Man's World: 3rd

Trial to date:

19 winning selections from 77 = 24.68%
4 winning doubles in 21 days = 19.05%

Stakes: 41pts
Returns: 19.9pts

P/L : -21.10pts (-51.46% ROI)

A quick return to winning ways is needed today courtesy of:

2.55 Pontefract:

This is an interesting 4-runner race, where all the competitors won last time out, but I really like Flora Medici for this one. She comes here absolutely bang in form, having won three of her last four starts (all on similarly quick ground to today). She looked like she wanted further last time out, when her one length victory was more comfortable than the bare result looked. She gets an extra furlong today, which should suit and the selection is only tempered by a 3lb rise in weight, which is reflected in her odds of 11/4.

There's actually little to choose between the rest, but I'd expect the 13/8 favourite Tender Emotion to be the main threat. She represents the in-form Appleby / Barzalona combination and probably has most scope for improvement of the four on show here. She hasn't been overburdened with her opening handicap mark and although she's a little shorter than I'd like, she's an excellent back-up selection.

5.50 Pontefract

I may have read this wrong (and it wouldn't be the first time), but I can't see the 13/8 warm favourite The Wizard of Aus getting turned over in this one. He has been quietly progressive in each of his five runs to date finishing 76432 and was only touched off by a nose at Kempton last time out in a slowly run contest, where he stayed on well at the finish. Any repeat of that form in a race with a bit more early speed should see him break his duck.

As a secondary selection, you could turn to three or four of them, but I'm siding with 4/1 shot Abundantly, who has the benefit of having already scored over this course and distance on her only visit here in the past. Her overall record of 12172 over this trip suggests this is her optimum trip and that last defeat was by just a short head, as she failed to get home when staying on at Chepstow off the same mark as today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles all as follows:
Tender Emotion / The Wizard of Aus @ 6.86 with BetVictor and/or Stan James
Tender Emotion / Abundantly @ 13.10 with BetVictor, Coral or Stan James
Flora Medici / The Wizard of Aus @ 9.83 with Stan James
Flora Medici / Abundantly@ 18.75 with Paddy Power, Stan James or Ladbrokes

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2013

Mitcd was very disappointing all round yesterday. She drifted out from our advised 6/1 to an SP of 8/1 and never featured. In fact she only beat one other runner home.

Little point dwelling on a poor result, as we head south down the A1 for a reunion with some familiar names/faces in the...

2.20 Pontefract

For the opening race on the card, a twelve-runner, Class 4 maiden for two-year olds. Only four of the entrants have raced before (a total of five runs between them) and Torchlighter's second place at Yarmouth (beaten by a neck) eight days ago is the only discernible piece of form.

As such, he is highly likely to be set off as favourite, but I'm going to oppose him with the unraced My Target, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and ridden by Mickael Barzalona.

We've turned to this trainer/jockey combination to good effect in the past, but it's not the combo that forms the backbone of the stats behind today's pick, as they have only combined twice at Pontefract in the past.

Saeed Bin Suroor, however, has an excellent record at this track despite not overloading it with runners. He has had 19 winners from the 64 horses he has sent here prior to today for a strike rate a shade under 30% and profits of 9.36pts (+14.63% ROI) have been recorded at all odds.

All 19 winners were priced below 8/1, ideal for SotD purposes (:D) and came from just 55 runners, a strike rate of 34.6% for profits of 18.36pts, a return of just over a third of any stakes invested.

Saeed is of course well-known for his ability to get two-year olds out and winning on debut, as a record of 34 wins from 134 debutants over the last three seasons has shown. That's just over a quarter of all his two-year old debutants going on to win at the first time of asking, yielding a more than respectable ROI of 27.4% via 36.7pts profit at level stakes.

Without filtering those results down too far, we can simply impose a 12/1 cut off point, which rids us of 10 losing bets, moving the figures to 34/124 (27.4% SR) for 46.7pts (+37.7% ROI).

One last set of numbers to throw in the mix is that Saeed bin Suroor hasn't sent any two-year olds to Pontefract since 17th October 2011, but in the preceding three seasons (ie 2009/11) he had four winners from the dozen he did send.

There's very little to tell you about the horse, My Target, himself, as he's never raced before. I can, however, tell you that he is a half-brother to Questing, who has won three Group 1 contests in the USA and also won on debut and is out of Cape Cross from a dam (Chercheuse) who was herself a winner in Listed company over both today's 6f trip and also at 7f.

Current best BOG price is 11/4 with BetVictor, but 5.0 is available on the Betfair exchange, so I'd advise you to...

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Stat of the Day, 19th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2013

No joy, but no disgrace yesterday for Srucahan, who finished 5th of the 12 runners at an SP of 12/1, after we'd taken 14's earlier in the day. The result was far closer than it seems, as our selection was only beaten by a length in an exciting finish.

The forecasted heavy ground had dried out a little and was officially soft and I think that had the going not improved, the leaders wouldn't have been able to go as quick late on and we'd be celebrating a place at the very least.

Regardless of that, Srucahan gave us a great run for our money at odds longer than I'd usually go for and I should also note that Paul Deegan's other runner at Listowel was second at 16/1.

Back to England today and more specifically Yorkshire for the...

4.00 Pontefract

Where Hughie Morrison runs Jubilante in this Class 3 Fillies handicap over six furlongs. On the face of things, she's not the obvious pick in this race: in fact our excellent interactive racecard suggests that there a few others best suited today.

However, the going is good to firm with further rain expected and an easing of the ground back to Good would play into her hands, as she has one win and one second place from her two efforts on good ground. She also has some decent efforts behind her on good to soft, but I doubt it'll get that wet!

(Incidentally, you can find all this out via the drop down buttons on the Race Analysis section of the racecard).

Closer inspection of her record to date shows that this is her first effort in this grade, but she's actually stepping down in class to compete here, after having contested a couple of decent Class 2 handicaps at Newmarket over the summer.

She was only beaten by a neck over today's 6f trip in the first of those races and she went down by just over 2 lengths when finishing 5th of 11 over 7 furlongs, where she didn't quite see the trip out.

Hughie Morrison is quite adept at dropping horses down a class in handicap events, as he has done so with 71 horses in the last three years, of which 14 (19.72%) have been returned as winners, generating 28.4pts (+40% ROI) profit in the process.

Those results are from backing all his runners blindly when dropped in class in a handicap race, but closer inspection shows that the bulk of the winners are priced in what I loosely see as SotD territory, ie 5/2 or over, but below 12/1.

I do this, because there's little profit to be made from the shorties and the longer shots don't win often enough to keep the scoreboard ticking.

If you're happy to stick with some rigid odds parameters, then the 5/2 to 11/1 bracket has yielded 13 of those 14 winners from above, but has eliminated 25 losing horses, taking the record to 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 50.6pts (+110% ROI) profits: figures that are music to my ears.

Jubilante has improved greatly over the last 12 months and has been consistent, if not prolific, as her record of 321235 shows. She's drawn well today and the drop in both class and trip are sure to help her in her bid to take this one today. I expect this to be a strongly run race, which will also be of benefit to us today, she seems to perform better when there's some early pace for her to follow.

She's been off the track for a couple of months and should be fresh and ready to go. If she shows anything like the form from Newmarket in the summer, then a 1pt win bet on Jubilante at 4/1 BOG with Stan James should us drawing from the well again. That 4/1 price is the best on offer, but I'm aware of the volatility of these markets, so please...

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The card for today's race is right here!

 

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2013

I remain woefully on the cold list this week, as Psiloveyou failed to shine at Doncaster yesterday. She started slowly and was always playing catchup. She did make some headway in the middle stages, before petering out late on. The end result: 4th at 11/4 (we took 100/30) over 11 lengths behind the winner.

One last chance of redemption for the week, and it's a fairly short journey from yesterday's effort at Doncaster to today's runner in the...

3.45 Pontefract

Where I'm siding with Nargys, trained by Luca Cumani and to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni.

Luca Cumani's horses are in excellent form at present with six winners and two placed from just twelve runners in the last week alone and a 27% strike rate over the last month.

Meanwhile Andrea Atzeni is having a very profitable season with his 15% strike rate (73 winners from 489 rides) yielding level stakes profits of 142.5pts, a return over stakes of almost 30% with E/W backers also reaping the rewards with 99pts banked courtesy of a 36.8% strike rate (180 winning E/W bets from those 489 races).

The Atzeni/Cumani combination has two winners and three places from seven this season for profits of 21.3pts with a similar return for E/W punters.

They team up today with Nargys who has admittedly seemed to lose the plot slightly of late, but it is hoped/expected that the drop in class today will help a return to form, something which isn't totally out of the question here.

Luca Cumani is very adept at dropping horses down in class to get instant results with 32 winners from 121 horses dropped in class over the last three seasons.

That 26.45% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 36.4pts (+30.1% ROI) and all 32 winners were priced at 12/1 or under.

In fact, the record with those dropped in class priced at 12/1 or under is 32 winners from 100 with profits of 57.4pts and a 59% place strike rate.

The early markets show an interesting price of 8/1 on offer in places, so the cautious call today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Nargys at 8/1 BOG with Coral. This price is also on offer at Ladbrokes and to see if other firms follow suit, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 9th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th April 2013

Bene Lad was what I think they call 'not off' yesterday, as he was never put in the race and I strongly suspect his handicap mark is being massaged. Definitely one to keep an eye on in his next few runs.

It's Yorkshire this afternoon, and the...

2.10 Pontefract

Dolphin Rock is a very consistent sort, and when you're on the cold list that's exactly what you need to get the motor started again. He's raced nine times on good to soft ground, and been placed on all but two of them. True, he's only won once, and his overall good to soft form string reads 13222663.

His form at this mile trip includes three wins and eleven places from 23 starts, and in today's Class 5 he's 935432113. That seems to be the key to Dolphin Rock: he simply has a class ceiling. And, for a horse which has raced in as high as Class 2 (finishing second) just two seasons ago, and who won last backend, he's in a winnable grade here.

The draw has been kind to him, he's been nibbled at in the market, and if all sixteen run we'll get four places to aim at for today's each way bet, at 15/2 BOG with Stan James.

As ever, be sure to make sure that's still the best price available, and...

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