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Racing Insights, 3rd February 2021

Wednesday's free feature is the Trainer Statistics report, while the free races of the day are...

  • 4.25 Lingfield
  • 5.25 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

I'm going to base today's piece on the 14-day form figures from the Trainer Statistics report to see if I think Mark Loughnane might have another winner (or two) from his two Wednesday runners, seeing as he's in excellent form right now...

Today's runners are both 4 yr old geldings and they go in a Class 6, 1m5f, Polytrack handicap under Luke Morris at Lingfield and in a Class 4, 1m3f, Polytrack handicap under Richard Kingscote at Kempton. Of those 6 wins and 5 places from 21 over the last fortnight...

  • 1 win from 2 at Lingfield and 0 wins, 3 places from 7 at Kempton
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 6 at Class 6 and 1 win from 5 at Class 4
  • 5 wins from 18 in handicaps
  • 3 wins from 16 with males
  • 2 wins from 6 with 4 yr olds
  • 6 wins from 9 at odds of 5/1 and shorter, but 0 from 12 at 11/2 or bigger
  • 2 wins from 4 for Luke Morris and 1 win, 1 place from 3 for Richard Kingscote

Those stats would initially suggest that Mr dib Dab at Lingfield is the better option, but rather than base a decision purely off those numbers, we need to take a closer look at the horses and their individual races, starting with Mr Dib Dab...

Recent form is patchy at best, but Luke Morris is riding well. He will however need to be at his best to get a win out of a horse that has failed to win any of his nine starts to date, making the frame just once (beaten by half a length over 1m3f at Kempton at Class 6 off a mark of 60). He was eleventh of 13 in a handicap at this course (1m2f) 18 days ago off a mark of 58, sent off at 25/1 with cheekpieces on for the first time. The race before that, he finished last of 12 at Wolverhampton off OR60 on Boxing Day, 9 lengths behind the winner Pallas Dancer. Up in trip today and hard to see him being involved.

No win from nine and just one place renders Instant Expert almost redundant, but here's the place aspect of it...

Your first 30 days for just £1

He's drawn in stall five here and that hasn't proved to be best of draws in the last 38 similar contests...

...and his usual mid-division racing style wouldn't suggest much success either...

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And now Precision Storm...

Again, we've got a jockey who has been amongst the winners of late and Richard Kingscote has certainly had a decent last 12 months at Kempton as shown above and he'll fancy adding to that tally on a horse that has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six starts and has 3 wins and 3 places from 10 on the A/W so far.

A winner last time out when pretty much hosing up at Wolverhampton (runner-up was beaten by 3.5 lengths and the third placed horse was 6 lengths behind the winner) over 9.5f. He's up in trip (+1.5f) and weight, but will be expected to go well again despite a 5lb penalty, especially with Richard Kingscote in the saddle, as the pair have finished 1421 together in four A/W outings.

He has a win and a place from three efforts on Standard to Slow going here at Kempton, as identified on Instant Expert...

...and although he's 0 from 6 at Class 4, only two of those runs were on the A/W and he was a runner-up in one of them. He's drawn in stall 7, which would appear to be the right end of the stalls to be in (based on 35 previous 6-8 runner contests here)

...and his usual mid-division positioning will be just fine. If he stepped further forward to be closer to the pace, that would also be fine...

...our pace prediction suggests possible lone speed. The pace in the race actually comes from the runner in stall 6, Charlie Arthur, and that might make Precision Storm run more prominently than mid-division and such a move would in my opinion further enhance his chances here.

Summary

I don't like Mr Dib Dab for his race or generally to be honest. He made the frame four starts ago, but has shown no signs of doing the same since. I'm not saying it can't/won't happen, but you'd need to be a braver man than I am to have a punt even at the 20/1 currently offered by Hills. I don't see him in the top half of the finishers, so it's a no from me. I don't really have much of an opinion about this race otherwise, but Murhib looked interesting at 6/1.

On the other hand, Precision Storm is my "best in race" and the one I see winning, ahead of the likes of the pace angle Charlie Arthur and the horse in stall 1, Toro Dorado. He's a bit on the short side at 5/2 ( with Bet365, as Hills' 3/1 has vanished for now), but I'd probably have backed him at 9/4 or even 2/1. Charlie Arthur is in good form and should be there or thereabouts too, whilst Toro Dorado would be the pick of the longer priced horses at a current 9/1.