Posts

Melbourne Cup Trends

Run each year on the first Tuesday in November (3rd) the Melbourne Cup is dubbed as ‘the race that stops a nation’. Run over 2m it’s the richest handicap run over that distance in the world.

Staged at Flemington racecourse in Melbourne, Australia the race always attracts runners from all corners of the globe, but there are also many key trends and stats to help you find the winner of the 2020 Melbourne Cup.

 

Recent Melbourne Cup Winners

2019 – VOW AND DECLARE (10/1)
2018 –
CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
2017 –
REKINDLING (14/1)
2016 –
ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015 –
PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014 –
PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013 –
FIORENTE (6/1 fav)
2012 – GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011 – DUNADEN (15/2)
2010 – AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009 – SHOCKING (9/1)
2008 – VIEWED (40/1)
2007 – EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006 – DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005 – MAKYBE DIVA (17/5 fav)
2004 – MAKYBE DIVA (13/5 fav)

Key Melbourne Cup Betting Trends and Stats

16/16 – Had won a Group class race before
14/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Raced at either Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (5) last time
14/16 – Won 8 or fewer races before
14/16 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
14/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/16 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Won by a AUS-based horse
10/16 – Aged 5 or older
10/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
10/16 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (7 won there)
10/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
9/16 – Aged 6 or older
8/16 – Won by a 6 year-old
8/16 – Had won over 1m7f or further before
7/16 – Placed favourites
4/16 – Had won just once before
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Had raced in a previous Melbourne Cup
2/16 – French-trained winners
2/16 – English/Irish winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 18/1

 

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

O’Brien out to break Melbourne Cup duck

Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand in the Emirates Melbourne Cup with Anthony Van Dyck and Tiger Moth as he aims to break his duck in the famous race at Flemington in the early hours of Tuesday.

He has had various horses placed in the race, but the closest he has come is 2017 when Johannes Vermeer was beaten half a length by Rekindling, trained by his son Joseph.

While O’Brien has tended to run those guaranteed to stay the trip – his four-time Ascot Gold Cup winner Yeats finished seventh in 2006 – this year he is sending different types.

Anthony Van Dyck came out on top in a blanket finish to win last year’s Derby at Epsom and won his first race since then in September in the Prix Foy, and was then second in the Caulfield Cup, while Tiger Moth has had just four runs in his life but he was second in the Irish Derby in June.

Tiger Moth (14) was just held off by stablemate Santiago in the Irish Derby
Tiger Moth (14) was just held off by stablemate Santiago in the Irish Derby (PA Wire)

“They are two very nice horses we sent this year – a Derby winner and an Irish Derby runner-up,” said O’Brien.

“We were very happy with Anthony Van Dyck’s run in the Caulfield Cup.

“The lads who are over there with him, and Shane who rides him out, are all very happy with him.

“Hugh (Bowman) has sat on him a few times and has been very happy with him.

Your first 30 days for just £1

“Tiger Moth obviously hasn’t run over there but he ran an excellent race in the Irish Derby and won well the race before he left to go to Australia.

“There wasn’t really any other race he could run in, and he was just getting in the Melbourne Cup with a nice weight, so we decided not to run him (beforehand).

“They’ve been very happy since he’s been down there – everything is very good with him, and I suppose there’s just another canter to go. I’m hoping they both run well.”

Because of travel difficulties presented by the pandemic, none of O’Brien’s usual jockeys is making the trip. But he has employed two of the best Australia has ever seen in Bowman, known for his association with Winx, and Kerrin McEvoy, familiar to a British audience thanks to his ties with Godolphin.

“We’ve got one drawn inside (Anthony Van Dyck in three) and one on the outside (Tiger Moth 23) – so who knows, we’ll see how that plays out,” added O’Brien.

“I’ll be speaking to both Hugh and Kerrin before the race, and see what the lads think.

“I’m delighted to have the two of them – they are two great riders with great experience.”

Asked if he has modified his approach to the race this year, he said: “I’m not sure. I’ve obviously never won it, but we’ve taken some very good horses out.

“These are two high-class colts who get a mile and a half well, so we’ll see how they do. It’s always a great race – different this year with no crowd I’m sure, but exciting all the same.”

Charlie Fellowes is becoming something of a celebrity Down Under thanks to the exploits of Prince Of Arran, who has been placed in the race for the past two years.

“I’m gutted that I’m not over there,” he said.

“Melbourne has been a huge part of my life for the last two years.

“I’d give a lot to be there right now, but there are bigger things going on in the world.

“The horse has done it all before – he knows what to expect, and I know everything is being done as if I was there.”

Prince Of Arran is in stall one and will be ridden by Jamie Kah – the same stall from which Prince Of Penzance left, when creating history under Michelle Payne in 2015.

“The more I think about stall one the happier I am,” Fellowes added, on Australian radio station RSN.

“He’s clever, he’s seven – and there’s a reason he’s still at the top of his game, he’s looked after himself by only doing what he has to, so an inside barrier makes life easier.

“When he gets too much daylight that is when he thinks it is job done. If he flops out of the gate we might have a problem, but I’m pretty confident that is not going to happen.

“The last two years, our ‘Derby’ has been the race before the Melbourne Cup – to get into it. This year we’ve known we were going to be in, so I’ve almost been able to take my time and we’ve kept him fresh – knowing the first Tuesday in November is the day that really matters.

“Obviously Michelle Payne won it on Prince Of Penzance from stall one, so we’re hoping Jamie can win from stall one on another Prince. Jamie is on a roll, and everything she sits on she thinks she’s going to win.”

Joseph O’Brien runs Master Of Reality, fourth last year, and Twilight Payment – while Andrew Balding’s Dashing Willoughby and Willie Mullins’ Stratum Albion (known at home as Stratum) complete the British and Irish challenge.

Sir Dragonet, formerly housed at Ballydoyle and winner of the Cox Plate, is the shortest-priced of the home contenders.

Prince Of Arran all set for Melbourne Cup again

Trainer Charlie Fellowes is looking forward to Prince Of Arran trying to improve on his already fine record in the Emirates Melbourne Cup at Flemington next month.

The seven-year-old warmed up for a third crack at the ‘race that stops a nation’ with a solid run in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.

Prince Of Arran stayed on well in the closing stages of the mile-and-a-half feature to be beaten just two lengths in fourth place behind Verry Elleegant.

Fellowes reports the Shirocco gelding has taken the race well, despite suffering a superficial wound, and is on course for Melbourne on November 3.

The Newmarket trainer said: “He’s really good. He’s come through it well – he’s fresh and bouncing and moving well.

“He picked up a little cut on one of his front legs, but that was it. It’s nothing major at all. He seems in good form.

“It’s all systems go for the Melbourne Cup again.”

Prince Of Arran has covered himself in glory in the last two runnings of the two-mile showpiece. He was third in 2018, and was promoted to second from third spot last year.

Prince Of Arran poised for latest Australian adventure

Prince Of Arran is all set for his third attempt to win the Melbourne Cup – and his new big-race jockey should be known this weekend.

Charlie Fellowes confirmed his globetrotting stable star in perfect condition for the start of his latest adventure.

Prince Of Arran, who has been in quarantine in preparation for his 10,000-mile outward journey, will leave in the small hours of Thursday morning.

By the time he is safely settled again down under, the world may well know who is set to take over in the saddle too.

Michael Walker – who rode Prince Of Arran to be third at Flemington two years ago and then second 12 months ago, promoted from third after interference ahead of him – decided two weeks ago to switch to Dashing Willoughby this time.

On Wednesday, Fellowes said: “We are going to announce a jockey at the weekend.

“I can’t say quite now, but I think we’ve made our decision, and the plan is to announce who is going to ride then.”

Dashing Willoughby is Melbourne Cup-bound too
Dashing Willoughby is Melbourne Cup-bound too (Francesca Altoft/PA)

Prince Of Arran completed his British summer with an honourable third behind the brilliant mare Enable in Kempton’s September Stakes three weeks ago, and has since continued preparation in quarantine for his Australian schedule.

There, the seven-year-old will run in the Caulfield Cup on October 17 and then the Melbourne Cup on November 3.

“He’s really well,” added Fellowes.

“He galloped on the Limekilns on Tuesday with (Andrew Balding’s) Dashing Willoughby – they worked over seven furlongs, and they both seemed to be in great order.

“He is pretty much absolutely spot on where I want him – probably about five to 10 kilos heavy at the moment, which is great, and that gives him a bit of room for the trip down.

“Then he’ll do a couple of pieces of work down the other end.

“He’ll run in the Caulfield Cup, and then the Melbourne Cup.”