Wednesday's pick was...
2.40 Haydock : My Valentino @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Slowly away and hampered leaving stalls, held up in rear, ridden over 2f out and made no impression) The less said the better : just poor.
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG
...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
This 6 yr old mare is probably high enough in the weights right now, but that's why we're getting a decent price. Conditions look in her favour and jockey Rhiain Ingram's 5lb claim will hopefully help, as should the jockey/horse familiarity.
We're talking about a horse who has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for 42.07pts (+210.4% ROI) profit at an A/E of 2.93 and from those twenty Flat runs, she has the following records under today's conditions...
- 6/16 (37.5%) for 46.07pts (+287.9%) in races worth less than £3,500
- 6/15 (40%) for 47.07pts (+313.8%) in handicaps
- 6/15 (40%) for 47.07pts (+313.8%) in fields of 7-12 runners
- 6/11 (54.6%) for 51.07pts (+464.3%) on Good to Firm
- 5/11 (45.5%) for 45.54pts (+414%) in a visor
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) for current trainer Paul George
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) in trips longer than 7f
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) over the last two seasons
- 4/10 (40%) for 35.56pts (+355.6%) going left handed
- 4/7 (57.1%) for 42.84pts (+612%) under jockey Rhiain Ingram
- 3/7 (42.9%) for 29.01pts (+414.5%) here at Bath
- and 1 from 2 (50%) for 11.38pts (+568.9%) over course and distance.
As all six wins came from the top four sets of data above, we can combine them to show that she is 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 53.07pts (+589.7%) on Good to Firm ground in 7-12 runner handicaps worth less than £3,500.
And of those 9 runs, she is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 50.54pts (+842.3% ROI) when wearing a visor beyond 7f for Paul George over the last two seasons, including 4/5 under today's jockey, 4/5 going left handed and 2 from 3 here at Bath (runner-up when beaten) with all 3 runs having Rhiain in the saddle.
She's also Paul George's only runner at this track today and of Paul's already decent Flat record of 16 wins from 79 (20.25% SR) for 43.33pts (+54.9% ROI) at odds of 10/1 and shorter (an angle worth noting), when he is represented by a sole handicap runner at a venue he is 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+231% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...
- 7/14 (50%) for 48.9pts (+349.3%) in races worth less than £6k
- 6/15 (40%) for 41.63pts (+277.5%) with female runners
- 6/11 (54.6%) for 48.52pts (+441.1%) at odds of 5/1 to 10/1
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 42.84pts (+475.9%) on Good to Firm
- 4/6 (66.6%) for 33.39pts (+556.5%) here at Bath
- and 3/8 (37.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.8%) for jockey Rhiain Ingram
...whilst females sent off at 5/1 to 10/1 in races worth less than £6k are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 47.25pts (+787.5% ROI) and these include 4 from 5 for today's runner Princess Way, 4 from 4 on Good to Firm ground, 3 from 4 here at Bath and 3 from 4 for today's jockey...
...and when all of the above factors have aligned, Princess Way is 2 from 2 including a win over course and distance...
...leading me to...a 1pt win bet on Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by 888Sport at 8.05am Thursday with Bet365 a full point bigger if you're able to get on, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!