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2019 Punchestown Festival Trends

2019 Punchestown Festival Trends: A massive week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (30th April - 4th May). Plenty of big names on show with a lot of Cheltenham and Aintree Festival winners also in attendance - Like all big race meetings we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….

 

DAY ONE – Tuesday 30th April 2019

 

4.20 - Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

7 of the last 14 runnings went to the favourite
7 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
12 of the last 14 recent winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
7 of the last 14 returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
No British-trained winner for 20 years (17 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only followed-up 3 times
13 of the last 14 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Noel Meade has won the race in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Edward O’Grady has won the race in 2003, 2007 & 2011
Willie Mullins won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017 & 2018
Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 of the last 13 winners
5 of the last 11 ran in that season’s Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle
15 of the last 19 winners came 1st or 2nd last time out

5.30 - Boylesports.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

6 of the last 16 runnings went to the favourite
15 of the last 20 winners came from the first three in the betting
French breds have won 7 of the last 12 runnings
13 of the last 17 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9 of the last 17 had previous won at the track
All of the last 17 winners had won before over 2m
14 of the last 17 came 1st or 2nd last time out
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2008 & 2009
11 of the last 17 were Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 17 were aged 9 or younger
5 of the last 14 finished unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
12 of the last 16 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
6 of the last 16 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010, 2015 & 2018
Un De Sceaux won the race 12 months ago

 

DAY TWO – Wednesday 1st May 2019

6.05 – CORAL Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m1f

Past Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10 fav)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 –CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
12/16 – Irish-trained winners
11/16 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
9/16 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
8/16 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
6/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 6/1
7 of the last 14 favourites have won
Eight of the last 11 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
8 of the last 20 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

6.40 – RACING POST Champion INH Flat Race (Grade 1) (4-7yo) 2m

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3 winning favourites in the last 14 years (1 joint)
13 of the last 15 were aged 5 or older
The Cheltenham Champion Bumper has produced 14 winners since 1992
14 of the last 27 winners finished 6th or better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Cheltenham)
26 of the last 27 winners had raced 2 or more times before
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Not many mares have run in the race, but 4 have won it since 1994
Trainer Noel Meade won the race in 2004, 2006, 2007
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2018
Patrick Mullins rode the winner in 2008, 2011, 2012 & 2015
The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings

 

DAY THREE – Thursday 2nd May 2019

4.50 – Mogey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (5yo+) 4m1f

6 winning favourites in the last 13 years (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 13 of the last 20 runnings
10 of the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 13 carried 12-2 or more
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or older
5 of the last 13 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
20 of the last 24 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
10 of the last 13 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race

 

5.30 - Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 3m

Past Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle Winners

2018 – FAUGHEEN (11/2)
2017 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (4/1)
2016 – ONE TRACK MIND (10/1)
2015 – JEZKI (5/2)
2014 – JETSON (20/1)
2013 – QUEVEGA (6/4 fav)
2012 – QUEVEGA (11/10 fav)
2011 – QUEVEGA (8/11 fav)
2010 – QUEVEGA (5/2 fav)
2009 – FIVEFORTHREE (5/4 fav)
2008 – BLAZING BAILEY (10/3 fav)
2007 – REFINEMENT (16/1)
2006 – ASAIN MAZE (8/13 fav)
2005 – CARLYS QUEST (25/1)
2004 – RHINESTONE COWBOY (5/2)
2003 – HOLY ORDERS (6/1)

Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle Betting Trends

14/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival earlier that season
13/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Aged 8 or younger
10/16 – Irish trained winners
9/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
7/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
6/16 – Ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
5/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
5/16 – Ran in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle last time out
Only one Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 19 runnings
14 of the last 16 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The market leader has won 9 of the last 18 runnings
11 of the last 18 winners won their previous race
10 of the 22 runnings have been won by a British-trained horse
7 of the last 15 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time out
10 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+ before

 

6.40 - Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

6 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings
12 of the last 13 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or older (only 5 of the last 22 aged 6 or younger)
8 of the last 13 were aged either 7 or 8 years-old
21 of the last 23 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
8 of the last 13 winners ran in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that same season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 10 times they have had runners
14 of the last 15 winners had run at least 4 times over fences previously
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018

 

DAY FOUR – Friday 3rd May 2019

5.30 – BETDAQ PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

7 of the last 14 favourites (1 joint) have won
7 of the last 12 winners won last time out
11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
12 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or older
11 of the last 20 winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
The current Champion Hurdler is yet to finish out of the top two when running
11 of the last 14 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 & 2017
6 of the last 8 winners returned odds-on in the betting
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 & 2016
13 of the last 14 winners were Irish-trained

6.05 – TATTERSALLS IRELAND CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m4f

9 of the last 14 favourites have won
8 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 years-old
12 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins has won 9 of the last 17 runnings
13 of the last 18 winners won last time out
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old

 

DAY FIVE – Saturday 4th May 2019

4.25 – AES CHAMPION FOUR YEAR-OLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

5 winning favourites in the last 14 runnings
13 of the last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Ruby Walsh has ridden 3 of the last 6 winners
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018
12 of the last 13 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
6 of the last 11 winners ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
9 of the last 21 runnings went to a British-trained horse
Owner Rich Ricci has won the last two runnings

 

 

 

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