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Stat of the Day, 9th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.40 Newbury : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased winner 2f, chased leaders, went 2nd again over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, straight to the racecard...

A 3yr old gelding who comes here off the back of two good runs at Leicester already since the restart and was only beaten by an in-form filly (Rosa Gold, who has won comfortably again since) last time out nine days ago with the rest of the field over 4 lengths further back.

This contest looks marginally easier than that contest and takes place on a track where her trainer has a good record. That is documented clearly by the C1 & C5 icons above, the former of which is also shown in the report underneath the card, so lat's take a look at my "Chep Flat" angle in more detail...

The angle is essentially a group of seven trainers that I keep an eye out for here at Chepstow and Mick Channon makes the list, because since the start of 2017 campaign, his handicappers are...

from which those 48 are...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 52.91pts (+117.6%) in contests worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 38.91pts (+99.8%) at 6-25 days since last run
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.4pts (+40%) at an ISP below 5/1
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 16.2pts (+60%) as 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 41.56pts (+173.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/10 (60%) for 19.48pts (+194.8%) in July
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.12pts (+53.3%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.17pts (+84.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 3/11 (29.3%) for 15.79pts (+143.5%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs

...whilst those sent off shorter than 5/1 aiming for a prize of less than £4k just 6-25 days after they last ran are...

...and they include a winner (Queen of Silca) from the last horse to qualify for that angle, which was just six days ago and was also ridden by today's jockey, George Bass claiming 7lbs...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Thursday (although Bet365 were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!