Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 2.00 Lingfield
- 2.10 Newton Abbot
- 2.25 York
- 6.15 Newcastle
- 7.15 Newcastle
- 7.55 Leopardstown
...from which, we'll head (as we tend to on a Thursday) for the Racing League and Race 32, the 7.15 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed trip just shy of 1m4½f on standard to slow tapeta...
Lexington Knight won last time out and has won two of his last five, Night breeze has won each of his last three and Tafsir won last time out too for a third win in six outings and an eighth successive top-3 finish.
Corsican Caper has also won three of his last six and most of the field have at least one win in their recent form line, but Who's Glen is a three-race maiden whilst John Chard VC is winless in seven races/two years and now makes an A/W debut. Who's Glen has, however, made the frame in each of his three outings to date.
Plenty of these are moving class today, but only Kamboo drops down a level for his second run in a handicap. Matchless, Lexington Knight, Dark Jedi, John Chard VC and Percy Jones all step up one class; Who's Glen makes a handicap debut and Corsican Caper makes a yard debut as both step up two classes with in-form Tafsir stepping up three levels here, which could be tough.
Top weight True Courage did run at this grade last time out, but after three indifferent efforts is now fitted with blinkers for the first time. Kamboo is the highest-rated runner in the race off a mark of 87 (2lbd higher than True Courage), but as one of two 3yr olds in the race (along with handicap debutant Who's Glen) in the race, benefits from a very handy 9lbs weight allowance today.
Most of this field have had at least one outing in the last four weeks, but Percy Jones, Kamboo and Corsican Caper return from short breaks of 54, 63 and 77 days respectively, whilst Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week layoff since a 51 length defeat over hurdles at Fontwell. In fact, his last six outings have all been over hurdles and hasn't raced on level ground since finishing fourth of seven, beaten by sixteen lengths over 1m4f at Catterick ten months ago.
Matchless is one for four runners here (Kamboo, John Chard VC and Who's Glen being the others) yet to win over a similar trip to this one. Four other runners have also won here at Newcastle in the past with True Courage, La Pulga and Lexington Knight all former course and distance winners, whilst Furzig won here over 1m2f way back in July 2019, but that would even register on the five-year form on Instant Expert, never mind this two-year overview...
...where True Courage is probably the main standout runner. Corsican Caper, Furzig, Night Breeze and Lexington Knight have multiple wins at this trip, but Dark Jedi and La Pulga have really struggled to win, whilst Percy Jones hasn't fared that much better. Tafsir and Furzig are a combined 0 from 14 here at Newcastle over the last two years, whilst Matchless, Furzig and La Pulga are a combined 1 from 27 at Class 3! It's probably safe to assume that I'll not be backing Tafsir, Matchless, Dark Jedi, Furzig, La Pulza or Percy Jones to win here, but half of that group remain in contention for the places so far, now that I've seen this...
They're still not high up in my thoughts, of course, but they are still part of this group I'm now focusing on...
..as we now check whether any might be aided or hindered by the draw. Before I look at the draw stats, I'd say that I'd be surprised in stall position made or broke a horse's chances of winning when there's over a mile and a half to run after the gates open, but I'd better check the stats anyway, because we know that data doesn't lie!
And that data would actually suggest that those drawn highest have fared best of all. from a win perspective, stalls 4, 5, 6 and 10+ have had the best win percentages, but we're not talking huge margins here...
...although it is technically good news for Matchless, True Courage, Night Breeze, Lexington Knight and La Pulga. Sadly, if we thought that the draw data was particularly helpful, the pace stats are even less useful today, I'm afraid, with no real clear pattern...
..and this is reflected in the pace/draw heat map...
So, when this happens, I tend to go back to the racecard and Instant Expert to help guide me.
Summary
It's not an exact science, but if I refer to Instant Expert and the place data and focus upon those with three blocks of green, I'm suddenly only looking at four runners...
...and all four fit the slight draw bias we mentioned earlier.
Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week break from racing and tackling a first non-NH race in ten months might test his fitness. It's also almost sixteen months since he last won on the level and he has yet to make the frame in seven A/W starts, so that's an easy decision to drop him from my list of possibles.
This leaves me with a trio in racecard order of True Courage, Lexington Knight and Night Breeze and I think true Courage is definitely the weaker of the three. I don't however see much between Lexington Knight and Night Breeze, but if pushed to stick my neck out, I'd probably go with Night Breeze who rarely runs a bad race.
A market check at 5.15pm Wednesday showed this...
...and with bookies paying four places, Lexington Knight and True Courage both fall into what I'd class as being "E/W backable"