Tag Archive for: Racing League

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/08/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.55 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 5.05 Navan
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 7.12 Southwell

...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...

...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.

Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.

The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...

Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...

It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.

It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...

...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...

...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...

...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.

Summary

Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.

Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.

A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...

...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/08/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Newton Abbot
  • 2.25 York
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle
  • 7.55 Leopardstown

...from which, we'll head (as we tend to on a Thursday) for the Racing League and Race 32, the 7.15 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed trip just shy of 1m4½f on standard to slow tapeta...

Lexington Knight won last time out and has won two of his last five, Night breeze has won each of his last three and Tafsir won last time out too for a third win in six outings and an eighth successive top-3 finish.

Corsican Caper has also won three of his last six and most of the field have at least one win in their recent form line, but Who's Glen is a three-race maiden whilst John Chard VC is winless in seven races/two years and now makes an A/W debut. Who's Glen has, however, made the frame in each of his three outings to date.

Plenty of these are moving class today, but only Kamboo drops down a level for his second run in a handicap. Matchless, Lexington Knight, Dark Jedi, John Chard VC and Percy Jones all step up one class; Who's Glen makes a handicap debut and Corsican Caper makes a yard debut as both step up two classes with in-form Tafsir stepping up three levels here, which could be tough.

Top weight True Courage did run at this grade last time out, but after three indifferent efforts is now fitted with blinkers for the first time. Kamboo is the highest-rated runner in the race off a mark of 87 (2lbd higher than True Courage), but as one of two 3yr olds in the race (along with handicap debutant Who's Glen) in the race, benefits from a very handy 9lbs weight allowance today.

Most of this field have had at least one outing in the last four weeks, but Percy Jones, Kamboo and Corsican Caper return from short breaks of 54, 63 and 77 days respectively, whilst Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week layoff since a 51 length defeat over hurdles at Fontwell. In fact, his last six outings have all been over hurdles and hasn't raced on level ground since finishing fourth of seven, beaten by sixteen lengths over 1m4f at Catterick ten months ago.

Matchless is one for four runners here (Kamboo, John Chard VC and Who's Glen being the others) yet to win over a similar trip to this one. Four other runners have also won here at Newcastle in the past with True Courage, La Pulga and Lexington Knight all former course and distance winners, whilst Furzig won here over 1m2f way back in July 2019, but that would even register on the five-year form on Instant Expert, never mind this two-year overview...

...where True Courage is probably the main standout runner. Corsican Caper, Furzig, Night Breeze and Lexington Knight have multiple wins at this trip, but Dark Jedi and La Pulga have really struggled to win, whilst Percy Jones hasn't fared that much better. Tafsir and Furzig are a combined 0 from 14 here at Newcastle over the last two years, whilst Matchless, Furzig and La Pulga are a combined 1 from 27 at Class 3! It's probably safe to assume that I'll not be backing Tafsir, Matchless, Dark Jedi, Furzig, La Pulza or Percy Jones to win here, but half of that group remain in contention for the places so far, now that I've seen this...

They're still not high up in my thoughts, of course, but they are still part of this group I'm now focusing on...

..as we now check whether any might be aided or hindered by the draw. Before I look at the draw stats, I'd say that I'd be surprised in stall position made or broke a horse's chances of winning when there's over a mile and a half to run after the gates open, but I'd better check the stats anyway, because we know that data doesn't lie!

And that data would actually suggest that those drawn highest have fared best of all. from a win perspective, stalls 4, 5, 6 and 10+ have had the best win percentages, but we're not talking huge margins here...

...although it is technically good news for Matchless, True Courage, Night Breeze, Lexington Knight and La Pulga. Sadly, if we thought that the draw data was particularly helpful, the pace stats are even less useful today, I'm afraid, with no real clear pattern...

..and this is reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, when this happens, I tend to go back to the racecard and Instant Expert to help guide me.

Summary

It's not an exact science, but if I refer to Instant Expert and the place data and focus upon those with three blocks of green, I'm suddenly only looking at four runners...

...and all four fit the slight draw bias we mentioned earlier.

Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week break from racing and tackling a first non-NH race in ten months might test his fitness. It's also almost sixteen months since he last won on the level and he has yet to make the frame in seven A/W starts, so that's an easy decision to drop him from my list of possibles.

This leaves me with a trio in racecard order of True Courage, Lexington Knight and Night Breeze and I think true Courage is definitely the weaker of the three. I don't however see much between Lexington Knight and Night Breeze, but if pushed to stick my neck out, I'd probably go with Night Breeze who rarely runs a bad race.

A market check at 5.15pm Wednesday showed this...

...and with bookies paying four places, Lexington Knight and True Courage both fall into what I'd class as being "E/W backable"

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Salisbury
  • 5.35 Carlisle
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton
  • 5.55 Clonmel
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

 

Monday Musings: Of Shergar, Disappearance and Team Games

They say you learn from your mistakes, writes Tony Stafford. If that is so, how come I managed to lose a mobile phone ten yards from the place in Ascot’s number two car park on Saturday, going home after a low-key Shergar Cup, where I mislaid the last one, never to re-surface?

The process was identical. Speak to a friend between the track and the car park; close the phone, open the car and rest the device on top while the luggage (straw hat and Racing Post) is placed inside. Drive off.

Last time I got to Legoland before I realised my missing means of communication. This time I was past Slough and closing on the roundabout leading to Pinewood Studios before I twigged. All the James Bond films were part-produced there. Wonder what he would have done?

Back to Ascot, scrabble about in vain on the grass-denuded ground – I’ve never seen that car park so sparsely-occupied or less strictly monitored - and leave details at the track’s Reception with two very helpful ladies.

Sunday was devoted to buying a sim card, some call minutes and trying to figure out vital numbers. In my prime I knew every number – as I did every horse in training, honest! My knowledge of the latter is much diminished, maybe partly as there are so many more races and meetings nowadays. As remembering phone numbers is no longer needed with lists to speed dial from, hardly half a dozen of the 150 or so that resided in Saturday’s lost soul are securely known. Honestly!

August was always reckoned to be the silly season in the newspaper business. There was even an Ian Balding horse called Silly Season in the mid- and late-1960’s who won plenty of races and was a great favourite with racegoers, including me.

August 2022 will take some beating for silliness. We’ve had no rain, heatwaves, inflation, war, strikes, disgraced politicians and the prospect of massive mortgage rate hikes and crashing property values. It’s mad and almost unrecognisable from even a year ago when we were still entrenched and totally pre-occupied with Covid.

It’s still there, but like Ukraine we’ve become all Covid-ed and Ukraine-d out with everything else we have to contend with.

What’s all that got to do with racing you ask? Well that also seems to get sillier by the week. The Shergar Cup was a great innovation two decades ago, but this latest episode suggested to me that it has played itself out. Frankie Dettori still turned up, but the team idea, once earth-breaking, now seems contrived.

Prize money was lavish, of course, but that doesn’t guarantee much of a response, so much so that having been scheduled for 12 runners each race, Ascot and the BHA decided to cut it to ten, with the fear of some teams having less than equal opportunities.

One race did indeed have only eight acceptors – and one of those came out on the day too – but the horse I was there to see on behalf of its owners, was number 11 and of course, he stayed in his box. Nothing came out of his race, but he had to travel from HQ in case one did. Hopefully he’ll make the cut at York.

Two other relatively new additions to the Racing Calendar are in the process of their second year of activity. Last Thursday, the first of six late afternoon/early evening fixtures comprising the Racing League was staged at Doncaster. Seven races, each worth a total value of £50k, all handicaps and mostly 0-90, but occasionally 0-85, attracted decent fields.

Teams of trainers and jockeys representing six regions in the UK, as well as one under the Ireland banner, take part. All six races are staged on Arena racecourses, with Lingfield this week and Newcastle (two), Windsor and Southwell to follow, concluding under lights at Newcastle on September 15. All are shown on Sky Sports Racing.

Meanwhile the second big idea, the Sunday Series, will come to its conclusion, with its sixth edition also, at Sandown on August 21st.  Once again this caters for an almost identical portion of the horse population, in this case mainly 0-85, but with the odd 0-90 and at Sandown a 0-95. There is a single maiden race on the Sandown schedule of seven races, but with a much-reduced prize. Yesterday’s fifth chapter was at Haydock, all six staged at non-Arena tracks and shown on Racing UK.

Where there is a reported £2 million to share out with the Racing League, that drops to more like £1.4 million for the Sunday Series, with its usual first prize being £15k rising to £18k at Sandown. While any stable can have Sunday Series runners, trainers and the horses they regard as suitable for the races have had to be registered for the Racing League.

It seems silly – that word again – that the East of England team in the Racing League extends to as far as 32 yards mostly in Newmarket with many of the very top involved. As each team can have only two representatives in each race, ridden by their nominated riders, even those Newmarket or rather the East, handlers might find it tough to get a runner.

They are at the foot of the table after the first day when London and the South are leading. Time was when Andrew Reid, in Mill Hill, was the only trainer with a London post code. He’s no longer in operation sadly.

The awful thing, for all the energy of the people that run the events, is that my reaction as a reformed punter is “so what?”  Racegoers can hardly be expected to adhere to any team for all Matt Chapman’s conviction. They want to back winners!

Owners lucky enough to get a horse in one of the three out-of-the-norm events can be rewarded by much better money than for normal races in those handicap categories. But it is far from easy for ordinary horses to get a run and even when they do, even tougher to win one.

To cater for the Racing League, races have had to be taken away from existing programming, thus limiting opportunities for stables that have not been registered. I have been told that notification of when that registration could and should be made had not been easy to find on the BHA site, or timely so for that matter.

The Shergar Cup started at around the time that Peter Savill was the boss of the BHB, the regulator's previous guise. Now Savill has intervened in the debate on whether the number of races and fixtures should be reduced. A figure of 300 - William Haggas among other top trainers likes that number – seems the starting point, but at a time when the BHA seems less able to control either fixtures or the individual races in them, with the tracks calling the tune, it will be an uphill battle.

Racecourses, in these times of falling attendances, are aggressively opposed to any reduction as their media rights return is based on the number of races staged. Arena is one grouping apparently implacable in resisting any cutbacks, but the trainers want fewer races, with the available money to be shared out to bolster the races and cards that remain.

One Racing League trainer, Joseph Tuite, listed in the Wales and the West team, will not be participating.  The Lambourn handler had a complement of 25 in the 2022 edition of Horses in Training but when last week he announced he would be closing his stable, he was down to a bare nine or ten.

His plight reinforced my conclusion that the biggest stables simply get bigger and more powerful. The handicap system plays to their advantage as they monopolise the 0-90 categories. Their best horses can be left to the Stakes races. Those lower down the scale get workable marks after their qualifying runs and can exploit the system to the detriment of the smaller stables – and that’s the 50-80 strong yards, not just those like Tuite’s.

With three wins in the Shergar Cup on Saturday, one 0-90 Classified and two handicaps, William Haggas is the ideal trainer to illustrate the point. So skilful has he been in playing the system, he is the acknowledged master of producing winners of valuable handicaps, often running up multiple sequences.

With 12 wins from his 46 runners over the past fortnight, he had an astonishing 27 (around 60%) of them starting favourite. He is most unlikely to catch Charlie Appleby as he goes unchallenged at the top of the trainers’ table. But, with his yard so stocked with lightly-raced, progressive handicappers, he has clearly supplanted the Gosden yard as the most feared challenger for the biggest handicap prizes in the programme. For a start, what’s he got in the Ebor?

- TS