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Sat TV Trends: 2nd March 2013

Newbury

A Decent Card A Newbury.......

Some decent action this week as the C4 cameras head to Newbury and Doncaster - Andy Newton's got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 2nd Feb 2013

SandownSandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby provide the LIVE C4 action this Saturday – Andy Newton’s got all the races covered from a trends angle..... Read more

Racing Trends: Day 13 Update / Final Review (Recommended)

Racing Trends - Day 13 Update 24th June 2009

Comments

The “Draw” section was pretty much spot on with respect to the Kempton 7.50 where the highest drawn (11) (Midnight Fantasy – Won 5/2F), draw 8 Beautiful Filly – 2nd 17/2, draw 9 Dualagi – 3rd 8/1 whilst draw 10 Nobilissima was 7th 10/1. The “Positive Stats” section identified 8 runners which yielded 1 winner (April Fool – Won 9/4JF. The single entry (Rezwaan) in the “Negative Stats” section was well beaten. Finally, the “Pace Section” was spot on with respect to the Carlisle 5.15 with the two identified pace horses filling the first two places - Sir Nod (Won 8/1) and Foxy Music (2nd 10/1)

Final Review

First some key points on what the Racing Trends service is and is not:

1) Racing Trends is not a pure tipping service and there is no suggestion that all horses noted should be backed

2) The aim of the service is to try to boil down all the possible stats available on a days racing to a reasonably compact summary focusing on only key stats that have demonstrated consistency of long term profits over many years

3) A lot of the information highlighted in Racing Trends is unique. The aim being to provide you with an edge to your betting by giving you well researched past profitable angles not found elsewhere.

4) Racing Trends is a tool to help you make your own educated betting or laying decisions. The best way to use Racing Trends does depend a bit on you as an individual. The basic principle is for it to be the place where you get the best statistical information for the day's racing.

The Racing Trends information comprises a number of sections some of which only appear on an occasional basis. So, how has this service performed during our trial period?

Value Horses (occasional feature)

This section only appeared twice during the trial period however, on both occasions the identified Value Horses both won.

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Draw Section (regular feature)

This section usually contains qualifying races with demonstrable draw biases; additionally, the favourably-drawn horses (usually 4) are also identified by name. When the draw bias works as identified, the first three home are often in the list of named horses. However, there have been occasions when the opposite of the expected draw bias has occurred.

Market Information (regular feature)

During the trial period the results were more ‘miss’ than ‘hit’ though I wouldn’t necessarily let this put you off. This was a short trial period so performance is probably best judged over a longer period.

Positive Stats –Trainer/Sire/Draw (regular feature)

This section contains a mixture of trainer/race type/age/distance, trainer/jockey combinations and Sire statistics for a selection of named horses some of which are competing in the same race. Some of these stats also have price and/or going dependencies which should be taken into consideration. Personally I found the Sire Stats to be the ones that confounded the most. For example, progeny of the Sire Pivotal were often identified in this section and one of the key dependencies for these horses is supposed to be soft or heavy going. Well, we haven’t had much of this recently yet on a number of occasions these identified horses were winning, often at very good prices, on supposedly unsuitable going such as Good-Firm and Firm.

Negative Trainer Stats (occasional feature)

These stats were generally consistent and successful providing useful information on those horses to avoid or Lay.

Negative Stats – Poor Value Last Time Out Winners (occasional feature)

Again, generally consistent and successful, providing useful information on those horses to avoid or Lay.

Course Trainer Stats (regular feature)

These provide Tables of trainer performance (Wins/Runs/Strike Rate %/Profit and ROI%) for all race types for each of the day’s courses.

Current Trainer Form (regular feature)

This uses the 5 year strike rate as a comparison lists current trainer form (Wins/Runs/Strike Rate %/5 Year Strike Rate %) for the last 7 and 14 days.

Pace Information (regular feature)

Probably best for 'in running' punters at present, although if the front runner at certain courses can be found then they do become solid bets.

Horses Noted in Two Different Sections (regular feature)

These horses obviously have two different stats which should enhance confidence assuming any identified dependencies are met.

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Summary

The cost of this service is £29.99 per month or £199 for the full year. The service also comes with a 30 day no quibble refund guarantee which would effectively give you the first month of service free of charge whether or not you were actually dissatisfied. Probably not a service for those who are looking for tips but certainly a service for those who are looking for an ‘edge’ which will either rule in or rule out runners in certain races.

Clearly there are times when the trends are undone e.g. poor draw or running in an inappropriate class of race. However, those points not withstanding, it is certainly a service I would recommend to any discerning student of form. Don’t forget, with the “no quibble refund guarantee”, you can effectively get the first month of service free of charge.

Get a 30 day free trial of Racing Trends from here:

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/geegeez.php

Racing Trends: Day 12 Update / Day 13 Information (final day)

Racing Trends - Day 12 Update 23rd June 2009

Comments

The “Draw” section was pretty much spot on with respect to the Beverley 5.45 where draw 13 (Foreign Rythmn – Won 10/1), draw 15 Unbelievable Jeff – 2nd 2/1F and draw 14 Lithaam – 3rd 7/1 being separated by 2 heads. The “Positive Stats” section identified 7 runners which yielded 2 winners (Rock Of Love – Won 11/10F) and (Lady Artemisia – Won 5/2). The single entry (Malapropism) in the “Negative Stats” section was well beaten.

Day 13 Information – 24th June 2009

Note that this is the final day of the trial. You can get a further 30 days access to this bumper stat pack from the link below:

Get a 30 day free trial of Racing Trends from here:

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/geegeez.php

Draw Section

Kempton 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2006 to 2009):

Bottom third of the draw 27.7%

Middle third of the draw 25.4%

Top third of the draw 46.9%

7.50 Kempton is a qualifying race.

Conclusion -the top third of the draw have a definite edge.

Well drawn horses – Midnight Fantasy (drawn 11), Nobilissima (drawn 10), Dualagi (drawn 9) and Beautiful Filly (drawn 8)

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2:10 Salisbury Filwa Sire Stats - Invincible Spirit - 2yo turf non handicaps over 5f SR 18% ROI +13%

3:35 Carlisle Paraguay* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3:50 Salisbury Battle Planner M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f+ in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5:15 Carlisle Grudge D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

7:10 Bath Midnight Bay M Channon 3yo only sellers SR 22%; ROI +13.5%

7:20 Kempton Pastel Blue M Bell 2yo maidens - 2nd career start; finished 2nd to 5th LTO on debut SR 33% ROI +42%

7:40 Bath April Fool Pivotal Sire System 8f or less; 5yo or younger; top 3 speed figure SR 20% ROI +32%

7:40 Bath April Fool* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%)

9:10 Bath Tadlil* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Negative Trainer Stats

6:50 Kempton Rezwaan E Dunlop - poor stat - 2yo males over 7f+ on debut SR 3% ROI loss -75.4%

Course Trainer Stats – please note that I have updated the trainer course stats and have decided to cover 2005 to the latest meeting in 2009. I am including all trainers that have had at least 4 wins – hence good, poor and moderate course trainers are now shown:

Salisbury trainer stats ALL RACES 2005-2009 (ordered by strike rate – 4 or more wins)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

S Bin Suroor

10

32

31.3

+£3.14

+9.8

Mrs S Liddiard

5

16

31.3

+£28.00

+175.0

Sir M Stoute

14

51

27.5

+£17.62

+34.6

T Dascombe

4

18

22.2

+£9.82

+54.6

L Cumani

7

34

20.6

-£4.00

-11.8

R Charlton

9

52

17.3

-£14.30

-27.5

J Gosden

9

54

16.7

+£6.40

+11.9

B Hills

9

55

16.4

-£7.75

-14.1

D Elsworth

19

119

16.0

-£27.52

-23.1

H Morrison

16

105

15.2

+£25.1

+23.9

H Candy

7

50

14.0

+£5.83

+11.7

A King

5

36

13.9

-£10.00

-27.8

R Beckett

14

104

13.5

-£17.75

-17.1

R Harris

7

53

13.2

-£2.63

-5.0

C Cox

6

46

13.0

-£5.17

-11.2

B Meehan

7

54

13.0

-£17.50

-32.4

R Hannon

44

341

12.9

-£60.71

-17.8

W Swinburn

6

48

12.5

-£13.45

-28.0

M Tregoning

5

47

10.6

+£20.25

+43.1

S Kirk

9

90

10.0

-£13.67

-15.2

A Balding

11

112

9.8

-£23.92

-21.4

Mrs A Perrett

9

92

9.8

-£18.63

-20.2

Mrs P Dutfield

6

63

9.5

+£11.5

+18.3

W Muir

4

45

8.9

-£16.25

-36.1

J Hills

5

62

8.1

-£24.75

-39.9

Your first 30 days for just £1

P Cole

4

52

7.7

-£28.27

-54.4

M  Channon

11

150

7.3

-£50.73

-33.8

J Dunlop

8

117

6.8

-£27.13

-23.2

M Blanshard

4

62

6.5

+£1.00

+1.6

J Bradley

4

72

5.6

-£28.00

-38.9

B Millman

7

129

5.4

-£66.67

-51.7

Current Trainer Form – with the 5 year strike rate as comparison

Last 7 Days (3 or more wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

5 year Strike rate (%)

J Gask

3

8

37.5

7.4

Tom Dascombe

3

10

30

18.2

S Callaghan

3

11

27.3

12.9

J Noseda

4

17

23.5

19.5

M Johnston

12

56

21.4

16

M Bell

3

14

21.4

13.2

I Semple

3

14

21.4

11.5

J Quinn

4

19

21.1

8.9

R Hannon

8

40

20

11.8

B Hills

4

20

20

13.7

B Millman

3

15

20

8.5

D Simcock

3

15

20

10.6

R Fahey

6

31

19.4

10.9

P Midgley

3

19

15.8

6.2

K Ryan

4

27

14.8

12

J Gosden

3

27

11.1

18.3

S Bin Suroor

3

28

10.7

23.1

M Channon

4

46

8.7

10.9


Last 14 days (3 or more wins)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

5 year Strike rate (%)

R Curtis

3

7

42.9

5.3

A King

3

9

33.3

10.4

J Noseda

9

32

28.1

19.5

H Morrison

8

31

25.8

12.6

J Gask

3

12

25

7.4

M Bell

5

23

21.7

13.2

D Simcock

5

24

20.8

10.6

Sir M Stoute

6

29

20.7

21.8

M Johnston

18

90

20

16

S Callaghan

3

15

20

12.9

R Fahey

15

76

19.7

10.9

R Hannon

14

81

17.3

11.8

B Millman

4

24

16.7

8.5

R Hollinshead

3

18

16.7

7.3

J Quinn

5

31

16.1

8.9

T Tate

3

19

15.8

12.1

S Bin Suroor

5

35

14.3

23.1

Tom Dascombe

3

21

14.3

18.2

I Semple

3

21

14.3

11.5

W Haggas

5

36

13.9

16.8

K Ryan

6

45

13.3

12

E Dunlop

4

31

12.9

11.5

G Swinbank

4

31

12.9

12.8

J Goldie

4

33

12.1

8.2

J Dunlop

3

25

12

12.4

J Given

3

25

12

8.8

K R Burke

5

42

11.9

10.5

W Brisbourne

3

26

11.5

7.7

B Hills

4

36

11.1

13.7

G L Moore

3

27

11.1

11.6

M Dods

4

37

10.8

10.1

D Nicholls

5

50

10

9.8

R Beckett

3

30

10

10.9

M Channon

8

82

9.8

10.9

B Meehan

4

43

9.3

11.2

P Midgley

3

34

8.8

6.2

P Cole

3

37

8.1

11.9

P Evans

4

50

8

8.6

A Balding

3

41

7.3

10.3

J Gosden

3

47

6.4

18.3

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Leaders 2.75

Prominent / chased leaders 1.0

Hold up / behind 0.5

Front runners have a decent edge and either Sir Nod or Foxy Music should lead. Sir Nod has arguably the better draw for leading, but both could be value from a pace perspective.


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Racing Trends: Day 11 Update / Day 12 Information

Racing Trends - Day 11 Update 22nd June 2009

Comments

The “Value Horse” did the business but at a ‘skinny price’ (Aureate – Won 8/13F). The “Positive Stats” section identified 9 runners which yielded 2 nice winners (Love In The Park – Won 3/1F) and (Solemn – Won 12/1). The “Negative Stats” section turned up trumps again with all negative horses being well beaten.

Day 12 Information – 23rd June 2009

Draw Section

Beverley 5f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 13.8%

Middle third of the draw 34.5%

Top third of the draw 51.7%

5.45 Beverley is a qualifying race -the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw. The general perception is that the bias is not as strong as it was a few years ago, and although this is probably the case, it is still one of the most potent biases in the country.

Best drawn horses - Rio Pomba (drawn 16), Unbelievable Jeff (drawn 15), Lithaam (drawn 14) Foreign Rhythm (drawn 13) and Future Gem (drawn 12)

Beverley 7f 100yds - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 19.4%

Middle third of the draw 36.1%

Top third of the draw 44.4%

3.15 Beverley is a qualifying race - In general therefore horses from the top third have a slight edge, while low draws do struggle.

Newbury 5f - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 36.4%

Middle third of the draw 27.3%

Top third of the draw 36.4%

9.00 Newbury is a qualifying race - A very even playing field so if you fancy any horse the draw will not be a problem.

Brighton 5f - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 26.9%

Middle third of the draw 42.3%

Top third of the draw 30.8%

5.30 Brighton is a qualifying race - The perceived low draw bias is not evident in the stats. Indeed the lowest draws have had the worst win record in the past four seasons.

Market Information (2000 - 2008)

Positive Market Stats if They Start Favourite

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

As usual I have decided to list the races where the above stat qualifies – then if any of those races the favourite is in the top four of the weights then he/she would qualify. The 2.45 Beverley and 5.00 Brighton are identified as qualifying races.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2:15 Beverley Rock Of Love** M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

2:45 Beverley Monroe Gold * Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3:15 Beverley Cross of Lorraine* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3:45 Beverley Smarterthanuthink** R Fahey - Beverley handicaps top 2 in the betting SR 35% ROI +51%

4:15 Beverley Bo McGinty** R Fahey - Beverley handicaps top 2 in the betting SR 35% ROI +51%

7:55 Newbury Lady Artemisia Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

9:00 Newbury Requisite* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Negative Trainer Stats

5:30 Brighton Malapropism Poor Trainer Stat - M Channon in handicaps at Brighton SR 4.4% ROI -58.6%

Current Trainer Form

Last 7 days (3 or more wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Gask

3

7

Your first 30 days for just £1

42.9%

R Hannon

11

35

31.4%

R Hollinshead

3

10

30%

J Noseda

5

17

29.4%

M Johnston

12

56

21.4%

D Simcock

3

14

21.4%

J Quinn

4

19

21.1%

M Bell

3

15

20%

B Hills

3

15

20%

I Semple

3

16

18.8%

R Fahey

7

40

17.5%

P Midgley

3

20

15%

Last 14 days (4 or more wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Noseda

9

30

30%

H Morrison

7

28

25%

D Simcock

5

23

21.7%

M Bell

5

24

20.8%

Sir M Stoute

6

29

20.7%

R Fahey

16

78

20.5%

M Johnston

18

90

20%

R Hannon

14

75

18.7%

J Quinn

6

33

18.2%

E Dunlop

5

31

16.1%

S Bin Suroor

5

35

14.3%

W Haggas

5

36

13.9%

B Meehan

6

45

13.3%

J Goldie

4

33

12.1%

G Swinbank

4

34

11.8%

K R Burke

5

43

11.6%

K Ryan

5

43

11.6%

D Nicholls

5

48

10.4%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Beverley 5f

Leaders 3.25

Prominent / chased leaders 1.1

Hold up / behind 0.55

There is no genuine front runner in the field, but four horses drawn 9 or higher could lead (or least have led in at least one of their last four starts). This looks an “in running” play getting on quickly whoever gets to the rail and leads.

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Racing Trends: Day 10 Update / Day 11 Information

Racing Trends - Day 10 Update 21st June 2009

Comments

On a very ‘thin’ day for Flat racing with only one meeting, the “Positive Stats” section identified 3 runners which yielded 1 non-runner and 1 winner (Shemoli – Won 7/4). The “Negative Stats” section identified 2 runners which yielded 1 non-runner with the remaining selection (Full Speed) being well beaten.

Day 11 Information – 22nd June 2009

Value Horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term. Qualifying horse - 2.30 Wolverhampton - Aureate

Draw Section

Chepstow – 5f to 1mile – on the straight course there used to be a high draw bias and there have been a few signs recently that the ground under the high rail may be quicker again. It is worth watching the early races on the straight course to see if it is worth playing high draws in the last two races on the card.

Market Information (2000 - 2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. Qualifying race - 6.50 Chepstow

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

4:15 Lingfield Maria Nunziata** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

4:45 Lingfield Love In The Park* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

6:50 Chepstow Solemn* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

7:40 Windsor  Mamlakati** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

7:40 Windsor Mamlakati** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

8:10 Windsor Cumana Bay** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

8:10 Windsor Cumana Bay** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

8:40 Windsor Rocky's Pride** J Noseda favourites in maidens who finished 2nd LTO SR 60% ROI +11.5%

8:40 Windsor Rocky's Pride** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

9:10 Windsor Salybia Bay** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

9:10 Windsor Cayman Sky** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

9:20 Chepstow Caster Sugar** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

Negative Trainer Stats

2:15 Lingfield Guesswork Poor Sire Stat - Rock of Gibraltar on all weather female runners SR 1.8% loss -92.7%

4:00 Wolverhampton Captain's Paradise Poor Sire Stat - Rock of Gibraltar on all weather female runners SR 1.8% loss -92.7%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

2:30 Wolverhampton Saameq Poor LTO 1st stat - off track for 6 months since win and previous to that win off for 6 months or more SR 10.1% ROI -51.7%

8:10 Windsor Silent Hero Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Course Trainer Stats – please note that I have updated the trainer course stats for Windsor covering 2005 to the latest meeting in 2009.

Windsor trainer stats 2005-2009 (best strike rates)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

Profit

ROI

Sir M Stoute

30

114

26.3%

-£6.08

-5.3%

S Bin Suroor

16

71

22.5%

-£3.45

-4.9%

E McMahon

7

32

21.9%

+£22.13

+69.1%

H Cecil

5

25

20.0%

+£0.42

+1.7%

J Noseda

11

57

19.3%

+£35.24

+61.8%

M Jarvis

14

81

17.3%

+£25.38

+31.3%

G Butler

5

29

17.2%

+£37.50

+129.3%

R Hannon

81

474

17.1%

+£32.39

+6.8%

M Usher

10

59

17.0%

+£87.75

+148.7%

W Haggas

9

57

15.8%

-£16.67

-29.3%

B Hills

20

128

15.6%

-£18.80

-14.7%

J Gosden

13

84

15.5%

-£0.67

-36.5%

D Simcock

5

35

14.3%

+£18.25

+52.1%

M Bell

11

78

14.1%

-£33.45

-42.9%

G Margarson

6

43

14.0%

+£20.50

+47.7%

D Elsworth

14

102

13.7%

+£8.11

+8.0%

R Charlton

13

95

13.7%

-£28.10

-29.6%

A King

8

61

13.1%

+£8.50

+13.9%

P Winkworth

6

46

13.0%

+£59.25

+128.8%

Key Trainer Stats – this is a new section that will occur from time to time. The focus will be on one specific trainer who has a good record at the course in question.

R Hannon – Windsor record 2005 to now

2009 course record – 12 wins from 38 (SR 31.6%) ROI +9%

Race type comparison:

Race type

Wins

Runs

SR

Profit

ROI

2yo Maidens

23

148

15.5%

-£4.51

-3.0%

2yo Maiden (fillies only races)

7

Your first 30 days for just £1

38

18.4%

+£3.34

+8.8%

3yo Maidens

0

12

0%

-£12.00

-100%

3yo+ Maidens (inc. 3-4yo)

1

18

5.6%

-£16.27

-90.4%

Claimers

2

13

15.4%

-£3.10

-23.8%

Handicaps

41

217

18.9%

+£86.63

+39.9%

3yo only handicaps

19

93

20.4%

+£63.75

+68.5%

Novice races

4

15

26.7%

-£4.39

-29.3%

Nursery handicaps

3

29

10.3%

+£5.00

+17.2%

Sellers

2

11

18.2%

-£3.60

-32.7%

Market comparison:

Market Rank

Wins

Runs

SR

Profit

ROI

Favourite

32

85

37.7%

+£24.39

+28.7%

2nd Favourite

23

80

28.8%

+£33.50

+41.9%

3rd Favourite

9

56

16.1%

+£5.50

+9.8%

Excellent record for Hannon when Richard Hughes rides – SR 24% ROI +39.9%

Fairly poor record for Hannon with 2yo making their debut – SR 10.3% ROI -37.1%

Current Trainer Form

Last 7 Days (3 or More Wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Gask

3

8

37.5%

J Noseda

6

19

31.6%

R Hannon

11

38

28.9%

R Hollinshead

3

11

27.3%

J Quinn

4

17

23.5%

M Johnston

11

51

21.6%

D Simcock

3

14

21.4%

B Hills

3

15

20%

M Bell

3

16

18.8%

R Fahey

7

39

17.9%

I Semple

3

18

16.7%

K Ryan

4

28

14.3%

Sir M Stoute

3

22

13.6%

M Channon

5

46

10.9%

S Bin Suroor

3

28

10.7%

J Gosden

3

30

10%

Last 14 Days (4 or More Wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

S Williams

4

11

36.4%

J Noseda

9

31

29%

H Morrison

7

29

24.1%

D Simcock

5

23

21.7%

R Fahey

16

76

21.1%

M Bell

5

24

20.8%

M Johnston

17

84

20.2%

Sir M Stoute

6

30

20%

J Quinn

6

30

20%

R Hannon

14

74

18.9%

E Dunlop

5

31

16.1%

S Bin Suroor

5

34

14.7%

W Haggas

5

35

14.3%

B Meehan

6

45

13.3%

J Goldie

4

33

12.1%

G Swinbank

4

33

12.1%

K Ryan

5

43

11.6%

D Nicholls

5

48

10.4%

M Channon

8

80

10%

K R Burke

4

40

10%

Last 21 Days (4 or More Wins)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Noseda

10

36

27.8%

M Bell

7

32

21.9%

H Morrison

8

37

21.6%

L Cumani

7

33

21.2%

M Johnston

27

129

20.9%

Sir M Stoute

9

44

20.5%

R Fahey

21

106

19.8%

H Cecil

7

36

19.4%

B Millman

5

26

19.2%

J Quinn

7

42

16.7%

R Hannon

19

115

16.5%

G Swinbank

8

49

16.3%

D Simcock

5

31

16.1%

E Alston

5

33

15.2%

J Given

5

34

14.7%

W Haggas

6

43

14.0%

S Bin Suroor

6

44

13.6%

B Meehan

6

50

12.0%

B Hills

5

42

11.9%

E Dunlop

5

42

11.9%

J Goldie

6

51

11.8%

K R Burke

6

55

10.9%

M Channon

12

113

10.6%

M Dods

5

48

10.4%

D Nicholls

8

78

10.3%

P Evans

6

61

9.8%

P Cole

5

54

9.3%

K Ryan

5

66

7.6%

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

8:40 Windsor Rocky's Pride – Must be Favourite to Qualify.

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Racing Trends: Day 9 Update / Day 10 Information

Racing Trends - Day 9 Update 20th June 2009

Comments

Generally, a day for the bookies.

Day 10 Information – 21st June 2009

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2:10 Pontefract Jean Jeannie** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

3:40 Pontefract All The Aces** M Jarvis - top 2 in the betting at Pontefract - SR 54.3% ROI +70% (80% have either won or placed)

4:40 Pontefract Shemoli** M Jarvis - top 2 in the betting at Pontefract - SR 54.3% ROI +70% (80% have either won or placed)

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

3:10 Pontefract Persian Peril Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

3:10 Pontefract Full Speed Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

Hot Trainers

D Pipe 3 wins from 8 SR 37.5%

R Hannon 11 wins from 38 SR 29%

R Hollinshead 3 wins from 11 SR 27.3%

J J Quinn 4 wins from 18 SR 22.2%

M Johnston 11 wins from 51 SR 21.6%

R  Fahey 7 wins from 39 SR 18%

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Sunday Special: Get This ‘Trendy’ Service Gratis For 30 Days

Just a quick post, dear reader, to advise / remind you of a most comprehensive and best of all 'no charge' email service you can avail yourself of.

It's called Racing Trends, and some of you will have already seen it adorn the virtual walls of this 'ere blog over the past week.

Well, that fine David Renham, whose service it is, is allowing you to continue to follow the service for a full month without cost.

David is a noted racing journalist and published author, and his stats are an excellent weapon in the fight with the satchel-wielding bookies (or fellow punters on Betfair).

When you register, you'll get access to the following info daily:

- draw observations

- positive market statistics

- positive sire / draw / trainer stats (these are particularly worthy of note, I believe)

- top course trainers

- pace info

- in-form trainer info (also well worth noting)

- a special mention for any horse noted in more than one of the above sections.

As I said, it's a really comprehensive 'cheat sheet' for the day's racing and, whilst not a tipping service per se, it does help whittle down races, and point to certain animals.

Anyway, it won't cost you a bean to check it out and, if you don't like what you see, there will be no hard feelings. Just write to Dave or cancel it yourself, and there'll never be any expense incurred.

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(Sunday) Best,

Matt

Racing Trends: Day 8 Update / Day 9 Information

Racing Trends - Day 8 Update 19th June 2009

Comments

No joy from the “Draw” section. In the “Positive Market Stats” section, Tufton (11/4F) finished third. The “Positive Stats” section identified 20 horses of which Stellite – Won 14/1, Perfect Stride – Won 8/1, Time Machine Won 6/1 and King Pin - Won 10/3F delivered. The “Negative Stats” section was spot on with all of the horses identified being well beaten.

Day 9 Information - 20th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – low draws were back in charge yesterday with draw 4 beating draw 2 in the 7f handicap yesterday. Forecast paid handsomely. I would concentrate again on low draws in the Wokingham (preference to bottom 7 stalls); however would not put off anyone having a saver on high.

Remaining races that have draw bias potential have quite small fields so away from Ascot there is not much to get excited about draw wise.

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. The 4.45 Redcar is identified as a qualifying race

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.10 Newmarket Bravo Echo** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% ROI +28.4%

2.10 Newmarket Cyflymder** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

2.20 Redcar Pytheas M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f; SR23.2%; ROI +28.6%

2.30 Ascot Bikini Babe M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

2.30 Ascot Shakespearean M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

2.30 Ascot Step In Time M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

3.15 Newmarket Cosmopolitan** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% ROI +28.4%

3.15 Newmarket Respite* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.30 Redcar Spinning* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.45 Ascot Regal Parade* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.45 Ascot King's Apostle** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

3.50 Newmarket Green Beret** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% ROI +28.4%

4.20 Newmarket Boycott** J Gosden - 2yo maiden races at Newmarket; top 4 in the betting SR 28.2% ROI +49.6%

4.20 Newmarket Gold Diamond M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f SR23.2%; ROI +28.6%

4.25 Ascot Jimmy Styles** C Cox with P Robinson riding - 4yos and older horses in handicaps top 6 in the betting SR 29.8% ROI +146.7%

4.35 Ayr  Prospect Court* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.55 Newmarket Awesome Surprise** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

4.55 Newmarket Primaeval Pivotal sire system 8f or less; 5yo or younger; top 3 speed figure; SR 20% ROI +30%

4.55 Newmarket Primaeval* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.00 Ascot Dansili Dancer** C Cox with P Robinson riding - 4yos and older horses in handicaps top 6 in the betting SR 29.8% ROI +146.7%

5.20 Redcar Cardinal* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

7.05 Haydock Daisy Brown Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +115%

7.05 Haydock Sparking Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +115%

7.05 Haydock Pepper Lane Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +115%

Negative Trainer Stats

4:20 Newmarket Lanizza E Dunlop - POOR stat - 2yo males over 7f+ on debut SR 3% ROI loss -75.4%

7:20 Lingfield Jinksy Minx POOR sire stat - Piccolo 2yos over 7f+ SR 2% ROI loss -89%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

3.30 Redcar Spinning Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

4.45 Redcar Royal Dignitary Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

5.45 Ayr Toshi Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

7.35 Haydock Feelin Foxy Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO 5f hand stepped up to 6f here (age 4 or more) SR 10.1% ROI loss -35.7%

Royal Ascot

Due To time constraints I have not been able to shortlist in the four races mentioned. Those of you who want to create your own shortlist the best way is to use the summaries for each race.

4.20 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (6f – handicap) 3yo+

N.B there was a dead heat in 2003 so we have 21 winners to consider.

Positive Trends

Price: 14 of the last 21 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1.

Position LTO: 16 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 LTO.

Distance LTO: Horses dropping down a furlong from running over 7f LTO have a good record with 8 wins from 85 qualifiers for a profit of 76 pts (ROI +89.4%).

Career wins:18 of the last 21 winners had won at least three times in their careers.

Negative Trends

Second favourites (inc. joints): 0 from 30.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 5 winners from 300 runners for a loss of 190 pts (ROI -63.3%).

Distance LTO: Horses stepping up from 5f LTO have a very poor record with just 1 win from 130 runners.

Last 6 runs: Horses that have failed to finish 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last six runs have provided 0 winners from 112.

General Stats

Favourites: 2 wins from 20 for a loss of 5 pts (ROI -25%).

Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 34 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 9 from 205 runners (SR 4.4%); 5yos have won 7 from 140 runners (SR 5%); 6yos have won 4 from 99 runners (SR 4%); 7yos+ have won 1 from 99 (SR 1%).

Trends Summary: One of the top handicap sprints of the year and with an average of around 27 runners it is not easy! Horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 seem to offer the best value, assuming they have finished in the first four LTO. It is best to ignore horses that raced over 5f LTO, have not finished in the first two on at least one of their last six starts, and horses aged 7 or older. Using those five stats mentioned above would have found the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of all runners. One final positive trend worth noting is the good record of horses dropping down from 7f LTO.

5.00 Ascot Duke of Edinburgh – (1 mile 4f – handicap) 3yo+

Positive Trends

Market: 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 4 in the betting, although more importantly 10 of the last 13.

Position LTO: 13 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 3 LTO.

Distance winners: 14 of the last 20 winners had previously won at the distance.

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO produced 6 winners from just 36 qualifiersfor a profit of 21.5 pts (ROI +59.7%).

Negative Trends

Fitness: Horses off the track for 7 or more weeks have produced just 1 winner from 44.

Class LTO: 28 horses have dropped in class and all have lost. Only two have been placed (both finished 4th).

Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have produced just 2 winners from 151 for a loss of 96 pts (ROI -63.6%).

Sex: Fillies/mares have produced 1 winner from 38 for a loss of 27 pts (ROI -71.1%).

General Stats

Favourites: 2 wins from 22 for a loss of 11 pts (ROI -50%).

Age: 3yos have had only 3 runners who have all lost; 4yos have won 12 from 221 runners (SR 5.4%); 5yos have won 5 from 88 runners (SR 5.7%); 6yos+ have won 3 from 56 (SR 5.4%).

Trends Summary: The betting has been a good guide especially in the last few years and the winner is highly likely to come from the top 4 in the betting. With only 2 winners from 151 for horses priced 20/1 or bigger it is clear that several runners can be immediately discounted. Distance winners are around twice as likely to win than those who have not won over the distance and pay special attention to any horse that raced at Newmarket LTO.

2.05 Ascot – Hardwick Stakes (1m 4f– Group 2) 4yo+

Positive Trends

Position LTO: 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 3 LTO.

Career Wins: Horses with 3 or more career wins have won 14 of the last 20 races.

Career runs: Horses who have run 13 or more times in their careers have won 9 races from 41 qualifiers for a profit of 21.9 pts (ROI +53.3%).

Age: 5 year olds have an excellent record with 8 winners from 36 runners for a profit of 68 pts (ROI +189%).

Trainers: Mark Johnston has had 3 winners from just 10 runners.

Course winners: Course winners have a good record with8 wins from 37.

Negative Trends

Favourites (inc joints): 5 wins from 21 for a heavy loss of 10.8 pts (ROI -51.3%).

Trends Summary: The starting point should be horses that finished in the first 3 LTO and those who have won at least 3 races in their careers. From here take special note of 5 year olds, course winners and/or anything trained by Mark Johnston.

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Racing Trends: Day 7 Update / Day 8 Information

Racing Trends - Day 7 Update 18th June 2009

Comments

From the “Draw” section only Montiboli – Won 7/1 (second highest drawn in the 17.40 at Ripon) delivered. The majority of the remaining horses from the three highlighted races were well beaten. In the “Positive Market Stats” section, Mutamared (11/10F) finished last. The “Positive Stats” section identified 28 horses of which Requisite – Won 14/1 and Turnkey Won 4/1 delivered. Crux (3rd 25/1) and Canton Road (2nd 10/1) delivered some value to E/W backers.

Day 8 Information - 19th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – there seemed less in the draw yesterday, but in the 29 runner 7f handicap at 5.30 I would still concentrate on the bottom 5 or 6 stalls and to a lesser extent the top four or five.

Ayr (1 mile) in handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 50%

Middle third of the draw 28.1%

Top third of the draw 21.9%

Low draws have the call.

6.10 Ayr – 12 runners declared – best drawn horses drawn 1 - 4 are Scottys Future, Phantom Seranade, Rain Stops Play and Time to Regret.

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. The 4.30 Redcar is identified as a qualifying race.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

3.05 Ascot South Easter** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.30 Musselburgh Ask Dan** B Smart at Musselburgh - 2yo/3yos in handicaps 12/1 or shorter SR 34.6% ROI +155.8%

4.20 Ascot Stone of Scone* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot Pinpoint* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot Kingdom of Fife Sir Michael Stoute - male 4yos in 4yo+ handicaps SR 35.9% ROI +143%

4.20 Ascot Perfect Stride Sir Michael Stoute - male 4yos in 4yo+ handicaps SR 35.9% ROI +143%

4.55 Ascot Popmurphy Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

4.55 Ascot Stately Home Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

5.05 Redcar King Pin* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.20 Musselburgh Brut** D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

5.30 Ascot Six of Hearts* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.40 Redcar Half A Crown** D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

6.50 Goodwood Kapsiliat** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

7.25 Goodwood Jessica Hayllar** M Bell 2yo maidens in May / June that have already run + top 4 of betting – SR 35.8%; ROI +39.8%

8.10 Newmarket Transcend** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% (101 wins from 403) ROI +28.4%

8.10 Newmarket Transcend John Gosden - male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%;

8.10 Newmarket Countdown* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

8.40 Newmarket Time Machine** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% (101 wins from 403) ROI +28.4%

8.40 Newmarket Charger** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

8.40 Newmarket Cotillion** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

8.50 Ayr Stellite* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Negative Trainer Stats

14:10 Redcar Fol Wizard Poor Sire Stat - Piccolo 2yos over 7f+ SR 2% ROI loss -89%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

3:05 Ascot South Easter Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

4:45 Musselburgh Shunkawakhan Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

5:30 Ascot Mister Hardy Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

6:00 Newmarket Focail Eile Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

8:50 Ayr Imprimis Tagula Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Horse Noted in Two or More Sections

Transcend (8.10 Newmarket) – two separate trainer stats (needs to be top four in betting to match one of the two).


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Racing Trends: Day 6 Update / Day 7 Information

Racing Trends - Day 6 Update 17th June 2009

Comments

The identified Value Horse (Mac’s Power) Won 5/1 and the clear trends pick for the Royal Hunt Cup (Forgotten Voice) Won 4/1F were the highlights of the day when there was so much information to digest. There were also a couple of winners identified in the “Positive Stats” section namely, Piverina Won 5/1 and Farmer Giles Won 5/4F.

The Racing Trends service does supply a lot of information so I would suggest that the key to using the Racing Trends service successfully is being very selective in the races that you select to have a punt on,

Draw Section

The 8.10 Kempton (6f) was identified as a qualifying race where there was an identified trends bias that favoured horses in the top third of the draw.

Well drawn horses – Mac’s Power (drawn 12) – Won 5/1, Red Rossini (drawn 11) – WD 11/1, Doc Jones (drawn 10) – 10th 10/1, Satwa Street (drawn 9) – 5th 8/1

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

4.10 Hamilton – favourite and top weight was Northern Empire (5/2F) which dead-heated for second place.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

2.30 Ascot – Ocean's Minstrel – 15th 10/1

3.05 Ascot – Heaven Sent – 2nd 5/2

3.05 Ascot – Chantilly Tiffany– 4th 28/1

3.45 Ascot – Virtual – 6th 14/1

4.10 Hamilton – Brut – 5th 4/1 (Non qualifier as went off 3rd favourite).

4.20 Ascot – Dunn'o – 14th 14/1

4.20 Ascot – Luisant – 22nd 80/1

4.20 Ascot – Mia's Boy – 3rd 9/1

4.20 Ascot – Axiom – 6th 16/1

4.45 Hamilton – Istiqdaam – 4th 16/1

4.55 Ascot – Ceedwell– 3rd 12/1

4.55 Ascot – Lady Royal Oak– 13th 33/1

4.55 Ascot – Itwasonlyakiss – 12th 40/1

5.30 Ascot – Moneycantbuymelove – Won 9/2F

5.50 Hamilton – Piverina – Won 5/1

6.40 Kempton – Celtic Lass – 6th 10/1

6.40 Kempton – Opera Wings – NR

7.10 Kempton – Spiritual Treasure – 7th 13/2

7.20 Ripon – Farmer Giles – Won 5/4F

Pace Information

4.20 Ascot (1m) was identified.

Hold up horses have the edge which is no surprise as a straight mile is one of the hardest races to win from the front / close to the pace. Two horses drawn low are genuine hold up horses so will have the race run to suit – Docofthebay (drawn 3) – WD 14/1, Mia’s Boy (drawn 4) – 3rd 9/1.

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

Mia’s Boy (4.20 Ascot) – Pace + Sire Stats (going dependent to match the sire stat) – 3rd 9/1

Mac’s Power (8.10 Kempton) – Value horses + Draw) – Won 5/1

Royal Ascot

4.20 Ascot - The Royal Hunt Cup (1 mile all age handicap)

A clear trends pick was identified, Forgotten Voice – Won 4/1F

4.55 Ascot – Queen Mary (5f – Group 2) 2yo

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The conclusion was that that whoever started as favourite out of Rose Blossom – 7th 5/1 and Don’t Tell Mary – 10th 11/2 would be the pick. Meanwhile Lady of the Desert – 6th 11/2 is next best trends wise. The actual favourite at the off was Capercaillie, 4/1F which finished 4th.

Day 7 Information - 18th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – it is clear that days 1 and 2 have seen better ground near the stands’ rail low. I did say I had a preference for very low draws for Wednesday and they certainly held sway in the last 3 races – a gold mine for anyone who permed some of the lowest draws in forecasts and tricasts.

We have to assume that low will hold sway again on Thursday – interesting the big mile handicap (4.20) has some big priced runners drawn very low. Would be nice if the bias is strong enough to see the bottom four or five stalls fill the first two or three places!

4.20 Ascot – potentially best drawn horses (lowest 5) are River Captain, Satwa Laird, Cannwin, Tarzan and Brief Encounter.

Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 45.5%

Middle third of the draw 22.7%

Top third of the draw 31.8%

Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.

9.10 Warwick – has 14 runners declared. Best drawn are Turkish Locum (drawn 1), Diego Riveria (drawn 2), Highgate Cat (drawn 3) and Flute Magic (drawn 4).

Ripon 1 mile - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 12.5%

Middle third of the draw 18.8%

Top third of the draw 68.8%

It seems from the stats that horses from the top third have a very significant edge. However, it should be noted that there have only been 16 handicap races of 10 or more runners in the past four years which is a small sample. Having said that, traditionally high draws over this distance do have a decent edge.

5.40 Ripon – has 20 runners. Best to concentrate on the top six draws – Mr Fantozzi (drawn 20), Montiboli (drawn 19), Byron Way (drawn 18), Josephine Malines (drawn 17), Direct Debit (drawn 16) and Baltimore Jack (drawn 15).

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

3.20 Warwick is identified as a qualifying race.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Note: – there are several occasions when there are multiple runners noted in the same race.

2:30 Ascot Nosedive** - W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

2:45 Ripon Requisite* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot Leocorno* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot Take The Hint - Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

3.05 Ascot Mooakada - Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

3.20 Ripon Turnkey - D Nicholls - 5/6f claimers - off track between 8 and 28 days SR 32.2%; ROI +91%

3.20 Ripon Turnkey* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.10 Warwick Ensnare* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot Aurorian** - R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

4.55 Ascot Freemantle - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

5.10 Ripon Alanbrooke - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.10 Ripon Alanbrooke - Strong Sire Stats - Hernando 3yos at 12f+ on turf SR 23% ROI +72%

5.20 Warwick Magnitude* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.30 Ascot Topolski - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Topolski - M Johnston when running a horse sired by Peintre Celebre SR 30.4% ROI +64%; 11 of his 13 different runners have won at least once

5.30 Ascot Quai D'Orsay - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot  Kimberley Downs - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Fin Vin de Leu - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Takaatuf - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Johann Zoffany - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

5.30 Ascot Highland Glen - Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

5.40 Ripon Crux* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.40 Ripon Cross of Lorraine* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

6.30 Musselburgh Lord's Seat** - A Berry at Musselburgh - 2yo maidens top 2 in the betting SR 62.5% (10 from 16) ROI +117.5%

6.40 Leicester The Caped Crusader - Cape Cross male 2yos all races not debut SR 22.4% ROI +42.7%

6.40 Leicester The Mighty Mod - M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f SR 23.2%; ROI +28.6%

8.00 Musselburgh Storming Sioux** - W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

8.00 Musselburgh Storming Sioux - W Haggas June to October - 2 and 3yos off track for more than 6 weeks SR 24% ROI +55.4%

8.30 Musselburgh Inheritor** - B Smart at Musselburgh - 2yo/3yos in handicaps 12/1 or shorter SR 34.6% ROI +155.8%

8.40 Leicester Penolva - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

8.40 Leicester Galiotto - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

8.40 Leicester Canton Road - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ascot 1m (figures based on 20+ runner handicaps)

4.20 Ascot is scheduled to have 30 runners

Leaders 0.5

Prominent / chased leaders 0.65

Hold up / behind 1.35

Hold up horses have the edge as I said yesterday although the winner of Hunt Cup did actually race close up. Having said that he was probably a Group horse in a handicap and the next seven horses home were held up. Satwa Laird (drawn 3) looks well drawn and is a genuine hold up horse.

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

3.20 Ripon Turnkey – Trainer and Sire Stat (needs to be soft/heavy to perfectly match sire stat)

4.20 Ascot Satwa Laird – Draw and Pace

5.10 Ripon Alanbrooke – Sire Stat and Trainer stat

5.30 Ascot Topolski – Sire Stat and Trainer Stat

8.00 Musselburgh Storming Sioux – 2 different Trainer Stats (needs to be top 4 of the betting to match one of the two stats)

Royal Ascot

15.45 Ascot - Gold Cup (2½ miles – Group 1)

Trends wise Geordieland would be a good fit but for his age. I think this is a race to swerve trends wise.

4.20 Ascot – Britannia Stakes (1 mile – handicap) 3yo

The shortlist trends wise is Desert Creek, Roman Republic, Brief Encounter and Invisible Man. Taking the draw into account which I think we must, Brief Encounter looks the one.

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Racing Trends: Day 5 Update / Day 6 Information

Racing Trends - Day 5 Update 16th June 2009

Comments

Not a great deal to comment on. The high drawn horses maintained their success in the Thirsk 5f handicap (17.45) with M.Dod’s two horses going off at 5/1JF and filling the first 2 places drawn 19 and 15 respectively. The conclusions for the 3 Royal Ascot races did mention the winners.

Draw Section

Thirsk 5f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 20%

Middle third of the draw 16.7%

Top third of the draw 63.3%

Therefore horses from the top third have a decent edge. Having said that, in big fields when they split there is sometimes not much in it. I would focus on the four lowest and the four highest draws in the 5.45 (20 runners declared) – Twosheetstothewind (drawn 19) Won 5/1JF

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Aqlaam** (2:30 Ascot) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% – 3rd 10/1 (Non qualifier as went off 5th in the betting).

Jutland (2:50 Thirsk) M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f; SR 23.2%; ROI +28.6% – NR

Raine's Cross (4:20 Ascot) Cape Cross male 2yos all races not debut SR 22.4% ROI +42.7% – 12th 16/1

Stand And Fight (5:30 Ascot) - Sire stats - Invincible Spirit - 2yo turf non handicaps over 5f SR 18% ROI +13% – 14th 16/1

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80% – 16th 16/1

Half A Crown** (5:45 Thirsk) - D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4% – 9th 25/1

Camera Shy* (6:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35% – Won 11/4

Orsippus (6:30 Yarmouth) M Channon 3yo only sellers SR 24% ROI +20% – 14th 5/2F

Poppy N'penny** (7:00 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% – 3rd 16/1

Wasmi (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80% – 4th 20/1

Drift And Dream (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80% – Won 9/1

Victorian Art** (7:00 Yarmouth) M Magnusson - all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48% – 5th 7/4F

Magnitude* (8:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35% – 5th 9/1

Sea Cliff** (8:15 Newton Abbot) J O' Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 price 8/1 or shorter - SR 25% win & pl 53% ROI +20% – 4th 6/1

Baron Otto** (8:30 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% – 12th 12/1

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%

.

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46% – 16th 16/1

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Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Thirsk 5f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

5.45 Thirsk is scheduled to have 20 runners

Leaders 2.6

Prominent / chased leaders 1.0

Hold up / behind 0.5

Front runners have scored 2.6 times as often as they should over C&D. The best pace looks low with Malapropism – 16th 16/1 and Orpen’s Art – 11th 25/1 both likely to force the pace from the low draws. If low draws are competitive then Malapropism has good each way claims, and good potential for backing first and laying off in running.

Conflicting Stats – horses that have one positive and one negative stat.

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) – 16th 16/1

Royal Ascot

3.05 Ascot – first leg of the Global sprint Challenge

Dave Renham, wearing his old Drawn2win hat (a service I remember well), occasionally provides a race analysis of some decent sprint races. Dave has analysed all the runners and provided a commentary on them which I have excluded.

Conclusion – a tough call this, especially as we are unsure whether the draw will have any major bearing on the race. Amour Propre – 10th 4/1 just gets the nod for me over Scenic Blast – Won 11/4F

For the bigger price players, Dandy Man’s – 7th 20/1 record in the race means the early 38s on Betfair is tempting for a few shekels; likewise last year’s winner Equiano – 8th 14/1 at around 20s is in the same boat.

Key Trends

3.45 Ascot– St James’ Palace Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo

Conclusion - There is a clear trends pick in Mastercraftsman – Won 5/6F Looks likely to be short enough at Evens though.

4.20 Ascot – Coventry Stakes (6 furlongs – Group 2) 2yo

Conclusion - Red Jazz – 7th 11/2 and No Hubris – 6th 11/2 are two American bred sprinters worth considering from a trends perspective (won LTO and right price bracket too). Canford Cliffs – Won 7/4F the likely favourite though is respected and he ran a huge speed figure on debut at Newbury.

Day 6 Information - 17th June 2009

Value Horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Mac’s Power (8.10 Kempton)

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – The straight course at Ascot sees races from 5f through to 1m. In very big fields you occasionally see one side of the course favoured although it can be difficult to predict. A good example of a race where a draw bias existed was the Cisco Hong Kong Sprint Stakes over 5f run on 27th July 2008. The 26 runner race saw high draws totally dominating with Tom Laughter (drawn 23) winning at the tasty odds of 50/1. The next four horses home were drawn 27, 28, 25 and 26 (2 non runners). Likewise the big sprint of the year at Ascot (the Wokingham) showed a similar bias the previous year (23rd June ‘07) where the first four horses home all raced far side and were drawn 27, 23, 22 and 20 (26 ran / 2 non runners).

There have been examples of low draw bias as well as was shown in the Royal hunt Cup in 2008 (18th June) when the 29 runner race saw the first four home drawn 4, 1, 5 and 6.

There are of course several occasions when there appears no advantage to one side as was the case in the Wokingham in 2008 (21st June) when the first six horses home were drawn 28, 2, 23, 6, 5, and 26. Having said that middle draws seemed at a big disadvantage that day.

In medium sized fields, low draws occasionally hold the whip hand as was the case in the 17 runner Golden Jubilee Stakes over 6f (21st June ‘08). The first four horses home drawn 3, 1, 4 and 2.

Traditionally on soft or heavy ground there used to be a very strong high draw bias on the straight courses, especially in big fields. However, since the course has reopened in 2006 there have been only a handful of races on such going and hence it is difficult to make any assumptions at this point.

Looking at day 1 I reckon the ground is slightly quicker near the stands’ rail than the middle. Hence in medium sized field I’d prefer a lower draw over a higher one. The big 1m handicap Royal Hunt Cup (4.20) will see the horses stretch across the track. Difficult to know how quick the ground will be over the far side (high). Essentially I will be looking at the top 4 or 5 stalls and the bottom 4 or 5 stalls, with a slight preference to low.

Kempton 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2006 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 27.7%

Middle third of the draw 25.4%

Top third of the draw 46.9%

8.10 Kempton is a qualifying race.

Conclusion - the top third of the draw have a definite edge.

Well drawn horses – Mac’s Power (drawn 12), Red Rossini (drawn 11), Doc Jones (drawn 10), Satwa Street (drawn 9)

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats If they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

As usual I have decided to list the races where the above stat qualifies – then if any of those races the favourite is in the top four of the weights then he/she would qualify:

4.10 Hamilton

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.30 Ascot – Ocean's Minstrel - Pivotal sire system 8f or less; 5yo or younger; top 3 speed figure; SR 20% ROI +32%

2.30 Ascot – Ocean's Minstrel* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot – Heaven Sent* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot – Chantilly Tiffany* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.45 Ascot – Virtual* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.10 Hamilton – Brut** - D Barker; 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav; SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

4.20 Ascot – Dunn'o** - C Cox with P Robinson riding - 4yos and older horses in handicaps top 6 in the betting SR 29.8% ROI +146.7%

4.20 Ascot – Luisant* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot – Mia's Boy* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot – Axiom* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.45 Hamilton – Istiqdaam* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.55 Ascot – Ceedwell - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +85%

4.55 Ascot – Lady Royal Oak - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +85%

4.55 Ascot – Itwasonlyakiss - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +85%

5.30 Ascot – Moneycantbuymelove* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.50 Hamilton – Piverina* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

6.40 Kempton – Celtic Lass - M Jarvis and N Callan - 3yos in maidens SR 29.9% ROI +91%

6.40 Kempton – Opera Wings - Sir Michael Stoute - 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% ROI +20%

7.10 Kempton – Spiritual Treasure** - M Magnusson - all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%

7.20 Ripon – Farmer Giles** - M Bell 2yo maidens in May / June that have already run + top 4 of betting – SR 35.8%; ROI +39.8%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ascot 1m (figures based on 20+ runner handicaps)

4.20 Ascot is scheduled to have 31 runners

Leaders 0.5

Prominent / chased leaders 0.65

Hold up / behind 1.35

Hold up horses have the edge which is no surprise as a straight mile is one of the hardest races to win from the front / close to the pace. Two horses drawn low are genuine hold up horses so will have the race run to suit – Docofthebay (drawn 3), Mia’s Boy (drawn 4).

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

Mia’s Boy (4.20 Ascot) – Pace + Sire Stats (going dependent to match the sire stat)

Mac’s Power (8.10 Kempton) – Value horses + Draw

Royal Ascot

Two races that I look back at the trends and stats for the past 20 years:

4.20 Ascot - The Royal Hunt Cup (1 mile all age handicap)

Positive Trends

Recent win: Horses that have won at least one race in their last six have won 19 of the 20 races.

Age: Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 18 of the last 20 races.

Market: Second favourites have performed well with 4 wins from 20 runners for a profit of 16.5 pts (ROI +82.5%).

Draw: Horses drawn closest to either rail have had the advantage. 13 of the last 20 winners were drawn either in the top five stalls or the bottom six stalls.

Negative Trends

Age: Horses aged 6 or older have won just 2 races from 137 qualifiers (SR 1.5%) for a loss of 94 pts (ROI -68.6%).

Fitness: Horses that had been off the track for 15 days or less have won 4 races from 183 qualifiers for a loss of 93 pts (ROI -50.8%).

Weight: Horses in the top 4 of the weights (inc. joints) have provided 1 win from 85 runners.

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have won 2 races from 267 qualifiers for a loss of 182 pts (ROI -68.2%). Only 16 other runners managed to get placed. The last winner at such a price was way back in 1990.

Penalty carriers: 65 horses have run carrying a penalty for their last run, and just 1 has won (Macadamia in 2003).

Course LTO: 77 horses ran at Epsom LTO and they have produced just 1 winner (last year’s winner Mr Aviator broke a very long losing sequence).

General Stats

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 22 for a loss of 7 pts (ROI -31.9%). A further 5 favourites have been placed.

Trends Summary: 4 and 5 year olds have tended to dominate this race, but although they have won 90% of the races they have provided 75% of the total runners. Best positive trend is horses that have proven winning form in the last six races – they have provided 95% of the winners from 67% of the total runners. The draw has been a major factor as well with very high and very low numbers performing best. However, this is a race where the negative trends dominate and these should be used in an attempt to narrow down the field. Horses to avoid include 6 year olds or older, penalty carriers, top 4 in the weights and any horse priced 33/1 or bigger. Using these trends should help you narrow down the field to a much more manageable size.

Interestingly there is clear trends pick and that is the likely favourite Forgotten Voice.


4.55 Ascot – Queen Mary (5f – Group 2) 2yo

Positive Trends

Favourites (inc. joints): 7 wins from 21 for a profit of 5 pts (ROI +23.9%).

Market: 15 of the last 20 winners came from the top four in the betting.

Price: 14 of the last 20 winners were priced in single figures.

Position LTO: 16 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Distance winners: 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won over 5f.

Topspeed: Racing Post’s speed ratings Topspeed has secured 6 wins in the last 16 renewals from his top rated runner. Backing all top rated runners during this period would have produced a profit of 9.5 pts (ROI +52.8%).

Negative Trends

Price: There has been just 1 wins from 131 qualifiers for horses priced 25/1 or bigger.

Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, but essentially this is still the first big sprint target for 2yo fillies. Last time out winners have produced 80% of the winners so this seems a starting point. Favourites and the top four in the betting have a good record and they should be the next focus. The top rated runner from Topspeed have a good record so these runners deserve respect.

Whoever starts favourite out of Rose Blossom and Don’t Tell Mary would be the pick. Meanwhile Lady of the Desert is next best trends wise.

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Racing Trends: Day 4 Update / Day 5 Information

Racing Trends - Day 4 Update 15th June 2009

Comments

Overall not a very profitable day due to seconditus, however I would just like to reiterate that this is not a pure tipping service. There is no suggestion that all noted horses should be backed. The information should be used to guide you in examining races that may provide particular value from a betting and hopefully winning perspective. Matt has arranged a month’s free trial with Racing Trends and I would urge all readers to avail themselves of this.

From the “Draw Section” very unlucky in the Warwick 21:10 as Den’s Gift was 2nd, beaten a nose. However, in the Warwick 19:40 the lowest drawn horses were trounced with the highest drawn, Sarasota Sunshine (drawn 15) Won 5/1F with the second highest drawn, Itsher (drawn 13) second 6/1.

Again, unlucky in the race identified in the “Market Information” section as the qualifying horse, Captain Jacksparra was beaten a short head.

In the “Positive Stats” section 6 horses (only 5 ran) were identified for 19.10 at Warwick with the 2 highest drawn Deal (drawn 10) winning and Aalsmeer (drawn 9) coming second.

Finally, from the “Pace Information” section a disappointing showing from Bees River which was 8th 10/1.

Draw Section

Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 45.5%

Middle third of the draw 22.7%

Top third of the draw 31.8%

Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.

9.10 Warwick – has 12 runners declared. Lowest two draws and hence the best drawn are Kelamon (drawn 1) - NR and Den’s Gift (drawn 2) – 2nd 11/4F (beaten a nose).

Warwick 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 73.3%

Middle third of the draw 26.7%

Top third of the draw 0%

Conclusion - Low draws seem to have a huge advantage, with high draws having a dreadful time. However, it should be noted that there were only 15 qualifying races during the 4-year period so it is small sample to be fully confident in.

7.40 Warwick – has 17 runners declared. The best drawn are Bees River (drawn 1) – 8th 10/1, Milly Rose (drawn 2) – 13th 20/1, Top Flight Splash (drawn 3) – 7th 10/1, Peninsula Girl (drawn 4) – 6th 16/1

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. A qualifying race today is the 3.15 Carlisle. Captain Jacksparra (2nd in the weights) 2nd 7/2JF (beaten a short head)

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Darcy's Pride (3:45 Carlisle) D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd favourite (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4% - 10th 16/1

April Fool (6:00 Windsor) Positive Sire Stats on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35% - 9th 8/1

There are 6 horses noted in the same race – looks a potentially tight knit maiden

Totally Invincible (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13% - 4th 33/1

Deal (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13% - Won 16/1

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) must be in the top 4 in the betting - SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% - 5th 8/1

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80% - 5th 8/1

Satin Princess (7:10 Warwick) Strong Sire Stats SR 22.5%; ROI +35% - 8th 66/1

Exceed Power (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80% - NR

Aalsmeer (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13% - 2nd 8/11F

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Warwick 6f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

7.40 is scheduled to have 17 runners

Leaders 3.3

Prominent / chased leaders 0.95

Hold up / behind 0.55

Front runners have scored more three as often as they should over C&D. Bees River has the right pace profile having led in 4 of her last 5 starts and is also ideally drawn in 1 to attack. The other positive is jockey Richard Mullen has the best strike rate of all jockeys on front running sprinters – hence he is a good judge of pace.

Horse Noted in Two or More Sections

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) – Sire Stats and Trainer Stat - 5th 8/1

Bees River (7.40 Warwick) – Pace and Draw – 8th 10/1

Day 5 Information - 16th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f - 1m – The straight course at Ascot sees races from 5f through to 1m. In very big fields you occasionally see one side of the course favoured although it can be difficult to predict. A good example of a race where a draw bias existed was the Cisco Hong Kong Sprint Stakes over 5f run on 27th July 2008. The 26 runner race saw high draws totally dominating with Tom Laughter (drawn 23) winning at the tasty odds of 50/1. The next four horses home were drawn 27, 28, 25 and 26 (2 non runners). Likewise the big sprint of the year at Ascot (the Wokingham) showed a similar bias the previous year (23rd June ‘07) where the first four horses home all raced far side and were drawn 27, 23, 22 and 20 (26 ran / 2 non runners).

There have been examples of low draw bias as well as was shown in the Royal hunt Cup in 2008 (18th June) when the 29 runner race saw the first four home drawn 4, 1, 5 and 6.

There are of course several occasions when there appears no advantage to one side as was the case in the Wokingham in 2008 (21st June) when the first six horses home were drawn 28, 2, 23, 6, 5, and 26. Having said that middle draws seemed at a big disadvantage that day.

In medium sized fields, low draws occasionally hold the whip hand as was the case in the 17 runner Golden Jubilee Stakes over 6f (21st June ‘08). The first four horses home drawn 3, 1, 4 and 2.

Traditionally on soft or heavy ground there used to be a very strong high draw bias on the straight courses, especially in big fields. However, since the course has reopened in 2006 there have been only a handful of races on such going and hence it is difficult to make any assumptions at this point.

It will be interesting to see how the draw pans out at this meeting.

Thirsk 5f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 20%

Middle third of the draw 16.7%

Top third of the draw 63.3%

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Therefore horses from the top third have a decent edge. Having said that, in big fields when they split there is sometimes not much in it. I would focus on the four lowest and the four highest draws in the 5.45 (20 runners declared).

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Aqlaam** (2:30 Ascot) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Jutland (2:50 Thirsk) M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f; SR 23.2%; ROI +28.6%

Raine's Cross (4:20 Ascot) Cape Cross male 2yos all races not debut SR 22.4% ROI +42.7%

Stand And Fight (5:30 Ascot) - Sire stats - Invincible Spirit - 2yo turf non handicaps over 5f SR 18% ROI +13%;

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80%

Half A Crown** (5:45 Thirsk) - D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

Camera Shy* (6:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Orsippus (6:30 Yarmouth) M Channon 3yo only sellers SR 24% ROI +20%

Poppy N'penny** (7:00 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Wasmi (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80%

Drift And Dream (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80%

Victorian Art** (7:00 Yarmouth) M Magnusson - all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%

Magnitude* (8:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Sea Cliff** (8:15 Newton Abbot) J O' Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 price 8/1 or shorter - SR 25% win & pl 53% ROI +20%

Baron Otto** (8:30 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%.

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Thirsk 5f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

5.45 Thirsk is scheduled to have 20 runners

Leaders 2.6

Prominent / chased leaders 1.0

Hold up / behind 0.5

Front runners have scored 2.6 times as often as they should over C&D. The best pace looks low with Malapropism and Orpen’s Art both likely to force the pace from the low draws. If low draws are competitive then Malapropism has good each way claims, and good potential for backing first and laying off in running.

Conflicting Stats – horses that have one positive and one negative stat

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot)

Royal Ascot

3.05 Ascot – first leg of the Global sprint Challenge

Dave Renham, wearing his old Drawn2win hat (a service I remember well), occasionally provides a race analysis of some decent sprint races. Dave has analysed all the runners and provided a commentary on them which I have excluded.

Conclusion – a tough call this, especially as we are unsure whether the draw will have any major bearing on the race. Amour Propre just gets the nod for me over Scenic Blast.

For the bigger price players, Dandy Man’s record in the race means the early 38s on Betfair is tempting for a few shekels; likewise last year’s winner Equiano at around 20s is in the same boat.

Key Trends

3.45 Ascot– St James’ Palace Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo

Positive Trends

Favourites: There have been 9 winning favourites from 20 for a small profit of 4.3 pts (ROI +21.5%).

Market: The top 4 in the betting have provided 17 of the last 20 winners (18 of the last 20 winners priced 9/1 or shorter).

Position LTO: 10 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Last race: In the last 12 renewals 6 of the winners had raced in both the English and the Irish Guineas.

Proven class: 8 of the last 14 winners had previously won a Group 1 race. Also the last 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race on their most recent start.

Trainers: Aidan O’ Brien has had 5 winners, 3 seconds and 4 thirds from 24 runners. Indeed he had the 1-2-3 in 2007 and the winner in 2008.

Negative Trends

Price: There have been just 1 win from 74 qualifiers for horses priced 12/1 or bigger.

Trends Summary: The market is an excellent guide with 9 winning favourites and 18 of the last 20 winners being priced in single figures. This race is often a race for horses with proven form in Group 1 races. Finally, runners from Aidan O’ Brien’s stable are definitely worth close examination thanks to his excellent record in the race.

Conclusion - There is a clear trends pick in Masterofthehouse. Looks likely to be short enough at Evens though.

4.20 Ascot – Coventry Stakes (6 furlongs – Group 2) 2yo

Positive Trends

Favourites (inc. joints): 10 wins from 25 for a profit of 11.1 pts (ROI +44.6%).

Price: 18 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: 19 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Breeding: US breds are worth noting with 8 winners in the last 17 races. In those 17 races they have provided 47% of the winners from only 22% of the total runners.

Trainers: Irish stables have a good record in this race with 6 wins from just 23 runners for a profit of 35.1 pts (ROI +152.7%).

Negative Trends

Price: There has been just 2 win from 207 qualifiers for horses priced 10/1 or bigger. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a loss of 169 pts (ROI – 81.6%).

Fitness: Horses returning to the track within 15 days of their last run have seen 65 consecutive losers going back 17 years.

Maidens: 61 maidens have lined up – all have been beaten and only 3 have been placed (all third).

Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, but essentially this is still the target for many of the best 2yo sprinters. Hence, age-old trends are likely to be worth following. One very strong stat worth noting is that 19 of the last 20 winners won LTO. It is also a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and 128 of the 20 winners being priced in single figures. Irish raiders have an excellent record and deserve great respect. American bred horses do well and although they did not win in ’08 they had the 2nd and 3rd.

Conclusion - Red Jazz and No Hubris are two American bred sprinters worth considering from a trends perspective (won LTO and right price bracket too). Canford Cliffs the likely favourite though is respected and he ran a huge speed figure on debut at Newbury

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Racing Trends: Day 3 Update / Day 4 Sample

Racing Trends - Day 3 Update 14th June 2009

Comments

From the “Positive Stats” section there was 1 winner, 2 non-runners and a couple of near misses. The top-rated in the “Sample Rated Race” was second.

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Brisbane (2:55 Doncaster – must be in the top 3 in the betting – 7th 4/1

Eton Rifles (3:30 Doncaster) Positive sire stats – NR

Interdiamonds (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats – 2nd 3/1

Racing Hero (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats – Won 7/2

Penolva (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats – NR

Jachol (4:45 Salisbury) – 2nd 11/2

Negative Stats

None identified.

Sample Rated Race

5.10 Doncaster (Long distance)

Isabelonabicycle 105 – 2nd 9/4
Miss Keck 105 – NR
Forrest Flyer 103 – 8th 6/1
Rose Bien 102 – 5th 4/1
Sir Sandicliffe 102 – 6th 6/1
Monte Pattino 101 – NR
Fistral 101 – 7th 7/1

Day 4 Sample - 15th June 2009

As Matt has arranged with Racing Trends that geegeez blog readers can avail themselves of a month’s free trial, then from today until the end of the review period (21st June) I will include the majority of information contained within the Racing Trends daily mail(s).

Draw Section

Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

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Bottom third of the draw 45.5%

Middle third of the draw 22.7%

Top third of the draw 31.8%

Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.

9.10 Warwick – has 12 runners declared. Lowest two draws and hence the best drawn are Kelamon (drawn 1) and Den’s Gift (drawn 2).

Warwick 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 73.3%

Middle third of the draw 26.7%

Top third of the draw 0%

Conclusion - Low draws seem to have a huge advantage, with high draws having a dreadful time. However, it should be noted that there were only 15 qualifying races during the 4-year period so it is small sample to be fully confident in.

7.40 Warwick – has 17 runners declared. The best drawn are Bees River (drawn 1), Milly Rose (drawn 2), Top Flight Splash (drawn 3), Peninsula Girl (drawn 4)

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. A qualifying race today is the 3.15 Carlisle.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Darcy's Pride (3:45 Carlisle) D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd favourite (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

April Fool (6:00 Windsor) Positive Sire Stats on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

There are 6 horses noted in the same race – looks a potentially tight knit maiden

Totally Invincible (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%

Deal (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) must be in the top 4 in the betting - SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80%

Satin Princess (7:10 Warwick) Strong Sire Stats SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

Exceed Power (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80%

Aalsmeer (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Warwick 6f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

7.40 is scheduled to have 17 runners

Leaders 3.3

Prominent / chased leaders 0.95

Hold up / behind 0.55

Front runners have scored more three as often as they should over C&D. Bees River has the right pace profile having led in 4 of her last 5 starts and is also ideally drawn in 1 to attack. The other positive is jockey Richard Mullen has the best strike rate of all jockeys on front running sprinters – hence he is a good judge of pace.

Horse Noted in Two or More Sections

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) – Sire Stats and Trainer Stat

Bees River (7.40 Warwick) – Pace and Draw

Racing Trends: Day 2 Update / Day 3 Sample

Racing Trends - Day 2 Update 13th June 2009

Comments

A bit of a mixed bag on the sample I provided however, and in all fairness to the Racing Trends service, they identified Swiss Diva (Won 10/1) and Mutawarath (Won 6/1) within the “Postive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw) section of their daily message.

The “Negative Stats” were, with the exception of Another Try (Won 4/1), bang on the money with identifying horses to avoid or possibly lay.

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Victorian Art (2:15 Bath) must be in the top 3 in the betting – 2nd 3/1

Head Down (2:20 Sandown) must be favourite – 3rd 9/2 (Non qualifier as not the favourite)

Triple Aspect (3:25 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting – Won 15/8F

Capacity (4:20 York) – 5th 15/8F

Cotillion (4:35 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting - NR

Wild Rhubarb (5:10 Sandown) must be in the top 6 in the betting – 3rd 11/4

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Negative Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

The Two G's (5:50 Lingfield) Poor Sire Stat - non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3% - WD 100/1

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%

Falpiase (2.05 York) -  Poor LTO 1st stat - off track for 6 months since win and previous to that win off for 6 months or more SR 10.1% ROI -51.7% - 10th 33/1

Riguez Dancer (2.05 York) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - 18th 12/1

Harry Up (5.05 Bath) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - 4th 7/1

Another Try (6.20 Lingfield) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - Won 4/1

Hot Trainers – trainers that have had 3 or more winners in the last 2 weeks with a strike rate of 20%+

Cumani 36%, M Jarvis 33%, Swinbank 26%, Haggas 25%, Wall 25%, King (jumps) 24%, Vaughan 23%, Fahey 21%, Bell 21%, Portman 21%, Johnston 20%, Noseda 20%, Evans 20%, Howard Johnson 20%

Day 3 Sample - 14th June 2009

Today I have decided to include all of the entries from the “Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw) section of the Racing Trends daily message.

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Brisbane (2:55 Doncaster – must be in the top 3 in the betting

Eton Rifles (3:30 Doncaster) Positive sire stats

Interdiamonds (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats

Racing Hero (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats

Penolva (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats

Jachol (4:45 Salisbury)

Negative Stats

None identified.

Sample Rated Race

5.10 Doncaster (Long distance)

Isabelonabicycle 105
Miss Keck 105
Forrest Flyer 103
Rose Bien 102
Sir Sandicliffe 102
Monte Pattino 101
Fistral 101

Hot Trainers – trainers that have had 3 or more winners in the last 2 weeks with a strike rate of 20%+

Makin 67%, P Nicholls (jumps) 36%, Noseda 31%, Swinbank 30%, M Jarvis 29%, Morrison 29%, Stoute 26%, E Williams (jumps) 25%, Bowen (jumps) 25%, Given 24%, Johnston 23%, Vaughan 23% Fahey 23%, Bell 21%, King (jumps) 21%,

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